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Sherman On Cardinals, Posting System, Headley

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While there is a common thinking that a team can never have "too much pitching," Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Cardinals may actually be able to boast that luxury. The team's incredible wealth of young, cost-controlled arms sets them up to be as aggressive as they'd like in addressing holes this offseason, opines Sherman, including shortstop and center field. The Cardinals likely have the young pieces to deal to acquire a marquee player like Troy Tulowitzki or a lesser, but strong option like J.J. Hardy. Their stock of young talent would even make the loss of a draft pick more palatable should they decide to be bold in free agency, as they were when they signed Matt Holliday to his seven-year deal. More from Sherman…

  • In a second piece, Sherman reports that Major League Baseball and Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball are nearing an agreement on alterations to the posting system for Japanese players. Two sources told Sherman that MLB and NPB are hoping to have an agreement in place by Nov. 1 (this coming Friday). He adds that one scenario he's heard would allow the posted player to select one of the three highest bidders and negotiate solely with that club — a scenario suggested as a possibility last month by Newsday.
  • From that same article, Sherman reports that the Padres recently completed their organizational meetings and feel that they will retain Chase Headley rather than trade him prior to his walk year. While they will still listen to offer on their switch-hitting third baseman, a trade doesn't seem likely.
  • Padres officials that spoke with Sherman said the team doesn't feel the Yankees are a potential fit as a trade partner for Headley. San Diego wants to win now and would only deal Headley if the return included cost-effective players that are ready for the Majors or close to it. As Sherman points out, the Yankees' farm system doesn't include many players that fit that bill.

NL West Notes: Dodgers, Belisle, Crain, Giants

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The MLBTR staff extends our condolences to the friends and family of NBA Hall-of-Fame player and coach Bill Sharman, who passed away today at age 87.  Sharman is best known for his legendary basketball career but he also played in the Dodgers' minor system from 1950-55, doing well enough to earn a late-season callup in 1951.  Sharman was a so-called "phantom ballplayer" (a player who spends time on a Major League roster but didn't actually appear in a game) yet his status afforded him a unique spot in baseball history.  The entire Dodgers bench was ejected for arguing a call on September 27, 1951, thus making Sharman the only player to ever be ejected from a Major League game without appearing in one.

Here are some items from around the NL West, starting with Sharman's old team…

  • J.P. Howell and Nick Punto are the only two of the Dodgers' free agents who Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles predicts will be back with the team next season.  Saxon also predicts the Dodgers will decline Mark Ellis' $5.75MM club option and their side of Chris Capuano's $8MM mutual option.
  • Letting that mostly veteran free agent group go is one of Saxon's five ways the Dodgers can reach their stated goal of getting younger in 2014.  Other methods include trading Andre Ethier and acquiring David Price and Elvis Andrus.
  • The Rockies will explore signing Jesse Crain if he's healthy and will look to re-sign Matt Belisle to a longer-term deal, Troy Renck of the Denver Post writes.  Colorado has a $4.25MM option on Belisle for 2014 but Renck says the team will look to lower Belisle's base salary for next season in as part of a new contract.
  • Renck also outlines several other Rockies offseason needs and notes that while they couldn't manage to sign Cuban first baseman Jose Dariel Abreu, the attempt at least showed that the club is trying and is willing to spend this winter.
  • Also from Renck (via Twitter), he is "fascinated" by the Nationals' reported hiring of Matt Williams and notes that the Rockies came close to hiring Williams as manager last year before going with Walt Weiss.
  • Even before their offseason moves have really begun, the Rockies and Giants are two of three teams projected by ESPN's Jared Cross (Insider subscription required) to have the best chance of improving by at least 20 wins in 2014.  Cross also suggests a pair of free agents who could help the two clubs.
  • A number of Padres topics are explored by Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune during a live chat with readers, including whether the Angels' Mark Trumbo would be a realistic trade option for the Friars as they look to add power to their lineup.
  • USA Today's Bob Nightengale tweets that Dave Duncan is a "perfect fit" as the Diamondbacks' pitching coach and that we should "keep an eye on" him as a candidate for the job.  Duncan took a leave of absence from the Cardinals in 2012 and recently said that he isn't interested in serving as a pitching coach again.
  • In other NL West news from earlier today, the Giants officially announced Tim Lincecum's new contract….Lincecum's feelings about re-signing are included as part of a collection of Giants notes….the Padres designated southpaws Colt Hynes and Tommy Layne for assignment….MLBTR's Steve Adams wrote a Free Agent Profile of Dodgers reliever Brian Wilson.

Padres Designate Tommy Layne, Colt Hynes For Assignment

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The Padres announced on Twitter that they have designated left-handers Tommy Layne and Colt Hynes for assignment in order to clear 40-man roster spots for right-hander Joe Wieland and left-hander Cory Luebke, each of whom has been reinstated from the 60-day disabled list.

Layne, who turns 29 next week, pitched 8 2/3 innings of 2.08 ERA ball for the Padres in his second big league stint this season. The St. Louis native has a 4.50 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 704 career minor league innings between the Padres and Diamondbacks (the team that originally drafted him). He was acquired by the Padres from the D-Backs for cash considerations early in the 2012 season.

The 28-year-old Hynes made his big league debut in 2013, but it didn't go as he'd hoped. Hynes allowed 17 runs in 17 innings for the Friars, striking out 13 and walking nine. He was significantly better for Triple-A Tucson, where he posted a sparkling 1.80 ERA with an eye-popping 42-to-2 K/BB ratio in 35 innings of work.

Both Luebke, 28, and Wieland, 23, looked to be establishing themselves as mainstays in the Padres' rotation prior to 2012 Tommy John surgery. Neither was able to make it back to the big leagues in 2013, but both figure to factor into the team's rotation in 2014. Luebke is especially likely, as GM Josh Byrnes rewarded his stellar 2011 efforts with a four-year, $12MM extension shortly before Opening Day in 2012.

New York Notes: Santana, Murphy, Headley

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Here's a look at the latest on the Mets and Yankees..

  • The Mets and Johan Santana are very likely to part ways this winter but team insiders say that the door is open a sliver of a crack for a return, writes Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.  When Martino suggested to one team source that the Mets would definitely cut bait with the left-hander, the person said, “that’s probably fair, but it’s premature to say never.”
  • A source told Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com not to expect multi-year deals this offseason for notable players under the Mets' control.  The Mets' best candidates for a deal like Jonathon Niese's five-year, $25.5MM pact from last offseason would be the arbitration-eligible Daniel Murphy, Dillon Gee, and Bobby Parnell.
  • Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com asks if the Yankees should make a play for Chase Headley this winter.  The Padres third baseman could be moved for the right package, but a baseball official familiar with the team's thinking says they'll need a "compelling offer" and the Bombers don't really have the necessary talent in their farm system to do that.
  • Mets shortstop Ruben Tejada has returned to The Legacy Agency as a client after spending time with Praver/Shapiro, tweets Liz Mullen of Sports Business Journal.  You can keep track of everyone's representation with the MLBTR Agency Database.

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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Injuries hurt the Padres in 2013, but that only tells part of the story.  The Padres have some work to do in order to keep up in the competitive NL West.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)

Free Agents

There have been non-stop questions about Chase Headley's future in San Diego for the last year but it seems like the Padres will come up with an answer, one way or another, this offseason.  They could put the rumors to rest with a contract extension for their star or trade him at a time when the third base free agent market is thin.  The Yankees have long had a soft spot for the 29-year-old and even though a new deal for Headley would be tricky given their budget constraints, he'd be a very welcome addition in light of the Alex Rodriguez saga.  General Manager Josh Byrnes & Co. will surely be listening on offers for Headley, but both sides have stated their preference for a contract extension. 

So, done deal, right?  Not quite.  There appears to be a pretty serious schism in negotiations between San Diego and agent Jim Murray of Excel Sports Management.  Back in May, we heard that the Padres were looking to lock Headley up with something in the range of $75MM over five years.  Headley, meanwhile, likely sees Ryan Zimmerman's six-year, $100MM deal as a baseline for his own deal.  It's hard to say what kind of deal Headley could get out of the Padres.  On one hand, the Zimmerman deal raised the bar for what a top third baseman should command.  On the other hand, Headley is coming off of a down year and has really only had one season where he looked like an elite player.  Headley hit .243/.335/.389 with 10 homers and a 2.1 WAR, a far cry from his 2012 campaign where he slashed .286/.376/.498 with 31 home runs and a 6.3 WAR on his way to capturing Silver Slugger and Gold Glove awards.  Pads skipper Bud Black attributes much of Headley's struggles to the thumb injury he suffered in Spring Training, but the dip in hitting is still a concern.  Recently, Tim Dierkes opined that Headley will probably risk being traded elsewhere if he can't get something in the range of Andre Ethier's five-year, $85MM deal from San Diego. 

Looking out-of-house, the Padres' top priority will probably be to bolster their rotation.  Thanks to the progress of Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross and the July addition of Ian Kennedy, the top half of the starting five is taken care of.  After that, San Diego will be waiting on the returns of Joe Wieland and Cory Luebke after Tommy John surgery.  Eric Stults will probably stay in the starting five after posting a 3.93 ERA with 5.8 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 33 starts last season.  The Padres are likely to non-tender Clayton Richard and they already purged Edinson Volquez from the roster, so there will be spots available.  There will be plenty of affordable veterans for the Padres to choose from as they look to improve the rotation while saving some coin for the rest of the roster.  Chris Capuano figures to be bought out of his $8MM mutual option with the Dodgers and will probably be willing to take a bit of a pay cut.  A modest offer could also net them someone of Roberto Hernandez or Jason Hammel's caliber.  

The bullpen also needs to be shored up as the Padres' middle relief was shaky for much of the year.  Anthony Bass, Brad Brach, Brad Boxberger, and Miles Mikolas all had varying degrees of success in 2013, but they'll have to take a step or two forward to show that they can be reliable.  Nick Vincent and Tim Stauffer were solid but San Diego will have to rebuild the bridge to Luke Gregerson and closer Huston Street.  Speaking of Gregerson, San Diego will have to address his future as he enters his final year of arbitration eligibility.  A club-friendly extension would be ideal, but the Padres will also find a lot of interested suitors if they shop him. 

Ronny Cedeno saw a ton of playing time in 2013 thanks to Everth Cabrera's PED suspension and gave the Padres decent defensive play.  He'll be a free agent, however, and they'll look for another shortstop/utility man if they don't retain him.  If the Padres can trade Headley, they can cover for him easily by moving Jedd Gyorko over to third, but that will create something of a void at second.  Logan Forsythe and Alexi Amarista can handle the position but they'd be better off with a full-timer who can replace some of Headley's offense.  

You can expect 90 percent of San Diego's trade buzz to center on Headley, but its possible that they work the phones to fill other holes in the lineup.  Recently, Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune suggested that the Padres could move either Will Venable or Chris Denorfia and a pitching prospect for an upgrade at a corner outfield slot.  The Pads have gotten interest in both players in the past and with salaries of $4.25MM and $2.25MM, respectively, they could be attractive to other teams. 

Headley figures to get the most ink of anyone tied to the Padres this offseason, but they'll have other matters to tend to as well.  

Arbitration Eligibles: San Diego Padres

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Padres are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

After a disappointing season that made 2012's power output look like the outlier, Headley projects to receive a small raise through arbitration as he enters his contract year.  Mutual interest in an extension remains, Headley told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick in September.  Crasnick suggested Alex Gordon's five-year, $50MM deal as a potential comparable, a contract signed directly after Gordon's first elite season with the player two years away from free agency.  We've seen contract year extensions for Carlos Gomez (three years, $24MM), Martin Prado (four years, $40MM), and Carlos Quentin (three years, $30MM), and Headley could regret sacrificing his first crack at free agency for that type of deal.  Headley told Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times in September, "I'm not actively trying to get to free agency, but trying to get what you are worth is important. It would be foolish not to at least pay attention. I'm not going to sell myself short."  I think if Headley can't get close to the five-year, $85MM range of the Andre Ethier deal, he'll hold off and risk a potential trade now or in July.

With Kennedy, Stults, Cashner, Ross, and Richard, the Padres have an entire rotation eligible for arbitration.  After undergoing shoulder surgery in mid-July, expect Richard to be non-tendered, even without a raise in the cards.  It's possible the Padres could look to bring him back on a much cheaper deal.  The other four are secure, with newly-acquired workhorse Kennedy projecting for the largest salary.  As a Boras Corporation client coming off a 4.91 ERA season, I don't expect him to sign an extension.  Ross, acquired from the Athletics a year ago, posted a sparkling 3.06 ERA in 16 starts but may not have done enough in his career to justify an extension.

Stults and Cashner are a study in contrast: the soft-tossing, 33-year-old former journeyman southpaw, and the hard-throwing 27-year-old former first round draft pick.  Stults led the Padres in innings this year and would probably jump at a multiyear guarantee.  Cashner had a breakout, fully healthy year, logging a 3.04 ERA in 26 starts after joining the rotation in late April.  With only 286 1/3 career innings, he's best compared to pitchers with less than three years of service, making five years and less than $30MM a possibility if both sides are thinking long-term.

Gregerson logged another sub-3.00 ERA season, showing a level of durability and consistency rarely found in a reliever.  The market suggests a three-year deal in the $15-16MM deal range, though the Padres could consider trading him for a significant return if they'd prefer not to go long-term.  After beginning the season in the minors, Stauffer fell short of six years of Major League service time.  He should be retained after a solid campaign as a long reliever.

Cabrera earned his first All-Star nod from Giants manager Bruce Bochy, though it was tainted by the Biogenesis investigation.  At the All-Star game, Cabrera maintained his innocence, which was ultimately revealed as a lie the following month when he accepted a 50-game suspension and apologized.  It would be a difficult spot for the Padres to lock him up, plus he's a Boras client anyway.

Blanks set a career high with 308 plate appearances, including five home runs and 18 RBI in June.  He later missed significant time with an Achilles injury.  Guzman started over 60 games for the 2013 Padres with ugly results, failing to mash lefties as he did from 2011-12.  Both are right-handed hitters who can handle first base and the outfield corners.  They also both project to earn around a million bucks.  If the Padres' projected starters are healthy, they may only have room for one of Blanks and Guzman, making a trade possible.  As the younger of the two, Blanks seems more likely to stay.

Assuming Headley, Kennedy, Gregerson, Stults, Cashner, Cabrera, Guzman, Ross, Blanks, and Stauffer are tendered contracts, the Padres are looking at an estimated $33.1MM for ten arbitration eligible players.

NL West Notes: Giants, Towers, Rockies, Padres

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Let's start the weekend off with a few notes out of the National League's West division:

  • Don't expect any big news on the Giants' major off-season decisions until after the World Series, says Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Sulia). The team has five days after the end of the post-season to decide whether to pick up Ryan Vogelsong's option and to decide whether to issue Tim Lincecum a qualifying offer. Otherwise, Schulman says, the club is not likely to make reliever Javier Lopez a "pre-emptive offer" and has only engaged in "preliminary" talks with Lincecum to date.
  • Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers is simply wrong when he says that the team's issues stem from a lack of toughness, writes Dan Bickley of the Arizona Republic, who says that the club's mediocrity stems from a lack of talent for which Towers himself is responsible. In support of the latter half of that thesis, Bickley says Towers overvalued reliever Heath Bell, dealt Justin Upton only to say he'll be shopping for power in the corners, and sold low on starter Ian Kennedy.
  • Another front office tandem — Dan O'Dowd and Bill Geivett of the Rockies – have gotten by on mediocrity for too long, says Benjamin Hochman of the Denver Post. Nevertheless, he reports, owner Dick Monfort seems to have no intention of making a change. "Continuity here is very important," said Monfort. "I really don't believe that either one of them has done a poor job."
  • Addressing a variety of Padres topics in a fan chat, Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune said that he believes the Friars could be active on the trade market and may look to deal arms like Robbie Erlin, Burch Smith, or possibly Eric Stults given the depth at the back of the team's rotation. He says the club is more interested in adding a big bat in a deal, though it could still tack on some arms via free agency.

Managerial/Coaching Rumors: Nagy, Yankees, Price

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As reported earlier today, the Cubs are considering such names as Manny Acta, A.J. Hinch and Rick Renteria to be their new manager, though it seems they're prepared to top any offer Joe Girardi might receive from the Yankees.  Here's the latest on some managerial openings and coaching candidates from around baseball…

  • The Diamondbacks have fired pitching coach Charles Nagy, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports.  Nagy had served in the role for the previous three seasons.
  • Don Mattingly tops the list of potential candidates ESPN New York's Andrew Marchand thinks could be the next Yankees manager if Girardi isn't re-signed.  While Dodgers management has praised Mattingly, the fact that they haven't yet exercised their $1.4MM team option on Mattingly for 2014 has raised some speculation about Mattingly's job security in Los Angeles. 
  • Internal Yankees candidates such as Pete Mackanin, Tony Pena, Don Wakamatsu and Dave Miley are also on Marchand's list, while high-profile names like Dusty Baker, Tony La Russa and Lou Piniella are seen as long shots.
  • Reds pitching coach Bryan Price said he was interested in the team's manager job, MLB.com's Mark Sheldon reports (Twitter link), though Price didn't further comment on the topic.  Price has been cited as the possible favorite internal candidate to succeed Baker as Cincinnati's skipper.
  • Several interested parties have already contacted Reds GM Walt Jocketty about the job, Jocketty tells John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, though franchise legend Barry Larkin isn't one of them.  The team is "just scratching the surface" on their search, Jocketty said, and hasn't yet made plans to interview first base coach Billy Hatcher or bench coach Chris Speier.  The Reds will probably begin interviewing candidates next week.
  • Joe Espada, the Marlins third base coach for the last four seasons, could receive some interviews for a manager's job this winter, a scout tells Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun Sentinel.  At the very least, Espada will be pursued for coaching jobs on Major League rosters.  The Marlins themselves see Espada as a potential future skipper and thus assigned him to manage their Class A team in Jupiter for 2014 to gain experience.
  • Blue Jays hitting coach Chad Mottola and first base coach Dwayne Murphy (who is retiring) will not return next season, the Jays announced via press release.  Mottola took over from Murphy as Toronto's hitting coach before the 2013 season.  The rest of the Blue Jays' coaches will return in 2014.
  • The Padres will retain their entire coaching staff next season, the club announced.

NL Notes: Brewers, Padres, Beltran, Mets

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The National League takes center stage as the MLB playoffs continue with Division Series action in Pittsburgh and Los Angeles. Will there be any goats at either PNC Park or Dodger Stadium? Probably not, especially after what happened to the Cubs 68 years ago today when they kicked out Chicago tavern owner Billy Sianis and his goat from Game Four of the World Series. Sianis proclaimed "Them Cubs, they ain't gonna win no more," which started the now infamous "Curse of the Billy Goat." Here's the latest news and notes from the Senior Circuit:

  • The Brewers' solid play over the final two months of the season has changed thoughts of a complete teardown to mere retooling, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "Can we win with this roster? Yeah, we can win with the roster we have," GM Doug Melvin told Haudricourt. "I think if our best players are on the field and our young guys take that next step, we can be there." Melvin, however, admitted the Brewers are probably not as talented as in past years. 
  • The Padres say payroll will increase to $80MM next year, but it still may not be enough to compete in the NL West, according to Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Times. Center opines the Padres need to add a middle-of-the-order bat and could package outfielders Will Venable or Chris Denorfia with a pitching prospect for a corner outfielder or peddle Yonder Alonso for a more traditional power-hitting first baseman.  
  • Carlos Beltran confirmed he spoke with Mets COO Jeff Wilpon, but would not reveal what was discussed, reports the New York Post's Mike Puma. Beltran, a free agent after the World Series, was diplomatic when asked about a reunion with the club, "I'm going to listen to everybody and we’ll see what happens."
  • Wilpon is growing antsy and needs the Mets to start peforming in order to increase attendance and the overall value of the franchise, sources have told Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog.com. With this in mind and based on his knowledge of the front office and his limited conversations to date, Cerrone lists the Mets' potential free agent and trade targets and one notable name is missing: Shin-Soo Choo. 

AL East Notes: Orioles, Rays, Price, Cano

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Brian Matusz and Tommy Hunter want to be starters again, but they've already proven themselves to be successful in the bullpen, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.  While manager Buck Showalter will work to stretch them out in spring training, its possible that the O's would have sent Matusz to Triple-A Norfolk to work as a starter if that were an option.  Here's more out of the AL East..

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post reached out to nine baseball executives yesterday to ask if they felt David Price would get moved this winter and they all said yes.  Price, like Matt Garza and James Shields when they were dealt from Tampa Bay, is two years away from free agency, meaning that this is the time to move him.  The Rangers came up most often as the most likely destination followed by the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Padres, Red Sox, Giants, and Reds.
  • The perception around baseball that free agent Robinson Cano doesn't work hard could hurt his value, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post says that's its an unfair label.  The second baseman has a tendency to not run out grounders, but generally speaking, he has impeccable work habits.  “When he hits a groundball to the second baseman or shortstop, I know what it looks like,” hitting coach Kevin Long said. “I get it. I know it is part of the perception. He’s been talked to a million times about it. But I am telling you that is not a true picture of how hard he works or cares, and so if that is his only downfall, it is not the worst thing in the world.”
  • Kubatko revisited the Orioles' trade for Bud Norris and wonders if it will be worthwhile when all is said and done.
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