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Dave Martinez

Nationals Notes: Martinez, Turner, Robles

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Dave Martinez already broke new ground in Nationals’ managerial history by winning the World Series in 2019, but in 2021, he will again traverse new territory previously untrod by Nats’ managers: a fourth season on the job. Davey Johnson won Manager of the Year in 2012, Matt Williams won the award in 2014, and Dusty Baker became the first Nats’ manager to win back-to-back NL East titles in 2016 and 2017, but each of Martinez’s predecessors were let go before a fourth campaign (or third in the case of Williams and Baker).

Martinez figures to blow well past the three-year record previously held by Johnson, Jim Riggleman and Manny Acta. Martinez was given a contract extension last year, freeing him to take the long view in the development of his young players, including superstar Juan Soto, writes Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. The Nationals – reactionary to disappointing playoff losses in the past – seem to have a new view under Martinez, weathering a difficult 2020 without missing a beat. They’ll enter 2021 expecting to contend, and Martinez will look to check another box off his list by winning an NL East title.

Part of his forward-thinking approach is mulling new ways to maximize production from his superstars Soto and Trea Turner. This season, the question is whether or not to move Turner from the leadoff spot, writes Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. The Nationals don’t necessarily have another prime candidate to step into the top spot of the lineup, however. Martinez would like to try Victor Robles at the top of the order against southpaws, writes Zuckerman. Beyond a small sample size of success leading off, Robles has done little to prove himself a natural candidate as a table-setter. He owns a 5.3 percent career walk rate and a 36.7 percent first pitch swing percentage – a good deal more aggressive than the league average of 28.3 percent.

Viewing Turner as a middle-of-the-order bat is sound, however. Though he’s mostly known for being one of the fastest players in the game, Turner’s bat carries serious thunder: Turner boasts a .216 ISO and 130 wRC+ over the past two seasons. He’s performed 18 percent better than average with the bat for his career. Turner has largely been underrated in part because his most impressive performances have come in seasons cut short either because of a late promotion (2016), injury (2019) or the pandemic (2020). It was his return from injury that largely prompted the Nationals magical run in 2019, however, as Turner famously returned in May to hit .296/.352/.487 despite a broken finger. The Nationals are relying heavily on Turner to be the offensive superstar he was in 2020, when he was on pace for a 7+ fWAR season at a 162-game pace.

Quick Hits: Nationals, Schwarber, Martinez, Royals, Dozier, Red Sox, Prospects, Blalock, Yorke

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Kyle Schwarber is now a member of the Washington Nationals, in no small part because of Nats manager Dave Martinez, per ESPN. Schwarber, of course, won a World Series with Martinez as his bench coach in Chicago. In fact, Martinez was the Cubs bench coach for the first three years of Schwarber’s career. Said Schwarber, per ESPN, “I love [Martinez] to death. I’m so excited to play for this guy. He only wants to win.” Washington hopes Martinez can help Schwarber recapture some of the magic that made him a star in Chicago. Schwarber will also reunite with Starlin Castro, with whom he played as a rookie on the 2015 Cubs. Elsewhere…

  • Royals Assistant General Managers Scott Sharp and Jin Wong remain active in reaching out to agents about potential free agents, writes MLB.com’s Jason Beck. The Royals have been one of the more proactive teams in the Majors so far this winter, coming to terms with Mike Minor, Greg Holland, Michael A. Taylor, and Carlos Santana to Major League deals, all before the new year. The Royals are still potentially on the lookout for a left-handed bat, notes Beck. With just about $87MM in payroll commitments, the Royals have just a couple million before matching last year’s payroll. It wasn’t long ago, however, that Kansas City ran up payrolls over the century mark, so it’s possible they could extend yet another Major League contract, should the right deal fall their way.
  • Ryan O’Hearn, Franchy Cordero, and Nicky Lopez are the only pure left-handed bats on the roster, and only the latter has a guaranteed spot as a regular player. Adalberto Mondesi and Carlos Santana are switch-hitters who will be in the lineup every day, but both have traditionally fared better hitting from the right side. In terms of their targets, Beck also notes that the Royals are growing comfortable with Hunter Dozier as the regular third baseman. All that in mind, a lefty corner outfielder would fit nicely onto the roster. Should they not find a bat at an appropriate price point, however, the Royals are believers in the long-term ability of Khalil Lee, who is a candidate for playing time in 2021.
  • Red Sox prospect Bradley Blalock was a 32nd round draft choice in 2019, but after adding 10 pounds and roughly six miles per hour to his fastball, the 20-year-old right-hander will enter 2021 as a player to watch, per Alex Speier of Baseball America. Blalock is more-or-less just beginning his professional career, having signed out of high school for $250K in July of 2019. The Georgia native made just four appearances in rookie ball, giving up five earned runs on five hits and four walks while striking out four over 6 2/3 innings. Elsewhere in the system, the prospect gurus at MLB.com name Nick Yorke as a player who could rise quickly through Boston’s system, writing, “The California prep product has the sweet right-handed swing, bat speed, pitch recognition and discipline to potentially become a .300 hitter with 20 homers per season.” Yorke was the No. 17 overall selection of the 2020 draft.

 

Nationals Extend Dave Martinez

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SEPTEMBER 26: Washington officially announced a “multi-year” extension for Martinez.

SEPTEMBER 25: The Nationals have agreed to a contract extension with manager Dave Martinez, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). It’s a three-year, $7.5MM contract that will take effect in 2021, Bob Nightengale of USA Today was among those to tweet. His previous three-year contract was set to expire at season’s end, and the Nats had yet to formally make a call on Martinez’s 2021 club option or on a lengthier deal. The new contract will make quite the birthday present for Martinez, who turns 56 years old tomorrow.

Typically, clubs seek to avoid having a manager or general manager navigate a season with the dreaded “lame duck” status — i.e. no contract in place for the following year — but the Nationals have repeatedly bucked that trend by waiting until the eleventh hour to make decisions one way or another on both their managers and GMs. The Nats didn’t extend general manager Mike Rizzo, whose contract didn’t even have a 2021 option, until three weeks ago.

No club in baseball has had more managerial turnover in recent years than the Nationals, but it appears that last year’s World Series win will bring about the type of continuity this current generation of Nats players has yet to see. Martinez became the sixth man to manage a Nationals game in an eight-year span (2011-18) when he was hired, and since moving to D.C., the Nats have never had a skipper last more than three seasons on the job. The Lerner family opted to replace former skipper Dusty Baker even after Rizzo reportedly fought to keep him in place, and Baker only landed with the Nats after the club alienated Bud Black with a lowball, one-year offer when he had emerged as the favorite following the interview process.

Replacing Baker with Martinez, previously the Cubs’ bench coach, has worked out for the Nationals. Despite losing Bryce Harper to free agency before 2019, the Martinez-led club won 93 games and its first title. On the other hand, this year has been a struggle for the Nationals, who saw star third baseman Anthony Rendon leave in free agency and have gone almost entirely without injured World Series MVP-wining right-hander Stephen Strasburg. At 23-34, the Nationals won’t defend their title in this year’s playoffs, but that championship was understandably enough to convince the club that Martinez is the right person for the job. Along with their World Series win, Martinez has guided the Nats to a 198-183 regular-season record during his tenure in D.C.

Mike Rizzo Discusses Trea Turner, Dave Martinez

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Before the coronavirus put the baseball season on pause this spring, the Nationals and star shortstop Trea Turner engaged in extension talks, general manager Mike Rizzo confirmed to reporters (including Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington). Of course, the pandemic introduced plenty of economic uncertainty for all 30 clubs. Nevertheless, Rizzo expressed an interest in revisiting those discussions once he gets an opportunity to examine the organization’s financial “landscape” (via Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post).

The 27-year-old Turner has done nothing to dissuade the front office’s interest in keeping him in the fold long-term. He’s somewhat quietly putting up a fabulous season, hitting .368/.421/.632 with nine home runs and five stolen bases in 171 plate appearances. While he obviously won’t sustain a .393 batting average on balls in play, Turner has seemingly turned a corner offensively. He’s striking out at a career-low 14.6% clip and has hit significantly fewer pop-ups this season. For his career, Turner’s a .297/.354/.479 hitter (118 wRC+) with generally average defense at shortstop, positioning him as a 4-5 win player per 600 plate appearances.

Turner and the Nationals agreed on a $7.45MM salary to avoid arbitration this offseason, his second year of eligibility. The former Super Two player is currently slated to go through the process twice more (and figures to earn a nice raise this winter) before reaching free agency after 2022. His first would-be free agent year would be his age-30 season.

More immediately, Rizzo says he plans to turn his attention to the managerial chair. Skipper Dave Martinez is amidst the final guaranteed season of his three-year contract, although the club does possess an option on his services for 2021. Rizzo made clear today he hopes not to have to exercise that option, instead preferring to hammer out a long-term extension with Martinez (via Jessica Camerato of MLB.com). “That’s the plan going forward,” Rizzo said. “See if we can get something done (and) negotiate a longer-term deal with him that goes beyond just picking up the option.” The GM himself just inked an extension yesterday that’ll keep him in D.C. though 2023.

The Nationals have had something of a rocky history with managers, with the Lerner family ownership group notoriously reluctant to commit to skippers on long-term deals. Martinez, though, is the only manager to have led the franchise to a World Series title, so it’d be a shock to see the parties not eventually come to terms on an extension.

Juan Soto Out With Elbow Soreness

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Washington Nationals manager Dave Martinez is giving Juan Soto a couple of days off, per Jessica Camerato of MLB.com (via Twitter). Soto has been experiencing some elbow soreness. The Nationals’ young superstar underwent and MRI, but the results were good, so Martinez is just giving Soto a couple of days to rest and recover.

Though the Nationals have face-planted in their title defense season, there’s been no such hangover for the 21-year-old Soto. Soto is currently the major-league leader in slugging (.758) and OPS (1.211). He’s slashing .354/.453/.758 with 11 long balls in 117 plate appearances. Soto has more walks (17) than strikeouts (16) while registering in the top 1% for exit velocity (94.2 mph) and top 2 percent for hard hit percentage (55.4%).

Soto rested for both games of yesterday’s doubleheader against the Braves, and he figures to get another day or two to rest his elbow. Especially since the Nats are just one game ahead of the Pirates for the worst record in the National League, they are likely to value Soto’s long-term health over any benefit they’ll get from rushing him into action over the final few weeks of what’s bound to be a lost season. Washington sits 5 games out of a wild card spot, and while that deficit isn’t impossible to overcome, they would need to turn around their play drastically enough to leapfrog five other teams in the NL.

Soto missed the first couple of days of the season after testing positive for COVID-19, though he was asymptomatic.

Quick Hits: Yankees, Chapman, Rays, Morton, Nationals, Rizzo, Martinez

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The New York Yankees will make a decision about Aroldis Chapman’s timeline to return to action after a throwing session on Tuesday, per ESPN’s Marly Rivera. Chapman has yet to make an appearance this season. He tested positive for COVID-19 back on July 11th after showing mild symptoms. Chapman has been working his way back to full strength and hopes to return to the back end of the Yanks bullpen shortly. Last season, Chapman put together another top-notch campaign with 37 saves in 60 games and a 2.21 ERA/2.28 FIP while striking out 13.4 batters per nine innings.

  • Charlie Morton of the Tampa Bay Rays left his start today with right shoulder inflammation, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com. The Rays do not appear to be overly concerned about Morton in the long-term. The 36-year-old hasn’t gotten off to a great start with a 5.52 ERA across three starts, though it’s obviously s small sample, and a 4.06 FIP isn’t quite so pessimistic of his performance.
  • The Washington Nationals aren’t any closer to coming to terms on an extension either for manager Dave Martinez or GM Mike Rizzo, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter links). Both are in the final year of their current deals. The Nationals have proven a fairly conservative organization and one that won’t budge due to public perception. For their parts, both Martinez and Rizzo appear to have great trust in the organization. Given that the Nats are coming off a World Series championship, it’s hard to imagine either man moving on. Rizzo is the longstanding architect of these Nats – one of the most sustainable contenders of the last decade – while Martinez is the culture of the club in its current iteration. He has both the respect and the admiration of his players, by all accounts. This is pure conjecture, but Nats ownership may be taking a principled stance by waiting on these extensions. They’ve routinely let star players play out the final seasons of their deals, and it shows some organizational continuity to do the same with Rizzo and Martinez.

No Contract Talks Between Nationals, Dave Martinez

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Nats skipper Dave Martinez spoke with reporters on a conference call this morning and, when asked whether there have been any talks regarding his contract status, replied with a simple, “Nothing” (Twitter link via Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington). The 2020 season is the final guaranteed year on Martinez’s contract, although the Nats do hold a club option on the 2021 season.

It’s not surprising to hear that there have been no talks during the pandemic shutdown, but it’s a bit curious that the two sides hadn’t spoken about a new deal earlier in the spring. The 55-year-old Martinez, after all, was at the helm for one of the most remarkable turnarounds any team has made in recent memory. In the absence of an extension, the Nats could’ve perhaps picked up Martinez’s 2021 option in advance; such measures are fairly common throughout the league (particularly for winning managers) in order to spare managers the dreaded “lame duck” status and the frequent questions and speculation that accompany such contractual uncertainty.

Then again, the Nationals aren’t anything close to a typical organization with regard to how they handle their managers. Martinez, for instance, became the sixth man to manage a Nationals game in an eight-year span (2011-18) when he was hired and took the field for the first time. No Nationals manager has ever lasted more than three seasons on the job, and in addition to generally having a short leash with managers, the Nats have a reputation for not compensating their skippers as well as other clubs throughout the league. (Recall that the team wanted to hire Bud Black to manage in the 2015-16 offseason but made him only a one-year, $1.6MM offer despite a nine-year run as a well-regarded manager in San Diego.)

If anyone were to buck those trends, it’s easy to imagine Martinez being the man to do so. His Nats famously surged back from a 19-31 start to the 2019 season to capture the franchise’s first World Series win and finished above .500 the season prior as well. Logically speaking, one would expect Martinez to stick around for at least the 2021 season, but the Nats’ track record in this arena illustrates that they’re difficult to predict. As the Washington Post’s Barry Svrluga highlighted in early March, general manager Mike Rizzo is in a similar spot (minus the club option), but ownership has seemingly yet to make any sort of final decision on its organization’s leaders.

Giving The Sixth Man Of The Year Award To Howie Kendrick

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For those in the Mid-Atlantic, the Nationals and Astros road warrior World Series is airing on MASN this week. For the rest of us, the 7-game battle has hardly disappeared from memory, as it remains the most recent non-exhibition game played in Major League Baseball. Still, when a player steps up his game on the biggest stage and raises his profile like Howie Kendrick did last fall, it’s hard not to look back early and often to re-live the heroics.

Strictly by definition, Kendrick wasn’t even an “everyday player” for the Nationals last season. Coming off an achilles injury and playing in his age-35 season, manager Dave Martinez was rigid about giving Kendrick enough rest to keep him fresh throughout the season. No matter the volume of clamor from Nationals fans, Martinez refused to deploy Kendrick indiscriminately, starting him in only 70 of the team’s 162 games (with liberal usage off the bench). Kendrick was the designated hitter of choice for Martinez in 7 of 10 interleague road games, and he also called upon Kendrick 41 times as a pinch-hitter.

While Kendrick found himself on the bench more often than not, he still added value as a versatile defender. Of the games he did start, 35 came at first base, 18 at second, and 10 at third. Unlike years past, Kendrick wasn’t utilized in the outfield, but it’s hard to know if that was a strategic decision made to shelter Kendrick. The Nats simply had no need to deploy him in the grass having gotten uncharacteristically stable play from their trio of outfielders. Juan Soto started 147 games in left, Victor Robles made 147 starts between center and right, and even the previously-fragile Adam Eaton made 143 outfield starts in 2019 (his most since 2016).

Whatever the reason, it’s hard to knock the Nationals’ prudent use of Kendrick. Not only did he stay healthy, but he came through time and time again, finishing with an otherworldly slash line of .344/.395/.572 across 370 plate appearances. If baseball had a sixth man award, it would be intended to spotlight a season exactly like Kendrick’s 2019. He was Lou Williams: high-energy, low-maintenance, instant offense off the bench.

And like Williams, Truck could close. Without a true sixth man award, Kendrick took the postseason as his opportunity to shine. It’s hard to imagine a player of Kendrick’s pedigree seizing quite so many opportunities for heroics in a single postseason (I see your hand, David Freese, but I’m not calling on you). As in his career on the whole, Kendrick wasn’t perfect. He made a couple of errors, looked foolish on the bases at times and finished the postseason with a slash line (.286/.328/.444) that one could easily overlook.

But in terms of peak value, Kendrick made his hits count. First, there was the series-winning, 10th-inning grand slam in the winner-take-all game five to vanquish the Dodgers. Considering this was just the Nationals second win in a winner-take-all-game in their history (coming a week after their first), Kendrick’s grand slam was, at the time, no doubt the biggest hit in Nationals’ team history. No longer could the Nats be shrugged aside as a franchise without a postseason series win (Mets fans on Twitter will have to find something new). With a history as long and storied as baseball’s, it’s rare these days to have the opportunity to watch in-real-time as moments exists in a self-actualized vacuum wherein each big hit instantly supplants its prior as the biggest in team history – but that was the case for the Nats this postseason, and Kendrick was the guy who kept outbidding himself with greater and greater moments.

Kendrick didn’t get that scene-stealing moment in the NLCS, but he did capture MVP honors by hitting .333/.412/.600 with four doubles. Kendrick was great against the Cardinals, but let’s be clear, he was not the most valuable piece of the Nats’ NLCS puzzle. That would be the starting pitchers, who didn’t allow an earned run until game four, yielding just 7 hits across those three games while striking out 28. When everyone is an ace, no one is an ace, so Kendrick took home the hardware for continuing to put together quality at-bats and driving home important runs.

But there’s no such thing as a transcendent playoff performance that doesn’t include the World Series. Pitching again took centerstage for the Nats, especially as the bats went ice-cold at home. The Nats scored just one run apiece in each of their home games, taking the L in all three. Kendrick went one-for-eight at home while only starting in games four and five. He had a good game two in Houston, but it was a relatively punchless series for Kendrick by the time he came to the dish in the top of the seventh inning of game 7, his club trailing by one. Kendrick’s biggest moment of the postseason – of his career – gave the Nats their fifth come-from-behind victory of the playoffs – the most ever – and it solidified his place in the baseball canon.

What made Kendrick’s postseason play so impressive, really, was how late it came it a good-but-not-great career. The bulk of Howie’s career took place on good-but-not-great Angels teams that, like Kendrick himself, were often quite good, but failed to make a lasting impact on the baseball landscape.

Kendrick himself went from productive regular to bench contributor for the Dodgers and Phillies before making his way to Washington. Now, you’ll be hard-pressed to find an announcer in the game who hasn’t referred to Kendrick as a “professional hitter.” To their collective credit, they’re not wrong. Kendrick is a career .294 batter who consistently puts the bat on the ball, never striking out in more than 20.4% of his plate appearances. Most seasons his strikeout rate hovers around 16-17%, though in 2019 he was even better, striking out a career-low 13.2% of the time.

Kendrick can hit, but that’s far and away his best skill. His 9.2% walk rate in 2016 with the Dodgers was easily a career-high. His career rate is 5.4%. He runs okay, but not great, notching double-digit stolen bases in 8 different seasons, but never more than 14, a high he reached four times. Generally speaking, he’s about a 14-stolen-bases level defender as well, sure-handed as a second baseman, but never threatening as a top shelf defender. Power-wise, his career .137 ISO leaves a lot to be desired, but he hit for just enough power to leverage the rest of his skillset. He was an All-Star once (2011) when he finished with 4.6 bWAR, and his “best season” earned him an 18-spot in MVP voting. That came in 2014, his last with the Angels, when he put up 6.1 bWAR/4.6 fWAR, which is impressive considering it was one of his worst power outputs, finishing .293/.347/.397 with just 7 home runs.

But in 2019 everything clicked for Kendrick. He managed 17 home runs while easily notching career highs in many rate metrics (ie, .228 ISO, 146 wRC+). Before last season, he’d never been more than 23% better than league average. But achilles surgery clearly agrees with Kendrick, because at age-35, not only was he 46% better than average, but he put a bow on his career year with the final game-winning hit of the season. More than any award, that’s the type of thing baseball remembers.

NL Notes: Wong, Nationals, Martinez, Howard

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Some notes from around the National League:

  • Kolten Wong would be open to discussing a long-term extension with the Cardinals, he told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch this week. The 29-year-old has settled in as a productive everyday second baseman in recent seasons. Since the start of 2017, Wong has compiled a productive .274/.357/.409 slash (105 wRC+). More importantly, he’s emerged as one of the game’s top defenders at the keystone. Wong will make $10.25MM in 2020, the final guaranteed year of the early-career extension he signed. St. Louis also holds a $12.5MM club option ($1MM) on his services that would easily be exercised if he continues to produce at his recent levels.
  • The Nationals’ World Series winning 2019 season started dreadfully, as they won just 19 of their first 50 games. Last fall, ownership said they never considered parting ways with manager Dave Martinez amidst the slow start. One more bad week last May, though, and the front office could have contemplated a change, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. One name discussed internally as a potential Martinez replacement: Buck Showalter, who, as Rosenthal notes, worked with Nats GM Mike Rizzo in Arizona from 1998-2000. Of course, that’s little more than an historical footnote now, as Martinez should be on solid footing after leading a remarkable turnaround. He and Rizzo are each entering the final guaranteed year of their contracts (although the Nationals have an option on Martinez for 2021). That said, neither Martinez nor Rizzo expressed worry about their situations as camp opens, and Rosenthal writes that “chances are” both will eventually work out extensions.
  • The Phillies plan to start top pitching prospect Spencer Howard slowly in 2020, the organization tells Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The hope is to conserve some innings in the early going so the organization needn’t worry about shutting Howard down if they find themselves in a playoff race. “Every pitch he throws in March is a pitch he’s not going to be able to throw in September,” GM Matt Klentak told Lauber. “It’s not because something is wrong, and it’s not because we don’t like him. It’s because we like him a lot, and we need to set him up for success to pitch deep into the season this year.” The 23-year-old, Baseball America’s #27 overall prospect, threw fewer than 100 minor-league innings in 2019, in part due to a midseason shutdown with shoulder soreness. Nevertheless, it seems he’s likely to make his MLB debut at some point in 2020 now that his arm is fully healthy.

NL Notes: Cubs, Morrow, Nationals, Turner, D’Backs, Hazen, Bryant

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Cubs reliever Brandon Morrow is healthy, which has rarely been the case throughout his Cubs tenure. Morrow should be on schedule for the spring, though the Cubs are keeping open the possibility of bringing him along more slowly than the other pitchers in camp. A different schedule would be purely precautionary, however, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). Morrow arrived in Chicago as the heir apparent to Wade Davis, who had been the heir apparent to Aroldis Chapman before him. When healthy, Morrow has been nothing short of elite, but after just 35 appearances in 2018 followed by an entire season in absentia, Morrow enters 2020 in no better position than the many other arms the Cubs have collected on minor league deals.

  • The Nationals are entering another year of uncertainty in their lineup. Manager Dave Martinez is weighing a move for powerful leadoff man Trea Turner into the middle of the order, tweets Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Turner certainly has enough oomph to man the middle of the order. A full season of the .298/.353/.497 line he put up last year would ably fill the 3-hole recently vacated by his bromance partner Anthony Rendon. Adam Eaton remains a viable top-of-the-order presence after putting up a .365 OBP mostly out of the 2-hole, who could presumably move up a slot into the leadoff vacancy. Putting Turner’s speed directly in front of the ever-patient and fear-inducing cleanup presence of Juan Soto might not be the most natural pairing, however. Martinez will have some big decisions to make, largely dependent upon who wins the third base job and what kind of jump Victor Robles can make at the plate.
  • In an interview with The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan, Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen says he doesn’t envision the team making a blockbuster deal like trading for Kris Bryant this far into the offseason. Major roster decisions have largely been made, and it’s more the time for fine-tuning. Hazen left open the possibility of adding a bullpen arm or another body for the bench, but a blockbuster is less likely. That said, the Diamondbacks never found the centerfielder they were seeking, which would push Ketel Marte back into the outfield and open starter’s minutes somewhere in the infield. The Diamondbacks have already taken more big swings this offseason than Hazen anticipated, so one more – even at this stage – can’t be entirely ruled out.
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