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Giants Place J.D. Davis On Waivers

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The Giants have placed third baseman J.D. Davis on waivers, FanSided’s Robert Murray writes (via X).  The move comes just a week after San Francisco signed Matt Chapman, which seemed to make Davis an odd man out in the team’s corner infield picture.

With Chapman now at third base, Jorge Soler at DH, and LaMonte Wade Jr. and Wilmer Flores slated as a platoon tandem at first base, there wasn’t much room for Davis to find everyday playing time, making him something of an overqualified bench piece.  Chapman’s contract came after months of speculation that he would eventually land in San Francisco to re-unite with his former manager Bob Melvin, so really, trade rumors have been surrounding Davis for much of the offseason.

The waiver-wire move indicates that a trade couldn’t be found, yet that doesn’t mean that there isn’t interest in Davis’ services.  It could be that rival clubs weren’t willing to meet whatever asking price Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi was seeking, and were content to wait and see if Davis would just end up available to be claimed.  By that same logic, it seems possible that Davis might also clear waivers entirely if no team wants to assume the $6.9MM salary he is owed for the 2024 season, after an arbitration panel ruled in Davis’ favor at a hearing last month.

The fact that Davis went to a hearing provides an interesting wrinkle to his salary situation, as per the terms of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement.  Salaries for arbitration-eligible players are not fully guaranteed until they make the Opening Day roster, or (as noted by Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area) unless they agree to a salary without going to a hearing — your standard “team and player have avoided arbitration” situation.

However, in going to a hearing, Davis could be subject to the CBA clause stating that San Francisco can part ways with him for a prorated portion of his $6.9MM salary.  That prorated sum will be 30 days’ worth of termination pay if Davis is released earlier than 16 days prior to the start of the Giants’ season (their first game is on March 28), and 45 days’ worth of pay if he is released after that 16-day checkpoint.  Davis might well have grounds for a grievance if the Giants try this tactic, as he has been tearing it up at the plate in Spring Training, and could therefore argue that he isn’t being released “for failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability,” as detailed in the CBA wording.

Barring a potential grievance, the Giants would save roughly $5.793MM by releasing Davis before the 16-day threshold.  It isn’t an insignificant sum, especially for a team that is approaching luxury tax status.  RosterResource projects the Giants for a tax number of just under $231.3MM, leaving the club with only a little breathing room before hitting the $237MM tax line.  Given how the Giants have pursued several high-salaried stars in recent years, paying the tax altogether probably isn’t seen as a huge barrier for ownership or the front office, yet naturally the team would ideally like to pay as little tax as possible.  San Francisco could potentially still be adding another big salary to the ledger before Opening Day, as the Giants remain linked to top starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery on the rumor mill.

Davis hit .248/.325/.413 with 18 homers over 546 plate appearances with San Francisco in 2023, as hot starts and finishes to the season bookended a pretty severe slump over the summer months.  The offensive production translated to a 104 wRC+, which is drop from the 118 wRC+ Davis posted over his first six MLB seasons with the Astros, Mets, and Giants.

While Davis’ bat has long been pretty solid, he has been something of a man without a defensive position.  The public metrics give him decent grades over 287 2/3 innings as a first baseman, though Davis’ work at third base has generally been considered subpar.  His 2023 performance drew at least mixed reviews, as Outs Above Average (+5) and UZR/150 (+0.8) had a positive view of his third base glovework, while the Defensive Runs Saved (-11) metric was much less impressed.

On paper, the Cubs, Brewers, Blue Jays, Rays, Nationals, Rangers, Guardians, Mariners, White Sox, Athletics, and Padres are teams that all have clear or hypothetical needs at either corner infield position or at DH, so any could potentially fit as Davis’ next landing spot.  Even a relatively modest $6.9MM salary could provide an obstacle in some of these situations, and the presence of such other free agents (such as J.D. Martinez, Brandon Belt, or Evan Longoria) who could fill at least one of Davis’ positions might further complicate his market.

Giants Notes: Cobb, Hjelle, Black

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The Giants have made a pair of key late-offseason additions to the offense, adding Jorge Soler and Matt Chapman since the opening of Spring Training. They join new center fielder Jung Hoo Lee in an overhauled lineup, leaving the starting rotation as the glaring question.

San Francisco has been frequently tied to top remaining starter Blake Snell, in part because of injuries to some of their in-house options. Robbie Ray, Alex Cobb, Tristan Beck and Sean Hjelle are all likely to begin the season on the injured list. However, Cobb appears slightly ahead of schedule as he works back from last year’s hip labrum repair.

The veteran righty got through a 25-pitch bullpen session yesterday and will throw live batting practice early next week. Manager Bob Melvin told reporters that while the team will be cautious not to push Cobb too quickly, they’ve “probably sped (the timeline) up a little bit” based on his progress (via MLB.com). The team announced a six-month recovery timetable for Cobb to log game action of any kind when he underwent surgery on Halloween.

It now looks as if he could be on track for a minor league rehab assignment earlier than that. To this point, the Giants have kept him off the 60-day injured list — a move that would prevent him from pitching at the MLB level before May 27.

The Giants also provided an encouraging update on Hjelle, who was diagnosed with an elbow sprain earlier in the week. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that he’s on track to begin a throwing program in one week after receiving a second opinion. The team had announced on Tuesday that Hjelle would be down for two weeks before going for reevaluation. The injury almost certainly still rules him out of the season-opening rotation mix, but it’s a positive development that his complete shutdown won’t last too long.

San Francisco has three locks for the Opening Day rotation: Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks. Righty Keaton Winn is the frontrunner for the #4 job. He was delayed early in camp with what seems to be minor elbow soreness and is still expected to be ready for Opening Day. Unless the Giants dip into free agency for someone like Snell, Jordan Montgomery or Michael Lorenzen, the fifth spot will be up for grabs.

Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic tweets that former third-round pick Mason Black “appears poised” to take a season-opening rotation job. The Lehigh product was scheduled for his third start of Spring Training this evening, but the game was rained out. He has logged five innings over his first two appearances, allowing three runs on six hits with three strikeouts.

Black, a 24-year-old righty, is not on the 40-man roster and has yet to make his MLB debut. He split last season almost evenly between the two highest levels of the minors. Black combined for a strong 3.71 ERA while striking out an excellent 30.3% of opposing hitters across 123 2/3 innings. He issued a few too many walks in a very hitter-friendly environment in Triple-A but hasn’t handed out a free pass yet this spring. Baseball America recently ranked him the #8 prospect in the organization, crediting him with a plus sinker/slider combination and fine if unexceptional control.

Giants, Justin Garza Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Giants are in agreement with reliever Justin Garza on a minor league deal, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link). The right-hander is expected to report to minor league camp, Alexander adds.

That indicates Garza won’t be on the radar for a spot in the Opening Day bullpen. He’ll presumably start the season at Triple-A Sacramento and seek a midseason call-up. The Fullerton product has pitched in the majors in two of the past three years. He logged 21 appearances in Cleveland in 2021. After spending the ’22 campaign in Triple-A, he returned to the big leagues with 17 outings as a low-leverage arm for the Red Sox last season.

Garza has yet to find much success against big league hitters. He posted a 4.71 ERA in his rookie season and allowed 7.36 earned runs per nine for Boston. Garza managed only an 18.7% strikeout percentage and walked upwards of 13% of batters faced for the Sox. He has given up a lot of hard contact in each of his MLB stints.

Things have gone a bit more smoothly in the upper minors. Garza owns a solid 3.98 ERA over parts of three Triple-A campaigns. He has fanned an above-average 27.7% of opposing hitters at that level. Throwing strikes consistently has still been an issue, but the 29-year-old (30 later this month) has shown the ability to miss bats against upper level hitters. He has averaged just under 95 MPH on his sinker in his big league work.

Garza has two minor league options remaining. If the Giants call on him at any point, they could move him between Oracle Park and Sacramento without exposing him to waivers.

MLBTR Podcast: The Giants Sign Chapman, Zack Wheeler’s Extension, And Snell And Montgomery Remain

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Giants sign Matt Chapman (2:50)
  • Why do the Giants and other clubs keep giving players these opt-out deals? (6:45)
  • What is the logic with Chapman and Cody Bellinger settling for these short-term deals? (10:20)
  • What’s next for the Giants? Will they trade J.D. Davis? Go after Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery? (13:50)
  • Why didn’t the Yankees or Mariners go after Chapman? (17:00)
  • Phillies sign Zack Wheeler to extension (18:30)
  • Should players focus more on guarantees or average annual values? (20:15)
  • Did Shohei Ohtani not push things forward enough for players? (22:15)
  • Was Wheeler not concerned about maximizing his guarantee? (25:10)
  • What does the future look like for the Phillies? (26:35)
  • What’s up with Snell and Montgomery now? Could the Orioles swoop in? (29:35)
  • Does the Lucas Giolito news spur the Red Sox to jump on Snell or Montgomery? (31:20)
  • What about other dark horses for Snell or Montgomery? (34:15)
  • The case for the Brewers being a dark horse (35:55)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Is the late signing by the Boras clients a result of just how the market played out or the strategy of holding out? How does Boras spin this? (39:15)
  • Are we seeing the end of the Scott Boras era? Especially with players more to their mid-30s. I’m not sure how you could objectively look at how the offseason has gone for his clients and think it was a win for them. (44:45)

Check out our past episodes!

  • How Cody Bellinger’s Deal Affects The Other Free Agents And Why The Offseason Played Out Like This – listen here
  • Finding Fits For The “Boras Four,” Which Teams Could Still Spend? And Rob Manfred In His Last Term – listen here
  • Jorge Soler, Veteran Catcher Signings and the Padres’ Payroll Crunch – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Will The Giants Trade J.D. Davis?

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Trade rumors regarding J.D. Davis have been prevalent throughout the offseason. The Giants were linked to Matt Chapman for nearly four months before getting a deal done last week. Now that Chapman has displaced Davis from the starting lineup, there’s again speculation about a subsequent trade.

The Giants signing Chapman doesn’t seem to have been conditional on a Davis trade, as the latter remains on the San Francisco roster five days later. Davis is probably overqualified for a bench role. He has played fairly regularly over the past five seasons between the Mets and Giants. Davis has turned in above-average offensive numbers in each of those seasons, although last year’s .248/.325/.413 slash line was his weakest since he established himself as a regular.

Davis has received some criticism for his glove. Public metrics had almost unanimously graded him as a below-average defender until last season. There was a split in his defensive grades in 2023. Defensive Runs Saved still considered him among the worst third basemen in the league, grading him 11 runs below average. Statcast, by contrast, viewed his work as four runs better than par. No one would consider Davis comparable to Chapman with the glove, but pairing average or better defense with his power potential would make him a good everyday player.

That alone doesn’t mean the Giants need to trade him. San Francisco could keep him on hand as a quality depth option for this season. It’s not an ideal roster fit. Beyond Chapman, the Giants have Wilmer Flores as a righty-hitting corner infielder and will use Jorge Soler at designated hitter.

While Davis would have the ability to pursue an everyday third base job in free agency next winter, he doesn’t have much recourse right now. He said over the weekend that he’s willing to do “whatever the team needs,” even as he called the signing “definitely surprising” and stated he was unaware the team was adding Chapman before it was reported publicly (comments relayed by John Shea and Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle).

Carrying Davis in a limited role is a suboptimal outcome for the Giants. He’s making $6.9MM after winning an arbitration hearing. That’s a lot to commit for a player used sparsely off the bench. Yet even if the Giants decide they’d prefer to offload Davis’ salary, Chapman’s late signing date could complicate those efforts.

A number of teams have publicly declared they’re near or at the level at which they’re willing to spend. Some clubs might view Davis as a slight upgrade over their in-house third basemen but not want to add a near-$7MM salary less than three weeks before Opening Day. Free agent spending on infielders was down all offseason and has gone particularly cold in recent weeks. Players like Tim Anderson ($5MM), Amed Rosario ($1.5MM) and Gio Urshela ($1.5MM) inked one-year pacts for salaries below what Davis will command. The Urshela contract, in particular, doesn’t point to a robust demand for third basemen.

Where will that leave the Giants? Will whatever trade interest they receive in Davis over the next few weeks be strong enough that they deem it preferable to keeping him?

 

Giants’ Tristan Beck Won’t Throw For Eight Weeks; Sean Hjelle Diagnosed With Elbow Sprain

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The Giants announced this morning that right-hander Tristan Beck underwent successful surgery to repair an aneurysm in his right shoulder. He won’t throw for at least eight weeks. San Francisco also announced that right-hander Sean Hjelle has an elbow sprain and will be reevaluated in two weeks’ time. That represents a further blow to the team’s pitching depth, though Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic tweets that Hjelle’s ulnar collateral ligament is intact. A timetable for his return won’t be known until that reevaluation, however.

It’s already been known that Beck would be facing a long absence after testing late last month found the aneurysm. The Giants placed him on the 60-day injured list this week when opening a roster spot for newly signed Matt Chapman. An eight-week shutdown period would stretch from now until April 30. Beck would then need to slowly ramp up, starting with light throwing on flat ground, to pitching off a mound, to facing live hitters and eventually pitching in minor league rehab games.

That process would require more than a month, in all likelihood, putting a potential return date somewhere in June, at the earliest. Of course, that’s all contingent on avoiding any setbacks and on Beck’s body recovering as hoped. The Giants will surely have updates along the way.

The news on Hjelle likely subtracts another depth option who could’ve stepped up to help fill Beck’s spot early in the season. Hjelle, a towering 6’11” 26-year-old, posted strong numbers in Double-A back in 2021 but has since struggled both as a starter and reliever in Triple-A and in the big leagues. The former second-round pick worked primarily as a starter in Triple-A Sacramento last year, struggling to a 6.00 ERA in 19 starts (plus three relief appearances) in that ultra-hitter-friendly setting. He made another 15 relief appearances with the big league club, posting 29 innings with a similarly disheartening 6.52 earned run average.

Hjelle sports an unsightly 6.17 ERA in 54 MLB innings but his 23.2% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and huge 56% ground-ball rate all portend better results over a larger sample. He’s been plagued by a sky-high .399 average on balls in play despite yielding just an 89 mph average exit velocity. Metrics like FIP (3.89) and SIERA (3.35) feel Hjelle has been far, far better in his limited big league time than his ERA would indicate.

Giants skipper Bob Melvin had already called out Hjelle as someone who could perhaps move into a rotation role to help compensate for the injury to Beck and provide some insurance in the event that right-hander Keaton Winn’s elbow issue flares back up. (Winn was briefly shut down earlier in camp due to a nerve issue but has since resumed throwing without issue.) Instead, it appears quite likely that Hjelle will also open the season on the injured list. A two-week period without throwing will conclude with just over a week to go until Opening Day. Even if Hjelle were able to immediate pitch in games — which seems unlikely — it’s hard to imagine him ramping up to the point where he could be a viable rotation option.

At the moment, the Giants’ rotation consists of Logan Webb, top prospect Kyle Harrison, reliever-turned-starter Jordan Hicks and the aforementioned Winn. A competition for the fifth spot could include trade acquisition Ethan Small, prospect Kai-Wei Teng (already on the 40-man roster) and perhaps in-house nonroster pitchers like Carson Whisenhunt and Mason Black.

It was a perilously thin group even when all of Winn, Beck and Hjelle looked healthy. The Giants have been banking on this mix to carry them into the middle portion of the season. Alex Cobb will open on the injured list while rehabbing from October hip surgery but could be back within the first couple months of the season. Trade acquisition Robbie Ray is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and will be out until the final third of the season or so. Injuries to Beck and to Hjelle have only further called into question whether such an unproven group can steady the course until the Giants’ more veteran reinforcements arrive.

The Giants have been active in free agency late in the offseason, with signings of Chapman and Jorge Soler both completed after the beginning of spring training. Even with that pair of additions — plus their earlier pickups of Hicks and center fielder Jung Hoo Lee — reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell is reportedly still a consideration. Fellow southpaw Jordan Montgomery is also still on the market, as are lower-tier arms like Mike Clevinger, Michael Lorenzen, Eric Lauer and others.

San Francisco currently projects for a payroll just under $182MM, per RosterResource. Their projected luxury tax ledger currently sits at $231MM — just $6MM or so shy of the first threshold. Signing Snell or Montgomery will assuredly put the team over that line, and Snell would require further forfeitures in the amateur draft and international free agency. The Giants already punted their second-highest pick and $500K of next year’s international bonus pool space to sign Chapman; Snell would require surrendering their third-round pick and an additional $500K of international spending capacity. Both players would also result in the Giants paying a 20% tax for the first $20MM by which the luxury barrier is exceeded, plus a 32% tax on the next $20MM.

It’s possible that even Lorenzen or Clevinger could push the Giants into tax territory, although there are other moves that could be made to counteract that. The signing of Chapman, for instance, could make J.D. Davis and his $6.9MM salary more expendable. If the Giants were able to move Davis and some/all of that salary, they could create as much as $13MM in breathing room between themselves and the $237MM tax line.

Giants’ Farhan Zaidi Discusses Pitching, Possible Further Major Acquisitions

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With the Matt Chapman signing now official, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi met with reporters (including NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic and the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser) on a Zoom call.  In regards to the chance that more significant moves might still happen before Opening Day, Zaidi indicated that Chapman’s contract might mark the end of the Giants’ heavy lifting.

“I’ll say what I said last time we talked after we signed [Jorge] Soler — the offseason is really over as far as we’re concerned,” Zaidi said.  “We’re more in in-season mode, which doesn’t mean you can’t make additions, but it’s a different dynamic because we’re really focused on the players that we have and how they’re all going to fit together.”

It was a little over two weeks ago that Zaidi also spoke with the media after Soler’s signing, when the PBO noted that “It’s a little bit more disruptive to add at this point.  Anybody who’s a free agent, we’ve theoretically had three and a half months to figure out a deal and if it hasn’t happened yet, at some point organizationally, you just need to turn the page and focus on the players you have….At this point, the calendar makes any further additions unlikely.”

Of course, as Pavlovic observed, Chapman was then signed in the aftermath of those initial comments, so Zaidi’s statement today could and probably should be taken with some natural skepticism.  Multiple reports surfaced yesterday that Blake Snell was still a target for San Francisco even in the aftermath of Chapman’s arrival, and Zaidi didn’t deny that talks had closed off on Snell or any other possible additions.  “The easiest thing is to say we can’t rule it out,” Zaidi said.  “We don’t have some planned sequence of moves here and don’t feel like anything is imminent there, but we’re going to continue to look for ways to improve the team.”

In the absence of any more newcomers, the Giants’ rotation continues to look like Logan Webb, converted reliever Jordan Hicks, and then a host of prospects with little to no Major League experience.  The highly-touted Kyle Harrison (34 2/3 career big league innings) will be getting an extended look at a rotation job, Keaton Winn (42 1/3 career innings) projects as the fourth starter, and a whole host of pitchers could now get a shot at the fifth starter’s role since Tristan Beck will begin the season on the 60-day injured list.

Despite this lack of proven starting depth, Zaidi is excited to see what the in-house arms can do.  “Our plan all along has been to give our young pitchers opportunities and to try to create a defense that would support them in their transition and that’s one of the reasons Matt was such a priority….We want to elevate our young pitchers.  There’s uncertainty that comes from the fact that there’s a lack of familiarity. Young pitchers are definitionally not household names, but we think that the more they get a chance to prove themselves, you sort of have to take the leap with them at some point and this is something we’ve been planning for a couple of years, to get younger in our rotation and give these guys the opportunity to win jobs.”

Beyond just the prospects, Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb are expected to bolster the rotation when the two veterans return from the injured list.  Ray’s recovery from Tommy John surgery will keep him out until at least midseason, and Cobb underwent hip surgery at the end of October and was given an estimated return timeline of roughly six months.

Cobb has already been working out in spring camp, and it seems as though the right-hander is on track to at least meet if not better that timeline.  Zaidi said that Cobb is expected back “relatively soon in the year,” and Pavlovic noted that the Giants haven’t put Cobb on the 60-day injured list, which would rule him out until the end of May.

Giants Sign Matt Chapman

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MARCH 3: The Giants officially announced Chapman’s signing and the terms, with the additional detail that the contract includes a mutual option covering the 2027 season.

Chapman will receive a $2MM signing bonus and a $16MM salary in 2024, plus a $2MM buyout on the $17MM player option for 2025.  If the third baseman remains in his contract through the 2025 season, he’ll have an $18MM player option for 2026 with a $3MM buyout attached.  Should he remain in his contract through those three seasons, Chapman and the Giants will share a $20MM mutual option for the 2027 season, with a $1MM buyout if either party declines their side of the option.

MARCH 1: Matt Chapman is headed back to the Bay Area. The four-time Gold Glove winner has reportedly agreed to terms with the Giants on a three-year, $54MM guarantee. The Boras Corporation client can opt out after each of the next two seasons.

He’ll make $20MM this season, followed by successive $18MM and $16MM player options. The contract has an $18MM average annual value for competitive balance tax purposes. San Francisco will need to make a 40-man roster move once the deal is finalized.

Chapman, 31 next month, reunites with Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and manager Bob Melvin. He’s familiar with both from his early days with the A’s. Chapman was a first-round pick by Oakland in 2014 and debuted three years later. He stepped in as one of the sport’s best all-around players.

The Cal State Fullerton product put up a .255/.336/.503 batting line through his first three and a half seasons. He paired that with the best third base defense in the American League. Chapman finished among the top 10 in AL MVP balloting in 2018 and ’19, securing Gold Glove honors in both years.

Chapman’s 2020 season was cut short by a labrum tear in his right hip. He underwent surgery that September, shutting him down for the year. While it wasn’t clear at the time, that injury has proven to be something of a turning point in his career. His offensive production hasn’t been the same since he made his return.

The right-handed hitter stumbled to a career-worst .210/.314/.403 line in 2021. The A’s dealt him to the Blue Jays the following offseason. Chapman’s offensive production ticked up slightly in Toronto, but he hasn’t found his 2018-19 form outside of a scorching April last year.

After a .229/.324/.433 showing in 2022, Chapman entered his platform season looking to reestablish himself as a middle-of-the-order force. He began the year as the hottest hitter on the planet. Chapman mashed at a .384/.465/.687 clip through the end of April. While he’d cut his strikeout rate to a 22.8% mark in the season’s first month, his whiffs spiked as the summer approached. A dismal May kicked off what proved to be a disappointing finish to his Jays tenure.

Over his final 467 plate appearances, Chapman hit .205/.298/.361 with a strikeout rate near 30%. By the second half, he was often hitting in the bottom third of the lineup. The Jays briefly sent him to the injured list in late August for a sprain of the middle finger on his right hand. It’s possible that had an adverse effect on his offense, but the biggest concern is that he didn’t sustain the strides in contact rate he had seemed to make early on.

That presented a tough evaluation for teams as he hit the open market for the first time. Even if he’s no longer an MVP-caliber player, Chapman is still an above-average regular. He has drawn walks in more than 10% of his plate appearances in each of the last three seasons. He connected on 27 homers in both 2021 and ’22. That dipped to 17 longballs a year ago, yet that’s not a reflection of a drop in his contact quality.

Chapman actually hit the ball harder than ever last season, averaging 93.5 MPH in exit velocity. He made hard contact (defined as 95+ MPH) on 56.4% of batted balls. That was the highest rate for any qualified hitter in the majors, narrowly ahead of impact bats like former teammate Matt Olson, Juan Soto, Ronald Acuña Jr., Rafael Devers and Shohei Ohtani.

He remains an asset on the other side of the ball. Chapman’s defensive grades aren’t quite as eye-popping as they were early in his career, but he’s still a plus at third base. Both Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved have rated him as an above-average defender in every season of his career. That includes an estimated three runs better than par by Statcast and an excellent +12 mark from DRS over more than 1200 innings last season.

Infield defense was an issue for the Giants, particularly on the left side. San Francisco led longtime shortstop Brandon Crawford walk in free agency. They’re set to turn that position to 22-year-old Marco Luciano. Incumbent third baseman J.D. Davis drew mixed reviews from defensive metrics last season. There’s no question that Chapman will be an upgrade on that side of the ball. While there had been some speculation the Giants could consider kicking Chapman up the defensive spectrum to shortstop, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that he’ll stick at the hot corner at Oracle Park.

San Francisco has targeted Chapman throughout the offseason, having been tied to him as early as the middle of November. They were content to wait out the market as he was one of a handful of top free agents who lingered well into Spring Training.

A $54MM guarantee certainly isn’t what his camp had in mind at the beginning of the offseason. Chapman had reportedly declined a 10-year, $150MM extension offer from the A’s back in 2019. He also reportedly passed on an offer from Toronto that would’ve topped $100MM at some point before he got to free agency. Whatever asking price he had set at the beginning of the winter wasn’t met. As with fellow Boras Corporation client Cody Bellinger, Chapman turned to a short-term deal that gives him the chance to get back to the market next offseason instead.

He was one of seven players to receive and decline a qualifying offer in November. The QO would have been valued at $20.325MM, a hair above what he now stands to make next season. This contract structure is certainly preferable to taking the qualifying offer — there’s added security built in via the player options in case he struggles or suffers an injury — but the end result could be similar. The likeliest outcome is that he collects a $20MM salary in 2024 and retests the market next winter.

It remains to be seen if it would treat him more kindly the next time around. He’d be entering his age-32 season with a profile that is heavily dependent on defense. Chapman won’t be eligible for another qualifying offer — players can’t receive that more than once in their careers, per the CBA — but he’s unlikely to be the clear top free agent at the position, as he was this winter. Alex Bregman headlines next year’s third base class, which will also include Davis.

The Giants surrender their second-highest pick in the upcoming draft (#51 overall) and $500K in international signing bonus space to add a player who had declined the QO. The Jays were one of eight teams that paid the luxury tax last season, so their compensation is minimal. They’ll get an extra draft choice after the fourth round, roughly 136th overall.

It’s a bigger penalty for the Giants than it is compensation for Toronto. It’s one the Giants are nevertheless happy to pay to get Chapman at a price well below what they could have expected coming into the offseason. (MLBTR predicted he’d receive six-year, $150MM pact at the start of the winter.) The contract pushes their 2024 player payroll to roughly $183MM, as calculated by RosterResource. They’re around $231MM in luxury tax obligations, keeping them $6MM shy of next year’s threshold.

If they want to avoid the CBT, that wouldn’t leave a ton of room for in-season acquisitions. It’s possible they’re comfortable exceeding the threshold for the first time since 2017. San Francisco has been tied to Blake Snell (and to a much lesser extent) Jordan Montgomery. They’re still in clear need of rotation help, particularly after expected #5 starter Tristan Beck underwent surgery on Friday to address an aneurysm.

Forfeiting a draft choice to sign Chapman to a contract that allows him to opt out after one season is the clearest win-now move of San Francisco’s offseason. They’ve also brought in Jung Hoo Lee to take center field, Jorge Soler at designated hitter, and signed Jordan Hicks to a four-year pact to transition to the rotation. Revamping the lineup to that extent without adding more certainty behind Logan Webb, Hicks, and rookie Kyle Harrison seems unlikely.

Davis is set for a $6.9MM salary in his final season of arbitration and just lost his spot in the starting lineup. Soler and Wilmer Flores are ahead of him as right-handed hitters who’ll factor in at DH at first base, respectively. Flipping Davis to a team that needs third base help before Opening Day could clear spending room for the Giants and seems the best outcome for him personally. There’s very likely more to come at Oracle Park in the next three weeks.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the agreement, opt-outs, and salary breakdown. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Giants Place Tristan Beck On 60-Day Injured List

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TODAY: The Giants placed Beck on the 60-day injured list, to create 40-man roster space for the team’s acquisition of Matt Chapman.

MARCH 1: Giants right-hander Tristan Beck told reporters, including Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic, that he will undergo vascular surgery on Monday at Stanford to address the aneurysm in his upper right arm. He won’t have a timetable for his return until after going under the knife.

Earlier this week, it was reported that Beck was dealing with some discomfort in his throwing arm, which was eventually diagnosed as an aneurysm. It seems a decision has been made that surgical intervention is necessary. Although the timetable won’t be clear until next week when the procedure has been completed, this further creates uncertainty in the San Francisco rotation, which already stood out as a weak part of the roster.

Right-hander Alex Cobb underwent hip surgery last year and will begin the season on the injured list. Trade acquisition Robbie Ray is recovering from UCL/flexor tendon surgery and won’t be back until the All-Star break at the earliest.

The Giants have long known about both of those situations but nonetheless came into camp with a rotation consisting of Logan Webb and a series of unknowns. Jordan Hicks will be looking to move from a relief role to a starting role, something he has never done before. Webb and Hicks were likely to be joined by youngsters like Kyle Harrison, Keaton Winn and Beck. All three of those guys have shown promise but none of that trio has more than 85 innings in the bigs.

For a club planning to contend, that’s a lot of rotation uncertainty, which has become more questionable in recent weeks. Winn was dealing with some elbow soreness last week and although he could still be ready for Opening Day, there’s at least a bit of murkiness there. The latest developments with Beck only compound the concerns around the club’s rotation depth.

If the Giants decide they need to add to this group, there are still options available in free agency. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are still out there and the Giants have reportedly expressed interest in both, though a deal has clearly not come together to this point. The club has generally avoided spending on pitching, with the four-year deal for Hicks being the longest since Farhan Zaidi became president of baseball operations in November of 2018, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. The $44MM guarantee for Hicks also matches Carlos Rodón’s two-year deal for the largest guarantee the club has given a pitcher in that time. If the club wants to avoid a huge deal for Snell or Montgomery, they could also pivot to someone more affordable like Michael Lorenzen, Eric Lauer or Jake Odorizzi.

If they don’t look to external additions, then the internal candidates to step up and take a rotation job would include Sean Hjelle, Kai-Wei Teng, Daulton Jefferies and Spencer Howard. Hjelle had an ERA of 6.00 in Triple-A last year and a mark of 6.52 working out of the big league bullpen. Teng has yet to make his major league debut. Jefferies has lost most of the past two years due to undergoing both thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in June of 2022 and then Tommy John surgery that September. Howard has a 7.20 ERA in his major league career and has a 5.01 ERA in the minors over the past two years.

Giants Still Interested In Blake Snell

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The Giants made another major addition yesterday with the signing of Matt Chapman, and might not yet be done with their March shopping.  Both Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle and Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area report that Blake Snell remains a target for the club, as the Giants continue to have a pressing need in the rotation.

Chapman’s deal contains two opt-out clauses, but in its full form is a three-year, $54MM guarantee.  That puts San Francisco’s payroll at just over $183MM (as per RosterResource’s projections) and, more importantly, its luxury tax figure at roughly $230.5MM — only slightly below the $237MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold.  Even if Snell were to also accept a shorter-term contract laden with opt-outs, his salary would obviously send the Giants sailing over that first tax tier and closer to the secondary tier of $257MM.

The Giants haven’t exceeded the CBT line since 2017, yet given the team’s high-profile bids for star free agents (i.e. Carlos Correa, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto) in recent years, the tax threshold is hardly viewed as a barrier to spending.  If Snell and his representatives at the Boras Corporation are open to a shorter-term deal deal akin to Chapman’s, the idea that San Francisco could sign both players for perhaps something close to the total number projected for just one of the duo at the start of the offseason would count as a valuable bargain, and seemingly well worth what might be a temporary tax hit.  Michael Conforto’s contract is off the books after next season, Chapman could opt out, and Snell could opt out as well in this scenario.

Signing Snell would come at an additional cost to the Giants than just money, since both Snell and Chapman rejected qualifying offers.  Signing Chapman cost San Francisco its second-highest pick (the 51st overall selection) in the 2024 draft as well as $500K in international signing pool money, and signing Snell would cost the Giants another $500K from their pool, plus their third-highest pick in the upcoming draft.  While every draft pick is valued, giving up a second pick might again be seen as an acceptable loss for the Giants if it means landing Snell, either at a relative discount price or simply because the team is sorely in need of pitching help.

The rotation appeared to be a priority heading into the offseason, yet the Giants addressed the situation in a somewhat uncertain fashion by signing Jordan Hicks and acquiring Robbie Ray from the Mariners.  Hicks has worked primarily as a reliever over his Major League career, and Ray will be out until around midseason as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery.  Since Alex Cobb will be sidelined until May at the earliest due to his own recovery from hip surgery, the Giants were seemingly prepared to roll with a rotation of ace Logan Webb, Hicks, and a group of rookies headlined by star prospect Kyle Harrison until Cobb and Ray were ready to return.

However, those plans took a hit with yesterday’s news that Tristan Beck will be undergoing surgery to correct an aneurysm in his upper right arm.  Keaton Winn looks to be on track for Opening Day after a bout of nerve-related elbow discomfort, but these injuries have only highlighted the unsteady nature of San Francisco’s pitching plans.  An argument can clearly be made that adding another starter would greatly help the situation, whether more of a stopgap veteran like Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger, or a front-of-the-rotation type like Jordan Montgomery or Snell.

Even though Snell won his second career Cy Young Award in 2023, questions have persisted about Snell’s viability as a long-term investment.  He has averaged just over 124 innings per season during his eight years in the big leagues, and he has pitched into the eighth inning in only five of his 191 career starts.  Snell has also been prone to giving up a lot of hard contact at times, and his walk rates have been decidedly below average for his entire career.

This doesn’t seem to be the profile that would match Farhan Zaidi’s preferred model for pitching contracts, as the Giants president of baseball operations has long been hesitant about signing pitchers to particularly lengthy commitments.  A shorter-term deal with opt-outs might solve that issue, and Snell is reportedly open to considering such offers, though it remains to be seen if there might still be enough late interest for the left-hander to score a more lucrative deal.  The Yankees and Angels have been linked to Snell’s market, and other suitors could potentially emerge if another injury situation develops during Spring Training.

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