To say the current offseason hasn’t panned out the way fans hoped would be putting things mildly. Fresh off a heartbreaking 2022 postseason exit and a narrow 2023 postseason miss, Seattle fans hoped to see significant investment in the team that would help put the on-field product over the top. Instead, ownership has opted to place some rather clear payroll restrictions on the front office in light of ongoing uncertainty regarding the team’s television rights.
The M’s are hardly alone in that regard, but that’s of little consolation to a fan base that has seen Eugenio Suarez, Teoscar Hernandez and Jarred Kelenic all depart. Incoming bats like Mitch Garver, Luke Raley, Luis Urias and the reacquired Mitch Haniger all have upside, but with the exception of Garver they lack the recent track records of Suarez and Hernandez. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said early in the offseason that much of the turnover would be in service of improving the team’s contact skills, but each of Garver, Haniger and especially Raley have strikeout concerns of their own. That’s not true to the same extent as Suarez, Hernandez and Kelenic, but the M’s haven’t exactly stockpiled plus bat-to-ball skills and overhauled their offensive identity, either.
The offseason isn’t over, but a good bit of the Mariners’ heavy lifting has been completed. Dipoto said recently that he still envisions potential additions both in the infield and the bullpen. However, that doesn’t mean there’s a blank check or that there aren’t caveats to consider. He indicated earlier in the offseason that the payroll would likely increase but perhaps not by a significant level. The Mariners are currently about $10-11MM shy of last year’s mark. There’s some spending room, but they’ll also likely want to leave some room for in-season acquisitions. On the trade front, Dipoto acknowledged that he’s received interest in young starters like Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo but also all but stated he has little appetite to deal from his coveted stock of youthful arms.
What options could the Mariners take to fit those bullpen and infield goals, then? Focusing on the former seems like a fool’s errand; there are any number of relievers who could be acquired, and the Mariners under the current front office regime have often focused on lesser-known names whom they believe they can take to a new level. That’s been the case with a number of success stories, including Paul Sewald, Justin Topa, Andres Munoz, Drew Steckenrider, Tayler Saucedo, Gabe Speier and others.
It’s possible there’s a similar preference for an unexpected acquisition in the infield, but the supply of names is both more finite and easier to pinpoint. Let’s run through some options who could be acquired without seismically increasing payroll.
Free Agents
- Whit Merrifield: Merrifield might be the most straightforward answer. He’s a high-contact second baseman with modest pop who’s spent the bulk of his career in a pitcher-friendly setting (Kauffman Stadium) not entirely dissimilar from the Mariners’ own pitcher-friendly venue, T-Mobile Park. Merrifield fits the previously stated goal of reducing the team’s strikeout rate better than any of their offseason acquisitions to date. He could play second base regularly, pushing Josh Rojas and Urias into a platoon at third base. And, in the event of injuries in the outfield, Merrifield is an experienced contingency option who could slide into the outfield, with Rojas moving back over to second base. Merrifield hit .272/.318/.382 last year with Toronto, though he struggled in the season’s final six weeks. His end-of-season numbers are more or less in line with his slash dating back to the 2021 season. Merrifield will soon turn 35, so he’s likely limited to a two-year deal.
- Gio Urshela: Urshela boasts plenty of contact with less speed than Merrifield but a bit more pop and solid defense at third base. His 2023 season came to an end after just 228 plate appearances due to a pelvic fracture. He hit .299/.329/.374 before landing on the injured list, and since 2021 he’s a .281/.323/.425 hitter. Assuming he’s healthy, Urshela would give the Mariners plenty of contact, good defense at third and 10 to 15 home runs. Given his injury-shortened 2023 season, he’s probably capped at two years and could settle for a one-year pact.
- Tim Anderson: Anderson has already said he’s willing to move to second base, which is where the Mariners would play him in deference to J.P. Crawford. He hasn’t rated as a strong defensive shortstop for the past few years anyhow, and last year his bat experienced a precipitous decline; in 524 trips to the plate, he batted just .245/.286/.296. Awful as that output was, Anderson isn’t far removed from being one of the best-hitting infielders in the game. From 2019-22, he led the Majors with a .318 average. His .318/.347/.473 line during that time helped him make two All-Star teams and win a Silver Slugger Award. Given last year’s disastrous season, a one-year deal worth less than the $14MM option the White Sox declined seems likely.
- Justin Turner: He’s 39 years old, but you wouldn’t know it looking at Turner’s .276/.345/.455 batting line in 2023 or his overall .277/.352/.455 slash dating back to 2021. Turner might not be a good defensive option at the hot corner anymore, but he doesn’t necessarily need to be a full-time infielder with both Urias and Rojas on the roster. The Mariners could play Turner at the hot corner occasionally, giving either Rojas or Urias the nod at second on those days, depending on the matchup. Turner has never whiffed in more than 18% of his plate appearances in a season, and while he ought to command a nice price on a one-year deal, even a $16MM guarantee would only put the Mariners about $5MM north of where they finished the 2023 season.
Trade Candidates
- Jorge Polanco, Twins: Polanco has been locked into the Twins’ infield since 2017, and over his past 2695 plate appearances he’s batted .270/.338/.455 with 95 homers. The veteran switch-hitter is earning $10.5MM this season and has a $12MM option for 2025. On paper, there’s a strong matchup between a Twins club looking to add some MLB-ready pitching and a Mariners club looking for a clear infield upgrade but unwilling to part with any of its young arms in order to acquire a pure 2024 rental. Young pitchers like Bryce Miller likely have more trade value than Polanco on his own, but the Twins typically have little issue balancing the scales with minor leaguers or back-end 40-man pieces (as they did in last year’s Pablo Lopez/Luis Arraez swap and the year prior in the Chris Paddack/Taylor Rogers trade).
- Kyle Farmer, Twins: Farmer is a one-year rental who has less of a track record of production than Polanco. He’s a lefty masher that can handle any infield position and even has ample experience behind the plate (albeit primarily as a minor leaguer). At $6.05MM for the coming season, he’s well within the Mariners’ budget. Farmer hit .256/.317/.408 last year — numbers right in line with his .258/.316/.402 slash in nearly 1500 plate appearances since 2021. He wouldn’t be a slam-dunk upgrade to the infield mix but could deepen it and provide some insurance in the event that Urias and/or Rojas continue to struggle in 2024.
- Isaac Paredes, Rays: The Mariners showed interest in Paredes in early December. Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander downplayed the possibility of moving his breakout third baseman but acknowledged he’d listened to interest, as he does on most players. Paredes ripped 31 homers while hitting .250/.352/.488 for Tampa Bay this past season. He’ll play next season at just 25. It’d be hard for the Rays to part with him, but he’s already into arbitration as a Super Two player and the team does have more third base depth than rotation depth after major injuries to Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs. If the Rays were to move Paredes, they have top prospects Curtis Mead and Junior Caminero right behind him. With four years of club control and the type of production he showed in 2023, Paredes is the type of player who could command four, five or even six years of a plug-and-play big league rotation piece.
- Christopher Morel, Cubs: Trade talk on Morel has cooled down. President of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins downplayed the chances of a deal coming together at last week’s Cubs Convention. Still, Hoyer himself acknowledged early in the winter that Morel lacked a path to playing time at second base, his best position, thanks to the presence of Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson in the middle infield. A Morel trade isn’t likely, and his prodigious strikeout totals run counter to the idea of bolstering the Mariners’ contact profile anyhow. But he’d add punch in the middle of the lineup — 42 homers in 854 MLB plate appearances — and the Cubs could perhaps use some more solidity at the back of the rotation. They have a growing number of young arms themselves but lack a clear fifth starter and could see Kyle Hendricks become a free agent next winter.
- Ha-Seong Kim, Padres: Trade talk surrounding Kim has died down a bit since the Padres trimmed their payroll in other ways, but Kim is entering the final season of his contract before free agency. (His contract has a 2025 mutual option, but he’ll turn that down in favor of free agency.) After a tough first season in the Majors, Kim has come around with a .256/.338/.391 batting line over the past two seasons and emerged as an elite defender with above-average speed and contact skills. He swiped 38 bags and won his first Gold Glove at second base in 2023. He’s also adept at both shortstop and third base. He’s owed just $8MM for the 2024 season. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin wrote last week that the Padres have continued discussing the possibility internally.
- Jake Cronenworth, Padres: Taking on the entirety of the seven-year, $80MM deal still owed to Cronenworth isn’t something the Mariners or even a team without current payroll constraints would be willing to do. But Cronenworth hit .256/.338/.431 from 2020-22, including a 21-homer, .266/.340/.460 showing in 2021. If the Padres are willing to cover some of Cronenworth’s deal — which only pays him $7MM this coming season — or take on some money of their own (e.g. Mitch Haniger), Cronenworth could be acquired relatively cheaply.
Teams with Various Young, Controllable Infielders
- Cardinals: It’s an oversimplification at this point to note that the Cardinals are deep in young infielders and the Mariners are deep in young starters. The two teams have discussed their respective “surpluses,” and no trade has come together. Much as some fans may see merit in swapping Nolan Gorman for Logan Gilbert, or Brendan Donovan for Bryan Woo or whatever other iterations of an infielder-for-starter swap you care to dream up, Dipoto and St. Louis counterpart John Mozeliak have yet to agree. Between Gorman (five years of control), Donovan (four years), Tommy Edman (signed through 2025), Jordan Walker (six years) and top prospect Masyn Winn (six-plus years), there are more players than at-bats to go around. The Cards will see Paul Goldschmidt become a free agent at season’s end, however, possibly opening up first base for one of their young infielders. Walker has already moved to the outfield. Donovan and Edman can play anywhere. All of these players can still be optioned, too. There’s no grave urgency for the Cards to deal from their wealth of talent, but conceptually, the fit makes sense.
- Reds: Different NL Central team, similar story. Cincinnati was already deep in infielders before adding Jeimer Candelario on top of Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Jonathan India and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. The Candelario signing prompted many — myself included — to expect an infield-for-pitching trade that has yet to materialize. But if the Reds indeed plan to play Steer in left field full-time, there’s a lack of urgency to get a deal done here as well. None of Marte, De La Cruz, McLain or Encarnacion-Strand has a full season in the Majors. McLain is the closest, and while he was excellent as a rookie, he might also be needed at shortstop if De La Cruz requires more Triple-A time. Marte was terrific but only saw 123 plate appearances. India won NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2021, but his bat has declined considerably since then. He’s no longer the clear infield fixture he once looked to be, and a below-average defender at second base with a roughly average .246/.333/.394 slash line (98 wRC+) over the past two seasons isn’t going to fetch a meaningful rotation upgrade on his own.
- Orioles: Baltimore fans are still wondering when the organization’s move to upgrade the rotation is coming. Much of the focus has been on White Sox righty Dylan Cease, but the Mariners have a bevy of controllable arms to match the Orioles’ impressive stock of infielders. Gunnar Henderson is the long-term third baseman. Shortstop is earmarked for current No. 1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday. First base currently belongs to a pair of Ryans: O’Hearn and Mountcastle. That’d be a strong group of infielders as it is, but it’s only scratching the surface. The O’s have top prospects Jordan Westburg and Joey Ortiz already on the 40-man roster. Both debuted in 2023. Fellow top prospect Connor Norby isn’t far off, nor is slugging third baseman Coby Mayo, who could also muscle his way into the first base or corner outfield mix. Veterans Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias give the Orioles some insurance if the kids don’t hit right away, but they also provide critical depth that makes it easier for the O’s to move someone like Westburg, Norby, Ortiz or Mayo to get a controllable pitcher.
The Chapman Effect
Unless Matt Chapman determines the long-term deal he wants isn’t attainable this winter and opts for some type of pillow arrangement, he’s not going to sign in Seattle — not without a serious pivot from ownership in terms of willingness to spend. Even on a one-year deal, he’d probably cost more than the Mariners prefer to spend. But Chapman still could impact Seattle’s infield pursuit. For instance, if he signs with the Giants — his top rumored fit — that could make San Francisco more willing to trade J.D. Davis. If Chapman goes back to Toronto, it becomes more feasible that the Jays would consider dealing young Davis Schneider. Wherever Chapman lands, he could prompt a domino effect that adds a new entrant or two to the trade market.
