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Nick Madrigal Headed For IL With Separated Shoulder

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Just-promoted White Sox infielder Nick Madrigal is headed directly to the injured list. He has been diagnosed with a separated shoulder, GM Rick Hahn told reporters including James Fegan of The Athletic (Twitter link).

Fortunately, it sounds as if the prognosis is generally good. Madrigal could return to action by the end of the month, Hahn says. It is still possible he’ll also require surgery after the campaign ends.

The South Siders also reported rather promising news on both Carlos Rodon and Reynaldo Lopez. They’re both dealing with shoulder problems but don’t appear to have structural damage. In each case, a return to the MLB rotation could be several weeks away.

Hahn further weighed in on veteran slugger Edwin Encarnacion. He’s said to be dealing with some SC joint inflammation. It’s a day to day situation at the moment, so it sounds as if the hope is Encarnacion won’t be out for any notable stretch.

White Sox Place Carlos Rodon On Injured List, Designate Luis Alexander Basabe

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The White Sox have placed left-hander Carlos Rodon on the 10-day injured list due to left shoulder soreness, per a team announcement. In his place, they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Brady Lail from their alternate training site. Outfield prospect Luis Alexander Basabe was designated for assignment to open space on the 40-man roster for Lail. In other Sox news, MLBTR has learned that they’ll add right-handed pitching prospect Andrew Dalquist, their 2019 third-round pick, to the 60-man player pool.

Rodon exited last night’s start early after displaying a worrying drop in velocity. The former No. 3 overall pick came out firing with fastballs in the 91-93 mph range in the first inning but topped out at just under 86 mph in the second inning. For a pitcher who has averaged better than 93 mph in his career with the heater, that type of drop is alarming — particularly given that he’s only just returning from 2019 Tommy John surgery. The Sox haven’t provided a more in-depth diagnosis or timeline for his recovery, though they’ll presumably provide more info the next time GM Rick Hahn or manager Rick Renteria meets with reporters.

As for Basabe, the 23-year-old was at one point a well-regarded outfield prospect. He joined the White Sox organization in the Chris Sale blockbuster, although he was a clear third piece behind headliners Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. (Righty Victor Diaz was also sent to Chicago in that swap.) Basabe had a miserable first year with the White Sox before rebounding to hit .258/.354/.445 with 15 homers, 21 doubles, eight triples and 16 steals between Class-A Advanced and Double-A in 2018.

Unfortunately, things didn’t go well for Basabe in a second stint in the Double-A Southern League this past season. In 291 plate appearances, he slashed just .246/.324/.336 with a glaring 29.2 percent strikeout rate. The Southern League is a pitcher-friendly setting, but Basabe’s overall output was nevertheless below the league average. His strikeout totals and continued middling success rate on stolen bases — 60.4 percent over the past two seasons — surely worked against him as well.

Basabe can still be optioned for the remainder of the 2020 season, but he’ll be out of minor league options in 2021. Given his pedigree and the bit of flexibility he still carries as an optionable player in 2020, another team could have interest in taking a flier on him. However, he’s looked mostly overmatched at the Double-A level, so there’s a chance the Sox could succeed in passing him through waivers and keep him in the organization without requiring a 40-man spot.

As for Dalquist, he’s only pitched three innings with the White Sox’ Rookie-level affiliate, so he won’t be viewed as a 2020 option. Still, there’s plenty of value in allowing the 19-year-old to work with the team’s staff and other more experienced players at the satellite site. He ranks seventh among ChiSox farmhands at Baseball America and 12th at both MLB.com and FanGraphs, so it’s not a surprise that the front office wants to continue to get him some valuable developmental reps in the only setting that’s really available to them this season.

Carlos Rodon Departs With Shoulder Soreness

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8:33pm: Rodon experienced shoulder soreness, the team announced. He also reported pain in the neck area, James Fegan of The Athletic tweets.

8:16pm: White Sox starter Carlos Rodon left his start today after just two innings. The lefty’s fastball velocity dropped precipitously in his second frame, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy observes on Twitter.

It’s too soon to tell what caused the velo drop, but the South Siders obviously were concerned enough to give a quick hook after just 26 pitches. Rodon allowed three hits and one earned run before departing.

Rodon, 27, already turned in one rough outing to open the season. He had been hoping for a full campaign after missing significant time due to Tommy John surgery. Rodon can be controlled through arbitration for one more season after the 2020 campaign.

That TJ procedure and an earlier shoulder surgery provide a worrisome backdrop to the developments this evening. There are obviously quite a few other potential explanations for a sudden loss of arm speed, but that recent history suggests some added cause for concern.

The Slow Decline Of A Former Top-3 Pick

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With the third overall pick in the 2014 draft, the Chicago White Sox selected Carlos Rodon out of North Carolina State. Rodon was a consideration for the top overall pick in the draft, but the Astros and Marlins each went with a high school arm in Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek. As the top college arm in the draft, Rodon came with high expectations and a presupposed shorter timetable for reaching the majors.

Sure enough, it didn’t take Rodon long to reach the majors. He was the second-fastest from the draft class to make his debut, trailing only Brandon Finnegan of the Royals (debuted in September of 2014). Rodon made his debut in 2015, along with other top-10 draft picks from 2014 like Kyle Schwarber of the Cubs, Aaron Nola of the Phillies, and Michael Conforto of the Mets. Rodon came out of the gate hot, going 9-6 in 23 starts with a 3.75 ERA/3.87 FIP.

Rodon has now played parts of five professional seasons with the White Sox, but he has yet to put together a complete campaign. All in all, he’s largely been a disappointment. For his career, he’s 29-31 with a 4.08 ERA/4.25 ERA with 8.8 K/9 versus 3.9 BB/9 across 529 innings. Rodon’s numbers fit comfortably at the back end of a rotation, but the White Sox hoped for much more out of Rodon.

Rodon’s track record cannot be separated from his injury history. A sprained wrist in 2016, biceps bursitis in 2017, shoulder inflammation when he returned in 2017 that bled into the 2018 season, and then Tommy John surgery that ended his 2019 season after just 7 starts. It’s been a rough road since making his debut.

Entering 2020, the 27-year-old Rodon is a legitimate afterthought. He’s lost velocity over the years, with his four-seamer peaking early in his career with a 94.2 mph average and dropping to 91.4 mph over his seven starts of 2019. He’s gone away from the sinker that was his trademark early on, relying more and more on a fastball-slider mix that profiles more like the repertoire of a late-inning reliever. As he returns from Tommy John surgery, it’s hard to know what kind of pitcher Rodon will be.

Because of the delay to the 2020 season, however, he will be healthy and ready to go when/if the seasons starts, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. That’s good news for Rodon and the White Sox, though it’s unclear if there’s room for Rodon in the rotation. Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel are locked into the first two spots in the rotation. Gio Gonzalez was given a $5MM contract to do what Rodon hasn’t been able to: provide innings. For the other two rotation spots, Rodon will have to beat out a pair of young arms in Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Cease.

Lopez, 26, has taken his turn every fifth day for the last two seasons in Chicago, but the results haven’t been tremendous (4.64 ERA/4.83 FIP) – and he’s just a year younger than Rodon. Cease, 24, made his debut last year and struggled, but he remains a promising, hard-throwing righty. They’re slotted into the rotation for now, but there’s never been more uncertainty heading into a season than we face in 2020. Rodon could very well push for a rotation slot, but his future is no longer guaranteed. Michael Kopech could also join the fray, as Van Schouwen notes that the former Red Sox farmhand should be recovered from his own Tommy John surgery.

The fact is, the rotation is the biggest question mark of the White Sox roster heading into 2020 – despite the high-ceiling potential therein. Given the bizarre circumstances of the current climate, the bigger question is how much rope Chicago will give their young arms. With a shortened season and expanded playoffs, the White Sox have increased expectations. Fans will expect the Southsiders to join the crowded playoff field. To that end, the early games will matter like never before. A guy returning from injury like Rodon won’t have the leeway to round himself into shape. What’s worse, he might not have minor league games to provide that extra runway either.

If Rodon can come back as effective as pre-surgery, he won’t be the ace that some imagined, but he can hang in a rotation. Whether he’ll get that opportunity in Chicago is unclear. Injuries take their toll, and Rodon has been through the wringer. Whether through side sessions or spring training 2.0, Rodon will have to prove he’s ready to contribute.

If the season takes place, Rodon will have just one more season of arbitration eligibility before reaching free agency, and the White Sox will have to decide whether it’s worth giving him a raise on the $4.45MM (full-scale rate) he’s due in 2020. Rodon is still young enough to turn things around in Chicago, but the injuries are piling up, and time is running out.

Carlos Rodon On Schedule In Tommy John Rehab

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White Sox southpaw Carlos Rodon is “on schedule” in his rehab from last May’s Tommy John surgery, the lefty himself tells Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. Rodon is throwing three times per week, including two bullpen sessions, and could be ready to face live hitters within a matter of weeks. Rodon believes it’s “realistic” that he’d be ready to pitch in a game setting by June, although we of course don’t yet know when (or if) games will be resuming.

A healthy Rodon would be a boost to an already improved White Sox rotation, and if he does indeed prove ready to pitch in a game setting from the get-go or shortly into a delayed season, that’d be of particular benefit to the Sox given what’s likely to be a condensed schedule featuring frequent doubleheaders. Currently, the White Sox are set to rely on Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Dylan Cease, Gio Gonzalez and Reynaldo Lopez, but the delayed start to the year could drop Rodon into the mix before long and could also allow prized prospect Michael Kopech to join the fray earlier than anticipated. Kopech, who is returning from Tommy John surgery of his own (Sept. 2018), did make it into a spring game and pitched one inning before play was halted.

It’s a group that’s teeming with ability but lacking in terms of certainty. Giolito, the former first-round pick and uber-prospect broke out with a huge showing in 2019 and looks like the leader of the staff after tossing 176 2/3 innings of 3.41 ERA ball with 11.6 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9. Even he only has one successful season under his belt, though.

Keuchel is, of course, a steady presence in the rotation but looks more like an innings eater now than the ground-ball savant who captured a Cy Young Award back in 2015. Gonzalez was sharp for Milwaukee last year but averaged barely 4 2/3 innings per start. Some of that is due to the atypical way in which the Brewers deploy their pitchers, but he’s never been known as an efficient starter.

Beyond that trio, each of Cease, Lopez and Kopech have been considered among the game’s premier overall prospects at times. Lopez hasn’t really delivered on that hype outside of a 2018 season that saw him post a 3.91 ERA with concerning peripherals that pointed to regression — which is indeed what happened in 2019. Cease’s impressive fastball and swing-and-miss ability was on display in his 2019 debut, but so were his difficulties in locating the ball. Kopech has the pedigree and potential of a front-of-the-rotation arm but has yet to harness his own control and didn’t pitch at all in 2019 while rehabbing.

In terms of raw talent, it’s hard to find a better collection of young starters who are all on the same big league radar, but much of that potential remains untapped. As such, the return of a veteran arm like Rodon would be particularly welcome. He may not have quite reached the heights that some fans had hoped when he was drafted third overall in 2014, but he’s compiled 529 career innings with a 4.08 ERA and nearly a strikeout per frame. Getting back into games will be of particular importance for him on a personal level as well, given that Rodon is controlled only through the 2021 season and could use all the opportunities he can get to reestablish himself prior to free agency in the 2021-22 offseason.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the American League’s settlements in this post and split off a separate one for NL settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • Newly acquired Angels righty Dylan Bundy receives a $5MM salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). He had projected at a $5.7MM price tag. Teammate Hansel Robles gets $3.85MM, per Heyman, just shy of his $4MM projection.
  • The Yankees have worked out deals with all of their eligible players. The team has a hefty $8.5MM pact with Aaron Judge, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter. Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery have also agreed to terms, the former at $1.275MM and the latter at $805K, per Heyman (Twitter links).
  • The Twins announced that they struck deals with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. Jon Heyman of MLB Network followed up with salary terms (all links to Twitter). May earns $2,205,000; Rogers takes home $4.45MM; Rosario lands at $7.75MM; and Buxton receives $3.075MM. While the first and last of those land rather close to the projected amount, Rogers got $550K more and Rosario got $1.15MM less than the calculators predicted.
  • Shortstop Carlos Correa settled with the Astros for $8MM, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Righty Brad Peacock lands at a $3.9MM salary, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The former went for more than his $7.4MM projection, while the latter ended up shy of the $4.6MM mark produced by the computers. The ’Stros also have agreed with closer Roberto Osuna as well, per an announcement. It’s a $10MM deal, slotting in just $200K shy of his projection, per Rome (via Twitter).
  • The Orioles have a deal with outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. It’s for $4.75MM, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter), well south of the $5.7MM projection.
  • Outfielder Jorge Soler has agreed to a $7.3MM deal with the Royals, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That’s well off of the $11.2MM that MLBTR’s model projected, though it is likely that the cause of the gulf lies in the interpretation of the correct baseline to start from in building Soler’s salary. He’s in the 4+ service class but had been playing on the original deal he signed out of Cuba.
  • The Tigers have a deal in place with southpaw Matthew Boyd, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $5.3MM, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). That falls comfortably below the $6.4MM, suggesting that Boyd’s camp was concerned with the way his suboptimal ERA would play in the arb process. Fellow lefty starter Daniel Norris will earn $2.96MM, McCosky tweets.

Earlier Settlements

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White Sox Claim Jimmy Cordero

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The White Sox have claimed righty Jimmy Cordero off waivers from the Mariners, per club announcements. Southpaw Carlos Rodon was shifted to the 60-day IL to create 40-man space.

Cordero has now moved three times already this season. He started out with the Nationals, who had employed him for a few years after claiming him from the Phillies a few years back, before brief stints with the Blue Jays and M’s.

Though he didn’t manage to take advantage of a 22-appearance MLB showcase last year in D.C., Cordero has obviously shown enough to pique the interest of multiple organizations. He carries a 5.40 ERA in 16 2/3 Triple-A innings this season, with twenty strikeouts but also 13 walks.

White Sox Announce Season-Ending Surgeries For Rodon, Jones, Adolfo

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The White Sox have announced a brutal trio of injury updates this afternoon, as James Fegan of The Athletic was among those to cover (links to Twitter). Lefty Carlos Rodon, righty Nate Jones, and propect Micker Adolfo are all slated for season-ending surgeries.

Rodon is headed in for Tommy John surgery on Wednesday. That outcome had been expected after the procedure was recommended recently. If all goes well, the 26-year-old could return at some point during the 2020 season.

The White Sox are paying Rodon $4.2MM this year, his second of four seasons of arbitration eligibility. With seven starts under his belt in 2019, Rodon has likely done enough to nudge that rate forward at least a bit, but won’t be due a significant raise. The former first-rounder has had some worrying health problems in recent years, but this will represent the most significant disruption to his career.

As for Jones, it’s another disappointing turn for a reliever whose career has been sidetracked by a never-ending barrage of injuries, including a prior TJ procedure (among others). The 33-year-old underwent surgery yesterday to address a flexor mass injury in his right forearm. He has averaged less than 25 innings annually since the start of the 2014 season.

Jones remains controllable under the extension he signed in late 2015, which includes successive club options that include a $1.25MM buyout. The 2020 option was to be valued at either $3.75MM or $5.15MM, depending upon whether Jones had certain elbow procedures prior to 2018. He did not have another Tommy John surgery but did undergo a nerve repositioning procedure; whether the clause was triggered depends upon the precise language of the contract, which does not appear to have been reported.

Though he’s an outfielder rather than a pitcher, Adolfo has seen his own burgeoning career thwarted to this point by elbow troubles (among other injuries). He underwent TJS last year and worked back to health in time to take 95 plate appearances this season at Double-A (functioning only as a DH). His latest elbow work will require a four-to-six month break from baseball activities. GM Rick Hahn added that Adolfo will receive a fourth option year due to the health woes, which will make it easier for the club to hang onto him while he works back to health yet again.

Carlos Rodon Set For Second Opinion After TJS Recommendation

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White Sox lefty Carlos Rodon has received an initial recommendation that he undergo Tommy John surgery, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports on Twitter. He’s headed in for a second opinion before a final course is set.

It was already known that a full ulnar collateral ligament replacement was possible for the 26-year-old southpaw. But that scarcely draws the sting for the Chicago organization, which already lost another of its other top young arms when Michael Kopech underwent the dreaded (but often career-saving) procedure last season.

If Rodon does indeed require TJS, he’ll be down for the entire remainder of the 2019 season. His rehab would surely stretch into the 2020 campaign as well. The best-case scenario, presuming steady progress on a fairly conservative timetable, would likely be a return next summer.

Perhaps there’s still hope that Rodon can avoid the procedure. Other hurlers have rehabbed through UCL injuries and there are some alternatives that don’t require quite as long a layoff. The possibilities and odds aren’t really clear at this point.

Regardless, it’s clear that Rodon will be sidelined for a lengthy stretch. That’s too bad, as the former third overall pick had in some ways been in his finest form as a big leaguer thus far in 2019.

While his 5.19 ERA on the season isn’t much to look at, Rodon was punching out opposing hitters at a 11.9 K/9 rate on a 12.1% swinging-strike rate while maintaining a 18.3% K%-BB%. Those are all career-best figures. Rodon is also surrendering more hard contact to go with the unsightly ERA, so clearly there were some kinks still to be worked out in his newly four-seam heavy approach.

Fortunately, even if Rodon does need a new ligament, he’ll have ample hope of returning to full health and rejoining the pursuit of his not-insignificant ceiling. He’s playing on a $4.2MM salary this year and has two more arb years remaining. In the event of season-ending surgery, the White Sox will have to stake something around that amount (perhaps adding a small raise) in order to maintain control over Rodon for his final two seasons of arbitration eligibility.

White Sox Place Carlos Rodon On 10-Day IL

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The White Sox announced today that southpaw Carlos Rodon has been placed on the 10-day injured list. He’ll be replaced by righty Lucas Giolito, who was activated to take the ball this evening. Dylan Covey will ultimately move into the rotation to take Rodon’s place for whatever duration he’s sidelined.

Rodon is dealing with an “edema in the flexor mass,” James Fegan of The Athletic was among those to report (via Twitter). That initial diagnosis doesn’t provide a clear picture of Rodon’s outlook, but it seems as if there’s some reason for worry here. “Everything is on the table,” GM Rick Hahn told reporters including Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link) when asked about the possibility of Tommy John surgery.

Rodon had been off to an interesting, albeit uneven opening to the season. He’s averaging 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings, nearly twice the rate he managed last year. Rodon is carrying a personal-best 12.1% swinging-strike rate despite losing a full mile per hour on his average fastball. Going to his four-seamer instead of his sinker may be helping generate whiffs, though Rodon has seen year-over-year rises in hard contact and batting average on balls in play.

Despite solid marks from ERA estimators (3.52 FIP, 3.89 xFIP, and 3.92 SIERA), the 26-year-old southpaw carries a 5.19 ERA through 34 2/3 innings this year. Unfortunately, it sounds as if he may need some time off before he can work on bringing his earned run average down.

Over five seasons in the majors, Rodon has contributed 529 innings of 4.08 ERA pitching. That’s not quite the level of consistent, high-end output that was hoped for when he was taken with the third overall pick of the 2014 draft. There’s still time for him to get past the health problems and chase his ceiling, but the end of his initial team control is now in sight. Rodon is earning $4.2MM this year in his second of four seasons of arbitration eligibility.

This represents the latest hit to a White Sox rotation that has been in disarray early on. Rodon and Giolito have led the staff with their 5+ earned per nine; the other three hurlers with three or more starts have earned run averages of six or more. The team already ditched Ervin Santana. While the first two outings for Manny Banuelos have gone well, it’s a limited sample and rather a thin silver lining.

Covey will get another shot at proving himself in the majors after failing to do so in 191 2/3 innings over the past two seasons. He may ultimately be joined by top pitching prospect Dylan Cease, who’s off to a nice opening at Triple-A, but a promotion still doesn’t seem to be imminent. Hahn suggested to reporters that he may end up looking for outside arms to help fill things out.

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