Giants In Discussions With Alex Cobb
The Giants are in talks with free-agent righty Alex Cobb and appear to be making a “strong push” to sign the veteran righty, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link). Cobb is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.
If a deal is indeed finalized, Cobb would fill one of four rotation vacancies for a San Francisco club that saw each of Kevin Gausman, Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani and Johnny Cueto reach free agency at season’s end.
The 34-year-old Cobb had something of a resurgence with the Angels last season after being acquired in an offseason deal that sent minor league infielder Jahmai Jones to Baltimore. Injuries still hampered Cobb — as has oft been the case in his career — with a wrist issue and blisters combining to limit him to 93 1/3 frames. However, when healthy, Cobb was the best he’s been in years, pitching to a 3.76 ERA with a 24.9% strikeout rate, an 8.4% walk rate and a huge 53.3% ground-ball rate.
In fact, in some regards, the 2021 season was Cobb’s best as a big leaguer. While the workload wasn’t as large as he or the Angels would’ve liked, Cobb posted career-best marks in strikeout percentage, swinging-strike rate (11.2%) and opponents’ chase rate (34.6%).
That 2021 output marked a stark turnaround for Cobb, who pitched just 217 total innings during three years with the Orioles after signing a four-year, $57MM contract in advance of the 2018 campaign — the final major acquisition from Baltimore before the eventual housecleaning and rebuild process got underway that summer. Given that Cobb’s last run through free agency lingered until Spring Training was well underway, it makes sense that he’d push for an earlier deal a second time around. Both Cobb and the Angels had publicly expressed interest in a reunion, but that looks decidedly unlikely now.
As alluded to above, Cobb would be just one of many pieces needed to complete a wide-open starting pitching puzzle at Oracle Park. In addition to the quartet of open spots behind homegrown star Logan Webb, Cobb has reached 100 innings in just two of the past seven seasons. While any team signing Cobb would surely hope for better health, it’s not something that can be banked upon given a laundry list of physical ailments that have piled up in recent years.
From a payroll vantage point, the Giants ought to have little issue adding Cobb into the fold. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects a $97MM payroll at present, and Cobb should command a good bit less than the $14.25MM annual salary he received on that last contract with the Orioles. MLBTR ranked Cobb 39th on our Top 50 Free Agent list, pegging for a two-year, $16MM contract.
Giants Select Three Players, Designate Jay Jackson For Assignment
The Giants have selected outfielder Heliot Ramos and right-handers Sean Hjelle and Randy Rodriguez to the 40-man roster. The moves keep them from being eligible for the Rule 5 draft. To create roster space, San Francisco designated reliever Jay Jackson for assignment and returned Rule 5 pick Dedniel Nuñez to the Mets.
Ramos is among the better prospects in baseball, entering the 2021 campaign as Baseball America’s #83 overall farmhand. A first-round pick out of Puerto Rico in 2017, the right-handed hitting Ramos has compensated for a lot of swing-and-miss by hitting for a lot of power. He’s regarded as a potential above-average everyday right fielder and hit .254/.323/.416 with 14 homers in 495 plate appearances between Double-A Richmond and Triple-A Sacramento.
Hjelle was a second-rounder out of the University of Kentucky in 2018. The big righty draws praise for his deception and control, but his minor league track record has been mixed. The 24-year-old dominated in the low minors but has run into some trouble at the higher levels, particularly in Triple-A. BA ranks him eleventh in system and calls him a potential back-end starter.
Rodriguez, 22, is a former amateur signee out of the Dominican Republic. Working exclusively as a reliever, he pitched to a sterling 1.74 ERA with a huge 39.1% strikeout rate and a fine 8.9% walk percentage over 62 innings with Low-A Augusta. Rodriguez has never appeared on an organizational ranking at FanGraphs or BA.
San Francisco’s decision to DFA Jackson comes as a bit of a surprise, considering the club just exercised a 2022 option on his services a few weeks back. Signed to a minors pact in January, the 34-year-old Jackson made the big league club in July and worked 21 2/3 frames down the stretch. He struck out a strong 31.1% of opposing hitters in that time, although he also handed out free passes at an alarming 13.3% clip.
Nuñez never appeared in a regular season game with the Giants. Selected out of the New York organization in last year’s Rule 5 draft, he suffered an elbow injury in Spring Training and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery. He’ll return to the Mets but won’t occupy a 40-man roster spot.
Latest On Starling Marte’s Market
We’ve seen an unusual number of high-profile free agents come off the board in the first few weeks of November, though they’ve all been pitchers to this point. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman suggests, however, that the market for Starling Marte is strong enough that he could also sign this month, prior to the Dec. 1 expiration of the collective bargaining agreement.
That the 33-year-old Marte would command robust interest is only logical, given his longstanding track record and a brilliant 2021 campaign. While he’s a older than your typical free agent thanks to the club-friendly contract he inked early in his career, Marte has shown no signs of slowing down. To the contrary, his 2021 season was arguably his best yet. In 526 plate appearances between the Marlins and A’s, Marte turned in a .308/.381/.456 with a dozen home runs, 27 doubles and three triples — all while going 47-for-52 in stolen base attempts. He’s also perhaps the lone everyday center field option on the market.
Even if conventional wisdom suggests that the fleet-footed Marte will eventually slow down and move to a corner in a few years’ time, he still grades out as a plus runner and a respectable defensive option in center for the time being. Both Outs Above Average (2) and Ultimate Zone Rating (1.0) graded Marte as slightly above average, whereas Defensive Runs Saved was a bit below-average at minus-4. Make what you will of defensive metrics, which can of course be spotty on a year-to-year basis, but Marte has generally been passable in center and plus in left field. He also still ranks in the 83rd percentile of MLB players in terms of average sprint speed (28.4 ft/sec).
Given the scarcity of Marte’s skill set, the number of teams looking for help in the outfield (center field, in particular) and the lack of qualifying offer attached to him (he was ineligible by virtue of being traded), it’s no wonder that his market has quickly picked up steam. Prior reports have linked the Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Yankees and Giants to Marte, and Heyman tweeted this week that the Rangers — whom most expect to be quite aggressive in free agency — have also been weighing a run at Marte. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds this morning that the Astros, fresh off re-signing Justin Verlander, are being aggressive in their own efforts to sign Marte.
As we noted when ranking Marte 13th on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 free agent rankings, the list of teams with interest in bringing Marte aboard will be quite long. He’s been widely expected to command at least a three-year deal in free agency — the Marlins offered a lowball, three-year deal in the $30-39MM range prior to trading him — and with a number of recent free agents commanding premium salaries through age-36, we pegged him for a four-year deal at a total of $80MM.
Brandon Belt Accepts Qualifying Offer With Giants
Brandon Belt is staying in San Francisco, as the MLB Players Association announced this evening that he has chosen to accept the Giants’ qualifying offer. He’ll play next season on an $18.4MM salary.
Belt has spent his entire career in black and orange, first joining the organization when they selected him in the 2009 draft. The left-handed hitter was in the big leagues by 2011, and he’s spent the past decade as the Giants’ primary first baseman. He signed a long-term extension in April 2016 to guarantee he’d spend at least his first eleven major league seasons in the Bay Area, and he’s now set to return for a twelfth.
This offseason would’ve been presented Belt with his first opportunity to test free agency. After ten days for he and his representatives at Excel Sports Management to explore the market, he’s decided to forego that possibility. Instead, he’ll return to a franchise and city with which he’s clearly comfortable on a strong one-year pact. The current collective bargaining agreement prohibits teams from tagging a player with a QO more than once in his career. Assuming no changes to that provision in the next CBA, Belt is on track to hit free agency next winter without draft pick compensation attached.
That’d only be necessary, of course, if Belt and the Giants don’t agree on another long-term deal within the next twelve months. Players and teams are free to negotiate an extension even after a player accepts the QO. That’s not common, but it’s also not unheard of. Over the 2019-20 offseason, the White Sox and José Abreu lined up on a three-year deal just eight days after Abreu had accepted Chicago’s qualifying offer. Belt’s reps have recently discussed the possibility of a multi-year pact, and today’s development wouldn’t foreclose them continuing to do so.
Regardless of whether a long-term deal gets done, the Giants are surely thrilled to welcome Belt back in 2022. Not only is he a respected member of the organization, he’s coming off perhaps the best two-year stretch of his career. Going back to the start of 2020, the 33-year-old owns a .285/.393/.595 line with 38 home runs across 560 trips to the plate. Among those with 500+ plate appearances, only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper have topped Belt’s offensive output, by measure of wRC+.
As he has throughout his career, Belt has backed up that bottom line production with elite batted ball metrics. He’s been in the top six percent of the league in each of the past two seasons in Statcast’s barrel rate — essentially how often he makes hard contact at the optimal angle for extra-base impact. His overall hard contact rate and average exit velocity are also above par. And Belt gets to that authoritative contact without selling out for power. His 24.8% strikeout rate over the past two seasons is only a tick higher than the league average, while he’s drawn walks in a fantastic 13.9% of his appearances in the batter’s box.
While there’s little question about Belt’s status as an impact middle-of-the-order presence, his profile isn’t without red flags. Because he signed a mid-career extension, his first trip to the open market was set to come in advance of his age-34 campaign. Teams have become increasingly reluctant to dole out lofty multi-year deals for players through their mid-30’s, and that’s especially true of defensively-limited boppers. And while Belt has been great when healthy, he’s also been dinged up fairly frequently throughout his career.
Since emerging as a regular in 2012, Belt has only topped 500 plate appearances in four seasons. He’s dealt with repeated concussion issues in the past, and he’s gone on the injured list four times within the last two years alone. None of those issues resulted in long-term absences during the season, but Belt underwent right heel surgery last offseason and wasn’t able to partake in the Giants’ NL Division Series in 2021 after fracturing his left thumb on a hit-by-pitch in late September.
Between his age, position and injury history, Belt apparently wasn’t generating such interest over the past ten days that he felt compelled to pass up on a strong one-year offer. He’ll return to the middle of the order on a Giants team that’ll enter the season with astronomical expectations after winning a franchise-record 107 games. He’ll be joined by fellow franchise mainstay Brandon Crawford, but the club will have their work cut out for them in replacing the production and presence of Buster Posey, after the likely future Hall of Famer announced his retirement two weeks ago.
Belt’s return adds $18.4MM to the 2022 books, but that’s well within their range of comfortability. The front office was content with the possibility of Belt returning at that price when they made the QO, with good reason. Even after factoring in Belt’s return, San Francisco has just $97MM in estimated commitments, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s well shy of the franchise’s $200MM heights, leaving plenty of room for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and his staff to add to a roster that’s facing the potential departure of four-fifths of its 2021 starting rotation.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the news.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Gabe Kapler, Kevin Cash Named Managers Of The Year
The Baseball Writers Association of America announced the results of Manager of the Year balloting this evening. Giants’ skipper Gabe Kapler was named the National League winner, while Rays’ manager Kevin Cash claimed his second consecutive win in the American League.
Kapler and Cash managed the best regular season team in the respective leagues. With balloting conducted before the start of the playoffs, voters are left to judge solely on clubs’ regular season bodies of work. In addition to posting their respective league’s best records, both San Francisco and Tampa Bay finished second in run differential (behind the Dodgers and Astros, respectively).
The Giants’ magical season was unexpected. While most preseason projections figured the Dodgers and Padres would battle for the NL West crown, San Francisco shockingly won a franchise-best 107 games to claim the top seed. That came with an aging core of position players on a team that had gone just 29-31 in 2020, making it all the more impressive that the Giants were able to consistently play at an elite level all year long. The team rewarded Kapler with a two-year contract extension last week.
Manager of the Year awards frequently come to skippers whose teams outperform expectations, so it’s little surprise Kapler fared well in the balloting. He appeared on 29 of 30 ballots, garnering 28 first-place votes and one second-place finish. The other first-place votes went to Craig Counsell of the Brewers and Mike Shildt, who was nevertheless dismissed by the Cardinals after the season. Counsell and Shildt finished second and third, respectively, while the Braves’ Brian Snitker and Dodgers’ Dave Roberts also picked up some down-ballot support.
While the Giants’ great season was unexpected, the Rays’ success shouldn’t have come as much surprise. Tampa Bay also had the AL’s best record in 2020, a season in which they claimed their second pennant. That said, the Rays enter each season in a loaded AL East that includes the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays, each of whom have significantly higher payrolls.
Nevertheless, the Rays continue to churn out talented players and leverage match-ups to great success. Tampa Bay has posted a winning record in four consecutive seasons, and the club has a cumulative 554-478 mark (.537 winning percentage) since Cash took the helm in 2015. That run of consistent success contributes to Cash becoming the first back-to-back Manager of the Year winner since Bobby Cox in 2004-05.
Cash’s hold on the balloting wasn’t quite as resounding as Kapler’s. The Rays’ skipper appeared on 28 of 30 sheets, garnering 19 first-place votes. Scott Servais of the Mariners (five), Charlie Montoyo of the Blue Jays (three), Dusty Baker of the Astros (two) and Alex Cora of the Red Sox (one) each garnered at least one first-place nod themselves, with Servais and Baker joining Cash as finalists. In addition to that group of five, the White Sox’s Tony La Russa and the Tigers’ A.J. Hinch garnered some down-ballot support.
See full balloting in each league.
Giants Sign Manager Gabe Kapler To Contract Extension
The Giants have signed manager Gabe Kapler to a contract extension that runs through the end of the 2024 season, the club announced. His original deal ran through next year, so the sides are extending their relationship by an additional two years.
It’s no surprise the San Francisco front office kicked off the offseason by hammering out an extension with their skipper. It’s fairly common for teams to avoid heading into the season with a manager in the final year of his contract — if for no other reason than to ward off speculation about their long-term future.
Of course, no one would’ve expected Kapler’s job to be in any jeopardy anyways. Signed to replace Bruce Bochy over the 2019-20 offseason, Kapler led the club to a roughly average showing in his first season. The Giants went 29-31 during the 2020 truncated schedule, finishing just outside an expanded playoff field. If anything, that roughly .500 showing looked to be an optimistic expectation heading into 2021. FanGraphs’ preseason projections gave the Giants just a 5.7% chance of reaching the playoffs, while Baseball Prospectus forecasted them at 75-87 with less than a 1% shot of winning a loaded NL West.
Instead, the Giants played one of the best seasons in the history of the more than century-old franchise. No other Giants’ team had won more than the 107 regular games claimed by this year’s squad, while their .660 winning percentage was the organization’s fifth-highest mark since 1900 (and highest since moving to San Francisco in 1958). The Giants led all teams in wins, narrowly holding off the Dodgers to claim an improbable division crown.
The team didn’t have the postseason success they no doubt desired, dropping a tight five-game Division Series against their archrivals from L.A. The front office surely isn’t holding the vagaries of a five-game sample against Kapler, though, and today’s extension reflects that.
It’s always hard to apportion credit or blame for a team’s success to a manager from the outside. Giants’ players no doubt deserve plenty of acclaim, with Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria playing as well as ever despite being into their mid-30s. That group has been effusive in their praise for the front office and Kapler’s coaching staff in helping orchestrate their turnarounds, though. Kapler and his staff also drew plaudits for their leveraging of San Francisco’s role players, with previously unheralded performers like Darin Ruf and LaMonte Wade Jr. thriving in platoon capacities.
The Giants’ marvelous campaign has massively raised expectations for the franchise heading into 2022. Facing the potential free agent departures of four-fifths of their primary rotation, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and his front office have plenty of work to do this offseason. They’ve checked off one box early, keeping Kapler in the Bay Area for what they hope to be another few great seasons.
Giants Notes: Belt, DeSclafani, Suzuki
Brandon Belt has until November 17 to decide on whether to accept or reject the $18.4MM qualifying offer from the Giants, but the club isn’t just twiddling their thumbs in the meantime. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports that they met with his representatives today and “discussed several contract formats.”
After a down year in 2019, Belt has been one of the best hitters on the planet for the past couple years. Over the past two seasons, he has hit .285/.393/.595, producing a wRC+ of 163, which is third-best in MLB among those with at least 550 plate appearances, trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper. However, the first baseman, who turns 34 in April, has been often limited by injuries. Only one of his past five campaigns saw him get into more than 112 games, and it happened to be that down year in 2019. In 2021, it was just 97 games. Still, the production is strong enough that the Giants are happy to retain him, as evidenced by the extension of the QO, but also on whatever type of multi-year deal they discussed today.
A few months ago, the club extended their other Brandon for two-years and $32MM, which could perhaps be the type of deal they’re offering Belt now, slightly less money than the QO on an annual basis, but over a longer term. MLBTR recently predicted that Belt would accept the QO and try to re-enter the market a year from now, after he has hopefully had better health and seen the NL implement the DH.
Baggarly also reports that the club met with representatives for righty Anthony DeSclafani and discussed multi-year deals for him. Zaidi has already made it clear that the rotation is the “number one priority“, which makes a lot of sense given that it currently consists of just Logan Webb, on account of DeSclafani reaching free agency, as well as Kevin Gausman, Alex Wood and Johnny Cueto. DeSclafani, 32 in April, had a miserable season for the Reds in 2020 but righted the ship nicely in 2021. After being picked up by the Giants, he tossed 167 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.17. MLBTR, in the same pieced linked above, recently predicted he would garner three years and $42MM, an annual average value of $14MM.
But the Giants aren’t just considering their departing free agents, of course. John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that they have interest in Seiya Suzuki, who is expected to be posted for MLB teams soon. Baggarly quotes Zaidi as saying that a right-handed hitting outfielder like Suzuki “kind of fits our team.” That’s a bit of an understatement, as their current outfield skews heavily the other way, with Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade Jr., Steven Duggar and Alex Dickerson all hitting from the left side and Austin Slater being the most notable righty. Kris Bryant, who hits right-handed, was brought into the mix at the trade deadline but is now a free agent.
MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently wrote about the Giants as part of the Offseason Outlook series and noted that they are lined up to be one of the busiest teams this winter, given their multiple openings and limited payroll commitments. Zaidi and the rest of his team are sure to explore each and every opportunity to add to their team this winter, and all indications point to them already doing just that.
Verlander Showcase Draws Scouts From 15-20 Teams
Two-time Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, who has pitched just six innings since the conclusion of the 2019 season due to 2020 Tommy John surgery, held a free-agent showcase this week. Representatives from as many as 15 to 20 teams this week, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post, adding that Verlander’s fastball was clocked from 94 to 97 mph. He’s presently about 13 and a half months out from the surgery and will be 17 months removed from the procedure by the time Spring Training is set to begin.
As one would expect, the list of known teams in attendance at the showcase includes a blend of big-market contenders and a few rebuilding clubs looking to turn the corner and get back into competitive ball. Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic tweets that the Yankees, Rangers and Tigers were in attendance. Sherman notes that the Mets had two scouts present for Verlander’s workout. TSN’s Scott Mitchell adds the Blue Jays to the pile, and the Post’s Ken Davidoff lists the Giants as another suitor. Angels GM Perry Minasian told reporters that the Halos had someone present to watch Verlander as well (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Sam Blum).
Of course, given the stage of the offseason we’re at, it’s safe to assume that virtually any team with a modicum of 2022 postseason hope and/or any actual money to spent this offseason was at least present to gauge Verlander’s readiness. As Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom asked rhetorically when confirming his club’s presence at the showcase (link via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe): “Age might affect the term you consider, but if the present ability is there, why wouldn’t you be interested?”
By all accounts, the showcase went quite well. Beyond the multiple reports pegging Verlander’s velocity in the mid- to upper-90s, Sherman indicates that Verlander was able to throw all of his pitches and looked sharp across the board. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets that one scout offered a simple, two-word assessment of Verlander after watching his open audition: “He’s ready.”
It’s certainly worth noting that the showcase was held at the Cressey Performance Center — a facility run by Yankees director of health and performance Eric Cressey. Corey Kluber held his own showcase there last year and ultimately signed with the Yankees, but the mere location of Verlander’s workout doesn’t make a deal with the Yankees a foregone conclusion.
The Astros made a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to Verlander over the weekend, but the widespread expectation is that he’ll reject that in search of a multi-year offer. Astros owner Jim Crane said last month that Verlander would likely be looking for a “contract of some length” in free agency, heavily implying at least a two-year term. Furthermore, hosting a showcase for two-thirds of the league is an obvious indicator that Verlander is interested in seeing what the market has to bear.
Verlander, 39 in February, didn’t pitch in 2021 and threw just six innings in 2020. Of course, in his last healthy season, he won the 2019 American League Cy Young Award after posting a 2.58 ERA in an MLB-best 223 innings with a huge 35.4% strikeout rate against a 5.0% walk rate. Verlander has said on multiple occasions in the past that he hopes to pitch well into his 40s.
14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers
Today was the last day for teams to issue qualifying offers to eligible free agents, as teams had to make their decisions by 4pm CT. With the deadline now behind us, here are the players who were issued the one-year, $18.4MM offers…
- Brandon Belt, Giants (link)
- Nick Castellanos, Reds (link)
- Michael Conforto, Mets (link)
- Carlos Correa, Astros (link)
- Freddie Freeman, Braves (link)
- Raisel Iglesias, Angels (link)
- Robbie Ray, Blue Jays (link)
- Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox (link)
- Corey Seager, Dodgers (link)
- Marcus Semien, Blue Jays (link)
- Trevor Story, Rockies (link)
- Noah Syndergaard, Mets (link)
- Chris Taylor, Dodgers (link)
- Justin Verlander, Astros (link)
This is the highest number of qualifying offers issued since the 2015-16 offseason, when a record 20 players received the QOs. Only six players received qualifying offers last winter, which was the lowest ever issued in an offseason, yet not really surprising given the pandemic’s impact on the 2020 season and league revenues.
These 14 players now have until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the offer. If they accept, they’ll receive $18.4MM next season, and can’t be traded until June 15, 2022. They also won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips to free agency (players are also ineligible for the qualifying offer if they haven’t spent at least one full season with their current team). Since the qualifying offer system was introduced in the 2012-13 offseason, 10 of the 96 players to receive a QO have taken the deal.
If a player rejects the qualifying offer, draft pick compensation is now attached to their market, unless they re-sign with their former team. Teams who sign a QO free agent will have to surrender at least one draft pick, and potentially some international bonus pool money depending on their status as revenue-sharing recipients or whether or not they exceeded the luxury tax threshold. (Here is the list of what every team would have to give up to sign a QO free agent.)
If a QO free agent signs elsewhere, that player’s former team receives a compensatory draft pick based on this criteria….
- A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.
- A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.
- A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.
As always, several factors are weighed by both teams and players about whether or not to issue or accept qualifying offers. This winter provides yet another wrinkle — this could be the final year of the current qualifying offer system due to the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1. It is widely expected that the owners could lock out the players if a new deal isn’t reached by that date. In the event of a lockout, MLB would institute a roster freeze on all transactional business involving Major League players, thus bringing the free agent market to a halt.
With this deadline looming, it is possible we could see some QO recipients (those less certain of landing big multi-year contracts) choose to accept the one-year deal in order to guarantee themselves some financial and contractual security prior to a possible lockout. By that same token, this could make teams warier about extending the qualifying offer to certain players due to a larger suspicion that they would accept…or perhaps a player’s willingness to accept could make a team more inclined to issue a QO to a so-called borderline case.
Notable Players Who Didn’t Receive Qualifying Offers
Fourteen players were issued qualifying offers before today’s 4pm CT deadline, making the largest slate of offers extended since 20 players received the QO during the 2015-16 offseason. Despite the large number, however, some notable (and surprising) names weren’t issued the one-year, $18.4MM contract by their teams, and will now enter free agency without any draft pick compensation attached to their services.
We already touched on Clayton Kershaw’s situation with the Dodgers, and now let’s look at the three other free agents (all pitchers) who were seen as possible or even probable candidates to receive the QO…
Jon Gray, Rockies
Perhaps the most curious non-decision of the day came from Denver, as the Rockies passed on giving Gray a qualifying offer despite their clear interest in retaining the right-hander. The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders reports that Gray “likely would have accepted” a qualifying offer, which likely factored into the team’s decision-making process. It seems like the Rockies simply weren’t willing to pay Gray $18.4MM over one year, even though Colorado seemed comfortable in the range of a $13MM average annual value, as per their recent extension offer of a three-year deal worth around $35-$40MM.
It seems entirely possible that Gray could find more than three years and $40MM on the open market, especially without any QO compensation involved. While the Rockies and Gray may yet work out a new contract, the Rox are now in the position of losing Gray for nothing. This would be an especially tough blow for the club considering that they held onto Gray at the trade deadline out of the desire to sign him to a long-term extension.
Carlos Rodon, White Sox
Some late-season shoulder problems resulted in a trip to the injured list and then a reduced workload for the southpaw, putting a bit of a sour end to an otherwise tremendous year. However, the White Sox declined to issue Rodon a qualifying offer, and may now be parting ways with Rodon entirely — both The Athletic’s James Fegan and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale indicated that the Sox weren’t going to make an effort to bring Rodon back for another year on the South Side.
With this in mind, it seems clear that the White Sox didn’t want to run the risk of Rodon accepting the QO, which seemed like a distinct possibility given his late-season shoulder woes, not to mention his lengthy past injury history. It could be that the Sox already consider Rodon as found money, considering they took a $3MM flier on him last winter and he delivered 132 2/3 innings of 2.37 ERA ball. The team might also have further concerns about his long-term health. As Fegan notes, Chicago could use some type of starting depth this offseason, but it looks as though the White Sox feel they can find that rotation help at a cheaper price than Rodon at $18.4MM.
Anthony DeSclafani, Giants
One of several pitchers who have revived their careers after coming to San Francisco, DeSclafani rebounded from a rough 2020 season with the Reds to post a 3.17 ERA over 167 2/3 frames in a Giants uniform. With some less-than-stellar Statcast numbers, however, the Giants may not have been inclined to have DeSclafani back for $18.4MM, though the team does have designs on re-signing him if possible.
There was a decent chance DeSclafani would have accepted the Giants’ QO, just as Kevin Gausman did a season ago. Since the Giants also issued a qualifying offer to Brandon Belt that could be accepted, the club was probably wary of committing $36.8MM to just two players for their 2022 payroll, even if San Francisco has quite a bit of financial room to maneuver.