Notable Players Who Didn’t Receive Qualifying Offers
Fourteen players were issued qualifying offers before today’s 4pm CT deadline, making the largest slate of offers extended since 20 players received the QO during the 2015-16 offseason. Despite the large number, however, some notable (and surprising) names weren’t issued the one-year, $18.4MM contract by their teams, and will now enter free agency without any draft pick compensation attached to their services.
We already touched on Clayton Kershaw’s situation with the Dodgers, and now let’s look at the three other free agents (all pitchers) who were seen as possible or even probable candidates to receive the QO…
Jon Gray, Rockies
Perhaps the most curious non-decision of the day came from Denver, as the Rockies passed on giving Gray a qualifying offer despite their clear interest in retaining the right-hander. The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders reports that Gray “likely would have accepted” a qualifying offer, which likely factored into the team’s decision-making process. It seems like the Rockies simply weren’t willing to pay Gray $18.4MM over one year, even though Colorado seemed comfortable in the range of a $13MM average annual value, as per their recent extension offer of a three-year deal worth around $35-$40MM.
It seems entirely possible that Gray could find more than three years and $40MM on the open market, especially without any QO compensation involved. While the Rockies and Gray may yet work out a new contract, the Rox are now in the position of losing Gray for nothing. This would be an especially tough blow for the club considering that they held onto Gray at the trade deadline out of the desire to sign him to a long-term extension.
Carlos Rodon, White Sox
Some late-season shoulder problems resulted in a trip to the injured list and then a reduced workload for the southpaw, putting a bit of a sour end to an otherwise tremendous year. However, the White Sox declined to issue Rodon a qualifying offer, and may now be parting ways with Rodon entirely — both The Athletic’s James Fegan and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale indicated that the Sox weren’t going to make an effort to bring Rodon back for another year on the South Side.
With this in mind, it seems clear that the White Sox didn’t want to run the risk of Rodon accepting the QO, which seemed like a distinct possibility given his late-season shoulder woes, not to mention his lengthy past injury history. It could be that the Sox already consider Rodon as found money, considering they took a $3MM flier on him last winter and he delivered 132 2/3 innings of 2.37 ERA ball. The team might also have further concerns about his long-term health. As Fegan notes, Chicago could use some type of starting depth this offseason, but it looks as though the White Sox feel they can find that rotation help at a cheaper price than Rodon at $18.4MM.
Anthony DeSclafani, Giants
One of several pitchers who have revived their careers after coming to San Francisco, DeSclafani rebounded from a rough 2020 season with the Reds to post a 3.17 ERA over 167 2/3 frames in a Giants uniform. With some less-than-stellar Statcast numbers, however, the Giants may not have been inclined to have DeSclafani back for $18.4MM, though the team does have designs on re-signing him if possible.
There was a decent chance DeSclafani would have accepted the Giants’ QO, just as Kevin Gausman did a season ago. Since the Giants also issued a qualifying offer to Brandon Belt that could be accepted, the club was probably wary of committing $36.8MM to just two players for their 2022 payroll, even if San Francisco has quite a bit of financial room to maneuver.
White Sox “Optimistic” Carlos Rodon Can Contribute During Postseason
The White Sox only received 28 innings from Carlos Rodon over the season’s final two months, as the left-hander missed time due to a shoulder issue and was regularly pulled after five innings even when he was healthy enough to take the mound. Part of that is likely rooted in the White Sox’ runaway lead in the American League Central, which allowed them to take a cautious approach with the resurgent southpaw. Still, his health has been something of a question mark for the Sox in recent days.
General manager Rick Hahn told reporters today the club remains “optimistic” that Rodon “will be able to contribute and help us over the course of the next month” (Twitter link via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun Times). Rodon will only pitch once during the American League Division Series, per Hahn, and they’ll assess his workload and availability on a series-per-series basis throughout the duration of their playoff run. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers adds that Rodon will throw in the bullpen tomorrow, which will give the team additional clarity on his status.
White Sox brass is currently debating whether Lucas Giolito or Lance Lynn will start the first game of the ALDS against Houston, Hahn added (Twitter link via The Athletic’s James Fegan). The GM called his two standout righties virtually “interchangeable” and said the debate will likely boil down to which they feel is better equipped to start a second time in the Division Series, if needed. Hahn also provided an update on first baseman Jose Abreu, who missed time this weekend with a non-Covid illness but is expected to be ready for workouts leading up to Thursday’s Game 1 showdown against the Astros.
The uncertainty surrounding Rodon is not only significant with regard to the imminent playoffs but also with the offseason looming. Rodon signed a one-year, $3MM deal to return to Chicago after being non-tendered and, for much of the season, was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. The 28-year-old made his first All-Star team, pitched to a 2.31 first-half ERA in 89 2/3 innings, and looked to be in the midst of breaking out as the ace the Sox hoped he could be when selecting him third overall back in 2014.
Rodon blanked the Astros over seven near-perfect frames in his first post-All-Star appearance on July 18, punching out 10 batters and lowering his ERA to 2.14. That, however, was the last time he’d throw more than five innings in a single outing this season. Rodon was on the injured list from Aug. 10-26 due to fatigue in his left shoulder, and while he was effective in his return from that IL stint, he averaged just 73.6 pitches and 4 2/3 innings per outing upon activation.
Regardless of how the postseason goes, it’d be hard for the White Sox to not give strong consideration to a qualifying offer for Rodon, who demonstrated the extent of his upside with 132 2/3 frames of 2.37 ERA ball, a 34.6 percent strikeout rate and a 6.7 percent walk rate. That’ll present Rodon with an interesting decision. Accepting a qualifying offer and then repeating that success with greater health in 2022 would position him for a massive free-agent payday. On the other hand, he’d perhaps command interest on lower-cost multi-year deals right now, and taking the one-year qualifying offer comes with the risk that further injury would sap his future market.
For now, simply performing in the postseason and giving his club the best chance possible at a deep run will be the lefty’s obvious priority. That said, he’ll be a fascinating qualifying offer and free-agent case when the time does come.
Injury Notes: Rodon, Blue Jays, Slater, Gsellman, Cardinals
The White Sox are skipping Carlos Rodon‘s next turn in the rotation due to shoulder soreness, and manager Tony La Russa told reporters (including NBC Chicago’s Maddie Lee) that the team is hopeful Rodon can pitch during the upcoming September 10-12 series with the Red Sox. That said, “when he doesn’t feel right, it’s impossible to push it,” La Russa said, noting that in the wake of Rodon’s recent injured-list stint due to shoulder fatigue, “that’s what’s concerning, that all this should add up to where right now he would be in peak form.”
Rodon missed a little over two weeks on the IL and has pitched well in two starts since returning, posting a 2.70 ERA over 10 innings. However, the Sox were easing Rodon back into action, limiting him to 144 total pitches over the two outings. La Russa said Jimmy Lambert would likely be called up to take Rodon’s spot in what has become an increasingly injury-riddled pitching staff — Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn are also on the 10-day injured list.
The latest on other injury situations around baseball…
- Cavan Biggio and Ross Stripling are slated to begin rehab assignments at the Blue Jays‘ Triple-A affiliate, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes (Twitter link). Stripling was placed on the 10-day IL on August 11 with a left oblique strain and could be closer than Biggio to a return, as Stripling might be back when the Jays begin a series against the Orioles on Friday. Biggio was already on a rehab assignment for a back problem when he suffered an elbow injury two weeks ago, thus setting back his progress.
- The Giants placed outfielder Austin Slater on the seven-day concussion IL prior to tonight’s game. Left-hander Sammy Long was also sent down to Triple-A, while righty Camilo Doval and outfielder Steven Duggar were recalled in corresponding moves. Slater suffered his concussion while crashing into the outfield wall in Saturday’s game in an attempt to catch a Trea Turner home run. Now in his fifth season with San Francisco, Slater is hitting .227/.313/.395 with 10 home runs over 288 plate appearances while seeing time at all three outfield positions.
- Robert Gsellman began a rehab assignment at the Mets‘ low-A affiliate today, Newsday’s Tim Healey tweets. Gsellman has been sidelined since June 21 due to a torn lat muscle, and though he’ll need multiple rehab outings due to the long layoff, he is on pace to return to the Mets bullpen before the season is out.
- Cardinals manager Mike Shildt told The Athletic’s Katie Woo and other reporters that Jack Flaherty will take the “huge step” of beginning to play catch within the next day or two. Flaherty’s season seemed to be in jeopardy when he was placed on the IL on August 25 due to a shoulder strain, though there is some optimism that the right-hander may be able to return as either a reliever or as a piggyback starter. In other Cardinals pitching news, Shildt said that Dakota Hudson will throw at least three more rehab starts as the righty continues to work his way back from Tommy John surgery. The timing will be somewhat tight, but there is some hope that Hudson can return to a big league mound this season, which would mark a tremendous recovery considering that Hudson underwent his surgery in late September 2020.
White Sox Activate Carlos Rodon From Injured List
The White Sox announced they’ve reinstated Carlos Rodón from the 10-day injured list. He’ll start this afternoon’s game against the Blue Jays. Infielder Danny Mendick was optioned to Triple-A Charlotte in a corresponding move.
Rodón is back for the first time in a couple weeks. He was retroactively placed on the IL on August 8 with shoulder fatigue. That came as something of a surprise, as Rodón had punched out eleven Royals over five scoreless innings during his prior start. The White Sox could afford to take things cautiously at even the slightest hint of discomfort from Rodón, who has tossed 109 2/3 innings this season after injuries limited him to 42 1/3 frames between 2019-20 combined. With the AL Central all but officially wrapped up, the Sox’s focus is on having Rodón at full strength for the postseason.
The southpaw has been surprisingly brilliant in 2021 after those back-to-back campaigns wrecked by injury. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Walker Buehler, Lance Lynn, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff have a lower ERA than his 2.38 mark. Rodón’s 36.2% strikeout rate and 29.4 percentage point strikeout/walk rate differential are both the best of that group. Assuming he finishes the season at or near that level, Rodón will earn strong support for the American League Cy Young award and position himself very well as he enters free agency this winter.
2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates
With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.
As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.
Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.
The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.
With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.
Locks
- Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Clayton Kershaw, Robbie Ray, Carlos Rodón, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story
This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.
Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.
Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.
Likely
- Michael Conforto, Jon Gray, Yusei Kikuchi, Eduardo Rodríguez, Noah Syndergaard, Chris Taylor, Justin Verlander
Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.
The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.
Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.
Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.
Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.
Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.
The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.
Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.
Possible
The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.
San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.
Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.
Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.
Long Shots
The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.
Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.
Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.
Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.
Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.
Opt-Out Clauses
Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.
Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.
Ineligible
- Javier Báez (midseason trade), Kris Bryant (midseason trade), Alex Cobb (previous QO), Nelson Cruz (previous QO/midseason trade), Danny Duffy (midseason trade), Eduardo Escobar (midseason trade), Kevin Gausman (previous QO), Kendall Graveman (midseason trade), Zack Greinke (previous QO), Kenley Jansen (previous QO), Starling Marte (midseason trade), Anthony Rizzo (midseason trade), Max Scherzer (previous QO/midseason trade), Kyle Schwarber (midseason trade), Marcus Stroman (previous QO)
AL Central Notes: Garcia, Rodon, Mondesi, Bieber, Civale, Teheran
The White Sox placed utilityman Leury Garcia on the seven-day concussion injured list today, retroactive to August 13. Infielder Danny Mendick was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move. The versatile Garcia has received multiple starts at six different positions this season, including 28 games at second base and 46 games spread across all three outfield spots. Now in his ninth season with the White Sox, Garcia’s super-utility status has made him a valuable bench piece and a semi-regular starter, even though he hasn’t contributed much at the plate.
Due to the nature of concussion symptoms, it isn’t known how much time Garcia could miss. The Sox do have a bit more of a timeline lightly sketched out for Carlos Rodon, however, as manager Tony La Russa suggested to reporters (including MLB.com’s Scott Merkin) that Rodon might pitch during Chicago’s four-game series against the Blue Jays that runs from August 23-26. Rodon’s 10-day IL placement due to shoulder fatigue retroactively began on August 8, and though La Russa said at the time that Rodon would likely be out of action beyond the 10-day minimum, a return against Toronto would still represent a relatively quick comeback for the left-hander.
More from around the AL Central…
- Adalberto Mondesi will visit with the Royals medical team after feeling tightness in his left oblique. Mondesi has been out of action since June 21 due to an oblique strain, and due to a right oblique strain and a hamstring strain earlier in the season, Mondesi has played in just 10 games in 2021. Royals manager Mike Matheny told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters that the idea of shutting Mondesi down for the season “hasn’t been talked about,” and the team is for now seeing this issue as just “a little bit of a setback” until more information is known. Mondesi had already been on a Triple-A rehab assignment for much of August.
- Both Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale are set to throw on Tuesday as the two Indians starters continue to work their way back from injury. Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer (Twitter link) was among those to report that Bieber tossed a bullpen session yesterday and will throw another bullpen on Tuesday. Civale’s outing Tuesday will be a two-inning simulated game, and if all goes well, Civale could begin a rehab assignment.
- Tigers right-hander Julio Teheran was throwing with low velocity while tossing a live batting practice session, and was shut down. As Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press), Teheran “hasn’t been able to generate the arm speed that’s going to be needed for him to step into a rehab assignment.” The veteran righty made just one start for Detroit before a shoulder strain put him on the 60-day IL back in April, so multiple rehab starts will be necessary for Teheran to ramp back up. Since it is already mid-August, however, “we’re running out of time,” Hinch said. “We’re going to have to determine what’s the next step for him if he’s going to make any part of the rest of the season.”
White Sox Place Carlos Rodon On 10-Day Injured List
The White Sox announced Wednesday that they’ve placed lefty Carlos Rodon on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to Aug. 8, due to left shoulder fatigue. Right-hander Matt Foster is up from Triple-A Charlotte to take his spot on the active roster. Chicago also announced that catcher Yasmani Grandal, who’s been out since early July after undergoing surgery to repair a torn tendon in his knee, will begin a minor league rehab assignment with Double-A Birmingham.
Rodon, 28, had been lined up to start tomorrow’s Field of Dreams game against the Yankees, but that start will now instead go to righty Lance Lynn. The South Siders haven’t provided a firm timeline for Rodon’s recovery, but manager Tony La Russa tells reporters he expects it to be longer than a minimum stint on the IL (Twitter link via ESPN 1000’s Connor McKnight). Notably, Rodon has a history of shoulder troubles. He underwent shoulder surgery back in 2017 and missed most of the 2020 campaign with shoulder pain as well.
The ChiSox have had the American League Central more or less wrapped up for quite some time now, so there’s little sense in rushing Rodon back. His absence won’t seriously hinder the team’s commanding 10.5-game lead in the Central, and the team’s focus is surely on making sure he’s at full strength to close out the regular season and play a pivotal role in the postseason rotation.
Rodon serving as a key to the Sox’ postseason starting staff would’ve seemed far-fetched, to say the least, not long ago. The White Sox non-tendered Rodon last December after a pair of injury-ruined seasons in 2019-20 that saw Rodon combine for a grisly 5.74 ERA in 42 1/3 frames.
That non-tender looked to end Rodon’s time with the Sox, but just shy of two months later, he returned on a one-year, $3MM deal. It wasn’t the most well-received signing in recent memory among White Sox fans, but Rodon has proved any naysayers wrong by not only rebounding to previous levels but instead rising to new heights entirely, as recently explored by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco.
The 2021 version of Rodon has been the overpowering ace that the Sox perhaps hoped he’d eventually become when selecting him with the No. 3 overall draft pick back in 2014. Through 19 starts this season, Rodon has pitched 109 2/3 innings of 2.38 ERA ball while fanning an outstanding 36.2 percent of his opponents against a very tidy 6.8 percent walk rate. He’s bumped his average fastball velocity to a career-high 95.8 mph, fanned 10 or more hitters on five occasions and thrown a no-hitter that was very nearly a perfect game.
Along the way, Rodon has cemented himself as one of the team’s frontline starters, joining the aforementioned Lynn among the league’s more dominant hurlers. Rodon’s ERA is sixth-best among pitchers with at least 100 innings thrown — Lynn leads the way at 2.04 — and no pitcher in baseball has whiffed a higher percentage of his opponents (again, min. 100 innings pitched).
The injury shouldn’t impact the White Sox’ chances of reaching the postseason. However, Rodon himself would be best-served with a quick return to full strength, as he’s set to return to the free-agent market this winter. The dominance he’s shown to date should already position him for a hefty multi-year contract, but a lengthy absence may give teams some pause — particularly given the deep free-agent class and the number of alternative options on the market. He’ll already be viewed much differently than when the Sox cut him loose back in December, but a quick return and healthy finish would make for an even more bullish outlook.
A Breakout Starter In His Platform Season
Carlos Rodón was selected third overall in the 2014 draft and was an immediate top prospect upon entering pro ball. He flew to the big leagues, making his MLB debut ten months after his draft date. Rodón was immediately a productive starter, pitching to a 3.75 ERA/4.20 SIERA across 139 1/3 innings as a 22-year-old. It would’ve been easy for the White Sox to envision him as another top-of-the-rotation arm in an organization that had already produced Chris Sale and José Quintana.
Rodón didn’t make the jump to that level over the next few seasons though. He was fine from 2016-18, working to a 4.11 ERA/4.46 FIP, but it seemed he’d plateaued as a league average arm. That’s useful but probably not what many fans had in mind. Then Rodón dealt with a series of injuries that called his future into question. He landed on the 60-day injured list each season from 2018-20, missing time with shoulder and elbow issues. When healthy enough to pitch over the last two seasons, he was unproductive, tossing 42 1/3 innings of 5.74 ERA ball.
Those struggles even led the White Sox to cut ties with Rodón temporarily. Chicago non-tendered him last winter rather than offer him an arbitration salary that would’ve cost a bit more than $4MM. He spent a good portion of the offseason unsigned before returning to the South Side on a $3MM guarantee in late January. Even at such a low price point, the Rodón reunion looked like a questionable decision given his health woes and recent underperformance. In retrospect, it has proven to be a masterstroke by general manager Rick Hahn and the front office.
Rodón earned a spot in the starting rotation to open the year. He’s stayed healthy to this point and been nothing short of incredible. Rodón has worked to a minuscule 2.31 ERA across 89 2/3 innings. He has struck out a career-high 36.1% of batters faced, a mark that trails only Jacob deGrom, Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow among the 146 pitchers with 50+ innings pitched. Rodón’s also fourth among that group (behind deGrom, Burnes and Max Scherzer) in strikeout/walk rate differential (28.9 percentage points) and SIERA (2.82). The big lefty earned a well-deserved trip to the All-Star Game for the first time in his career in recognition of that strong work.
Unsurprisingly, Rodón’s featuring the best raw stuff of his career. His fastball is averaging 95.9 MPH this season, a marked increase over his 92-94 MPH range in recent years. Rodón actually first experienced a velocity spike during a couple of relief appearances at the end of last season, but it wasn’t clear whether he’d be able to maintain that with a starter’s workload. He has so far, with no indication of slowing down.
He’s also added a bit more life on the heater at the top of the strike zone, and he’s throwing his slider with increased velocity. Both offerings have been plus, but it’s his fastball that has become almost unhittable. Rodón has generated a league-leading 147 whiffs on four-seamers this season, per Statcast. (His 17.1% swinging strike rate on the offering is tied for third among the 68 pitchers who have thrown at least 500 fastbals). In 2018 — his most recent season of more than seven starts — batters hit .257 and slugged .422 off Rodón in at-bats ending with a four-seamer. This year, they’re hitting .180 and slugging .275 against the pitch.
It’s only been three months, but Rodón has performed at an ace-caliber level to this point. He famously threw a no-hitter against the Indians in April, and he’s had an additional seven starts in which he’s allowed three or fewer hits. Rodón has struck out eight or more batters in thirteen of his fifteen appearances, and he’s shown no obvious ill effects from the league’s foreign substance crackdown. In all likelihood, 2021 will mark his heaviest workload in five years, so he’ll need to continue to prove he’s capable of performing at a high level as his innings total piles up.
The White Sox are highly likely to win the AL Central, and Rodón has put himself in what appears to be a very strong future playoff rotation also including Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and one of Dylan Cease or Dallas Keuchel. He’s in line to again reach free agency this winter, where he’ll be one of the youngest and most productive starting pitchers on the market. There’s no question he’ll fare quite a bit better this time around.
Quick Hits: Rodon, Bellinger, Graterol, Mazara, Stripling
Carlos Rodon was perfect through 8 1/3 innings tonight against the Indians. A backfoot slider skipped off the top of Roberto Perez‘s right foot, ending his bid for a perfect game. Rodon managed to complete the no hitter, however, with a masterful 114-pitch complete game shutout. Coming into this season, the former third overall pick was in a battle for the fifth starter job in the White Sox rotation. But tonight, the burly southpaw routinely hit 97 mph on the radar gun (hitting as high as 99 mph in the ninth inning). Certainly, Rodon wasn’t all that high up on the list of pitchers likeliest to throw what would have been the first perfect game in the Majors since 2012: He hasn’t posted an ERA under five since 2018, and he was designated for assignment this winter. Yet, tonight’s start marked the culmination of an arduous journey through numerous injuries and multiple arm surgeries. Congrats to Rodon on throwing the 20th no-hitter in White Sox franchise history. Now, let’s check in on some players still making their way back from injury…
- Cody Bellinger and Brusdar Graterol will both join the Dodgers on their forthcoming road trip, but neither is a guarantee to be activated. Belligner is still experiencing some swelling in his calf, and he’s yet to run the bases as full speed, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com (via Twitter). Bellinger has been out since April 5th. As for Graterol, he’ll be added to the taxi squad, per Jorge Castillo of the LA Times (via Twitter). It’s not entirely clear why Graterol wasn’t ready to start the season, but it’s only a matter of time until he becomes available out of the bullpen for manager Dave Roberts.
- Nomar Mazara left Wednesday night’s game with a left abdominal strain, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. There’s no timetable for his return. In the meantime, JaCoby Jones and Victor Reyes should have more opportunities in the starting lineup. Both outfielders have seen their playing time cut both by the offseason acquisition of Robbie Grossman and the early-season breakout from Akil Baddoo. Both Reyes (30 wRC+) and Jones (-10 wRC+) are off to slow starts through their first week of games.
- Ross Stripling is dealing with forearm tightness, but the Blue Jays don’t have any information beyond that, per Scott Mitchell of TSN Sports (via Twitter). The former Dodger has been tagged for seven earned runs on 13 hits and three walks over 8 1/3 innings so far.
White Sox Designate Emilio Vargas
The White Sox have designated right-hander Emilio Vargas for assignment, James Fegan of The Athletic tweets. His 40-man roster spot will go to lefty Carlos Rodon, who has officially re-signed.
It wasn’t a long stay on Chicago’s 40-man for Vargas, whom the White Sox claimed off waivers from the Diamondbacks in the second half of November. Vargas joined the White Sox as someone without any major league experience or a high-end prospect pedigree. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote before 2020 that “Vargas is a Triple-A depth arm with a 40 fastball based on velo and a 45 fastball based on how it plays at the top of the zone.”
Vargas, who turned 24 in August, has so far topped out at Double-A ball in the minors. He has done a decent job keeping runs off the board there with 121 1/3 innings of 3.86 ERA ball and 100 strikeouts against 31 walks.