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Veterans With Upcoming Opt-Outs On Minor League Deals

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Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association agreed to a new collective bargaining agreement just over a year ago, and one of the provisions in that CBA is uniform opt-out opportunities for Article XX(B) free agents on minor league deals. An Article XX(B) free agent is one with at least six years of service time who finished the previous season on a major league roster or injured list. Any such player who signs a minor league deal more than ten days prior to Opening Day can opt out of that deal at three points if they haven’t been added to the 40-man roster: five days before Opening Day, May 1 and June 1.

This year, Opening Day is March 30, meaning that first opt-out opportunity is coming up this Saturday, March 25. Teams will have to make some decisions between now and then about whether or not to give these players roster spots or let them return to the open market to pursue other opportunities. With many teams dealing with spring injuries, some of these players should be able to find opportunities elsewhere if they can’t find it with their current organization. Their current clubs can prevent them from opting out by giving them a roster spot, but that may involve cutting someone else.

Players who don’t meet this criteria can also negotiate opt-out provisions into their contracts. First baseman Luke Voit has less than six years service time but has an opt-out in his deal with the Brewers, which he recently pushed to this Friday. But the players listed below will have them automatically.

Angels: RHP Chris Devenski

Devenski, 32, had some good seasons with the Astros in 2016 and 2017 but fell off in the two years after. He’s been either hurt or ineffective in the past three campaigns, not reaching 15 innings pitched in any of them. He tossed 14 2/3 frames last year between the Diamondbacks and Phillies with a combined 8.59 ERA. The Halos have a large number of relievers on their roster that can’t be optioned, which doesn’t leave a lot of room for someone like Devenski.

Braves: IF Ehire Adrianza, OF Kevin Pillar and RHP Jesse Chavez

Adrianza, 33, is a light-hitting utility infielder who was with the Nationals last year until the Braves acquired him at the deadline, though injuries limited him to just six games with Atlanta. Pillar, 34, has long been known as a glove-first outfielder. He was drafted by the Blue Jays and worked his way up to the majors when Alex Anthopoulos, now the president of baseball operations in Atlanta, was with the Jays. Pillar got into four games with the Dodgers last year before a shoulder fracture ended his season. Chavez, 39, started last year with the Cubs but was flipped to Atlanta in April for Sean Newcomb. The Braves then sent him to the Angels in the Raisel Iglesias deal but claimed him off waivers a few weeks later. He ended up throwing 69 1/3 innings on the year with a 3.76 ERA.

It’s possible that all three of these guys are on the verge of getting roster spots. The club recently optioned various players on the 40-man, including Vaughn Grissom, Braden Shewmake, Jordan Luplow, Eli White and Nick Anderson. Grissom and Shewmake were in competition for the shortstop job but it seems they will get more seasoning in the minors while Orlando Arcia takes the gig, with Adrianza in backup infield role. Pillar was competing with Luplow and White for a job as a backup outfielder but it seems he may get the nod. The club clearly loves Chavez based on the fact that they acquired him twice last year. The 40-man roster already has a couple of open spots before they’ve even moved Huascar Ynoa and Tyler Matzek to the 60-day injured list. Both of them are going to be out for most or perhaps all of the year due to Tommy John surgery. Atlanta could therefore have four roster spots at their disposal, allowing them to select these three and whichever of Jared Shuster or Dylan Dodd gets the fifth starter job.

Brewers: OF Tyler Naquin

Naquin, 32 next month, is a solid platoon bat from the left side. For his career, he’s hit .274/.326/.468 against righties for a 109 wRC+, compared to a .210/.272/.339 line and 62 wRC+ against southpaws. With Tyrone Taylor set to miss the first month of the season with an elbow injury, the club could use another outfielder. As mentioned above, the Brewers also have Voit in camp on a minor league deal, which makes things a little crowded. Voit could have opted out of his deal last week but agreed to push his decision because he and the club seem happy with each other, but the roster decisions still need to be made.

Opening one spot on the 40-man will be easy, as Justin Wilson is set to miss most of the year recovering from Tommy John surgery and will surely be placed on the 60-day IL shortly. Aaron Ashby could also go to the 60-day as he’s out with a shoulder injury, though the latest reporting indicated that he was targeting a mid-May return, which the club might not want to close off. Beyond the 40-man questions, there’s the fit on the active roster to think about, as adding both Voit and Naquin would likely involve optioning Owen Miller and Brice Turang, or perhaps designating Keston Hiura for assignment. Brewers general manager Matt Arnold recently spoke about some of the “tough decisions” the club has to make.

Dodgers: OF Jason Heyward

Heyward signed an eight-year, $184MM deal with the Cubs prior to the 2016 campaign but never really lived up to expectations. Outside of the shortened 2020 season, he never posted a wRC+ higher than 100, which is league average. Last year, he hit .204/.278/.277 for a wRC+ of 61 in 48 games. He went on the injured list in late June with a knee injury and never returned. While on the IL, the Cubs announced they would be releasing Heyward at season’s end, despite still having one year left on his contract.

The Dodgers signed him to a minor league deal and will be responsible for paying him just the MLB minimum salary for any time spent on the big league roster, with the Cubs on the hook for the majority of his salary. Despite not hitting much in recent years, he’s always gotten good grades for his defense, though those numbers have naturally declined as he’s aged. Manager Dave Roberts has recently suggested Heyward is likely to make the club. They’ll need to open a roster spot but could do so easily by transferring Gavin Lux to the 60-day IL, as he’s expected to miss the entire season with a torn ACL.

Giants: C Roberto Pérez and RHP Joe Ross

Pérez, 34, has long been a well-regarded defensive catcher with a subpar bat. He has a career batting line of .207/.298/.360 but has also racked up 79 Defensive Runs Saved. He only played 21 games for the Pirates last year before hamstring surgery ended his season. The Giants already have two catchers on the roster in Joey Bart and Rule 5 pick Blake Sabol, but the latter can play other positions and has recently been getting some outfield work. Perhaps that allows Pérez to make the club as a more straightforward backup to Bart, which will necessitate a roster move. Luis González is expected to miss the first half of the season due to back surgery and could be move to the 60-day IL to open a spot for Perez.

Ross, 30 in May, had the second Tommy John surgery of his career last June and isn’t set to return for a while. He signed a minor league deal with the Giants in January and presumably intends to stick with the organization as he rehabs.

Mariners: OF Kole Calhoun

Calhoun, 35, has had many strong years at the plate but is coming off a pair of rough ones. In 2021, he made multiple trips to the IL for hamstring issues and only got into 51 games. Last year, he hit .196/.257/.330 with the Rangers, striking out in 32.1% of his plate appearances.

The M’s will likely have Julio Rodríguez, Teoscar Hernández, Jarred Kelenic and AJ Pollock in their outfield mix. Some recent injuries to Taylor Trammell and Dylan Moore perhaps helped Calhoun’s chances of carving out a bench role, but the club also has Cooper Hummel and Sam Haggerty on hand as outfield-capable utility players, and outfield prospect Cade Marlowe is on the 40-man roster.

Marlins: IF Yuli Gurriel and IF José Iglesias

Gurriel, 39 in June, has been an excellent hitter for much of his career but inconsistent of late. He dipped in 2020 but bounced back to winning a batting title in 2021. Another dip followed last year, as he hit .242/.288/.360 for a wRC+ of 85. Iglesias, 33, has long been a light-hitting glove-first shortstop, though his defensive grades have slipped of late. With the Rockies last year, he hit .292/.328/.380 for a wRC+ of 85.

Gurriel seems likely to get a spot based on the way he and the club danced with each other this offseason. They reportedly offered him a $2MM deal at one point but withdrew it after a week went by without a response, later circling back to get this minor league deal done. Iglesias also makes sense as insurance for the club now that Miguel Rojas has been traded to the Dodgers, leaving utility man Joey Wendle as the top option at short. If they want to select both, they’ll need two roster spots. One of them should be easy with Max Meyer set to miss most of the season due to Tommy John surgery and bound for the 60-day IL shortly.

Mets: RHP Tommy Hunter

Hunter, 36, is a 15-year veteran who has thrived as a reliever over the past 10 of those. However, injuries have been an issue recently, as he hasn’t topped 25 innings in a season since 2018. With the Mets last year, he posted a 2.42 ERA in 22 1/3 innings but made multiple trips to the IL due to back tightness.

The Mets’ bullpen suffered a huge blow recently with Edwin Díaz likely done for the season due to knee surgery, as Sam Coonrod and Bryce Montes de Oca also deal with injuries. That could open up a window for someone like Hunter, but the Mets have also said they’d prefer to have some optionable pitchers in the bullpen, which could work against him. If they do want Hunter in the mix, opening a roster spot will be easy with Díaz and José Quintana both destined for the 60-day IL soon.

Nationals: RHP Chad Kuhl, RHP Alex Colomé and LHP Sean Doolittle

Kuhl, 30, had some decent seasons pitching for the Pirates but had an inconsistent season with the Rockies last year. He had a 3.49 ERA through the end of June but then an 8.60 the rest of the way, finishing up at 5.72 combined. Colomé, 34, has been an effective reliever for many years but also found it hard to succeed in Coors. He signed with the Rockies last year and posted a 5.74 ERA on the year. He’s not too far removed from a ridiculous 0.81 ERA in the shortened 2020 season and a 2.80 in 2019.

Kuhl seems to be the favorite to replace Cade Cavalli in the rotation, with the latter set to miss the whole season due to Tommy John surgery. Colomé makes sense for the club given they have few settled options in their bullpen. Opening up two spots should be straightforward since Cavalli and Tanner Rainey are both candidates for the 60-day IL due to Tommy John surgery.

As for Doolittle, he recently spoke about taking it slow in his rehab from last year’s elbow sprain and brace procedure. He isn’t likely to be ready for Opening Day but seems happy with his rehab process and would therefore likely forgo his first opt-out opportunity.

Padres: IF Rougned Odor and RHP Craig Stammen

Odor, 29, has long been a one-dimensional hitter, providing power and little else. With the Orioles last year, he hit 13 home runs but slashed .207/.275/.357 for a wRC+ of 80. He’ll be trying to force his way into a bench role in San Diego. One spot will go to a backup catcher, leaving three spots for Odor, Adam Engel, José Azocar, Brandon Dixon, Matthew Batten, Tim Lopes and David Dahl. The club doesn’t have an obvious candidate for the 60-day IL, which could work against non-roster players like Odor, Lopes and Dahl.

As for Stammen, 39, he recently revealed that he suffered a torn capsule in his right shoulder and strained sub scapula and likely won’t pitch ever again.

Pirates: C Kevin Plawecki

Plawecki, 32, is a career .235/.313/.341 hitter, leading to a wRC+ of 80. That’s bit below average, even for a catcher, but he has good grades for his defense and framing and is considered a strong clubhouse leader. When he was designated by assignment by the Red Sox last year, some players, including current Pirate Rich Hill, spoke publicly about how much they didn’t like Plawecki’s departure. The Rangers added him for the final games of the season even though they weren’t in contention, seemingly valuing those same intangibles.

The Bucs will have Austin Hedges as their primary catcher but seem likely to select Plawecki to be the backup. Hedges is one of only two backstops currently on the 40-man. The other is prospect Endy Rodríguez, who was optioned to Triple-A last week. If Plawecki in indeed added, it’s possible that Jarlín García is headed for the 60-day IL, as he’s been shut down for the next four to five weeks with a nerve injury in his biceps area and won’t be able to return until May at the earliest.

Rangers: C Sandy León, LHP Danny Duffy and RHP Ian Kennedy

León, 34, is generally regarded as a glove-first option behind the plate. Last year, he split his time between the Guardians and Twins, hitting .169/.298/.211. For his career, he’s racked up 34 Defensive Runs Saved and has positive framing numbers from FanGraphs.

The Rangers have three catchers on their 40-man roster in Jonah Heim, Mitch Garver and Sam Huff. León might have a better path to playing time elsewhere, as multiple clubs around the league are dealing with injuries to their catching corps. Carson Kelly of the Diamondbacks was recently diagnosed with a forearm fracture, leaving them with youngsters Gabriel Moreno and José Herrera as their top two. The Athletics only have two catchers on their roster right now and one of them, Manny Piña, will open the season on the injured list.

Duffy, 34, spent years as an effective starter for the Royals, currently sporting a 3.95 career ERA in 234 games. However, he hasn’t pitched July of 2021, when a flexor strain in his forearm sent him to the IL. The Dodgers acquired him from the Royals, hoping for a return to health in the second half, but he suffered a setback. He then underwent surgery but the Dodgers took a chance on him again, signing him to a $3MM deal with a club option for 2023 and hoping for a return late in 2022. He never made it back to the mound and the Dodgers declined his option at season’s end. General manager Chris Young listed Duffy as a closer candidate in January, but he’s yet to appear in a game this spring.

Kennedy, 38, had an effective half season of relief with the Rangers in 2021, posting a 2.51 ERA before getting flipped to the Phillies. He had a 4.13 ERA after the deal and then slumped to a 5.36 mark with the Diamondbacks last year. The club doesn’t currently have an obvious candidate to put on the 60-day IL, which could work against Kennedy’s chances of cracking the roster.

Rays: IF/OF Charlie Culberson and OF Ben Gamel

Culberson, 34 next month, is a veteran journeyman who brings much defensive versatility to the table. He’s played every position except catcher and center field in his career. With the Rangers last year, he hit .252/.283/.357 for a wRC+ of 81.

Gamel, 31 in May, was with the Pirates last year and hit .232/.324/.369 for a wRC+ of 97. He’s had modest platoon splits for his career but they were exaggerated last year. The left-handed hitter slashed .252/.342/.409 against righties for a wRC+ of 112 but just .175/.273/.258 against southpaws for a wRC+ of 56.

The Rays have a tight roster and spent most of the winter making cuts from it, which could make it tough for either of these players to make it. But if either played is deemed worthy, Shane Baz is destined for the 60-day IL soon due to his Tommy John rehab, making it easy to open a spot for someone.

Reds: OF Chad Pinder, RHP Chase Anderson and RHP Hunter Strickland

Pinder, 31 next week, has spent his entire career with the Athletics until reaching free agency this winter. He’s a super utility guy, able to play anywhere on the field but catcher. He’s didn’t have his best season last year, walking just 3.7% of the time and striking out at a 31.1% clip, but his career batting line is a serviceable .242/.294/.417 for a wRC+ of 96.

Anderson, 35, had some good years on his track record but hasn’t been able to post an ERA under 6.00 since 2019. He got into nine games for the Reds last year with a 6.38 ERA. He was recently transferred from minor league camp to major league camp, suggesting he has a legitimate chance at earning a job.

Strickland, 34, had some good years with the Giants but has gone into journeyman mode recently. He made 66 appearances with the Reds last year, finishing with a 4.91 ERA while walking 11.6% of batters faced.

The Reds should be able to open a roster spot by transferring Justin Dunn to the 60-day IL, as he’s going to be out for a few months with a shoulder issue.

Rockies: IF Mike Moustakas

Moustakas, 34, had many good years with the Royals and Brewers but his four-year deal with the Reds didn’t go very well. He was fine in the shortened 2020 season but largely injured and ineffective for the past two years. He got into 78 contests last year but hit just .214/.295/.345.

Moving his home to Coors Field could give him a boost if he’s healthy. The Rockies could use help at third base after second baseman Brendan Rodgers suffered a potentially season-ending injury. The club’s plan is to move Ryan McMahon from third to second, freeing up the hot corner for someone like Moustakas.

Opening up a spot should be straightforward, with Rodgers and Sean Bouchard both set to miss extensive time and easy calls to be placed on the 60-day IL.

Royals: OF Jackie Bradley Jr. and IF Matt Duffy

Bradley, 33 next month, has long been an excellent defender with an okay bat, but his offense has been awful for the past two seasons. Last year, splitting his time between the Red Sox and Blue Jays, he hit .203/.255/.311 for a wRC+ of 56.

Duffy, 32, is a versatile utility player who can cover any infield position and has some limited corner outfield experience. He’s not coming off a great year at the plate, as he hit .250/.308/.311 with the Angels for a wRC+ of 78, but he’s had better results in the past.

The Royals optioned a few notable position players earlier today, potentially open the door for these two and Franmil Reyes to make the Opening Day squad. They can open up one 40-man roster spot by moving Jake Brentz to the 60-day IL, as he’ll be rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but finding two more spots will require alternative solutions.

Tigers: IF César Hernández and RHP Trevor Rosenthal

Hernández, 33 in May, is primarily a second baseman who is coming off a bizarre power surge and then a blackout. He had never hit more than 15 home runs in a season until he hit 21 in 2021, but then he had just a single homer last year. His final batting line with the Nats last year was .248/.311/.318, wRC+ of 79. Assuming Nick Maton is taking the third base job in Detroit, Hernández is competing for a bench spot along with players like Zack Short, Andre Lipcius and Andy Ibañez.

Rosenthal, 33 in May, has occasionally been one of the best relievers on the planet, including his 2020 campaign. He posted a 1.90 ERA over 23 appearances, striking out 41.8% of batters he faced. However, various injuries have prevented him from pitching at all in the past two seasons. He recently spoke about how he may not be ready for Opening Day but is happy with his rehab process with the Tigers. It’s possible he forgoes his opt out in order to continue his work with the training staff.

The club doesn’t have an obvious 60-day IL candidate and they might also want to add non-roster invitees like Chasen Shreve or Trey Wingenter, creating a bit of a roster squeeze.

Twins: RHP Aaron Sanchez

Sanchez, 30, had an excellent season back in 2016, posting an ERA of 3.00 over 30 starts with the Blue Jays. Unfortunately, injuries have diminished his workload and results in recent years. He had a 6.60 ERA in 15 appearances for the Nationals and Twins last year.

He twice accepted outright assignments with the Twins last year and then re-signed on a minor league deal in the winter. He doesn’t seem to have a path to a roster spot at the moment but seems to be comfortable with the organization. He’ll soon have a chance to return to the open market but the relationship is good enough for him to stick around.

White Sox: IF Hanser Alberto and OF Billy Hamilton

Alberto, 30, is a light-hitting utility option. He spent last year with the Dodgers, spending time at all four infield positions in addition to some corner outfield work. He hit .244/.258/.365 for a wRC+ of 73. He was signed to bolster Chicago’s uncertain second base position, but that was before they solidified it by adding Elvis Andrus.

Hamilton, 32, has long been one of the game’s best defenders in the outfield and speediest baserunners. However, hit bat has always lagged behind. He got into 37 games between the Marlins and Twins last year but hit .050/.136/.050. His career batting line is .239/.292/.326 for a wRC+ of 66. The club came into spring with a question mark in right field but it seems like prospect Oscar Colás is trending towards taking that job.

Padres Notes: Soto, Nola, Pomeranz

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Padres manager Bob Melvin spoke today with reporters, including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, regarding the status of superstar outfielder Juan Soto, who was pulled from a minor league spring training game on Sunday thanks to a mild left oblique strain. Melvin noted that Soto is set to undergo an MRI, but reaffirmed the club’s belief that the injury is a mild one, and noted that a return to action in time for Opening Day next week is not out of the question.

That’s about as good of news as Padres fans can get ahead of an MRI, as any absence from Soto would be a serious blow for a Padres club that will already play the first twenty games of its season without fellow phenom Fernando Tatis Jr. while he completes his suspension for PED usage. That being said, even if Soto were to begin the season on the injured list, the club would still be set to run out a star-studded roster on Opening Day that includes the likes of Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish, and Josh Hader.

In the event that Soto does miss time, the likes of Jose Azocar and Adam Engel could benefit in terms of playing time as long as he is out. If Soto were to miss enough time that Tatis returns before him, it seems reasonable to expect that Matt Carpenter, currently slated to play right field while Tatis is suspended, would slide over to left to cover for the remainder of Soto’s absence.

More from Padres camp…

  • Acee also notes that catcher Austin Nola, who suffered a fractured nose after getting hit in the face with a pitch on Sunday, is expected to return to the field tomorrow for “light work”, with an Opening Day start behind the plate still on the table. Nola, a solid bat-first catcher coming off his first below average offensive season (89 wRC+ in 110 games) in 2022, figures to be the club’s starting catcher this year. San Diego is fortunate to have a quality backup in the form of Luis Campusano should Nola miss any time. If Nola requires a brief stint on the injured list, Brett Sullivan stands to back up as the only other catcher on the 40-man roster unless the Padres decide to make a 40-man roster move to accommodate a non-roster invitee such as Pedro Severino.
  • In less fortunate injury news, Dennis Lin of The Athletic notes that lefty reliever Drew Pomeranz is set to miss opening day after feeling some inflammation in his elbow. Pomeranz has been excellent for the Padres when healthy, posting a sterling 1.62 ERA over the past two seasons, but this latest setback adds to the 34 year old’s lengthy injury history that led him to pitch just 44 1/3 innings in that same timeframe. Fortunately for San Diego, Josh Hader and Robert Suarez are certainly a capable tandem for late-inning duties to open the season.

Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

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The Padres have been extremely aggressive in recent years, taking their payroll to levels it’s never reached before. It finally paid off in 2022, as the club made the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2006. They doubled down on that aggression this winter, signing multiple free agents and locking up a couple of players with notable extensions.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $68.7MM
Total spending: $407.2MM

Option Decisions

  • RHP Robert Suarez opted out of one year and $5MM remaining on contract for $1MM buyout, later re-signed
  • OF Jurickson Profar opted out of one year and $7.5MM remaining on contract for $1MM buyout
  • Club declined $20MM option on OF Wil Myers in favor of $1MM buyout
  • RHP Nick Martinez opted out of three years and $18MM remaining on contract for $1.5MM buyout, later re-signed

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Going into the 2018 season, the Padres decided it was time for change. It had been over a decade since their last trip to the postseason and they had never been huge players in free agency. They started to flip that narrative by signing first baseman Eric Hosmer to an eight-year, $144MM contract. That deal didn’t end up going well, but it nonetheless sent the message that the club meant business. That was followed up with the club signing Manny Machado and extending Fernando Tatis Jr., as well as trading for players like Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell.

Despite all those bold moves, the club still found ways to struggle. Though they qualified for the postseason in the expanded field of the shortened 2020 campaign, they finished below .500 in each 162-game season from 2011 to 2021. Things finally clicked in 2022, with the Padres stealing all the headlines at the trade deadline by acquiring Juan Soto, Josh Hader and Brandon Drury. It resulted in the club finishing 89-73 and grabbing a Wild Card spot. They knocked off heavyweight teams like the Mets and the Dodgers before ultimately falling to the Phillies in the NLCS.

Though they finally broke through and had the success that long eluded them, the club quickly made it clear that they had little interest in taking their foot off the gas as they continue their pursuit of a World Series title. The first order of business was retaining a few in-house players. Robert Suarez and Nick Martinez each opted out of their respective contracts to become free agents. Within a few days, they were already back in the fold on eight-figure guarantees. Suarez was excellent in 2022, but it was his first in the majors at the age of 31 after many years in Japan. It was a somewhat similar situation for Martinez, who was also 31 and had been in Japan for three years following a rough MLB stint from 2014-17. The fact that the club made such large guarantees to relatively unproven pitchers signaled that they would have few financial obstacles in their path this winter.

From there, the Friars set their sights on a big splash. They reportedly offered both Trea Turner and Aaron Judge larger guarantees than they eventually accepted from the Phillies and Yankees, respectively. That’s not to say that either player turned up their nose at a chance of joining the Padres, as Turner seemingly preferred to be on the East Coast while Judge preferred to remain a Yankee for life.

After missing on two big swings, the club finally connected on the star signing they sought with Xander Bogaerts. The deal shattered most predictions, including ours. MLBTR pegged Bogaerts for a seven-year, $189MM deal, but he ended up soaring past that both in terms of the years and the guarantee. It was also surprising to see the Padres pursue a shortstop, as that didn’t seem to be their primary need. Ha-Seong Kim had a fine season replacing Fernando Tatis Jr., who missed all of 2022 due to injuries and an 80-game PED suspension. Tatis still has 20 games left on that but should be back in action early in 2023. The fact that the club initially set its sights on Judge perhaps indicates there was a chance Tatis could stick at short, but the acquisition of Bogaerts also showed they weren’t committed to letting him retake his spot there.

With Bogaerts now set to take over at the club’s everyday shortstop, Kim will get pushed over to second, nudging Jake Cronenworth to first. That will leave Tatis in the outfield, alongside Soto and Trent Grisham. That reduced the need for a big splash in the outfield, but the club did bolster their options on the grass by signing Matt Carpenter and Adam Engel. The latter is a glove-first option that was non-tendered by the White Sox and should make for a solid fourth outfielder. The former was awful from 2019 to 2021 but rebounded tremendously last year. He re-emerged with the Yankees and was one of the best hitters on the planet for a stretch before a foot fracture slowed him down. He finished the year with 15 home runs in just 47 games and a batting line of .305/.412/.727, wRC+ of 217. He played the four corner positions last year and could do so again, though the eventual return of Tatis should diminish the need for him to take any outfield reps.

All of this shuffling is necessary to get Bogaerts into the shortstop position and, more importantly, his bat into the lineup. Over the past five seasons, Bogaerts has hit 105 home runs and slashed .300/.373/.507 for a wRC+ of 134. That latter number places him in the top 20 among all qualified hitters in the league. He’s been remarkably consistent, keeping that figure between 129 and 141 in each of those five campaigns. His defense has been a little less consistent, but he did get positive grades from all three of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average last year. The Padres made a significant investment to get a deal done, but there’s every reason to expect they got a premier player for it.

With Bogaerts in hand, the next stage of the offseason continued to be busy, though at a lesser tier of free agency. Though they had retained Martinez, the rotation was still in need of bolstering with the departures of Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger. Offseason rumors suggested that clubs were interested in Seth Lugo as a starter, despite the fact that he’s been pitching out of the Mets’ bullpen for the past few years. The Padres decided to be the team to give Lugo that shot, signing him in mid-December. Lugo has been a fine reliever but is generally pretty unproven in the rotation. The last time he made more than seven starts in a season was back in 2017.

After that Lugo deal, the Padres had a front-loaded rotation. It was headlined by three great hurlers in Musgrove, Darvish and Snell, but they were followed by two unestablished starters in Lugo and Martinez. They decided to add some security as the offseason went along, eventually adding Michael Wacha, who posted a solid 3.32 ERA last year. He’s no sure thing either, as recurring shoulder issues have prevented him from tossing 130 innings in a season since 2017. But the Friars also added a few strands to the safety net by bringing in Brent Honeywell Jr., Wilmer Font, Cole Hamels and Julio Teheran. Those extra options will likely be important all season long, even in the beginning, as Musgrove recently fractured a toe and seems likely to miss a couple of starts.

The lineup was also in a good place, with Bogaerts joining Soto and Machado as the key threats. The Padres would go on to add some complementary pieces in Carpenter, Engel and then Nelson Cruz. It’s been a rough stretch for Cruz lately, as he struggled with the Rays at the end of 2021 and then hit just .234/.313/.337 for the Nats last year. Given that he’s now 42 years old, it would be fair to wonder if his age was finally catching up with him. However, Cruz underwent eye surgery in the offseason, telling reporters that some inflammation has been blocking his vision over the past year and a half. Perhaps he can bounce back, perhaps not, but the Padres only put down $1MM to find out. If the gamble pays off, it will add yet another potent bat into the mix.

With the calendar showing February and the roster looking fairly set, the focus shifted to long-term concerns. The rotation had some uncertainty over the horizon, as both Darvish and Snell were slated for free agency after 2023. Lugo, Wacha and Martinez also aren’t guaranteed to be back next season, as all three of them either have options or opt-outs that could potentially result in them returning to free agency. That left Musgrove as the only starter locked in for 2024, so the Padres decided to get a bit more clarity by extending Darvish. The deal was surprising in that it came out of nowhere, but also in its length. Darvish is already 36 and his new deal will run past his 42nd birthday. It seems likely that this is a tactic to reduce the club’s competitive balance tax calculation.

We’ll circle back to that CBT conversation in a moment, but the Padres weren’t done with the extensions just yet. Manny Machado still had six years remaining on his ten-year deal, but he had an opt-out opportunity coming up at the end of 2023. Given that he had an MVP-caliber season last year and the new Collective Bargaining Agreement had seemingly improved the free agent market for players, Machado would have been justified in heading back to the open market. He was quite open about his intent to do, but the Padres decided they didn’t want to see that happen and locked him in with a new 11-year, $350MM deal. Since Machado already had six years and $180MM in hand, this tacked on five years and $170MM to prevent him from departing.

This new era of aggressive spending for the Padres has resulted in the club paying the luxury tax in each of the past two years. Their continued spending this year will result in them paying for a third straight season and that will come with elevated tax rates. A third-time payor faces a 50% tax for any spending over the lowest threshold, which is $233MM this year. That jumps to 62% over the $253MM tier and 95% over the $273MM tier. It was reported about a month ago that the Padres were narrowly below that third tier, but that was before the Machado extension came down. His new deal bumped his AAV from $30MM to $31.81MM, perhaps nudging them over that line. If they can manage to get back under the $273MM figure, they’ll avoid the unwelcome penalty of having their top pick in the 2024 draft pushed back 10 spots.

Regardless of which side of that threshold the Padres ultimately fall, it seems the lengthy deals are an attempt to at least moderately mitigate their CBT hits, for this year and the future. As mentioned, the Darvish extension will run past his 42nd birthday, while Bogaerts and Machado will each turn 41 in the final seasons of their respective deals. The annual values on the Bogaerts and Darvish deals, in particular, are lower than the per-year market rate for players of this caliber. Time will tell whether subsequent extensions might follow; the team is reportedly interested in extending both Soto and Hader.

Ultimately, these are all footnotes to the larger story of owner Peter Seidler deciding that he didn’t want the Padres to be a small-market team anymore. The Friars are currently third in the league in terms of both pure payroll and CBT, with only the two New York clubs ahead of them. It’s already resulted in one trip to the NLCS, and the hope is for even more to come. When asked if his spending was sustainable, Seidler told Bob Nightengale of USA Today, he preferred a different question. “Do I believe our parade is going to be on land or on water or on boat?”

How would you grade the Padres’ offseason? (Link to poll)

How would you grade the Padres' offseason?
A 60.66% (1,724 votes)
B 27.94% (794 votes)
C 5.95% (169 votes)
F 3.80% (108 votes)
D 1.65% (47 votes)
Total Votes: 2,842

In conjunction with the Padres’ offseason review, we hosted a Padres-focused chat on March 21. You can click here to read the transcript.

Juan Soto Day-To-Day With Mild Oblique Strain

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Juan Soto suffered what the Padres described as a mild left oblique strain during a minor league game today.  Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears from a team source that the the Padres are being “careful” with the injury and that the removal was precautionary, which is naturally understandable given the risk involved in any oblique injury.

For now, Soto is listed as day-to-day, and the outfielder is sure to undergo a battery of tests to investigate the exact nature of the problem.  While oblique injuries can vary greatly in severity, it’s rare to see a player suffer even a small strain (or less than a Grade 1 type of strain) and not miss any time whatsoever.  It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Padres place Soto on the injured list as a further precaution, just to give him an extra 10 days (at minimum) at the start of the season to both get healthy and to get fully ramped up.

Soto was limited earlier in Spring Training by a minor calf problem and he only just returned to San Diego’s camp after playing with the Dominican Republic’s team in the World Baseball Classic.  Soto was on fire during WBC play and during his limited Spring Training action, so he might not need a lot of time to get ready once he is healthy.  However, Acee notes that Soto was playing in the minor league game in order to get some extra work in following his WBC stint.

Losing Soto for any amount of time obviously isn’t ideal for the Padres, especially considering that the team has already been visited by the injury bug during camp.  Joe Musgrove is expected to miss at least his first two start of the season due to a fractured toe, Adrian Morejon is likely also IL-bound due to elbow inflammation, and just earlier today, Austin Nola suffered a possible broken nose after being hit in the face with a pitch.

Adam Engel was slowed by a calf injury earlier in Spring Training, but he is on pace to be ready for Opening Day and possibly for a larger slice of playing time if Soto is sidelined.  Jose Azocar and minor league signing David Dahl could now both make the team, and join with Matt Carpenter (projected for right field duty) and starting center fielder Trent Grisham in the Padres’ outfield mix.  Fernando Tatis Jr. will also join this group and take over a starting role, but not until he serves the final 20 games of his PED suspension.

A number of other non-roster invitees (i.e. Rangel Ravelo, Tim Lopes, Alfonso Rivas, Max Schrock, Preston Tucker, Brandon Dixon, Luis Liberato) have varying levels of MLB experience and at least some experience in the outfield, so they could also factor into San Diego’s plans.  The Padres could also certainly add to this group with other minor league signings or perhaps a higher-level trade in the event that Soto’s oblique strain is more severe than it seems.

Austin Nola Leaves Game After Being Hit By Pitch In The Face

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Padres catcher Austin Nola suffered a scary injury during today’s Cactus League game, as he was hit in the face by an errant Michael Fulmer pitch.  Nola was carted off the field, though he was able to get up under his own power.  Padres manager Bob Melvin suggested to reporters (including Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that Nola suffered a broken nose given the circumstances, but no official word has come from the team about the nature of the injury.

With just 11 days until Opening Day, it certainly looks as if the Padres will be missing their starting catcher for at least the beginning of the regular season.  Nola was still projected to get the majority of playing time behind the plate this season, though former top prospect Luis Campusano (who was himself set back with a hamstring injury this spring) is slated for at least the backup role, and the Padres would surely be pleased if Campusano plays himself into a timeshare of catching duties.

With Nola now facing the injured list, however, Campusano might be the starter by default as the season opens.  Brett Sullivan is also on the Padres’ 40-man roster but non-roster invitee Pedro Severino has MLB experience and would likely get the nod as the replacement in the event of Nola’s absence.

Acquired from the Mariners at the 2020 trade deadline, Nola has hit .254/.327/.348 over 665 plate appearances and 185 games in a Padres uniform, translating to a 95 OPS+.  He also missed a big chunk of the 2021 season due to finger, thumb, and knee injuries, resulting in only 56 games during the 2021 campaign.  Public defensive metrics were also very down on Nola’s glovework in 2022, with Statcast and Fangraphs each giving him subpar framing grades, as well as minus-6 Defensive Runs Saved.

The always-aggressive Padres explored the idea of signing Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez during the offseason, before opting to stand pat with their catching corps apart from Severino’s minor league deal.  It stands to reason that San Diego could be actively seeking out more catching help in the coming days, whether that comes in the trade market, or in pursuing any free agents who may soon be available due to end-of-camp roster cuts or veterans opting out of their minor league contracts.

Injury Notes: Blackburn, Pina, Morejon, Garcia, Szapucki

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The A’s will open the season with both starter Paul Blackburn and catcher Manny Piña on the injured list, manager Mark Kotsay told reporters this afternoon (link via Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). Blackburn still can’t throw at full strength after ripping the nail on his middle finger a couple weeks ago. Piña, meanwhile, was diagnosed with left wrist inflammation after meeting with a specialist yesterday. His wrist is currently in a brace and there’s no timetable for his return to baseball activity.

Neither development comes as a surprise. Kotsay said a few days ago both players were questionable for Opening Day. Blackburn’s absence doesn’t figure to be a long-term concern but will require an adjustment to the starting five. Blackburn would have been assured of an Opening Day rotation spot, joining Drew Rucinski and Shintaro Fujinami in that regard. James Kaprielian seems as if he’ll join them, as Kotsay indicated today the righty is on track to be ready for the season after offseason shoulder surgery. The A’s will need to make a move at catcher in the next two weeks, as Shea Langeliers is the only healthy backstop on the 40-man roster.

More injury updates around the game:

  • Padres southpaw Adrián Morejón went for an MRI after departing a weekend Spring Training game with elbow discomfort. Manager Bob Melvin provided a generally positive update this afternoon, telling the media that Morejón’s MRI came back clean of structural damage (video provided by 97.3 FM The Fan). Imaging did reveal some inflammation in the joint and the young hurler will be shut down from throwing until symptoms subside. That could be within a matter of days, according to Melvin. While Morejón may still need to open the season on the 15-day injured list, that there’s no structural damage warrants a sigh of relief considering his injury history. He lost most of 2021 and the first half of last season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The Friars used Morejón exclusively out of the bullpen last year. They’ve floated the possibility of moving him back to the rotation at some point, though it remains to be seen if his latest elbow discomfort will affect the club’s usage plan.
  • The Pirates announced last week that reliever Jarlín García was being shut down after experiencing some discomfort in his throwing arm. Director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk provided an update yesterday, telling reporters the southpaw has a nerve injury in the biceps area (via Justice delos Santos of MLB.com). He’ll remain shut down from throwing for at least four to five weeks before going for more testing late next month. It’s clear García is in for an extended absence to start the season, as even a best-case scenario in which he can start throwing again in mid-April will require a ramp-up period lasting into May. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Pittsburgh place him on the 60-day injured list at some point. García signed a $2.5MM free agent deal over the winter after being non-tendered by the Giants despite a 3.74 ERA in 65 innings last season.
  • Giants reliever Thomas Szapucki will meet with a thoracic outlet syndrome specialist next week, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. He’d been sidelined of late by discomfort in his elbow area and there’s evidently some concern it’s related to the condition. Thoracic outlet syndrome has become a fairly prevalent issue for pitchers in recent years, typically requiring a surgical procedure that involves the removal of a rib to reduce nerve pressure in the arm. The track record for players returning from that issue is mixed. While players like Merrill Kelly have come back better than ever, the likes of Stephen Strasburg and Matt Harvey have never regained their pre-surgery form.

Diamond Sports Planning To File For Bankruptcy; MLB Planning To Stream Games For Free Temporarily

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Diamond Sports Group, the corporation that owns 14 Bally Sports regional sports networks, is expected to file for bankruptcy March 17, according to a report from Josh Kosman of The New York Post. The timeline will be awkward for Major League Baseball since the 2023 season opens on March 30, but the league plans to step in and broadcast the games themselves.

It had been reported for some time that Diamond is in financial trouble and they forewent interest payments worth roughly $140MM to creditors last month. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said at that time that the league was monitoring the situation, hoping that Diamond would make its payments but also drawing up contingency plans. It was subsequently reported that the league had hired multiple former RSN executives for a newly-created Local Media department, seemingly to get in position to take over broadcasting duties where necessary.

The problem stems from continued cord-cutting as fewer customers are paying for cable bundles these days, opting instead to use streaming services. That leads to decreased revenue from ad sales and cable contracts, creating situations where RSNs are paying teams more for rights fees than they are able to make back from those revenue streams. Per Kosman’s report, there are at least four teams where Diamond plans to reject the contracts via the bankruptcy proceedings. The teams in question are the Reds, Diamondbacks, Guardians and Padres, with the San Diego deal currently $20MM in the red on an annual basis.

The report goes on to state that MLB’s plan is to take over the local TV broadcasts of those teams, as well as streaming them for free in those local markets as they negotiate lower deals with cable companies. It’s not yet clear if fans in blacked-out markets would be able to access those streams in the short-term. If deals are reached, the league plans to offer over-the-top service for around $15 per month. As Kosman notes, that’s lower than some other streaming deals, with the Red Sox charging $29.99 per month. The league also already tried to acquire the rights to all 14 teams currently controlled by Diamond but were turned down. Those clubs are the Angels, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Marlins, Padres, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Royals, Tigers, and Twins.

A similar situation has arisen with Warner Bros. Discovery, which owns AT&T SportsNet and is a minority owner of Root Sports. It was reported last month that Warner was planning to get out of the RSN business, which would have implications for the Rockies, Astros and Pirates, though not the Mariners. Warner only owns 40% of Root Sports Seattle with the Mariners owning the other 60%. Kosman’s report indicates the league plans to take over those broadcasts eventually as well, though not by Opening Day.

This is a fluid situation and many of the details are still being worked out, but it’s possible there is a sea change approaching in how Major League Baseball delivers its broadcasts to its fans. Most out-of-market games are available to paying subscribers via MLB TV, though these RSN deals have always taken precedent, leading to blackouts that prevent fans from watching their local club on the platform. Many fans have been critical of the way these blackouts are applied, with some subscribers saying that their home is covered by various overlapping blackout areas. The people of Iowa, for instance, have often complained that they can’t watch games featuring the Cubs, White Sox, Cardinals, Twins, Royals or Brewers. That’s an extreme example but highlights the sorts of issues with the current system. Manfred has expressed a desire to move to a new system that would allow customers to purchase broadcasts regardless of where they are, though it’s unclear how long it would take to get such a model in place.

Whenever that new system is in place, it will also have implications for the finances for teams. These RSN deals have long been a significant source of club revenue that seems to now be drying up. Streaming will present new revenues sources, of course, and already has. The league has previously agreed to lucrative deals with streaming platforms like Apple and NBC and may strike other deals in the future.

For now, it seems the immediate concern is making sure that the broadcasts for the 2023 season are maintained. Kosman reports that the league plans to retain current local announcers for any broadcasts that it takes over and it doesn’t seem as though there are any current concerns of games being missed. Assuming the league is successful in all of these plans, it’s possible that fans won’t notice much difference in their baseball consumption here this year, but the field may be wide open for changes down the line.

Adrián Morejón To Undergo MRI After Experiencing Arm Discomfort

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Padres left-hander Adrián Morejón will undergo an MRI this week, reports AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. The lefty had departed yesterday’s game with discomfort above his elbow.

Until that MRI takes place and a diagnosis is reached, it won’t be known if Morejón needs to miss time or how much. For now, it’s a concerning development for both the pitcher and the club. Morejón was once one of the top prospects in the league, with Baseball America featuring him on their top 100 list in five straight seasons from 2017 to 2021. Unfortunately, he’s been slowed down by injuries since then, most significantly Tommy John surgery in 2021.

Morejón was able to return to the mound with the Padres last year, though they kept him in the bullpen. He tossed 34 innings over 26 appearances, as well as another 13 1/3 frames in the minors, bringing his season tally to 47 1/3. The club was hoping to have him continue as a starter this year, now that he’s further removed from that surgery.

The Padres assembled a rotation this winter that was fairly deep but came with some question marks. The front three of Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell were going to be followed by Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo. Wacha had a nice season in 2022 but has dealt with recurring shoulder issues and hasn’t reached the 130-inning mark in a season since 2017. Martinez and Lugo, meanwhile, were each going to attempt to hold down rotation roles despite more recent success as relievers.

There was already some uncertainty in that group to begin with, which was going to make pitching depth an important factor for the Padres. That was only exacerbated when Musgrove recently suffered a fractured toe during a weight room accident. He’s expected to miss at least a couple of turns through the rotation to begin the season, which will thin out the club’s depth for a while.

The Padres once seemed like they would open the season with a six-man rotation prior to that injury. It’s possible that Musgrove’s injury changed those plans, or perhaps they could have turned to one of their depth options. Morejón would have been firmly in the mix for such a job, alongside pitchers like Jay Groome, Julio Teheran, Brent Honeywell Jr., Ryan Weathers, Reiss Knehr and Pedro Avila.

Any significant injury would take Morejón out of the running for the time being, but it will depend upon what the imaging reveals. The 24-year-old wasn’t set to be an essential member of the club’s staff but the Padres surely don’t want to subtract from their depth, especially given the question marks in their rotation. Any kind of setback would also no doubt be frustrating for Morejón on a personal level since he’s missed so much time already. Despite having just 42 major league appearances under his belt, he’s racked up over three years of MLB service time, much of that spent on the injured list. He reached arbitration for the first time this winter and will make $800K this year. He’s slated for two more passes through arbitration before reaching free agency after 2025, though he still has options and could see that timeline pushed back if he’s sent down to the minors for a meaningful stretch of time at any point.

Craig Stammen “Highly Unlikely” To Pitch Again Following Shoulder Injury

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Padres reliever Craig Stammen suffered a torn capsule in his right shoulder and strained sub scapula Friday, as reported by the San Diego Union Tribune’s Kevin Acee. Stammen, who just celebrated his 39th birthday, acknowledged that his “playing days are probably over,” though it seems Stammen and the club have not decided whether or not to pursue surgery. The longtime Padres right-hander was in camp on a minor league deal this spring.

Stammen was a 12th round pick by the Washington Nationals in the 2005 draft and began his career as a starter with the Nats back in 2009. In two seasons as a starter, Stammen struggled to a 5.12 ERA that was 19% below league average, causing the Nationals to move him to the bullpen. Stammen flourished in this role, as he posted a strong 2.80 ERA (138 ERA+) backed by a solid 3.12 FIP in 257 innings of work from 2011-2015 following his move to the bullpen. Unfortunately, his 2015 season ended in April with flexor tendon surgery, and Stammen would not return to the big leagues until 2017, when he joined the Padres.

In six years as a member of the Padres bullpen, Stammen largely pitched well en route to becoming the longest-tenured player on the major league roster. In addition to his 394 1/3 innings of 3.36 ERA ball, he was frequently cited as a leader and mentor in the clubhouse and beloved throughout the organization. Stammen began to struggle in 2022, however, as he posted a 4.43 ERA that was 15% below league average in addition to suffering a torn rotator cuff last season that sat him down for two months. This new injury has a recovery time of 4-6 months, and surgery would require an even lengthier rehab process.

Despite losing Stammen for, at bare minimum, the first half of the 2023 campaign, the Padres relief corps still appears set up well for success headed into 2023, with Drew Pomeranz and Robert Suarez joining closer Josh Hader at the back of San Diego’s bullpen. As previously mentioned, Stammen was in camp on a minor league contract and was far from a lock to make the Opening Day roster as he competed with the likes of Jose Lopez, Michel Baez, and Steven Wilson for a roster spot.

That Stammen is considering retirement following his latest injury is understandable given this the second severe injury the righty has suffered in just the last few months, particularly without a clear path to big league playing time upon his return. That said, even staring down the possibility of being unable to pitch competitively until his age-40 season, Stammen has not entirely closed the door on attempting a comeback, noting to reporters, “At this point today, I can’t imagine myself as not a baseball player… hopefully they’ll let me rehab for a little while.”

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