- Right-hander Luke Jackson exited last night’s game with Giants trainers after suffering some degree of back injury. Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that the 32-year-old Jackson underwent an MRI and will be further evaluated today. Jackson missed just under a month with a back strain last year but said following last night’s injury that the initial pain this time around was not as severe as it was in 2023. The Giants inked Jackson to a two-year, $11.5MM contract in the 2022-23 offseason while he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He made his team debut late last May and was excellent when healthy enough to be on the roster: 33 1/3 innings, 2.97 ERA, 30.1% strikeout rate. Last night, however, Jackson’s velocity was down more than a mile per hour from his 2023 average, and he allowed all three hitters he faced to reach base. All three came around to score.
Giants Rumors
Giants Option Marco Luciano, Select Nick Ahmed, Release Pablo Sandoval
The Giants announced a huge slate of transactions Thursday as they set their Opening Day roster. Shortstop prospect Marco Luciano and outfield prospect Luis Matos were optioned to Triple-A Sacramento to begin the season. San Francisco selected the contract of veteran shortstop Nick Ahmed and right-hander Landen Roupp, who’ll both make the Opening Day roster. The Giants also recalled lefty Erik Miller from Triple-A, placed righties Sean Hjelle and Alex Cobb on the 15-day IL (as expected), designated catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel for assignment, placed lefty Ethan Small on the 60-day injured list and released infielder Pablo Sandoval. Out of options catcher Joey Bart made the roster.
Luciano, 22, is widely considered to be among the game’s top 100 prospects. He made a brief MLB debut last year and was in competition for the Opening Day roster nod throughout the entirety of camp, but the Giants will defer to the veteran Ahmed as their Opening Day shortstop.
Luciano heated up toward the end of camp, perhaps making the decision a bit tougher, but he finished with a .227/.364/.432 slash and a 34.5% strikeout rate in 55 plate appearances. Those strikeout troubles have been an issue for some time; Luciano fanned in 29.8% of his Double-A plate appearances last year and 35.9% of his Triple-A plate appearances. He’ll head back to the upper minors to continue to work on that area of his game.
In his place, the Giants will turn to longtime division foe Ahmed, who’s spent his entire 10-year career with the Diamondbacks. Ahmed, who’s won a pair of Gold Gloves in his career, has always been a defensive-minded shortstop. He’s long ranked as one of the premium defenders in the game, regardless of position. However, his already modest offensive production has taken a stark downturn over the past two seasons due to a shoulder injury that eventually required surgery.
Ahmed has looked sharp this spring, however, turning in a .355/.459/.645 slash with a pair of homers in a small sample of 37 plate appearances. The Giants bid adieu to their own longtime premier defensive shortstop, Brandon Crawford, this offseason. (Were it not for Crawford, Ahmed may have a few more Gold Gloves on his mantle.) Ahmed will bring a similar skill set to the table, though he’s three years younger. And, since he doesn’t have such a storied history with the franchise, it’ll be easier to cut him loose or significantly reduce his playing time if he struggles and/or if Luciano forces the issue with a big Triple-A performance.
Roupp, 25, was San Francisco’s 12th-round pick in the 2021 draft. He posted a 1.74 ERA and fanned more than a third of his opponents in 31 Double-A frames last season and will jump straight from that level to the big leagues. He earned that promotion with a huge spring showing, holding opponents to a pair of runs on two hits and four walks with 13 punchouts in eight innings.
Hummel, 29, is a career .166/.264/.286 hitter in 227 plate appearances at the big league level. He carries a far more impressive Triple-A track record, including a .262/.409/.435 batting line and a massive 18% walk rate there last year. He bounced from the Mariners, to the Mets, to the Giants via the DFA circuit this winter. Hummel still has a minor league option remaining, and the Giants will have a week to trade him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers.
Sandoval, 37, singled in his final at-bat of Giants spring training earlier this week. That game was played at Oracle Park, giving “Kung Fu Panda” the opportunity to suit up (at least) one more time in front of the Giants fans who revered him for his peak run as a middle-of-the-order slugger for the Giants even-year dynasty that saw them bring home World Series titles in 2010, 2012 and 2014. An emotional Sandoval said after the game what a special experience it was to take the field and be embraced by the San Francisco faithful one more time. Whether he continues his playing career remains to be seen, but if not, it was a fitting sendoff to a beloved member of the franchise who’ll long be remembered as a fan favorite.
Pablo Sandoval Plans To Report To Triple-A; Giants Re-Assign Mason Black
When veteran infielder Pablo Sandoval signed a non-roster deal with the Giants last month, it was reported that the deal was not meant to be a ceremonial end to the 37-year-old’s storied career akin to the deal right-hander Sergio Romo took with the club before retiring last spring. Rather, Sandoval hoped that the deal could be a stepping stone toward returning to the majors. After the Kung Fu Panda slashed just .250/.323/.250 without a single extra-base hit in 16 games with the club this spring, it appears unlikely that will come to pass for the time being. That still doesn’t mean that Sandoval has any intention of retiring, however. As relayed by MLB.com’s Henry Schulman, Sandoval has indicated that he intends to keep playing even if he does not make the major league roster in San Francisco to open the season. Instead, he intends to report to Triple-A Sacramento and play for the Giants in the minor leagues.
A veteran of 14 big league seasons who last played in the majors back in 2021, Sandoval is a two-time All Star who earned World Series MVP honors with the Giants in 2012 while also playing a key role during the club’s championship seasons in 2010 and 2014. Sandoval initially departed San Francisco to sign in Boston prior to the 2015 season, but that disastrous contract saw him released partway through the 2017 campaign. He returned to the Giants afterward and enjoyed a pair of resurgent seasons with the club in 2018 and 2019 as he slashed .259/.311/.466 in a combined 200 games. His most recent big league appearances came with the Braves, with whom he hit .178/.302/.342 in 69 games in a bench role three seasons ago.
While Sandoval clearly intends to continue his professional career into his age-37 campaign, it’s unclear what the Giants’ plans are regarding their World Series hero at this point. Indeed, Sandoval noted to Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area yesterday that he has not yet discussed his plan to continue playing in the minor leagues with Giants brass. Even so, Sandoval emphasized to Pavlovic that he has no intention of hanging up the cleats at this point. “Everyone thinks I’m retired,” Sandoval said (per Pavlovic). “I’m not retired.”
- Sticking with the Giants, the club made a surprising move yesterday by re-assigning right-hander Mason Black to the minor leagues, as noted by MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado. While the right-hander’s 6.97 ERA in 10 1/3 innings of work with the Giants this spring certainly presents a clear case for the 24-year-old starting the season in Triple-A, the move came just over a week after manager Bob Melvin indicated to reporters that the club was likely to turn to Black as a member of their Opening Day rotation. Of course, San Francisco’s rotation plans were altered the very next day by the addition of reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell, but it’s still something of a shock to see Black sent to Triple-A given the club’s need for innings in the bullpen due to injuries suffered by Tristan Beck and Sean Hjelle this spring. Instead, it appears the long relief role will be offered to non-roster veteran Daulton Jefferies, who impressed with a 2.57 ERA in 14 innings during camp.
Austin Slater Might Start Season On 10-Day IL
- Austin Slater returned to the field yesterday and is also set to play in today’s game, marking the Giants outfielder’s first action since last weekend. Slater has been bothered by discomfort in his right elbow, which is a troubling sign since Slater underwent surgery on that same elbow last October to both remove a bone spur and address some nerve problems via an ulnar nerve transposition. His recovery led to a slower start to his Cactus League work, and Slater has played in only six games this spring, so manager Bob Melvin told the San Francisco Chronicle’s Shayna Rubin and other reporters that Slater might need to start the season on the injured list. As Slater himself told Rubin and company, “The quantity of at-bats, I’m not super concerned about. It’s more about feeling healthy and being able to bounce back the next day which, at this point, I haven’t been able to do.” If Slater isn’t available for Opening Day, Luis Matos is the likeliest candidate to step into the backup/platoon outfield role.
Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants
It was a bit of a slow burn, but the Giants ended up being the main beneficiary of the tepid offseason, as they were able to sign three star players after February had already begun. Since they had also signed a significant deal with a Korean superstar and traded for a former Cy Young winner, it added up to the most significant winter the club has had in years.
Major League Signings
- OF Jung Hoo Lee: Six years, $113MM (plus $18.825MM posting fee; Lee can opt out after four years)
- LHP Blake Snell: Two years, $62MM (can opt out after 2024)
- 3B Matt Chapman: Three years, $54MM (including buyout of 2027 mutual option; Chapman can opt out after ’24 and ’25)
- RHP Jordan Hicks: Four years, $44MM
- OF/DH: Jorge Soler: Three years, $42MM
- C Tom Murphy: Two years, $8.25MM (including buyout of 2026 club option)
- RHP Austin Warren: One year, $755K
2024 spending: $73.755MM (not including Lee’s posting fee or Snell’s 2026 signing bonus)
Total spending: $324.005MM (not including Lee’s posting fee)
Option Decisions
- OF Michael Conforto exercises $18MM player option
- RHP Ross Stripling exercises $12.5MM player option
- Team exercises $10MM option on RHP Alex Cobb
- LHP Sean Manaea declines $12.5MM player option
Trades and Claims
- Claimed RHP Devin Sweet off waivers from Athletics (later lost on waivers to Tigers)
- Acquired OF TJ Hopkins from Reds for cash (later lost on waivers to Tigers)
- Acquired LHP Robbie Ray from Mariners for OF Mitch Haniger and RHP Anthony DeSclafani and cash
- Acquired C/OF Cooper Hummel from Mets for cash
- Traded RHP Ross Stripling and cash to Athletics for OF Jonah Cox
- Acquired LHP Ethan Small from Brewers for cash
- Acquired IF/OF Otto López from Blue Jays for cash
Notable Minor League Signings
- Yusniel Díaz, Cole Waites, Thomas Szapucki, Daulton Jefferies, Yoshi Tsutsugo, Donovan Walton, Tommy Romero, Cody Stashak, Pablo Sandoval, Nick Ahmed, Justin Garza
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
- Manaea, Stripling, Jakob Junis, Scott Alexander, Joc Pederson, Brandon Crawford, John Brebbia, Alex Wood, AJ Pollock, Bryce Johnson, Mark Mathias, J.D. Davis,
Many recent offseasons for the Giants have been defined by who they didn’t acquire. They were in the mix for superstars like Bryce Harper and Aaron Judge but ultimately didn’t get those deals across the finish line. They had an agreement in place with Carlos Correa before the team got scared off by his physical and walked away.
The result has been that the clubs of the Farhan Zaidi era have mostly been middling, sputtering by while cobbling together some decent role players, compiling some passable platoon pairings and oscillating almost every pitcher between the rotation and bullpen. Since Zaidi took over as president of baseball operations in November of 2018, the Giants have mostly hovered below .500, apart from a 107-win campaign in 2021 that now looks like a clear outlier.
Gabe Kapler won manager of the year for that surge, but the club fell to 81-81 in 2022 and then 79-83 last year. Before last year’s campaign was even finished, the club decided to move on from Kapler, as he was shown the door at the end of September.
Thankfully, a solution to their managerial vacancy fell from the sky, which was perhaps an omen of how the rest of their offseason would play out. Across the division and the state of California, rumors started to percolate out of San Diego about discord within the Padres organization. That club’s manager Bob Melvin had reportedly been clashing with president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. They initially planned to put their differences aside and continue working together, but the Giants came calling and asked to talk to Melvin, which the Padres agreed to.
Melvin was the manager of the Athletics when Zaidi was working in that front office, prior to joining the Giants. Presumably, the two were at least passingly familiar with each other from then and Melvin decided to skipper his ship up the coast to the Bay Area. Melvin’s contract with the Padres ran through 2024, as did Zaidi’s with the Giants. But the Giants decided to give the two some extra job security by extending both through 2026.
With the decisions made about the decision makers, the focus could turn to the roster. Starting pitching was a clear target after a season in which the club was quite nonchalant about moving guys between the rotation and the bullpen. Logan Webb, Alex Cobb and rookie Kyle Harrison were the only pitchers to work exclusively as starters, as Sean Manaea, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Ross Stripling, Jakob Junis and others were oscillated between starting and relieving gigs, with Wood later expressing some frustration with that inconsistency.
That hodgepodge rotation got even thinner this offseason, with Manaea opting out of his deal and returning to the open market. Wood and Junis also became free agents while Cobb required hip surgery at the end of October, with a recovery timeline that would keep him out of action into the 2024 season.
Zaidi acknowledged early on that starting pitching would be a priority, as well as outfield defense. At shortstop, Zaidi said in October that rookie Marco Luciano would have the chance to be the everyday guy, though the club’s commitment to that plan would later prove to be weak.
At first, the club set its sights high, seemingly looking for the superstar it had failed to land in previous offseasons. All eyes were on Shohei Ohtani in the early parts of the offseason and the Giants stayed involved in that market the whole way through. They were apparently willing to offer Ohtani the same heavily-deferred contract that he eventually signed with the Dodgers, but it nonetheless went down as another miss.
And it wasn’t the only big whiff of the winter, as the club was also connected to targets like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Juan Soto, Cody Bellinger and others, but none of that group would be coming to San Francisco either.
In mid-December, they did make one notable strike. Jung Hoo Lee, a star in Korea, agreed to join the Giants on a six-year, $113MM deal. The 25-year-old outfielder is not a star in North America, at least not yet, but it was easily the biggest free agent deal of the Zaidi era. Previously, that was the $44MM over two years given to Carlos Rodón, who ended up opting out after just one year. It’s a bit of a gamble since there’s some uncertainty about whether Lee’s approach will translate to the majors, but his youth and athleticism could allow him to serve as a solid everyday center fielder and leadoff-hitting type.
As for the rotation, the club’s signing of Jordan Hicks sat as the most notable addition for a long time. In mid-January, he and the club agreed to a four-year, $44MM pact. That contract was roughly in line with expectations for Hicks as a reliever but it was a surprise to hear that the Giants were going to plug him into the rotation.
Hicks has youth on his side, still just 27 years old, but counting on him to provide bulk innings is no guarantee. He was a starter as a prospect but never logged more than 105 innings, which came back in 2017. Since reaching the majors, the Cardinals have mostly kept him in relief. They gave him a chance to try starting again in 2022 but he suffered a flexor strain in May and the club moved him back to the bullpen once he was healthy.
He has triple-digit heat but has been more passable than dominant, with a career ERA of 3.85 thus far. His 28.4% strikeout rate last year was strong but he still walked 11.2% of batters he faced. He compensates for those free passes with heaps of ground balls but it remains to be seen whether he can do that for multiple innings and for an extended stretch of time.
There was another significant rotation move that came in January, though one that wouldn’t be able to help in the short term. The Giants sent Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani to the Mariners in exchange for lefty Robbie Ray. The signing of Lee had given the Giants a bit of an outfield surplus, as Mike Yastrzemski would be pushed into the corner mix with Michael Conforto, Luis Matos and others. DeSclafani, meanwhile, had likely fallen out of the club’s plans as he had been injured for much of the previous two seasons and the younger Giants pitchers neared the majors.
Getting a former Cy Young winner for a couple of spare parts is a nice coup, in theory, but there are some asterisks. Ray underwent Tommy John and flexor tendon surgery in May of last year and won’t be available to them until the All-Star break, even in a best-case scenario. It’s also possible the Giants will remain on the hook for his contract, which runs through 2026. Ray can opt out after 2024 but he won’t be able to log many innings before making that decision, so he would likely have to be in great form for him to consider walking away from two years and $50MM.
In addition to the DeSclafani trade, the Giants further thinned out their rotation by sending Ross Stripling to the Athletics in early February. They got outfielder Jonah Cox in that deal but it was mostly a salary dump, as it saved them $9.25MM.
Just as Spring Training was about to begin, the Giants made a strong move to upgrade their lineup. Joc Pederson had been their primary designated hitter last year but he hit free agency and moved across the division to the Diamondbacks. The Giants replaced him by signing Jorge Soler to a three-year, $42MM deal. Soler is a streaky hitter but is one of the best power bats in the league when at his best.
He hit 48 home runs with the Royals back in 2019. That was the “juiced ball” season but that number led the American League and Kauffman Stadium is one of the hardest ballparks to hit it out of. He hit another 36 for the Marlins last year and opted out, eventually signing with the Giants. Oracle Park is also a tough venue for the long ball and no Giant has had a 30-homer season since Barry Bonds in 2004, a pretty stunning statistic. If Soler stays healthy and has one of his good years, he has a solid chance to break that streak.
As Spring Training ramped up, the Giants still hadn’t addressed their shortstop position. Though Zaidi initially said Luciano would get a chance to be the everyday guy there, the club was rumored to be looking around for other options throughout the winter. Franchise icon Brandon Crawford was out there in free agency but it seemed the Giants were ready to move on. In the last week of February, the Giants added Nick Ahmed on a minor league deal and Crawford joined the Cardinals.
He and Zaidi later spoke of the parting of ways, with Crawford expressing frustration at not coming back. A Bay Area native who grew up a Giants fan, Crawford has been synonymous with the franchise for his entire career. But Zaidi believed having such an iconic player on the bench wouldn’t be comfortable for the other players, so the club will proceed without Crawford for the first time since he was drafted in 2008.
Around the baseball world, a key storyline of the spring revolved around how many notable free agents remained unsigned in what turned out to be an incredibly slow offseason. The Giants were able to take advantage by signing third baseman Matt Chapman, who was pegged for a nine-figure deal at the start of the winter, for just three years and $54MM with opt-outs.
The Giants had J.D. Davis at the hot corner, but Chapman is a far superior defender and roughly comparable hitter. With an uncertain shortstop situation, it was a sensible swap for the club, especially at such a bargain rate.
The club then tried to shop Davis and his $6.9MM salary but found no takers. The free agent market had collapsed to such a point that solid infielders Gio Urshela and Amed Rosario each signed deals for just $1.5MM, which gave Davis little appeal at his price point. Arbitration salaries are not guaranteed if the sides go to a hearing, which Davis and the Giants had done, the player coming out victorious. But since it wasn’t guaranteed, the club was able to release him while only paying 30 days’ termination pay, which amounted to about $1.1MM.
This was obviously an unpleasant outcome for Davis, who eventually signed with the A’s for a guarantee of just $2.5MM. The unfair nature of the proceedings has seemingly been an inciting incident for the MLBPA, with players understandably upset by how things played out.
Despite all this activity surrounding the Giants, they arrived at the middle of March with the major target area of the rotation relatively unanswered. Cobb and Ray would be starting the season on the injured list, leaving the club with little certainty beyond ace Logan Webb. They had the converted reliever Hicks and then unproven young guys like Harrison, Triston Beck, Keaton Winn and Sean Hjelle. As Spring Training opened, Beck, Winn and Hjelle all battled injuries of varying degrees, highlighting the flimsiness of the group.
But they were able to take advantage of the weak free agent market once again, as they signed Blake Snell to a two-year, $62MM deal with an opt-out after the first season. Snell is the reigning National League Cy Young winner and was surely hoping for a massive nine-figure deal but was never able to land it.
There’s still plenty of uncertainty in the rotation picture but Snell makes it much stronger in the short term. And in the long term, it’s possible to imagine the season finishing with a San Francisco rotation consisting of Webb, Snell, Ray and Cobb, with one spot available for Hicks, Harrison or someone else. A lot has to go right for that to happen, but it’s wonderful to dream on for now.
In the end, the offseason could hardly have played out much better for Zaidi and the Giants. As mentioned, they have been incredibly averse to long-term free agent deals. Though they have made significant offers to players like Judge, Correa, Ohtani and others, they came into this winter having never given out more than the two-year, $44MM deal for Rodon. But they were able to add two Cy Young winners, one of the game’s best defenders, one of its best sluggers and a Korean star. And they did all of that without really breaking the bank in the present or in the future. The only guys who got more than three years, Lee and Hicks, are 25 and 27 years old, respectively. They are set to pay the competitive balance tax for the first time since 2017, but they are not far over the line and will face modest penalties as a “first-time” payor.
They still have some questions on the pitching staff and it seems as though the light-hitting Ahmed might end up as their everyday shortstop, but a lot of talent has been added to the roster this winter. They’re in for a battle since they share a division with the juggernaut Dodgers, the reigning N.L. champion Diamondbacks and the pesky Padres, but there’s more to be excited about than there was last year or even a six weeks ago.
Giants Release Amir Garrett
The Giants announced Thursday evening that they’ve released veteran reliever Amir Garrett from his minor league deal (X link via Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle). He had been in camp as a non-roster invitee but wasn’t going to make the Opening Day roster.
That’s not a surprise given the left-hander’s numbers this spring. Garrett allowed nine runs over 6 1/3 innings. He surrendered 13 hits and issued seven walks while recording three strikeouts. The Giants could use lefty relief help, but Garrett simply hadn’t performed well.
The 31-year-old should nevertheless find interest on a minor league deal elsewhere. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and he has an above-average 26.4% strikeout rate over 325 1/3 career innings. Garrett fanned a quarter of batters faced with a 3.33 ERA in 27 appearances for the Royals last season, but Kansas City cut him loose because his walk rate had jumped to a near-18% clip. He finished the year in Triple-A with the Guardians, where he struggled in a very small sample. While Garrett is unlikely to get a season-opening opportunity in a major league bullpen, he’s a sensible target for teams looking for upper minors relief depth based on his velocity and bat-missing ability.
San Francisco only has one left-hander who is a lock for their bullpen: Taylor Rogers. They optioned Erik Miller earlier in camp, while Ethan Small is headed to the injured list after straining his right oblique. There are no other lefty relievers on the 40-man roster.
If the Giants want a second left-hander, non-roster invitee Juan Sanchez has seemingly pitched his way to the top of list. The 23-year-old has punched out 11 against two walks with a massive 60% ground-ball rate over nine innings in camp. He has allowed four runs, two of them earned.
MLBTR Podcast: Mutiny In The MLBPA, Blake Snell Signs With The Giants And The Dylan Cease Trade
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The recent news of the divide in the MLBPA (2:15)
- The release of J.D. Davis and its impact on the MLBPA situation (8:45)
- Recent collective bargaining agreement history and its relation to current MLBPA strife (11:30)
- Giants sign Blake Snell (17:25)
- Padres acquire Dylan Cease from the White Sox (23:15)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Will the Blue Jays make a run at Juan Soto when he hits free agency next year? (33:35)
- I don’t understand some of the outfielder signings this offseason. How does Hunter Renfroe command $6.5MM when Adam Duvall only gets $3MM? Why would the Twins trade for Manuel Margot when they could have just re-signed Michael A. Taylor? Is there a logical explanation? Or did the Twins and Royals front offices just screw up? (39:45)
- Do you think that Emmanuel Clase could be traded at the deadline if the Guardians out of it? If so, what do you think he’d fetch at full strength? (43:00)
Check out our past episodes!
- Injured Pitchers, Brayan Bello’s Extension, Mookie Betts At Shortstop And J.D. Davis – listen here
- The Giants Sign Matt Chapman, Zack Wheeler’s Extension, And Blake Snell And Jordan Montgomery Remain – listen here
- How Cody Bellinger’s Deal Affects The Other Free Agents And Why The Offseason Played Out Like This – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Giants Sign Blake Snell
The Giants have made another Spring Training strike. San Francisco has officially announced the signing of Blake Snell on a two-year, $62MM contract that allows him to opt out after the upcoming season. The Boras Corporation client will receive a $15MM salary in 2024 and has a $17MM signing bonus that will not be paid until January 2026. Snell will receive the bonus even if he opts out, so that decision essentially amounts to a $30MM player option for the ’25 season. If Snell does not opt out, half of his salary for the second season would be deferred until 2027.
San Francisco adds the defending NL Cy Young winner to the top of a staff that also includes last year’s runner-up, Logan Webb. A two-year deal certainly isn’t what Snell had in mind at the beginning of the winter. The 31-year-old hit free agency coming off an otherworldly finish to the 2023 campaign. Snell’s platform season actually started shakily, as he allowed 15 runs over his first 23 frames. From the start of May onward, he was the best pitcher in the majors. Snell allowed only 1.78 earned runs per nine through 27 starts and 157 innings after April.
Despite the tough first month, the southpaw finished the year with an MLB-best 2.25 ERA across 180 frames. He punched out 31.5% of opposing hitters, a mark surpassed by only Spencer Strider and Tyler Glasnow among pitchers with at least 100 innings. No other starter missed more bats on a per-swing basis. Opponents made contact on just 64.2% of their swings against Snell, narrowly better than Strider’s 64.3% figure for the lowest rate in the majors.
As a result, Snell cruised to the second Cy Young of his career. He received 28 of 30 first-place votes. He’d won the American League Cy Young as a member of the Rays five seasons earlier behind an AL-leading 1.89 ERA over 31 starts. He joined Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom as active pitchers with multiple Cy Young wins.
The 2018 and ’23 seasons are, rather remarkably, the only seasons in which Snell has appeared on Cy Young ballots. That points to some amount of inconsistency over the course of his career, which is mostly attributable to scattershot control. Snell has walked nearly 11% of batters faced over his seven-plus big league seasons. Last season’s 13.3% walk percentage was the highest rate of his career. Snell led the majors with 99 free passes, the first pitcher to do so in a Cy Young-winning campaign in more than 60 years.
Snell has never been a bad pitcher, but the inconsistent strike-throwing has kept him from turning in ace production on an annual basis. He posted an ERA ranging from 3.24 to 4.29 in the four seasons between his award-winning campaigns. While Snell fanned over 30% of opposing hitters every year, working deep counts kept him from logging massive workloads. He has averaged a little less than 5 1/3 innings per start over the course of his career. He reached the 180-inning mark in each of his Cy Young campaigns but didn’t surpass 130 frames in any other season.
It seems the market didn’t value Snell as a clear-cut ace despite the strength of his platform year. The only other publicly reported offer which he received was a six-year, $150MM proposal from the Yankees back in January. When Snell didn’t accept, New York inked Marcus Stroman to a two-year deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the Yankees took their offer off the table last month and declined to reengage over the weekend.
Given that Snell ultimately settled for a two-year guarantee at a marginally higher annual rate, there’s a strong argument that his camp erred in not accepting New York’s offer. At the very least, he’s taking more risk in going with a short-term pact for the chance to retest the market next winter. Still, it’s not all that surprising he didn’t jump on a $150MM guarantee.
That’s well below the seven-year, $172MM deal which Aaron Nola secured from the Phillies earlier this offseason. It’s also shy of the six-year, $162MM pact that Carlos Rodón landed from New York a year ago. Snell and Rodón are broadly similar pitchers — power lefties with questions about their ability to consistently log huge innings totals — but the former was coming off a better year than Rodón posted in 2022.
It’s possible Snell received similar or better offers from other teams that went unreported. In any case, he clearly didn’t find the kind of long-term pact that he envisioned. That seemed increasingly unlikely the longer he remained unsigned. The incumbent Padres were never a factor as they sliced payroll this winter. Teams like the Mets and Red Sox jumped out of the market fairly quickly. As the offseason dragged along, more teams downplayed the possibility of making a top-of-the-market splash. Beyond the Yankees, Snell reportedly drew interest from the Angels. The Astros were a late entrant last week before balking at an annual commitment above $30MM.
Snell joins fellow Boras Corporation clients Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman in settling for guarantees well below what most people expected entering the offseason. They’ll all have the ability to retest free agency next winter. Bellinger and Chapman inked three-year deals with opt-outs after 2024 and ’25. Jordan Montgomery, the last unsigned member of the so-called “Boras four,” has reportedly continued to hold out in search of a long-term deal. With a week and a half until Opening Day, it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to find anything close to that.
It’s yet another huge free agent strike for the Giants, who have attacked the late stages of free agency with a vengeance. After a few offseasons of missing out on their top targets, San Francisco has successfully slow-played this year’s market. Since the beginning of Spring Training, they’ve added Jorge Soler, Chapman and Snell. Soler’s three-year, $42MM deal was around pre-offseason expectations. The latter two contracts were well below what the Giants could’ve envisioned in November.
Snell puts the finishing touch on a winter that also saw San Francisco shell out $113MM for KBO star Jung Hoo Lee and $44MM for reliever turned starter Jordan Hicks. The Giants also pulled off a major trade with the Mariners that sent Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani to Seattle for rehabbing starter Robbie Ray. The 2021 AL Cy Young winner won’t be a factor until around the All-Star Break, but he could eventually add another high-ceiling arm to the rotation.
It’s still a potentially top-heavy group, but there’s now a ton of upside. Snell and Webb should form an excellent 1-2 punch. Top prospect Kyle Harrison will occupy the #3 role. Giving Hicks a starting job despite his injury history and below-average control is a gamble, but his power arsenal at least makes that an intriguing flier. Veteran righty Alex Cobb could be back from last fall’s hip surgery by May. Prospects Keaton Winn and Mason Black are back-of-the-rotation depth options early in the year.
Snell’s late signing date could have him a bit behind schedule. He has been throwing and reportedly tossed four simulated innings in front of scouts last week. There’s not a ton of time to build rapport with catcher Patrick Bailey before Opening Day, but that shouldn’t be an issue too deep into the season. Snell is at least plenty familiar with manager Bob Melvin, his skipper for the last two years with the Padres.
San Francisco’s late-offseason aggressiveness has pushed them into luxury tax territory for the first time since 2017. While the delayed payment of the signing bonus reduces the team’s commitment in the short term, the $31MM average annual value is the relevant number for tax purposes. RosterResource calculates the club’s competitive balance tax number right around the $257MM line that marks the second tier of penalization. For teams that didn’t pay the tax the preceding season, the fees are fairly modest. In contrast to the Yankees (who would’ve been taxed at a 110% rate as a third-time payor that is in the top bracket), the Giants are only hit with a 20% fee on spending between $237MM and $257MM.
The Snell deal comes with a roughly $4MM tax bill. They’ll be taxed at a 32% clip for future spending up to the $277MM mark with escalating fees thereafter. While it’s likely this marks their last major investment of the winter, they’re surely hopeful of being in a position to add at the trade deadline.
Snell declined a qualifying offer from the Padres. The Giants already forfeited their second-round pick and $500K of international bonus pool space to add Chapman. They’ll lose their third-rounder (#87 overall) and another $500K from their international bonus pool for Snell. San Diego paid the CBT a year ago, so they’re limited to the lowest compensation for losing a qualified free agent: a selection after the fourth round. The Padres received the #135 pick for losing Josh Hader and will now get another selection in that range.
Paying the CBT and parting with draft capital are costs the Giants are happy to pay to get Chapman and Snell on short-term deals. San Francisco was comfortable with similar contract structures for Rodón and Michael Conforto in previous offseasons. Both players could walk next offseason for nothing — they’re ineligible to receive another qualifying offer in their careers — but that’s a risk worth taking to continue loading up in a division full of star talent with four legitimate threats to make the playoffs.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported Snell and the Giants agreed to a two-year, $62MM deal with an opt-out. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported the signing bonus and salary breakdown.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Astros Reportedly “Long-Shots” To Land Blake Snell
The Astros have been the buzz of the baseball world this weekend following reporting that indicated the club was in “serious pursuit” of the top remaining free agent, reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell. Reporting from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale earlier today indicates that the club may be a “long-shot” to ultimately land the southpaw, however. Nightengale reports that the club has “balked” at the asking price from Snell’s camp, which he adds stands at a $60MM guarantee over two years that includes an opt-out following the 2024 season. Houston, Nightengale adds, is conscious of being pushed over an additional luxury tax threshold by a Snell deal with an AAV in the $30MM range. Nightengale goes on to suggest that the Giants currently appear to be the favorites for Snell’s services, though he makes clear that San Francisco has been waiting for Snell’s price to drop even as they’ve remained engaged with the southpaw.
It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Astros would be worried about stomaching a $30MM annual commitment for Snell’s services. The club is already in unprecedented territory with regards to its player payroll; Cot’s Baseball Contracts notes that Houston has never entered a season with a projected payroll above their $187MM figure from the 2021 season, but RosterResource projects the club to blow that figure out of the water this year with a whopping $240MM payroll entering the 2024 campaign. That figure reaches nearly $256MM for luxury tax purposes, just over $1MM shy of the second, $257MM tax threshold.
Virtually any addition to the club’s payroll at any point this season would push them past that level, but a more significant addition such as Snell would leave the club at risk of going over the third threshold, which stands at $277MM for the 2024 season. While the first two brackets of the luxury tax come with only financial considerations, the penalties get stiffer when a clubs surpasses the third threshold. Those penalties most notably include the club’s highest pick in the following year’s draft being pushed back ten places, which is further compounded by an associated cut to the club’s bonus pool for signing their draft picks that year. Given the elevated costs involved with a pursuit of Snell, it was hardly surprising when GM Dana Brown suggested that the club wasn’t interested in pursuing additional starting pitching this spring, even name-dropping Snell specifically as a player the club would “love to have” but didn’t expect to sign.
Of course, it’s hard to overstate just how impactful Snell could be for the Astros rotation even in spite of those ancillary concerns. Right-handers Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis García Jr. are both set to open the season on the injured list and miss considerable time this season. They’ll also be joined at least for the early days of the campaign by veteran ace Justin Verlander, whose start to the season has been delayed soreness in his right shoulder. Those injuries leave the club’s rotation depth in an tough spot entering the season, and a recent injury scare regarding Jose Urquidy has only exacerbated those concerns. KRPC2’s Ari Alexander reported recently that Urquidy has been dealing with “forearm stiffness” per a source, while manager Joe Espada told reporters yesterday that the right-hander has flown back to Houston from the club’s spring complex in Florida to meet with team doctors.
Losing Urquidy could leave the club to rely on depth options such as Hunter Brown, J.P. France, and Ronel Blanco behind a front-of-the-rotation duo featuring Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier, at least for the start of the season. Adding Snell to that mix would not only give the club much-needed additional pitching depth early in the season, but would also add an impactful, playoff-caliber arm to a rotation that saw each of Verlander, Valdez, and Javier take steps back in 2023 from the 2022 form that saw the group stand among the very best starting trios in baseball that year. While Snell certainly has flashed inconsistencies of his own throughout his career, posting a relatively pedestrian 3.85 ERA and 3.44 FIP from 2019 to 2022, he’s nonetheless ranged from a dependable mid-rotation arm to an elite, front-of-the-rotation flamethrower throughout his eight years in the majors and would be a surefire upgrade to an Astros club looking to make an eighth consecutive postseason appearance this fall.
On the other hand, Snell would provide all those same benefits to the Giants. San Francisco has had a busy offseason, bringing in Bob Melvin to replace Gabe Kapler in the managers’ chair while adding the likes of Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler, Jung Hoo Lee, and Jordan Hicks in free agency. With that being said, the club has done little to address a rotation mix that delivered the least innings among all major league clubs last year. Hicks has moved from the bullpen into the rotation since joining San Francisco, and the club could also receive a boost from trade acquisition Robbie Ray midseason upon his return from Tommy John surgery sometimes this summer. With Ray, Alex Cobb, and Tristan Beck all set to open the season on the injured list, however, it leaves the club with minimal certainty in the rotation behind staff ace Logan Webb.
Given how much the club would benefit from another front-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Webb, it’s not a surprise that the Giants continue to be involved in Snell’s market. Despite comments from club chairman Greg Johnson back in February that suggested the club planned to rely on young rotation arms such as Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn entering the 2024 season, reporting has indicated that San Francisco has remained in the mix for Snell in recent weeks, though the club has signaled that it did not anticipate further major additions after signing Chapman earlier this month.
While it’s unclear how far Snell’s price would have to fall for San Francisco to pounce, the club’s books figure to have far more flexibility than those in Houston. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $177MM entering the 2024 season, likely leaving ample room for the club to fit Snell into the budget. While the club’s luxury tax payroll stands at a somewhat higher $226MM figure, even an AAV approaching Snell’s reported $30MM asking price would leave the club just a touch under the second luxury tax threshold.
Bob Melvin Discusses Giants' Rotation Options
- The Giants are set to enter the regular season with little certainty in their starting rotation behind staff ace Logan Webb. With veterans Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray starting the season on the injured list where they’ll be joined by youngsters like Tristan Beck and Sean Hjelle, the club figures to lean on offseason signing Jordan Hicks and top prospect Kyle Harrison to fill out the middle of its rotation. That still leaves two spots undecided, however, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle noted today that manager Bob Melvin brought up right-handed rookie Mason Black as one arm the club is likely to turn to for a rotation spot this season. Black, 24, was the club’s third-round pick in the 2021 draft and posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 29 starts split between the Double- and Triple-A levels last year. Slusser adds that other possibilities for the final spots in the rotation and/or bullpen mix are fellow youngster Keaton Winn and non-roster veterans Daulton Jefferies and Spencer Howard. Of course, that could all change if the club’s reported run at left-hander Blake Snell were to bear fruit.
