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Poll: Should The Mariners Trade Teoscar Hernández?

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The Mariners are one of many teams in an awkward spot right now. After breaking their postseason drought last year, they had hoped for another competitive season in 2023, but it hasn’t quite lived up to expectations so far. They have played 100 games and are currently 50-50, putting them fourth in the American League West, 8.5 games back of the Rangers while also trailing the Astros and Angels. They are 5.5 games back of the Blue Jays for the final American League Wild Card spot, with the Red Sox, Yankees and Angels in between.

That doesn’t necessarily mean all hope is lost, as those are surmountable obstacles (particularly the Wild Card chase). But their chances aren’t great at the moment, with the playoff odds at FanGraphs currently giving them an 11.6% chance of getting in while Baseball Prospectus has them at just 8.2%.

President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto discussed the club’s tough position last week, admitting that the Mariners have “not really separated ourselves in a meaningful way to be aggressive on the buying end” and might have to decide whether it is “better to make a push for the ’23 season or to better situate ourselves for ’24.” He went on to say they probably wouldn’t make any big splash like last year’s Luis Castillo acquisition and that selling is on the table because they always have “one foot in the camp of buyer and one foot in the camp of seller.”

There won’t be any need for the M’s to completely tear their roster down to the studs. The 2024 team will still feature a strong pitching staff, as their collective 3.80 earned run average is one of the five best in the majors and none of their hurlers are slated to reach free agency this winter. On the position player side, they will still be able to count on a core that consists of Julio Rodríguez, Eugenio Suárez, Cal Raleigh, Ty France and J.P. Crawford. They would have some offseason work to do, but there are enough ingredients there for them to see a path towards better results next year.

But as Dipoto mentioned, they may need to think about doing some selling, even if it’s not a total rebuild. The club has some impending free agents, but most of them won’t have much appeal. AJ Pollock is hitting just .173/.225/.323 and just landed on the injured list, while Kolten Wong’s offense is even worse at .162/.244/.229. Tom Murphy is hitting well this year but in a part-time backup role, and midseason trades of catchers can be tricky given the challenges of learning a new pitching staff.

They have one other impending free agent in Teoscar Hernández, which presents a difficult case for the club. He was just acquired from the Blue Jays in the offseason, with the M’s sending Erik Swanson and Adam Macko to Toronto for Hernández’s final arbitration season. His 2023 performance isn’t quite as rough as Pollock’s or Wong’s, but it’s been a disappointment nonetheless. Through the end of May, he was hitting .230/.268/.396 for a wRC+ of 85. He took off in June, slashing .303/.376/.573 for a 162 wRC+, but he’s crashed back to earth in July with a line of .203/.259/.316.

Overall, Hernández has a season-long batting line of .242/.293/.421. That amounts to a wRC+ of 99, indicating he’s been just a hair below league average. But the Mariners were surely hoping for something better than just average, especially because Hernández slashed .283/.333/.519 with the Jays from 2020 to 2022 for a 132 wRC+.

Defensive metrics have never like Hernández much, but are being kinder in 2023. He has -18 Defensive Runs Saved in his career but +7 this year. Outs Above Average has him at +2 in 2023 but -22 overall. His Ultimate Zone Rating is -18.3 for his career but 3.7 this year. Defensive metrics tend to be fickle from year to year, so it’s more likely this is a blip than that he’s suddenly turned himself into an above-average defender in his age-30 season. But he definitely has a bit of speed, having swiped 40 bags in his career and five this year.

If Hernández were playing up to his previous form, he would be a lock to both receive and reject a qualifying offer. In that case, the Mariners could have simply held onto him and taken their shot at contention, at least knowing that they could recoup a draft pick if he were to sign somewhere else. Now it’s less clear, since he’s performing closer to an average major leaguer. He might be tempted to take a QO and try to re-enter free agency after a stronger platform in 2024.

Spending roughly $20MM, which is where the QO will likely end up, on a player like Hernández wouldn’t necessarily be a disaster for the Mariners. Pollock and Wong departing will take $17MM off the books, and Hernández himself is making $14MM this year. But they will also see Castillo’s salary jump from $10MM this year (plus a $7MM signing bonus) to $22.75MM next year. Rodríguez will see his salary climb from $4MM to $10MM. Marco Gonzales, Evan White, Dylan Moore and Andrés Muñoz will also get raises in their contracts, and arbitration raises will be due to players like France and Paul Sewald.

Like just about every club, the Mariners will be hoping to keep their options open for Shohei Ohtani this winter, not to mention all the other potential free agents. Perhaps the prospect of putting close to $20MM in front of Hernández on day one of the offseason isn’t as attractive as it once seemed a few months ago.

But despite his middling season, he might still have significant trade appeal. The lists of upcoming free agents and potential trade candidates are both heavy on pitching, with few impact bats thought to be available. Perhaps some clubs around the league believe in Hernández enough to bet on a bounceback, especially with the dearth of other available options. His walk rate and hard hit rate are both down this year, but his rate of fly balls turning into home runs is also a big drop, sitting at 16.2% this year compared to 23.2% in the previous three seasons. Maybe moving away from the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park would help him get back on track.

Taking all those factors into consideration, it’s likely a tricky decision for Dipoto and his team. If they decide that 2023 isn’t their year, then trading him is probably the best thing to do since he’s an impending free agent and can’t help you next year. If he were to accept a qualifying offer, they’d essentially be back to square one but with a larger financial commitment for 2024. If there’s a compelling offer on the table now, perhaps it’s better to just take that and start focusing on next year’s club.

On the other hand, they are already working with an uninspiring offense. The Mariners’ collective batting line of .231/.311/.391 amounts to a wRC+ of 100, or exactly average. The corner outfield spots are a particular issue, given the struggles of both Pollock and Jarred Kelenic. The latter of those two cooled off after a hot start and recently put himself out of action for the next four to six weeks by kicking a water cooler and breaking a bone in his foot.

Subtracting Hernández from the corner outfield mix would only make matters worse, and the Mariners would then be looking to replace him in right field while facing the same weak market as every other club in the league. Although the club made the postseason last year, that’s still just one playoff appearance since 2001. If they were to hold Hernández and he gets hot for the final months of the season, he could help them compete and perhaps even get enough juice to reject a qualifying offer and net the club an extra draft pick.

Trading Hernández also comes with the risk of intangible results, in a negative way. Teams have often tried to balance buying and selling and been surprised by the effect it had on the clubhouse. The Brewers trading Josh Hader last year was one such example, but the same thing happened to the Mariners the year before. They traded closer Kendall Graveman and reliever Rafael Montero to the Astros for infielder Abraham Toro and reliever Joe Smith. They later backfilled their closer spot by acquiring Diego Castillo, hoping that the Castillo/Toro combination would be better than Graveman himself. But it didn’t work out and the club missed the playoffs as the Graveman trade had a negative impact on the club’s spirits, something Dipoto addressed in the link above.

Perhaps trading Hernández would hurt the club both on the field and in the dugout. The Mariners likely wouldn’t care so much about that if they were well out of contention and firmly in the seller camp. But if they are trying to strike a balance between buying and selling, the downside of the trade is higher than the upside, though that would surely depend on the offers. The Hader trade certainly hurt the Brewers last year but they were later able to trade one of the pieces in that deal, Esteury Ruiz, for catcher William Contreras. He’s having an excellent season and seems to be a long-term piece for Milwaukee, who are in first place in the National League Central.

We’ll open this one up for debate among MLBTR readers. Should the Mariners risk punting their season by sending Hernández elsewhere and taking whatever pieces they can get to help them in future seasons? Or, should they hold and hope for a late surge to get back in the race and cement his status as a QO recipient? Have your say in the poll below!

(Link to poll for app users)

Should the Mariners trade Teoscar Hernández?
Yes 65.59% (4,456 votes)
No 27.02% (1,836 votes)
I don't know 7.39% (502 votes)
Total Votes: 6,794

AL West Notes: Mariners, Rendon, Neto, Alvarez

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The Mariners placed outfielder AJ Pollock on the 10-day IL earlier today, with outfielder Taylor Trammell taking his place on the active roster. While Pollock has struggled to a wRC+ of just 51 in 138 plate appearances with Seattle this season, Pollock’s injury further exacerbates an outfield situation that has quickly become a problem for the club. Julio Rodriguez and Teoscar Hernandez are both locked into starting spots in center and right field, respectively, but the absences of Pollock and Jarred Kelenic leave the club scrambling for options to fill out the rest of the club’s outfield mix. First baseman Mike Ford has taken over DH duties on a nearly full-time basis over the past month, while left field is set to be filled by a mix of depth options like Trammell, Dylan Moore, and Cade Marlowe.

To make matters worse for the Mariners, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times relays that, according to manager Scott Servais, Kelenic isn’t expected back until early September. He’ll spend the next 4-6 weeks in a walking boot after kicking a water cooler out of frustration following a ninth-inning strikeout. The incident left Kelenic with a fractured left foot. With so few options available to cover for Kelenic in left field, the Mariners seem poised to look into adding an outfielder ahead of the trade deadline on August 1. The club has previously been connected to Mark Canha of the Mets, though Tommy Pham, Cody Bellinger, and Lane Thomas are other outfielders who could potentially move prior to the deadline.

More from the AL West…

  • Angels third baseman Anthony Rendon recently underwent an MRI that revealed a deep bone bruise in his shin, as noted by Doug Padilla of the Orange County Register. Rendon has been out since the beginning of the month with a shin contusion, though the injury is more serious than initially believed. Manager Phil Nevin explained the situation to reporters (including Padilla), saying that “There’s some significant bleeding inside the bone. This is more significant than we actually thought… We’re going to have to calm him down for a little while.” Nevin didn’t offer a new timetable for return, though MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger indicates that Rendon will be shut down for at least two more weeks.
  • Sticking with the Angels, shortstop Zach Neto was scratched from today’s game against the Pirates due to lower back tightness, per Padilla. Andrew Velazquez replaced Neto in the lineup at shortstop today. Padilla noted that Neto was willing to play through the discomfort, but the Angels decided to act cautiously and rest him. Padilla adds that the club is considering sitting him again for tomorrow’s game in order to give him a three day period to rest in conjunction with Monday’s off-day, though Bollinger adds that the club is hoping the issue is minor enough he’ll be back in the lineup tomorrow, per Nevin. The club’s first round pick in last year’s draft, Neto has impressed by not only advancing to the majors in his first professional season but providing solid production with a 110 wRC+ combined with strong defense at shortstop.
  • Slugger Yordan Alvarez appears to be nearing a return to the Astros, as he has begun a rehab assignment with the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Sugar Land. Alvarez was expected to begin his rehab assignment last week, but did not appear in a game at Triple-A until this past Wednesday. He’s now appeared in three rehab games, and while it’s unclear when he’ll return to the big league club, his upcoming return is sure to boost the club’s lineup. While he’s been limited to just 57 games this season due to injuries, Alvarez has slashed an incredible .277/.388/.589 with a wRC+ of 167. With Alvarez on the shelf, Corey Julks has been the club’s primary DH in recent weeks.

Jerry Dipoto Discusses Mariners’ Deadline Approach

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The Mariners pulled back to .500 this afternoon, blanking the Twins to get to 48-48. They’re still in fourth place in the AL West, 9 1/2 games behind the division-leading Rangers. They’re five games out of the final Wild Card spot pending Houston’s night contest in Oakland.

With the club hovering around average all season, the front office finds itself in a borderline position approaching the August 1 trade deadline. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto suggested the team was taking a flexible approach in a chat with Mike Salk this morning during his weekly appearance on 710 AM ESPN in Seattle.

Dipoto conceded the M’s have “not really separated ourselves in a meaningful way to be aggressive on the buying end.” While he left open the potential for short-term additions, he noted they’ll use the next 11 days to evaluate if it’s “better to make a push for the ’23 season or to better situate ourselves for ’24.”

In any event, it doesn’t seem the Mariners are preparing to play at the top of the rental market. “Last year, we were very aggressive in the trade market for what I would call the big fish and we were able to land Luis Castillo,” Dipoto said. “This year, we’re probably not going to be in that market. We’re going to be more in the margins market, trying to find a way that we can get a little bit better in ’23 and better situate ourselves for ’24.”

It’s possible that could involve moving a shorter-term veteran off the MLB roster in a deal for controllable talent. Asked by Salk whether selling is off the table, Dipoto replied, “No, and it never has been. … We are always one foot in the camp of buyer and one foot in the camp of seller, believing that the best way to approach any trade deadline is with the mindset of ’how do we make the Mariners better?’”

That’s not an uncommon approach for executives whose teams are on the periphery of contention. The Red Sox and Brewers attempted (unsuccessfully) to thread that needle last summer, dealing veterans with dwindling control windows while bringing back more controllable upper level talent. As Dipoto pointed out, the Mariners have found themselves in a similar position — most notably in 2021, when Seattle traded impending free agent reliever Kendall Graveman to the Astros for infielder Abraham Toro while Houston was narrowly ahead of the Mariners in the standings.

While Dipoto’s comments leave open the possibility of parting with veteran players, they’re not about to kick off a rebuild. The baseball operations leader expressed confidence in a core centered around the likes of Julio Rodríguez, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, J.P. Crawford, Bryan Woo and Castillo.

Dipoto attributed the club’s middling performance in large part to a lack of depth, particularly in the lineup. “We’re about an average major league offense by most advanced metrics. We need to find a way to be better than average,” he said. “In order to do that, we can tap into a lot of different avenues. Some of it is going to come from our system; some of it is going to come from outside. It has to, and maybe that starts now.”

It’s hard to argue with that characterization. Seattle entered play Thursday ranked 18th in runs. They’re 25th with a .310 on-base percentage and 24th with a .388 slugging mark, though that’s partially a product of a tough home hitting environment. By measure of wRC+, which accounts for ballpark, the M’s have been one percentage point worse than a league average offense.

Conceding that “we don’t have a next wave of bats at Triple-A ready to come and push us over that edge,” Dipoto suggested that building out the lineup depth will be a priority. He took responsibility for the club’s current struggles in that regard. While Dipoto predictably didn’t single out any players, none of Seattle’s top three offseason acquisitions has performed up to expectations.

Teoscar Hernández is hitting .243/.296/.428 across 399 plate appearances. That’s serviceable but certainly not what the M’s had in mind when they sent reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko to Toronto in November. Hernández had been an impact bat for the Blue Jays from 2020-22, combining for a .283/.333/.519 line.

Kolten Wong and AJ Pollock, on the other hand, haven’t found any success in 2023. The former is hitting .158/.240/.211 in 58 games after an offseason trade that sent Jesse Winker to Milwaukee. He has lost the starting second base job to José Caballero as a result. Pollock is hitting .169/.222/.315 since signing a $7MM free agent contract to add some right-handed pop to the outfield.

Seattle won’t be able to drum up much interest in either of the latter two players. If they seriously consider moving short-term veterans, though, Hernández should still be on the radar for clubs looking for offensive help. The M’s wouldn’t recoup the kind of value they surrendered to get him, of course, but his pre-2023 track record could make him an appealing change-of-scenery target.

Hernández is playing this season on a $14MM arbitration salary. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end. A couple months ago, he looked like a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer. That’s no longer an obvious decision, at least raising the possibility of Seattle getting no compensation if they hold him past the deadline and he departs in free agency.

Seattle’s only other impending free agent is backup catcher Tom Murphy. He’s affordable ($1.625MM arb salary) and mashing at a .275/.330/.539 clip in a limited role. As a rental backup catcher, he wouldn’t bring back a major return, but the M’s shouldn’t have a problem finding a trade partner if they were to put him on the market.

Reliever Paul Sewald could be Seattle’s most appealing realistic trade chip. The righty owns a 3.03 ERA with a massive 37.7% strikeout rate over 38 2/3 innings. He has been excellent in all three of his seasons in the Pacific Northwest.

Sewald is eligible for arbitration for one more year, so the Mariners would hold firm to a huge asking price if they made him available at all. Dealing him would probably be their best chance to get an upper level bat with an extended window of team control, assuming they’re not interested in dealing any of their prized young starting pitching.

Mariners Place Jarred Kelenic On 10-Day IL, Promote Cade Marlowe

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1:00pm: Mariners manager Scott Servais tells reporters that Kelenic’s injury occurred last night after he kicked a water cooler out of frustration following a ninth-inning strikeout (Twitter link via Adam Jude of the Seattle Times).

An emotional Kelenic met with reporters and expressed remorse (video link via Divish). “I let the emotions get the best of me,” said Kelenic. “I just feel terrible — especially for the guys. I just let them down, and I take full responsibility for it. It’s on me. It can’t happen.”

12:33pm: The Mariners announced that Kelenic has been placed on the 10-day IL due to a fracture in his left foot. A timeline for his return was not provided.

12:28pm: The Mariners are planning to recall outfield prospect Cade Marlowe prior to today’s game, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. The 26-year-old will be making his MLB debut when he first takes the field. The team has not yet announced Marlowe’s promotion or a corresponding transaction, but Divish adds that Jarred Kelenic is wearing a walking boot pregame, so it seems likely there’s a pending trip to the injured list on the horizon.

Marlowe, a 20th-round pick in 2019, has elevated his stock from that humble draft status with consistently solid minor league showings — including a combined .287/.377/.487 slash between Double-A and Triple-A last year. Baseball America ranked him 16th among Mariners prospects heading into the season, noting that his speed, glove and power could make him at least a reserve outfielder in the Majors — despite questions about his hit tool.

Those concerns on his bat-to-ball skills were on display last year when he fanned in 38% of his 60 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. He’s pared that back to a more tolerable 25.4% in 2023, but Marlowe’s .255/.332/.461 slash in 319 plate appearances also represents a step back from last year’s production (and checks in below average in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, per wRC+). He’s still popped 11 homers this season and gone 25-for-29 in stolen base attempts this season.

Marlowe is already on the 40-man roster, so the Mariners don’t need to make a corresponding move in that regard. With Kelenic sidelined, Marlowe will be in line for plenty of at-bats in left field. Like Kelenic, he’s a left-handed hitter.

Kelenic, 24, got out to a blistering start this season when he hit .308/.366/.615 in the season’s first month. He’s cooled off considerably since that time but still possesses a solid overall .252/.320/.429 batting line with 11 homers, 24 doubles, a pair of triples and a dozen stolen bases through 326 trips to the plate.

Outfield help already seemed like a potential area of focus for the Mariners in advance of the Aug. 1 trade deadline — they were linked to Mets outfielder Mark Canha just this morning — and the loss of Kelenic only figures to add to that. Offseason signee AJ Pollock has delivered just a .169/.222/.325 slash since signing a one-year deal, and trade acquisition Teoscar Hernandez has fallen shy of expectations with a .240/.294/.419 batting line in his first 395 plate appearances.

Mark Canha Drawing Trade Interest

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Other clubs have been calling the Mets about the potential availability of outfielder Mark Canha, per ESPN’s Buster Olney, who lists the Mariners as a “possible match” given Seattle’s prior interest in the 34-year-old as a free agent (Twitter link).

Canha is playing out the second season of a two-year, $26.5MM deal signed in free agency during the 2021-22 offseason. His contract contains an $11.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout — an effective $9.5MM net decision for the Mets or for any team that acquires him.

While Canha isn’t hitting for the same power he has in the past, he’s drawing walks at a robust 10.5% clip and enjoying a generally solid season at the plate. None of his rate stats stand out, but his .244/.346/.396 batting line checks in about 11% better than average, by measure of wRC+. He’s striking out at a lower-than-average 17.3% clip and has also swiped seven bases in seven tries. He rarely chases pitches off the plate and makes contact on those offerings at a well above-average rate when he does (69%, compared to the league-average 62.5%).

In the outfield, Canha is best deployed in a corner, although he’s seen plenty of work in center throughout his career and still possesses above-average speed (65th percentile, per Statcast). Statcast also rates his jumps on fly-balls near the bottom of the league in 2023, however, and his arm strength also checks in a bit below average. Canha also has ample experience at first base, and the Mets have played him there for 87 innings this season.

Canha is earning a $10.5MM salary this season, with about $4.12MM of that sum yet to be paid out as of this writing. Add in the $2MM buyout, and he’s still owed a total of $6.12MM. However, Mets owner Steve Cohen is the game’s most willing spender and could potentially enhance the return on a trade by paying that sum down for a trade partner. The Mets did as much when trading Eduardo Escobar to the Angels and were also willing to eat the remainder of Chris Flexen’s contract in order to effectively purchase righty Trevor Gott from the Mariners.

Speaking of Seattle, the M’s make a sensible enough landing spot — if they choose to add at the deadline. Their offseason addition of veteran outfielder AJ Pollock was intended to add a platoon option in the outfield who could do damage against left-handed pitching, but it’s been an abject flop to date. Pollock is hitting .169/.222/.315 and has actually hit lefties worse than righties.

Canha isn’t a pure lefty masher — his career platoon splits are closer to even — but he’s been solid against southpaws in 2023. Granted, his .228 average when holding the platoon advantage is sub-par, but he’s getting on base at a strong .347 clip and slugging .418 when facing a lefty. That’s been par for the course in his career; he’s a lifetime .236/.327/.425 hitter against southpaws.

The Mets have arguably been the most disappointing team in MLB this season, sitting five games under .500 — 16.5 back in the division and seven back in the Wild Card race — despite an MLB-record payroll in excess of $300MM. Cohen said late last month, when his Mets were 36-43, that he “wouldn’t add” to the roster if his team was in a similar position at the deadline, calling it “silly” to do so.

New York is 9-7 in that time, including three straight wins, but they’ll likely need to rattle off a few more wins before even giving legitimate consideration to adding pieces at the deadline. In the meantime, short-term assets like Canha, Tommy Pham, David Robertson and Adam Ottavino will likely continue to be the focus of potential trade inquiries.

Mariners Promote Prelander Berroa, Devin Sweet

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The Mariners announced a few roster moves prior to tonight’s game, selecting the contract of right-hander Devin Sweet and recalling fellow righty Prelander Berroa, with both players set to make their respective major league debuts as soon as they get into a game. In corresponding moves, right-handers Ty Adcock and Isaiah Campbell were optioned to Double-A Arkansas. The club already had a 40-man vacancy and won’t need to make a corresponding move in that regard.

Berroa, 23, came over the Mariners last year in a trade that sent Donovan Walton to the Giants. Berroa finished last year with a combined 2.86 earned run average across those two systems and different minor league levels, tossing 100 2/3 innings. The M’s liked him enough to give him a 40-man roster spot in November in order to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.

He started this year in the Double-A rotation but had a 5.16 ERA through his first five starts. He was moved to the bullpen at that point in a move that seems to have worked out quite well. He’s thrown 23 1/3 innings over 19 appearances since taking on a relief role, posting a 0.77 ERA in that time. His 13.5% walk rate is certainly on the high side but he’s limiting damage by striking out 39.3% of batters faced. He won’t be able to sustain a .238 batting average on balls in play or 90.9% strand rate but the results are nonetheless encouraging enough to earn him a big league look. He’s currently considered the club’s #10 prospect at Baseball America and #11 at FanGraphs.

Sweet, 26, cracks a 40-man roster for the first time in his career. An undrafted free agent who signed with the Mariners in 2018, he’s been climbing the minor league ladder since then. He’s spent all of this year in Double-A, posting a 1.54 ERA in 35 innings over 27 appearances. He’s struck out 34.6% of opponents while walking just 5.9%. He’s ranked the club’s #26 prospect by BA and #29 at FanGraphs.

The Mariners suffered a rough 10-3 loss at the hands of the Twins last night, with Bryan Woo allowing six earned runs and getting bounced in the fourth inning. Each of Adcock, Campbell and Tayler Saucedo tossed 29 pitches or more, while many of the high-leverage hurlers appeared in close games on both Monday and Sunday. With a fairly taxed relief corps, these moves give the club an injection of fresh arms.

Notable Draft Signings: 7/17/23

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The Rangers, Rockies, Tigers, A’s and Orioles all agreed to $4MM+ bonuses with their first round draftees this afternoon. We’ll round up the other $2MM+ signings from Monday (scouting reports from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN and The Athletic):

  • The Giants are signing 16th overall pick Bryce Eldridge to a $3.9975MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (Twitter links). That’s a bit below the selection’s $4.33MM slot value. Eldridge, a two-way player from a Virginia high school, ranked between 16th and 23rd on the referenced pre-draft lists. Listed at 6’7″, he’s generally regarded as a more talented power-hitting first base/corner outfield prospect than as a pitcher, though evaluators suggest he could’ve been a top-two round selection were he solely on the mound. He’s expected to try playing both ways to begin his professional career. The lefty hitter/righty thrower had been committed to Alabama. San Francisco also signed 52nd pick Walker Martin for an overslot $2.9975MM bonus. An Arkansas commit, Martin is a power-hitting infielder from a Colorado high school.
  • The Yankees announced they’ve signed first rounder George Lombard Jr. According to Callis, the Florida high schooler receives a $3.3MM bonus that beats the $3.07MM slot value of the 26th selection (Twitter link). A right-handed hitting infielder and son of the former major leaguer who currently serves as Tigers’ bench coach, Lombard Jr. had been committed to Vanderbilt. Listed at 6’3″, he’s viewed as a well-rounded and instinctual player who could hit for average and power. Evaluators generally had him as a back of the first-round prospect with some question about whether he’ll outgrow shortstop.
  • The Mariners are in agreement with 29th pick Johnny Farmelo on a $3.2MM bonus, reports Daniel Kramer of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s the selection Seattle received under the Prospect Promotion Incentive after Julio Rodríguez won the 2022 Rookie of the Year. Farmelo, a left-handed hitting outfielder out of a Virginia high school, tops the $2.8MM slot value of the selection. Generally regarded as a comp round or early second round talent, he’s a plus runner who could play center field and has some power projection in a 6’2″ frame. Farmelo was a Virginia commit.
  • The Brewers are signing 18th pick Brock Wilken for $3.15MM, Callis reports (on Twitter). That’s quite a bit below the $4.02MM slot value for the college infielder. Wilken, a Wake Forest product, is one of the better offensive prospects in the college class. Evaluators suggest he’s a power over contact player but could be a middle-of-the-order presence. They’re divided on whether the 6’4″ infielder will be athletic enough to stick at the hot corner or should move to first base down the line. The right-handed hitter put up a monster .345/.506/.807 showing during his draft year in Winston-Salem. Milwaukee also signed 33rd pick Josh Knoth for $2MM, per Callis (on Twitter). A high school righty from New York, Knoth is credited with mid-90s velocity and two impressive breaking pitches.
  • The Blue Jays agreed to a $3MM bonus with first round pick Arjun Nimmala, according to Callis (Twitter link). That’s below the $3.75MM slot value of the 20th selection. Nimmala, a high school infielder out of Florida, placed in the top 17 on each of the aforementioned rankings. The 6’1″ infielder is credited with plus power projection and a good chance to stick at shortstop. An aggressive approach and elevated swing-and-miss are the primary questions in his profile, though he’s one of the youngest players in the class and regarded as a strong upside play. Nimmala had been committed to Florida State.
  • The A’s went well above slot for third-rounder Steven Echavarria, Callis reports (Twitter links). He lands $3MM, almost $2MM north of the slot value for the 73rd pick. A high school right-hander from New Jersey, he’d been committed to Florida. He has a mid-90s fastball and potential plus curveball. Oakland also signed 39th selection Myles Naylor for the $2.025MM slot value. The Canadian infielder (younger brother of the Guardians’ Naylor brothers) is a bat-first third baseman who’d been slated to attend Texas Tech.
  • The Nationals handed out a pair of $2.6MM bonuses, per reports from Callis and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (Twitter links). Miami infielder Yohandy Morales went 40th overall after hitting .408/.475/.713 during his final season in the ACC. He’s a power-hitting third baseman. High school righty Travis Sykora gets a well above slot bonus as a third round draftee. A Texas commit, Sykora is a 6’6″ hurler who can get into the triple digits and was regarded as a possible top 40 talent in the class.
  • Infielder Sammy Stafura signed for $2.4975MM with the Reds, reports Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer (on Twitter). That’s above slot for the New York high school infielder, a Clemson commit. Stafura was viewed as a potential first-round talent based on his athleticism and bat speed.

Notable Draft Signings: 7/14/23

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The Cubs and Reds agreed to terms with top 15 picks this afternoon. A few other top 40 selections are also set to put pen to paper.

(See pre-draft rankings from Baseball America, Keith Law of the Athletic, MLB Pipeline):

  • The Mariners have agreed to terms with all but two draft choices, reports Daniel Kramer of MLB.com. 29th overall selection Johnny Farmelo and 20th-rounder Will Watson are the only players who haven’t agreed to terms. First round pick Colt Emerson will receive a $3.8MM bonus, per Kramer. That’s above the $3.5MM slot value for the 22nd overall pick. A hit-first prep infielder out of Ohio, Emerson had been committed to Auburn. Seattle will sign 30th overall pick Tai Peete for $2.5MM, Kramer reports. That’s a little below the $2.73MM slot value. Peete is a 6’2″ infielder from a Georgia high school who draws praise for his power potential and athleticism but some hit tool questions. He’ll bypass a commitment to Georgia Tech.
  • The Mets are in agreement on a $2.75MM bonus with 32nd overall draftee Colin Houck, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). New York went a bit above the $2.61MM slot value to sign the Georgia high schooler out of a commitment to Mississippi State. Houck, a right-handed hitting infielder, ranked between 10th and 21st on the referenced pre-draft rankings. There are questions about whether he’ll outgrow shortstop and eventually kick over to third base, but he’s viewed as a well-rounded offensive player with power projection and the ability to stick somewhere on the infield dirt.

Mariners Sign Logan Allen To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners signed left-hander Logan Allen to a minor league contract this evening, according to an announcement from Triple-A broadcaster Mike Curto (on Twitter). He’ll join the M’s top affiliate in Tacoma.

Allen, 26, is a former Guardians southpaw who is not related to a current Cleveland pitcher of the same name. Seattle’s Allen has pitched in parts of four MLB campaigns, mostly with Cleveland. He has a 5.89 ERA through 96 1/3 MLB frames. He has a below-average 15.5% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk percentage in that stretch.

The 6’3″ hurler was a fairly well-regarded prospect coming through the minor league ranks. He had strong numbers up through Double-A, including a 2.75 ERA at that level. Allen has yet to find much success beyond that point, allowing 6.35 earned runs per nine in parts of five Triple-A campaigns.

That includes a 7.20 ERA through 45 innings with the Rockies’ top affiliate earlier in the season. Allen signed a minor league deal with Colorado last August but had a rough time in an extremely hitter-friendly setting in Albuquerque. He was released two weeks ago.

Seattle has George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo and Bryan Woo in the rotation. Bryce Miller is on the injured list with a blister but expected to rejoin the rotation on Sunday. Allen isn’t going to crack that group if everyone’s healthy, but he’ll add an experienced upper minors depth option.

Cardinals Interested In Logan Gilbert

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The Cardinals are coming out of the All-Star break with a 38-52 record, placing them in last place in the National League Central and 11 games back in the Wild Card race. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently admitted that the club will have to approach the deadline as sellers, focusing on making moves that benefit the 2024 club.

The club has just over two weeks until the August 1 deadline, giving them some time to figure out their plans, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has a report with some specifics that shine a light on their current plans. Notably, the Cards are uninterested in trading core players like Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker. They are open, however, to trading pitchers like Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Ryan Helsley and Génesis Cabrera, while Jack Flaherty is already generating interest from other clubs. As for what kind of player they are looking to bring in, Goold lists Logan Gilbert of the Mariners as someone they are interested in.

To be clear, there’s no indication that the Mariners have any inclination towards trading Gilbert, but it’s entirely understandable why the Cards would be interested. The 26-year-old Gilbert has made 74 starts to this point in his career, posting a 3.75 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 36.9% ground ball rate. He’s right in line with those figures this year, having a 3.66 ERA with similar peripherals in 18 starts.

More importantly for the Cardinals, Gilbert can be immediately plugged into their rotation and has plenty of club control remaining. He came into this season with one year and 144 days of service time and will finish this season at 2.144. That makes him a virtual lock to qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player this winter, but he will still have four years of club control left, meaning he isn’t slated to become a free agent until after the 2027 season.

The Cards are not planning a deep rebuild but are instead focused on next year’s club, when they have plenty of rotation uncertainty. Adam Wainwright is planning to retire after this year, while both Flaherty and Montgomery are impending free agents. They have also seen some internal options struggle this year. Steven Matz had an ERA of 5.72 through 10 starts before getting bumped to the bullpen, though he recently retook a rotation job after some solid relief work. Matthew Liberatore has decent numbers in Triple-A but a 6.75 ERA in the majors this year. Dakota Hudson has spent most of the year in Triple-A, posting an ERA of 6.00 at that level. All of that leaves Miles Mikolas as the only sure thing for next year’s rotation.

But Seattle wouldn’t give up Gilbert easily. The club is 45-44 right now and just four games out in the American League Wild Card race. Gilbert is a key part of their rotation right now and for future seasons, given his aforementioned years of control. If they were to give any thought to moving him, they would likely have to get back something that helps some other part of their roster in the here and now. They also have Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Bryan Woo in their rotation alongside Gilbert, but Robbie Ray is out of the season while Bryce Miller and Marco Gonzales are currently on the injured list. Subtracting Gilbert from that mix would to be weighed against the benefits of an upgrade elsewhere.

The Mariners have tried to do a buy-sell hybrid before, which was in 2021. They flipped relievers Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero to the Astros in exchange for Joe Smith and Abraham Toro, while picking up Diego Castillo and Tyler Anderson in separate deals. The move didn’t work out, with the clubhouse apparently not thrilled by the closer suddenly pitching for a divisional rival and the M’s ultimately missing the playoffs.

This year’s trade deadline is generally considered to have a lack of sellers that may force clubs to consider trades between contenders, with each club giving up current major league talent, such as last year’s deal where the Cards got Montgomery from the Yankees for Harrison Bader. A Gilbert trade would be a significantly different beast though, since Montgomery and Bader each had just a season and a half of club control remaining at the time. When factoring in Gilbert’s extra control and the fact that the M’s just got burned on the hybrid deadline strategy not too long ago, it’s hard to view a trade coming together as a likely scenario.

Nonetheless, the interest from the Cardinals is instructive as to what their targets might be. They have a crowded position player mix and may perhaps look to swap someone from that group for some controllable pitching, even if it’s not Gilbert. It remains to be seen which players they are willing to put on the table in such a pursuit, but it seems they’ll hang onto Arenado, Goldschmidt, Nootbaar and Walker.

It’s not a terrible shock to see those names listed as off-limits. Goldschmidt and Arenado are the two most important players on the club, finishing first and third respectively in National League MVP voting last year. Both players also have full no-trade clauses, which would make a deal complicated even if the Cardinals wanted to consider it. The players could always waive their clauses but Goold reports that Arenado has not been approached about doing so and would prefer to stay anyway. There’s been no reporting to suggest that anything is different with Goldschmidt.

Walker was one of the top prospects in the league coming into this year and is faring well in his first season, hitting .283/.347/.457 for a 123 wRC+ thus far. He made the club’s Opening Day roster but was optioned for over a month at one point, meaning he’ll come up shy of one year of major league service here in 2023 and leave the Cards with six further seasons of control. As a consensus top prospect, he could earn that full year by finishing in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, but he would still be a key part of the club’s future even in that scenario.

Nootbaar, meanwhile, has hit .241/.343/.420 in 226 career games while providing above-average outfield defense. He will still have four years of control remaining after this one and isn’t slated to qualify for arbitration until after 2024.

Just because those names are listed as unavailable, it doesn’t necessarily mean that anyone not named is therefore available, but the club will likely have to move someone. Tyler O’Neill has often been speculated as a candidate since the club has Nootbaar, Walker, Dylan Carlson and others in the outfield mix. On the infield, meanwhile, Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan have somewhat similar multi-positional profiles and have been pushed to the grass with Paul DeJong and Nolan Gorman often in the middle infield. If the Cards have their sights set on an impact rotation addition like Gilbert or someone similar, they might have to make the difficult decision of parting with someone in that group.

Though that situation seems fluid and has many factors, the rental pitching seems much more straightforward. Each of Montgomery, Flaherty and Hicks are impending free agents and seem virtual locks to be moved at this point. Montgomery is a consistent mid-rotation guy, with a 3.75 career ERA and a 3.23 mark here in 2023. He’s making $10MM this year, which will leave about $3.22MM left to be paid out at the deadline.

Flaherty has shown ace upside in the past but was held back by injuries in recent years. He’s not back to those ace levels this year, currently sporting a 4.27 ERA, but he’s at least healthy and effective enough for a rotation job. Hicks, meanwhile, has triple-digit velocity and seems to be finally figuring out how to weaponize it properly.

Helsley and Cabrera aren’t strict rentals and don’t need to be moved at this deadline, necessarily. But given the volatility of relief performance, it’s logical for the Cardinals to consider what kind of return they can get right now. Helsley seemed to take over the closer’s role last year, posting a 1.25 ERA and racking up 19 saves in the process. He has a 3.24 ERA this year but has been on the injured list for the past month due to a strained right forearm. Players on the IL can be traded but his health status might cast a shadow over trade talks. He can be controlled for two more seasons after this one via arbitration. He’s making $2.15MM and will have about $700K left to be paid out when the deadline rolls around.

Cabrera, 26, has been inconsistent in terms of his strikeouts but has always had subpar control. Regardless, left-handed relief tends to always be in demand to some degree. He has a 4.07 ERA in his career but a 4.70 mark this year. He’s struck out 25.7% of opponents this season but walked 13.2%. Like Helsley, he can be retained via arbitration for two more campaigns after this one. He’s making $950K this year, which will leave just over $300K at deadline time.

All in all, there are many moving parts for the Cardinals to consider, making them one of the most interesting clubs to watch in the coming weeks. They haven’t been in the clear seller position in a while, but they seem well-positioned to take advantage of it. Few clubs are in the same category and many of the other clear sellers have far less to offer in terms of players that would be of interest for contending clubs.

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