Latest On Ivan Nova, Pirates’ Offseason
The Pirates acquired Ivan Nova from the Yankees without much fanfare at the Aug. 1 trade deadline, but the right-hander has since turned into Pittsburgh’s latest successful reclamation project. Nova had a rough showing against the Reds on Sunday, but he entered the contest with a 2.41 ERA to pair with an even more impressive 0.52 BB/9 in 52 1/3 innings with the Pirates. As an impending free agent, Nova’s breakout might go down as a bittersweet development for the Bucs, who could lose him after the season.
“He has obviously changed the direction of his winter in the last six weeks,” manager Clint Hurdle admitted to Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Nova, 29, was back-of-the-rotation fodder in New York over the past couple seasons, but he’s likely to cash in soon as an appealing arm in a free agent market that will be largely devoid of them. It will also help Nova’s cause that the Pirates won’t be able to tender him a qualifying offer, which would force another team to give up a first-round pick to sign him. J.A. Happ, who was dominant with the Pirates after they acquired him from Seattle a year ago, also didn’t have a qualifying offer weighing him down when he hit free agency last winter. That, combined with his down-the-stretch performance in Pittsburgh, earned him a three-year, $36MM deal with the Blue Jays.
While many are quick to credit highly regarded pitching coach Ray Searage when an unheralded pickup fares well with the Pirates, Hurdle told Nesbitt that the team hasn’t had Nova make any significant changes since it landed him.
“There’s been no major overhaul,” Hurdle said. “For Nova, the downhill angle has been there, the strike-throwing efficiency has been there. It’s just been a couple things he has tightened up.”
In addition to Nova, the Pirates will have offseason decisions to make on other free agents, including reliever Neftali Feliz and a pair of position players – outfielder Matt Joyce and utilityman Sean Rodriguez – writes Nesbitt. All three signed inexpensive one-year deals with the Bucs last offseason, and Joyce and Rodriguez have been especially effective in 2016. As a result, they’re in line for raises. Joyce, who’s on a $1MM salary, has batted a stellar .248/.408/.481 with 12 home runs in 262 plate appearances. That’s a far cry from the .174/.272/.291 line and five homers he put up in 284 PAs with the Angels last year. Rodriguez, a $2.5MM player, has slashed a career-best .266/.349/.516 with 16 homers in 293 trips to the plate. Along the way, the 31-year-old has spent time at every position but pitcher and catcher.
Elsewhere on the roster, arbitration-eligible pitchers Juan Nicasio, Jared Hughes, Jeff Locke and Wade LeBlanc are potential non-tender candidates, per Nesbitt. Nicasio and Hughes have been superior to Locke and LeBlanc, both of whom seem likely to go. Locke will be due a raise over his $3.025MM salary despite having posted ugly numbers (5.49 ERA, 1.64 K/BB ratio) in 126 1/3 innings this year. LeBlanc, meanwhile, joined the Pirates on Tuesday after they picked him up in a trade with Seattle. The Mariners previously designated him for assignment in late August.
Latest On The Pirates’ Rotation
Multiple reports last week indicated that the Pirates are shopping left-hander Jon Niese, and and today Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review adds that the Bucs are trying to move Niese and/or fellow lefty Jeff Locke (Twitter link). Trading either struggling southpaw would create a permanent spot in the Pittsburgh rotation for Tyler Glasnow, whose name, as noted by Biertempfel, is not listed among the upcoming probable starters for Pittsburgh’s Triple-A affiliate in Indianapolis.
That the Bucs would look to move Locke isn’t exactly a stunner, as the 28-year-old has been on the fringes of the rotation anyhow in recent seasons. Locke found himself in a competition with Vance Worley for a rotation spot in 2015, and, dating back to Opening Day of last season, has pitched to a combined 4.78 ERA in 269 1/3 innings (including a 5.26 mark this season). The 28-year-old is averaging career-lows in K/9 (4.7) and ground-ball rate this season (46.6 percent) and has yielded a troublesome .287/.351/.498 batting line to opposing right-handed hitters this season.
Locke isn’t teeming with upside, but a club that has been beset by injuries in the rotation could certainly do worse than him when filling out the back of the rotation. Locke did, after all, manage a 3.98 ERA in 81 starts from 2013-15, and he’s earning a reasonable $3.025MM salary in 2016. He’s controllable for another pair of seasons beyond the current campaign and doesn’t figure to be in line for a significant bump in salary due to his aforementioned 2016 struggles.
While it’s rare to see a contending club move one or even two arms from its big league rotation — especially when its ace (i.e. Gerrit Cole) is on the disabled list — Pittsburgh has a number of young, MLB-ready arms that could step into the rotation down the stretch. In addition to Glasnow, we’ve seen Jameson Taillon, Steven Brault and Chad Kuhl each make his Major League debut this season. Taillon, of course, is presently on the big league disabled list with some fatigue in his right shoulder and will eventually need to have his innings capped after not pitching in 2014-15 due to injury. However, he could return later this month, and the Bucs are also hoping to get Cole back following the All-Star break as well (he’s already begun a Triple-A rehab assignment). Vogelsong, too, could be back in late July. As such, even without Locke and Niese, Pittsburgh could conceivably have a combination of Cole, Francisco Liriano, Vogelsong, Glasnow, Kuhl, Taillon and Brault make the bulk of their starts in the final two and a half of months of the season.
NL Central Links: Pirates, Locke, Cozart, Zobrist
Some items from around the division…
- The Pirates have said they intend to use Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow and Chad Kuhl as starters when the three young arms are promoted to the majors, though Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review notes that if all three are called up this season, the Bucs may not have enough rotation space. The Pirates have one starter likely to be shifted out (Juan Nicasio) and Sawchik figures Jon Niese‘s recent good form has solidified his starting spot.
- This could leave Jeff Locke fighting for his job, though Sawchik hears from scouts that Locke has some trade value if the Pirates wanted to address their rotation surplus by making a deal. The six-year veteran has been a decent back-of-the-rotation arm for the Bucs over the last three seasons, capable of eating innings (a career-high 168 1/3 frames in 2015) and keeping the ball in the park (a career 50.7% grounder rate) while not recording many strikeouts. This season, however, Locke has not pitched very well, posting a 5.08 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and an even 50.0% grounder rate over 51 1/3 innings.
- Also from Sawchik’s piece, he opines that Rich Hill would make sense as a trade deadline target for the Pirates. Of course, given Hill’s strong performance and low cost (roughly $4MM still owed this season), the A’s lefty could be one of the deadline’s most sought-after trade chips. In Pittsburgh’s case, acquiring Hill could allow them to keep Glasnow or Kuhl in the minors until next season.
- If the Reds intend to trade Zack Cozart, Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer suggests that the club should move the shortstop before the deadline rather than wait until the offseason. Anything can happen to lower a player’s value if you wait too long to make a trade, Buchanan argues, as the Reds discovered with Aroldis Chapman last year. Cozart’s value may be at an all-time high since, in addition to his usual excellent defense, he’s been an above-average (104 wRC+) shortstop bat for the last two seasons.
- At age 35, Ben Zobrist is on pace for the best season of his 11-year career and he has been one of the major reasons for the Cubs‘ league-best record, Toni Ginnetti of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. While it’s only two months into Zobrist’s four-year/$56MM contract, the big investment in a mid-30’s player has thus far worked out spectacularly well for the Cubs. Zobrist enters today’s play hitting .351/.451/.542 with seven homers and 36 runs scored; his OBP leads all qualified Major League hitters.
- In NL Central news from earlier today, the Cardinals‘ punishment for the Astros computer breach scandal isn’t likely to be issued before June’s amateur draft.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Thursday
Here are the day’s lower-value arbitration deals, with all projections coming via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:
- The Padres and southpaw Drew Pomeranz have avoided arb by agreeing to a one-year, $1.35MM deal, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. That’s a near-match with Swartz’s projection of $1.3MM. Acquired in an offseason trade with the A’s, Pomeranz will slot into the San Diego ‘pen this season and look to build on last season’s 86 innings of 3.66 ERA, during which he averaged 8.6 K.9 and 3.2 BB/9 to complement a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate.
- Fernando Salas and the Angels are in agreement on a one-year, $2.4MM deal, thereby avoiding a hearing, per Rosenthal. The 30-year-old Salas, who will be a free agent next winter, posted a 4.24 ERA in 63 2/3 innings this past season but had more encouraging peripherals; Salas averaged 10.5 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9 with a 35.1 percent ground-ball rate, prompting FIP (3.15) xFIP (3.23) and SIERA (2.65) to forecast markedly better results.
- Right-hander Jeanmar Gomez and the Phillies have avoided arb with a one-year, $1.4MM agreement, Rosenthal tweets. The soon-to-be 28-year-old posted a strong 3.01 ERA with 6.0 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 and also recorded a sound 48.8 percent ground-ball rate in 74 1/3 innings of relief across 65 appearances. He’ll again provide some valuable innings for the rebuilding Phillies.
Pirates Notes: Morton, Pitching, Melancon, Niese, Nicasio, Kang
The Pirates are one of several teams holding a FanFest today. Reporters, including MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth, were on hand for the Q&A with GM Neal Huntington. The Pirates’ GM admitted that today’s Morton swap was mostly about payroll relief, although the club does like David Whitehead.
Here’s more Pirates notes:
- Today’s trade of Charlie Morton will likely instigate “multiple moves,” tweets Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. After the move, the Pirates payroll is around $88MM with a target of about $105MM per Biertempfel (tweet). Huntington told reporters including MLB.com’s Adam Berry (tweet), “A big part of the motivation was to free some dollars to allow us to deepen the club, to reestablish some depth.“
- Industry sources implied to Biertempfel (tweet) that pitchers like Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake, or others over $10MM per season are not on the Pirates radar. However, there is no doubt that at least one starting pitcher is on the agenda. The rotation presently consists of Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, Jon Niese, and Jeff Locke. Presumably, the club prefers for Locke or Niese to fill a long relief role with Allen Webster serving as minor league depth. Top prospect Tyler Glasnow is not expected to reach the majors early in the season.
- Closer Mark Melancon is expected to earn $10MM in arbitration per MLBTR estimates, but the club is under no pressure to trade him, tweets Biertempfel. The team could potentially get by in the late innings with Tony Watson, Arquimedes Caminero, and new acquisition Juan Nicasio. However, a bullpen with Melancon is certainly more robust. With the market for quality closers at a premium, Pittsburgh would find it difficult to replace Melancon. Per Huntington, “if somebody steps up and gives us a return that’s significant enough to motivate us to get a little bit uncomfortable, then we get a little bit uncomfortable.” (h/t to Wilmoth for the quote).
- In commenting on Nicasio, Huntinton told Wilmoth, “We do think there are some things we can help him with. Now, is it going to be enough to make him a good starter? Time will tell. Is it going to be enough to make him a really good reliever? Time will tell.” The Pirates have developed a reputation as a haven for reclamation projects which could make Nicasio an interesting player to watch.
- Comparing recent acquisition Jon Niese to the market, Huntington said “he’ll continue to put up numbers similar to guys who are getting sixty, seventy, eighty, ninety million dollars in free agency — we have three, essentially, one-year contracts with Jon Niese.” While Niese comes with less cachet than somebody like Mike Leake, it’s true that they project to perform similarly. As such, Huntington may very well beat the market with this swap.
- Huntington says Jung-ho Kang is more likely to return in April than May, per Berry (tweet). If true, this is a lucky break for the club. They currently have some combination of Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, Alen Hanson, and Pedro Florimon penciled in for second base, shortstop, and third base. An injury or poor performance from Hanson could leave the club scrambling for reinforcements.
- The Pirates will retrench in 2016 with an aim to contend again in 2017, writes John Perotto of the Beaver County Times. While the club will still pursue a postseason berth next year, they’ll have their eyes on developing top prospects like Josh Bell, Glasnow, and Jameson Taillon.
NL Central Notes: Cards, Locke, Lucroy, Reds
Cardinals rookie scouting director Chris Correa has impressed in his first six months on the job, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch writes. His biggest early test, of course, will come in a week with the amateur draft, the first one he’ll run. Correa came to the game with a background in statistics, but acquired significant scouting knowledge after joining the St. Louis organization. “I think had he not done that, he might not have been the right person for this job,” said GM John Mozeliak. “Obviously, scouting is part art, part science, and to some level, he understood the analytical side of it. But he was also someone who was willing to ask about and try to learn the scouting side. For someone to embrace both, that makes an impression.”
- The Pirates have decided to keep lefty Jeff Locke in the rotation, per skipper Clint Hurdle, as Tom Singer of MLB.com tweets. “He still has a big upside,” explained Hurdle. After another rough outing, ballooning his ERA to 5.34, it seemed that Locke might lose his place, as MLB.com’s Barry Bloom wrote, but Pittsburgh will stick with him at least a while longer. Of course, the club can continue to handcuff him to Vance Worley, who not only serves as a long-man in the event that Locke is run early but also would remain lined up to take over. As Hurdle noted, the club has plenty of depth options, but it no doubt would prefer to see Locke turn things around to keep things that way. From his own perspective, this is an important season for Locke, as he’s set to be arbitration-eligible for the first time.
- In spite of a managerial change, the Brewers continue to lose ground and appear to be among the game’s most obvious summer sellers. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports looks at the team’s stock of talent, suggesting that it would make sense for the club to deal away catcher Jonathan Lucroy if it chooses to move star center fielder Carlos Gomez. But Passan notes that there are not many contending teams in dire need of a backstop, which could limit his market — in spite of his incredibly cheap contract. I’d suggest that Lucroy’s limited action and lack of production in the early going is an even greater barrier to a summer deal. As for his prospective market, the Tigers and Angels look like teams that could reap huge benefits from a real upgrade behind the dish, while plenty of other clubs would be involved given Lucroy’s extended, cheap control.
- The Reds are fresh off a sweep of the Nationals, but GM Walt Jocketty says that nothing has changed regarding the team’s planning process, as John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. “Our plan is to be competitive as we can for as long as we can,” said Jocketty. “But we’re still looking at all the different alternatives. Our scouts are out looking at the other clubs. We’re looking for players who might help us as well as prospects.” The veteran executive noted that the team has a lot of games against division opponents and at home in advance of the trade deadline, which will presumably give the team at least a fighting chance of getting into the mix. Cinci will need to put together quite a run to make buying an advisable route, of course, particularly given that it plays in a division currently led by the team with the best record in baseball and two other strong contenders.
Trade Notes: Red Sox, Hamels, Gee, Mets, Pirates
Joel Sherman of the New York Post runs down a list of the teams with obvious trade candidates this spring and notes that executives to whom he spoke most often mentioned the Red Sox as a team to watch. Sherman examines speculative landing spots for Allen Craig, Shane Victorino and Jackie Bradley. He feels that a healthy Victorino would be an idea fit in Seattle in front of Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano (though I don’t imagine Seattle having interest given their platoon acquisition of Seth Smith and Justin Ruggiano). For Craig, he theorizes that the Angels make some sense, should Josh Hamilton face a lengthy suspension. And the Braves have long fancied Bradley, even before Melvin Upton went down with a foot injury, Sherman adds. Sherman also runs down situations in Los Angeles, San Diego, Toronto, Chicago and Philadelphia.
A bit more from his piece and a few other trade-related notes from around the league…
- As Sherman notes, many out-of-options players will become trade candidates at the end of Spring Training, and he feels that some such candidates could be outfielder David Lough, infielder Eduardo Nunez, lefties Felix Doubront and Brad Hand, and right-handers Jacob Turner, Randall Delgado, Stolmy Pimentel and Jesse Chavez. I’d be a bit surprised to see Chavez moved coming off such a strong season, though it’s certainly possible. Lough, in particular, strikes me as someone who could interest clubs, given his elite defense and his strong numbers against right-handed pitching.
- While each side will privately acknowledge that they’ve been in contact with the other, talks between the Red Sox and Phillies regarding Cole Hamels have been dormant for weeks, writes Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Nightengale spoke to Boston GM Ben Cherington and Red Sox pitchers Rick Porcello and Wade Miley about the confidence each has in their current staff.
- Mets GM Sandy Alderson tells MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo that it’s “fair to say” there’s been little to no recent trade talk regarding right-hander Dillon Gee and any of the Mets’ other starting pitching options (Twitter link). Gee seems destined to open the season in the bullpen, barring an injury or a spring injury to a rotation member.
- Travis Sawchick of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review takes a look at the spring battle between Vance Worley and Jeff Locke for the Pirates‘ fifth spot in the rotation, noting that neither is a candidate for a bullpen spot, so the loser of the battle could ultimately end up as a trade candidate. Sawchik notes that it’s possible that both could end up breaking camp with the team, should Charlie Morton open the season on the DL (or should the Bucs incur another spring injury), but he predicts that Worley will win the rotation spot if everyone else is healthy.