Joey Votto

Reds first baseman Joey Votto won the National League MVP award today, according to the BBWAA.  Albert Pujols, Carlos Gonzalez, Adrian Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, Roy Halladay, Aubrey Huff, Jayson Werth, Martin Prado, and Ryan Howard round out the top ten.

Over the past few seasons, Joey Votto has built up a reputation as one of the National League's best hitters. This season, he's exploded for a .323/.423/.598 slash line with 37 home runs, carrying the Reds to the postseason for the first time in 15 years. He's a frontrunner for the NL MVP award, but according the Cincinnati Enquirer's John Fay, the Reds' superstar "doesn't know" if he's interested in signing a long-term deal.

The club has yet to approach Votto about an extension. And, while Votto may be uncertain for the time being about the prospect of a long-term deal, let's look at his situation a little more in-depth.

Votto will be arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason, and as Fay points out, an MVP trophy (or even a runner-up finish) certainly looks nice in arbitration hearings. Ryan Howard won his case and was awarded a $10MM salary following his MVP season, though he had a Rookie of the Year trophy to his name (Votto finished second in 2008) and gaudier HR and RBI totals. Fellow Canadian and 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau had more similar numbers in his MVP season and signed for $4.5MM in his first year of arbitration, following that MVP effort.

The second time around, Howard inked a three-year deal worth $54MM rather than going through arbitration again. Morneau, who had a down year in 2007, avoided arbitration and signed for $7.4MM in his second year before erasing that deal and agreeing to a six-year, $80MM contract prior to the 2008 season. Votto could fit somewhere between the two MVP first basemen in terms of both years and dollars. As MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith pointed out in examining Votto's extension candidacy in late August, the next three years could cost the Reds in the neighborhood of $30MM one way or another.

Votto's tear has continued since then, however, and in his article, Fay suggests Votto will submit a $10MM figure in arbitration this offseason. If that ends up being the case, Votto's arbitration years could cost in the neighborhood of $35MM or more.

There's no way to accurately predict the value of a contract for Votto, but contracts of some of his peers suggest that signing for five years at $15MM-$16MM per season might be fair for both sides. That would all depend though, on Votto's decision between signing or going year-to-year and hitting free agency at age 30. If that's the route he chooses, he could be in line for a mammoth Mark Teixeira-type contract on the open market.

Walt Jocketty knows a thing or two about extending young, MVP-caliber first basemen. The Reds GM signed Albert Pujols to his current seven-year $100MM deal in 2004, back when he was running the Cardinals. This winter, Jocketty will have to consider offering an extension to another productive young first baseman, one who has led the Reds to the top of the NL Central standings.

Joey Votto would be leading the NL in every triple crown category if it weren't for Pujols. The Reds first baseman, who homered twice and singled in the go-ahead run in yesterday's marathon win, is having himself an MVP-caliber season. Not only does he lead the league in batting average, he has higher on base and slugging percentages that any other NL player.

Votto had put together two-plus productive major league seasons heading into 2010 and he's now about to go to arbitration for the first time. I suggested Monday that Votto could reasonably ask for $7MM through arbitration next year, but what if the Reds decide to offer him an extension? How much would they have to offer the soon-to-be-27-year-old to keep him around long-term?

It depends, of course, on certain variables. The Reds could attempt to buy out any number of free agent years, may want to add an option year or two and could even include incentives or bonuses. It would be foolish to try to predict the details of a possible extension, but we can safely attempt to determine how much Votto can expect to earn for his three seasons of arbitration eligibility.

As this chart shows, Votto has produced like Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Morneau, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Mark Teixeira had at the same points in their respective careers. Those first basemen each made between $4.5-10MM for their first arbitration season and between $7.4-15MM for their second arbitration season. The comparisons are imperfect, but they gives us a sense of the kind of money Votto can make. 

Fielder and Teixeira made $15-20MM for their first two seasons of arbitration, so if the Reds valued Votto's first two arbitration seasons similarly and offered a proportionate raise for 2013, they'd be looking at a $30MM price tag for their first baseman's next three seasons. It wouldn't make sense for the Reds to offer an extension unless they thought they were getting a fair deal, so they may not make a proposal at all. But whether they extend Votto or not, his next three seasons could cost them about $30MM.

The Reds may or may not offer Joey Votto an extension this winter, but he's setting himself up for a massive raise, even if Cincinnati doesn't offer a long-term deal. Votto leads the National League in batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage and is second in RBI and third in home runs. He's just three homers and three RBI away from leading the league in every triple crown category and has a 1.023 OPS since the All-Star break, so he's showing no signs of slowing down.

The Reds have enjoyed three-plus seasons of dirt-cheap production from their first baseman, but that's about to change. Votto goes to arbitration for the first time this winter and he's comparable to a group of first basemen that earned significant raises in their first seasons of arbitration.

To determine how much Votto can expect to earn in 2011, let's compare his numbers to the ones some current first basemen had entering their first seasons of arbitration. Here are the stats Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Morneau, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Mark Teixeira had leading up to their first arbitration seasons, plus the salaries they ultimately agreed to. 

 
 

Please note that Fielder, Teixeira, and Pujols signed multi-year deals that included their first seasons of arbitration. 'Age' shows the player's age at the time of the signing, not his current age.

Votto’s rate stats are comparable to Cabrera’s, but Votto has played significantly fewer games than Cabrera had. Fellow-Canadian Justin Morneau had similar homer and RBI totals to the ones Votto has now, but worse rate stats.

Howard and Morneau, both super twos, parlayed MVP seasons into substantial raises, but Morneau settled for a modest $4.5MM salary, whereas Howard signed for a record-setting $10MM. Votto, an MVP candidate this season, could ask for something in between. It would not be unreasonable for him to seek a $7MM salary through arbitration this offseason if he keeps hitting like this.