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Jonathan Papelbon

Phillies Making Strong Push For Ryan Madson

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9:26pm: The Phillies have also had talks with Jonathan Papelbon and seem determined to sign him or Madson, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter).

8:18pm: Talks are "advancing, but not complete," a source told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links). Agent Scott Boras told Crasnick that the sides are still exchanging proposals.

7:23pm: The Phillies are making a "strong push" to re-sign Ryan Madson, according to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark (on Twitter). Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports also hears that the Phillies are working hard to complete a deal for Madson. However, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. hasn't ruled other free agents out.

"It's no secret I need a closer," Amaro told Rosenthal. "I am talking to everyone."

Madson, 31, became Philadelphia's full-time closer in 2011, converting 32 saves. He posted a 2.37 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 48.8% ground ball rate in 60 2/3 innings of relief. He's a Type A free agent, but the Phillies won't have to surrender a draft pick to sign their own player. However, they would obtain two picks if the right-hander signs elsewhere after turning down arbitration from Philadelphia.

ESPN.com's Buster Olney reported earlier today that the Blue Jays are taking a "very aggressive" approach in their search for a closer (Twitter link). Though it's not clear if they're targeting Madson, Olney won't be surprised if Toronto ends up with one of the top free agent relievers.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Oswalt, Sabathia

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Red Sox GM Ben Cherington confirmed to reporters that the Red Sox and Cubs have obtained a one-week extension to work out compensation for former Boston GM Theo Epstein. Here are some more notes from the division, starting with the Red Sox…

Red Sox Notes: Manager, Ortiz, Papelbon

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The Red Sox declined their club options on relievers Dan Wheeler and Scott Atchison today. Here are more details on the Red Sox, who have formally begun their managerial search…

  • Phillies bench coach Pete Mackanin interviewed for Boston's managerial opening today and told reporters, including Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald, that he's hoping for the job. "The way I look at it is, who wouldn’t want to manage the Boston Red Sox?”
  • Brewers hitting coach Dale Sveum will interview for Boston's managerial opening Wednesday, according to Lauber (on Twitter). Boston hasn't yet asked for permission to interview others.
  • Red Sox GM Ben Cherington hopes to name a manager by Thanksgiving, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com (on Twitter).
  • Cherington doesn't expect to reach a deal with David Ortiz or Jonathan Papelbon before the players hit free agency on Thursday, according to Lauber (on Twitter).

Red Sox Haven’t Made Offer To Papelbon

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As of today, players with expired contracts are eligible to file for free agency, but teams still have until Thursday at 12:01am ET to exclusively negotiate with their free agents. So far though, the Red Sox have yet to make a contract offer to closer Jonathan Papelbon, according to WEEI's Rob Bradford.

During his introductory press conference this week, Ben Cherington indicated there had been some dialogue with Papelbon and that he expects the two sides to continue to talk. However, the new Red Sox GM tells Bradford that he doesn't expect a contract to be signed before Thursday: "My impression is that Pap will probably get into free agency. I'm not ruling anything out, but that's my impression."

The Red Sox figure to offer Papelbon arbitration in November, so if the Type-A free agent does sign with another club, the Sox would snag two draft picks out of the deal. For a more in-depth look at Papelbon's free agent stock, check out MLBTR's Dan Mennella's piece from back in August.

Ben Cherington Press Conference Quotes

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The Red Sox introduced Ben Cherington as their executive VP and general manager this afternoon. Cherington says the Red Sox will have a very good team in 2012 and discussed Boston's managerial search and other offseason plans. He also announced that John Lackey will undergo Tommy John surgery. Here are the details:

  • Cherington wants a new manager with a strong voice who cares about players and can collaborate with the front office. He says the team will start interviewing candidates soon. The Red Sox have several candidates in mind for first round interviews, but they haven't asked permission to interview any of them yet. Previous managerial experience would be a plus, but it's not necessary.
  • Boston's success in terms of free agent signings has "not [been] good enough," according to Cherington.
  • Despite Boston's disappointing 2011 season, Cherington says the Red Sox have enough on and off of the field to succeed. "What I'm left with is a conviction that the Red Sox will be the best organization in baseball going forward," he said. 
  • The Red Sox would like to have David Ortiz and Jonathan Papelbon back, according to Cherington. They have had some initial dialogue with each player and they expect to continue discussions.
  • The Red Sox will look to build pitching depth and could go for buy-low acquisitions.
  • Cherington believes Marco Scutaro would be "very coveted" this offseason if he got onto the market. The Red Sox have a $6MM option for Scutaro that they'll likely pick up this offseason ($3MM player option, $1.5MM buyout).
  • Cherington says he pushed hard to sign Carl Crawford and believes in him.
  • The new GM discussed the importance of having top talent evaluators and vowed that the Red Sox will employ some of the top scouts in the game.
  • Boston's farm system is "stronger and deeper than ever" at Double-A and below, Cherington said.
  • Red Sox president and CEO Larry Lucchino says the Red Sox hired a team player who is hungry for more success. "There is no one more prepared to take on the role of General Manager of the Red Sox than Ben,” he said.  “He will hit the ground running, in full stride, and no one will outwork him.”
  • "I've always believed in hybrid baseball executives and Ben is a hybrid baseball executive," Lucchino said.
  • The Red Sox will soon announce promotions within their front office. Epstein has not asked Cherington about taking front office members with him to Chicago.
  • Cherington is the first person from our list of GM Candidates to land a GM job. Here's my piece on Cherington from August 2011.
  • Former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein discussed the Cubs and Red Sox at his introductory press conference in Chicago earlier today.

Free Agent Closers’ Usage

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The upcoming class of free agents figures to present an interesting study in the way teams are evaluating relievers these days. After Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, many of the most recognizable names are closers or relievers who have previously closed.

Modern analysis suggests it's foolish to invest heavily in relief pitchers due to their limited contributions and volatility in year-to-year production. But someone has to get those crucial late-inning outs, and the temptation for a team that thinks it's a contender to throw a lot of money at a guy who's coming off a year in which he posted a minuscule ERA or eye-popping strikeout rate is often too great.

Undoubtedly, suitors will use a variety of criteria to evaluate free-agent closers, one of which will be usage. Because usage can encompass so many things — innings, appearances, pitches, "high-stress" pitches, and so on — it's tough to say which is the most accurate reflection of a pitcher's workload; of course, this debate continues on for starters, too.

During the season, with the launch of CloserNews.com, we began keeping an eye on relievers who had pitched on three (and four) consecutive days, as that seems to be the breaking point for when most relievers must be rested. We've tallied that up here in a spreadsheet, along with a few other measures (standard and otherwise) of reliever usage, for the upcoming class of free-agent closers.

The objective here isn't to make any bold proclamations based on who threw the most innings; I may as well pen the inevitable mea culpa right now if it were. Rather, there are some interesting tidbits of note here, a few things to file away as these relievers ready themselves for free agency and teams prepare to bid.

  • Heath Bell and Francisco Cordero were the only two of this group to pitch on four consecutive days in 2011. Bell is the only one to do it twice.
  • Bell's abundance of pitches certainly seems to correspond with his dip in strikeout rate (7.32 K/9 in 2011 vs. 9.22 for career). Looks like he was having trouble putting away hitters, at least relative to his past performances.
  • Francisco Rodriguez paced the group by pitching on three consecutive days six times. 
  • Heavy usage is not unusual for K-Rod, though. He's pitched fewer than 65 innings only once in his nine full big league seasons, the red herring due to an off-field incident in 2010.
  • Info was culled from Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference.

Papelbon Discusses Free Agency

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"It really truly isn't all about the money," closer Jonathan Papelbon told WEEI's Rob Bradford.  In that case, he would have remained a starter.  Instead, the impending free agent says, "I'm going to a place where I know I'm going to succeed. I'm going to a place where I know I have a chance to win a championship. I'm going to a place where I know that my family is going to be safe, my family is going to like the environment, and everything else that goes along with off-field stuff."

The door is still open for Papelbon to return to the Red Sox, though no talks have occurred yet.  Papelbon told Bradford that he told Sox GM Theo Epstein, "Listen man, if you ever need anything, I'm here for you whether I'm going to be back here or whether I'm not going to be back here."  Papelbon has set arbitration records for closers the past three years, but says contract talks were "extremely easy for both sides."

The next step may be the Red Sox offering arbitration to the 30-year-old stopper, who qualifies as a Type A free agent.  Last year November 23rd was the deadline to offer arbitration to free agents, but it appears the deadline might be November 30th this year.

Top closers Papelbon and Ryan Madson will likely be vying to become the first free agent relievers to sign four-year deals since Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink four years ago.

Red Sox Notes: Francona, Epstein, Ortiz, Papelbon

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On September 3, the Red Sox had a 99.6% chance of making the postseason, according to statistican Nate Silver.  The next day, Silver notes that Bill Buckner played himself on an episode of Curb Your Enthusiasm that spoofed Buckner's legendary World Series error.  The Sox went 6-18 after Buckner's cameo.  As Larry David himself would say, that is a prett-ay, prett-ay, prett-ay big coincidence.

Some notes from Boston as the fallout continues from the Red Sox' legendary collapse….

  • Theo Epstein and Terry Francona met with the media today, and Alex Speier from WEEI had the details.  Epstein said that the team had just finished an initial review of its baseball personnel and wouldn't make any decisions for a few days yet. 
  • Epstein said that Francona wasn't being singled out as the cause for Boston's collapse.  "That would be totally irresponsible and totally short-sighted and wouldn’t recognize everything he means to the organization and to all our successes, including, at times, in 2011,” Epstein said.  “So we take full responsibility for what happened, all of us. Collectively it was a failure….I’m the general manager so I take more responsibility than anybody. I don’t think we believe in – I know we don’t believe in scapegoats. In particular, no one blames Tito for what happened in September. Look, we all failed collectively."
  • Epstein dismissed rumors about his connection to the Cubs' general manager's job as "just speculation."
  • Francona said he wasn't yet prepared to discuss his future with the Sox, saying last night's devastating result was "still pretty fresh and pretty raw."  The manager said he and Epstein would sit down within the next few days.
  • Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated hears from several "baseball people" that Francona and the Sox could mutually decide to part ways.  If Francona does leave, it probably won't be to the White Sox, as Heyman hears Chicago "may go younger" (both Twitter links).
  • Epstein said the club would examine its process for evaluating free agents, given the failures of John Lackey, Carl Crawford and past free agents like Matt Clement and Julio Lugo.  Though Lackey and Crawford struggled this season, Epstein said the team will do everything possible to get both players back up to par for 2012.
  • Epstein praised the performances of David Ortiz and Jonathan Papelbon, saying he hopes the Sox can figure out a way to bring both pending free agents back to Boston this winter.
  • Peter Gammons thinks Lackey may have to be traded for another bad contract like Barry Zito or Carlos Zambrano, reports WEEI.com's Paul Flannery.  "I'm not sure John is ever going to fit in Boston again. I understand how upset he is but I think it's going to be hard for fans to warm up to him again," Gammons said.  Gammons notes that other teams who suffered late-season breakdowns underwent major organizational changes, though he thinks Francona will return as manager.
  • ESPN's Buster Olney looks at some key figures on the Red Sox and Braves whose status is in question in the wake of both teams' terrible Septembers.  Olney thinks Lackey has to be moved, predicts changes to Boston's coaching staff and hears it's "highly unlikely" Epstein leaves, though friends of the GM say he would embrace the challenge of running the Cubs.
  • Jim Donaldson of the Providence Journal thinks Epstein should take the fall for building a roster with too many holes.

Epstein On Papelbon, Ortiz, Millwood

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The Red Sox have dropped five in a row, and GM Theo Epstein joined WEEI's Dennis & Callahan show today to offer his take.  A few highlights:

  • Epstein hasn't ruled out outside acquisitions, but internal solutions are much preferred.
  • "There's never been a lack of interest" in keeping closer Jonathan Papelbon in Boston.  Added Epstein, "I have to think there’s a lot of mutual interest in continuing the relationship."  Papelbon is eligible for free agency after the season, having earned $27.6MM over his three arbitration years.
  • The Red Sox are "obviously" interested in having designated hitter David Ortiz back, but Epstein says now is not the time to talk about that stuff.
  • The GM's thoughts on having Kevin Millwood in the organization: "At the time, we had guys ahead of him. His stuff, in our judgment and the judgment of our Triple-A staff, it wasn’t going to play at the major league level here for the Red Sox above the other options that we had."  The 36-year-old veteran has since posted a 3.79 ERA in six starts for the Rockies.

 

Rosenthal On Papelbon, Yankees, Fielder, Pujols

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A Marlins shakeup is looming and the focus is on the team's minor league system, says Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports in this week's edition of Full Count.  Jim Fleming, the vice president of player development and scouting, has informed his staff that he will be reassigned.  The club's revenues will grow once they move into their new stadium but they still need to do a better job of producing homegrown talent.  Let's take a look at some more highlights from Full Count..

  • The Red Sox are reluctant to give lucrative long-term contracts to closers, but with Jonathan Papelbon they might not be able to resist.  Papelbon will want an increase from his $12MM salary, perhaps something closer to Mariano Rivera's $15MM average yearly pay.  It's possible that no team will want to go there but Rivera has just one year left on his deal and Rafael Soriano hardly looks like the heir to Mo's throne.  Rosenthal wonders aloud if the Yankees would jump in and offer Papelbon a backloaded deal to take over as closer.
  • The Rangers would seem to be an obvious suitor for Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols, especially in light of Mitch Moreland's recent struggles.  Texas will have to spend on pitching if they lose C.J. Wilson in free agency and they might prefer to keep both their payroll and roster flexible.  Josh Hamilton is only one year away from free agency and Ian Kinsler is only two years away. 
  • The sale of the Astros to Jim Crane is not yet official and some in baseball believe that he will not be approved as owner.  Others, however, view a deal as inevitable.  Current owner Drayton McLane wants out and Crane is offering a fair price for the club.  Perhaps most importantly, there does not appear to be any other bidders.  McLane has been loyal to the commissioner's office and he will want to see that loyalty reciprocated.
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