Reds Likely To Trade From Bullpen Depth
The Reds are telling teams they plan to trade from their bullpen, report C. Trent Rosecrans and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. That is not yet a signal about their deadline direction, though. According to the report, Cincinnati anticipates having a bullpen surplus as they expect Emilio Pagán and Ian Gibaut to return from the injured list next month.
Cincinnati has somewhat quietly had one of the better bullpens in the league. Reds relievers rank seventh with a 3.52 earned run average and are eighth with a 24.5% strikeout rate. The relief group had been a recurring problem before turning into one of the team’s strengths this year. Swingman Nick Martinez has thrived when working from the ‘pen. Fernando Cruz has developed into one of the league’s better strikeout arms, while underrated lefty Sam Moll has continued to excel after coming over from the A’s at last year’s deadline.
The Reds don’t have a ton of maneuverability with their relief group. Cruz and Moll have locked down two spots with their performance. Closer Alexis Díaz has been inconsistent, but Cincinnati isn’t going to send him down. Justin Wilson, Buck Farmer and Lucas Sims all have the requisite service time to decline a minor league assignment. Cincinnati can’t option Tony Santillan back to the minors after selecting his contract two weeks ago.
That leaves one bullpen spot with a five-man rotation. Martinez is currently working from the starting five but could slide back to the ‘pen once Carson Spiers returns from the injured list. That’d essentially complete the bullpen without having any obvious candidates to bounce between Great American Ball Park and Triple-A Louisville.
If they needed a fresh arm at that point, the Reds could designate someone for assignment. While Farmer has a 2.80 ERA over 45 innings, his strikeout and walk profile is pedestrian. Santillan had spent virtually the entire season in Triple-A, but The Athletic writes that the Reds view him as a key piece and would not want to put him back on waivers. Cincinnati could get Gibaut, Pagán and lefty Brent Suter back from injury later in the season.
While they’ll likely deal with other injuries along the way, the Reds obviously won’t be able to make any trades after next Tuesday. It seems they’re preemptively trying to get something in return for at least one or two of their relievers rather than lose players via waivers in August. The most obvious candidates for such a move are their impending free agents: Sims, Farmer and Wilson.
None of that trio would bring back a significant return. Sims, who is playing on a $2.85MM arbitration salary, has the highest ceiling of that group. He misses bats and has worked in a high-leverage capacity for the last few seasons, but he issues too many walks to be an in-demand trade chip. Sims is handing out free passes at a 13% clip over 33 frames this year after walking more than 15% of batters faced last season.
Wilson missed virtually all of 2022-23 because of Tommy John surgery and a lat injury. He returned this year with his typical velocity and has fanned more than a quarter of opponents with a 5.2% walk rate. A .365 average on balls in play has led to an unimpressive 4.85 ERA, but the 36-year-old is a fine option for teams seeking another left-hander in middle relief. Wilson is making a $1.5MM base salary.
Martinez is making $14MM this year and has a $12MM player option for next season. He’s pitching well, turning in a 3.88 ERA with excellent control over 72 frames. The fairly lofty salary and ’25 player option could lead teams to look elsewhere, though. It’s also not clear if the Reds want to deal Martinez, whose versatility they could value if they still anticipate making a playoff push.
General manager Nick Krall told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer yesterday that the front office had not decided on their overall deadline outlook. They’re five games under .500 and in last place in the NL Central, yet they’re within 4.5 games of a Wild Card spot in a wide open National League. Cincinnati’s game against the Braves tonight was rained out. They’ll make it up with a doubleheader on Wednesday. They play a weekend set in Tampa Bay and one game against the Cubs before the deadline.
Reds Promote Levi Stoudt
April 19: The Reds announced this morning that Stoudt has been activated from the taxi squad and is now on the active Major League roster to start today’s game. Righty Casey Legumina was optioned to Triple-A Louisville to clear a spot on the 26-man roster.
April 18, 2:10pm: Manager David Bell tells reporters, including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer, that it will just be a spot start for Stoudt. He’ll push the rotation back a day to give Greene an extra day of rest after getting hit on the shin by a comebacker in his most recent start.
1:55pm: The Reds announced that pitching prospect Levi Stoudt has been added to their taxi squad and is scheduled to start tomorrow’s game, which will be his major league debut. Additionally, the club reinstated right-hander Lucas Sims from the injured list and optioned fellow righty Kevin Herget to Triple-A. Stoudt already has a 40-man roster spot but a corresponding move will be required to get him on the active roster.
Stoudt, 25, came over to the Reds in the trade that sent Luis Castillo to the Mariners. He was selected by the latter club in the third round of the 2019 draft, then had Tommy John surgery shortly after, with his rehab coinciding with the minor leagues being canceled by the pandemic in 2020. Despite not yet making his professional debut, Baseball America considered him to be Seattle’s #12 prospect going into 2021. He was able to return to the mound that year, making 15 starts between High-A and Double-A, posting a 3.31 ERA in that time along with a 25.5% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate.
He was bumped up to the #8 spot on BA’s ranking of Mariner prospects for 2022, but that would end up being a tumultuous season for him. He had a 5.28 ERA through 18 Double-A starts. He dropped his walk rate to 5.9% but he also allowed 13 home runs in 87 innings. Nonetheless, the Reds still liked him enough to make him one of the four prospects they acquired in the Castillo deal. He finished strong after the trade, tossing five scoreless innings in a Double-A start before getting bumped to Triple-A for his final six starts, registering a 3.32 ERA in that time. BA ranked him #16 in the Reds’ system coming into 2023.
Stoudt would have been Rule 5 eligible this past December but the Reds added him to their roster to prevent him from being selected. He’s made three more Triple-A starts in the early going here with a 4.09 ERA, though an 18% walk rate, .185 batting average on balls in play and 94.2% strand rate suggest he probably deserved worse. Regardless, it’s a small sample and the club has decided he’s ready to try the big leagues.
It seems like Stoudt will be the replacement for Connor Overton, who was placed on the injured list over the weekend. Stoudt will slot into the club’s rotation alongside Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft and Luis Cessa for now. Luke Weaver has been on a rehab assignment after starting the season on the injured list and seemed in line to jump to the big leagues this week, though it’s unclear why Stoudt is now taking the spot instead.
Reds Notes: Santillan, Votto, Sims
The Reds have halted the rehab of right-hander Tony Santillan, as noted by The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosencrans. Santillan was limited to just 19 2/3 innings of work in 2022 due to low back pain, and was diagnosed with a Pars stress fracture in his low back this spring that has kept him out of action ever since. He appeared to be on the verge of returning to big league action, as he had begun a rehab assignment in Triple-A recently, but Santillan is now dealing with discomfort in his right knee that will keep him out of action for longer, according to Rosencrans.
Santillan struggled to a 5.49 ERA during his injury-plagued 2022 season, but impressed in his 2021 rookie season with a 2.91 ERA (162 ERA+) in 43 1/3 innings, though it came with a concerning 4.62 FIP thanks to Santillan stranding an unsustainable 90% of baserunners, though he did post an impressive 29.5% strikeout rate that season. When healthy, Santillan could join the likes of Alex Diaz and Fernando Cruz in covering late-inning duties for the Reds.
First baseman Joey Votto is also halting his rehab process, per a club announcement. Votto returned to Cincinnati and spoke with reporters today, with Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer noting that Votto has not suffered any setbacks and MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon relaying that the first baseman remains optimistic about returning to big league action in the near future, though he isn’t ready to do so yet. As Nightengale notes, Votto could begin another rehab assignment in five days if he’s ready to do so.
Votto underwent surgery on his rotator cuff and bicep last season after struggling to a slash line of just .205/.319/.370 in 91 games last year, the worst performance of his future Hall of Fame career. Following his surgery, Votto took things slowly this spring, and has continued to work his way back at a careful pace as he has repeatedly expressed a desire to not return to the club until he’s fully healthy and ready to return. The Reds have given their veteran slugger the latitude to guide his own rehab process, including leaving the decision about whether he would start the season on the Opening Day roster up to him.
In more positive injury news, reliever Lucas Sims is scheduled to pitch for a second day in a row at Triple-A today, according to Nightengale, with a return to the big leagues later this week a possibility if all goes well. A first round pick by the Braves in the 2012 draft, Sims was part of the return for the trade that sent Adam Duvall from Cincinnati to Atlanta at the 2018 trade deadline. Since then, Sims has been a bullpen regular for the Reds, posting a 4.44 ERA (107 ERA+) and 3.87 FIP in 127 2/3 innings of work with the club. Sims pitched just 6 2/3 innings last year before being placed on the IL with lower back spasms last May, an issue he’s dealt with ever since. Fortunately, it appears Sims is primed to return to big league action and join a bullpen that currently features the likes of Derek Law and Buck Farmer covering the middle innings.
NL Central Notes: Wainwright, Reds, Cubs
Cardinals manager Oli Marmol provided on update on veteran right-hander Adam Wainwright to reporters (including MLB.com’s John Denton) today. The 41-year old Wainwright opened the season on the injured list after suffering a groin injury during Team USA’s run to the World Baseball Classic finals, but threw a 33-pitch bullpen session on Saturday with another planned for Tuesday. Should that go well, the plan is for Wainwright to advance to either a simulated game or a rehab start in the minors.
That’s good news for the Cardinals, who have struggled in the early going this season thanks in part to the rotation posting a combined 5.93 ERA in 41 innings across the season’s first eight games. Wainwright’s career 3.38 ERA would surely be a breath of fresh air for St. Louis’s beleaguered rotation, and even a repeat of his roughly league average 2022 season would make Wainwright a reliable starter in a rotation with plenty of question marks. Wainwright’s rotation spot is currently occupied by Jake Woodford, who allowed six earned runs on seven hits (three homers) and three walks in four 1/3 innings in his first start of the season.
More injury updates from around the NL Central…
- The Reds sent right-handers Luke Weaver and Lucas Sims to Triple-A Louisville for a rehab assignment today. Weaver was set to begin the year in the Cincinnati rotation before being sidelined with a strained right flexor tendon, while Sims figured to being one of the top options in the Reds’ bullpen before being sidelined with back spasms. The rehab assignment indicates that both could impact the big league club soon. Weaver’s return would likely push right-hander Luis Cessa from the rotation into the bullpen. Cessa still figures to take at least one more turn through the rotation, however, as he projects to start again on Tuesday against the Braves. Sims has posted a 4.20 ERA (3.37 FIP) in 79 1/3 innings since moving to the bullpen full-time for the 2020 season, while Weaver signed a one-year deal with the club this offseason following a brutal 2022 season where he posted a 6.56 ERA in 35 2/3 innings of work.
- The Cubs provided a handful of injury updates of their own, as Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic notes. Right fielder Seiya Suzuki and left-hander Brandon Hughes are continuing to progress well in their rehab process in Triple-A, with Suzuki in the lineup at DH for Iowa today while Hughes threw an inning yesterday. Sharma also relayed an update on starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks, who has been out since the middle of last season with a capsular tear in his right shoulder. Hendricks is scheduled to throw a bullpen tomorrow as the Cubs have opted to take his recovery process slowly thanks to the number of depth options they have for the rotation. Adrian Sampson and Javier Assad are among the top depth options behind the current starting five of Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele, Drew Smyly, and Hayden Wesneski.
Reds Designate Nick Solak For Assignment
The Reds announced a series of roster moves prior to today’s season opener. They have selected the contracts of right-hander Derek Law, left-hander Alex Young and infielder Jason Vosler. To open places on the 40-man roster, right-handers Tejay Antone and Justin Dunn were placed on the 60-day injured list, while infielder/outfielder Nick Solak was designated for assignment. Additionally, infielder/outfielder Nick Senzel and first baseman Joey Votto were placed on the 10-day injured list while right-handers Tony Santillan, Lucas Sims and Luke Weaver were placed on the 15-day injured list.
Solak, 28, was once a highly-touted prospect who had a strong debut with the Rangers in 2019. He hit .293/.393/.491 that year in 33 games but has struggled since and now carries a career batting line of .252/.327/.372. That amounts to a wRC+ of 93, indicating he’s been about 7% below league average. Concerns about his second base defense also pushed him into the outfield corners, putting more pressure on his bat to provide value. He was traded to the Reds in November but had a rough spring, getting just two hits in 24 plate appearances. Despite his rough showing of late, he might get a shot elsewhere based on his prospect pedigree. He also still has an option remaining and can be stashed in the minors by any team willing to give him a 40-man roster spot.
Young, 29, spent most of last year with the Giants, posting a 2.36 ERA over 25 appearances with an 18.1% strikeout rate, 9.5% walk rate and 54.2% ground ball rate. Despite that solid campaign, he was non-tendered at season’s end and landed a minor league deal with the Reds. He’ll give the club a second lefty in the bullpen alongside Reiver Sanmartin. The right-handed Law will also join that bullpen, which was reported earlier this week.
Vosler, 29, got into 77 games with the Giants over the past two seasons, hitting .228/.306/.421 for a wRC+ of 100. Like Young, he was also non-tendered by the Giants and got a minor league deal from the Reds. He’s played all four infield positions in his career, as well as the outfield corners, giving Cincinnati a versatile player to plug in around their younger players as needed.
Turning to the IL placements, none of them are particularly surprising. Dunn has a shoulder injury that will keep him out of action for a couple of months. Antone has a flexor strain in his forearm that may keep him out until the All-Star break. Votto is still recovering from last year’s shoulder surgery, Weaver is battling forearm discomfort, while Santillan and Sims are dealing with lingering back issues.
Reds’ Luke Weaver, Lucas Sims Expected To Open Season On Injured List
The Reds are likely to be without two important pitchers early in the season. Manager David Bell informed the media yesterday that fourth starter Luke Weaver and presumptive high-leverage reliever Lucas Sims are each likely to open the year on the 15-day injured list (via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com).
Weaver experienced some forearm discomfort last week. The Reds don’t seem overly concerned — he’s already progressed to throwing a bullpen session after a brief rest period — but the issue has thrown his Spring Training off enough he’ll require some time during the season to build up. Weaver has pitched three times this spring but only made it through 5 2/3 combined innings.
Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal this offseason after being non-tendered by the Mariners, Weaver entered camp as the #4 rotation option behind Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. The righty worked almost exclusively out of relief last season, tossing 35 1/3 frames in 26 appearances. He’d been a starter throughout his career until then. The Reds will give him a chance in his initial role after his season-opening IL stay. Considering he hasn’t topped 100 innings in a year since 2018, the injury could naturally manage workload concerns that might’ve arisen later in the season anyhow.
In the short term, it’ll vacate a second rotation spot for a handful of pitchers still battling for MLB jobs. The final two spots figure to go to some combination of Luis Cessa, Connor Overton, prospect Brandon Williamson, or a non-roster veteran like Chase Anderson. Overton and Williamson have gotten hit hard in Spring Training, while Cessa and Anderson haven’t logged many innings in camp. Anderson initially began in minor league camp and was only added to the MLB side a couple weeks ago. Cessa left the club for a few weeks to represent Mexico in the World Baseball Classic. The Reds could have to make the decision on Anderson’s role in the next 48 hours; he’s one of a handful of veterans who has an automatic opt-out chance this Saturday if he’s not added to the big league roster.
Sims, meanwhile, is dealing with back spasms that necessitated a temporary shutdown. He’s also back throwing again. The right-hander has had a tough Spring Training, surrendering ten runs in five innings. That’s on the heels of a 2022 campaign almost completely lost to a disc herniation in his back that required surgery. Between his on-field rust and the injury history, there’s obvious reason for the Reds to be cautious.
Two seasons ago, Sims emerged as a high-leverage reliever with a massive 39% strikeout rate over 47 innings. He’s among the higher-upside options in a thin bullpen if he can get healthy. Sims has two remaining seasons of arbitration control and could be one of the Reds’ more interesting deadline trade candidates should he find his pre-surgery form.
Reds Notes: Antone, Santillan, Senzel
Reds reliever Tejay Antone announced last week he’d miss the start of the season after receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection to address a flexor strain in his forearm. He didn’t provide many more specifics but implied he could be sidelined by the All-Star Break. While that’s potentially still on the table, manager David Bell only indicated today that Antone would be out at least through the end of April (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer).
Antone’s coming off a lost 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery towards the tail end of the ’21 campaign. That was the second such procedure of his career, with injuries conspiring to rob the Reds of arguably their best reliever. Before his surgery, the former fifth-round draftee had pitched 33 2/3 innings of 2.14 ERA ball with a 32.8% strikeout rate.
Getting him back as quickly as possible will be crucial for a Cincinnati club that didn’t make any MLB additions to its bullpen this offseason. The Reds’ relief corps was a bottom ten unit by both ERA and strikeout/walk rate differential last season. The expected returns of Antone and Lucas Sims from surgery rehabs would’ve reinstalled a pair of high-leverage options. Sims is on track for full spring participation, Bell informed reporters today, but Antone’s loss subtracts one of the highest-upside hurlers from the mix.
Cincinnati might also be without Tony Santillan to start the season, Bell indicated. The 6’3″ righty didn’t pitch in last year’s second half on account of a lower back injury. That apparently carried into his offseason, and Santillan is behind schedule in his throwing program. A former second-round pick and once one of the more intriguing pitching prospects in the Reds’ system, he’s settled in as a reliever at the MLB level. Santillan came out of the bullpen 21 times last year, allowing 14 runs in 19 2/3 innings.
In more fortunate health news, center fielder Nick Senzel appears to be mostly ready to go for camp. The 27-year-old told C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic he feels good and has recovered from offseason toe surgery (Twitter link). While he indicated he might be built up a little more slowly than most players, it seems he’s on track for Opening Day. Senzel still looks the favorite for regular center field reps, though the Reds added a potential alternative with the acquisition of Will Benson from the Guardians last week. A former second overall pick, Senzel will be looking for a breakout year after hitting .240/.303/.360 through his first 273 MLB games.
Lucas Sims To Undergo Season-Ending Back Surgery
Reds reliever Lucas Sims will undergo surgery next week to repair a herniated disc in his back, he tells Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He’ll miss the rest of the 2022 season. The 28-year-old expressed confidence he’ll have a relatively normal offseason and be ready for Spring Training next year.
Sims has been dogged by back issues virtually all year. He opened the season on the injured list and missed the first two weeks. The right-hander was reinstated in late April and made six appearances, but he was tagged for seven runs in 6 2/3 innings. Cincinnati placed Sims on the IL again in mid-May, and he was transferred to the 60-day version last month. He’ll remain on the IL all year but will have to be reinstated to the 40-man roster at the start of the offseason.
It’s a virtually lost season for Sims, who’d shown flashes of emerging as a high-leverage arm in the preceding two years. A former first-round pick of the Braves, he struggled to throw strikes as a starter but looked to have a found a home in the bullpen by 2020. During the abbreviated season, Sims posted a 2.45 ERA across 25 2/3 innings. He punched out a third of batters faced, and manager David Bell increasingly used him in key situations the following year.
Sims even spent some time as the Cincinnati closer in 2021, collecting seven saves. He watched his ERA spike to 4.40 through 47 innings, but that belied excellent secondary numbers. Sims was one of the game’s top strikeout arms, fanning nearly 40% of opponents while generating swinging strikes on almost 15% of his offerings.
The Reds and Sims failed to come to an agreement on an arbitration salary over the winter, and the sides went to an in-season hearing. The team emerged victorious, with the arbitrator setting Sims’ salary at the club’s proposed $1.2MM mark. (Sims’ camp had been seeking $1.6MM). With virtually nothing to show in terms of 2022 performance, he’d command an identical or marginally higher salary if tendered a contract for 2023. Sims will collect his salary and a full year of MLB service while rehabbing, pushing him past the four-year service threshold. He’s controllable through 2024.
Lucas Sims Loses Arbitration Case
The Reds beat reliever Lucas Sims in arbitration, reports Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). Sims will be paid at the team’s filing rate of $1.2MM this season; he’d been seeking a $1.6MM salary.
A former first-round pick of the Braves, Sims struggled as a starting pitcher during his rookie season in 2017. Atlanta dealt him to Cincinnati at the 2018 deadline, and he’s since worked primarily out of the bullpen. He was bounced on and off the big league roster through 2019 but emerged as a high-leverage option during the shortened 2020 season. Sims posted a 2.45 ERA while striking out a third of opponents through 25 2/3 innings that year.
The right-hander struck out an even more impressive 39% of batters faced last season. He also collected the first seven saves of his career and held nine leads, but 37% of the baserunners he allowed came around to score and he served up 4.40 earned runs per nine innings.
This year’s arbitration process is anomalous because of the lockout, which froze offseason business for more than three months. The delay forced unsettled arb cases to be resolved in-season, as logistical hurdles prevented them from being handled during the customary February and March time period. Nevertheless, the hearings are to be decided based on players’ pre-2022 bodies of work, so Sims’ performance this year should not have been a factor in the result.
There would not have been much to go on in Sims’ case anyhow, as he’s been limited to six appearances by injury. Back spasms have hampered him for a few months, and he’s spent the past four weeks on the 15-day IL. He struggled during his limited look on the active roster, seemingly impacted by the back issue.
This was Sims’ first season of arbitration-eligibility. He’ll be eligible twice more before first qualifying for free agency after the 2024 season, assuming the team continues to tender him contracts.
Reds Place Lucas Sims On Injured List, Select Robert Dugger
The Reds announced a series of moves in their bullpen before tonight’s game in Pittsburgh. Lucas Sims has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to yesterday, due to lower back spasms. Cincinnati selected Robert Dugger to take his spot on the roster. The Reds also optioned Dauri Moreta to Triple-A Louisville and recalled Jared Solomon.
Sims heads to the IL for the second time this year. The right-hander missed the first two weeks of the season after back spasms delayed his Spring Training ramp-up work. He made it back for six games in between the IL stints but looked out of sorts. Sims has allowed seven runs, walked six batters and struck out just five during 6 2/3 frames of work. Last season’s 4.40 ERA across 47 frames wasn’t great, but he punched out an elite 39% of opponents on a hefty 14.8% swinging strike rate.
This year, the 28-year-old’s swing-and-miss numbers are way down. That’s also true of his velocity, with his fastball, slider and curveball all losing a tick or two relative to last season. It certainly seems as if he’s yet to get completely right physically, and a new bout of back spasms will keep him out for at least the next two weeks.
Dugger returns to the majors just four days after being designated for assignment. The righty cleared outright waivers and accepted an assignment to Louisville yesterday. He didn’t appear in a game for the Bats before quickly being called back up. Cincinnati never filled Dugger’s 40-man roster spot after designating him and also removed COVID substitute Ronnie Dawson from the roster earlier this week; their 40-man tally now sits at 39.
During his first MLB stint with the Reds, Dugger made just one appearance. He soaked up three innings of relief, but that workload knocked him out of commission for a few days. Because he’s out of minor league option years, the Reds then removed him from the 40-man to clear an active roster spot. That was the second time he’d found himself in that situation, as the Rays also DFA Dugger following one extended relief outing. He’ll again have to stick in the majors or be exposed to waivers now that he’s back in the big leagues.