Yuli Gurriel

It’s anyone’s guess what free agency will look like when we get there at the end of the 2020 season. Odds are, it won’t be particularly lucrative for older first basemen. But Astros first bagger Yuli Gurriel is among the top players available and could draw wide interest if he’s able to repeat his productive 2019 effort.

To the extent Gurriel is pondering his future, he’s thinking more about where he’ll be than how much he’ll make. If he gets his way, Gurriel told reporters including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter), he’ll return to the Houston organization.

This is actually the fourth anniversary of the ’Stros announcement of their five-year, $47.5MM deal with Gurriel. The long-time Cuban star was considered a clear MLB talent, though there were questions about how productive he’d be at a relatively advanced age.

There have been a few ups and downs, but Gurriel has generally provided strong offensive output. He was at his best in 2019, when he launched 31 home runs and slashed .298/.343/.541 in 612 plate appearances.

Gurriel could have opted into arbitration this past offseason, but instead negotiated a $300K boost over and above the $8MM salary he was already promised. His contract still provides for termination at the end of the 2020 season, thus preventing the Astros from retaining him through arbitration.

It remains to be seen if the Houston club will share Gurriel’s interest in a reunion. Cost efficiency will surely be a primary consideration for the data-driven club, which will be looking to account for the departure of numerous big bats. We haven’t had any opportunity to see the roster-building proclivities of new GM James Click. The former Rays exec certainly came up in a culture that rewarded creative tinkering over big splashes.

3:26pm: Gurriel negotiated an additional $300K on top of the $8MM that was originally guaranteed, per Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com (via Twitter).

The new contract is structured as a straight one-year pact, although that doesn’t come with a lesser tax hit as one might think; a person familiar with the contract tells MLBTR that for luxury tax purposes, the termination of the original contract comes with a fee that amounts to an “upcharge” — the size of which covers the gap between his new $8.3MM salary and his previous $9.5MM luxury hit.

The new arrangement provides Gurriel with a slight boost in salary while avoiding any possibility of a contentious hearing that might’ve stemmed from opting into arbitration. The clause stipulating that Gurriel become a free agent at the end of the contract and his previous awards bonus package all carry over to the new deal. He’ll be a free agent next winter.

2:41pm: Yuli Gurriel’s five-year, $47.5MM contract with the Astros affords him the opportunity to opt into MLB’s arbitration system once eligible. But he’ll forgo that right and play out the 2020 season on the original $8MM salary dictated by the contract, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

Although Gurriel will have only four-plus years of service time when his contract expires at the conclusion of the 2020 season — as opposed to the six years typically required to become a free agent — he’ll nevertheless head to the open market next winter. Gurriel’s contract stipulates that he be released by the Astros upon completion of the deal at the end of the 2020 season, thus allowing him an opportunity to once again test free agency.

One of the premier players in Cuba throughout the 2000s, Gurriel left his home country in early 2016 alongside his younger brother, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Both have since realized their dream of playing in the Majors. The elder Gurriel has remained a productive hitter into his mid-30s and, in 2019, turned in the best season of his career at the plate. In 612 plate appearances as Houston’s primary first baseman, he slashed .298/.343/.541 with 31 home runs, 40 doubles and a pair of triples.

Astros first baseman Yuli Gurriel is undergoing surgery today to remove the hook of his left hamate bone, skipper A.J. Hinch told reporters including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (Twitter link).

Houston GM Jeff Luhnow says the team expects to be without Gurriel for about five to six weeks, per Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (Twitter links). Clearly, then, the rehab period will delay Gurriel’s start to the 2018 season. In this case, says Luhnow, it was a years-old injury that only just became symptomatic.

While injuries to the hamate — a hand bone near the wrist — are common for hitters, that doesn’t mean they aren’t reasonably significant. Those interested in learning more should check out this detailed examination of the subject from Michael Jong of SB Nation.

That limited recovery time is obviously promising, though hamate injuries have a reputation for sapping a hitter’s power upon his return to action. This interesting look from of SB Nation’s Stuart Wallace suggests, though, that any shorter-term loss of pop does not generally turn into a long-term impediment.

For the ’Stros, it’s perhaps at least preferable for the injury to occur now rather than during the season. Gurriel will still need to serve a five-game suspension, though the injury situation may allow the team to manage that more easily.

Regardless of the specifics, Houston will have to create a fill-in plan. An open-market option seems unlikely with so many internal possibilities. Marwin Gonzalez could step in at first, with the team also giving some opportunities to Tyler White, A.J. Reed, or J.D. Davis.

Though clearly the preference would be for the 33-year-old Gurriel to pick up where he left off in 2017, the Astros likely won’t mind the idea of getting a longer look at some of those players. And any hit to the team’s expectations will be minimal. While Gurriel produced a strong .299/.332/.486 slash line with 18 home runs last year, he’s not exactly a top-end hitter as a first baseman. (A third bagger by trade, Gurriel has been pushed to the other corner by Alex Bregman.)