The Dodgers’ Youth Movement Is Showing Positive Results
The Dodgers are coming off a relatively modest offseason by their standards, giving out a few one-year deals to free agents and making some small trades. It seems that may have been partially motivated by a desire to get under the luxury tax, though that plan effectively went out the window when Trevor Bauer‘s suspension was reduced and some of his salary was put back on their books. Leaving the financials aside, there was another argument for the light touch in the winter. They had a crop of young players who seemed ready for some big league looks, having six players on Baseball America’s top 100 list coming into the year (Diego Cartaya, Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch, Ryan Pepiot, Gavin Stone) despite ten consecutive postseason berths.
What results have been produced in the first six weeks of the season? Let’s take a look.
Remarkably, the young player who has stood out the most so far at the big league level is Outman, who wasn’t even one of the six Dodgers on the Baseball America top 100. BA actually ranked him the 10th best prospect in the system coming into the year. In fact, there’s been a wide gap in the evaluations on Outman throughout the industry on account of his incredible athleticism but huge strikeout concerns. Keith Law of The Athletic was bullish enough to rank Outman #89 in the league, but Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs had him down at #26 in the Dodgers’ system.
Outman, 26 years old this weekend, made the club’s Opening Day roster and is showing both the positive and negative sides of his game so far. He’s struck out in 32.7% of his plate appearances, currently the seventh-highest among all qualified hitters in the majors. But despite those punchouts, he’s hit eight home runs in 38 games and is batting .281/.374/.578 overall for a wRC+ of 158. He won’t be able to maintain a .389 batting average on balls in play all year, but he is hitting the ball with some authority when he does make contact. His average exit velocity is in the 54th percentile among qualified hitters, maximum exit velocity 73rd, hard-hit rate 71st and barrel rate 84th.
In addition to that, he’s also stolen four bases and seems to be a capable defender in the outfield, where he’s spent most of his time in center. Defensive Runs Saved has him just below average at -1, whereas he’s at +3 Outs Above Average and has a 2.0 Ultimate Zone Rating.
Vargas, 23, made his major league debut last year but hit just .170/.200/.255 in his first 50 plate appearances. Nonetheless, the club seemed to head into this year with the plan being for him to take over second base while Gavin Lux slid over to shortstop, though Lux eventually suffered a season-ending injury and was replaced by Miguel Rojas.
The club’s confidence in Vargas seems to be paying off so far. He’s walked in 14.6% of his plate appearances while striking out at just a 19% clip. He’s launched four home runs and his .219/.338/.430 batting line amounts to a 113 wRC+. That’s despite a .247 BABIP that’s well below this year’s .297 league average. His Statcast metrics aren’t quite as strong as Outman’s, but it still seems like luck-based regression should work in his favor, given his .265 xBA.
The defensive picture is a little less rosy, however, as he has negative grades from all three of DRS, UZR and OAA so far. That’s not terribly shocking since he was primarily a third baseman in the minors and his experience at the keystone is minimal. Perhaps his glovework at second will improve with more reps, but the club might also consider a position change in the future.
Busch, 25, was added to the club’s roster almost three weeks ago but has received only scattered playing time so far, 23 plate appearances in seven games. He’s hit just .211/.348/.211 in that time while striking out at a 39.1% clip. In 606 Triple-A appearances, he’s slashed .277/.363/.484 for a wRC+ of 109 with a much more palatable 24.8% strikeout rate.
Michael Grove/Ryan Pepiot/Gavin Stone/Bobby Miller
These four pitchers are all touted prospects to varying degrees and have either made their major league debuts or are getting close, though none of them has been able to make significant contributions just yet.
Grove, 26, has perhaps the lowest prospect stock of the bunch, as he was considered the club’s #18 prospect by BA and #12 by FanGraphs coming into the year. He’s made 11 appearances at the major league level between last year and this year but has a 5.96 ERA and modest 18.3% strikeout rate. He’s been on the injured list for the past three weeks due to a groin strain.
Pepiot, 25, made nine appearances for the club last year with a 3.47 ERA. He was expected to take an Opening Day rotation spot when Tony Gonsolin was injured, but then Pepiot suffered an oblique strain, which allowed Grove to take that spot. Pepiot was eventually transferred to the 60-day injured list, meaning he won’t be eligible to rejoin the big league club until the end of May at the earliest.
Stone, 24, was selected to the roster just over a week ago and had one rough spot start before getting optioned back to down to the minors. But in 13 Triple-A starts between last year and this year, he has a 2.87 ERA, 29.2% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate.
Miller, 24, is not yet on the 40-man roster and isn’t off to a great start this year. In 2022, between Double-A and Triple-A, he had a 4.25 ERA in 112 1/3 innings. He struck out 30.9% of opponents in that time against a 7.9% walk rate. But this year, he was slowed by shoulder soreness in spring and didn’t debut until recently. He’s pitched just five innings over two Triple-A outings, with a 7.20 ERA in that minuscule sample.
Future Options
Diego Cartaya is considered by many to be the club’s best prospect, though he’s not as close as some of the others. The 21-year-old catcher is on the 40-man roster but just reached Double-A for the first time this year and has limped out to a .186/.253/.314 batting line through his first 79 plate appearances at that level. With Will Smith and Austin Barnes holding down the big league jobs, there’s little reason for the club to rush Cartaya.
Andy Pages, 22, didn’t make BA’s top 100 list, but FanGraphs had him all the way up at #58. Like Cartaya, the outfielder is on the 40-man roster but is down in Double-A. Unlike Cartaya, he’s off to a roaring start there, hitting .281/.429/.490 for a wRC+ of 141 through 126 plate appearances this year.
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After a middling start to the 2023 season, the Dodgers have surged forward in recent weeks are now 23-15, taking the top spot in the National League West. They may not be quite as dominant as some other recent seasons, but there’s still plenty going right for them. At least part of that is due to the contributions of Outman and Vargas, who have stepped into everyday roles and are doing well. The pitching is still a work in progress due to various injuries throughout that mix, so they’ll need a bit more time for things to come into focus there.
Since they had a fairly limited offseason coming into this year, the Dodgers currently have about $82MM committed to the 2024 team, per Roster Resource. That doesn’t include arbitration salaries for players like Smith, May and others, but it seems like they could be well positioned to be more aggressive next winter. The areas that they target will likely be influenced by the performance of some of these rookies the rest of the way. The rotation is currently slated to lose Julio Urías, Noah Syndergaard and Clayton Kershaw at season’s end. Kershaw could always come back and the eventual return of Walker Buehler from Tommy John surgery will help, but one of the younger pitchers stepping up would also be a tremendous help.
On the position player side of things, J.D. Martinez, David Peralta and Jason Heyward are set for free agency, but the rest of the group should still be around. If Outman and Vargas keep playing well, or someone like Busch or Pages takes a step forward, it’s possible the club goes into the winter with lots of payroll space and few holes to fill.
Dodgers Select Jake Reed, Place Michael Grove On Injured List
The Dodgers announced Friday that they’ve placed right-hander Michael Grove on the 15-day injured list due to a groin strain and selected the contract of fellow righty Jake Reed from Triple-A Oklahoma City in his place. Los Angeles transferred righty Ryan Pepiot from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Reed. Pepiot has been out all season thus far due to an oblique strain and will now be sidelined until the end of May, at the earliest.
Grove, 26, opened the season as the Dodgers’ fifth starter — a role that had initially been won by Pepiot before he suffered that oblique strain. While Grove is sporting a grisly 8.44 ERA, that number is particularly skewed by one disastrous outing in which the D-backs ambushed him for nine runs in three innings of work. He hasn’t exactly dominated in his other three outings but has kept the club generally competitive, with a 4.26 ERA in those three outings. The new injury will derail his ability to continue whittling away at that unsightly ERA for at least the next couple weeks.
This is the second big league season for Grove, who also pitched 29 1/3 frames of 4.60 ERA ball for the Dodgers late in the 2022 campaign. While he’s never been regarded as a premier prospect, he’s consistently ranked among the organization’s 20 to 25 best prospects since being selected in the second round of the 2018 draft. His 2022 campaign in the minors was particularly solid, as Grove logged a combined 3.79 ERA with a 28% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate in 76 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.
The 30-year-old Reed has spent time with the Dodgers in each of the past two seasons, though he’s pitched just ten innings for them at the big league level. He’s allowed just three runs on 11 hits and three walks with seven punchouts during his time as a Dodger, but Reed has a 5.74 ERA in 26 1/3 innings as a big leaguer overall.
A fifth-round pick of the Twins back in 2014, Reed was once a promising bullpen prospect in Minnesota’s system but has yet to consistently produce in limited big league opportunities. Over the past three seasons, he’s bounced between the Dodgers, Rays, Mets, Orioles and Red Sox via waivers, with multiple stops in L.A. along that circuitous journey.
With Grove joining Pepiot and Tony Gonsolin on the injured list, the Dodgers are down to four healthy starters: Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Dustin May and Noah Syndergaard. That said, the team has a scheduled off-day next Monday, which will allow them to skip the fifth spot in the rotation. As such, they won’t need a fifth starter until April 30, at the earliest.
The Dodgers could opt for a bullpen game that day, as they don’t have any ready-made options on the 40-man roster outside of long reliever Andre Jackson. Alternatively, if the team wants to open some space on the 40-man roster, the Dodgers have top prospects Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone in Triple-A, as well as non-roster veterans Robbie Erlin, Dylan Covey and Matt Andriese. Grove will be eligible to return in early May, and the Dodgers are also expecting to get Gonsolin back sometime in the middle of next month.
Dodgers Notes: Gonsolin, Pepiot, Smith
Tony Gonsolin is getting closer to making his season debut. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters Gonsolin got through a 30-plus pitch bullpen session today (relayed by Juan Toribio of MLB.com). Gonsolin will begin a rehab stint with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday, with the expectation he’ll throw around four innings.
Gonsolin is rehabbing from an ankle sprain he suffered midway through Spring Training. Roberts indicated he’d need at least two rehab starts before he’s ready to head back to the MLB rotation. That could position him for a return towards the tail end of next week. That’d be a very welcome development, as Gonsolin worked to a 2.14 ERA through 130 1/3 innings in an All-Star season last year.
Ryan Pepiot had been expected to take Gonsolin’s rotation spot out of the gate. Unfortunately for the 25-year-old, he suffered an oblique strain at the end of Spring Training. It appears he’s a ways off, as Roberts said the righty is still limited to plyometric work and hasn’t yet started throwing (via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). While the return timetable isn’t clear, it’s apparent that Pepiot’s progress has been slower than initially hoped.
L.A. has turned to Michael Grove with Gonsolin and Pepiot out of action. The West Virginia product was hit hard in his first two starts of the season before a strong showing on Saturday. He allowed just one run with six strikeouts and two walks in 5 2/3 innings in a win over the Cubs. Even that solid work still brought Grove to a 9.00 ERA in 13 frames this season.
The Dodgers were dealt a hit on the position player side last week. Catcher Will Smith landed on the concussion injured list retroactive to April 13. That only contains a minimum stint of seven days, meaning Smith could return as early as Thursday. The star backstop attributed the injury to a series of recent foul tips off the mask (link via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). Smith said he’d proceed with understandable caution given the nature of the injury but noted that he’s already working out and plans to travel with the club on their road trip spanning April 20-27.
It seems he’s on track to return without a rehab stint if all goes well, perhaps not long after he’s first eligible. The Dodgers signed Austin Wynns to a major league deal to back up Austin Barnes while Smith is out. Wynns has exhausted his minor league option years, so his stay on the 40-man roster may prove brief if the Dodgers don’t plan to carry three catchers once Smith makes his return.
Tony Gonsolin, Ryan Pepiot Likely To Be Sidelined Into May
The Dodgers look likely to be without starters Tony Gonsolin and Ryan Pepiot into May, skipper Dave Roberts told the beat this evening (relayed by Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times).
Both hurlers opened the season on the injured list. Gonsolin sprained his ankle after a pitcher-fielding practice in Spring Training. Pepiot had earned the vacated spot in the starting five but suffered an oblique strain just prior to Opening Day. That pushed Michael Grove into the rotation while robbing Pepiot of a chance to break camp for the first time in his career.
Gonsolin seems the further ahead of the two. He’s throwing to hitters at the team’s spring complex. He’ll do so at least once more before the team considers sending him out a minor league rehab assignment, which could still be multiple weeks away. There’s no indication Gonsolin has suffered any kind of setback but his recovery has moved a little slower than anticipated. Pepiot, on the other hand, has yet to resume throwing. There’s still no public timetable as to when he might be able to pick up a ball, much less return to big league action.
Losing Gonsolin, in particular, has thinned Los Angeles’ rotation early in the season. Grove has gotten hit hard in his first two starts, surrendering 12 runs across 7 1/3 innings. That’s been a big factor in the Dodgers’ uncharacteristically middling 4.47 rotation ERA through the first couple weeks. Grove is one of the organization’s more interesting pitching prospects but hasn’t found success yet in his brief big league career. He allowed a 4.60 ERA over seven appearances (six starts) as a rookie, bringing his career mark to 6.63 in 36 2/3 frames.
Dodgers Place Ryan Pepiot On Injured List With Oblique Strain
The Dodgers announced to reporters, including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter links), some Opening Day roster moves. Outfielder Jason Heyward has had his contract selected, with infielder Gavin Lux going on the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move. Also, right-hander Ryan Pepiot will begin the season on the injured list with a left oblique strain. Fellow righty Michael Grove will take his place on the roster.
Heyward taking the roster spot of Lux is no surprise, as the latter suffered a torn ACL during the spring and is expected to miss the entirety of the upcoming season. It was also reported a week ago that Heyward would make the Opening Day roster, jumping into the outfield mix alongside Mookie Betts, David Peralta, Trayce Thompson and James Outman.
Pepiot’s injury, on the other hand, is new information. It was less than a week ago that it was reported he beat out Grove for the final rotation spot. The two hurlers each got to make brief MLB debuts last year, with Pepiot posting a 3.47 ERA in 36 1/3 innings while Grove had a 4.60 ERA in 29 1/3 innings. In this year’s Spring Training, Pepiot had a 3.29 ERA in 13 2/3 innings while Grove had a 5.40 ERA in 16 2/3 innings. Manager Dave Roberts said that Pepiot “outperformed” Grove for the job, but Grove will now take the gig with Pepiot on the shelf.
The Dodgers will still have a strong front four in their rotation in Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May and Noah Syndergaard, but their depth is going to be tested early. The reason the fifth spot even became up for grabs was because Tony Gonsolin suffered an ankle sprain and isn’t expected back until late April. The club hasn’t provided a timeline on Pepiot’s injury but even mild oblique strains often require weeks-long absences. That should leave the Dodgers down two starters for a while.
Grove, 26, has been considered one of the club’s top 20 prospects in recent years due to his work in the minors. He posted a 3.79 ERA in 76 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year, striking out 28% of opponents against an 8.1% walk rate. Though he didn’t quite match those results in the big leagues last year, he’ll look to take a step forward here in 2023.
Should the Dodgers need another starter in the next few weeks, the best healthy option on the 40-man roster might be Andre Jackson, though they will also have non-roster option in top prospects Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone.
Dodgers Option Michael Grove, Name Ryan Pepiot Fifth Starter
The Dodgers optioned Michael Grove to Triple-A Oklahoma City, according to the transactions log at MLB.com. That brings to an end the battle for the fifth starter’s role, which had been down to Grove and Ryan Pepiot. Los Angeles also optioned lefty reliever Victor González.
Manager Dave Roberts indicated the Dodgers felt Pepiot outperformed Grove this spring (relayed by Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). Pepiot certainly did a better job keeping runs off the board, allowing five runs in 13 2/3 frames. Grove was tagged for ten runs across 16 2/3 innings, albeit with a quality 17:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Pepiot also fared very well in that regard, punching out 19 while walking five.
L.A. will turn to Pepiot as the #5 starter behind Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard and Dustin May to open the year. The Dodgers will be without Tony Gonsolin for a few weeks due to an ankle sprain, opening the path for the two younger hurlers to battle for a starting job.
Pepiot, a fairly recent top prospect, made his big league debut last season. The 25-year-old started seven out of nine appearances, working to a quality 3.47 ERA. He punched out an above-average 26.3% of batters faced but issued walks at an untenable 16.9% clip. He’d kept the walks to a more manageable 9.8% rate while striking out over 30% of opposing hitters in 91 1/3 innings in Oklahoma City.
Tony Gonsolin Expected To Open Season On Injured List
Dodgers right-hander Tony Gonsolin won’t be ready for the beginning of the season due to his current ankle injury, manager Dave Roberts announced Friday (Twitter link via Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times). He’s expected to open the season on the 15-day injured list. Righties Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove are the favorites to break camp as the Dodgers’ fifth starter with Gonsolin on the IL.
The Dodgers are hoping for a relatively minimal absence for the 28-year-old Gonsolin, who improbably injured his ankle walking off the field following pitchers’ fielding practice earlier in camp. He’s only just recently resumed a throwing program, and there’s simply not enough time for him to get built back up enough to break camp in the rotation 13 days from now.
[Related: The Dodgers’ Rotation Options if Tony Gonsolin Misses Time]
Gonsolin started a career-high 24 games during the 2022 regular-season, pitching to a sensational 2.14 ERA with a quality 23.9% strikeout rate against a strong 7.0% walk rate over the life of 130 1/3 innings. He undoubtedly benefited from a .207 batting average on balls in play that he won’t sustain over a larger sample, but even with some expected regression he’s still a well above-average big league pitcher. The 132 1/3 innings he pitched between Triple-A and the Majors last year was the highest total he’s reached in any pro season since being drafted in 2016, however, so there are some durability concerns with the talented righty.
Both Pepiot and Grove are well-regarded prospects, though the former has drawn more national fanfare than the latter. Pepiot, 25, ranked among Baseball America’s top-100 prospects both last offseason (No. 99) and this offseason (No. 55). He pitched to a 3.47 ERA in his first MLB cup of coffee last season and a 2.56 mark in Triple-A, combining for a total of 127 2/3 innings. Pepiot’s command has never been his strong point but was particularly troubling in his brief debut last year, when he walked 27 of 160 batters (16.9%). He’ll obviously need to improve upon that mark to have success over the long run.
As for the 26-year-old Grove, he also made his big league debut in 2022, tossing 29 1/3 innings of 4.60 ERA ball. Grove’s 18% strikeout rate was well below average, but he recorded a solid 7.5% walk rate in his first big league audition. He also logged a 3.79 ERA in 76 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, displaying strong strikeout and walk rates along the way as he rose to the Majors.
Either Pepiot or Grove seems capable of filling what’s likely to be a short-term absence for Gonsolin behind a projected top four of Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard and Dustin May. There’s plenty of injury concern amid that group, and May’s workload will likely be monitored in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, so it stands to reason that Pepiot and Grove could both be called upon multiple times over the course of the season. Further down the depth chart, top prospects Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone are joined by veterans Robbie Erlin and Dylan Covey. None are on the 40-man roster, but both Miller and Stone are top-100 prospects themselves and viewed as potential long-term options in the Los Angeles rotation.
The Dodgers’ Rotation Options If Tony Gonsolin Misses Time
The Dodgers were dealt some undesirable news last week when All-Star starter Tony Gonsolin rolled his left ankle during a pitcher-fielding practice session. He was diagnosed with a sprain and unable to put much weight on the leg for a few days.
Manager Dave Roberts told reporters yesterday that Gonsolin has again started throwing (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). He’s progressed to long toss from 120 feet but has yet to return to the mound. With Opening Day two weeks out, it seems increasingly likely he’ll require a stint on the 15-day injured list.
If that proves the case, the Dodgers will have to add someone to the season-opening rotation behind Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard and Dustin May. Los Angeles doesn’t have the luxury some clubs do of many built-in off days early in the year. They’re scheduled for games in 13 of the first 14 days and 24 of the initial 26 days of the regular season. Unless the club wants to cover some starts via bullpen games, they’ll need a fifth starter if Gonsolin isn’t available.
Likely Front Runners
Ryan Pepiot, 25, two minor league option years remaining
Pepiot seems the favorite for the job. He started seven of his first nine big league games last season, working to a 3.47 ERA over 36 1/3 innings. Pepiot struck out an above-average 26.3% of opponents but his 16.9% walk rate was untenable for a player hoping to stick in a rotation. He showed more serviceable control in the minors, walking 9.8% of batters faced with a lofty 30.9% strikeout rate and a 2.56 ERA in 91 1/3 frames for Triple-A Oklahoma City.
A former third-round pick, Pepiot has developed into one of the better pitching prospects in the sport. The Butler product has a wipeout changeup and plus spin on a fastball that averaged just under 94 MPH last season. Evaluators have expressed trepidation about his breaking ball and especially the consistency of his strike-throwing. Still, he’s an intriguing young pitcher with upper minors success who has shown a decent ability to miss bats early in his time at the big league level. He’s not a finished product but could be capable of providing the Dodgers with a few solid starts in a fill-in capacity.
Michael Grove, 26, two options remaining
A second-round pick in the 2018 draft, Grove overcame some early-career injury concerns to reach the majors last year. He started six of his first seven big league games, posting a 4.60 ERA through 29 1/3 frames. That came with a modest 18% strikeout rate and a lot of hard contact. The 6’3″ righty did a solid job throwing strikes, though, limiting walks to a roughly average 7.5% clip.
Like Pepiot, Grove had a solid 2022 campaign in a hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League setting. He posted a 4.07 ERA in 59 2/3 Triple-A frames, fanning 26.7% of batters faced against an 8.2% walk percentage. Grove held right-handed batters at the top minor league level to a .213/.266/.368 line over 263 plate appearances. Lefties, on the other hand, teed off at a .279/.344/.541 clip in 192 trips to the dish. It was a similar story at the MLB level. Righties hit .241/.293/.389 in his limited look, while left-handers managed a .275/.333/.522 slash.
Grove doesn’t throw a changeup, relying on a fastball/slider/curveball combination. Prospect evaluators have raised questions about his ability to handle left-handed hitters without a pitch that breaks away from them. That has led to concern about whether he can stick in an MLB rotation long term, though the Dodgers could match him up against right-handed heavy teams like Colorado and the Cubs in the season’s first couple weeks.
Top Prospects
Gavin Stone, 24, not yet on 40-man roster
Stone fell to the fifth round in the 2020 draft. That now looks like a coup, as the Central Arkansas product is a top 100 prospect on lists from Baseball America, FanGraphs, The Athletic and ESPN. He’s now the second-best pitching prospect in the organization (more on that in a minute) after an utterly dominant minor league season. Across three levels, he combined for a 1.92 ERA with an elite 33.9% strikeout rate and serviceable 8.9% walk percentage through 121 2/3 frames. That culminated in six Triple-A outings, in which he allowed only six runs over 23 1/3 innings.
It now seems a matter of when, not if, Stone will make his big league debut this season. Evaluators credit the 6’1″ righty with a mid-90s fastball and one of the best changeups in the minor leagues and suggest he could be a mid-rotation arm in the near future. He doesn’t have a ton of Triple-A experience and isn’t yet on the 40-man, so the most straightforward move would be to send him back to Oklahoma City to open the season. Given his minor league dominance, there’s at least an argument for plugging him in above Pepiot and Grove immediately, even if it’d require a 40-man roster move to do so.
Bobby Miller, 23, not yet on 40-man roster
The Dodgers’ first-round pick in that ’20 draft class, Miller has shot through the minor league ranks and now ranks among the best prospects in the sport. The Louisville product had a 4.45 ERA over 20 outings for Double-A Tulsa last season. That’s not the most impressive mark but it seems the product of an unlucky 62.5% strand rate. Miller struck out an excellent 30.5% of opponents, induced grounders at a quality 48.2% clip, and kept his walks to an 8.1% rate. He earned a late-season bump to Oklahoma City, where he posted elite strikeout and ground-ball marks over four outings.
He’s now almost universally regarded as the organization’s best pitching prospect and a top 50 minor league talent overall. The righty draws unanimous praise for an upper-90s fastball, a pair of power breaking pitches, and an advanced changeup. Miller’s command is still a work in progress but there’s little question the arsenal can play against major league hitters.
Miller doesn’t figure to be an option for the season-opening rotation. Roberts told reporters last week he was being built up slowly to monitor his workload and was unlikely to pitch in a Spring Training game (relayed by Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). He’ll almost certainly be in the majors at some point in 2023 though.
Further Down Depth Chart
Andre Jackson, 26, one option remaining
Jackson has never started a big league game, coming out of the bullpen for all seven of his MLB appearances from 2021-22. The Utah product has worked as a starter in the minors, opening 19 of 21 outings with Oklahoma City last year. He allowed exactly five earned runs per nine innings in Triple-A. Jackson had decent enough strikeout and ground-ball numbers but walked an astronomical 17.2% of opposing hitters.
That’d put him behind Pepiot and Grove on the depth chart. Jackson is on the 40-man roster, though, seemingly giving him a leg up compared to the non-roster invitees in camp. He’s headed into what would be his final option year, so he’ll need to improve his control before long if he’s to earn an extended MLB look in Los Angeles.
Both Covey and Erlin have some big league experience and are in camp as non-roster veterans. The 32-year-old Erlin was hit hard in 77 innings with Oklahoma City last season. Covey, 31, returned stateside after a couple solid years in Taiwan’s top league. Covey, in particular, has gotten out to a good start in camp. He’s struck out eight without issuing a walk over six innings. Still, neither seems likely to leapfrog the younger arms in the organization for a season-opening rotation look.
Nastrini and Knack are both fairly recent college draftees who reached Double-A last season. They’re each among the mid-tier prospects in a strong L.A. system and flashed bat-missing potential with Tulsa. Both pitchers could eventually get an MLB look, though neither figures to be in consideration for a job out of camp. They’re not yet on the 40-man and have yet to reach Triple-A.
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The Dodgers again have a few exciting pitching prospects, two of whom have already gotten a taste of the majors. Pepiot and Grove would accordingly be the safest choices to take the final rotation spot if Gonsolin can’t start the season but they’re not as touted as Miller and Stone. The latter two figure to take the Dodger Stadium mound at some point in 2023, the next in a long line of pitching talent to come through the system.
Dodgers Place David Price On 15-Day Injured List
12:34PM: Price has been officially placed on the 15-day IL and Pepiot was officially recalled.
7:51AM: The Dodgers will place left-hander David Price on the 15-day injured list today, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) following last night’s game. Right-hander Ryan Pepiot will be called up from Triple-A to take Price’s spot on the active roster, and Pepiot is scheduled to work as the bulk pitcher today behind opener Caleb Ferguson.
Price is dealing with inflammation in his left wrist, and received an MRI to fully explore an injury that Roberts said has been nagging Price for the entire season. The injury isn’t considered overly serious, and Price is expected back before the regular season is over. Since Price hasn’t pitched since August 29, his IL placement will be backdated a few days and he could be back by mid-September if he is able to return from the IL when first eligible.
Price has hinted that this could be his final season, and while the lefty is no longer an ace or even a starting pitcher, Price is still effective at age 37. Over 38 1/3 innings out of the Los Angeles bullpen, Price has a 2.58 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, and 5.0% walk rate. He has been particularly effective in the second half of the season, with a 1.13 ERA over 16 frames since the All-Star break.
While Price doesn’t usually pitch in high-leverage situations, ending his career as a relief pitcher would provide a nice bookend to his first MLB season, when the Rays used Price as a key late-game weapon in 2008 and Price helped Tampa Bay reach the World Series. The Dodgers are deep in pitching options, but presumably Price (if healthy) has done enough to merit inclusion on the team’s postseason roster, and to potentially cap off his career with another championship.
Once the Price move is official, the Dodgers will have 10 pitchers on the injured list, with some already known to be out for the season and others battling more minor injuries. Since L.A. enjoys an 18-game lead in the NL West, the team has some flexibility in giving players time off to address nagging injuries and get fully healed for the postseason.
In other Dodgers injury news, Brusdar Graterol is hoping to play catch today or tomorrow as he recovers from right elbow inflammation. Graterol told Bill Plunkett of the Southern California News Group and other reporters that his injury is indeed just inflammation, as revealed by a recent MRI. Graterol was retroactively placed on the 15-day injured list on August 31, just over a week after he returned from missing nearly six weeks on another IL stint due to shoulder inflammation.
Plunkett also reported that Tony Gonsolin was doing some throwing in the outfield yesterday, which is a good sign given the concerning nature of the forearm strain that sent Gonsolin to the 15-day IL earlier this week. The Dodgers were hopeful at the time that Gonsolin’s strain was relatively minor, and that his IL trip was mostly preventative. Roberts said a few days ago that Gonsolin received good results on an MRI, and Gonsolin already throwing is a step towards the All-Star right-hander possibly being able to return in relatively short order.
Moving onto position players, Roberts told Plunkett and company that Gavin Lux will miss a few games after receiving a cortisone shot. Lux has missed time over the last two weeks dealing with neck and upper-back soreness, and the hope is that the cortisone shot will help enough that Lux can avoid the injured list.
Lux has been the Dodgers’ primary second baseman this season, also getting a good chunk of time in left field and some fill-in work at shortstop. The former top prospect has somewhat quietly had a breakout at the plate, hitting .293/.368/.428 with six homers and a league-best seven triples over 418 plate appearances, translating to a 127 wRC+ that is well above the league average. Max Muncy‘s resurgence over the last few weeks gives the Dodgers some cover at second base with Lux at less than 100 percent, but Los Angeles could definitely use Lux healthy for the postseason.
Dodgers Place Max Muncy On 10-Day IL, Select Kevin Pillar
The Dodgers have placed infielder Max Muncy on the 10-day injured list due to left elbow inflammation. Kevin Pillar‘s contract was selected from Triple-A to take Muncy’s spot on the active roster, and Los Angeles moved Tommy Kahnle to the 60-day IL to open up a 40-man place for Pillar. In another move, right-hander Michael Grove was called up to the active roster, while right-hander Ryan Pepiot was optioned to Triple-A.
Muncy knocked his elbow into a wall while chasing a foul ball on Wednesday, and he has missed the Dodgers’ last two games. However, Muncy’s elbow has been an ongoing concern since he partially tore his UCL in the final game of the 2021 regular season. Muncy opted against any type of surgery, but clearly hasn’t been his usual self at the dish, batting only .150/.327/.263 over his first 168 plate appearances.
“We all know he’s been grinding with the arm issue,” manager Dave Roberts told Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times and other reporters on Thursday. Roberts implied at the time that a IL stint would be necessary, saying “I’m going to give him some time off to kind of reset the arm…I don’t know if there’s an aggravation in there. But we just have to kind of temper back a little bit.”
Given the lingering nature of Muncy’s elbow problems, it seems likely that he’ll miss more than just the minimum 10 days, as both the infielder and the Dodgers surely want to make sure he’s properly ready before a return to action. It isn’t known if surgery is being considered as a possibility to correct the issue once and for all, as Muncy said back in March that he was told by doctors that surgery wasn’t necessary.
It is a testament to the Dodgers’ depth and overall quality that L.A. is still dominating the league without much contribution from such key players as Muncy, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, and with several pitchers (including Clayton Kershaw) on the injured list. However, for Los Angeles to capture another World Series title, they’ll surely need some help from some of these names come October.
Muncy has been mostly splitting time between second and third base. Turner and the hot-hitting Edwin Rios can handle third base, while Muncy’s absence could mean more time for Gavin Lux and Hanser Alberto at the keystone. Chris Taylor has been exclusively used as an outfielder this season, but the longtime utilityman figures to factor into the infield picture as well, especially with Pillar now on the roster to provide outfield depth.
A veteran of nine MLB seasons, Pillar hit .231/.277/.415 over 347 PA with the Mets last season, and both sides declined their ends of options on Pillar’s services for the 2023 season. Pillar had wait until after the lockout to find his next contract and had to settle for a minor league deal, but he’ll now receive a $2.5MM guaranteed salary for making the Dodgers’ active roster.
Pillar had two opportunities to opt out of his minors deal since the Dodgers hadn’t yet called him up to the majors, and a third opt-out date was set for June 1. Beyond the contractual details, Pillar was also doing a lot to force the Dodgers’ hand by ripping up Triple-A pitching — the outfielder has hit .315/.412/.622 over 153 PA with Oklahoma City this season. It’s probably safe to assume that Pillar (career 88 wRC+) won’t keep up that kind of production in the big leagues, but the Dodgers only need him to handle part-time outfield duty while they figure out the position player mix.