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Phillies Notes: Madson, Nathan, Moyer, Lambe

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The Phillies have a number of issues to address this winter, including Jimmy Rollins' impending free agency.  The shortstop is after a five-year deal but the club will likely push for a shorter contract.  Here's a look at some other news out of the City of Brotherly Love..

  • General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. wants stability in the ninth inning, but committing top dollar and multiple years to a proven closer has its risks, opines Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.  Earlier this month, the GM said that if Phillies don't re-sign closer Ryan Madson, the club will go outside the organization for a replacement.
  • On his blog, Gelb suggests that 37-year-old Joe Nathan could be a sensible choice for the Phillies this offseason.  Nathan would come cheap and could serve as a stopgap while one of the club's young arms develop and build towards taking over the role of closer.  The right-hander pitched 44.2 innings in 2011 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing the 2010 season.
  • Former Phillies left-hander Jamie Moyer, who will turn 49 in November, continues to eye a comeback in 2012, writes Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com.  Moyer is roughly 11 months removed from undergoing Tommy John surgery.
  • The Phillies reached out to Bryan Lambe about joining their organization just after he agreed to become an area scout for the Astros, tweets Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated.  Heyman calls Lambe a "man of integrity" for not wavering after giving his word to Houston.

Free Agent Closers’ Usage

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The upcoming class of free agents figures to present an interesting study in the way teams are evaluating relievers these days. After Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, many of the most recognizable names are closers or relievers who have previously closed.

Modern analysis suggests it's foolish to invest heavily in relief pitchers due to their limited contributions and volatility in year-to-year production. But someone has to get those crucial late-inning outs, and the temptation for a team that thinks it's a contender to throw a lot of money at a guy who's coming off a year in which he posted a minuscule ERA or eye-popping strikeout rate is often too great.

Undoubtedly, suitors will use a variety of criteria to evaluate free-agent closers, one of which will be usage. Because usage can encompass so many things — innings, appearances, pitches, "high-stress" pitches, and so on — it's tough to say which is the most accurate reflection of a pitcher's workload; of course, this debate continues on for starters, too.

During the season, with the launch of CloserNews.com, we began keeping an eye on relievers who had pitched on three (and four) consecutive days, as that seems to be the breaking point for when most relievers must be rested. We've tallied that up here in a spreadsheet, along with a few other measures (standard and otherwise) of reliever usage, for the upcoming class of free-agent closers.

The objective here isn't to make any bold proclamations based on who threw the most innings; I may as well pen the inevitable mea culpa right now if it were. Rather, there are some interesting tidbits of note here, a few things to file away as these relievers ready themselves for free agency and teams prepare to bid.

  • Heath Bell and Francisco Cordero were the only two of this group to pitch on four consecutive days in 2011. Bell is the only one to do it twice.
  • Bell's abundance of pitches certainly seems to correspond with his dip in strikeout rate (7.32 K/9 in 2011 vs. 9.22 for career). Looks like he was having trouble putting away hitters, at least relative to his past performances.
  • Francisco Rodriguez paced the group by pitching on three consecutive days six times. 
  • Heavy usage is not unusual for K-Rod, though. He's pitched fewer than 65 innings only once in his nine full big league seasons, the red herring due to an off-field incident in 2010.
  • Info was culled from Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference.

Heyman On Crawford, Pujols, Buehrle, Madson

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At least one Molina brother has been in six of the past ten World Series, as Jon Heyman points out at SI.com (that includes Yadier, who will play again this year). Heyman also passes along some hot stove notes; here they are:

  • Red Sox owner John Henry “threw $60MM into the air,'' by making it clear that he views the Carl Crawford signing as a mistake, according to one baseball person. Henry said on the airwaves of 98.5 the Sports Hub that he was not in favor of signing the left fielder for $142MM.
  • One agent says Albert Pujols should look for a six-year, $240MM deal in free agency. It’s hard to imagine anyone, even Pujols, signing for $40MM per year.
  • The White Sox are expected to try to keep Mark Buehrle on a two-year deal, according to Heyman. The left-hander profiles as a Type B free agent, as our rankings show.
  • Jayson Werth, who played with Ryan Madson in Philadelphia, is trying to sell the free agent closer on the Nationals. Keep in mind that the Nationals already have Drew Storen.
  • Zack Greinke told Heyman that he would have accepted a trade to the Rangers last winter, when the Royals were shopping him.

Phillies Aim To Sign Free Agent Closer

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Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. talked to reporters today at Citizens Bank Park, and David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News has the transcript.  Highlights:

  • If the Phillies don't re-sign closer Ryan Madson, Amaro will go outside the organization for a replacement, he told reporters including MLB.com's Todd Zolecki today.  Madson, a Scott Boras client, could be a tough sign.  Amaro said he talked to Madson yesterday, and the righty is excited about free agency.  The Phillies can at least get a couple of draft picks as a consolation prize.  Heath Bell, Jonathan Papelbon, Jonathan Broxton, Matt Capps, Francisco Cordero, Frank Francisco, Joe Nathan, and Francisco Rodriguez are also on the free agent market.
  • Amaro said he'd like Domonic Brown to spend another full season in Triple-A (Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer with the tweet).  Brown, one of the game's top prospects prior to the season, hit .245/.333/.391 in 210 plate appearances in the Majors this year.  Most of Brown's starts came prior to the team's acquisition of Hunter Pence.  Amaro says Brown has some work to do in left field, a position that will be an "open competition" for the 2012 Phillies.
  • Amaro does not think Ryan Howard's torn Achilles tendon will impact the team's offseason moves.
  • Free agent signings are more likely than trades.
  • The Phillies are still discussing Roy Oswalt's $16MM option internally.  Amaro says that "might be a tough one."  The Phillies' front office has also internally discussed extending Cole Hamels.
  • The Phillies' payroll is expected to be similar to this year's.

Poll: Ryan Madson Vs. Heath Bell

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Most statistics say Phillies closer Ryan Madson had a better 2011 than Padres stopper Heath Bell.  Madson is three years younger, but Bell has tallied three consecutive 40-save seasons.  Both righties are Type A free agents, and guessing their contracts is an interesting exercise.

In the last three years, Madson has increased his strikeout rate to more than a batter per inning while maintaining strong walk and groundball rates.  He had a reputation as someone who was better off in the eighth than the ninth inning heading into this year, but Madson silenced those critics by converting 32 of 34 opportunities once pressed into duty.  He's represented by Scott Boras, and will find a three-year deal with ease.  No free agent reliever has gotten a four-year deal since Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink four years ago, but I think Madson has a shot.

Bell experienced a marked decline in strikeout rate this year, showing signs of his old rate only in September.  He still limited hits and home runs and converted 43 of 48 save opportunities.  Bell wants and expects to remain in San Diego, saying in August that he'd accept arbitration if the Padres offer.  Padres owner Jeff Moorad said one year was preferable to the team in some ways.  It was reported later that month that the Padres offered a two-year, $14MM deal while Bell was seeking $27-30MM over three years.  Bell is represented by ACES, an agency known for getting strong multiyear deals for veteran free agents.

For the sake of argument, let's say both relievers reach the open market.  That's not hard to picture with Madson, who will certainly cost a draft pick to sign.  For Bell to reach the open market, the Padres would probably have to decline to offer him arbitration.  So in this scenario Madson costs a draft pick to sign and Bell does not.  Working under these assumptions, which reliever gets a bigger overall contract, Madson or Bell? 

Bigger contract: Ryan Madson or Heath Bell?
Heath Bell 56.24% (3,966 votes)
Ryan Madson 43.76% (3,086 votes)
Total Votes: 7,052

Heyman On Fielder, Rollins, Madson

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SI's Jon Heyman leads his column by ranking the favorites for Prince Fielder, putting the Brewers sixth while noting that owner Mark Attanasio "should never be counted out and is expected to make one final run" to retain his slugger.  Heyman's other notes:

  • The Phillies "very much" want to re-sign shortstop Jimmy Rollins.  Heyman thinks the Phillies are willing to do a three-year contract while Rollins is expected to seek four or five.  Rollins, 33 in November, is hitting .268/.338/.395 in 582 plate appearances this year.  UZR continues to rate his defense as above average, and it seems likely Rollins will score an eight-figure salary for the first time in his career.
  • The Red Sox "are thought to have interest" in Phillies closer Ryan Madson.  Madson, a 31-year-old Scott Boras client, has a 2.54 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.32 HR/9, and 50% groundball rate in 56 2/3 innings this year.  Last week MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith explained that Madson will probably cost another team a draft pick, but a three-year deal appears likely.  In March, Madson said he wanted to finish his career with the Phillies.

 

Free Agent Stock Watch: Ryan Madson

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A total of 17 relief pitchers signed multiyear deals last offseason and while there’s no guarantee that owners will spend just as freely this year, it won’t be surprising if they do. So with a number of closing jobs opening up around baseball, Ryan Madson’s job prospects are promising.

The 31-year-old right-hander has been consistently effective since returning to the bullpen in 2007, so agent Scott Boras will be able to point interested teams to an array of impressive stats. There’s Madson’s 2.63 ERA (supported by his 2.59 SIERA and 3.06 xFIP), his 94.1 mph fastball and his 31 saves. His peripheral stats are also strong – 0.33 HR/9, 9.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 50.7% ground ball rate – and he can handle hitters on both sides of the plate.

There's a line of thinking that opposes major commitments to relievers given the volatility of their stats from year to year and their limited ability to shape the outcome of a game or season (in relation to starting pitchers or position players). The era of four and five year deals for top closers may be over, but Boras can point to Madson's consistency in an attempt to obtain multiyear offers. The 6'6" Californian has kept his ERA at 3.26 or below, pitched at least 53 innings and struck out at least 6.9 batters per nine innings every season since 2007. 

Like Jonathan Papelbon, who will probably be the top free agent reliever of the year, Madson projects as a Type A free agent. Given the Phillies’ need for relief help and Madson’s current salary of $4.5MM, an offer of arbitration seems likely. Assuming Madson declines, he’ll cost teams other than the Phillies a top pick in next year’s draft, which will reduce some clubs’ interest.

A pair of MLB executives recently predicted to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark that Madson will sign a deal like the one Jose Valverde obtained two winters ago: $14MM over two years plus an option (Valverde was a Type A free agent at the time). Madson seems destined for a multiyear deal and a three-year contract seems likely to me. Setup men such as Joaquin Benoit, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Scott Downs found three-year deals last winter and Boras obtained $35MM over three years for Rafael Soriano. It's hard to imagine Madson signing for that much money, but some general managers and owners will probably be willing to guarantee Madson a third year for the promise of bullpen stability.

Stark On Madson, Astros, Beane, Nationals

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MLB is building momentum toward two 15-team leagues with three five-team divisions per league, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark. It doesn't appear that the players’ association will agree to expand the postseason unless owners agree to more balanced schedules and divisions, Stark reports. Here are the rest of his rumors…

  • It appears that the Tigers and Rays will pick up their options for Jose Valverde and Kyle Farnsworth, respectively, this offseason.
  • Two MLB executives predicted to Stark that Ryan Madson will sign a deal like the one Valverde obtained two winters ago: $14MM over two years plus an option.
  • Multiple teams have expressed concerns about Francisco Rodriguez’s off-field “baggage,” though K-Rod stands out as one of the best free agent relievers of the winter.
  • Stark hears that MLB has been slow to approve incoming Astros owner Jim Crane in order to apply leverage on Crane so that he’ll agree to move the Astros to the American League. Earlier today, Bob Nightengale of USA Today had a report that conflicts with Stark’s article.
  • Friends of Billy Beane say the A’s GM has legitimate interest in the Cubs GM job, though he has an ownership stake and lots of freedom in Oakland.
  • Nationals GM Mike Rizzo will interview managerial candidates this offseason before deciding whether Davey Johnson will return as manager in 2012.
  • First base doesn’t appear to be a priority for Washington, but Rizzo says "you never want to say never” when it comes to possible offseason moves.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Beltran, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees

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Earlier today it was the Full Count video, and now Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has some more notes in a separate video…

  • Carlos Beltran doesn't figure to be with the Mets much longer, especially since the team is willing to pick up the majority of the $6MM or so left on his contract. The Giants, Indians, Tigers, Red Sox, and Phillies all have interest.
  • The Phillies prefer Mike Adams to Heath Bell because they'd have him under team control as an arbitration-eligible player next season. They're concerned they may lose Ryan Madson as a free agent this winter.
  • The Red Sox keep saying they don't need starting pitching, but that could change before the deadline. Hiroki Kuroda is one possible target. 
  • The Yankees continue to look for starting pitching, especially after Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia got knocked around in their first starts after the All-Star break. Ubaldo Jimenez is out there, and the Rockies will at very least dangle him just to see if someone overwhelms them with an offer.

Heyman On Cubs, Reyes, Street, Dodgers

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Jon Heyman of SI.com hands out his midseason awards and Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Verlander, Jose Reyes and Roy Halladay are among those who take home some virtual hardware. Here’s Heyman’s latest from around the Major Leagues…

  • Though Cubs manager Mike Quade appears to be safe, GM Jim Hendry doesn’t have assurances that he’ll keep his job, according to Heyman.
  • The Mets will make Reyes an offer, but one GM believes it will cost more than the $142MM Carl Crawford obtained to sign the shortstop when he hits free agency after the season.
  • I compared Reyes to Crawford on Monday and suggested that Reyes appears headed for a Crawford-like deal.
  • The Phillies would like to re-sign Ryan Madson after the season, when the currently injured closer hits free agency.
  • Huston Street could hit the trade market if the Rockies keep losing.
  • The Dodgers are saying they don’t expect to consider trading players away for two weeks or more.
  • Former Mets GM Omar Minaya is expected to join a different team in 2012.
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