Sabean Takes Lincecum/Cain Off The Table
The Aaron Rowand signing has led Brian Sabean to pull his young starters off the market (to the extent that they were ever available). Specifically, the idea of an Alex Rios for Tim Lincecum swap is dead.
The Giants are still looking for help at the infield corners and in the ‘pen. It’s hard to figure out what Sabean is doing – is he trying to win in 2008?
Rios For Cain Or Lincecum?
UPDATE, 12-5-07 at 6:16pm: Jeff Blair says the Jays’ offer on the table is Rios for Lincecum, straight up.
UPDATE, 12-5-07 at 12:34pm: Brian Sabean wants more than just Rios for Lincecum (yes, the Jays prefer Lincecum based on service time). The Giants want an improved proposal from the Jays, and Toronto could add Robinzon Diaz, Curtis Thigpen, or Brett Cecil. Cecil would have to be a player to be named later since he was drafted in 2007. He signed on June 22nd, so he can’t even be named as a PTBNL until December 22nd.
UPDATE, 12-5-07 at 10:56am: Peter Gammons via Amy Nelson is saying it’s Lincecum for Rios currently rather than Cain.
UPDATE, 12-5-07 at 10:10am: Ken Rosenthal has some more details on these talks. He says the Jays won’t add pitching to their side of the deal. Additionally, they don’t want to move A.J. Burnett. The Jays have a potentially elite rotation for 2008 if they can get Lincecum for Rios.
FROM 12-4-07 at 10:46pm:
The San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea verifies that the interesting proposal Brian Sabean referred to involved the Jays’ Alex Rios. The Jays want to swap him for Matt Cain. The Jays prefer Cain to Tim Lincecum, as they worry Lincecum might have durability issues.
It almost sounds like Lincecum alone wouldn’t get the Giants Rios, which is surprising. Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi is serious about trading Rios; he laid out to reporters what the Jays’ outfield would look like without him. By the way, the Giants have no interest in taking Troy Glaus in a deal. For their third base vacancy, the Giants are looking at Brandon Inge.
Meanwhile MLB.com’s Chris Haft believes the Jays want Lincecum for Rios. John, Chris – just talk to each other and sort this thing out.
Jays In On Lincecum, Bedard, Bay
UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 12:34am: Blair has updated his article to reflect the Jays’ interest in Cain and Lincecum. He says the Giants spent much of the day watching tape of the two, trying to decide which they prefer. Putting two and two together, maybe the "interesting offer" Brian Sabean spoke of today was Alex Rios?
FROM 12-3-07 at 8:46pm:
The Globe and Mail’s Jeff Blair has several new rumors in his column tonight.
- The Jays’ President, Paul Godfrey, is all about bringing in a big-name Canadian player. Blair rattles off Jason Bay, Erik Bedard, Ryan Dempster, Rich Harden, and Eric Gagne as available Canada natives. Of course, not all of those guys would be draws.
- The Jays are indeed in on Bedard, which is a surprise since starting pitching is a strength of theirs. This idea has been around since at least May though. Blair talked to one exec who said the Jays are planning to get "aggressive and creative." It had been previously thought the Jays would have a low-key winter.
- Blair talks of somehow sending A.J. Burnett to Baltimore in a Bedard deal, which makes little sense for the O’s even if Burnett would like to play there. In my estimation the O’s could ask for Alex Rios or Dustin McGowan for Bedard. The Jays could try to push Adam Lind and Shaun Marcum instead but I don’t see that getting it done. I could see the O’s asking about Travis Snider as well.
- Blair says the Jays could get Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum "right away" if they’d offer Rios to the Giants. Blair even says an expanded deal could send Lind and/or Troy Glaus over to San Francisco as well. Hmmm.
- Jordan Bastian of MLB.com isn’t hearing any of this stuff – but he did connect the Jays to…Paul Bako. Blair and Bastian present two very different stories around the same ballclub.
Giants Rumors: Lincecum, Tejada, Molina, Fukudome
Another MLB.com article for you, this time about the Giants from Chris Haft.
- Brian Sabean is getting a bit annoyed with teams thinking Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are available. They’re pretty much not, but since the door is open a crack it may be inhibiting other deals. Sabean did admit that one team made an "interesting" offer for Lincecum. Any guesses?
- The Giants had talks with the Orioles about Miguel Tejada, as has been reported elsewhere. The Giants aren’t thrilled with Miggy though because of his age, salary, and the position switch thing.
- A team asked about Bengie Molina. Any guesses on that? The Marlins don’t seem right. Rays maybe?
- Nothing much going on regarding free agents Andruw Jones and Kosuke Fukudome.
Will Matt Cain Throw A No-Hitter?
Recently, I mentioned that a cool stat would be a pitcher’s percentage likelihood of throwing a no-hitter. Little did I know, Bill James devised this exact formula.
I plugged in Matt Cain‘s career numbers. His chances of throwing a no-hitter in any given start are 0.27%. Not too bad! Nolan Ryan‘s chances in any given start were 0.35%.
So after figuring that out it’s just a volume game. If Cain makes 100 career starts, we should expect 0.27 no-hitters. It follows that if he makes 364 career starts and maintains his hit rate, he should be expected to throw exactly one no-hitter. (Let’s not get into his hit rate worsening after his peak right now).
Can Cain make that many career starts? I honestly have no idea, but it seems reasonable on the surface (about 13 seasons). John Smoltz is his top comparable, and Smoltz is at 429 starts so far. However, a lot of promising young guys never sniff 300 career starts. Browsing Cain’s top ten comparables, only two have reached 300 (Smoltz and Andy Benes, although Josh Beckett has a shot).
Still, I think it’s fair to say that over the life of his new contract, it’s nearly a coin flip that Cain tosses a no-no.
Giants Sign Cain Long-Term
UPDATE: Cain did indeed settle for Lowry money. I guess he places a large price on security and certainty.
The Giants will announce later today that they have signed Matt Cain to a four-year contract with a fifth-year option.
We don’t know the details quite yet, but MLB.com’s Chris Haft theorizes that the contract will resemble Noah Lowry‘s – four years, $9.25MM with a $6.25MM option year. El Lefty Malo, a fine Giants blog, disagrees. They argue that Cain’s contract should be between that of Lowry’s and the projected earnings of Dontrelle Willis, who is not on a long-term deal. Throwing in some inflation, they arrive at a total package of five years and $26MM. We should know soon enough.
In 2006, Cain had five one-hit starts. One of them was a complete game gem. It’s got to be only a matter of time before this guy tosses a no-hitter. That’d be a cool Bill James stat – % likelihood of throwing a no-hitter.