Giants Re-Sign Tim Lincecum
The Giants have re-signed right-hander Tim Lincecum to a two-year contract, which will keep the two-time NL Cy Young Award winner from reaching free agency. The club officially announced the deal today after Lincecum passed a physical. As shown in the MLBTR Agency Database, Lincecum is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.
Financial terms weren't officially disclosed but the contract is believed to be worth $35MM and Lincecum will recieve full no-trade protection, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (Twitter links). The deal will pay Lincecum $17MM in 2014 and $18MM in 2015, according to Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com (Twitter link).
The Giants took care of their top offseason priority earlier this month when they agreed to a five-year, $90MM extension with outfielder Hunter Pence and priority No. 2 is now crossed off of the list as well. San Francisco allegedly offered The Freak a two-year pact earlier this month and he turned it down, but it was presumably so that he could secure more money, not a longer deal. If the Giants didn't get a deal done with Lincecum during the exclusive window, they almost certainly would have extended him a one-year, $14MM qualifying offer to guarantee either a return to SF or draft pick compensation.
While Lincecum hasn't regained his Cy Young form, he has bounced back nicely in 2013 after a rough 2012 campaign. The 29-year-old posted a 4.37 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 2013, a marked improvement over his 5.18 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 2012. The advanced metrics are promising too – his FIP (3.73), xFIP (3.56), and SIERA (3.75) are all better than his 2013 ERA as well as his 2012 marks.
Other free agent hurlers could be licking their lips after watching Lincecum take in an average annual value of $17.5MM. This year's free agent class is headlined by the likes of Japanese sensation Masahiro Tanaka, Ervin Santana, Matt Garza, A.J. Burnett, Hiroki Kuroda, and Ubaldo Jimenez.
Had Lincecum hit the open market, he figured to garner a great deal of interest given the lack of quality starting pitching available. Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik & Co. might be a little disappointed by this evening's news as they had scouts monitoring Lincecum's starts towards the final stretch of the season. The four-time All-Star is a native of Seattle.
Zach Links contributed to this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Quick Hits: Jimenez, McCann, Giants, Diamondbacks
There is "no chance" that the Indians will sign Ubaldo Jimenez to a long-term deal, and they may not even extend a qualifying offer, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer writes. Tim Lincecum's two-year, $35MM new deal with the Giants demonstrates that, in this market, Jimenez will be out of the Indians' price range. The Indians have an $8MM option on Jimenez for 2014, but Jimenez received the right to void it when the Rockies traded him. The Indians can still use Jimenez, who posted a 3.2 WAR in 2013, so at least extending a qualifying offer would seem to be an easy decision, but Hoynes suggests that even the qualifying offer might be in question. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.
- The Giants might have interest in Brian McCann as a lefty power source, reports CBS Sports' Jon Heyman. That possibility would, as Heyman notes, be a little strange, since the Giants have one of baseball's best catchers in Buster Posey, and also a very good first baseman in Brandon Belt. A source close to the Giants tells Heyman that "it may depend on how much playing time McCann seeks," which is also somewhat odd, since it's not as if McCann is a borderline starter, or bench fodder. Other clubs surely view McCann as a starter and will be willing to pay him as such.
- The Diamondbacks' payroll will increase in 2014, perhaps to $100MM, AZCentral.com's Nick Piecoro writes. Aaron Hill, Martin Prado and Brandon McCarthy will all have increased salaries in 2014, which means that the DBacks' payroll will likely come in at around $93MM even before considering any free agents they might add.
NL Notes: Marlins, Marrero, Lincecum
Despite a 100-loss season in 2013 and the departure of president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest, Marlins president David Samson says the team will not lose 100 games again in 2014, Christina De Nicola of FOX Sports Florida reports. "I promise you this: We're not going to lose 100 games next year. Not close," says Samson, who also praises Michael Hill, who was promoted to president of baseball operations after Beinfest's departure, and new GM Dan Jennings. "Mike Hill and Dan Jennings are really tremendous heads of baseball organizations, and they're going to work really well together to help us win," Samson says. Here are more notes from around the National League.
- The Nationals just outrighted former first-round pick Chris Marrero, but at least one scout believes he still has potential, writes the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore (on Twitter). "I would not give up on Marrero. He can still hit. Just needs the right opportunity with right team, preferably in AL," the scout says. Marrero hit .270/.331/.402 for Triple-A Syracuse this season.
- The Giants had a number of reasons for giving Tim Lincecum a two-year, $35MM contract this week, assistant GM Bobby Evans tells the New York Post's Joel Sherman. The Giants thought Lincecum would have a number of suitors on the free agent market, perhaps including the Mets and Yankees. Also, with Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain as the only sure things in their 2014 rotation, the Giants did not want to have to piece together three-fifths of a rotation this offseason. Finally, the Giants feel that Lincecum's upside would have been hard to replace elsewhere on the free agent market.
NL West Notes: Dodgers, Giants, Mattingly, Lincecum
Since Dodgers ownership clearly doesn't trust manager Don Mattingly, they should either fire him or trade him to one of the four clubs with managerial vacancies, opines Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. L.A. may or may not find a taker for Mattingly. Even though he has fans in the Nats front office, Rosenthal writes that the general perception is that he's not the best in-game manager.Here's the latest from the NL West..
- Mattingly intends to honor the final year of his contract as manager with the Dodgers, his agent told Ramona Shelburne of ESPNLosAngeles.com. Furthermore, there is renewed hope on both sides that he will continue on beyond 2012, according to sources with knowledge of the situation. Agent Ray Schulte said he expects to meet with team president Stan Kasten in the next "few days."
- Mattingly still hasn't heard from Kasten since the season ended and is waiting to meet with him, tweets Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. Meanwhile, the skipper is still looking for a multi-year deal (link).
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post spoke with Giants assistant GM Bobby Evans about the club's two-year, $35MM extension for Tim Lincecum. Evans broke down his reasons for giving The Freak such a hefty deal and pointed out that if the club retained him with the qualifying offer both this year and next year, the total amount would have been roughly $29MM, not far off from what they gave him.
- Ray Ratto of CSNBayArea.com wonders if Lincecum's lucrative new deal is a baseball or a marketing decision. In all likelihood, it was a little from column A and a little from column B as the Giants legitimately needed to fortify the back-end of their rotation this winter.
Reactions To The Tim Lincecum Deal
The Giants didn't want to risk losing Tim Lincecum in free agency and tonight, they gave the 29-year-old a lucrative two-year, $35MM deal. The deal isn't just a financial windfall for The Freak, it could mean higher paydays for several of this winter's top free agent starters. Here's a look at some of the reactions to the agreement..
- The two-year, $35MM deal could really boost the total price tag for Japanese standout Masahiro Tanaka, tweets Ben Badler of Baseball America. Tanaka is considered by some to be the best available starter on the open market this offseason.
- The deal is also good news for Ubaldo Jimenez, notes MLBTR's Tim Dierkes (via Twitter). Jimenez is another free agent pitcher who reached great heights and had his fair share of struggles but managed to rebound in his walk year. The right-hander posted a 3.30 ERA with 9.6 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 182 2/3 innings for Cleveland this year.
- If you're going by the advanced numbers, it's possible that bad luck contributed a full run to Lincecum's ERA over the last two seasons, writes Rob Neyer of SBNation. If that's the case, then the 29-year-old could be worth the two-year, $35MM price tag. While Neyer is a big believer in sabermetrics, he's less than confident that this deal will work out for GM Brian Sabean.
- Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (Sulia link) isn't exaclty sure how to feel about the deal, but he has a reality check for fans who have panned the deal as an overpayment. San Francisco's rotation would have been in rough shape sans Lincecum and beyond that, teams are flush with cash this winter thanks to increased TV revenues.
- Lincecum's 4.76 ERA and drop in fastball velocity from 92.2 to 90.2 mph makes the deal a head-scratcher in the view of ESPN.com's Buster Olney (via Twitter).
The Latest On Odrisamer Despaigne
It's been a busy week for Cuban defectors, with Jose Dariel Abreu signing a record six-year, $68MM contract with the White Sox last week and Alexander Guerrero agreeing to a deal with the Dodgers for $28MM over four years earlier today.
Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald writes that another Cuban defector, right-hander Odrisamer Despaigne, has worked out for teams in Spain but plans to travel to Mexico to put on a bigger showcase for MLB clubs (Spanish link). According to Ebro, the Phillies, Yankees, Giants, Mariners and Mets have all seen Despaigne throw in Barcelona, but the showcase in Mexico "will have a more official character."
Despaigne's agent, Jaime Torres (also the agent for Jose Contreras, Alexei Ramirez and Yasiel Puig), tells Ebro that he and his client will negotiate a big league contract with a team in Mexico:
"Everything's ready and the paperwork arrived quickly for Odrisamer. Since word got out about his escape, teams from the Majors began to get interested in the young man, and this interest has continued growing. In Mexico he'll try out in front of the scouts, and we'll negotiate the contract there."
Despaigne, who pitched this season at 26 years of age, is a veteran of eight seasons in Cuba's Serie Nacional. He owns a lifetime 51-39 record with a 3.65 ERA but was much better in his final season, posting an ERA of just 2.58. According to a recent report from Diario De Cuba, Despaigne has yet to be cleared by the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).
Thanks to MLBTR's Nick Collias for providing the translation for this post.
Cafardo On Tigers, Sandoval, La Russa, Blue Jays
After the Tigers were knocked out of the playoffs, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe looks at some of the club's flaws. He starts at the top of the lineup, where Austin Jackson's .337 on-base percentage and eight stolen bases were not good enough of a contrast to the slow, power-hitting lineup that produced the best offense in baseball. Possible solutions this winter include Scott Boras clients Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury. “That’s the one team we haven’t heard Ellsbury’s name mentioned with,” said one American League GM. “We’ve heard a lot about the Mets, Mariners, Rangers, but the Tigers make perfect sense. They are a big-market team with big resources. There’s a relationship with Scott and Mr. Ilitch. They’ve done business before and there’s no reason they can’t do business again.” Here's more from today's column..
- The Giants would probably listen to anyone who had interest in Pablo Sandoval, but his weight will be an issue for clubs. However, his conditioning might not totally dissuade teams given the lack of third base options available.
- Tony La Russa is out there, but according to a Cubs source there’s been no contact with him. For his part, La Russa has told friends he’d rather be considered for a front office job than manage again.
- Two people in baseball operations with the Blue Jays indicated to Cafardo that they need two quality starting pitchers to go with Brandon Morrow, Mark Buehrle, and R.A. Dickey. They could take care of one of those spots by extending a qualifying offer to Josh Johnson.
- It doesn't appear that Justin Morneau will return to the Pirates but the Orioles could make a play for him this winter as they go for another bat. If Carlos Beltran is too pricey, Morneau could be an alternative even though the O's may prefer a right-handed bat like Mike Morse.
- The Red Sox went pretty far in their pursuit of Jose Dariel Abreu, but ultimately they lost out to the White Sox. It was a sensitive negotiation for Boston out of respect for pending free agent Mike Napoli, who would have been affected by an Abreu signing.
- There’s some real talk about the possibility that the Rays could see Montreal as a real alternative if plans for a new stadium don’t work out in the Tampa area.
- One of the reasons why Nolan Ryan parted ways with the Rangers was because of the club's decision to let bench coach Jackie Moore go.
- The Yankees appear to be on the verge of shaking up their scouting and player development departments.
Tim Lincecum To Test Open Market
The Giants have talked with two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum about a new contract, but he won't sign before he finds out what he can get on the open market. Lincecum won't do anything until five days after the World Series, when he can solicit offers on the open market, sources tell Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com.
The Giants presented a two-year deal to The Freak, but talks haven’t progressed since then. The Giants plan on making the right-hander the qualifying offer of one-year, ~$14MM if they can't change Lincecum's mind and get something done before the end of the World Series, setting themselves up for draft pick compensation if he bolts. Baggarly speculates that Lincecum, a Seattle native, might be curious to see what level of interest the Mariners will have in him. The M's, whose first-round pick is protected, had a scout following Lincecum and the Giants over the club’s last homestand.
San Francisco took care of one of their top stars earlier this month when they re-signed Hunter Pence to a five-year, $90MM deal. Yesterday, I previewed the offseason ahead for the Giants, including the Lincecum situation.
Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants
After winning the 2012 World Series, the Giants pretty much decided to hold pat and retain the same team. This year, it could be a different story after San Francisco finished fourth in the NL West with a sub-.500 record.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Buster Posey, C: $154MM through 2021
- Hunter Pence, OF: $90MM through 2018
- Matt Cain, SP: $80MM through 2017
- Madison Bumgarner, SP: $31.75MM through 2017
- Angel Pagan, OF: $28MM through 2016
- Marco Scutaro, 2B: $12MM through 2015
- Jeremy Affeldt, RP: $10MM through 2015
- Santiago Casilla, RP: $9.5MM through 2015
- Sergio Romo, RP: $5.5MM through 2014
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)
- Brandon Belt (2.128, Super Two): $2.4MM
- Gregor Blanco (3.164): $2.2MM
- Jose Mijares (5.024): $2.1MM
- Yusmeiro Petit (3.016): $1.3MM
- Joaquin Arias (4.071): $1.2MM
- Tony Abreu (3.170): $700K
Contract Options
- Barry Zito, SP: $18MM club option with a $7MM buyout
- Ryan Vogelsong, SP: $6.5MM club option with a $300K buyout
Free Agents
The Giants have a few important players set to hit the open market, including the perplexing Tim Lincecum. After breaking out in 2008 and asserting himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball across four consecutive years, The Freak struggled mightily in 2012 and rebounded somewhat in 2013. Lincecum's fall from grace is troubling, but this year's numbers are promising. This season, the 29-year-old posted a 4.37 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 versus a 5.18 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 2012. Meanwhile, his FIP (3.73), xFIP (3.56), and SIERA (3.75) are all better than his 2013 ERA as well as his 2012 marks. Giants assistant General Manager Bobby Evans has made no secret of his desire to work out an extension with Lincecum and talks got underway shortly after the season ended. The Giants could net a draft pick by extending him a qualifying offer of about $14.1MM, but it's not likely that they can keep him with that deal.
The rotation figures to have at least one more vacancy. Barry Zito is unlikely to return after finishing out his colossal contract and Ryan Vogelsong's $6.5MM club option is far from a slam dunk. It's possible that Vogelsong, who posted a 5.73 ERA with 5.8 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 2013, could be retained for less if the Giants decline the option and bring him back to the table. Internal candidates Yusmeiro Petit and Eric Surkamp will get to audition for rotation spots during the spring, but they're not guaranteed to take off in 2013. Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are a strong 1-2 combination, but they'll need their 3-5 starters to produce if they hope to get back to the playoffs.
The Giants will have to go out and find a left fielder or a first baseman, depending on where they slot Brandon Belt. Brett Pill is the understudy at first base and while he wouldn't be a terrible choice, San Francisco would probably look out-of-house for an alternative or competitor. Gregor Blanco's solid glove helped him to a 2.8 WAR, but if he's slotted as the every day left fielder, he won't offer much in the way of offensive firepower. If the Giants are going to spend, left field could be the place to do it. Carlos Beltran, Shin-Soo Choo, and Jacoby Ellsbury will all be out on the open market and could play the position. Guys like Nelson Cruz, Curtis Granderson, Marlon Byrd, Corey Hart, and Mike Napoli could also be in play if they don't feel like backing up a Brink's truck.
Regardless of where Belt is slotted, he appears to have a very bright future for himself in San Francisco. He'll go through arbitration for the first time this season and thanks to his Super Two status, he'll have four arb eligible winters in total. The Giants may consider buying out those years and more with an extension and Tim Dierkes recently suggested Allen Craig's deal as a possible comp. Craig got a backloaded five-year deal out of the Cards that guarantees him $31MM with a club option in year six worth $13MM.
The Giants seem to have the backend of their bullpen locked in with closer Sergio Romo and Jeremy Affeldt and Santiago Casilla to set the table. Beyond that, it's a bit of a quagmire. Javier Lopez is a free agent after earning $4.25MM and he could be plucked away by another club looking for a solid lefty specialist. If the 36-year-old is plucked by someone else, they could go after less expensive left-handers like Mike Gonzalez, who posted rates of 10.8 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in 2013 but saw his ERA jump to 4.68 after a rough finish to the year. The Giants obviously would love to keep Lopez after he pitched to a 1.83 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9, but they might not have the spare coin to make that happen. Fellow southpaw Jose Mijares hasn't been nearly as sharp and is a non-tender candidate. Jake Dunning and Heath Hembree figure to have important roles for the Giants next season and Guillermo Moscoso could continue as their long reliever. Notable relievers on the open market that won't break the bank include Chad Qualls and Joba Chamberlain.
Beyond those areas of need, the Giants could use some bench reinforcements. Injuries slowed the Giants' momentum in 2013 and underscored their need for a better reserve unit. Now that 38-year-old second baseman Marco Scutaro had a pin inserted in his bothersome left pinkie, this seems like a good time to find some infield support. Utility man Jeff Baker will be out there on the open market after slashing .279/.360/.545 in a small sample size of 175 plate appearances. The 32-year-old, who offers experience at first base, second base, third base, and the outfield corners, killed lefties in 2013 with an OPS of 1.073. Pairing incumbent utility man Joaquin Arias with someone like Baker would help the Giants stay afloat if the injury bug bites them again next season.
How about something outside of the box? Earlier this year, Evans indicated that the Giants will do their due diligence on top international talents Jose Dariel Abreu and Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka in particular would be useful to the Giants since they have so many rotation spots up in question and there will be marketing opportunities abound in SF for the Japanese sensation. The Giants were one of the most well-represented teams at Abreu's showcase in early October, though they weren't mentioned as one of the frontrunners in Buster Olney's update yesterday. Abreu, meanwhile, would give the Giants some needed pop and could be the club's first baseman if Belt goes to left field. Ultimately, the Giants aren't the favorites to land either player, but watching Yasiel Puig and Yoenis Cespedes thrive in their own backyard has them thinking about spending more on the international market.
After capturing World Series crowns in 2010 and 2012, GM Brian Sabean isn't willing to take a backseat to the Dodgers in the NL West. He'll have his work cut out for him this offseason, however, as the Giants look to get back to the top in 2014.
Arbitration Eligibles: San Francisco Giants
Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Giants are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.
- Brandon Belt (2.128, Super Two): $2.4MM
- Gregor Blanco (3.164): $2.2MM
- Jose Mijares (5.024): $2.1MM
- Yusmeiro Petit (3.016): $1.3MM
- Joaquin Arias (4.071): $1.2MM
- Tony Abreu (3.170): $700K
Belt, 26 in April, established career bests in most categories and finished strong. He'll go to arbitration four times as a Super Two player, but his first-time salary is held down by modest power numbers. It's possible the Giants could consider an Allen Craig type of contract, perhaps with an adjustment to reflect Belt's Super Two status. Blanco had another useful season, contributing mainly with his glove. It's possible he'll be pushed to a fourth outfielder role next year, but he still provides good value. Arias seems safe as the primary backup infielder.
As a journeyman who cleared waivers as recently as August, I'd normally peg Petit as a non-tender candidate. However, he did a nice job for the Giants in 48 innings, narrowly missing a perfect game in September. He's probably earned himself a roster spot for next year, especially with the Giants facing question marks in the rotation after Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner.
The Giants may lose lefty Javier Lopez to free agency, but still may see fit to non-tender Mijares. The 28-year-old southpaw posted a strong 9.9 K/9, but was beat up by allowing 67 hits in 49 innings. He might rebound next year if he's used more strictly, as he was particularly bad against right-handed hitters. Abreu showed good pop in 147 plate appearances, enduring a couple of stints on the DL. Since his projected salary is barely above the league minimum, he has a chance to stick around.
If Belt, Blanco, Petit, Arias, and Abreu are tendered contracts, the Giants are looking at an estimated $7.8MM for five arbitration eligible players.