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Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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2022 was a big success for the Padres, as they made the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2006. They then knocked off the 101-win Mets as well as the 111-win Dodgers, slaying “the dragon up the freeway.” The Phillies put a stop to the magic in the NLCS but it was still the best campaign in recent Padres history. They have a strong core together to keep the good times going in 2023, but will also have to address some gaps created when some key pieces hit free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Padres also owe Eric Hosmer, since traded to the Red Sox, the majority of the three years and $39MM left on his contract. The Red Sox will pay him the league minimum with the Padres paying the rest. Hosmer can opt out after 2022 but is unlikely to do so.

Total 2023 commitments: $128.11MM
Total future commitments: $727.45MM

Options Decisions

  • Wil Myers, OF: $20MM club option with $1MM buyout.
  • Jurickson Profar, OF: $7.5MM player option with $1MM buyout. Contract also has mutual option for 2024.
  • Nick Martinez, RP: $6.5MM player option with $1MM buyout. Same structure exists for 2024 and 2025.
  • Robert Suarez, RP: $5MM player option with $1MM buyout.

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Padres stole the show at the 2022 trade deadline, acquiring Juan Soto in one of the most unique trades in baseball history. He still has a couple years of arbitration eligibility to go, meaning the Friars will be able to enjoy a full season of Soto’s work in 2023. In terms of the other deadline pickups, Brandon Drury and Josh Bell are heading to free agency but Josh Hader has one arb year left, allowing the Padres to hang onto him.

Soto will be locked into right field, with Trent Grisham likely next to him in center. Grisham didn’t have a great year at the plate in 2022, but he’s still valuable due to his speed and defense. Left field could be wide open, as Jurickson Profar is lined up to opt out of the final season of his three-year deal. He’s set to make $7.5MM but could take the $1MM buyout and look to find more than $6.5MM on the open market to come out ahead. Wil Myers also saw some time in the outfield in 2022, though the Padres are sure to give him the $1MM buyout instead of picking up his $20MM option.

Of course, one complicating factor that needs to be considered is the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. An injury incurred via motorcycle accident during the lockout kept him out of action for the first half of 2022 and then a PED suspension prevented him appearing in the second half. The Padres will have to make a decision on where Tatis fits after that disappointing sequence of events. He still has 20 games remaining on his suspension but will be eligible to return to the team after that. While he was out of action, Ha-Seong Kim took over the shortstop job and had an excellent season.

Tatis has played some outfield in the past while dealing with injuries that kept him off short. He could theoretically be moved onto the grass going forward, but it seems the club is leaning towards a plan where Tatis returns to short, Kim moves over to second and Jake Cronenworth gets bumped to first. With Myers, Drury and Bell all departing, that would open up first for Cronenworth. Manny Machado is coming off an excellent season and will be a mainstay at third. If that is indeed the plan they wish to follow, adding a corner outfielder should be the main priority on the position player side of things.

The Friars have some internal options who could step up, such as José Azocar or Brandon Dixon, but they should be looking for an upgrade here. The top of the outfield market this winter will be Aaron Judge, who is set up for a massive payday. The Padres have shown they are not afraid to make a huge strike, meaning they can’t be ruled out on getting Judge and perhaps moving Soto over to left. However, with many large contracts already in place, they might opt for more modest options like Andrew Benintendi, Michael Brantley or Mitch Haniger. They could also be a fit for Trey Mancini, who can play first base and the outfield corners. Bringing back Drury and his positional versatility is also a logical move.

Behind the plate, the Padres have three MLB-caliber catchers in place, though they will have to make a decision about whether or not to keep all of them around next year. Jorge Alfaro didn’t get much time behind the plate towards the end of the year, only starting at catcher four times after rosters expanded at the start of September. The rest of the starts went to Austin Nola and Luis Campusano. With Alfaro striking out in 35.8% of his plate appearances and not getting great marks for his defensive work, the club likely moves on and lets Campusano finally have some real playing time. He debuted in 2020 but still only has 28 MLB games on his résumé. With Alfaro projected for an arbitration salary of $3.6MM, he’s likely to be non-tendered.

In the rotation, the Padres will still have a strong front three, as Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell are all under contract for next year. They will have to make decisions about the backend, though, as Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea are both headed into free agency. The Padres also weakened their depth by including MacKenzie Gore in the Soto trade.

There is one in-house option in Adrian Morejon, with the club evidently not giving up on him as a starter. Morejon underwent Tommy John surgery in April of 2021 and returned to make 26 appearances in 2022, though all of those were out of the bullpen. But prior to that, he was considered one of the best pitching prospects in the league. It’s fairly logical that the Padres would want to give him another chance to see what he can do, but it’s also unlikely they will simply hand him a guaranteed spot in the rotation after a long layoff and then a handful of bullpen outings.

There are a couple of other depth options in the system, but the Padres will likely be looking to add two starters. There will be no shortage of options, with Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodón all expected to trigger opt-outs and form the top of the pitching market. For teams that miss out on those guys, there are still lots of interesting hurlers on the next tier, including Kodai Senga, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Bassitt, Tyler Anderson and many more. They could also look to the trade market, perhaps trying to get Pablo López or Jesús Luzardo from the Marlins. But after unloading so many prospects at the deadline, they might not want to further subtract from their system.

The bullpen also might need some upgrades, especially if Robert Suarez and Nick Martinez both decide to opt out and return to free agency. If they did, they would join Craig Stammen and Pierce Johnson, potentially subtracting four arms from the relief corps. They would still have Josh Hader, which is a fine starting point and means they probably won’t go for Edwin Diaz. But they could look for quality setup options, such as bringing back Suarez or going after Michael Fulmer, Chris Martin, Adam Ottavino or Brad Hand. Martinez would reportedly prefer to be a starter, so perhaps they could convince him to stick around, if they think he can handle a rotation spot. Suarez, however, is a virtual lock to test free agency and land a multi-year deal.

Of course, how aggressive they go after filling these vacancies will depend upon the payroll situation. Historically, the Padres were not huge spenders but they have shifted that reputation in recent years, even nudging into luxury tax territory in each of the past two seasons. Roster Resource estimates their actual 2023 payroll to currently be around $187MM though the CBT number is much higher at $213MM. The disparity comes from the fact that CBT calculations are based on the average annual values of contracts, not just the salary earned by the players in 2023, and also factor in player benefits.

It’s unknown at this point how much the club is willing to spend, but it’s possible they could take the same approach as they did in 2022, hovering near the tax line but willing to go over it at the deadline if the right opportunity comes along. The lowest CBT threshold is jumping from $230MM up to $233MM for 2023, but that wouldn’t leave the Padres a lot of room to work with. A few non-tenders would create some more breathing room, but probably only about $5MM or so.

The club has plenty of talent but could use a left fielder, two starting pitchers, some relievers and maybe a first baseman as well. If they only have about $20MM to play with, it will be difficult to accomplish all of that. But the Padres have shown in recent years that they might have more money in the bank than you’d expect. Perhaps this offseason will prove that yet again.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Padres-centric chat on 11-2-22. Click here to read the transcript.

MLB Announces 2022 Gold Glove Winners

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Major League Baseball announced the 2022 Gold Glove award winners this evening. This season was the first in which the league added a “utility” award to honor multi-positional players, in addition to the standard nine positions in each league. There are 20 winners overall, 14 of whom received a Gold Glove for the first time. Only two players who won last year claimed the award yet again.

Five teams had multiple winners, with the AL Central-winning Guardians leading the pack with four honorees. Cleveland ranked fourth in the majors (third in the American League) in turning balls in play into outs, with opponents managing a .274 batting average on balls in play against them. That excellent defensive group was an underrated part of the quality run prevention unit that helped Cleveland to a surprising playoff berth.

Here are the full list of winners:

American League

Pitcher: Shane Bieber (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: José Berríos (Blue Jays), Jameson Taillon (Yankees)

Catcher: Jose Trevino (Yankees), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Sean Murphy (Athletics), Cal Raleigh (Mariners)

First Base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Luis Arraez (Twins), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Second Base: Andrés Giménez (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jonathan Schoop (Tigers), Marcus Semien (Rangers)

Third Base: Ramón Urías (Orioles), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Matt Chapman (Blue Jays), José Ramírez (Guardians)

Shortstop: Jeremy Peña (Astros), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Carlos Correa (Twins)

Left Field: Steven Kwan (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Andrew Benintendi (Royals/Yankees), Brandon Marsh (Angels/Phillies)

Center Field: Myles Straw (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Cedric Mullins (Orioles), Michael A. Taylor (Royals)

Right Field: Kyle Tucker (Astros), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jackie Bradley Jr. (Red Sox/Blue Jays), Max Kepler (Twins)

Utility: DJ LeMahieu (Yankees), 4th career selection

Other finalists: Whit Merrifield (Royals/Blue Jays), Luis Rengifo (Angels)

National League

Pitcher: Max Fried (Braves), 3rd career selection/3rd consecutive win

Other finalists: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Corbin Burnes (Brewers)

Catcher: J.T. Realmuto (Phillies), 2nd career selection

Other finalists: Travis d’Arnaud (Braves), Tomás Nido (Mets)

First Base: Christian Walker (Diamondbacks), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals), Matt Olson (Braves)

Second Base: Brendan Rodgers (Rockies), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jake Cronenworth (Padres), Tommy Edman (Cardinals)

Third Base: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), 10th career selection/10th consecutive win

Other finalists: Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates), Ryan McMahon (Rockies)

Shortstop: Dansby Swanson (Braves), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Ha-Seong Kim (Padres), Miguel Rojas (Marlins)

Left Field: Ian Happ (Cubs), 1st career selection

Other finalists: David Peralta (Diamondbacks/Rays), Christian Yelich (Brewers)

Center Field: Trent Grisham (Padres), 2nd career selection

Other finalists: Víctor Robles (Nationals), Alek Thomas (Diamondbacks)

Right Field: Mookie Betts (Dodgers), 6th career selection

Other finalists: Juan Soto (Nationals/Padres), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)

Utility: Brendan Donovan (Cardinals), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Tommy Edman (Cardinals), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)

Padres Plan To Keep Spending In 2023

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  • The Padres surpassed the luxury tax threshold in each of the last two seasons, though it doesn’t seem like the team is planning to curb its spending any time soon.  “We’re good, and we have to protect that and enhance it,” club chairman Peter Seidler told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune).  Naturally, neither Seidler or president of baseball operations A.J. Preller gave any concrete numbers about offseason spending plans, and Preller noted that the Padres have had the financial flexibility “for the things are going to come up through the season.  Sometimes that calls for players and free agency trades, players of different caliber and different dollar amounts.”  As Acee notes, San Diego already has around $187MM projected for next season’s payroll, and plenty of holes to fill on a roster that might lose some key players to free agency.

13 Players Elect Free Agency

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With the World Series kicking off on Friday, we’re only a couple weeks from the opening of the offseason. It’s customary each offseason for dozens of players to hit the open market, separate from the players who reach MLB free agency at the end of the World Series based on the expiration of their contracts while having six-plus years of MLB service time.

Any player who is not on his team’s 40-man roster at season’s end but has three-plus years of MLB service, multiple career outright assignments and/or seven-plus seasons in the minor leagues has the right to elect free agency. Everyone in today’s group falls under that umbrella. The majority will take minor league deals over the winter, although one or two could find a big league deal as a bench piece or middle-inning reliever.

In recent weeks, we’ve provided periodic updates on players qualifying for minor league free agency. Here are the latest, courtesy of the MiLB.com transactions tracker.

Pitchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Padres Notes: Martinez, Morejon, Suarez, Drury, Myers

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The Padres made it to the NLCS for the first time since 1998, but their season came to a close yesterday when they were knocked off by the Phillies in five games. San Diego now turns its attention to the offseason, where they’ll face a decent amount of possible roster turnover around a star-studded core.

San Diego will see Mike Clevinger, Sean Manaea, midseason trade pickups Josh Bell and Brandon Drury and relievers Pierce Johnson and Craig Stammen all hit free agency. A handful of other players have contractual options that could get them to the open market. Each of Nick Martinez, Robert Suarez and Jurickson Profar has the ability to opt out of their contracts this winter. Wil Myers, meanwhile, has a $20MM team option that is certain to be bought out for $1MM.

Martinez and Suarez were two of San Diego’s higher-leverage relievers down the stretch, raising the possibility of a good portion of the Padres bullpen hitting the open market. As part of a broader look at questions facing the roster (a piece worth a read in full), Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune suggests Martinez is likely to test the open market. The right-hander signed a four-year, $25.5MM guarantee last winter following a three-season run in Japan, with the contract affording him an opt-out chance after each season. He’s due $19.5MM over the next three years but would be due a $1.5MM buyout if he opts out, meaning he’s left to decide whether he can top a three-year, $18MM guarantee on the open market.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a detailed look at the situation last month, noting that Martinez’s strong performance out of the bullpen made that an interesting call. Acee indicates Martinez could prioritize finding a rotation opportunity after working in a swing role this year. The 32-year-old started 10 of his first 12 outings but moved to the bullpen full-time in mid-June. At the time of his bullpen transfer, he had a 4.05 ERA with an average 21.9% strikeout rate and a slightly elevated 10.4% walk percentage. Following the move to relief, Martinez worked 46 frames of 2.74 ERA ball. He cut his walk rate to 7.4%, but his strikeout rate dipped a percentage point. Despite lacking power, swing-and-miss stuff, Martinez picked up eight saves and served as a generally versatile bullpen piece for manager Bob Melvin.

Martinez’s ostensible desire for a rotation spot shouldn’t inherently rule him out in San Diego. While he was squeezed out of the mix midseason, the Friars went on to deal MacKenzie Gore in the Juan Soto trade. Coupled with the aforementioned free agencies of Clevinger and Manaea, there should be a fair bit of opportunity behind Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. Acee indicates the Padres don’t want to abandon the possibility of using Adrián Morejón as a starter, however. The southpaw, once one of the game’s top pitching prospects, worked out of the bullpen 26 times this year after missing almost all of last season due to Tommy John surgery. Morejón isn’t guaranteed a season-opening rotation spot next year, but it seems the Friars are open to stretching him back out after a healthy offseason.

Suarez was a more straightforward power bullpen arm. Also a signee out of NPB last offseason, he went on to make 45 regular season appearances despite a two-month absence with right knee inflammation. He posted a 2.27 ERA across 47 2/3 innings, striking out a whopping 31.9% of opponents. Suarez’s control was erratic, but he brandished an upper-90s fastball and was Melvin’s most trusted bullpen arm by season’s end. It concluded on a sour note, with Suarez surrendering the go-ahead homer to Bryce Harper that brought San Diego’s year to a close, but he pitched out of a number of jams earlier in the postseason. With that kind of velocity and swing-and-miss stuff, he’s a lock to bypass the final $5MM on his deal in favor of a $1MM buyout and test free agency.

Things are a bit more settled on the position player side, but president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his staff will have to make a few key decisions there as well. First is whether to retain any of the impending free agents. Acee writes that the team is open to bringing back Drury, who hit eight homers in 46 games as a Padre. He only had a .290 on-base percentage during that time, but he’d posted a .274/.335/.520 showing with 20 homers for the Reds over the season’s first few months. Drury can cover any non-shortstop position on the infield and could serve as a corner outfield option with the team potentially losing Profar and Myers.

For his part, Myers indicated that he’s open to a return to San Diego (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). It certainly won’t be on the $20MM option, but Myers will find a big league deal on a lower base salary this offseason. He’s typically provided the Friars with slightly above-average offense, and that was again the case in 2022. Myers hit .261/.315/.398 over 286 plate appearances. He didn’t offer much against right-handed pitching but he popped six homers in 90 plate appearances against southpaws and carries a career .255/.351/.453 line while holding the platoon advantage.

With Bell’s possible departure, the Friars don’t have an obvious in-house first base option, perhaps opening the door for Myers to return at a lower rate. They could certainly dip into the free agent class there, although Acee notes there’s some support in the organization for playing Jake Cronenworth more frequently at first. Cronenworth is an above-average defensive second baseman, making that something of an odd fit, but San Diego has one of the sport’s most talented infields. Ha-Seong Kim proved himself an everyday player filling in for Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop, while Manny Machado is an MVP candidate at the hot corner.

Tatis didn’t play in 2022 because of injuries and a performance-enhancing drug suspension, but he’ll be back with the club in late April next year. Tatis still has 20 games remaining on his 80-game suspension — he missed 48 regular season contests and 12 playoff games this year — but will be back in the everyday lineup a few weeks into next year. Penciling him back in at shortstop could require kicking Kim to the other side of the second base bag. That’d form one of the sport’s top defensive infields, of particular value with forthcoming limitations on shifting. San Diego has also explored the possibility of playing Tatis in center field while curtailing Trent Grisham’s playing time on the heels of a .184/.284/.341 line. That could again be under consideration, but Tatis has previously expressed his preference for sticking at shortstop.

Padres Announce NLCS Roster

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The Padres rattled off three victories in a row to take down their division-rivals and advance to the NLCS. After defeating the 111-win Dodgers, San Diego has plenty of momentum as they prepare to take on the Phillies with a spot in the World Series on the line. The Friars will not make any changes to their postseason roster, keeping the same 26-man roster that they beat the Dodgers with.

Right-Handed Pitchers:

Left-Handed Pitchers:

Catchers:

Infielders:

Outfielders:

Though the Padres have made no changes from their NLDS roster, one player of note is lefty starter Sean Manaea, who has not seen game action in two weeks. Currently, San Diego has Yu Darvish lined up for Game 1 and Blake Snell for Game 2. It seems probable that Joe Musgrove will get the ball in Philadelphia for Game 3 in order to keep Musgrove available (three days rest) for a theoretical Game 7. That being said, with Games 3-7 scheduled to be played on five consecutive days, it is possible that Manaea will get his first start of the postseason during the NLCS. Alden González of ESPN reported that Manaea threw to hitters on Monday, possibly in preparation for a mid-series start (via Twitter).

Fernando Tatis Jr. Undergoes Follow-up Procedure On Wrist

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Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. underwent a second procedure on the fractured left wrist which required surgery back in March, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. There was no setback in Tatis’ recovery from the first surgery, per the report. However, given that Tatis is also on the mend from September shoulder surgery, Padres medical staff and multiple specialists agreed that the second procedure, performed last week, could provide greater long-term stability. Padres president of baseball ops A.J. Preller tells Acee that the recovery timetable of this new surgery aligns with that of September’s shoulder operation. Tatis is expected to be ready for Spring Training.

Of course, Tatis won’t be a part of the Padres’ Opening Day roster, regardless. His nightmarish 2022 year has included not only three surgeries to address two injuries but also an 80-game PED suspension, which was handed down on Aug. 12. He cited a ringworm medication which, unbeknownst to him contained a banned substance, as the reason for his positive test and did not appeal the punishment.

The exact amount of time Tatis will miss early next season is dependent on the Padres’ performance over the next few weeks, as postseason games count toward the suspension. He was suspended for the final 48 games of the Padres’ regular season and was unpaid during that time.

Tatis, 23, originally injured his wrist during an offseason motorcycle accident that the team didn’t learn of until the lockout lifted. (Teams were barred from communicating with their players in any form during the 99-day lockout.) The shoulder issue, meanwhile, dates back to a pair of subluxations suffered during an otherwise stellar 2021 season — the first on a swing early in the season and second while sliding into second base in July. Despite the pair of shoulder injuries, Tatis not only avoided surgery but recorded a .282/.364/.611 batting line with 42 home runs and 25 steals in 130 games (546 plate appearances).

There are still 12 years remaining on the 14-year, $340MM contract extension Tatis signed following his second season in the Majors. He’ll be paid $7MM in 2023 (minus the prorated portion of that salary for any days still remaining on his suspension). He’s then owed salaries of $11MM in 2024, $20MM in 2025-26, $25MM in 2027-28 and $36MM annually from 2029-36. His contract affords him full no-trade protection through 2028 and limited no-trade protection (to 13 teams of his choosing) thereafter. If not traded in 2029-30, he’d gain 10-and-5 rights heading into the 2031 season and then once again be able to veto any trade.

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The NLCS?

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There were plenty of times this season when it was unclear whether or not either of the Phillies or Padres would even reach the postseason, and even when the playoffs began, Philadelphia vs. San Diego seemed like a very unlikely scenario.  And yet, this is the matchup heading into the National League Championship Series, as both the Phils and Friars have upended the baseball world with four upsets.

The Phillies looked in deep trouble heading into the ninth inning of Game 1 of their Wild Card Series matchup with the Cardinals, but Philadelphia overcame a 2-0 deficit with a six-run outburst in the top of the ninth, en route to a 6-3 victory.  An Aaron Nola gem helped shut out the Cardinals in Game 2, clinching the series and setting the Phillies up for a date with their NL East rivals, the defending World Series-champion Braves.  Splitting the first two games in Atlanta, the Phillies lineup was seemingly buoyed by a raucous Citizens Bank Park crowd, outscoring the Braves by a 17-4 margin in Games 3 and 4 to move deeper into October.

Reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper has carried the offense, hitting .435/.480/.957 over his 26 plate appearances in the playoffs.  Jean Segura and Brandon Marsh have also been on fire at the plate, and while other Philadelphia batters have been generally less consistent, multiple players have delivered at least one big hit — for instance, Rhys Hoskins’ three-run homer in Game 3 of the NLDS, or J.T. Realmuto’s inside-the-park homer in Game 4.  On the pitching side, Nola has led the way with 12 2/3 scoreless innings of work, while the much-maligned Phillies bullpen has done its job in protecting leads.

The Padres are getting much of their offense from a superstar (Manny Machado), but also from the back end of their lineup, as Trent Grisham, Austin Nola, and Jurickson Profar have combined for 23 of San Diego’s 56 hits in the postseason.  Grisham has also been an unexpected power source, hitting three home runs in the playoffs after delivering only a .341 slugging percentage in the regular season.  Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, and Blake Snell have all pitched well in the rotation, and the bullpen has been almost untouchable.  Apart from a disastrous Adrian Morejon outing that saw him charged with four runs without a single out, the rest of San Diego’s relievers have a cumulative 0.73 ERA over 24 2/3 innings.

This well-rounded attack helped the Padres outlast the Mets in the Wild Card Series, as San Diego beat up on Mets ace Max Scherzer in Game 1, and Musgrove and the bullpen held New York to just a single hit in a 6-0 win in the Game 3 clincher.  Moving into the NLDS, the Padres exorcised years of demons by defeating the arch-rival Dodgers in four games, winning the final three contests after Los Angeles won Game 1.  The Dodgers also held a 3-0 lead heading into the bottom of the seventh inning of Game 4, but the Padres launched a five-run outburst to take the lead and finally claim some bragging rights in the SoCal rivalry.

This is the first-ever postseason meeting between the two franchises.  Philadelphia last reached the NLCS in 2010 (and hadn’t been in the playoffs altogether since 2011), while San Diego’s last NLCS trip came all the way back in 1998.  There isn’t a ton of shared history between the two teams, though some bad blood surfaced in June when Snell hit Harper with a pitch, fracturing the outfielder’s thumb and sending Harper to the injured list for two months.

Who is your pick to win this battle of the Nola brothers, and battle of the NL underdogs?

(poll link for app users)

Padres Activate Mike Clevinger For NL Division Series

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The Padres went to Queens and took two out of three to knock off the Mets last week. They’ll now start a five-game set looking to take down the Dodgers, a team that was 22 games clear of them for the lead in the NL West. San Diego makes one change to their roster from the Mets series.

Here’s how it all breaks down:

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

The only adjustment for the Friars is the installation of Mike Clevinger onto the Division Series roster. The right-hander was sidelined by a non-COVID illness late in the regular season. While he reported to the team in Flushing, the Friars didn’t carry him on the roster for the series. Clevinger, who had a 4.33 ERA with a career-low 18.8% strikeout rate over 114 1/3 innings this year, may not have gotten a start over Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove during the three-game set regardless. With the potential for a five-game series this time around, San Diego adds an extra arm to the staff. Clevinger will step right into the mix with a Game One start after the Friars deployed their top three arms late last week.

As a result, the Padres swap out infielder Brandon Dixon. Carried as a right-handed bench bat during the first set, Dixon didn’t make an appearance. He won’t be an option for manager Bob Melvin this series unless he’s added as an injury replacement.

Padres Interested In Extension Talks With Yu Darvish

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Yu Darvish is coming off his second quality season with the Padres, with his 2022 campaign representing a step beyond his solid 2021 numbers.  This season, Darvish posted a 3.10 ERA, an above-average 25.6% strikeout rate and an outstanding 4.8% walk rate over 194 2/3 innings, while continuing to post one of the best fastball spin rates of any pitcher in baseball.  Yesterday, the right-hander stepped up big in Game One of the NL Wild Card Series, allowing one run in seven innings in San Diego’s 7-1 win over the Mets.

Though Darvish turned 36 in August, the Padres have already seen enough to want to explore a contract extension with Darvish this offseason, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.  Darvish is entering the final year of his current deal — the six-year, $126MM free agent pact he signed with the Cubs prior to the 2018 season.

When triceps tendinitis limited Darvish to only 40 innings (of 4.95 ERA pitching) in 2018, there was already some concern in Wrigleyville that the signing could be a bust.  However, Darvish rebounded to post a 3.98 ERA over 178 2/3 innings in 2019, and his 2.01 ERA over 76 innings in the shortened 2020 season earned the righty a second-place finish in NL Cy Young Award voting.  As the Cubs were entering a rebuild period, they traded Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini to the Padres for a five-player package and some significant salary relief.

Other than the hip and back problems that resulted in a pair of brief IL stints late in the 2021 season, Darvish has been pretty healthy since that abbreviated 2018 campaign.  Only 10 pitchers threw more than 194 2/3 frames in 2022, and that total was also the second-highest innings count of Darvish’s 10 Major League seasons.  Of course, Darvish’s career workload doesn’t just include MLB, as he tossed 1268 1/3 innings in Nippon Professional Baseball before coming to North America and tossing 1488 regular-season innings.

It’s probably safe to assume that the Padres aren’t looking for another long-term pact for Darvish, and Acee notes that Darvish hasn’t given any indication about how much longer he wishes to keep playing.  However, adding another season (or even two) may fit into the club’s interest if they’re confident Darvish can keep producing into his late 30’s.  Mike Clevinger, Sean Manaea, and Nick Martinez are free agents this winter, but the Padres kept one major arm off the market when they inked Joe Musgrove to a five-year, $100MM extension back in August.  Musgrove, Darvish, and Blake Snell project as San Diego’s top three starters heading into 2023, though Darvish and Snell are both only under contract through next season.

Extending Darvish would give the Padres a bit more rotation security going forward, even if a new deal covered only 2024 or 2025.  San Diego exceeded the luxury tax threshold in both 2021 and 2022, but quite a bit of money will be off the books after the 2023 season, which is presumably when a Darvish extension would begin.  If a new deal overwrote the final year of Darvish’s current contract, that could give the Padres some more immediate luxury tax breathing room for 2023.  Darvish is owed $18MM in 2023 but his tax number is $21MM, the average of $126MM divided over six seasons.

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