Orioles Moving Cole Irvin To Bullpen
The Orioles are kicking left-hander Cole Irvin to the bullpen, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (X link via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). Baltimore will stick with a starting five of Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Albert Suárez and rookie Cade Povich.
Irvin has spent the majority of his career as a starter. Yet this is the second straight year in which he’s been squeezed out of the Baltimore rotation, at least temporarily. Acquired from the A’s going into the 2023 season, Irvin only started half of his 24 appearances a year ago. Baltimore moved him back into the rotation this year — in part because of injuries to Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells. He has started 14 of 16 outings.
The southpaw’s overall results are serviceable. Irvin carries a 4.13 ERA in 80 2/3 innings. His 16.1% strikeout rate is well below average, but Irvin’s game has never been built around missing many bats. He’s primarily a control artist and has continued to excel in that regard, walking fewer than 5% of opponents this year.
However, the vast majority of Irvin’s production came in the first two months of the season. He carried a 2.84 ERA through 50 2/3 innings into June. Opponents have teed off on him over the past couple weeks. Irvin was rocked for 6.30 earned runs per nine in 30 innings last month. His home run rate spiked to an untenable 1.8 HR/9 while opposing hitters put up a massive .341/.373/.591 slash line. Irvin’s three most recent starts have been especially poor. He allowed at least five runs in each without completing five innings in any.
The 30-year-old will try to sort things out in a multi-inning relief role. Hyde left open the possibility for Irvin to return to the rotation at any point. His chance of returning to starting could become more limited over the coming weeks. Acquiring starting pitching — ideally a third starter who could join Burnes and Rodriguez in a playoff rotation — should be a deadline priority for an O’s team holding a narrow advantage on the Yankees in the AL East. There might not be a robust supply of high-level starters this summer, which complicates things, but it’d be a surprise if the Orioles weren’t among the more aggressive suitors for starting pitching.
Irvin is playing this season on a $2MM arbitration salary. He’s out of options, so the Orioles can’t send him to Triple-A without putting him on waivers. Baltimore controls him via arbitration for two seasons beyond this one, yet it wouldn’t be surprising if they shop or even non-tender him next offseason. There’s an outside chance the O’s field trade offers on Irvin this summer (especially if they first acquire an impact stater who firmly blocks his path back to a starting job).
For now, he’s likely to serve in a long relief role in Hyde’s bullpen. Irvin had solid numbers in that capacity a season ago, working to a 3.26 ERA while striking out 23.3% of opponents in 19 1/3 frames as a reliever.
John Means Being Evaluated For Elbow Soreness
Orioles starter John Means left this afternoon’s appearance against the Cardinals after three innings. Postgame, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that the left-hander had experienced elbow discomfort (link via Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner). The team was sending Means for further evaluation to determine the severity of a possible injury.
Means was working with diminished stuff. According to Brooks Baseball, his fastball averaged a season-low 88.8 MPH. He has been in the 90-92 range in every other start. Means’ heater topped out at 90.3 MPH today, his lowest maximum velocity of the season.
It’s discouraging news for a pitcher who has battled repeated arm issues over the last couple years. Means was generally durable between 2019-21, his first three full MLB campaigns. He suffered an elbow sprain just two starts into his 2022 season. Means underwent Tommy John surgery not long after, keeping him out of MLB action for nearly 18 months. Baltimore reinstated the former All-Star in the middle of September. Means had a solid four-start run — a 2.66 ERA over 23 2/3 innings — but felt renewed elbow soreness in October.
Baltimore left him off their playoff roster and slow-played his offseason. Means opened the 2024 season on the injured list as a result. He missed the season’s first month. Hyde plugged Means back into the rotation on May 1. He has again been quite effective, turning in a 2.61 ERA with 16 strikeouts and only two walks (both of which came in today’s outing) through 20 innings.
The team will know more about a potential timetable for Means’ return in the coming days. It would appear that another trip to the injured list is a possibility, though the bigger question is whether there’s any kind of structural issue.
If Means goes to the IL, Cole Irvin should draw back into the rotation. The left-hander has been available out of the bullpen for the past few days. (He tossed 3 1/3 innings behind Means today.) Irvin spent most of the year in the starting staff but was briefly pushed to relief once Grayson Rodriguez returned from the injured list last week. Rodriguez slots in behind Corbin Burnes and alongside Kyle Bradish and Dean Kremer as Baltimore’s currently healthy starters.
AL East Notes: Kimbrel, Irvin, Kahnle, Whitlock
Craig Kimbrel blew a save and was charged with the loss in the Orioles‘ 7-6 defeat to the Athletics today, but the veteran closer’s health may be of greater concern. Kimbrel walked Darell Hernaiz and was then visited by the team trainer on the mound, but stayed in the game and allowed a homer to Kyle McCann. That prompted another trainer’s visit and Kimbrel’s departure, and manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko) postgame that Kimbrel was dealing with some upper back tightness. The right-hander was still receiving treatment and it isn’t yet known if a trip to the injured list might be in order.
Kimbrel has failed to convert either of his last two save opportunities, marking his first blown save since his first appearances of the season. In between, he reeled off seven saves and a perfect 0.00 in 10 innings of work, and even today’s outing only boosts his ERA to 3.18 for the season. Overall, the 35-year-old has performed as expected after signing a one-year deal worth $13MM in guaranteed money last winter, as Baltimore was looking for a ninth-inning specialist after Felix Bautista was lost to Tommy John surgery. If Kimbrel needs some recovery time, Yennier Cano or Danny Coulombe are the likeliest candidates to move into closer duties, which would then necessitate another arm being shuffled into the bullpen. One possible relief candidate might be starter Albert Suarez, who is out of minor league options but has pitched so well in fill-in starter duty that the O’s likely don’t want to expose him to waivers in order to move him back to Triple-A. With Kyle Bradish and John Means nearing returns from the IL, the Orioles are in the enviable position of having too many good starters, yet as we’ve potentially seen with this Kimbrel situation, injuries have a way of quickly solving any surpluses.
More from the AL East…
- Speaking of Orioles starters, x-rays were negative on Cole Irvin‘s left middle finger were negative after he was hit by a comebacker in Saturday’s 7-0 win over Oakland. Irvin told Kubatko and other media that he isn’t feeling any pain, so there seems to be no concern that he’d miss his next start. With a 3.49 ERA over 28 1/3 innings, Irvin has also pitched well enough to make a case for keeping his rotation job when Bradish and Means are healthy.
- Tommy Kahnle has yet to pitch this season due to shoulder inflammation, as one setback already delayed the Yankees‘ initial plan to activate him from the 15-day IL when first eligible. However, manager Aaron Boone told MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch and other reporters that Kahnle threw a simulated inning of live batting practice yesterday, and is planning to throw off the mound again in a few days’ time. Kahnle posted a 2.66 ERA in 40 2/3 relief innings for New York last season, in between a season-opening 60-day IL stint due to biceps tendinitis and then more shoulder inflammation that prematurely ended his season in September.
- An oblique strain sent Garrett Whitlock to the 15-day injured list back on April 17, and it looks as if the Red Sox righty-hander will be sidelined beyond just a minimal stint. Manager Alex Cora told reporters (including MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith) that Whitlock has been playing catch “but he still feels it….So no mound progression for him.” Given the tricky nature of oblique injuries, it might’ve counted as a surprise if Whitlock had missed only 15 days, and it isn’t yet clear when he might be back in action. Whitlock was looking tremendous prior to his injury, posting a 1.96 ERA over his first four starts and 18 1/3 innings of the season.
Orioles To Recall Grayson Rodriguez
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters, including Dan Connolly of sportsnaut.net, today that right-handed flamethrower Grayson Rodriguez is slated to start tomorrow’s game against the Dodgers.
A consensus top ten prospect in the sport entering the 2023 campaign, Rodriguez first received the call to the big leagues early this season but struggled badly across ten starts, with a 7.35 ERA and 5.93 FIP in 45 1/3 innings of work. That performance saw him optioned to the minors at the end of May. In seven starts since returning to Triple-A, Rodriguez has dominated to the tune of a 1.69 ERA with a fantastic 36.5% strikeout rate in 37 1/3 innings of work. That level of dominance indicates that Rodriguez has little else to gain from additional reps in the minors, making today’s news that Rodriguez will return to the big league rotation a natural next step.
If Rodriguez is able to live up to the promise of his Triple-A results and prospect pedigree at the major league level, it would be nothing short of transformative for the Orioles’ rotation. While strong performances in the lineup and bullpen have propelled the club to an excellent 56-35 record so far this season, a mediocre rotation has held the club back in their pursuit of the division-leading Rays for the AL East crown. Orioles starts rank just 18th in the majors in ERA and bottom five in the AL in terms of fWAR this season, with the likes of Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, and Kyle Gibson offering performances closer to serviceable than dominant.
By calling up Rodriguez two weeks before the trade deadline on August 1, the Orioles will be able to see the 23-year-old hurler make multiple starts before trade season comes to an end. That’ll give the club valuable information about how much he can be relied on to make an impact for the club as Baltimore eyes a return to postseason play for the first time since 2016. The Orioles have long been expected to add to their rotation ahead of the coming trade deadline, but a dominant showing from the youngster could give the club’s front office additional confidence in pursuing a top-of-the-market option such as Marcus Stroman, Lucas Giolito or Jordan Montgomery to pair with Rodriguez at the front of the club’s rotation.
Rodriguez is already on the 40-man roster, but a corresponding move will nonetheless be required prior to tomorrow’s game in order to make room for the right-hander on the active roster. Connolly notes that left-hander Cole Irvin will move to the bullpen going forward to make room for Rodriguez in the club’s rotation. After being acquired from the A’s in an offseason trade, Irvin had a disastrous start to his Orioles career with a 10.66 ERA across his first three starts of the season. That led the club to demote him in early April, though in 25 innings of work in the big leagues since then he’s posted a far more palatable 2.88 ERA and 4.04 FIP. He figures to offer the Orioles a solid multi-inning option out of the bullpen going forward.
AL East Notes: Crawford, Bleis, Blue Jays, Irvin
The Red Sox have given right-hander Kutter Crawford a vote of confidence as a starting pitcher, as The Boston Globe’s Pete Abraham relays that the Sox are planning on keeping Crawford in the rotation going forward after a pair of short starts since joining the rotation at the beginning of June. While the starts lasted just 40 and 58 pitches, respectively, the overall numbers have been solid, as Crawford allowed three earned runs on seven hits and zero walks while striking out six.
It’s been a strong season for Crawford, who has posted a 2.20 ERA, 3.00 FIP, and 24% strikeout rate in 32 2/3 innings of work after a four inning, seven run outing to open the season against the Pirates. The success is particularly welcome after the 27-year-old struggled in a swing role for 77 1/3 innings last season, posting a 5.47 ERA and 4.34 FIP. With Crawford now in the rotation, the Red Sox still have Corey Kluber, Nick Pivetta, and Josh Winckowski in the bullpen as potential multi-inning relief options.
More from around the AL East:
- Sticking with the Red Sox, top outfield prospect Miguel Bleis is expected to miss the rest of the 2023 season after undergoing shoulder surgery, according to Chris Henrique of Beyond The Monster. A consensus top 100 prospect who ranks as high as 39th over at Fangraphs, Bleis struggled in his first taste of full-season ball in 2023, slashing just .230/.282/.325 in 142 plate appearances at Single-A this season. Now sidelined until 2024, the 19-year-old Bleis was already expected to be several years away from the majors, though it’s possible the coming surgery slows his timeline further.
- After 2022 AL Cy Young finalist Alek Manoah was sent to the minors earlier this week, the Blue Jays are expected to ramp up their search for external pitching options, even as the 2023 trade deadline is still several weeks away. GM Ross Atkins told reporters, including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, that the club has “intensified those discussions over the last several weeks”, referring to the front office’s exploration of external options for the pitching staff. Reinforcements could provide a huge boost to Toronto as they’re stuck at fourth place in the AL East race despite a strong 36-29 record, thanks in part to the struggles of key contributors like Manoah, Yimi Garcia, and Yusei Kikuchi.
- The Orioles recalled left-hander Cole Irvin to start today’s game against the Royals, per a team announcement. Acquired this past offseason in a trade with the A’s, Ivin has not built on a strong 2022 campaign (3.98 ERA in 181 innings) during his first season as an Oriole, posting a 10.38 ERA in 13 innings of work in the majors. That being said, his work at Triple-A has been much better, with a 3.21 ERA in seven starts (42 innings). With youngster Grayson Rodriguez relegated to Triple-A for the foreseeable future, it’s possible Irvin could earn himself a more permanent spot in the rotation with a quality performance this afternoon.
Orioles Activate Mychal Givens
The Orioles announced a pair of roster moves this morning, as the club activated right-hander Mychal Givens from the injured list and optioned left-hander Cole Irvin to Triple-A.
Givens is poised to make his 2023 regular season debut, as the righty opened the season on the injured list due to knee inflammation. It will be a homecoming for the 33-year-old veteran, who was drafted by Baltimore in the second round of the 2009 draft and spent the first five and a half seasons of his career with the Orioles, racking up 31 saves to go with a 3.32 ERA in 336 innings for the club before he was traded to the Rockies part way through the 2020 campaign.
Since departing the Orioles, Givens has pitched for the Cubs, Reds, and Mets in addition to the Rockies. With a 3.62 ERA and 4.62 FIP over 121 2/3 innings during his two and a half seasons in the National League, Givens inked a one-year, $5MM pact with his original team and returned to Baltimore. Now that he’s healthy, Givens figures to join the likes of Felix Bautista, Bryan Baker, and Danny Coulombe as a late-inning arm in the Orioles bullpen.
As for Irvin, the lefty threw just seven pitches since being recalled from Triple-A last week, allowing one hit and no walks without recording a strikeout in the one out appearance. Irvin had been a member of the rotation in Baltimore to open the 2023 campaign, but pitched to a worrisome 10.66 ERA in three starts that led the Orioles to pull the plug and send him to Norfolk after just two weeks. He figures to continue to act as pitching depth for the Orioles for the foreseeable future.
Orioles Recall Cole Irvin
Left-hander Cole Irvin is back with the Orioles, as the team announced Tuesday that he’s been recalled from Triple-A Norfolk. Right-hander Logan Gillaspie has been optioned to Norfolk in a corresponding move.
Baltimore’s decision to option Irvin to Norfolk came as something of a surprise earlier this season. The Orioles’ acquisition of Irvin was one of just two moves made to fortify the starting rotation over the winter (along with the Kyle Gibson signing), and the team parted with an infield prospect of some note (Darell Hernaiz) in order to acquire him. There’s no getting around how rough Irvin’s start to the season was — 15 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings through three starts — but his track record and the manner in which the O’s acquired him led many to presume he’d have a longer leash to get back on track.
To Irvin’s credit, he’s largely done that in Norfolk. The lefty took the ball five times for the Tides and pitched 31 innings with a sharp 3.19 ERA. His 13.4% strikeout rate is still a red flag, but Irvin also only walked 3.1% of his opponents in Triple-A.
Strikeouts have never been a big part of Irvin’s game anyhow. He’s spent the past two seasons anchoring the Athletics’ rotation in Oakland, making 62 starts with a 4.11 ERA, 16.8% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate. Irvin, who’s averaged 90.9 mph on his fastball in his career, has succeeded more with precision and command than by overpowering his opponents.
The role Irvin will occupy with the O’s this time around hasn’t been formally laid out. Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun tweets that he could provide some length out of the bullpen for the time being, although one would imagine that a return to the starting staff could be in order if Irvin pitches well in a long relief capacity. Baltimore starters have combined for a 5.08 ERA this season, although Irvin’s own struggles weigh into that number. Over the past month, the O’s have used Gibson, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish and top prospect Grayson Rodriguez in the rotation, and that quintet has combined for a more palatable 4.28 mark. Rodriguez (6.51 ERA), Gibson (5.08) and Bradish (4.88) have all posted lackluster bottom-line results in that time.
From a service time vantage point, Irvin’s demotion isn’t likely to change his trajectory. He entered the season with two years, 120 days of big league service time, meaning he needed only 52 days in the Majors to reach three years of service and become arbitration-eligible following the current season. It’s highly likely he’ll hit that mark this year even with a month-long stay in Norfolk. That’ll keep him on pace to become a free agent following the the 2026 season. This is Irvin’s final minor league option year, so the team can technically shuttle him between Norfolk and the Majors throughout the season if they like, but if Irvin can round back into his 2021-22 form he’ll have a clear role on the big league staff.
Orioles Option Cole Irvin
April 14: The Orioles have now officially announced these moves, optioning Irvin and placing Akin on the paternity list while recalling Watkins and Canó.
April 13: In a surprising move, the Orioles are optioning starter Cole Irvin to Triple-A Norfolk, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (Twitter link). According to Kubatko, the club is also placing reliever Keegan Akin on the paternity list and recalling Spenser Watkins and Yennier Canó from Norfolk.
The most notable of the transactions by far is Irvin’s demotion. The southpaw was one of the Orioles’ biggest acquisitions of the offseason. Baltimore traded well-regarded infield prospect Darell Hernaiz to the A’s in a deal to plug Irvin into the rotation, with pitching prospect Kyle Virbitsky also going to the O’s. The Oregon product had been a productive mid-rotation arm for Oakland over the past two seasons. He reached 30-plus starts and surpassed 175 innings in both seasons, combining for a decent 4.11 ERA.
Those results in Oakland weren’t without caveats. He never missed many bats, instead relying on excellent control and a low batting average on balls in play. Oakland’s spacious home ballpark certainly seemed to aid him in that regard, as he kept hitters to a .243/.288/.355 line at home while surrendering a .285/.330/.491 mark in road contests.
Baltimore looked past those splits, counting on Irvin’s control to carry over in a more hitter-friendly environment. While it’s far too early to make definitive judgments about that trade, it’s hard to envision a much worse beginning to Irvin’s tenure as an Oriole. He’s been tattooed for 15 runs in his first 12 2/3 innings. Irvin has surrendered a pair of homers and uncharacteristically walked eight batters. The final straw came this afternoon, when his old club teed off for six runs in four innings during an eventual 8-7 Baltimore win.
The O’s were going to be faced with a decision on the starting staff in the coming days. Righty Kyle Bradish is likely to return from the injured list next week. Manager Brandon Hyde suggested a few days ago the club wasn’t interested in going to a six-man rotation. Once Bradish is reinstated, he’ll presumably slot in alongside Kyle Gibson, Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer and top prospect Grayson Rodriguez in the rotation.
It’s likely Irvin will find himself back in the mix before long. In the absence of any injuries, pitchers can return to the big leagues after 15 days on optional assignment. If another player lands on the IL, the O’s could recall him within that 15-day window. Even without injuries, Irvin could be back in the big leagues by the end of the month. Regardless, it’s a frustrating development for an O’s front office that surely envisioned their trade pickup as a stabilizing presence in an uncertain rotation.
The demotion doesn’t seem likely to meaningfully affect Irvin from a service time perspective. He entered the season with two years and 120 days of MLB service. Players eclipse a full service year at the 172-day mark, so the southpaw only needs 52 days on the MLB roster this year to surpass the three-year threshold. The optional assignment would have to last for multiple months for him to fall short of that, in which case he’d be a non-tender candidate anyhow. As things stand, Irvin is set to reach arbitration for the first time next winter and won’t hit free agency until after the 2026 campaign.
Sorting Through The Orioles’ Rotation Options
The Orioles headed into the winter intent on adding a pair of veterans to the rotation, and while there was a substantial layoff between their first and second additions, with Kyle Gibson signing a one-year deal back on Dec. 5 and Cole Irvin not joining the staff until last Friday’s trade. That gives the O’s a pair of veterans who are plenty capable of eating up innings while still also leaving a fairly wide-open window for several younger arms to pitch their way into the team’s plans.
In all likelihood, the Orioles will wind up using ten or more starters over the course of the season. It’s commonplace for teams to cycle through far more than the five (or six) members of the Opening Day rotation — particularly younger teams like Baltimore, where the rotation will be composed primarily of yet-unproven starters and/or prospects whose workloads will be handled with care.
Locks
Kyle Gibson, RHP: Whether by design or by happenstance, the decision to bring in Gibson over 2022 staff innings leader Jordan Lyles wound up being a cost-neutral gambit, which will lead to inevitable comparisons between the two. The Orioles bought Lyles’ $11MM club option out for $1MM, then turned around and invested the exact same $10MM they saved into a one-year deal with Gibson.
The 35-year-old Gibson, like Lyles, is a workhorse by today’s standards. He’s averaged 29.875 starts per 162-game season, dating back to 2014, and made a full slate of 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season. He has a below-average strikeout rate with solid command and above-average ground-ball tendencies. The O’s are going to count on him for 30-plus starts and 160-plus innings, although if they’re not in contention when the trade deadline rolls around, it’s easy to see them putting Gibson on the market.
Cole Irvin, LHP: For the second time in as many weeks, I’m listing Irvin as a “lock” in a team’s rotation while profiling their various options on the back end of the staff. As noted on that rundown of the A’s rotation, there was always a chance that Irvin could be moved, though a midseason deal felt likelier. The O’s instead jumped to add Irvin as a durable source of innings.
Over the past two seasons, he’s made 62 starts of 4.11 ERA ball with a well below-average 16.8% strikeout rate but a superb 5.2% walk rate as a member of Oakland’s rotation. That’ll be the type of production they’re looking for not just this year but for the next several seasons. Irvin is controlled for another four years and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until next offseason.
There’s some risk in acquiring Irvin, who’s had far more success at the spacious Oakland Coliseum than on the road. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, the lefty owns a 3.44 ERA pitching in Oakland, where opponents have batted just .243/.288/.355 against him in nearly 800 plate appearances. In that same timeframe, Irvin’s road ERA is a more alarming 4.88, and opponents have pounced on him for a .285/.330/.491 slash. The O’s recently made their left field dimensions quite a bit more pitcher-friendly, but Irvin will still be facing some righty-heavy lineups within the AL East.
Pitchers who made 15+ starts in 2022
Dean Kremer, RHP: Kremer, 27, finished second on the Orioles with 125 1/3 innings pitched and notched a tidy 3.23 ERA last season despite a tepid 17% strikeout rate. Kremer, acquired from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade, doesn’t miss bats or keep the ball on the ground, but he has a better-than-average walk rate. Any regression in his 0.79 HR/9 mark or his 77.8% left-on-base rate — he entered the season at 2.12 and 65.1%, respectively — could spike his ERA closer to his 4.54 SIERA. That said, Kremer at least looks the part of a back-of-the-rotation arm. And, now that he’s poised to take on a larger workload, he should at least be a decent source of average-ish innings.
Kyle Bradish, RHP: One of four minor leaguers acquired in the trade sending Dylan Bundy to the Angels, Bradish ranked third on the 2022 O’s with 117 2/3 innings pitched. He missed more bats and generated more grounders than Kremer but was also more prone to both walks and home runs. Bradish’s 4.90 ERA isn’t much to look at, but while fielding-independent metrics feel Kremer had some good fortune in ’22, the opposite is true of Bradish, whose FIP, SIERA, etc. are all quite a bit lower than his earned run average. Both pitchers seem capable of turning in an ERA in the low- or mid-4.00s over 150-plus innings.
Spenser Watkins, RHP: A former 30th-round pick by the Tigers, Watkins signed with the O’s as a minor league free agent in Jan. 2021 and debuted as a 29-year-old rookie later that season. He tallied 105 1/3 innings for the 2022 Orioles, posting a 4.70 ERA along the way. Among the 156 pitchers with at least 150 innings thrown since 2021, no one has posted a lower strikeout rate than Watkins’ 13.7%. His 7.9% swinging-strike rate is fifth-lowest among that group. Watkins has good command and has posted solid numbers in Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he feels like more of a depth option based on his big league work to date.
Tyler Wells, RHP: Baltimore’s most effective starter for much of the 2022 season, Wells carried a 3.09 ERA through his first 16 starts but needed a .225 average on balls in play to get there. That minimal BABIP and a 16.7% strikeout rate made the ERA look fairly dubious, and Wells indeed struggled mightily over his final few starts of the season. It should be noted that he missed more than a month due to a side injury and landed back on the shelf due to shoulder trouble to close out the year, but he nonetheless yielded a 7.39 ERA over his final 28 innings (seven starts). None of Wells, Kremer or Bradish miss bats at a particularly high level, nor do they possess elite command or ground-ball tendencies. They each have some appealing traits, however, and any of this trio could be a viable fourth/fifth starter.
Austin Voth, RHP: Continuing on that trend, Voth is another fly-ball pitcher with passable but not eye-catching strikeout and walk numbers. Claimed off waivers from the Nationals in early June, Voth made 17 starts and five relief appearances, pitching to a 3.04 ERA in that time. He’s not going to keep stranding 82% of the baserunners he allows — that’s 10 percentage points above the league average and above Voth’s career mark prior to 2022 — but he has the makings of a back-end starter, as he’s shown on occasion with the Nats in the past. Voth is out of minor league options, so he’s going to be on the roster either as a starter or as a swingman.
The Top Prospects
Grayson Rodriguez, RHP: The arm on which so many Orioles fans are pinning their hopes, the 23-year-old Rodriguez might have already made his big league debut were it not for a lat strain that sidelined him for half the 2022 season. Rodriguez, selected with the No. 11 pick of the 2018 draft, ranks among the sport’s top 15 overall prospects at each of Baseball America (6), MLB.com (7), ESPN (12) and The Athletic (15). A 6’5″, 220-pound righty armed with a four-pitch mix that’s headlined by an upper-90s heater and elite changeup, Rodriguez has genuine front-of-the-rotation potential.
Rodriguez is regarded as one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects, and now that the new CBA actually reward teams for promoting prospects via potential draft compensation based on Rookie of the Year voting, Rodriguez will have a legitimate chance to make the Opening Day rotation. The O’s may want to be cautious, as that lat strain limited him to just 75 2/3 innings in 2022 and a jump to a full season of MLB starts would probably more than double that total. Rodriguez might be the organization’s best starter right now, even though he hasn’t made his MLB debut. He posted a combined 2.62 ERA across three minor league levels and did so with a mammoth 36.6% strikeout rate against a 9.3% walk rate. He’s going to make his MLB debut in 2023 — it’s just a matter of when.
DL Hall, LHP: Unlike Rodriguez, Hall has already made his debut at the MLB level, although it didn’t go as the team had hoped. The former No. 21 overall pick pitched in 11 games — 10 of them relief appearances — but was tagged for nine runs on 17 hits and six walks. The resulting 5.93 ERA wasn’t particularly encouraging, but Hall fanned 19 opponents (29.7%) and issued walks at a lower clip in the Majors than he had in Triple-A (9.4% versus 14.2%).
Command issues have long been the primary flaw scouts see in Hall — a 6’2″ lefty with a heater that averaged 96.4 mph during that MLB debut and multiple plus or better secondary pitches. Baseball America pegs Hall’s fastball as an 80 on the 20-80 scale, while also crediting him with a plus-plus slider, a plus curve and a plus changeup. Unfortunately, all of that is accompanied by well below-average command. Hall has walked 13.4% of his opponents in the minors, and in his 18 minor league starts this past season, he completed six innings just once. Some of that is the Orioles being cautious with an arm they hold in high regard, but Hall averaged 75 pitches per outing despite averaging under four innings per start. Certainly, he could stand to be more efficient.
Last year’s 98 innings were a career-high for Hall, who’s also missed ample time due to injury in his pro career. Between the lack of innings and the shaky command, many scouting reports feel he’s likelier to be a dynamic reliever than a starter, but the O’s will likely give him some considerable leash as a starter because the ceiling is so high.
Other options on the 40-man
Mike Baumann, RHP: The 27-year-old Baumann was one of the organization’s best pitching prospects as recently as two years ago, but a flexor strain cost him time and he hasn’t topped 100 innings in either of the past two seasons. The O’s have begun working Baumann out of the bullpen more frequently, and given the number of rotation options the organization has, that could be a better path to the big leagues for him. There’s benefit to keeping him stretched out as a starter, of course, but Baumann made just 13 starts to 20 relief appearances last year.
Bruce Zimmermann, LHP: A local product the O’s acquired in the trade that sent Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to the Braves back in 2018, Zimmermann has pitched in parts of three seasons for the O’s but never posted an ERA south of 5.00. In 145 MLB frames, he carries a 5.69 ERA (5.78 FIP, 4.43 SIERA) with a low 17.6% strikeout rate but a strong 5.7% walk rate. Zimmermann has averaged just 91.3 mph on his heater, and opponents have teed off on both that pitch and his changeup, clubbing an average of 2.23 homers per nine innings against the southpaw. Zimmermann still has a pair of option years remaining and has been good in Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he needs to find a way to curtail his issues with the long ball.
Drew Rom, LHP: The O’s selected Rom to the 40-man roster back in November to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. The 2018 fourth-rounder split the 2022 season between Double-A and Triple-A, logging a combined 4.43 ERA with a 27.1% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and solid ground-ball tendencies. He’s not an overpowering lefty, but he’s pretty close to big league ready and the O’s clearly felt he’d have been poached in the Rule 5 had he gone unprotected. There are a lot of candidates for innings in Baltimore, but he’ll be in the mix to debut this year.
Recovering from injury
John Means, LHP: Baltimore’s best starter from 2019-21, Means logged a 3.73 ERA in 345 1/3 innings during that time and was named the Orioles’ Opening Day starter in 2022. He made just two starts last year before an elbow injury shelved him, however, and Means underwent Tommy John surgery in late April. That’ll take him out of the equation early in the year, but the O’s can hope for Means to return at some point over the summer. He only has two years of club control remaining.
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As things stand, the Orioles have two veteran locks (Gibson, Irvin), a series of righties who achieved solid results despite middling K/BB and batted-ball profiles in 2022 (Kremer, Bradish, Wells, Voth) and a pair electric prospects (Rodriguez, Hall) — the former of which is arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball.
It’s a promising group, but the O’s will need to convert on Rodriguez and either see Hall improve his command or another young arm (e.g. Cade Povich) take a pronounced step forward in 2023. Baltimore’s system is rife with high-end bats but less stocked with arms. A rotation featuring Rodriguez (assuming he hits the ground running) and a host of No. 4 types is enough to compete, but it’s still a bit surprising that the team didn’t land a higher-profile arm this winter in an effort to bolster the starting staff. Perhaps the O’s are confident that an incumbent arm is on the cusp of a breakout, but right now Baltimore’s lineup looks more formidable than its rotation.
Orioles Acquire Cole Irvin From A’s
The Orioles have acquired left-handed pitcher Cole Irvin in a trade with the Athletics, per announcements from both clubs. Right-handed pitching prospect Kyle Virbitsky will also head to Baltimore while infield prospect Darell Hernaiz is heading to the A’s.
On one hand, this move comes as a surprise, since there had been no previous indication the A’s were shopping Irvin or that they were talking to the Orioles. On the other hand, it’s not shocking to see the club continue tearing down the roster, since they’ve been aggressively committed to that path for the past year. Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt were all traded just before the 2022 campaign, while Frankie Montas was dealt midseason and Sean Murphy this winter.
With the club seemingly willing to strip the roster down to the studs, any established Oakland player is at least a speculative trade candidate. There was no real rush to move Irvin, since he still had four years of club control remaining, but he will qualify for arbitration at the end of this season and would start to make a more significant salary. It appears that they received an offer they liked enough to pull the ripcord early and jettison Irvin from the roster in yet another future-focused move.
The Orioles have been looking for rotation upgrades all winter and were reportedly still on the hunt earlier this week. They haven’t been running out huge payrolls in recent years so Irvin’s low salary and years of cheap control were surely appealing to them. They made one modest upgrade to their rotation this offseason by signing veteran Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10MM deal but have otherwise been quiet until today. Irvin will quickly become the club’s second-most experienced starter behind Gibson.
Irvin, 29 next week, was a Phillies’ draftee and made his MLB debut with them. He made 19 appearances over 2019 and 2020 but with a bloated 6.75 ERA in that time. But his minor league results were much better and the A’s took a shot by sending cash considerations to Philadelphia to get him. The change of scenery went very well for him, as he made 62 starts over the past two seasons with a 4.11 ERA over 359 1/3 innings.
This new change of scenery will have risk for the O’s, though. Irvin has succeeded in Oakland over the past couple of years with a low-strikeout, pitch-to-contact approach. He’s only walked 5.2% of the batters he’s faced over those two campaigns, which is a very strong number. For reference, the league average for starters last year was 7.5%. But he’s only punched out hitters at a 16.8% rate for Oakland, well below last year’s 21.6% league average. His 37.6% ground ball over that span was also a bit below par. That kind of profile has worked for him in the pitcher-friendly confines of Oakland Coliseum but might not be as effective in different conditions. It’s perhaps notable that Irvin has posted a 3.44 ERA at home over the past two years but a 4.88 mark outside of Oakland.
The O’s are apparently undeterred by those splits and have added Irvin to their starting mix, where he and Gibson should take two of the spots. The rest of the rotation will be less certain, with options like Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Bruce Zimmermann, Mike Baumann and Spenser Watkins on the 40-man. Each of those guys have a bit of MLB experience but inconsistent results have prevented them from truly establishing themselves as big leaguers. There’s also Grayson Rodriguez, who is considered one of the best pitching prospects in the sport but he’s yet to make his MLB debut and missed most of last year due to a lat strain. John Means could be a factor down the line but likely not until midseason due to undergoing Tommy John surgery in April of last year. It’s a group with a lot of unknowns but the club will hope to get some reliability out of Irvin and Gibson while they sort through the rest and see who separates themselves from the pack. In addition to Irvin, the O’s will add Virbitsky to their system. The 24-year-old was a 17th round draft pick in 2021. He posted a 4.63 ERA last year between Class-A and High-A, striking out 25.7% of batters faced while walking 5.5%. He’ll add some starting depth to the lower levels of their system.
By letting go of Irvin and Virbitsky, the A’s are adding an intriguing young player in Hernaiz. The 21-year-old was a fifth-round selection of the O’s in 2019. Baseball America ranked him the #25 Orioles prospect going into 2020, highlighting his athleticism but noting that the lack of power could be an issue for him. That seems to have played out in his minor league time so far. After the minors were canceled in 2020, Hernaiz spent 2021 in Class-A, hitting six home runs in 94 games. He did steal 22 bases but his .277/.333/.358 batting line was a bit below average, with his wRC+ coming in at 92. In 2022, he shot up three levels, going from Class-A to High-A and Double-A. He got into 105 games between those three levels and stole 32 bases with 12 home runs. His combined batting line of .273/.341/.438 resulted in a 112 wRC+. He’s split his time between second base, third base and shortstop and will slot into Oakland’s infield prospect mix. He struggled in his first 13 Double-A games and will likely head back to that level to start this season. He’ll be Rule 5 eligible at the end of the upcoming season.
The O’s have plenty of infield prospects, with the likes of Gunnar Henderson, Coby Mayo, Joey Ortiz, Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg and Connor Norby some of the exciting youngsters in the system. It seems they felt they could part with Hernaiz and still be in good shape there, whereas the A’s have continued to bolster their farm by subtracting from their major league club. Without Irvin, their rotation will consist of offseason signees Shintaro Fujinami and Drew Rucinski, incumbents Paul Blackburn and James Kaprielian, as well as a huge pile of unestablished options who will be jockeying for playing time as the season rolls along.
Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the deal before the official announcement (Twitter links).
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.