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2023 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2023 Rule 5 draft will begin at 1pm Central time today at the Winter Meetings in Nashville.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and have played five professional seasons, and any players who signed at 19 years of age or older at signing that now have four professional seasons, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

The clubs will draft in reverse order of the 2023 standings, with no club obligated to make a selection when it’s their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2024 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors. Last year’s edition saw some key players change clubs, such as Ryan Noda going from the Dodgers to the Athletics and Blake Sabol going from the Pirates to the Giants.

This post will be updated as the draft continues. Here is the order…

1.  Athletics: RHP Mitch Spence (Yankees)
2. Royals: RHP Matt Sauer (Yankees)
3. Rockies: RHP Anthony Molina (Rays)
4. White Sox: LHP Shane Drohan (Red Sox)
5. Nationals: SS Nasim Nuñez (Marlins)
6. Cardinals: RHP Ryan Fernandez (Red Sox)
7. Angels: pass
8. Mets: RHP Justin Slaten (Rangers); Mets later traded Slaten to the Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons* and cash considerations.
9. Pirates: pass
10. Guardians: 3B Deyvison De Los Santos (Diamondbacks)
11. Tigers: pass
12. Red Sox: pass
13. Giants: pass
14. Reds: pass
15. Padres: RHP Stephen Kolek (Mariners)
16. Yankees: pass
17. Cubs: pass
18. Marlins: pass
19. Diamondbacks: pass
20. Twins: pass
21. Mariners: pass
22. Blue Jays: pass
23. Rangers: RHP Carson Coleman (Yankees)
24. Phillies: pass
25. Astros: pass
26. Brewers: pass
27. Rays: pass
28. Dodgers: pass
29. Orioles: pass
30. Braves: pass

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. A few former major leaguers changed uniforms. They include 1B Seth Beer going from the Diamondbacks to the Pirates while the Yankees took RHP Kervin Castro from the Astros.

* (Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Ammons was going to the Mets. Joel Sherman of The New York Post added that Ammons and cash were being exchanged for Slaten.

Mariners Looking To Add Multiple Position Players

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After letting Teoscar Hernández enter free agency without so much as a qualifying offer and subsequently trading both Eugenio Suárez and Jarred Kelenic, the Mariners have lost three hitters who provided above-average offensive production in regular playing time last season. Suárez and Hernández finished second and third on the team in RBI (trailing only superstar Julio Rodríguez), while Kelenic led the team in slugging percentage and isolated power until he fractured his foot in mid-July.

The team’s best options at third base and the corner outfield positions now include Luis Urías, Cade Marlowe, Dominic Canzone, and Taylor Trammell, three unproven 26-year-old outfielders and a former top prospect who struggled tremendously in 2023. Those four combined to hit just .204 last season with a .666 OPS and 87 wRC+ in 515 PA. Veteran utility players Sam Haggerty and Dylan Moore can also cover the outfield and infield corners, but neither is much more than the short side of a platoon given their career numbers against right-handed pitching.

With all that said, it’s no surprise Seattle is looking to add multiple position players this offseason, according to manager Scott Servais (per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). After all, the Mariners are ostensibly competing with the Astros and Rangers for the AL West crown, but if they’re going to win in 2024, they’ll need an offense to support their deep and talented pitching staff.

The Mariners are not thought to be in the running for Shohei Ohtani, but they could be a good fit for almost every other impact bat on the free agent market. They have also been linked to various trade candidates, including, most recently, Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes of the Rays.

It remains unclear how much money president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has to work with this winter, although he has managed to clear a significant amount of salary and he expects the payroll to increase in 2024 (per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times). It’s also hard to guess what trade chips the Mariners will be willing to part with. Entering the offseason, it seemed almost inevitable that they would trade one of their young starting pitchers to improve the offense. However, after sending Marco Gonzales to Atlanta as part of the Kelenic trade, Seattle has less of a logjam in the rotation, and Dipoto says the chances of the team trading another pitcher are “less likely” than they were before (per Jude).

That said, if the Mariners are serious about trading for Arozarena, Paredes, or another middle-of-the-order bat, they’ll need to make a pretty sweet offer, and luckily they still have an abundance of arms to deal from. Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller would make a strong starting five to open the season, but eventually Robbie Ray will return from Tommy John rehab and Emerson Hancock will force his way back to the majors. Too much pitching depth is never a bad thing, yet the Mariners might be wise to trade from an area of strength to bolster their depleted lineup.

Braves Likely To Trade Marco Gonzales

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Last night’s Braves/Mariners trade saw Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White go from Seattle to Atlanta, but it seems Gonzales’ stay with the Braves will be brief. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Braves aren’t planning to keep Gonzales and expect to move him in another trade. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times adds that Gonzales himself expected as much to happen after being informed he’d been traded to Atlanta. It’s not yet clear if there’s an imminent trade involving Gonzales or if he’s being shopped around at present, but it’s a notable revelation with regard to the Braves’ rotation outlook all the same.

Gonzales, 32 in February, is due to earn $12MM this season in the final season of a four-year, $30MM extension he signed back in 2020. The contract also contains a $15MM club option for the 2025 season, which does not come with a buyout.

The soft-tossing Gonzales was a quality member of the Seattle rotation from 2018-22, pitching 765 2/3 innings of 3.94 ERA ball along the way. He became quite homer-prone in 2021, however, and saw an already below-average strikeout rate dip to concerning levels in 2022. Gonzales still posted a solid earned run average over those two seasons, but the home run and strikeout trends were noted red flags.

While the lefty managed to cut back on the homers he allowed in 2023, Gonzales was still tagged for a grim 5.22 ERA in 50 innings. His 15.8% strikeout rate was one of the lowest in the game and the second-worst of his Mariners tenure. His 8.4% walk rate was the worst of his career. Three of his ten starts last year were actually quite serviceable, but Gonzales was clobbered for eight runs on two occasions and also served up four runs through five innings in his first outing of the year. Ultimately, a left forearm strain ended his season in late May.

For the Braves, it’s sensible to see them look to move Gonzales elsewhere. He’d at best have been a fifth starter candidate in a team that boasts Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder in the top four spots on the staff. His $12MM salary also pushed the Braves into the second tier of luxury penalization.

The Associated Press reports that Seattle is set to send $4.5MM to Atlanta to cover part of that $12MM sum — $12.25MM, if counting the $250K assignment bonus Gonzales received as part of being traded. As such, the Braves would only owe Gonzales about $7.75MM in actual salary, but he’s still cost them a bit more than $10MM once factoring in the penalties the team would’ve incurred under the competitive balance tax.

That’s probably more than the Braves care to spend on a back-of-the-rotation candidate who’s not clearly a superior option to in-house candidates like AJ Smith-Shawver and Dylan Dodd, and it might even be more than Gonzales could expect to command on the open market after an injury-marred season. Presumably, if and when Gonzales changes hands a second time, those cost-savings will be redirected to his new team.

While Gonzales perhaps isn’t a fit for a win-now Braves club with at least four healthier and better options in the rotation ahead of him, that doesn’t mean he can’t help another club. There are several teams throughout the league — Royals, A’s, Rockies, White Sox, Padres, Nationals to name a few — who are simply looking for innings to round out the starting staff. Gonzales’ 50 frames last year don’t paint the picture of an innings eater, but he’d averaged 30 starts and 174 frames over his past four 162-game seasons prior to 2023 (plus 11 starts and 69 2/3 innings in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign). If Gonzales’ medicals show that the forearm strain which ended his season is in the rearview mirror, another club might feel it can comfortably rely on him for 150ish innings this coming season. And if the Mariners are footing roughly a third of the bill regardless of where Gonzales lands, he could be viewed as a relatively affordable source of those innings at a time when veteran free agents in their late 30s (i.e. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson) are commanding $12-13MM for similar roles.

Braves Acquire Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales, Evan White From Mariners

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The Braves have acquired outfielder Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times, left-hander Marco Gonzales and first baseman Evan White are also headed to Atlanta in the deal. In return, the Mariners will receive right-handers Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips. The Braves have since announced the deal, which includes cash considerations headed from Seattle to Atlanta.

Kelenic, the sixth-overall pick in the 2018 draft and a former consensus top-5 prospect in the sport, struggled to a .168/.251/.338 slash line in 558 trips to the plate across his first two seasons in the majors. Despite the brutal start to Kelenic’s big league career, he managed to put together a solid campaign in 2023 as Seattle’s regular left fielder. In 416 trips to the plate across 105 games, the youngster slashed a solid .253/.327/.419. Now Kelenic, who is not yet eligible for arbitration, heads to Atlanta with five seasons of team control remaining coming off a career-best season in the majors where he posted a wRC+ of 108.

Even that performance came with some red flags, however. While Kelenic walked at an above average 9.9% clip, his 31.7% strikeout rate ranked in just the seventh percentile among qualified hitters and his overall slash line surely benefited from a .359 BABIP. He also struggled considerably after a hot April, slashing just .235/.314/.356 the rest of the way. That said, it’s worth noting that Kelenic, who will play the 2024 season at just age-24, posted a .321 wOBA in 2023 that was actually 12 points lower than his expected number of .333. Additionally, his .359 BABIP in 2023 may not be as outlandish as his career .268 mark in the majors may suggest, as he’s never posted a BABIP lower than .323 at the Triple-A level in a season during his career. In addition, it’s possible his late-season numbers are skewed by the fact that the 24-year-old missed more than two months after he suffered a fractured foot from kicking a water cooler back in July.

Looking ahead to 2024, The Athletic’s David O’Brien relays that the Braves plan to have Kelenic and Vaughn Grissom compete for the everyday role in left field during the spring, with a platoon situation between the two possible as Grissom looks to split time between the left field and the infield dirt. That said, it certainly seems possible that Kelenic could earn an everyday role in Atlanta if he shows his step forward in 2023 wasn’t a fluke. Even if Kelenic simply repeats his 2023 campaign he would represent a notable upgrade over Eddie Rosario, who drew 122 starts in left field for the Braves last year while slashing just .255/.305/.450 (100 wRC+) in 516 trips to the plate.

To acquire Kelenic, the Braves take on the salaries of both Gonzales and White. Gonzales is owed $12.25MM in 2024, while White is owed $7MM in 2024, $8MM in 2025, and a $2MM buyout on a $10MM club option for 2026. While it’s not currently known how much cash Atlanta received in the deal, it’s fair to assume the Braves are taking on the majority of that nearly $30MM in guaranteed money, including $19.25MM in dollars owed this next season. Before accounting for the cash received from Seattle, the deal pushes Atlanta’s 2024 payroll to just over $224MM and just under $261MM for luxury tax purposes, per RosterResource. If that projection holds going forward, it would put the Braves just over the second luxury tax threshold, which sits at $257MM for the 2024 campaign.

Gonzales, 32 in February, struggled to a 5.22 ERA in 50 innings across ten starts this season before undergoing season-ending surgery to repair a nerve issue in his forearm. Gonzales is expected to be ready for Spring Training in 2024 and, if healthy, could provide the Braves with a serviceable back-end rotation option who could give competition to Reynaldo Lopez and Bryce Elder in Spring Training. Prior to his injury-marred 2023 season, Gonzales had been a reliable source of innings for the Mariners in recent years, averaging 174 innings of work across four 162-game seasons between 2018 and 2022. Gonzales’s contract includes a $15MM club option for the 2025 season that does not include a buyout, though Gonzales would likely have to take a significant step forward in 2024 for the Braves to consider exercising that option.

White, 27, does not figure to be a contributor to the Braves over the life of his contract. The former top prospect owns a career .165/.235/.308 slash line in the majors and has not appeared in the big leagues since May 2021. Over the past two seasons, White has appeared in just 30 professional games with a slash line of just .200/.310/.397 at the Triple-A level during that time. White spent almost the entire 2023 campaign on the 60-day IL, first due to a left adductor strain and then thanks to hip surgery, though he too is expected to be ready for Spring Training.

In addition to taking on the salaries of White and Gonzales, the Braves parted with a pair of interesting young arms in Kowar and Phillips. Kowar’s stay in the Braves organization was a short one, as the righty had just been acquired from the Royals last month as the return in the Kyle Wright trade. As a former top-100 prospect and Kansas City’s first-round pick in the 2018 draft, Kowar is an intriguing piece despite his struggles in the majors to this point in his career. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted at the time of his trade to Atlanta, Kowar averaged 97 mph on his fastball in 2023 after converting to full-time relief duties and thanks to his eligibility for a fourth option year in 2024 figures to provide the Mariners with a fireballing, optionable relief arm headed into next season. Phillips, meanwhile, was Atlanta’s second-round pick in the 2022 draft. The 20-year-old has not yet made his professional debut after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but ranked as the Braves’ #7 prospect per MLB Pipeline prior to the swap.

As for the Mariners, the club is clearly in the midst of retooling their lineup. The club has traded both Kelenic and third baseman Eugenio Suarez and non-tendered DH Mike Ford since the offseason began while watching Teoscar Hernandez depart via free agency, leaving four major holes in the club’s lineup. That being said, the departures of those four players figure to help Seattle in their quest to improve their lineup’s contact skills next season; each of the aforementioned hitters struck out more than 30% of the time in 2024. Parting ways with four of the league’s most punchout prone bats is an excellent start toward that goal, even as the club faces an uphill battle in replacing the quartet’s production.

While replacing four members of the club’s starting lineup is no easy task, Seattle at least figures to have plenty of payroll space with which to accomplish that goal. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $115MM in 2024 pending the addition of cash considerations sent to Atlanta, while Adam Judge of The Seattle Times notes that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto indicated today that the club’s payroll will “very likely” rise in 2024 relative to its 2023 total. The Mariners posted a payroll of $140MM in 2023, meaning the club should have more than $25MM worth of room to make additions to their lineup, though it’s unclear how much Seattle is willing to surpass that $140MM figure.

Even with that amount of money available for additions, it’s worth noting that the club would need to significantly increase payroll over its 2023 levels to be able to make even one impact addition on the level of, for example, Cody Bellinger or Juan Soto. Given the number of holes the Mariners will need to fill in their lineup, it seems more likely that the club will be limited to adding mid-level salaries to its payroll. The free agent market is unlikely to offer many solutions, with the best mid-level bats such as Hernandez and Matt Chapman being among the more strikeout-prone players available this winter.

That said, the club has reportedly discussed deals for both outfielder Randy Arozarena and third baseman Isaac Paredes with the Rays recently. Adding even one of those players would surely require significant capital in terms of prospects and young players, though it’s worth noting that the Rays appear to be on the hunt for controllable starting pitching, which the Mariners have an excess of. Speculatively speaking, swinging a deal for Paredes and/or Arozarena would allow Seattle to shore up its lineup without breaking the bank, allowing the club to pursue contact-oriented bats like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Whit Merrifield in free agency.

Mariners, Rays "Believed" To Have Discussed Randy Arozarena Trade

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  • On the heels of a report earlier today that the Mariners are among the teams interested in Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes this offseason, Jon Morosi of MLB Network indicates that outfielder Randy Arozarena is also believed to have come up in discussions between the two clubs. There’s no indication that a deal between the sides is particularly close, as is the case with Paredes. That said, it’s noteworthy that the sides have discussed a deal around Arozarena, who Morosi described as “available” in trade. Earlier this week, reporting indicated that while teams have inquired after Arozarena, the Rays weren’t shopping the outfielder. Arozarena, 28, would be a particularly good fit for a Mariners club that lacks a surefire starting outfielder to pair with Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic. The 28-year-old slashed a strong .254/.364/.425 with 23 home runs and 22 stolen bases for the Rays this year en route to his first career All Star appearance.

Mariners, Blue Jays Interested In Isaac Paredes

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Rays infielder Isaac Paredes has drawn trade interest from several teams, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi writes (X link), with the Mariners and Blue Jays among the suitors.  There isn’t any indication that a deal is anywhere close, and it would have to count as something of a surprise if Tampa did move Paredes, considering both his ability and the fact that he is only now entering his arbitration years.  He is projected to earn $3.2MM in the first of four arb-eligible years as a Super Two player.

As such, dealing Paredes wouldn’t bring many savings to the Rays’ 2024 payroll, estimated (via Roster Resource) to sit at a franchise-high $126MM.  President of baseball operations Erik Neander is on record as saying the Rays are open to having such a relatively large payroll, yet that hasn’t stopped speculation that Tampa Bay might look to move such higher-salaried names as Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot, Brandon Lowe, Harold Ramirez, or even Randy Arozarena.  Trading players as they become more expensive has been a longstanding way of business in Tampa, and there aren’t really many true untouchables on a roster that the Rays are forever looking to upgrade.

In this sense, selling high on Paredes now would net the Rays to a big trade return, and allow them to sidestep Paredes’ increasing arbitration price tag entirely.  It seems possible that the Rays might also consider attaching a less-desirable contract like Margot or Lowe along with Paredes in a trade package — while this would lessen the return in terms of prospects or big-league ready players, it would get some money off Tampa Bay’s books and perhaps allow them to keep Glasnow as the backbone of a somewhat thin rotation.

The Rays’ attention to the budget is what brought Paredes to Florida in the first place, as Tampa acquired the infielder and a Competitive Balance Round B draft pick from the Tigers for Austin Meadows in April 2022.  Meadows was owed $4MM that season in the first of three arbitration years, yet the Rays chose to deal him in what ended up being a wise move.  Meadows has played in only 42 games since the trade due to vertigo and anxiety issues, and the Tigers non-tendered him last month.

Paredes, meanwhile, has blossomed in Tampa Bay, hitting .232/.333/.467 with 51 homers over 952 plate appearances since Opening Day 2022.  This production has outpaced his projected numbers, as Paredes hasn’t made much hard contact, and ranked only in the sixth percentile of all batters in hard-hit percentage in 2023.  On the plus side, it can be argued that Paredes has been hampered by a very low .232 BABIP over the last two seasons, and his strikeout and walk rates have been solidly above average.  In the field, Paredes has spent most of his time at third base posting respectable defensive numbers, and he brings added versatility as a player capable of getting some action as a second baseman, first baseman, and emergency shortstop.

This skillset is particularly useful for teams like Seattle and Toronto, infield-needy teams who could use more pop in the lineup.  The Mariners recently acquired Luis Urias to contribute to their infield picture, yet Paredes would be an improvement over Urias as a regular third baseman, so Urias and Josh Rojas could then work into a second base platoon.  The Blue Jays also have a big hole at the hot corner with Matt Chapman now a free agent, and Paredes could potentially also contribute to the Jays’ unsettled second base position.

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has swung quite a few trades with the Rays during his tenure in Seattle, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see the two sides line up once more.  That might seem a more realistic scenario than a notable swap between the Rays and Jays, as the AL East rivals unsurprisingly haven’t combined for many trades in their history.  Tampa Bay would probably prefer to not have to deal with Paredes as an opponent in the coming seasons, while the Blue Jays might not relish facing any of their own young talents that they might have to deal away to facilitate such a swap.

Speculatively, Tampa could target a controllable young pitcher like Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo as part of a Paredes trade.  With the Mariners targeting contact hitting, Paredes would be a better fit at third base for the club than the free-swinging Eugenio Suarez, who was already dealt away to the Diamondbacks.  Any major salary relief probably might not factor into such a Rays/Mariners deal since it isn’t clear how much the M’s are able or willing to spend this winter, considering that the Suarez trade was made in part to reduce salary.  On this front at least, the higher-spending Blue Jays might be in a better position to take some money off Tampa’s books.

Marlins Claim Kaleb Ort From Mariners

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The Marlins have claimed right-hander Kaleb Ort from the Mariners, per Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase. There was no previous reporting to indicate Ort was available, but the Mariners evidently tried to pass him through waivers. The Marlins now have a 40-man roster count of 39 and the Mariners 38.

Ort, 32 in February, has been with the Red Sox for the past three seasons. He appeared in 47 games at the big league level, tossing 51 2/3 innings with a 6.27 earned run average. This is the second time he has been claimed off waivers since Boston’s season ended, with M’s claiming him in October and now the Marlins today.

The interest likely stems from Ort’s big strikeout numbers in the minor leagues. He has punched out 182 of the 571 batters he’s faced in Triple-A, a rate of 31.9%. He’s also given out walks at a 12.3% clip but it’s understandable that clubs would hope for a breakout with a bit more finesse.

Ort still has an option year remaining, allowing the Marlins to utilize him as a depth piece for the year if he doesn’t earn his way into a major league role. He’s also still cheap, heaving yet to qualify for arbitration. For the Mariners, they have cleared up a couple of roster spots with this claim and also that of Cooper Hummel, who was claimed by the Mets. That gives the M’s some spots for new additions, perhaps in next week’s Rule 5 draft.

Mets Claim Cooper Hummel

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The Mets have claimed catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel off waivers from the Mariners, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Seattle had not previously announced that Hummel was being removed from the 40-man roster. The Mets now have 32 players on their 40-man roster, while the Mariners are down to 39.

The waiver claim comes just over a year after the Mariners acquired Hummel from the D-backs in a straight-up swap for former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis. That deal didn’t pay dividends for either party, as Lewis missed significant time with injuries before being non-tendered, while Hummel spent the bulk of his lone season with the Mariners organization in Triple-A.

Hummel appeared in just 10 big league games and tallied 26 plate appearances as a Mariner. Between that and a brief MLB debut with Arizona in 2022, he’s a .166/.264/.286 hitter in 227 trips to the plate. That said, Hummel enjoyed a strong year with Triple-A Tacoma in 2023, batting .262/.409/.435 with a mammoth 18% walk rate against a 23.3% strikeout rate. He also offers unusual defensive versatility, evidenced by more than 1800 career innings in left field, 1054 innings behind the plate, 508 innings at first base and 296 innings in right field. Hummel has a minor league option remaining as well, so he can be stashed in Syracuse without needing to first pass through waivers.

The 29-year-old Hummel was an 18th-round draft pick of the Brewers back in 2016, when current Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns was running baseball operations in Milwaukee. Stearns traded Hummel to the D-backs in a 2021 swap that netted infielder Eduardo Escobar, and he’s now reacquired the versatile catcher/outfielder as one of his first transactions with his new club.

It’s another in a growing series of small-scale depth pickups. Stearns has added Hummel, and infielder Zack Short via waivers while signing free agents Luis Severino, Joey Wendle and Austin Adams to one-year Major League contracts (a nonguaranteed split deal, in the case of Adams). He’s also inked righties Cole Sulser and Kyle Crick to minor league deals this week.

Many Mets fans had visions of larger dealings when owner Steve Cohen finally landed Stearns after years of coveting the former Milwaukee baseball operations leader and have instead voiced frustration at depth moves such as this one. However, the offseason is a marathon and the majority of the major names on the free agent and trade markets alike remain available. Beyond that, the Mets had a whopping 12 vacancies on the 40-man roster not long ago and have been burned by a lack of depth on the pitching front in recent years. The headline-grabbing moves for Mets fans figure to surface as the offseason wears on, but Stearns’ Brewers were also known for aggressively operating around the margins of the 40-man roster and that tendency will likely carry over to his still-nascent tenure in Queens.

Padres Continuing Juan Soto Trade Talks

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Chatter about a potential Juan Soto trade has gained steam within the past few days. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote on Tuesday the Padres were “almost certain” to deal the star outfielder this offseason. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported this morning that the Friars are engaging other clubs in discussions about the winter’s top trade candidate.

While there’s no indication one team has moved ahead as any sort of favorite, it seems increasingly likely the Padres will pull the trigger on a deal — perhaps as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings. San Diego’s biggest motivation would be to subtract Soto’s arbitration salary, projected at $33MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, from their books. Making a trade relatively early in the offseason would afford the front office more clarity as they subsequently look to deepen the roster in other areas.

The Yankees have made no secret of their desire to add a left-handed hitting outfielder. None would be as impactful as Soto, who could slot into left field to form an otherworldly corner outfield tandem with Aaron Judge. On Wednesday, SNY’s Andy Martino wrote that while San Diego and the Yankees continued ongoing dialogue, talks were still in their early stages and no deal was close.

[Related: The Best Fits For A Juan Soto Trade]

If the Padres accelerate discussions on Soto with the Yankees or another team, it seems controllable starting pitching would be a focal point of the return. Brendan Kuty of the Athletic wrote on Wednesday that San Diego was looking for upper-level rotation help in Soto talks. Both Passan and Dennis Lin of the Athletic expressed a similar sentiment.

That’s no surprise. Rotation depth is the biggest question facing president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office. Each of Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez hit free agency. (Martinez has already come off the board by agreeing to a two-year deal with the Reds.) Beyond Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, the Padres have some combination of Pedro Avila, Jay Groome, Matt Waldron, Glenn Otto and Jairo Iriarte as rotation options. That’s nowhere near sufficient for a team that hopes to compete, meaning the Padres need to bring in at least two (ideally three) starters.

That’d be difficult to accomplish via free agency. Lin wrote yesterday that the team was currently operating with around $10-20MM in payroll space. That probably wouldn’t be enough to add more than one notable starter. As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, the cost of back-end starting pitching has landed in the low eight-figure range early in the offseason. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson signed with St. Louis for $11MM and $13MM, respectively. Martinez secured a $13MM average annual value on his contract with Cincinnati. Rebound candidate Luis Severino received a $13MM guarantee from the Mets.

Adding someone of that nature could require all of the financial resources presently at the front office’s disposal. The Padres need multiple starters and are likely to look for some kind of relief help after seeing Josh Hader hit free agency and flipping Scott Barlow to the Guardians for Enyel De Los Santos. They need a backup catcher behind Luis Campusano and could stand to bring in position player depth off the bench.

Accomplishing all that won’t be possible without clearing payroll. They have smaller alternatives outside of a Soto trade. Center fielder Trent Grisham, with a projected $4.9MM arbitration salary, could move. There’d be plenty of interest in second baseman Ha-Seong Kim, who is due $10MM (including a $2MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option) in his final season before free agency. They’d have a harder time offloading the likes of Jake Cronenworth or Robert Suarez and almost certainly won’t be able to trade Xander Bogaerts, whose $280MM free agent deal seemed well above market value.

Soto projects as the highest-paid player on next year’s roster. Trading him would clear the most short-term spending room of any move the Padres could make. They’d bring back some amount of MLB-ready help in that deal, although they’d clearly recoup far less than they surrendered to acquire Soto at the 2022 trade deadline. With only one season of club control and a hefty projected salary that’ll rule out a lot of organizations, the trade value is less than one might expect for an MVP-caliber player.

The closest analogue is the 2020 Mookie Betts trade. The Red Sox received Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong while offloading around $48MM on the underwater David Price contract. Verdugo, the headliner, was a 24-year-old outfielder with five seasons of club control who had hit .294/.342/.475 the year before. (By measure of wRC+, that was 12 percentage points better than league average in the “juiced ball” 2019 season.) Downs ranked 86th on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects at the time. Wong was a mid-tier talent in the Dodgers farm system.

San Diego should top that return if they’re not attaching another contract. Yet it’s possible they don’t return anyone as valuable as the top three talents (MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams and James Wood) whom they sent to the Nationals to acquire Soto.

Each of Kuty and Jon Heyman of the New York Post unsurprisingly indicate the Yankees are unlikely to include Jasson Dominguez or Anthony Volpe in a Soto package. Kuty adds that New York is also reluctant to relinquish pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, while Heyman indicates they prefer to retain Michael King. Both Kuty and Heyman float right-hander Clarke Schmidt as a possible piece of the return. Schmidt, who is projected for a $2.6MM salary and eligible for arbitration for four seasons, would likely be more of a secondary piece after turning in a 4.64 ERA with decent strikeout and walk numbers over 159 innings.

Of course, the Padres will consider offers from teams outside the Bronx. The Cubs have shown interest; Passan floats the Giants and Phillies as possibilities, although a deal with San Francisco would be made challenging by the intra-divisional aspect. They’ll likely be limited to high-payroll clubs with a legitimate chance to compete in 2024. As a one-year rental, Soto isn’t a fit for teams that aren’t firmly in “win-now” mode.

Martino reported yesterday that the Mets were likely to remain on the sidelines as they align their contention window more firmly towards ’25. Passan indicates the Red Sox have a similar reluctance to surrender much future value for a rental. He adds that the Mariners — a strong fit from a roster perspective — may be deterred by Soto’s projected salary.

As for San Diego, trading Soto would open the ability to make a run at some players in the middle tiers of free agency. Passan reports that the Friars could pursue KBO center fielder Jung Hoo Lee and/or NPB reliever Yuki Matsui if they made a move on Soto. Lee, whom MLBTR predicts for a five-year, $50MM pact, could step into the outfield spot vacated by Soto’s departure. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM contract on Matsui — a left-hander who worked to a 1.57 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout rate in 57 1/3 innings during his final season in Japan.

MLBTR Podcast: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Offseason Questions

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Could someone like Frankie Montas as a one-year rental bounce back and/or Brandon Woodruff coming off an injury be of interest to the Orioles as a starting pitcher? (15:25)
  • The Reds seemingly have a lot of payroll flexibility. However, I’ve been a Reds fan my whole life and I don’t want to set myself up for disappointment. Realistically, how much do you think they’ll spend? Has to be at least 35 to 40 million, right? Right? (19:10)
  • Farhan Zaidi and the Giants are once again claiming to be “all-in” on the free agent market. Do you think that players not wanting to play in San Francisco, for a variety of reasons, is a substantial factor in past and future failures to bring in star caliber talent? (27:25)
  • What would it take for the Mariners to sign Juan Soto to a long term contract if they can acquire him via trade? (33:55)

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