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MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Mets’ Catching Conundrum, Mariners, Diamondbacks

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Episode 8 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by Will Sammon of The Athletic to discuss:

  • The Mets’ start to the season (1:44)
  • What they’ll do with Francisco Alvarez and Gary Sanchez once Tomas Nido and Omar Narvaez return from the IL (5:31)
  • Where they could look to improve at the trade deadline (10:18)
  • The mood in their clubhouse as they overcome a slow start to the season (14:24)

Then, Simon is joined by Darragh McDonald of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

  • What’s going on with the Mariners lineup, and could they move on from Kolten Wong and AJ Pollock? (19:41)
  • Can the Marlins maintain their solid start to the season, and would they consider buying at the deadline? (24:54)
  • What makes the Diamondbacks such a strong team this year? (29:25)

Check out our past episodes!

  • The Cardinals’ U-Turn on Willson Contreras, Mitch Keller’s breakout, and the state of the Padres – listen here
  • Willson Contreras, the Rays’ success, what’s happening with the Astros – listen here
  • White Sox trade candidates, Red Sox options for improvements, managers on the hot seat – listen here

Mariners, Pedro Severino Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners have agreed to a minor league pact with veteran catcher Pedro Severino, tweets Tacoma Rainiers director of communications Paul Braverman. Severino, a client of Republik Sports, opted out of a minor league deal with the Padres last week. He’s been assigned to Triple-A Tacoma and will give the Mariners some catching depth there.

The 29-year-old Severino had a strong start at the plate with the Padres’ Triple-A club, slashing .286/.400/.476 with three home runs, three doubles and more walks (12) than strikeouts (10) in his first 75 plate appearances. He even added a surprising three stolen bases, matching his career-high from any prior season.

Severino has logged Major League time in each of the past eight seasons, typically serving as a backup or the right-handed end of a catching platoon. Dating back to the 2019 season, he’s a .248/.316/.396 hitter with 29 homers, 38 doubles, an 8.6% walk rate and a 23.9% strikeout rate in 959 plate appearances (mostly with the Orioles).

As far as catchers go, Severino is a solid hitter — evidenced both by his big start to the season in El Paso and that respectable four-year run from 2019-22. However, he’s long graded out as a poor defensive backstop. Severino routinely posts below-average framing marks, and Defensive Runs Saved dings him for -18 in his 2574 career innings behind the dish. He does have a solid 28.5% caught-stealing rate in the big leagues, but his 33 passed balls from 2015-22 are the 22nd-most in MLB — despite the fact that all but one name ahead of him on the list (the now-retired Josh Phegley) have at least 600 more innings behind the plate. Statcast’s tracking of catchers’ blocking data only dates back to 2020, but Severino ranks last among big league catchers in its Blocks Above Average metric.

The Mariners are largely set behind the plate, with slugging Cal Raleigh taking the majority of the playing time and veteran Tom Murphy backing him up. In Tacoma, the Mariners have Jacob Nottingham and minor league veteran Brian O’Keefe as their primary options, though catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel has also logged a pair of games behind the plate. Bringing Severino into the mix will give them another option behind the dish and another bat to work into the lineup against left-handed pitching. In 449 big league plate appearances against southpaws, Severino is a .260/.325/.436 hitter.

Mariners Sign Marcus Walden To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners have agreed to a minor league pact with former Red Sox right-hander Marcus Walden. The signing was first announced by the Gastonia Honey Hunters of the independent Atlantic League, for whom Walden had been pitching to begin the season. Mariners director of Triple-A communications Paul Braverman tweets that Walden will join the team’s Triple-A rotation, making his first start today.

Now 34 years old, Walden pitched well in Boston from 2018-19, totaling 92 2/3 innings of 3.79 ERA ball with a 23.3% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate. That includes 78 frames of 3.81 ERA ball in a supercharged 2019 run-scoring environment that saw 58 players club at least 30 home runs. Walden was hit hard in 13 1/3 innings during the shortened 2020 campaign (14 runs in 13 1/3 innings) and hasn’t pitched in the Majors since, however. He’s had stints with the Triple-A clubs for the Red Sox, Cubs and Brewers along the way, pitching to a mid-4.00s ERA at each stop.

Over the past two seasons, Walden has spent 70 1/3 innings pitching with the Atlantic League’s Gastonia club, working to a combined 2.82 ERA. That includes 20 innings of 2.70 ball so far in 2023, though it’s perhaps his 24-to-2 K/BB ratio that’s garnered more attention (31.2% strikeout rate, 2.6% walk rate).

Seattle’s rotation took a huge hit early in the season when former AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray required Tommy John surgery, but the team’s rotation remains strong. Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert have all pitched well — Kirby, in particular — and rookie Bryce Miller has come up to the Majors and stepped seamlessly onto the starting staff. In 25 1/3 innings over his first four outings, he’s logged a sensational 1.42 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate against a 2.3% walk rate.

The fifth spot is a bit murkier. Veteran Marco Gonzales had been posting solid enough numbers for much of the season, but a recent eight-run drubbing at the hands of the Red Sox sent his ERA skyrocketing from 4.42 to 6.10. He’s now yielded eight runs in two of  his past four starts (although three of those were unearned). Fellow vet Chris Flexen has struggled when he’s been asked to step into the rotation as well.

The journeyman Walden isn’t likely to jump into that mix anytime soon, but he’ll join southpaw Tommy Milone as an experienced arm in Tacoma who could be called upon for a spot start or to give the ’pen some length if the need arises. In 366 2/3 career innings at the Triple-A level, Walden has a 4.47 ERA.

Mariners Notes: Caballero, Wong, Moore, Bullpen

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Rookie infielder Jose Caballero’s initial call-up to the Mariners’ roster was expected to be a short-term stint to provide some depth while utilityman Sam Haggerty dealt with a concussion, but he’s parlaying that opportunity into a larger role. As Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes, he’s already made a strong impression on manager Scott Servais.

“From the day he showed up here, he was not in awe of anything,” Servais said of Caballero, going on to praise the 26-year-old’s baserunning, on-base ability and defense. “…He understands how to play and he doesn’t back off.” President of baseball ops Jerry Dipoto had similar praise, telling Corey Brock of The Athletic that Caballero “has been terrific in every way.”

Caballero has indeed impressed, surging out to a .276/.371/.431 batting line with a pair of homers, three doubles and a 6-for-6 showing on the basepaths through his first 24 games (70 plate appearances). He’s had a bit of good fortune on balls in play (.333), but even if his average took a slight step back, an 11.4% walk rate would keep his on-base percentage plenty strong.

The plate discipline hasn’t been a small-sample fluke, either; Caballero has a career 13% walk rate in the minors and has chased pitches off the plate at a lower rate than the average big leaguer thus far in his young career. Statcast also credits him with 92nd percentile sprint speed, so there’s good reason to believe he can keep swiping bags at a high rate of success.

Caballero’s immediate strong play further shines a light on the mounting struggles of veteran second baseman Kolten Wong, whose .177/.259/.208 batting line (108 plate appearances, 40 wRC+) ranks among the worst in baseball. Wong’s 20.4% strikeout rate is the worst of his career, and he’s making hard contact at career-worst levels as well (85 mph average exit velo, 24% hard-hit). Statcast ranks Wong in the fifth percentile of MLB players or lower in each of hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, barrel rate, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA. His once plus sprint speed is down to the 37th percentile as well.

In the wake of such a miserable start to the season, Wong has already begun to cede time at second base to Caballero. The rookie has made five starts at second base since Wong’s name was last penciled into the starting lineup. Wong has been on the bench, but the Mariners will have to figure out how to align their infield and bench mix before long. Mariners GM Justin Hollander told reporters yesterday that utilityman Dylan Moore could be reinstated from the injured list during the team’s current homestand (Twitter link via Divish).

Moore, who over the winter signed a three-year, $8.875MM contract that bought his final arbitration seasons and one free-agent year, has yet to play in 2023 due to oblique and core injuries. He’s played in four minor league rehab games, however, and the team apparently believes he could be back on the big league roster with only a few more. The current homestand runs through May 31.

The 30-year-old Moore has had  an up-and-down run with the Mariners since debuting in 2019, alternating between poor and strong showings at the plate on an every-other-year basis. He’s a career .208/.317/.384 hitter, though as evidenced by a .255/.358/.496 showing in 159 plate appearances in 2020 and a .224/.368/.385 line in 255 plate appearances last year, he has plenty of on-base ability and some pop in his bat. Moore has 35 home runs and 65 steals in 381 career games, and he’s drawn outstanding defensive ratings at second base, third base and in both outfield corners.

Seattle’s bench currently consists of backup catcher Tom Murphy, the aforementioned Haggerty (who has had minimal playing time so far) and struggling veterans Wong and AJ Pollock. Barring an injury elsewhere in the lineup, it’s likely someone from that bench group will be displaced by Moore’s return. Haggerty has minor league options remaining, and that route would preserve more depth, but he batted .256/.335/.403 last season in 201 plate appearances, showing plenty of defensive versatility himself. The Mariners will have to weigh that against the poor starts of both Wong and Pollock in determining their preferred course of action.

The Mariners are also anticipating a return to health for some important bullpen arms (Twitter links via Divish). Closer Andres Munoz and righty Penn Murfee are both expected to join the Mariners on their upcoming road trip, which runs from June 1-11. Munoz has been throwing bullpen sessions, and Murfee has responded well to a platelet-rich plasma injection. Both will need quick tune-ups on minor league rehab stints, but they’re only a matter of weeks away.

Munoz, 24, broke out as one of the best relievers in baseball in 2022 when he pitched to a 2.49 ERA with a stellar 38.7% strikeout rate against a 6% walk rate. He averaged a whopping 100.3 mph on his heater, and his 21.6% swinging-strike rate trailed only Edwin Diaz among all big league pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched.

Murfee, meanwhile, has pitched 82 1/3 innings of 2.73 ERA ball dating back to last year’s MLB debut. He’s fanned 27.9% of his opponents against an 8.3% walk rate without displaying the type of platoon splits that many fellow sidearmers tend to carry. Lefties have batted just .210/.297/.305 against Murfee, while right-handers have posted an even more dreadful .165/.232/.303 slash.

Easton McGee Expected To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Mariners right-hander Easton McGee is expected to undergo Tommy John surgery, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. If that does indeed come to fruition, it will wipe out the remainder of his 2023 season and part of his 2024 as well.

McGee, 25, was acquired from the Red Sox in an offseason trade and begun 2023 in the minors. He made five Triple-A starts with a 3.14 ERA and was recalled to make a spot start against the Blue Jays at the end of April. He fared extremely well in that game, tossing 6 2/3 scoreless innings while allowing just one hit and one walk. Unfortunately, he was placed on the injured list the next day and will now seemingly be facing a very significant absence, as TJS usually requires a recovery period of 14 to 18 months. The Mariners will eventually transfer him to the 60-day IL whenever they need his roster spot.

Drafted by the Rays in 2016, he climbed his way up to the big leagues with that club last year, making his major league debut with a scoreless three-inning appearance. He spent most of the season in Triple-A, tossing 107 2/3 innings over 22 starts and five relief appearances. He posted a 5.43 ERA in that time with a 17.4% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate and 39.6% ground ball rate. The Rays designated him for assignment in October, after which the Red Sox claimed him off waivers before flipping him to Seattle for cash a month later.

This is obviously horrible news for McGee, but the one silver lining is that the injury happened after he was promoted to the big leagues. That means he will collect major league pay and service time as he spends the rest of the season on the injured list.

For the Mariners, they first recalled McGee as they were trying to cover for the absence of Robbie Ray, who himself required Tommy John surgery. Bryce Miller has since stepped up and seized that rotation spot next to Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Marco Gonzales, but they will no longer be able to count on Easton as a depth option for the rest of this season.

Rule 5 Draft Update: May 2023

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It’s been more than a months since we last checked in on this year’s group of Rule 5 draftees and how they’re faring around the league. Fifteen players were selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft — those unfamiliar with the event can read up on the specifics here — and since last check there have been a few notable developments among the group. Let’s take a look…

Currently on a Major League Roster

Thaddeus Ward, RHP, Nationals (from Red Sox)
Since last update: 7 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 3 hits, 1 HR, 9 BB, 7 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 14 2/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 8 H, 2 HR, 24.2% strikeout rate, 21% walk rate, 51.5% ground-ball rate

Since last check in early April, Ward has had a three-walk appearance in which he pitched just one inning and a four-walk appearance in which he only recorded two outs. His command has been among the worst in baseball, as only two pitchers (min. 10 innings) have walked a greater percentage of their opponents: twice-DFA’ed right-hander Javy Guerra and injured Rockies righty Dinelson Lamet.

At last check, Ward was struggling with that command but still had fanned more than 30% of his opponents. He’s seen his strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate and average fastball all dip over the past five weeks. The Nationals have done a decent job hiding him — he’s appeared in just 25% of their games — and with a projected playoff chance under 1%, they might not care about the rough performance. Ward was one of the Red Sox’ top pitching prospects before a more than two-year layoff due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and 2021 Tommy John surgery. He posted a 2.28 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 51 1/3 minor league innings in last year’s return effort. The Nationals are rebuilding anyway, and as long as they still like Ward’s stuff, they can afford to let him take his lumps in the big leagues even though he entered the season with just 41 innings above A-ball.

Ryan Noda, 1B/OF, Athletics (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 103 plate appearances, .221/.417/.416, 2 HR, 22.3% walk rate, 31.1% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 140 plate appearances, .215/.400/.421, 4 HR, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB, 21.4% walk rate, 32.1% strikeout rate

The only five hitters in baseball with more walks than Noda’s 30 are Juan Soto, Adley Rutschman, Ian Happ, Matt Olson and Max Muncy. All but Muncy have more plate appearances. Noda’s massive walk rate leads MLB’s 171 qualified hitters … but his 32.1% strikeout rate is also tied for the seventh-highest. A whopping 56% of his plate appearances have ended in either a walk, strikeout or home run, making the 27-year-old the embodiment of a three-true-outcome player.

The strikeouts may be tough to watch, but Noda’s .400 OBP is tied for tenth among qualified hitters. He’s picked up 13 extra-base hits, is sitting on a strong .206 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) and boasts a 140 wRC+ despite his low batting average. Defensive metrics feel he’s been a competent, if not slightly above-average first baseman. Noda is getting on base 40% of the time he comes to the plate, and there’s no way the A’s (or any team) would take him off the roster as long as he’s doing that.

Jose Hernandez, LHP, Pirates (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 11 innings, 4.09 ERA, 9 hits, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 17 1/3 innings, 3.12 ERA, 15 hits, 2 HR, 27.5% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate, 38.3% ground-ball rate

Injuries to Jarlin Garcia and Rob Zastryzny — who was activated today — left Hernandez as the lone lefty option in Derek Shelton’s bullpen, but Hernandez has handled the role just fine. The Orioles tagged him for a pair of runs in an appearance that saw him record just one out last week, but Hernandez has generally been sharp despite skipping Triple-A entirely.

Hernandez is averaging just under 96 mph on his fastball, and his 12.5% swinging-strike rate is better than the league average. He’s picked up a pair of holds for the Pirates and his 23.2 K-BB% ties him for 28th among 192 qualified relievers. He’s given up too much hard contact (89.9 mph average exit velocity, 40.4% hard-hit rate), but he looks the part of a useful big league reliever right now and shouldn’t be in any danger of losing his roster spot.

Blake Sabol, C/OF, Giants (from Pirates)
Since last update: 66 plate appearances, .323/.364/.565, 4 HR, 6.1% walk rate, 39.4% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 100 plate appearances, .280/.330/.473, 5 HR, 3 2B, 2 SB, 5% walk rate, 38% strikeout rate

Sabol has been on fire since our early-April look at the Rule 5’ers who made their Opening Day rosters, though he’s benefited from a mammoth .500 BABIP along the way. Still, the four long balls in that time show impressive pop, and the Giants have given him looks in both left field and at catcher.

Sabol has above-average sprint speed, exit velocity and hard-contact abilities, and both Statcast and FanGraphs give him above-average framing marks in his limited time behind the dish. However, he’s also needed a hefty .420 BABIP to get to his current production, and no player in baseball strikes out more often or swings and misses more often than Sabol has. Sabol’s 60.3% contact rate is the worst in Major League Baseball, and if he can’t improve that mark and start to draw some more walks, it’s hard to imagine continuing anything close to this level of production. Regression looks quite likely for this version of Sabol, but he walked and made contact at much better clips in Double-A and Triple-A last year, so there’s still hope for improvement as he gains more experience.

Mason Englert, RHP, Tigers (from Rangers)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 2.76 ERA, 13 hits, 3 HR, 5 BB, 13 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 23 2/3 innings, 4.18 ERA, 21 hits, 6 HR, 17.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 47.2% ground-ball rate

The Tigers have used Englert for more than an inning in nine of his 13 appearances, including eight outings of at least two innings (two of which were three-inning efforts). He’s provided the team with some length but also been used in a few leverage spots, evidenced by a pair of holds and, more regrettably, a pair of blown saves. While his strikeout rate is pedestrian, Englert’s 11.6% swinging-strike rate and 34.3% opponents’ chase rate are average or better. That doesn’t necessarily portend a major uptick in punchouts, but there’s probably more in the tank than his current 17.8% clip.

Englert has been far too homer-prone (2.28 HR/9), and that’s been his Achilles heel thus far. If he can rein in the long ball, he could give the Detroit bullpen some length for the balance of the season and perhaps even start some games should they need. The 23-year-old was a starter in the Rangers’ system prior to being selected by the Tigers last December.

Detroit has outperformed most expectations thus far, although at 19-22 with a -48 run differential, the Tigers still don’t look like viable contenders. If they’re hovering around the Wild Card race later in the year and Englert is struggling, perhaps they’d be tempted to move on, but for now he’s pitched well enough and the Tigers are far enough from the postseason picture that they can afford to keep him around even if he stumbles a bit.

Kevin Kelly, RHP, Rays (from Guardians)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 23 hits, 0 HR, 4 BB, 12 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 22 1/3 innings, 4.84 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 4% walk rate, 42.1% ground-ball rate

Kelly, 25, has looked sharp in most of his appearances but has been tagged for multiple earned runs three times — including a pair of three-run clunkers. For a short reliever, that’s… less than optimal. The Rays have felt comfortable using him in plenty of leverage spots, however, evidenced by a quartet of holds, a save and another blown save.

Kelly’s 4% walk rate gives the air of pinpoint command, but he’s also plunked three hitters and has a below-average 58.4% rate of throwing a first-pitch strike. He hasn’t allowed a home run, in part because he hasn’t allowed a single barreled ball this year. Kelly has avoided hard contact better than the average pitcher, eschewed walks and generally pitched better than his near-5.00 ERA might otherwise indicate. With the Rays firmly in contention, he’ll need to avoid a prolonged slump to stick on the roster, but it’s clear they believe he can be a solid reliever even with below-average velocity (92 mph average fastball) and strikeout abilities.

Currently on the Major League Injured List

  • Nic Enright, RHP, Marlins (from Guardians): Enright announced in February that just weeks after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, doctors diagnosed him with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s undergone treatment and been on a minor league rehab assignment as he rebuilds game strength. Enright is currently on Miami’s 60-day injured list, but baseball of course takes a back seat in this type of instance. We at MLBTR join fans of the Marlins, Guardians and every other organization in pulling for the 26-year-old Enright and wishing him a full recovery.
  • Noah Song, RHP, Phillies (from Red Sox): Ranked as the No. 65 prospect in the 2019 draft by Baseball America, Song slid to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. His professional experience is limited to 17 Low-A innings in 2019 while spending the past three seasons in the Navy but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves earlier this year, allowing him to play baseball. He’s on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list with a back strain, and it’s tough to imagine him just diving into a Major League bullpen after spending three years away from the game. Still, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski held that same title in Boston when the Red Sox drafted Song and has said since the Rule 5 Draft that he feels Song’s pure talent is worth the risk.
  • Wilking Rodriguez, RHP, Cardinals (from Yankees): The 33-year-old Rodriguez’s incredible story hit an abrupt roadblock when he underwent shoulder surgery earlier this month. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball and nine years since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. Since then, he’s been a staple in the Venezuelan Winter League and the Mexican League. The Yankees signed Rodriguez to a minor league deal last summer, but because he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and had enough prior professional experience, he was Rule 5-eligible and scooped up by the Cardinals. They can retain his rights into next season but would need to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter in order to do so, and he wouldn’t be optionable to until he spent 90 days on the active MLB roster next season. That scenario seems highly unlikely.

Currently in DFA Limbo

  • Gus Varland, RHP, Brewers (from Dodgers): Varland wowed the Brewers in spring training when he punched out 17 of his 35 opponents (48.6%), but he landed on the injured list on April 16 — three days after MLBTR’s last Rule 5 check-in — when he was struck by a comebacker. The diagnosis was a hand contusion, and Varland was back on a big league mound about three weeks later. The 26-year-old posted a 2.25 ERA through his first eight innings this year but did so with just five strikeouts against five walks. On May 15, the Cardinals clobbered him for nine runs on six hits (two homers) and three walks with one strikeout in just two-thirds of an inning. That outing sent Varland’s ERA careening to its current 11.42 mark. The Brewers designated him for assignment the next day. He’ll have to pass through waivers unclaimed — he’d retain all of his Rule 5 restrictions if claimed by another club — and offered back to the Dodgers after that.

Already Returned to their Former Club

  • Nick Avila, RHP: Avila allowed eight runs in ten spring innings with the White Sox and was returned to the Giants, for whom he posted an electric 1.14 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.
  • Andrew Politi, RHP: Politi was tagged for six runs on nine hits and three walks in 8 2/3 spring innings with the Orioles, who returned him to the Red Sox late in camp.
  • Jose Lopez, LHP: Lopez walked five batters in six frames with the Padres this spring, and the Friars returned him to the Rays on March 27.
  • Chris Clarke, RHP: The towering 6’7″ Clarke faced the tough task of cracking a deep Mariners bullpen and was returned to the Cubs late in spring training after allowing four runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in 6 2/3 innings.
  • Zach Greene, RHP: The Mets plucked Greene out of the Yankees’ system, but in 4 2/3 innings during spring training he yielded seven runs with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). The Mets returned him to the Yankees on March 14.

AL West Notes: Seager, Moniak, Rodriguez

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Rangers fans have been anticipating the imminent return of star shortstop Corey Seager from his hamstring injury for some time now. As noted by Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News, the club appears to have a clear plan in place for Seager’s rehab, which began yesterday, and return to action in the majors. After playing five innings at shortstop as planned last night, Seager is expected to start as the DH for the club’s Double-A affiliate in Frisco before playing seven innings at shortstop on Sunday. If all goes well, manager Bruce Bochy indicated that Seager could be activated from the injured list in time for Monday’s game against the Braves.

Should Seager indeed be ready to return early next week, the Rangers would return one of their best hitters to a team that has taken control of the AL West with a 23-14 record in the early going. Seager was off to a torrid start through 11 games this season, slashing .359/.468/.538 in 49 plate appearance prior to his stint on the IL. As the Rangers have indicated a desire to keep Ezequiel Duran in the lineup going forward, Seager’s return could cut into the playing time of players like Brad Miller, Robbie Grossman, and Bubba Thompson.

More from around the AL West…

  • The Angels today announced that they have recalled outfielder Mickey Moniak to the big league club. Moniak will take the roster spot of infielder Jake Lamb, who was previously reported to have been optioned down to Triple-A. A former 1st overall pick by the Phillies in 2016, Moniak has struggled offensively since his big league debut in 2020, slashing just .157/.218/.268 in 167 plate appearances, a slash line that’s 68% worse than league average by measure of wRC+. Moniak has impressed so far at the Triple-A level this season, however, with a solid .308/.355/.585 slash line in 141 plate appearances this season. Moniak figures to factor into the corner outfield mix along with Taylor Ward and Hunter Renfroe, with Mike Trout locked in as the everyday center fielder.
  • Mariners star Julio Rodriguez moved down to the sixth spot in the batting order in yesterday’s game against the Rangers, marking the first time this season the young outfielder batted outside of the leadoff spot. Manager Scott Servais told reporters, including The Athletic’s Corey Brock, that the move was designed to take pressure off of last year’s AL Rookie of the Year, who has scuffled to a .205/.270/.384 slash line, good for a wRC+ of just 85. Rodriguez, for his part, expressed support for the decision, noting that he believed it was the best thing for the team.

Mariners’ Offseason Trade Acquisitions Off To Slow Starts

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The Mariners mostly shied away from the free agent market on the heels of their drought-ending playoff berth. Instead, Seattle turned to trade to add to a lineup that had been a bit top-heavy in 2022. Their two most notable transactions took place within the first few weeks of the offseason: reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko were shipped to Toronto for slugger Teoscar Hernández, while the M’s dealt Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro to the Brewers for second baseman Kolten Wong.

Both Hernández and Wong are in their final seasons before free agency. Milwaukee had exercised a $10MM club option on Wong before trading him in what amounted to a roughly cash-neutral deal considering they took back Winker’s salary. Seattle took on a decent chunk of 2023 money to accommodate Hernández, who’d earn $14MM for his final season of arbitration eligibility (compared to the $1.25MM Swanson is making in his first of three arbitration years).

Hernández, in particular, could eventually net the club a compensatory draft choice by rejecting a qualifying offer and signing elsewhere next offseason. Yet both trades were primarily about bolstering the lineup in 2023 while avoiding the longer-term downside associated with a multi-year free agent deal.

To this point, neither player has met Seattle’s expectations. Hernández is sitting on a .215/.260/.396 batting line over 154 plate appearances. That’s nowhere close to the .283/.333/.519 line he’d compiled between 2020-22 to pick up a pair of Silver Slugger awards and down-ballot MVP finishes. His raw slash stats always seemed likely to dip somewhat with the move from Rogers Centre to T-Mobile Park. This has been a far more significant drop-off than is solely attributable to park factors and Hernández is performing worse on the road than he is in Seattle.

Hernández has popped seven home runs, putting him on a 27-homer pace over 600 plate appearances. He’s still barreling the ball up and making hard contact when he puts the ball in play. The middle-of-the-order form he’d shown for years in Toronto still looks to be there. Yet his plate discipline has been rough thus far, resulting in a career-worst 3.2% walk rate and a massive 35.1% strikeout percentage.

Selectivity has never been Hernández’s specialty. He’s always been an aggressive hitter, one who’s willing to trade some walks for power impact. He has pushed that too far to the extreme through his first few weeks in Seattle, though, as he’s chased nearly 40% of pitches outside the strike zone. It’s the 23rd-highest rate among 204 hitters with 100+ plate appearances; Hernández was closer to league average in that regard during his last few seasons in Toronto.

Wong, meanwhile, has been one of the least effective hitters in the majors to this point. He’s yet to connect on a homer in 94 trips to the plate, posting a .195/.287/.220 line overall. He has played well through his first five games in May after carrying a .171/.263/.186 slash through the end of April. The Mariners weren’t counting on Wong to be an impact bat but surely hoped for something approximating the solid .262/.337/.439 showing he put together over two years in Milwaukee.

The lefty-hitting Wong has long been a quality, well-rounded regular. He’s typically hit around a league average level, compensating for fringe power with plus contact skills. At his peak, he’s been a Gold Glove second baseman and a plus baserunner. His typically stellar defensive marks dropped off during his last season with the Brewers, as both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average gave him subpar grades in 2022.

Wong attributed his defensive drop to playing through leg injuries, offering some hope he’d turn things around after an offseason of rest. The early returns haven’t been promising, however. DRS has pegged Wong as an MLB-worst eight runs below average through 226 2/3 innings of second base work; Statcast has him one run worse than expected. Public defensive metrics can be wildly variable in small samples, but it’s a discouraging start for the 32-year-old’s efforts to recapture his formerly excellent form with the glove.

Without many early contributions from Hernández or Wong, Seattle’s position player group hasn’t been especially good. They’re 22nd in runs scored (157) and 25th in both on-base percentage (.302) and slugging (.372). After accounting for their pitcher-friendly ballpark, they’re 19th in offensive production as measured by wRC+. Their pitching and defense has kept them around average overall — they’re in fourth place in the AL West at 18-19 with a +14 run differential — but they’ll need more out of the lineup to earn a repeat playoff berth in an American League playoff mix that has 10 to 12 teams with realistic aspirations.

There’s certainly time for Seattle’s top offseason acquisitions to get things back on track. The M’s have by no means played themselves out of contention. Whether they make a serious run for the division and/or a Wild Card spot could be determined in large part by how quickly Hernández and Wong find their previous levels. With both players headed to the open market six months from now, their free agent outlooks are also to be determined based on their performances this summer.

Evan White To Undergo Hip Surgery

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Mariners first baseman Evan White will undergo another procedure on his left hip, the team informed reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). The recovery estimate is three months.

White is already on the 60-day injured list. He suffered an adductor strain two games into his Triple-A season and was initially expected to miss two months. That won’t come to be, as White unfortunately is headed under the knife yet again. His 2021 campaign was cut short by the first surgery he underwent on his left hip. The former first round draftee then missed the bulk of last season due to a sports hernia surgery.

For a third consecutive year, White is now going to be sidelined by a notable procedure. The initial estimate suggests he could return sometime in August, though the organization would surely be cautious with his ramp-up based on his extensive injury history. Even in the best case scenario, he’s now set to miss the majority of the year.

White hasn’t played a big league game since 2021. A well-regarded prospect during his time climbing the minor league ranks, he stumbled to a .165/.235/.308 line in 306 MLB plate appearances between 2020-21. He’s spent the bulk of the past couple years on the injured list and has only gotten Triple-A reps when healthy enough to take the field.

The Mariners signed White to a $24MM extension before he made his big league debut. He’s making $3MM this season and due successive salaries of $7MM and $8MM over the next two years. The Mariners have a pair of club options thereafter but they’re certainly trending towards declining those given White’s various health issues.

Seattle also got unfortunate news on star reliever Andrés Muñoz. The hard-throwing righty has been out since April 8 with a deltoid strain. He’d been nearing a rehab assignment but suffered a minor setback. Divish tweets that he experienced some shoulder soreness during a recent bullpen session. The M’s sent Muñoz for an MRI, which revealed some inflammation. He received a platelet-rich plasma injection and isn’t expected to begin a minor league stint until the end of the month.

Muñoz was one of the game’s best relievers in 2022. He worked to a 2.49 ERA through 65 innings, striking out an incredible 38.7% of batters faced while keeping his walks to a solid 6% rate. That understandably earned him plenty of high-leverage looks as the season wore on, as he saved four games and held 22 more leads.

Mariners Place Penn Murfee On 15-Day Injured List

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The Mariners have placed right-hander Penn Murfee on the 15-day injured list due to right elbow inflammation, according to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter link).  Right-hander Juan Then is being called up from Double-A in the corresponding move, and Then’s first appearance will mark his MLB debut.

Murfee made his own Major League debut in 2022 and immediately contributed to Seattle’s bullpen, posting a 2.99 ERA over 69 1/3 innings.  Murfee’s strikeout and walk rates were well above average, and he was one of the league’s best at inducing soft contact.  The overall results have improved this season as per Murfee’s 1.38 ERA over 15 innings, except with the red flag of a drastically inflated 16.7% walk rate.  A tiny .143 BABIP has certainly helped Murfee avoid much damage, though his SIERA is 4.52.

Walks have been a problem for the Mariners’ bullpen as a whole this season, even though the relief corps has still been quite solid overall.  However, it isn’t good news that the M’s are now missing two notable relievers in Murfee and Andres Munoz, who has spent close to a month on the 15-day IL due to a right deltoid strain that seems to be a bit more troublesome than initially anticipated.  For what it’s worth, Murfee’s elbow inflammation also seems relatively minor, as Divish tweets that the Mariners were hoping he could avoid an IL trip altogether.

Then was added to Seattle’s 40-man roster back in November, protecting righty from selection in the Rule 5 Draft.  Then was an international signing for the Mariners in 2016, and after being traded to the Yankees in November 2017, was re-acquired as part of the Edwin Encarnacion trade in June 2019.  Once the 2019 season was complete, things started to go sideways for Then, who (like all minor leaguers) lost the 2020 season to the pandemic, and then struggled through two injury-shortened seasons at the high-A and Double-A levels in 2021 and 2022.

MLB Pipeline ranks Then 23rd on their list of the Mariners’ top 30 prospects, noting that his performance in the Arizona Fall League merited a return to the ranking and apparently indicated that his elbow problems were behind him.  Back at Double-A this season, Then has a 27.5% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate over nine innings of work, but also a 5.00 ERA.

To this end, promoting Then to the majors and skipping Triple-A entirely seems like an aggressive move for the Mariners, based both on results and the fact that Then has pitched only 30 total innings (counting AFL and Dominican Winter League work) since the start of the 2022 season.  It could be that the M’s might be viewing Then as just a short-term add before figuring out a 40-man roster opening to accommodate another pitcher.

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