- Indians first baseman/designated hitter Carlos Santana is another free agent-to-be who’s likely to land on the Red Sox’s radar, per Cafardo, who also names the Mariners as a probable suitor. Considering their positions, the switch-hitting Santana would seem to be a more natural fit than Martinez for Boston, which has gotten subpar production at first from impending free agent Mitch Moreland this year. Meanwhile, Mariners first basemen ranked last in the majors in fWAR (minus-0.7) during the regular season. Their top option, Yonder Alonso, could depart in free agency, which may lead to a Santana pursuit.
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Mariners Rumors
AL West Notes: Dipoto, Angels, Astros
Here’s the latest from around the AL West…
- Jerry Dipoto originally signed a three-year deal with the Mariners, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports, so the general manager is entering his last year under contract. Seattle is 164-160 in two seasons under Dipoto, with a winning year in 2016 followed up by a disappointing, injury-filled year this season. There haven’t been any rumblings about Dipoto’s job security, however, and it would make sense if the M’s explored extensions with Dipoto and manager Scott Servais (whose deal is also up after 2018) this winter in order to avoid lame-duck status for either man. More pressure would seem to be on Servais since managers are more readily replaced than GMs, though Dipoto recently defended his skipper against some reports of clubhouse criticism. The firings of bench coach Tim Bogar and first base coach Casey Candaele does remove some of Servais’ support system — Heyman notes that Candaele and Servais are good friends, while Bogar is close with Dipoto.
- The Angels announced earlier this week that hitting coach Dave Hansen won’t return to the club next season. Hansen had been with L.A. for the last four seasons, first as an assistant hitting coach and then taking over the lead job in 2016-17. The Angels finished near the bottom of most offensive categories last year, as Mike Trout (181), Andrelton Simmons (103) and late-August addition Justin Upton (137) were the only regulars to finish with a wRC+ above the league-average 100 mark. (Yunel Escobar also finished with a 100 wRC+ on the dot.)
- Analytics played a major role in the Astros’ rebuild and subsequent rise to World Series contender, though as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes, the Astros are now faced with the challenge of staying ahead of the curve. “It’s a double-edged sword. If [other teams are] following things we did first, it means, a) it works; and b) our advantage is gone, or dissipating,” Houston GM Jeff Luhnow said. “That’s why we’re constantly trying to figure out how we can gain small advantages in multiple areas. We’re all observing each other. I copy what I see works with other teams and vice-versa. Keeping things a secret allows you to benefit longer but it’s hard to do.”
Jerry Dipoto Discusses Mariners’ Offseason Plans
Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto discussed the next steps for his organization with reporters, including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. Seattle trailed off late in the year and missed the postseason for the 16th-straight season, but it doesn’t sound as if a major roster shakeup is in order.
To the contrary, Dipoto stressed that he’s not anticipating anything approaching the kind of player turnover he oversaw during his first two years in charge of Seattle’s baseball operations. While he acknowledged there are “holes to fill,” he also said that he doesn’t expect “frantic movement” in the offseason to come.
Most broadly, the club’s top baseball ops official noted that his front office’s prior efforts have resulted in a more youthful slate of MLB talent that should provide a solid base moving forward. “I feel like we’ve made a significant move forward,” said Dipoto. “You just don’t really see it in the standings quite as much as we might see it in future planning.”
He also acknowledged that it remains a tall order to put together a team that’s truly competitive with the division-leading Astros. “That’s going to take some time and frankly a little bit of luck,” he said.
It’s unclear what kind of payroll space will be available for what moves the team does make. Seattle finished 2016 with over $170MM on the books and opened the 2017 campaign at over $150MM. Even if the team spends at that level again, there likely wouldn’t be much room to work with, since the Mariners already have $110MM on the books for 2018 before accounting for some significant arbitration salaries.
Looking more particularly at the roster, Dipoto suggested that he doesn’t see the M’s as being particularly in need of adding starting pitching. While he acknowledged that adding a quality starter would be nice, he indicated that the team is no more needy in that area than are most others around the league.
Dipoto sees both “depth” and “quality” in the existing staff. Notably, he also suggested that Seattle is prepared to utilize its staff in a more flexible manner going forward. “We’re going to see a different style of pitching staff and how it’s set up,” said Dipoto. “… We are adjusting toward what the world looks like now for starting pitchers, which is a 15-to-18-out starter (rather) than the complete-game starter.”
Of course, like most teams, the Mariners have interest in young Japanese star Shohei Otani, who is poised to represent a unique bargain given his unique circumstances. He’d represent a potentially game-changing addition to the pitching staff and Dutton says the club is going to do everything it can to land him, perhaps hoping its history with Japanese players will provide an edge. Dipoto did not comment on the two-way performer, but did note that he thinks it’s possible a player could see significant action as both a pitcher and hitter — though he added it’s unlikely that both could be done on a full-time basis.
Elsewhere, the club needs to add an outfielder and consider its options at first base. Dipoto said that the Mariners won’t necessarily need to add a center-field-capable player to cover for the loss of Jarrod Dyson to free agency, citing the potential to utilize Mitch Haniger and Guillermo Heredia up the middle. (Notably, though, manager Scott Servais did mention the need to improve on the bases, as Dutton reports. Dyson was easily the team’s best performer in that department.) That stance ought to help with flexibility as the Mariners sort through the options on the open market (and, perhaps, the trade market).
At first base, the GM suggested there’s a real possibility of bringing back Yonder Alonso, though he also emphasized that there will likely be “a lot of different options” to be considered. Certainly, the free-agent market has a variety of possibilities, perhaps representing opportunity to target a given player or to achieve some value through patience. Though he indicated that the team still believes in Dan Vogelbach and Evan White, Dipoto noted that it “remains to be seen” whether either will be a major part of the solution for the season to come.
Mariners Fire Bogar, Candaele; Acta Named Bench Coach
- Mariners bench coach Tim Bogar and first base coach Casey Candaele will not return in 2018, the team announced in a press release. In addition, bullpen coach Nasusel Cabrera will shift to another job within the organization that has yet to be determined. Third base coach Manny Acta will serve as the team’s new bench coach, while assistant coach Scott Brosius will replace Acta as third base coach. Special projects coach Chris Prieto, who was also responsible for replay in 2017, will replace Candaele as the first base coach for the Mariners. Edgar Martinez and Mel Stottlemyre will return as the team’s hitting and pitching coaches, respectively.
Erasmo Ramirez In Mariners' Plans For 2018 Rotation
- The Mariners “didn’t know quite what we were getting” when Erasmo Ramirez was re-acquired by the Rays, Seattle manager Scott Servais tells Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune, but the right-hander has now established himself as a potential rotation candidate for the 2018 squad. After working for several years as a swingman, Ramirez became a full-time starter after his trade to the Mariners and the results were impressive — 3.92 ERA, 7.8 K/9 and 3.60 K/BB over 62 innings (11 starts). Ramirez’s emergence is a boost to a Seattle team that is looking for healthy and reliable starting pitching this winter.
Hisashi Iwakuma Sidelined For Five Months After Arthroscopic Shoulder Surgery
Hisashi Iwakuma underwent arthroscopic right shoulder debridement surgery two days ago, as per an announcement from the Mariners. The right-hander is expected to resume throwing in five months, putting him on pace to miss the first few weeks of Spring Training and likely to miss some time at the start of the season as he rebuilds his strength.
Iwakuma made just six starts for the M’s in 2017 before being sent to the disabled list with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. What was expected to be an absence of four-to-six weeks ended up lasting the entire season, as Iwakuma suffered a setback that couldn’t be overcome despite cortisone and PRP injections.
It was already expected that Seattle wouldn’t exercise their $10MM club option on Iwakuma’s services for 2018, and the veteran righty will instead receive a $1MM buyout. It isn’t out of the question that the Mariners re-sign Iwakuma to a smaller or even a minor league contract for next season in the aftermath of his surgery — they’re obviously more familiar with his health situation than other teams, who would naturally be wary of adding a pitcher who turns 37 in April and will probably need significant time to ramp up for action in 2018.
Never a hard-thrower or a big strikeout pitcher, Iwakuma has relied on a recipe of grounders, soft contact and a lack of walks over his six MLB seasons, all with the Mariners. He was seemingly on the verge of signing a three-year, $45MM deal to join the Dodgers in the 2015-16 offseason before L.A. pulled out of that agreement due to a still-unknown concern with Iwakuma’s medicals. Iwakuma returned to Seattle on a one-year contract that contained a pair of vesting option years, the first of which Iwakuma caused to vest for 2017 by easily surpassing the 162-inning threshold (he tossed 199 frames in 2016) and finishing the year injury-free.
Starting pitching is a clear need for the Mariners this offseason in the wake of all their rotation injuries this year. James Paxton, Felix Hernandez and Mike Leake have three spots spoken for and the M’s have several young arms who could battle for at least one of the other rotation jobs, though adding a reliable veteran would greatly help stabilize the Mariners’ staff.
Mariners Rumors: Cain, Duda, Moreland
- While the Royals will attempt to keep Hosmer, it seems they’re resigned to losing center fielder Lorenzo Cain in free agency. The Royals aren’t optimistic they’ll be able to re-sign Cain, 32, as they’re bracing for him to land a lucrative contract of at least four years. The Mariners may be a fit for him, insiders have suggested to Heyman, who adds that Seattle will also take a look at first basemen Lucas Duda and Mitch Moreland if they hit the open market in the offseason.
[SOURCE LINK]
Guillermo Heredia To Undergo Shoulder Surgery
Mariners outfielder Guillermo Heredia is headed for a second opinion on his ailing right shoulder but has already had surgery recommended by one doctor, manager Scott Servais revealed to reporters on Wednesday (via the Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish).
Servais stated that the surgery “needs to happen” and added that Heredia will require “kind of a lengthy rehab,” though he declined to put an exact time frame on the outfielder’s recovery. The team does expect Heredia to be ready for Spring Training, per Divish. Heredia has been diagnosed with a subluxation in his non-throwing shoulder, and the injury was exacerbated on a diving attempt at a fly-ball against the Astros a couple of weeks back.
The injury will officially close the book on Heredia’s first full season in the Majors. While his overall .249/.315/.337 slash line isn’t much to look at, it’s fair to wonder how heavily the shoulder troubles impacted Heredia down the stretch. He carried a much more respectable .272/.338/.377 batting line into the season’s final month before cratering with a .143/.211/.157 performance over his final 70 trips to the plate. That slump includes a woeful 0-for-16 stretch to close out the year.
The 26-year-old Heredia left Cuba back in January 2015 and went through a near-six-month waiting process before being declared a free agent by Major League Baseball that July. He ultimately took another seven months before signing with Seattle. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2019 season, so the Mariners can control him cheaply for the foreseeable future.
While his bat has yet to provide much in the way of value, Heredia has received strong grades for his work in the corner outfield, per Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, and he’s also played a roughly average center field in nearly 500 innings. Statcast’s new Outs Above Average metric pegs him at a solid +7 outs for the 2017 season.
Three Needs: Seattle Mariners
This is the latest edition in MLBTR’s Three Needs series. Click to read entries on the Phillies, Braves, Tigers, Reds, Pirates, Giants, Mets, Blue Jays, Athletics and White Sox.
The Mariners entered the 2017 campaign with the realistic goal of ending their major league-worst 15-year playoff drought, but they’re on the verge of adding another season to that ignominious streak. Thanks in part to a rash of injuries to key contributors in James Paxton, Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, Jarrod Dyson, Felix Hernandez, Drew Smyly and Hisashi Iwakuma, the Mariners have stumbled to a 75-80 mark with a week left in the season. While 2017 hasn’t gone according to plan, the club’s outlook heading into the offseason isn’t all that bleak. With a productive winter from general manager Jerry Dipoto, who’s never shy about making moves, and better health in 2018, Seattle should find itself in the thick of the American League playoff race a year from now.
1.) Bolster the rotation:
How bad and injury laden has the Mariners’ rotation been this year? Right-hander Mike Leake, whom they acquired from the Cardinals not even four weeks ago and has only thrown 25 1/3 innings since the trade, is already second among M’s starters in fWAR (1.2). Leake is one of 17 hurlers to log at least one start this year for the Mariners, whose rotation sits 20th in ERA and tied for 22nd in fWAR. A reliable innings eater, Leake should be a quality full-season piece for the Mariners in 2018, but the team doesn’t seem to have any rotation locks for next year aside from him, Paxton and Hernandez.
Given the structural damage in his shoulder, the Mariners are highly likely to cut ties with the once-terrific Iwakuma, who has a $10MM club option or a $1MM buyout for next season. They’ll also move on from Yovani Gallardo’s $13MM option in favor of a $2MM buyout and non-tender Smyly, a touted trade acquisition last offseason who didn’t pitch at all this year and will miss 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June.
The Mariners have several other in-house rotation candidates – including Erasmo Ramirez, Andrew Moore, Andrew Albers, Ariel Miranda and Marco Gonzales – but they’d be hard pressed to guarantee starting spots to any of them. Ramirez and Gonzales figure to at least be part of the Mariners’ bullpen next season, though, as both will be out of minor league options. Even if one of them opens 2018 as a starter, the club would be wise to add another established starter to its staff.
Seattle probably doesn’t have a deep enough farm system to make a run at a high-end, controllable arm (Michael Fulmer, for example), but it still wouldn’t be surprising to see the trade-happy Dipoto swing a deal for a starter. Alternatively, the Mariners could delve into free agency, where there will be no shortage of second-tier starters who shouldn’t have much trouble bettering the subpar production they’ve received from the replacement-level duo of Miranda and Gallardo. Of course, one would be remiss not to mention Japanese star Shohei Otani as a potential option for the Mariners. While international spending limitations in the new collective bargaining agreement will tamp down Otani’s earning power, he’s still expected to immigrate to the majors in the offseason.
It’s anyone’s guess where the right-handed ace/left-handed slugger might sign, but it could help the Mariners’ cause that they’ve had plenty of luck reeling in Japanese-born players in the past (Ichiro Suzuki, Kazuhiro Sasaki and Iwakuma, to name a few). They figure to join the rest of the league in trying for the 23-year-old Otani, who could immediately join Paxton as a second ace-caliber starter in Seattle. The chance to garner at-bats might heavily factor into where Otani goes, but the Mariners probably won’t be able to guarantee him anything more than occasional pinch-hitting duties next season with Nelson Cruz holding down the DH spot. Cruz isn’t under contract past 2018, though, so the club could perhaps offer Otani long-term ABs at DH if it does submit a proposal to him.
2.) Upgrade at first base:
The Mariners planned to platoon the left-handed Dan Vogelbach and the righty-swinging Danny Valencia this year, but they optioned the former to the minors before the season and have barely used him in the bigs. Valencia, meanwhile, has failed to transfer the success he had in Oakland over the previous two years to Seattle. The Mariners seemed to find a solid platoon partner for Valencia in August when they traded for another ex-Athletic, lefty Yonder Alonso, though he has come back to earth after looking like a breakout star early in 2017. Alonso has batted an uninspiring .243/.336/.365 as a Mariner and reverted to the groundball-hitting ways that have sapped him of power and production throughout his career. He and Valencia are scheduled to become free agents at season’s end, and neither look like strong bets to return to Seattle in 2018.
At this point, there’s little reason to expect the Mariners to go into another season counting on Vogelbach, so it seems probable they’ll enter the market searching for an established first baseman. Eric Hosmer and Carlos Santana will receive the lion’s share of attention around the majors over the winter, but Lucas Duda, ex-Mariner Logan Morrison and Mitch Moreland will offer more affordable choices in free agency. Should Dipoto look for a trade, the Braves’ Matt Adams and the Yankees’ Chase Headley could end up on his radar.
While most of those names aren’t particularly exciting, it shouldn’t be tough for the Mariners to find someone capable of outdoing the production they’ve gotten from first this year. The club’s first baggers have posted easily the worst fWAR in the majors (minus-1.4) and have hit a terrible .241/.308/.378.
3.) Decide on multiple outfield spots:
Aside from Haniger, who has more than held his own this year, the Mariners will head into the offseason lacking set starters in the outfield. Dyson has continued his effective speed-and-defense ways this season, his first in Seattle, but he’s set to hit free agency, while rookie Ben Gamel has tailed off badly in the second half after a highly productive, BABIP-fueled few months.
It’s possible the Mariners could stay the course next season, which would mean re-signing the 33-year-old Dyson and continuing to give Gamel and Guillermo Heredia significant playing time. It would be hard to argue against bringing back Dyson, one of the premier defensive center fielders and baserunners in the game who – unlike, say, Lorenzo Cain – shouldn’t exactly break the bank on his next contract.
As for the corner, while the M’s haven’t gotten great production from Gamel and Heredia this year, free agency won’t brim with overly appealing options (aside from J.D. Martinez and, if he opts out of his contract, Justin Upton). Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Gonzalez and Melky Cabrera are among several soon-to-be free agent outfielders who have had good careers but come with obvious flaws (including age and defensive shortcomings). A trade can’t be ruled out, then, but anyone the Mariners might acquire that way would likely have his fair share of warts. As such, whether to stick with the status quo in the outfield in 2018 or go outside the organization will be among Dipoto’s most intriguing offseason calls.
James Paxton Will Work To Avoid Injuries In 2018
- Separate stints on the disabled list have kept Mariners ace James Paxton out for approximately two months this year and limited him to 124 2/3 innings. In an effort to ward off injuries in 2018, Paxton will undergo body and blood testing in the offseason to find diet and workout regimens that suit him, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweets. Paxton has pitched to a 3.03 ERA and registered 10.25 K/9 against 2.67 BB/9 this year, which are the type of numbers that could make him a Cy Young contender over a full season of work.
