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Jonathan Papelbon

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jonathan Papelbon

By Dan Mennella | August 11, 2011 at 10:08pm CDT

In an upcoming class of free agents flush with solid closers, Red Sox stopper Jonathan Papelbon will arguably be the grand prize. Papelbon, 31 in November, is still in his prime and on track for his sixth consecutive campaign of at least 35 saves in as many seasons as Boston's closer. He didn't merely compile those saves by virtue of simply holding the job; the 2.33 career ERA and 2.68 FIP are befitting a stud closer.

This season, in particular, has been an important one for Papelbon on the heels of a tumultuous 2010. He's posted a 3.14 ERA and 26 saves to date, but if you dig deeper, the advanced estimators like him more than that, enough for a 2.37 xFIP and 1.62 SIERA. If the end-of-season numbers are closer to those figures, Paps will hit the open market on quite the high note.

Papelbon avoided arbitration last offseason for a $12MM salary in 2011, and I'd guess he won't want to take a cut in annual salary (I know, going out on a limb there). And considering three-year deals were handed out like so many Jolly Ranchers to setup men such as Joaquin Benoit and Scott Downs last winter, he'd be silly not to seek a pact of at least that length.

The tricky part is that his most obvious suitor, or perhaps the one that seems the likeliest, is his current team, the Red Sox, and they have plenty of bargaining leverage. Setup man Daniel Bard has emerged as one of the game's elite relievers the past couple years, and Ryan Madson, Heath Bell and Francisco Rodriguez threaten to dent the market for Papelbon, as do older guys like Francisco Cordero, Joe Nathan, Brad Lidge and Jose Valverde, whose respective teams hold club options for 2012.

Bargaining is a ways off yet, but a couple of experts have shared interesting and differing takes recently. One NL GM told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he wouldn't break up the formidable late-innings duo of Bard and Papelbon, and that he thinks Boston will buck up when it comes down to it. Meanwhile, Peter Gammons said last month that if Papelbon is seeking something like three years and $36MM, the Sox will likely allow him to walk.

I think the terms mentioned by Gammons are probably the magic numbers for Papelbon. Consider, for example, that Mariano Rivera will have earned $15MM for five consecutive years from 2008-12 (on three- and two-year contracts), and $36MM for three doesn't seem so unreasonable. Of course, that's a dicey comparison because of Mo's greatness, his inextricable ties to the Yankees organization and so on. But there are parallels. Is Paps the Red Sox's Rivera? More pointedly, will the sides proceed in contract dealings the way the Yanks and Rivera have — knowing that they need each other? My bet is, "yes."

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Boston Red Sox Free Agent Stock Watch Jonathan Papelbon

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Red Sox Notes: Papelbon, Harden, Ellsbury

By Luke Adams 2 | August 7, 2011 at 10:22am CDT

Heading into 2011, with Jonathan Papelbon coming off his worst season and in a contract year, it seemed to be just a matter of time until Daniel Bard took over as the Red Sox closer. As the offseason approaches though, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that it will be very difficult for the Sox to lose Papelbon. While they could replace him with Bard, they'd then have to find a reliever capable of filling Bard's eighth inning role. One National League executive said he thinks the Sox should bring Papelbon back: "If the resources were there to have both of those guys at the end of the game, and I believe they are, then there’s no way you break that up." Here are the rest of today's Red Sox updates:

  • Within Cafardo's piece, an NL GM wondered what sort of deal Papelbon could land on the open market this winter: "Is the market that teams are willing to spend on a closer more in the $8MM to $10MM range now? It depends, I guess, on how desperate you are. It takes one team."
  • Cafardo says the Red Sox could still consider Rich Harden as an August trade target, if he makes it to them on waivers. Boston nearly worked out a trade for the right-hander in July, but it fell through due to medical concerns. It's worth remembering, however, that the Sox didn't nix the deal entirely – they still tried to acquire Harden at a reduced cost.
  • Boston put "just about everyone" through waivers this week, according to Cafardo.
  • David Ortiz told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that the Red Sox should make it a priority to lock up Jacoby Ellsbury to a long-term deal. Rosenthal rightly pointed out that Ellsbury's agent, Scott Boras, typically likes to see his clients hit free agency, making an extension less likely.
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Boston Red Sox Oakland Athletics Jacoby Ellsbury Jonathan Papelbon Rich Harden

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AL East Notes: Bundy, Carmona, Papelbon

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | August 5, 2011 at 4:34pm CDT

The AL East won't be short on storylines tonight, when the Red Sox host the Yankees in Boston and Blue Jays prospect Brett Lawrie makes his MLB debut against the Orioles in Baltimore. Here's the latest from the division…

  • Top Orioles draft pick Dylan Bundy is in Baltimore for a physical and he told Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun that he hasn't yet started negotiations with the team (Twitter links).
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Red Sox made a late push for Fausto Carmona before the trade deadline.
  • Jonathan Papelbon told Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that he is not going to set up for anyone. Papelbon, who hits free agency after the season, then reinforced his point by speaking about himself in the third person. "Cinco don't set-up," he said. "Never."
  • Justin Duchscherer had successful hip surgery today, according to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun (on Twitter). The right-hander hopes to pitch in 2012, but it won't be with the Orioles, who released him earlier in the week.
  • As Zrebiec explains, the regression of the Orioles' top young arms is the biggest reason that it's hard to see the club threatening for a playoff spot in the near future.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Cleveland Guardians Dylan Bundy Fausto Carmona Jonathan Papelbon Justin Duchscherer

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AL East Notes: Papelbon, Kuroda, Blue Jays, Rays

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | July 18, 2011 at 7:54pm CDT

The latest from the AL East as the Orioles host the Red Sox and the Rays host the Yankees… 

  • Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon, who will hit free agency after the season, tells Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that he's excited about the opportunity to prove himself in the second half of the season, but only focusing on what he can control.
  • The Yankees called Hiroki Kuroda's agent to gather information and heard that the starter doesn't want to leave Los Angeles for the East Coast, according to Peter Gammons of MLB Network (on Twitter).
  • Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos told Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com that he isn't close to making any moves, though that could change quickly, since dialogue between GMs is picking up.
  • Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports discusses teams on the fringes of contention and provides recommendations for their deadline strategy. Among Morosi's more surprising advice: the Rays should sell.
  • For the latest on the Orioles, check out Mike Axisa's post from earlier this evening.
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Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Dodgers New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays Hiroki Kuroda Jonathan Papelbon

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Red Sox Notes: Beltran, Ortiz, Papelbon, Garza

By Mark Polishuk | July 14, 2011 at 9:51pm CDT

The Red Sox kick off the second half on Friday with a big series at Tropicana Field against the Rays.  Here are some notes about the club with the AL's best record…

  • The Red Sox have contacted the Mets about Carlos Beltran, a Boston team official tells Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston  (Twitter link).  According to the official, however, the Sox were "just doing [their] due diligence."
  • Beltran would certainly fill Boston's hole in right field, an area that GM Theo Epstein admitted is an area of concern, reports MLB.com's Ian Browne.  Epstein said he would make a move if necessary, but the GM also noted that the Sox could improve at the position from within, either with Josh Reddick playing more or J.D. Drew breaking out of his season-long slump.
  • WEEI.com's Ryan Hannable has a partial transcript of Peter Gammons' appearance on the Mut & Merloni radio show today.  Gammons said Boston faces "difficult decisions" on pending free agents David Ortiz and Jonathan Papelbon, particularly Papelbon since Daniel Bard is waiting in the wings as the club's next closer.  Gammons believes if Papelbon wants a three-year deal worth $36MM or more, the Sox will let him go.
  • Also from Gammons, he doesn't think Boston will trade a number of prospects for a starter like Matt Garza in order to solve its lack of rotation depth.
  • The Red Sox face a 40-man roster crunch this winter, reports Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal.  "For that reason, the Red Sox can afford — and, indeed, might be wise — to trade three or four high-level prospects for an impact player," MacPherson writes.  "Not only could that impact player help them win the World Series, but the trade could clear the 40-man-roster logjam and allow the Red Sox to retain some of the other prospects they've devoted so many resources to developing." 
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Boston Red Sox New York Mets Carlos Beltran David Ortiz Jonathan Papelbon Matt Garza

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Red Sox Notes: Papelbon, Ellsbury, Beltran, Ortiz

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | July 11, 2011 at 7:07pm CDT

No American League team has more wins than the Red Sox, who boast a 55-35 record at the All-Star break despite a surprisingly slow start. Here's the latest on the Red Sox…

  • The Red Sox haven't engaged Jonathan Papelbon in extension talks this season, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Papelbon hits free agency after the season and it's a situation that fellow free agent closer Heath Bell will be monitoring in case a job opens up at the back of Boston's bullpen.
  • Scott Boras pointed out that Jacoby Ellsbury's combination of power, speed and defense is hard to find. “Your skill set to play centerfield and steal bases obviously generates itself around speed," the agent told Alex Speier of WEEI.com. "So, to go beyond and add an offensive power to that is hard to do. It’s a rare skill set.”
  • Carlos Beltran told Speier that he would accept the trade to Boston if the Mets decide to move him. “They’re in first place,” Beltran said. “That’s a no-brainer.” Beltran is an unlikely target for the Red Sox, who don't have much money available and would prefer to find an internal solution, according to Speier. Beltran earns $18.5MM this year and has said that he would waive his no-trade clause under the right circumstances.
  • David Ortiz, who will hit free agency after the season, told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he hasn't heard anything about his future and isn't worried about it. Ortiz says he hopes to play for more than one season after 2011.
  • Andre Ethier told Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe that he likes the idea of playing for the Diamondbacks with Dustin Pedroia late in their respective careers (Twitter link).
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Arizona Diamondbacks Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Dodgers New York Mets Andre Ethier Carlos Beltran David Ortiz Jacoby Ellsbury Jonathan Papelbon

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AL East Notes: Papelbon, Bautista, Lawrie, Fox

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | May 31, 2011 at 4:54pm CDT

It's early, but baseball's toughest division doesn't appear to be getting any easier. The Red Sox, Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays are all within two games of the AL East lead. Here are the latest links from the division…

  • Jonathan Papelbon told Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that he’d like to stay in Boston after the season and break records and win championships with the Red Sox. The prospective free agent says he’ll do what’s best for his family, though there’s more to that than the bottom line. "It's not about the money, it's about going somewhere day in and day out and wanting to be there."
  • Jose Bautista reflects on his ascension from hard-throwing college closer to utility player to MLB home run king with MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince. 
  • Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos told Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca that top prospect Brett Lawrie has made the adjustments the Jays asked him to make and is close to Major League-ready (Twitter link). Earlier today, ESPN.com’s Keith Law ranked Lawrie 11th among MLB prospects.
  • Orioles utility player Jake Fox told Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com that his role is unclear and that he has had trouble timing and recognizing pitches without regular at bats. 
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays Brett Lawrie Jake Fox Jonathan Papelbon Jose Bautista

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Stark On Marquis, Papelbon, Lowe, Phillies

By Mark Polishuk | May 21, 2011 at 5:40pm CDT

ESPN's Jayson Stark recently chatted with fans about several topics, including these hot stove-related items…

  • Stark predicts there won't be "a lot of difference-making starters" available at the trade deadline this summer, so a lower-tier arm like Jason Marquis could garner some interest if Washington makes him available. 
  • It has been widely assumed that this is Jonathan Papelbon's last year in Boston, but Stark isn't so sure the stopper will find a better deal elsewhere.  "He'll test the market," Stark writes, "but you'll have a ton of closers out there this winter. [Papelbon] might not get what he thinks he'll get."
  • Stark hears from teams who have "kicked the tires" about acquiring Derek Lowe that the Braves want to keep the veteran right-hander.  (Stark's ESPN colleague Buster Olney reported the same earlier this week.)  Atlanta values its starting pitching depth, which has already been tested this season with Brandon Beachy's current DL stint.
  • The Phillies "can't add anybody who makes even modest money unless ownership signs off on it," which could leave them unable to make a major acquisition at the trade deadline.
  • Stark has heard from some general managers that "eventually, there will be a push to get rid of the DH" to get both leagues playing under the same set of rules.  Such a rule change would be years away from being implemented, however, since teams have spent a lot on players who they intended to use as designated hitters now or in the future.
  • The Orioles don't seem like they'd be willing to trade Jeremy Guthrie, and Luke Scott "isn't an easy guy to deal" given his controversial political views.
  • Jesus Montero "isn't ready" for the majors yet, according to some International League scouts.
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Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Philadelphia Phillies Derek Lowe Jason Marquis Jeremy Guthrie Jesus Montero Jonathan Papelbon Luke Scott

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Stark On Rangers, DeRosa, Phillies, Papelbon

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | April 29, 2011 at 3:20pm CDT

Joey Votto is the player of the month for ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark, who hears from a scout that the Reds’ first baseman is more feared than anybody in the National League, including Albert Pujols. Here are the rest of Stark’s rumors:

  • One NL executive thinks the Mariners are so far from winning that they should be listening to offers for Felix Hernandez, who is under team control through 2014. Yesterday, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports heard from a number of executives who expect King Felix to stay put for now.
  • An AL official says the Rangers are the most likely candidate to trade for a high-profile reliever this summer. Their bullpen has taken a number of hits, with Neftali Feliz and Darren O’Day on the DL and Alexi Ogando moving to the rotation.
  • Stark hears that the only players available now are those with “awful contracts.”
  • Despite the buzz about Mark DeRosa and the Marlins, Stark hears that the Giants and Marlins have not had serious discussions about the currently-injured utility player.
  • The Phillies will find it hard to add payroll this summer, but they’re eyeing potentially available bats.
  • Though Jonathan Papelbon will likely test the free agent market after the season, Stark gets the impression that the reliever could re-sign in Boston after all.
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Boston Red Sox Miami Marlins Philadelphia Phillies San Francisco Giants Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers Felix Hernandez Jonathan Papelbon Mark DeRosa

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Free Agent Stock Watch: April 2011 Edition

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | April 29, 2011 at 9:30am CDT

We're just four weeks into the season, so prospective free agents still have lots of time to establish their value before hitting the open market. Cliff Lee, who went on to become last offseason's most highly coveted free agent, had made just one start at this point last year. Adrian Beltre also started slowly; he was homerless with a .772 OPS last April before heating up and re-establishing his free agent value.

Other free agents used April as a springboard for standout walk years. Carl Crawford (.941 OPS, 7 steals) and Jayson Werth (.987 OPS) used the first month of the season to establish themselves as top free agents in 2010. With that in mind, here's a look at what ten members of this year's free agent class have done over the course of the first four weeks of the season:

  • Albert Pujols - It took him a few games to heat up, but Pujols has 7 homers, 18 RBI and a .258/.321/.485 line. It's nothing special, but he has been unlucky on balls in play and has hit like his usual self since the middle of the month.
  • C.C. Sabathia - Sabathia can opt out of the four years and $92MM remaining on his contract after the season and the way he's pitching, he may be able to obtain more guaranteed money that way. Sabathia is putting together another phenomenal season, with a 2.25 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9.
  • Prince Fielder - Fielder leads the NL with 23 RBI and has a .326/.415/.565 line. Agent Scott Boras figures to be asking for Mark Teixeira money ($180MM) and then some this offseason.
  • Jose Reyes  - Reyes has a robust .321/.359/.459 line with 8 stolen bases and 11 extra base hits. If he keeps this up, could ask for $100MM-plus this winter.
  • Jimmy Rollins - Rollins, 32, has a .271/.346/.354 line so far this season. He's getting on base at a respectable clip, but he has never had a season with a slugging percentage this low. It seems unlikely that Rollins will have another 30 homer season, as his slugging percentage and isolated power have been in decline since 2007.
  • C.J. Wilson - Wilson's 3-0 record and 3.51 ERA look good and he's striking our nearly a batter per inning (8.4 K/9). He has a career-best walk rate so far (2.4 BB/9) after struggling with walks for years.
  • Carlos Beltran - With 3 homers and a .280/.359/.488 line, the 34-year-old Beltran is off to a strong start. Seemingly healthy after two injury-plagued seasons, he is now playing right field (though agent Scott Boras insists he can still handle center).
  • Mark Buehrle - Buehrle, 32, has a 5.12 ERA, but his peripheral stats suggest that his ERA should fall closer to his 3.87 career mark. Buehrle, who averaged 33 starts per year over the course of the last decade, leads the league with six starts in 2011.
  • Jonathan Papelbon - Elite relief pitching is arguably the biggest strength of the upcoming free agent class, so it remains to be seen whether Papelbon will have much leverage this winter. He's off to an excellent start, with 5 saves, a 1.93 ERA, 11.6 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9.
  • Heath Bell - Bell would like to stay in San Diego, but the Padres may not be able to afford him. If he keeps pitching like this – 0.90 ERA, 5 saves, 6.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 – someone else will be happy to pay for his services. His strikeout rate has dipped, but it's early.

Note that I haven't included Robinson Cano, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and others whose teams could exercise options for 2012.

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Uncategorized Albert Pujols C.C. Sabathia C.J. Wilson Carlos Beltran Heath Bell Jimmy Rollins Jonathan Papelbon Jose Reyes Mark Buehrle Prince Fielder

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