Heyman’s Latest: Miller, Marlins, Cole, Tigers, Agency Changes
Last August, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Diamondbacks and Marlins were in talks regarding a possible Shelby Miller trade that was ultimately vetoed by D-backs owner Ken Kendrick. Roughly nine months later, FanRag’s Jon Heyman adds some more context to the story, noting that the two sides were in talks regarding right-handers Luis Castillo, Jose Urena and Austin Brice were all being discussed as potential pieces for Arizona to acquire, as was left-hander Dillon Peters (not necessarily all four, though Castillo and Urena were likely the centerpieces). One D-backs source tells Heyman the trade was never close, though Heyman cites others who agreed with Nightengale’s report, stating that Kendrick did indeed veto the deal when it was close to fruition. Miller, of course, remained with the D-backs and looked better in 2017 than he did in 2016 before suffering a torn UCL and undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Heyman’s weekly American League and National League Notes columns reveal a few more interesting hot stove items…
- Despite the fact that multiple reports suggest the bidding price for the Marlins is around $1.3 billion, some have suggested to Heyman that the team’s lack of revenue and significant financial commitments to Giancarlo Stanton, Wei-Yin Chen, Martin Prado and others will ultimately lower the sale price after a full financial examination. Heyman adds that despite prior reports, he’s been told that Alex Rodriguez was never actually offered a spot in the Tagg Romney/Tom Glavine group that is vying to purchase the Marlins. Whether A-Rod was made an offer or not, the key takeaway is that it appears he won’t be involved in the sale.
- Rival executives believe that Pirates ace Gerrit Cole could land on the trade market this summer, per Heyman. The former No. 1 overall pick would make for an extremely interesting addition to the summer trade market, though Bucs certainly needn’t feel compelled to trade him. Cole is controlled through the 2019 season and is earning a perfectly reasonable $3.8MM this season (though that number will spike in his second trip through arbitration this winter). Nonetheless, with two and a half years of club control left, Cole would fetch a significant haul of young talent if he were actually made available. It seems quite likely that the Bucs will listen on Andrew McCutchen and Tony Watson this summer (Watson, like Mark Melancon last year, is a pending free agent), but Cole would have the most significant value of the bunch.
- Even if a closer upgrade were available to the Tigers at the moment, they don’t have the money to make an addition (or at least wouldn’t be willing to spend it). Detroit recently demoted Francisco Rodriguez from the ninth inning in favor of Justin Wilson following a brutal start to the season for K-Rod, and their bullpen has once again been a weak spot. Heyman notes that GM Al Avila at one point made a trip to Triple-A Toledo and “read the riot act” to right-hander Bruce Rondon, who has responded by dropping 15 pounds. Rondon was once viewed as a potential closer of the future, but he’s yet to establish himself and has had issues with his conditioning and effort level.
- Heyman also reports a pair of agency changes, noting that Red Sox top prospect Rafael Devers is now a client of Rep 1 Baseball, while Dodgers top prospect Yadier Alvarez is now repped by Wasserman. Neither has made his MLB debut yet, though both are considered among the game’s top 25 to 50 prospects and could theoretically surface in the Majors within the next calendar year or so (Devers, who is already in Double-A, appears closer than Alvarez, who has just 18 innings in High-A). Both changes are now reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains representation info on roughly more than 2,500 Major League and Minor League players. If you see any inaccuracies or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
Shelby Miller To Have Tommy John Surgery
SATURDAY: Miller has, in fact, decided to undergo Tommy John surgery, writes FanRag’s Tommy Stokke. Details of the surgery are unclear, but he’ll miss the rest of 2017 and quite likely a portion of the 2018 season while he recovers.
THURSDAY: Diamondbacks right-hander Shelby Miller has been diagnosed with flexor strain and a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament, Miller himself tells reporters (Twitter links via FanRag’s Tommy Stokke). Miller is considering his options, including Tommy John surgery, and will make a decision sooner rather than later.
The 26-year-old Miller exited his most recent start due to forearm tightness and was quickly placed on the 10-day disabled list, though this new diagnosis guarantees that he’ll miss considerably more time than that — likely the remainder of the 2017 season unless he pursues a non-surgical route such as a platelet-rich plasma injection or stem cell treatment (neither of which would guarantee that he’d ultimately avoid surgery).
The news comes as a significant blow to the D-backs after Miller showed encouraging signs early in the season. After a dreadful first year in Arizona (6.15 ERA, 6.2 K/9, 3.8 BB/9), Miller was showing improved velocity and missing more bats early in the 2017 season. Through his first three outings, Miller logged a 3.50 ERA with a 17-to-7 K/BB ratio and a 48 percent ground-ball rate. His most recent outing, however, back on April 23, lasted just four innings as Miller issued five walks and saw his average velocity dip.
[Related: Arizona Diamondbacks Depth Chart]
With Miller out for a significant time regardless of his ultimate treatment option, the D-backs will have a vacancy in their rotation. Zack Greinke, Patrick Corbin, Robbie Ray and Taijuan Walker are presently occupying the top four slots, and right-hander Zack Godley was recalled to make a spot start yesterday (though he’s already been optioned out).
In addition to Godley, right-hander Braden Shipley (a former first-round pick that’s currently in Triple-A and made his MLB debut in 2016) and right-hander Archie Bradley could be candidates to join the rotation. Bradley has been lights out in a relief role early this season, though GM Mike Hazen very recently told the Arizona Repbulic’s Nick Piecoro that the organization still views Bradley as a starter in the long run.
Shelby Miller Receiving Third Opinion From Dr. James Andrews
April 26: Miller’s MRI is being sent to Dr. James Andrews for a third opinion, writes MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert. Miller, according to Gilbert, was asked directly if the first two readings of his MRI results showed a torn ulnar collateral ligament.
“They see something in there,” Miller said to reporters. “They haven’t given me specifics yet, exactly what it is or how we’re going to handle it or what we’re going to do to fix it.”
Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic spoke to D-backs manager Torey Lovullo about the impending third opinion, though Lovullo downplayed the ominous nature of that development.
“It’s part of the plan that we had talked about all along where we were going to have this group look at it and come together and get as much information as we possibly could, and pass it along to Shelby and figure out what the best game plan is,” Lovullo told McManaman.
April 24, 6:50pm: Miller is slated to visit orthopedic surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache for a second opinion, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic tweets.
4:36pm: As expected, the Diamondbacks have moved righty Shelby Miller to the 10-day with forearm tightness, per a club announcement. He was forced out of his start yesterday with an apparent injury, prompting obvious concern from within the organization.
[RELATED: Updated Diamondbacks Depth Chart]
For the time being, reliever Silvino Bracho will take the open roster spot. It’s not immediately clear how the club will fill the gap in its rotation, though it seems reasonable to think that righty Archie Bradley could get a shot. The former top prospect has thrived thus far in a bullpen role.
There’s still no word on a diagnosis for Miller, who entered the year looking to engineer a turnaround following a disastrous debut season in Arizona. Through 22 innings over four starts, he had worked to a 4.09 ERA with 8.2 K/9 but also 4.9 BB/9 while sitting around a career-best 95 mph with his fastball.
All things considered, those numbers provided both cause for optimism and reason for wariness. The hope remains that the 26-year-old has avoided a significant injury, so that both Miller and the team have the chance to find out whether he’s capable of making a full rebound.
NL Notes: D-backs, Mets, Phillies, Nats
The Diamondbacks could be in for bad news regarding right-hander Shelby Miller, who, as Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com tweets, exited his start Sunday with forearm tightness. Arizona is scheduling an MRI for Miller, who lasted four-plus innings and allowed three earned runs in a loss to the Dodgers. Manager Torey Lovullo is trying to be optimistic, notes Bloom, but Steve Gilbert of MLB.com observes (on Twitter) that the situation is “not good.” Forearm tightness often portends Tommy John surgery, which would be the biggest setback yet in Miller’s rocky tenure with the Diamondbacks. The club’s previous regime drew seemingly endless criticism for sending a Dansby Swanson– and Ender Inciarte-led package to the Braves for Miller two winters ago. General manager Dave Stewart and senior vice president of baseball operations De Jon Watson lost their jobs last fall after Miller struggled through a 2016 to forget, pitching to a 6.15 ERA in 101 major league innings and enduring a demotion to the minor leagues. Thanks in part to improved velocity, though, Miller has fared respectably this year with a 4.09 ERA and 3.29 FIP in 22 frames.
More from the National League:
- With an .095/.186/.127 batting line in 70 plate appearances, Mets infielder Jose Reyes has been among the majors’ worst players this year. Nevertheless, the Mets aren’t considering releasing the 33-year-old, according to Newsday’s Marc Carig, who casts doubt on the possibility of the team cutting him even if his performance doesn’t improve soon. Reyes makes a minimum salary and is a speedy switch-hitter who can play shortstop, all of which are facts that work in his favor, Carig writes. While the Mets have an elite shortstop prospect in Amed Rosario, who has slashed .355/.382/.353 in 55 PAs this season, a promotion for him isn’t imminent, sources told Carig. The Mets don’t want to rush either the 21-year-old Rosario or first base prospect Dominic Smith (also 21) to the majors.
- Phillies left fielder Howie Kendrick‘s previously reported abdominal strain is actually an oblique strain, one that’s likely to keep him out until “sometime in the early to mid part of May,” GM Matt Klentak informed Ryan Lawrence of PhillyVoice. With Kendrick unavailable for a while, Klentak acquired infielder/outfielder Ty Kelly from the Blue Jays on Saturday. It turns out the Klentak-led Phillies had Kelly on their radar in the past. “Kelly is a guy who was on waivers twice in the last few months, and both times that he was passing through waivers we were intrigued by him and would have liked to have placed a claim but our roster was in a position where he couldn’t do it,” Klentak said. “But now with the ability to transfer (Clay) Buchholz to the (60-day DL) and free up a spot, we were able to acquire him.” Aaron Altherr, not Kelly, will see the majority of time in left while Kendrick’s out, Lawrence notes.
- The Nationals will place righty Stephen Strasburg on the paternity leave list Monday, meaning he’ll miss his scheduled start Tuesday in Colorado, reports Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. Washington is likely to recall Jacob Turner to fill Strasburg’s void for a start, while the latter will return in time to take the mound either Friday or Saturday.
West Notes: Diamondbacks, Angels, Rockies
Diamondbacks right-hander Archie Bradley has worked solely as a starter at all three minor league levels and the majors, but the team is considering moving him to the bullpen, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The 24-year-old is open to making the switch. “With the way I’m throwing the baseball right now, the way I feel, the way the ball is coming out, I’m comfortable in any role, in any capacity,” Bradley said. “Just put me on this team.” Bradley, whom Baseball America once regarded as a top 10 prospect, made 26 starts for the D-backs last year and managed a 5.02 ERA, 9.08 K/9, 4.26 BB/9 and a 45.1 percent ground-ball rate over 141 2/3 innings. Now, he’s behind Zack Greinke, Taijuan Walker, Robbie Ray, Shelby Miller and Patrick Corbin in Arizona’s rotation pecking order, per Piecoro.
More on Arizona and two other teams in the majors’ West divisions:
- Miller, who endured a nightmarish, well-publicized 2016 with the Diamondbacks, continued to flash high velocity Wednesday, according to Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com. Miller’s four-seam fastball sat between 93 mph and 96 mph (and touched 97 mph), and “the industry is intrigued” by the improved stuff he has shown this spring, relays Castrovince. D-backs manager Torey Lovullo thinks the righty is “ready to do some special things this year,” while Miller says he’s “just trying to have a positive outlook on everything” and not dwell on last season.
- Angels first baseman Luis Valbuena left the team’s game early on Wednesday as a result of right hamstring tightness, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. While the severity is unknown, it’s worth noting that Valbuena missed a large chunk of 2016 with a right hamstring injury and underwent season-ending surgery in August. The Angels will turn to C.J. Cron as their primary first baseman if they lose Valbuena, who’s entering the first season of a two-year, $15MM deal.
- Rockies left-hander Chris Rusin had been vying for one of their available rotation spots before suffering an oblique injury March 3. Rusin returned to throwing on Wednesday, in the form of a 25-pitch bullpen session, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. The 30-year-old hopes to return by Opening Day, but he no longer has a chance to earn a starting job. The Rockies will choose two of Antonio Senzatela, Jeff Hoffman, German Marquez, Harrison Musgrave and Kyle Freeland to fill out their rotation behind Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson and Tyler Chatwood.
Make-Or-Break Year: Shelby Miller
MLBTR is rebooting its “make or break year” series, in which we analyze players who enter the season with up-and-down track records but also an opportunity to stake a claim to significant future earnings.
Relative to expectations, few major leaguers are coming off poorer seasons than Diamondbacks right-hander Shelby Miller, whose first year in Arizona couldn’t have gone much worse. Miller had been a quality starter with the Cardinals and Braves over the three prior seasons, but the Diamondbacks’ decision to send a haul to Atlanta for him in December 2015 was universally panned from the get-go.
Clearly regarding Miller as an ace, the D-backs’ front office parted with two well-regarded prospects, shortstop Dansby Swanson (the No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft) and righty Aaron Blair, as well as highly valuable center fielder Ender Inciarte to land him. That choice ultimately helped cost Diamondbacks general manager Dave Stewart and senior vice president of baseball operations De Jon Watson their jobs this past offseason, which came on the heels of dreadful performances from Miller and the 69-win team the executives helped build.
In a year that included a stint on the disabled list, a midsummer demotion to Triple-A and nearly another trade, Miller posted career worsts in ERA (6.15), K/9 (6.24), BB/9 (3.74) and swinging-strike percentage (7.0) across 101 innings. On Atlanta’s end, Blair endured an even worse 70 frames in his first taste of big league action, but Swanson impressed in his 145-plate appearance debut and figures to serve as their long-term answer at short. The defensively adept Inciarte, meanwhile, played well enough to land a lucrative contract extension.
While the trade is never going to turn into a positive for the Arizona organization, it’s possible Miller will revert to being a valuable contributor. He’s still only 26, after all, and not far removed from the aforementioned 2013-15 stretch that saw him register a terrific 3.27 ERA over 561 2/3 innings, albeit with so-so strikeout and walk rates (7.48 and 3.25 per nine) and a below-average ground-ball percentage (42.3). He’ll also have help from behind the plate, with new GM Mike Hazen having ditched a poor pitch-framing catcher (Welington Castillo) in favor of a good one (Jeff Mathis) during the offseason. Moreover, Hazen added ex-major league hurlers Dan Haren and Burke Badenhop (a former MLBTR contributor) to the front office, and those two will attempt to aid Miller and the team’s other pitchers in their new roles.
Miller revealed last month that attempting to live up to the trade hindered him last season, and he told FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal that he’s trying to “almost go back to being a Little Leaguer and have fun.” It’s only spring, granted, but it appears that approach is working. In his most recent outing on Thursday, Miller hit 99 mph on the radar gun and shut down the Cubs over three innings of one-hit ball, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.
Diamondbacks pitching coach Mike Butcher then raved about Miller to Piecoro on Sunday, saying (via Twitter): “Mentally, he’s in a great place. He’s where he needs to be. He just looks really, really good right now. And he’s confident. He’s on a mission, man.”
Whether Miller’s encouraging spring carries over into the regular season will obviously affect his earning power for years to come. Thanks to his minor league demotion last season, Miller didn’t accrue a year of big league service time, meaning he could be under Arizona’s control through the 2019 campaign. Miller will earn $4.7MM this year after the Diamondbacks defeated him in arbitration during the offseason, and he’ll be a prime non-tender candidate next winter if he fails to rebound in 2017. On the other hand, flashing something resembling the form he showed prior to 2016 would net Miller a raise in arbitration or even a contract extension. It’s fair to say, then, that Miller’s in for a make-or-break year.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Diamondbacks Notes: Miller, Sawdaye, Segura
Former Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart recently expressed regret for trading a package headlined by Dansby Swanson for Shelby Miller. But the Snakes control Miller for three more years, and Miller is hoping to redeem himself this season, as FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal writes. Miller says he struggled with the pressure of being the marquee player in a high-profile trade. “I wasn’t using my stuff like I did in the years before. I wasn’t as confident in my pitches as I should have been. I really didn’t throw any sinkers. My cutter wasn’t good,” he says. Now, he says, he’s trying to “almost go back to being a Little Leaguer and have fun.” Here’s more out of Arizona.
- The Diamondbacks’ new braintrust contains a number of former employees of the Red Sox organization, including GM Mike Hazen, manager Torey Lovullo, and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye and Jared Porter. The new D’backs front office wants to emulate the Red Sox’ in some respects, Sawdaye tells David Laurila of FanGraphs. “We’re trying to build a culture similar to the one we were used to in Boston,” Sawdaye says. “We want people to want to come to work. We want them to be open with each other and communicate well. A lot of good decisions are made that way — in conjunction with other’s opinions. … We’ve worked on implementing that. It’s something that was maybe not here in the past, or at least it was a little different.” In the same interview, Sawdaye also describes the way the front office has reshaped the Diamondbacks’ analytics and scouting departments.
- Interestingly, Sawdaye notes that one factor in the Diamondbacks’ big November trade involving Jean Segura and Taijuan Walker this offseason was that the D’backs’ front office was new and therefore didn’t directly experience Segura’s success last season. “[I]n some ways, not being here last year was probably a little helpful,” says Sawdaye. “[H]aving not been here to see how good Segura was, day in and day out, took any bias out. We were able to be more objective with our assessment.”
Diamondbacks Win Arbitration Hearing Against Shelby Miller
The Diamondbacks have won their arbitration hearing against right-hander Shelby Miller, tweets Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. As can be seen in MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker, Miller had filed for a $5.1MM salary, with the D-backs countering at $4.7MM. He’ll now earn the lesser of those two amounts in 2017 after earning $4.35MM last season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected a $4.9MM salary for Miller this season.
The 26-year-old Miller struggled through a nightmarish season in his debut campaign with the Diamondbacks, pitching to a 6.15 earned run average in 101 innings of work. The former Cardinals/Braves righty saw his K/9, BB/9 and ground-ball rates all trend in the wrong direction as he also became increasingly susceptible to home runs in his new hitter-friendly environs. Beyond that, Miller suffered a finger injury that landed him on the disabled list for about a month, and he was also demoted to Triple-A for roughly six weeks due to his struggles.
That demotion not only cost Miller in arbitration, but it delayed his free agency by a year. Miller finished the 2016 campaign six days shy of a full season of service, meaning he’ll still be controllable for another three years (through 2019). He’ll be eligible for arbitration in each of the upcoming offseasons until that juncture, though he’ll need to rebound in 2017 to avoid becoming a non-tender candidate next December.
Despite Miller’s 2016 struggles, he’ll presumably have every opportunity to do just that in 2017, though. The right-hander is only one season removed from a 3.02 ERA over the life of 205 innings with the Braves, after all, and has been a largely effective pitcher at the big league level throughout his career since debuting with St. Louis back in 2012.
Miller figures to be slotted into the rotation alongside Zack Greinke, Patrick Corbin, Robbie Ray and newcomer Taijuan Walker in 2017, and while he’ll be working with the same pitching coach (Mike Butcher), a new D-backs front office will be charged with finding the root of his downturn in performance.
With Miller’s case now taken care of, Walker remains the only unresolved arbitration case on the D-backs’ plate.
2017 Arbitration Filing Numbers
MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.
After a busy day of dealmaking, 152 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 36 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint.
We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining — those where the player files for at least $4.5MM — in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:
- Danny Duffy, Royals: $8MM versus $7.25MM (Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star, via Twitter)
- Tony Watson, Pirates: $6MM versus $5.6MM (Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, via Twitter)
- Pedro Strop, Cubs: $6MM versus $4.6MM (Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune, via Twitter)
- Drew Pomeranz, Red Sox: $5.7MM versus $3.6MM (Heyman, via Twitter)
- Kelvin Herrera, Royals: $5.6MM versus $5.05MM (Heyman, via Twitter)
- Shelby Miller, Diamondbacks: $5.1MM versus $4.7MM (Heyman, via Twitter)
- Khris Davis, Athletics: $5MM versus $4.65MM (Heyman, via Twitter)
- Dellin Betances, Yankees: $5MM versus $3MM (Heyman, via Twitter)
Diamondbacks Willing To Listen On Starters
Arizona’s recent acquisition of Taijuan Walker gave the team quite a bit of depth in the rotation, and Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that the D-backs have shown a willingness to listen to offers on their starters during this week’s Winter Meetings. Per Piecoro, the Diamondbacks are most open to moving left-hander Patrick Corbin and right-hander Shelby Miller. Elsewhere in the rotation, the Diamondbacks have Walker, Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray, with young right-handers Braden Shipley and Archie Bradley behind them. The asking price on both starters has been lofty, Piecoro adds.
Miller is still young, as he’ll pitch next season at the age of 26, but his first season in Arizona was an enormous struggle, as he posted a 6.15 ERA and saw each of his K/9 rate (6.4), BB/9 rate (3.8), ground-ball rate (41.9 percent) and average fastball velocity (93 mph) trend in the wrong direction. Miller’s struggles led to a Triple-A demotion that would’ve seemed unfathomable on Opening Day, and he also spent time on the disabled list with a sprained index finger on his pitching hand.
While all of those red flags are cause for concern, Miller’s age and the fact that he’s just a season removed from 200+ innings with a 3.02 ERA could certainly make him an intriguing rebound candidate for teams on the hunt for pitching help. Furthermore, the demotion to the minors delayed his free agency by a season, so Miller is still controllable for three years before he’ll hit the open market. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn $4.9MM next year.
Corbin, 27, broke out for the D-backs in 2013 when he posted a 3.41 ERA in 208 1/3 innings with 7.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 46.7 percent ground-ball rate. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2014 campaign, but Corbin looked similarly encouraging in a half season when he returned in 2015, totaling 85 innings with a 3.60 ERA, a higher strikeout rate (8.3 K/9) and a lower walk rate (1.8 BB/9). Like most of Arizona’s pitchers, though, Corbin found the 2016 season challenging and struggled to a 5.15 ERA in 155 2/3 innings. His walk rate spiked (3.8 BB/9), and though his ground-ball rate increased, Corbin struggled to strand runners and found himself increasingly susceptible to home runs. With two years of team control and an affordable $4.2MM arbitration projection from Swartz, Corbin makes financial sense for plenty of teams.
It’s not entirely clear exactly how high Arizona’s asking price is, though one exec speculated to Piecoro that the team might be seeking a potential starting catcher. Piecoro cites multiple sources in reporting that Red Sox GM Mike Hazen and his staff checked in with their former Red Sox colleagues on the availability of Blake Swihart and Christian Vazquez — not necessarily in connection to Miller or Corbin — so teams with readily available catching help could line up as potential trade partners.