Carlos Rodon Departs With Shoulder Soreness
8:33pm: Rodon experienced shoulder soreness, the team announced. He also reported pain in the neck area, James Fegan of The Athletic tweets.
8:16pm: White Sox starter Carlos Rodon left his start today after just two innings. The lefty’s fastball velocity dropped precipitously in his second frame, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy observes on Twitter.
It’s too soon to tell what caused the velo drop, but the South Siders obviously were concerned enough to give a quick hook after just 26 pitches. Rodon allowed three hits and one earned run before departing.
Rodon, 27, already turned in one rough outing to open the season. He had been hoping for a full campaign after missing significant time due to Tommy John surgery. Rodon can be controlled through arbitration for one more season after the 2020 campaign.
That TJ procedure and an earlier shoulder surgery provide a worrisome backdrop to the developments this evening. There are obviously quite a few other potential explanations for a sudden loss of arm speed, but that recent history suggests some added cause for concern.
The Slow Decline Of A Former Top-3 Pick
With the third overall pick in the 2014 draft, the Chicago White Sox selected Carlos Rodon out of North Carolina State. Rodon was a consideration for the top overall pick in the draft, but the Astros and Marlins each went with a high school arm in Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek. As the top college arm in the draft, Rodon came with high expectations and a presupposed shorter timetable for reaching the majors.
Sure enough, it didn’t take Rodon long to reach the majors. He was the second-fastest from the draft class to make his debut, trailing only Brandon Finnegan of the Royals (debuted in September of 2014). Rodon made his debut in 2015, along with other top-10 draft picks from 2014 like Kyle Schwarber of the Cubs, Aaron Nola of the Phillies, and Michael Conforto of the Mets. Rodon came out of the gate hot, going 9-6 in 23 starts with a 3.75 ERA/3.87 FIP.
Rodon has now played parts of five professional seasons with the White Sox, but he has yet to put together a complete campaign. All in all, he’s largely been a disappointment. For his career, he’s 29-31 with a 4.08 ERA/4.25 ERA with 8.8 K/9 versus 3.9 BB/9 across 529 innings. Rodon’s numbers fit comfortably at the back end of a rotation, but the White Sox hoped for much more out of Rodon.
Rodon’s track record cannot be separated from his injury history. A sprained wrist in 2016, biceps bursitis in 2017, shoulder inflammation when he returned in 2017 that bled into the 2018 season, and then Tommy John surgery that ended his 2019 season after just 7 starts. It’s been a rough road since making his debut.
Entering 2020, the 27-year-old Rodon is a legitimate afterthought. He’s lost velocity over the years, with his four-seamer peaking early in his career with a 94.2 mph average and dropping to 91.4 mph over his seven starts of 2019. He’s gone away from the sinker that was his trademark early on, relying more and more on a fastball-slider mix that profiles more like the repertoire of a late-inning reliever. As he returns from Tommy John surgery, it’s hard to know what kind of pitcher Rodon will be.
Because of the delay to the 2020 season, however, he will be healthy and ready to go when/if the seasons starts, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. That’s good news for Rodon and the White Sox, though it’s unclear if there’s room for Rodon in the rotation. Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel are locked into the first two spots in the rotation. Gio Gonzalez was given a $5MM contract to do what Rodon hasn’t been able to: provide innings. For the other two rotation spots, Rodon will have to beat out a pair of young arms in Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Cease.
Lopez, 26, has taken his turn every fifth day for the last two seasons in Chicago, but the results haven’t been tremendous (4.64 ERA/4.83 FIP) – and he’s just a year younger than Rodon. Cease, 24, made his debut last year and struggled, but he remains a promising, hard-throwing righty. They’re slotted into the rotation for now, but there’s never been more uncertainty heading into a season than we face in 2020. Rodon could very well push for a rotation slot, but his future is no longer guaranteed. Michael Kopech could also join the fray, as Van Schouwen notes that the former Red Sox farmhand should be recovered from his own Tommy John surgery.
The fact is, the rotation is the biggest question mark of the White Sox roster heading into 2020 – despite the high-ceiling potential therein. Given the bizarre circumstances of the current climate, the bigger question is how much rope Chicago will give their young arms. With a shortened season and expanded playoffs, the White Sox have increased expectations. Fans will expect the Southsiders to join the crowded playoff field. To that end, the early games will matter like never before. A guy returning from injury like Rodon won’t have the leeway to round himself into shape. What’s worse, he might not have minor league games to provide that extra runway either.
If Rodon can come back as effective as pre-surgery, he won’t be the ace that some imagined, but he can hang in a rotation. Whether he’ll get that opportunity in Chicago is unclear. Injuries take their toll, and Rodon has been through the wringer. Whether through side sessions or spring training 2.0, Rodon will have to prove he’s ready to contribute.
If the season takes place, Rodon will have just one more season of arbitration eligibility before reaching free agency, and the White Sox will have to decide whether it’s worth giving him a raise on the $4.45MM (full-scale rate) he’s due in 2020. Rodon is still young enough to turn things around in Chicago, but the injuries are piling up, and time is running out.
Carlos Rodon On Schedule In Tommy John Rehab
White Sox southpaw Carlos Rodon is “on schedule” in his rehab from last May’s Tommy John surgery, the lefty himself tells Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. Rodon is throwing three times per week, including two bullpen sessions, and could be ready to face live hitters within a matter of weeks. Rodon believes it’s “realistic” that he’d be ready to pitch in a game setting by June, although we of course don’t yet know when (or if) games will be resuming.
A healthy Rodon would be a boost to an already improved White Sox rotation, and if he does indeed prove ready to pitch in a game setting from the get-go or shortly into a delayed season, that’d be of particular benefit to the Sox given what’s likely to be a condensed schedule featuring frequent doubleheaders. Currently, the White Sox are set to rely on Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Dylan Cease, Gio Gonzalez and Reynaldo Lopez, but the delayed start to the year could drop Rodon into the mix before long and could also allow prized prospect Michael Kopech to join the fray earlier than anticipated. Kopech, who is returning from Tommy John surgery of his own (Sept. 2018), did make it into a spring game and pitched one inning before play was halted.
It’s a group that’s teeming with ability but lacking in terms of certainty. Giolito, the former first-round pick and uber-prospect broke out with a huge showing in 2019 and looks like the leader of the staff after tossing 176 2/3 innings of 3.41 ERA ball with 11.6 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9. Even he only has one successful season under his belt, though.
Keuchel is, of course, a steady presence in the rotation but looks more like an innings eater now than the ground-ball savant who captured a Cy Young Award back in 2015. Gonzalez was sharp for Milwaukee last year but averaged barely 4 2/3 innings per start. Some of that is due to the atypical way in which the Brewers deploy their pitchers, but he’s never been known as an efficient starter.
Beyond that trio, each of Cease, Lopez and Kopech have been considered among the game’s premier overall prospects at times. Lopez hasn’t really delivered on that hype outside of a 2018 season that saw him post a 3.91 ERA with concerning peripherals that pointed to regression — which is indeed what happened in 2019. Cease’s impressive fastball and swing-and-miss ability was on display in his 2019 debut, but so were his difficulties in locating the ball. Kopech has the pedigree and potential of a front-of-the-rotation arm but has yet to harness his own control and didn’t pitch at all in 2019 while rehabbing.
In terms of raw talent, it’s hard to find a better collection of young starters who are all on the same big league radar, but much of that potential remains untapped. As such, the return of a veteran arm like Rodon would be particularly welcome. He may not have quite reached the heights that some fans had hoped when he was drafted third overall in 2014, but he’s compiled 529 career innings with a 4.08 ERA and nearly a strikeout per frame. Getting back into games will be of particular importance for him on a personal level as well, given that Rodon is controlled only through the 2021 season and could use all the opportunities he can get to reestablish himself prior to free agency in the 2021-22 offseason.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League
Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.
We’ll track the majority of the American League’s settlements in this post and split off a separate one for NL settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:
- Newly acquired Angels righty Dylan Bundy receives a $5MM salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). He had projected at a $5.7MM price tag. Teammate Hansel Robles gets $3.85MM, per Heyman, just shy of his $4MM projection.
- The Yankees have worked out deals with all of their eligible players. The team has a hefty $8.5MM pact with Aaron Judge, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter. Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery have also agreed to terms, the former at $1.275MM and the latter at $805K, per Heyman (Twitter links).
- The Twins announced that they struck deals with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. Jon Heyman of MLB Network followed up with salary terms (all links to Twitter). May earns $2,205,000; Rogers takes home $4.45MM; Rosario lands at $7.75MM; and Buxton receives $3.075MM. While the first and last of those land rather close to the projected amount, Rogers got $550K more and Rosario got $1.15MM less than the calculators predicted.
- Shortstop Carlos Correa settled with the Astros for $8MM, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Righty Brad Peacock lands at a $3.9MM salary, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The former went for more than his $7.4MM projection, while the latter ended up shy of the $4.6MM mark produced by the computers. The ‘Stros also have agreed with closer Roberto Osuna as well, per an announcement. It’s a $10MM deal, slotting in just $200K shy of his projection, per Rome (via Twitter).
- The Orioles have a deal with outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. It’s for $4.75MM, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter), well south of the $5.7MM projection.
- Outfielder Jorge Soler has agreed to a $7.3MM deal with the Royals, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That’s well off of the $11.2MM that MLBTR’s model projected, though it is likely that the cause of the gulf lies in the interpretation of the correct baseline to start from in building Soler’s salary. He’s in the 4+ service class but had been playing on the original deal he signed out of Cuba.
- The Tigers have a deal in place with southpaw Matthew Boyd, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $5.3MM, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). That falls comfortably below the $6.4MM, suggesting that Boyd’s camp was concerned with the way his suboptimal ERA would play in the arb process. Fellow lefty starter Daniel Norris will earn $2.96MM, McCosky tweets.
Earlier Settlements
White Sox Claim Jimmy Cordero
The White Sox have claimed righty Jimmy Cordero off waivers from the Mariners, per club announcements. Southpaw Carlos Rodon was shifted to the 60-day IL to create 40-man space.
Cordero has now moved three times already this season. He started out with the Nationals, who had employed him for a few years after claiming him from the Phillies a few years back, before brief stints with the Blue Jays and M’s.
Though he didn’t manage to take advantage of a 22-appearance MLB showcase last year in D.C., Cordero has obviously shown enough to pique the interest of multiple organizations. He carries a 5.40 ERA in 16 2/3 Triple-A innings this season, with twenty strikeouts but also 13 walks.
White Sox Announce Season-Ending Surgeries For Rodon, Jones, Adolfo
The White Sox have announced a brutal trio of injury updates this afternoon, as James Fegan of The Athletic was among those to cover (links to Twitter). Lefty Carlos Rodon, righty Nate Jones, and propect Micker Adolfo are all slated for season-ending surgeries.
Rodon is headed in for Tommy John surgery on Wednesday. That outcome had been expected after the procedure was recommended recently. If all goes well, the 26-year-old could return at some point during the 2020 season.
The White Sox are paying Rodon $4.2MM this year, his second of four seasons of arbitration eligibility. With seven starts under his belt in 2019, Rodon has likely done enough to nudge that rate forward at least a bit, but won’t be due a significant raise. The former first-rounder has had some worrying health problems in recent years, but this will represent the most significant disruption to his career.
As for Jones, it’s another disappointing turn for a reliever whose career has been sidetracked by a never-ending barrage of injuries, including a prior TJ procedure (among others). The 33-year-old underwent surgery yesterday to address a flexor mass injury in his right forearm. He has averaged less than 25 innings annually since the start of the 2014 season.
Jones remains controllable under the extension he signed in late 2015, which includes successive club options that include a $1.25MM buyout. The 2020 option was to be valued at either $3.75MM or $5.15MM, depending upon whether Jones had certain elbow procedures prior to 2018. He did not have another Tommy John surgery but did undergo a nerve repositioning procedure; whether the clause was triggered depends upon the precise language of the contract, which does not appear to have been reported.
Though he’s an outfielder rather than a pitcher, Adolfo has seen his own burgeoning career thwarted to this point by elbow troubles (among other injuries). He underwent TJS last year and worked back to health in time to take 95 plate appearances this season at Double-A (functioning only as a DH). His latest elbow work will require a four-to-six month break from baseball activities. GM Rick Hahn added that Adolfo will receive a fourth option year due to the health woes, which will make it easier for the club to hang onto him while he works back to health yet again.
Carlos Rodon Set For Second Opinion After TJS Recommendation
White Sox lefty Carlos Rodon has received an initial recommendation that he undergo Tommy John surgery, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports on Twitter. He’s headed in for a second opinion before a final course is set.
It was already known that a full ulnar collateral ligament replacement was possible for the 26-year-old southpaw. But that scarcely draws the sting for the Chicago organization, which already lost another of its other top young arms when Michael Kopech underwent the dreaded (but often career-saving) procedure last season.
If Rodon does indeed require TJS, he’ll be down for the entire remainder of the 2019 season. His rehab would surely stretch into the 2020 campaign as well. The best-case scenario, presuming steady progress on a fairly conservative timetable, would likely be a return next summer.
Perhaps there’s still hope that Rodon can avoid the procedure. Other hurlers have rehabbed through UCL injuries and there are some alternatives that don’t require quite as long a layoff. The possibilities and odds aren’t really clear at this point.
Regardless, it’s clear that Rodon will be sidelined for a lengthy stretch. That’s too bad, as the former third overall pick had in some ways been in his finest form as a big leaguer thus far in 2019.
While his 5.19 ERA on the season isn’t much to look at, Rodon was punching out opposing hitters at a 11.9 K/9 rate on a 12.1% swinging-strike rate while maintaining a 18.3% K%-BB%. Those are all career-best figures. Rodon is also surrendering more hard contact to go with the unsightly ERA, so clearly there were some kinks still to be worked out in his newly four-seam heavy approach.
Fortunately, even if Rodon does need a new ligament, he’ll have ample hope of returning to full health and rejoining the pursuit of his not-insignificant ceiling. He’s playing on a $4.2MM salary this year and has two more arb years remaining. In the event of season-ending surgery, the White Sox will have to stake something around that amount (perhaps adding a small raise) in order to maintain control over Rodon for his final two seasons of arbitration eligibility.
White Sox Place Carlos Rodon On 10-Day IL
The White Sox announced today that southpaw Carlos Rodon has been placed on the 10-day injured list. He’ll be replaced by righty Lucas Giolito, who was activated to take the ball this evening. Dylan Covey will ultimately move into the rotation to take Rodon’s place for whatever duration he’s sidelined.
Rodon is dealing with an “edema in the flexor mass,” James Fegan of The Athletic was among those to report (via Twitter). That initial diagnosis doesn’t provide a clear picture of Rodon’s outlook, but it seems as if there’s some reason for worry here. “Everything is on the table,” GM Rick Hahn told reporters including Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link) when asked about the possibility of Tommy John surgery.
Rodon had been off to an interesting, albeit uneven opening to the season. He’s averaging 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings, nearly twice the rate he managed last year. Rodon is carrying a personal-best 12.1% swinging-strike rate despite losing a full mile per hour on his average fastball. Going to his four-seamer instead of his sinker may be helping generate whiffs, though Rodon has seen year-over-year rises in hard contact and batting average on balls in play.
Despite solid marks from ERA estimators (3.52 FIP, 3.89 xFIP, and 3.92 SIERA), the 26-year-old southpaw carries a 5.19 ERA through 34 2/3 innings this year. Unfortunately, it sounds as if he may need some time off before he can work on bringing his earned run average down.
Over five seasons in the majors, Rodon has contributed 529 innings of 4.08 ERA pitching. That’s not quite the level of consistent, high-end output that was hoped for when he was taken with the third overall pick of the 2014 draft. There’s still time for him to get past the health problems and chase his ceiling, but the end of his initial team control is now in sight. Rodon is earning $4.2MM this year in his second of four seasons of arbitration eligibility.
This represents the latest hit to a White Sox rotation that has been in disarray early on. Rodon and Giolito have led the staff with their 5+ earned per nine; the other three hurlers with three or more starts have earned run averages of six or more. The team already ditched Ervin Santana. While the first two outings for Manny Banuelos have gone well, it’s a limited sample and rather a thin silver lining.
Covey will get another shot at proving himself in the majors after failing to do so in 191 2/3 innings over the past two seasons. He may ultimately be joined by top pitching prospect Dylan Cease, who’s off to a nice opening at Triple-A, but a promotion still doesn’t seem to be imminent. Hahn suggested to reporters that he may end up looking for outside arms to help fill things out.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League
The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed at 1pm ET yesterday, meaning over the next few hours, there will be a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track today’s minor settlements from the American League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.
It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.
As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…
Today’s Updates
- Yankees 1B Greg Bird will make $1.2 MM next season, per Bob Nightengale on Twitter.
- The controversial Roberto Osuna will make $6.5MM next season, per Feinsand. Teammate Jake Marisnick, who again scuffled in ’18 after a promising 2017, will make $2.2125MM.
- Per Mark Feinsand on Twitter, A’s lefty Sean Manaea $3.15MM in what’s sure to be an injury-marred 2019.
- Hard-throwing reliever Mychal Givens will make $2.15MM, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter), with additional incentives for making the All-Star team or placing in the Top-3 for the Rivera/Hoffman Reliever of the Year Awards, added MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
- The Mariners agreed on a $1.95MM deal with outfielder Domingo Santana, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns (via Twitter). Santana is the second and last of the Mariners’ arbitration-eligible players.
- The Angels agreed to contracts with a pair of players yesterday, per Maria Torres of the LA Times (via Twitter). Reliever Hansel Robles signed for $1.4MM. Robles threw 36 1/3 innings of 2.97 ERA baseball after the Angels claimed him off waivers from the Mets in June. Luis Garcia, acquired via trade from the Phillies this winter, signed for $1.675MM.
- The Tigers and reliever Shane Greene settled on $4MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
- The Yankees reached an agreement with Sonny Gray for $7.5MM, per Nightengale. Gray, of course, has been involved trade rumors most of the winter, but for the time being, he stands to play a role in the Yankee pen while providing insurance for the rotation.
- Didi Gregorius has also come to an agreement with the Yankees on a one-year, $11.75MM deal in his final season before free agency, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links).
- New Yankee James Paxton signed for $8.575, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Paxton is under contract for the 2020 season as well.
- The Houston Astros came to an agreement with Collin McHugh for $5.8MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). McHugh could be moving back into the rotation after a stellar season in the pen, either way this will be his final season of arb eligibility before hitting the open market.
- Jonathan Villar comes away with $4.825MM for what will be his first full season in Baltimore, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
Earlier Updates
White Sox Activate Carlos Rodon, Designate Chris Beck
The White Sox have activated left-hander Carlos Rodon from the 60-day disabled list and designated righty Chris Beck for assignment, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times was among those to report.
The 25-year-old Rodon will make his season debut against the Red Sox on Saturday after missing the first couple months of 2018 while working back from arthroscopic left shoulder surgery. Rodon underwent the procedure last September to repair a “significant” case of bursitis that helped limit him to 69 1/3 innings. However, he looked strong during his four-start rehab assignment, including three outings with Triple-A Charlotte, where he pitched to a 1.42 ERA with 22 strikeouts against five walks in 12 2/3 innings.
Rodon hasn’t been nearly that dominant during his major league career, but he has emerged as a solid starter since going third in the 2014 draft. Overall, Rodon has recorded a 3.95 ERA, 9.22 K/9, 3.76 BB/9 and a 45.1 percent groundball rate across 373 2/3 innings. He’s currently making a $2.3MM salary in the first of four potential arbitration-eligible seasons.
Beck, 27, has been a member of the White Sox since they selected him in the second round of the 2012 draft. He debuted in the majors in 2015, the same year as Rodon, but hasn’t been nearly as successful as his teammate. Beck has registered a 5.94 ERA with 6.09 K/9, 4.96 BB/9 and a 42.1 percent grounder rate in 119 2/3 innings (97 appearances, one start). He opened 2018 with 23 2/3 innings of 4.18 ERA ball and 6.08 K/9 against 4.18 BB/9 prior to his designation.