Diamondbacks Expect Increased Trade Interest In Young Arms
Following their acquisition of Taijuan Walker from the Mariners last week, the Diamondbacks are expecting to receive increased interest in their stable of controllable starters, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). As Rosenthal points out, each of Walker, Robbie Ray, Shelby Miller, Archie Bradley and Braden Shipley is between the ages of 24 and 26 and comes with at least three remaining years of clubs control. Patrick Corbin, meanwhile, is just 27 and has two years of control remaining.
[Related: Arizona Diamondbacks Depth Chart]
The D-backs figure to enter the 2017 season with a rotation consisting of Zack Greinke, Ray, Corbin, Walker and Miller, and it indeed seems not just conceivable but likely that their supply of intriguing young arms would draw interest from rival teams in an offseason where any type of quality starting pitching is in short supply.
Miller, who turned 26 in October, is perhaps the most obvious change-of-scenery candidate following a disastrous first season in Arizona that resulted in a 6.15 ERA across 101 Major League innings. After being acquired in the much-maligned trade that sent Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair to the Braves last winter, Miller pitched poorly enough in 2016 to merit a demotion to the minors. The small silver lining for the D-backs (and for interested teams) is that the demotion delayed Miller’s free agency by a year, so any team picking him up could still control him through arbitration for three more years. Miller is just a season removed from a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 47.7 percent ground-ball rate in 2015 innings (with the Braves), but ownership has already reportedly intervened on one potential trade and may not want to green-light an offseason deal just a year after surrendering so much to acquire him.
Ray, 25, is the most appealing trade candidate of the bunch from my vantage point but could also be the most difficult to surrender. Though he’s already been traded twice in his career and is coming off a lackluster 4.90 ERA in 174 1/3 innings with Arizona this past season, he made several intriguing gains in 2016. Ray’s average fastball velocity trended up to 94.1 mph last year, and he posted a career-best 45.7 percent ground-ball rate. Most impressively, he averaged a hefty 11.3 K/9 that rated second in the Majors among qualified starters. Metrics like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all peg Ray for a mid-3.00s ERA, and he had some poor fortune in terms of balls in play (.352 BABIP) and home-run rate (15.5 HR/FB). Certainly, he needs some work — his control, for instance, could stand to improve — but the makings of a very good young starter are present.
Corbin once looked like a budding front-line starter for the Snakes but underwent Tommy John surgery that cost him all of the 2014 season. He showed promise with a 3.60 ERA in 85 innings upon his return in 2015, but the 2016 campaign was a dismal one. Though he totaled 155 2/3 innings, Corbin recorded just a 5.15 ERA as his strikeout, walk and home run rates all trended in the wrong direction, as did his velocity. If there’s a silver lining on his season, it’s that he not only stayed healthy but also posted a career-best 53.8 percent ground-ball rate.
Bradley and Shipley, as it stands, could be on the outside looking in when it comes to the rotation picture. Each is a 24-year-old former first-round pick (Bradley seventh overall in 2011, Shipley 15th in 2013) that has a bit of MLB experience but has yet to cement himself as a viable rotation option. Bradley struck out more than a batter per inning in 2016 (143 in 141 2/3 frames) but, like Ray, struggled with his control (4.1 BB/9). Like many other D-backs starters, Bradley’s BABIP (.338) was well above the league norm due at least in part to the team’s porous defense. With five years of team control remaining, though, Bradley should pique the interest of any team looking to add long-term rotation help despite the 5.18 ERA he carries through 177 1/3 big league innings.
Shipley, meanwhile, comes with the greatest amount of club control of any of the listed starters. He didn’t reach a full year of service in 2016, so he’d be controllable through at least the 2022 campaign. Shipley posted a 5.27 ERA across 70 innings last year, but his lack of missed bats proved problematic. That’s been a continuing problem for Shipley throughout his pro career, as his K/9 has been moving in the wrong direction as he’s ascended through the minors. Shipley logged a 3.70 ERA with 5.8 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a 46.6 percent grounder rate in a ridiculously hitter-friendly environment with Arizona’s Reno affiliate in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, but he punched out just 5.5 hitters per nine in the Majors against 3.6 BB/9. He wasn’t able to get batters to chase outside the zone at even a league-average rate, and when he did, hitters made contact at a rate that was significantly above the mean rate for the league. Certainly, there’s appeal to a former first-rounder/top 100 prospect that reached the Majors as a 24-year-old, but Shipley likely could use some additional minor league refinement.
Of course, the D-backs needn’t shop any of their young arms around aggressively. All of the pitchers listed here have minor league options remaining and could be sent down to open the 2017 season depending on how things play out in Spring Training. Possessing sufficient, even potentially excessive depth in the rotation is never a bad thing for a team (and the D-backs aren’t exactly at a point of excess given the uncertainties up and down their staff), as injuries are bound to arise over the course of a season. And with the exception of Greinke, the financial motivation to move any of the team’s starters is virtually nonexistent. That each of these pitchers represents somewhat of a buy-low commodity might make it difficult for new GM Mike Hazen and his staff to extract fair value, but the parade of 5.00-ish ERAs delivered by this group shouldn’t suppress interest all that much on the trade market.
Coppolella On Braves’ Offseason Plans, Prospects, Olivera, Kemp
Braves GM John Coppolella took over his club’s Twitter account today to address the organization’s direction. While he expressed disappointment that the win-loss record hasn’t shown much improvement, the focus obviously remains on the future for Atlanta. Still, he continued to suggest that the expectation is for the on-field product to begin improving in the near term … and also left no doubt that he follows Braves fandom rather closely on social media.
Here are some of the key points, with all links to Twitter:
[Related: Braves Depth Chart]
- Coppolella predicts that the Braves will be quite active in free agency, saying that the team has “more money to spend than in the past 10 years.” Atlanta has never been one of the biggest spenders around, so it’s not exactly a lofty bar, but with only $50MM on the books for 2017 (before arbitration raises) there ought to be some added freedom this winter. Coppy adds that he’s interested in making “major [free agent] signings” to bring in “impactful” players, with a focus (whether in free agency or trade) on adding “at least two” starters and bolstering the catching unit. The latter area, at least, is one of some depth on the coming market.
- The upcoming crop of open-market starters, of course, is about as thin as we’ve ever seen. But that remains a need for the Braves, with Coppolella saying he was disappointed in the lack of progress from the club’s young rotation members. He adds that “opportunity time is over in 2017” for those pitchers, who will “have to earn a rotation spot once [the Braves] add free agents.” One still-youthful staff member, Julio Teheran, has turned in an outstanding year. While Coppolella did not address the topic, I’d note that it’ll be interesting to see whether there is any chatter regarding the talented righty, whose stock is firmly on the rise. He has often been mentioned as a trade candidate, but with Atlanta looking to add at the major league level, the time for a deal may have passed.
- There isn’t a general need for arms, Coppolella insisted. In addition to noting the many minor league talents who are in the pipeline, he says that the “bullpen is likely the least area of concern” entering the winter.
- Looking back, Coppolella acknowledges that acquiring Hector Olivera “still haunts me.” That deal obviously did not pan out on or off the field, and Olivera’s contract was sent to the Padres in the deal that netted Matt Kemp. The Braves GM copped to being “shortsighted” in commenting recently on Kemp’s poor conditioning, saying the veteran has been “terrific” in all regards since coming over. As for a trade that has gone in Atlanta’s favor, Coppolella expressed surprise at Shelby Miller‘s struggles with the Diamondbacks and said that as many as twenty teams attempted to acquire him last winter.
- The Braves did not promote young infielder Ozzie Albies to the majors this year because they “didn’t feel Ozzie was ready,” says Coppolella. But he notes that the youngster “will get an opportunity to fight for a [major league] job” this spring despite being passed over. Generally, Coppolella added, the organization expects to “continue to push players and provide opportunities.” He hinted that service time won’t be a factor in determining when the club’s touted minor league assets make it to the bigs.
- With a laundry list of interesting young arms on the farm, Coppolella singled out towering, 22-year-old righty Patrick Weigel, who he says has a “chance to be a frontline starter.” The 2015 seventh-round draft pick has posted 149 2/3 innings of 2.47 ERA ball at the High-A and (briefly) Double-A levels this year, with 9.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9, leading Coppy to name him the most improved minor league pitcher in the organization. The GM cited outfielder Dustin Peterson as the recipient of that honor on the position-player side after his .282/.343/.431 batting line and 12 home runs over 578 plate appearances at Double-A. Peterson came over as part of a group of increasingly interesting prospects in the Justin Upton trade, with lefty Max Fried also drawing praise from the organization’s baseball operations triggerman.
- All said, it promises to be another interesting winter in Atlanta. It’s generally a quiet time right now on the rumor front, but Coppolella says the club is already holding talks on prospective offseason trades. Primary attention seems to be going to the major league roster at present, but Coppolella suggested that he will continue to focus on infusing young talent to the system, writing that the organization “will always try to trade for draft picks” when possible.
West Notes: Doolittle, Jay, Myers, Miller
The Athletics announced the activation of lefty Sean Doolittle, who had been sidelined with a shoulder strain. As MLB.com’s Jane Lee reports, the late-inning southpaw says that his rehab took longer than expected and that he only recently was able to recapture the mechanics and velocity he is accustomed to. Doolittle now hopes the shoulder woes are in the rearview mirror, but his ability to stay healthy over the long haul will remain an important question for Oakland.
Here are a few more notes from out west …
- Padres outfielder Jon Jay is set to begin a rehab assignment tomorrow, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on Twitter. The veteran wasn’t able to return in time to become a trade piece, and the Pads are well out of contention, but he has plenty to play for. The outcome of his upcoming free agency could depend quite a bit on whether he can return to being the solid regular he was before fracturing his forearm on a hit-by-pitch. (In case you missed it, San Diego reportedly has interest in exploring a reunion.)
- Linlooks at the second-half struggles of Padres first baseman Wil Myers. After a big start to the year, Myers has been slumping for about six weeks even though he remains healthy. The 25-year-old hinted that he is battling through the mental and physical grind of a long season, but says he expects to learn and improve from his lull at the plate. It will be interesting to see whether and how Myers’s fall-off will impact the chatter about an extension we heard earlier in the summer.
- Shelby Miller showed promise in his return to the Diamondbacks, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. While he started rough, Miller was able to buckle down and deliver six solid frames. The embattled righty says he ironed out his mechanics in the minors, and that seems to have shown through in his good Triple-A results. He still has a ways to go in re-establishing his trajectory, but Miller worked in the mid-nineties with his fastball and filled up the zone in his first outing back in the majors.
Shelby Miller Demotion Expected To Delay Free Agency
The Diamondbacks have scheduled right-hander Shelby Miller for at least one more Triple-A start, which Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic says will leave the 25-year-old unable to accrue enough days on the active roster this year to reach four full years of MLB service.
Miller is sitting at 3.133 on his service clock at present, says Piecoro. That means he would need to return to the major league roster by Thursday to reach 172 days and move from the 3+ to the 4+ arbitration class. Miller had been on track to qualify for free agency after the 2018 season. Now, it seems, the Diamondbacks will control him for 2019 as well.
The Snakes demoted Miller to Triple-A as he scuffled through an abysmal campaign. He has lasted just 69 1/3 frames in 14 big league starts and has been tagged with a 7.14 ERA on the year. That’s far from what the team expected when it traded a talented trio of players to add him over the winter.
Arizona will still need to tender Miller an arb contract this fall to retain him, of course. Miller is earning $4.35MM this year, his first season of eligibility. He won’t command much of a raise given his struggles, but will still earn a fairly significant salary.
Diamondbacks chief baseball officer Tony La Russa said that the team’s handling of Miller was not tied to service time. “I don’t know if it’s true or not,” La Russa said of the calculation of service days presented by Piecoro.
While Arizona obviously has ample cause to ask Miller to work things out at Triple-A, it is fair to note that he has been much better there. Over his 46 frames, Miller carries a 3.52 ERA and — more importantly — has recorded 10.0 K/9 against just 1.8 BB/9.
D-Backs Nearing Extension With CEO Derrick Hall; Stewart Decision Unlikely Before End Of Season
The Diamondbacks are nearing an eight-year contract extension with president and CEO Derrick Hall, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The new contract will replace Hall’s expiring contract and run through the 2024 season. Hall has been the club’s president since 2006 and CEO since 2008.
While Hall’s fate looks to be sorted out (with the result coming as little surprise), the same can’t be said of chief baseball officer Tony La Russa and GM Dave Stewart, both of whom are currently in limbo as their superiors (Hall included) evaluate what has been a wildly disappointing season for the D-backs. Stewart’s contract is reported to have an option that must be exercised by the end of the month of August, but Hall tells Piecoro that the team will push that decision back a ways. “We’ve decided we’ll go until the end of the season and then we’ll evaluate everything,” said Hall. “It was pretty successful last year, and we know there have been a lot of injuries, a lot of things haven’t gone our way. There’s a lot to think about here.”
In an effort to take some of the heat off of his baseball ops department, Hall stressed that while La Russa and Stewart may be responsible for the day-to-day operations of the club, he plays a role in those decisions by having a say on final approval as well. “I’m obviously just as guilty with approvals or disapprovals and all the meetings I’m a part of,” he said. “I think we all have to look in the mirror right now when it comes to baseball and really turn the page and start to produce.”
Piecoro also asked Hall about a weekend report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, which stated that Hall and owner Ken Kendrick stepped in and vetoed a trade of Shelby Miller to the Marlins and the dismissal of manager Chip Hale. Hall didn’t deny either report, and in reference to Miller said that he didn’t feel this was an instance of ownership being too involved in operations, explaining that about 95 percent of proposed deals receive approval, but there is also a “small percent that we challenge or push back.” Regarding Hale, Hall simply said that as was the case with Stewart, the team plans to see how the remainder of the season plays out before making any kind of final decision. Hale, like Stewart, has an option on his contract for the 2017 season.
The D-backs have limed to a 53-74 record that is currently tied with the Padres for the second-worst in all of Major League Baseball this season. Injuries to the likes of A.J. Pollock, David Peralta, Chris Owings, Zack Greinke and Rubby De La Rosa (among others) have certainly played a significant role in that lackluster performance but have also magnified the poor results from a number of the team’s other recent personnel moves, prompting speculation about the futures of La Russa and Stewart.
Tony La Russa Defends Shelby Miller Trade
A necessary search for quality pitching drove the Diamondbacks’ offseason acquisition of right-hander Shelby Miller, club chief baseball officer Tony La Russa said in defending the swap in comments to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. While the Arizona front office has obviously discussed that highly-scrutinized deal before, its ongoing relevance is heightened by recent rumblings of change in the baseball operations department.
Amidst reports of embarrassing missteps, Arizona’s upper management hasn’t yet committed to retaining La Russa, GM Dave Stewart, or other top baseball ops personnel. And a more recent report says that the ownership group has nixed several significant would-be actions by La Russa and company in recent weeks, suggesting at least some lack of alignment in the organization’s baseball decisionmaking.
The Miller deal, which followed the team’s out-of-nowhere signing of Zack Greinke, is Exhibit A in the detractors’ case against La Russa and Stewart. It is a powerful piece of evidence, because Arizona not only gave up solid and controllable MLB regular — Ender Inciarte — but parted with a quality pitching prospect in Aaron Blair and the just-drafted top overall pick in Dansby Swanson. In return, the D-Backs received a pitcher who didn’t really seem worth that package at the time, and who has gone on to suffer through an unimaginably bad 2016 season.
Because a transaction of that magnitude could end up altering a franchise’s trajectory, its success or failure carries significant weight in assessing front office performance. In that context, La Russa and Stewart have recently defended the swap — among other moves — as pressure mounts. The D-Backs currently hold the second-worst record in the National League, leading only the Braves — who are, of course, the rebuilding organization that sent Miller to Arizona.
NL Notes: Braun, D’Backs, Marlins, Rodney
Here’s the latest from around the National League…
- In an interview with Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link), Brewers GM David Stearns said that his team will continue to listen to other teams about Ryan Braun. This doesn’t represent much of a change from Milwaukee’s pre-deadline stance, as the team wasn’t shopping their slugger though several teams were checking in on his availability. Even if the Brewers did want to actively move Braun, his 23-team no-trade clause is a major obstacle, especially given that Braun may have a particular desire to stay put since his family is expecting a new baby.
- The process behind the Diamondbacks‘ already-infamous trade for Shelby Miller is recapped by Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, as the Snakes were intent on adding another top-caliber arm to pair with Zack Greinke last offseason. Names such as the Marlins‘ Jose Fernandez and the Indians‘ Danny Salazar were discussed but GM Dave Stewart said those clubs were asking for more than the D’Backs eventually gave up to land Miller from the Braves; both teams wanted A.J. Pollock and Miami also wanted Patrick Corbin. Once the Braves moved off Pollock themselves and the D’Backs made it clear that pretty much anyone else (including first overall pick Dansby Swanson) could be had, the trade came together quickly.
- The value of Fernando Rodney’s 2017 team option has risen to $3.5MM due to Rodney reaching various incentive clauses for game played and games finished, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. Rodney’s appearance on Sunday was his 53rd of the season, so he is well on pace to earn another $500K bonus for hitting the 60-game plateau. Today was also his 35th game finished, and Rodney will also earn another $500K if he finishes 40 games and then $500K more for every five finishes thereafter. Though he got a save today, Rodney will likely return to his role as setup man for the Marlins now that A.J. Ramos is back off the DL. Jackson isn’t sure if the Fish will exercise Rodney’s option or buy him out for $400K.
D’Backs Ownership Stopped Shelby Miller Trade With Marlins, Hale Firing
The Diamondbacks and Marlins had worked out a trade that would have sent Shelby Miller to Miami in exchange for three starting pitchers, only for Arizona ownership to shoot down the deal, a Marlins executive tells USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. The two sides had been linked in talks about Miller, with Miami right-handed pitching prospect Luis Castillo reportedly mentioned as a trade chip before Castillo was dealt to San Diego as part of the Marlins’ deal for Andrew Cashner.
As Nightengale writes (semi-facetiously), the reason given by D’Backs ownership was that such a trade “just wouldn’t look good,” considering the stunningly big trade package the Snakes gave up last winter to acquire Miller from the Braves. The same “wouldn’t look good” reasoning also impacted another ownership decision, as D’Backs chief baseball officer Tony La Russa and GM Dave Stewart were considering replacing manager Chip Hale with Triple-A skipper Phil Nevin before being told that a managerial change wouldn’t happen.
Nightengale uses these ownership interventions to argue that La Russa, Stewart and senior VP of baseball operations De Jon Watson shouldn’t be blamed for the Diamondbacks’ struggles this season, nor should the trio be fired after less than two years on the job. The fate of Arizona’s front office is yet to be decided, as 2017 options for Stewart and Watson are up on August 31 and La Russa’s option is up after the season. As Fan Rag Sports’ Jon Heyman noted earlier this week and Nightengale reiterates here, D’Backs upper management is hoping to let August 31 pass without a decision so they can delay their choice until after the season.
Without knowing what exactly the Marlins were offering for Miller, it’s hard to say that ownership necessarily made the wrong move in nixing the trade. Obviously, Miami’s offer wouldn’t have come close to matching Dansby Swanson/Ender Inciarte/Aaron Blair, though the feeling could have been that La Russa and Stewart were selling low on Miller. The three pitchers on Miami’s end of the deal would have almost certainly been prospects, and there wouldn’t have been any blue chip arms in the group given the Marlins’ low-rated farm system.
Hale’s name has been on the hot seat for weeks, and a managerial change would’ve been less surprising than the D’Backs cutting bait on Miller after less than a season. It’s unknown if La Russa and Stewart were specifically planning to fire Hale or if they were still discussing the idea. Hale has a 130-156 record as Arizona’s manager and is is under contract for the 2017 season.
Heyman’s Latest: Yankees, Braun, Miller, O’s, Marlins
In his column for Today’s Knuckleball, Jon Heyman takes a lengthy look at the Yankees‘ rebuilding process, including the numerous deadline deals struck by the club. GM Brian Cashman says that the club would have traded Carlos Beltran to the Red Sox had their offer topped that of the Rangers, but obviously it did not. Per the report, New York was also willing to consider moving Brett Gardner, but “no serious takers” emerged.
Here are some other highlights:
- While the Braves checked in with the Brewers on Ryan Braun before the deadline, talks never progressed — in large part because it didn’t seem worth pursuing given his no-trade clause. As Heyman notes, the six teams that can acquire Braun without his permission are all based upon geographic preference, and it was deemed unlikely that he’d waive his protection for a switch to Atlanta. Braun’s wife is expecting, Heyman notes, and that factor (in conjunction with the no-trade clause) may well explain why trade buzz never picked up on him this summer.
- The Braves also were one of the teams to ask the Diamondbacks about struggling righty Shelby Miller, who famously changed hands between those teams before the season. That deal seemed favorable to the Braves at the time, and looks even better for them now. Arizona was prepared to move Miller, Heyman notes, but never was offered anything close to what was deemed needed to make a deal.
- In August shopping news, the Orioles are looking to add a left-handed reliever, per the report. As Baltimore’s depth chart shows, the club doesn’t have any southpaws in the pen other than ace closer Zach Britton.
- The Marlins are also still looking for pitching this month. Though the team hopes that Wei-Yin Chen can return for the stretch run in September, the team still wants a starter after sending Colin Rea back to the Padres. That move brought back prospect Luis Castillo, who remains a useful trade piece for the club as it pushes hard for the post-season.
- One bullpen piece that is freely available is veteran righty Joe Nathan, who was designated recently by the Cubs. Heyman says that there’s “strong interest” given the solid (albeit quite brief) showing the 41-year-old put on in his brief time in Chicago.
Diamondbacks GM: “Not Moving” Shelby Miller
Asked by Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports about Shelby Miller, Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart responded, “We’re not moving him.” The righty was reportedly available as of last week. A few days ago, Stewart told Nick Piecoro of AZCentral.com, “We’ve had a ton of (interest). My story to them is the same: We haven’t given up on the young man.”
Miller, 25, was a key offseason addition for Arizona. The D’Backs acquired him from the Braves in December for a robust package of Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair, and Ender Inciarte. Miller endured a finger strain in April and an accompanying May DL stint, and never got on track this season. He was optioned to Triple-A in mid-July, after posting a disastrous 7.14 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1.69 HR/9, and 42.8% groundball rate in 69 1/3 big league innings. Miller is under team control through at least 2018 as an arbitration eligible player.