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Melvin: Talk Of Deal “Absolutely False”

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MLB.com's Adam McCalvy spoke to Brewers' GM Doug Melvin about some "trade rumors that have swirled on the Internet over the past 36 hours about an imminent trade for a front-line pitcher." Melvin called the rumors "absolutely false," although he did acknowledge speaking to several other GM's recently. He wouldn't acknowledge who exactly he spoke to, or what kind of players were discussed.

The only recent trade talk we've heard involving the Brew Crew lately is that Jake Peavy is too expensive and that Tom Glavine isn't good enough to help. Peavy is out for at least a month with an ankle injury, so he figures to be out of the mix for now.

Let's round up the rest of McCalvy's rumors:

  • Neither Trevor Hoffman or Ryan Braun has spoken to Peavy lately, perhaps about pitching in Milwaukee. Hoffman, of course, was Peavy's teammate in San Diego, while Braun played with him in the World Baseball Classic.
  • Melvin said he hasn't spoken to Indians' GM Mark Shapiro "in a while," potentially eliminating Cliff Lee as the rumored front-line pitcher.
  • Boston GM Theo Epstein called Melvin recently not to talk trade, but to apologize for a rumor about the Red Sox attempting to acquire Corey Hart.
  • Melvin said "There's not one team that's saying, 'I'm ready to trade my players,'" specifically mentioning the Mariners.

Indians Uncertain About Trade Status

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As MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince reports, GM Mark Shapiro and the Indians still haven't decided if they are going to start pawning off their movable pieces for players that can help the team next year and beyond. 

"We're on the sidelines right now," Shapiro said. "We're keeping a pulse of the market and not making a decision in either direction."  

The Tribe were 24-34 and seven games back in the AL Central coming into today's action, but currently have eight players on the disabled list. Starters Cliff Lee and the resurgent Carl Pavano figure to draw significant interest from contending teams, ditto catcher Victor Martinez. We've certainly heard plenty of rumors about infielder Mark DeRosa already.

With no reason to move players sooner rather than later, the Indians can afford to sit back and see how things play out once they get healthy. They are just one hot week from being right back in thick of things in a winnable division after all.

Are Indians About To Become Sellers?

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According to MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince, the Indians may be coming to the conclusion that 2009 just isn't their year. Writes Castrovince, "As much as the Indians have been through this season, they entered tonight a reasonable seven games back in the AL Central. But when you factor in the injuries, the inconsistencies and the general snake-bitten nature of this club, it's hard to imagine a comeback."

But it isn't Castrovince that will make this call, it's GM Mark Shapiro. And he seems to be coming to the same conclusion. As Castrovince puts it, "I got the sense that he's coming around to that concept, too. He didn't repeat the mantra that the Indians are 'one good week away' from being back in contention. Rather, with regard to the still-developing trade market, he said the Tribe is 'one the sideline' right now, 'keeping a pulse' of what's going on. Stay tuned."

With obvious targets like Mark DeRosa, not to mention potentially highly-sought Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee, many teams are hoping Cleveland loses ground over the next week or two, forcing Shapiro's hand.

Heyman On Contenders’ Needs

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Jon Heyman of SI.com reports that the Dodgers would have to overpay for Jake Peavy, the Red Sox are going after bats and the Giants are "dangling" Jonathan Sanchez. Here are the details:

  • It's unlikely the White Sox could pry Cliff Lee away from the Indians.
  • The Brewers aren't sure whether they'll go after a hitter or a pitcher.  
  • Heyman cites a source who says the Dodgers believe they'd have to pay "insanely" more than anyone else if they want to acquire Peavy. That's not much of a problem for the Dodgers, who are looking strong as-is.
  • The Red Sox are "aggressively seeking help," according to their competitors.
  • The best player they have a realistic shot at is Victor Martinez. If the Red Sox are going to deal for V-Mart, they'll likely have to part with young pitching.
  • Along with Nick Johnson and Aubrey Huff, Heyman says Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham are "possibilities" for the Red Sox.
  • Not surprisingly, the Mets would not deal Fernando Martinez for Matt Holliday.  
  • The Giants are "dangling" Jonathan Sanchez. 
  • The Cubs remain the favorites for Peavy, though they haven't called the Padres about him recently.
  • The Yankees, Angels and Rangers are looking for relief help. 
  • One AL exec believes Erik Bedard would not adjust well to the attention if he's dealt to the Phillies.  
  • And could George W. Bush team up with Nolan Ryan to re-purchase the Rangers?  

Heyman On Phillies Rotation Options

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SI.com's Jon Heyman spoke with Ruben Amaro Jr. and heard that the Phillies GM is after "depth at the top of the rotation." Here are the specifics of Heyman's analysis:

  • The Phillies want a "more established" player than Antonio Bastardo to replace the injured Brett Myers.
  • Amaro admits that swinging a deal is "tough to do" even with expendable young players like John Mayberry Jr., Lou Marson, Carlos Carrasco and Jason Donald.
  • Jake Peavy remains a logical fit, but there's no indication he'd accept a deal to Philly.  
  • Erik Bedard, at $7.75MM this year, fits within the Phillies' budget.  
  • Heyman agrees with Buster Olney: there's no guarantee Roy Oswalt will be dealt, but he would interest the Phillies.
  • Cliff Lee hasn't hit the market and Blue Jays people maintain that Roy Halladay isn't available, but Amaro isn't shying away from any top pitchers that become available. He says he wants "the best [he] can get." It appears that Brad Penny would not be enough for Philadelphia.
  • Chris Young and Aaron Harang are names to watch out for, as they could become available. 

Stark On Peavy, Oswalt, Phillies, DeRosa, Giants

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Let's take a look at the latest Rumblings and Grumblings column from ESPN's Jayson Stark.

  • The Padres' recent winning streak has not changed their intention of trading Jake Peavy.  The Dodgers and Cubs are in Peavy's first tier of choices, follwed by the Giants, Cardinals, and Astros.  The Angels would be the one AL team he'd consider.  The East Coast is a long shot.  Also, Peavy will want his 2011-13 partial no-trade clause to become a full no-trade.  Peavy's friend Roy Oswalt has been unsuccessful in lobbying Astros owner Drayton McLane, as the 'Stros can't take on Peavy's contract.  As for the Dodgers, GM Ned Colletti told the L.A. Times he hasn't talked to the Padres about Peavy since the pitcher vetoed the White Sox deal.
  • Stark talked to scouts who believe Oswalt has "lost his edge" and needs a change of scenery.  The Phillies have inquired on him, but they've asked about everyone: Peavy, Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay, Doug Davis, Erik Bedard, Cliff Lee, Aaron Harang, Brad Penny, Chris Young and Jason Marquis.  Popular Phillies trade targets include Lou Marson, Jason Donald, Carlos Carrasco, Travis D'Arnaud, Freddy Galvis, Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, and Antonio Bastardo.
  • The Braves are interested in bringing Mark DeRosa back to Atlanta.  He came up with them and was non-tendered in '04 after tearing his ACL.  But to deal young arms, the Braves would want an impact bat.  Stark says they're "mostly listening" rather than shopping Jeff Francoeur.  His trade value is difficult to gauge.
  • The Mets seem content to wait out the first base trade market.
  • The Giants seek a middle-of-the-order bat, and Jonathan Sanchez is being dangled.  Three targets they haven't had success on are Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, and possibly Carlos Lee.  Lee, according to one Stark source, doesn't intend to waive his no-trade for anyone.

Gammons On Indians, Nationals, Mauer

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Here are the highlights from Peter Gammons' analysis on Mike and Mike in the Morning. Joe Haggerty of the Boston Metro has the interview transcript on his blog, Hacks with Haggs.

  • The Padres will have a hard time dealing Jake Peavy because there aren't many takers who have the resources to acquire him. The Braves don't figure in now that they have enough pitching and the Cardinals aren't a likely fit either. 
  • "Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee are not on the trade block," according to Gammons.  
  • The Indians would deal Mark DeRosa for "major league ready pitching."
  • Washington would like to deal Nick Johnson, Austin Kearns and some of their "semi-attractive" relievers. 
  • The Nationals offered Johnson to the Red Sox for Manny Delcarmen.
  • Gammons says he believes it's in the best interest of the buyer and the seller to deal earlier, rather than later.
  • The Yankees and Red Sox could offer Mark Teixeira money ($180MM) to Joe Mauer if the catcher hits free agency after the 2010 season.  

Stark On White Sox, Bedard, A’s, Penny

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A new Rumblings and Grumblings column from ESPN's Jayson Stark…

  • Even if they don't acquire Jake Peavy, the White Sox are apparently "open for business."  Stark takes that to mean names such as Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Octavio Dotel, and A.J. Pierzynski could hit the market.
  • The Mariners are not quite yet at the point of making Erik Bedard available.  They figure to price him like an ace if they do so.
  • If A's GM Billy Beane decides to fold on 2009, he could make veterans such as Matt Holliday, Orlando Cabrera, Jason Giambi, and Russ Springer available.
  • It's very unlikely that the D'Backs shop Brandon Webb this summer, since he'll be coming off a shoulder injury.
  • Indians GM Mark Shapiro seems to be leaning toward hanging on to Cliff Lee for now.  Shapiro may look to add pitching by trading Mark DeRosa or an outfielder.
  • The Red Sox are "actively listening" on Brad Penny.  My opinion: the Phillies, Indians, White Sox, or Mets could make sense.

Why Are So Many Pitchers Still Unsigned?

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We are nearing Memorial Day, and many pitchers whose resumes would normally have landed them at least a minor-league deal by now remain unsigned.

  • Pedro Martinez is still homeless. While the complication may be in part due to Pedro's salary demands, it is surprising that nobody has signed him. Yes, his ERA was an unsightly 5.61 in 2008, but his 2007 stint was far better-2.57 ERA in 28 innings. His 87 strikeouts against 44 walks in 109 innings also suggests a pitcher who can help a team on the back end of a rotation. Given that it is Pedro Martinez, there is upside well beyond that, of course.
  • Odalis Perez remains strangely unsigned after his even stranger signing that wasn't with Washington this spring. Perez turns 32 on June 7, and had a perfectly average 2008, with a 4.34 ERA in 159 2/3 innings. Obviously, those numbers could help any number of teams.
  • Paul Byrd did what he always does in 2008-posted an ERA in the mid 4s (4.60 to be exact), struck out around four per nine innings, and kept his team in the game. Yet Byrd has yet to sign with anyone, either.

The lack of movement on these pitchers can't be due to overwhelming performances by all the starters currently employed. After all, there's Jamie Moyer and his 8.15 ERA, Carlos Silva and his 8.48 ERA, Oliver Perez and his 9.97 ERA… plenty of others at sixes and sevens, from Scott Olsen to Scott Kazmir. (Even as I type this, Moyer is giving up another home run. No, really.)

My suspicion is that teams view Martinez, Perez or Byrd as band-aid solutions. And that would be fine, normally. After all, band-aids have a rich tradition of stopping people from bleeding.

But the trade market for pitchers has the most top targets it's had in years. The Padres are already 10 games out, and Jake Peavy will likely hit the market. If Cincinnati fades, Aaron Harang could be available. If Toronto falls back to earth- and the smart money still has them finishing fourth- Roy Halladay could be someone else's ace by August. And Cleveland's Cliff Lee will be a prominent target as well.

There are even second-tier options that can help teams now and in the future, from Baltimore's Jeremy Guthrie to Seattle's Erik Bedard.  And in the current economic climate, teams that fall out of the race may have even greater incentive to shed salary as soon as possible.

So it may well be that for veteran free agents, the market will only pick up once the trade deadline has come and gone. And with so many targets out there, once the deadline deals are made July 31, there may not be any place for Martinez, Perez or Byrd to land.

Discussion: The Tribe And Cliff Lee

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At 14-22 entering Saturday's full slate of action, the Indians are in last place in the American League Central.  They have the talent to contend in that division, but it's simply not clicking right now.  Staff ace and 2008 AL Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee has a $9MM option for 2010.  That's a cheap price tag, but are the Indians better off dealing him this summer, or even this offseason, for a crop of young prospects?  He may not bring on a Matt LaPorta-caliber player, as C.C. Sabathia did last season, but the Tribe could definitely load up on some fresh talent.

FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal addressed the issue recently, and his logic makes sense.

"High-revenue teams surely are intrigued by the possibility that the Indians might trade left-hander Cliff Lee.  The Indians are less enthralled by the idea.  Lee's contract — $5.75 million this season with an $8 million club option for 2010 — remains a bargain.  And club officials are not ready to give up on this season, much less the next.

If the Indians wished to move Lee, they might get a better return this offseason — when the free-agent market for starting pitching will be thin — than they would before the July 31 non-waiver deadline."  

"Right now, such a deal is not even under consideration," Rosenthal concludes.  Will it be a possibility this offseason?  What could the Tribe demand in return, and what club looks to be a good fit?
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