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NL Central Notes: Choate, Wainwright, Guerrero, Taillon

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As the Cardinals battle to represent the National League Central in the World Series, let's have a look at St. Louis and the two other post-season qualifying members of the division.

  • Left-handed reliever Randy Choate had his pick of the Cardinals and the Dodgers over this past off-season, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. His manager, Mike Matheny, credits him not only for his performance on the hill but for mentoring the many excellent young arms that have cycled through the team's bullpen this year.
  • Starting for the Cards this evening was Adam Wainwright, who has been as important as any player to the team's recent successes. As MLB.com's Steve Gilbert writes, the deal that brought him to St. Louis about a decade ago could not have turned out any better for team or player.
  • Walt Jocketty, the GM who pulled the trigger on that trade, is currently at the helm of the rival Reds. Jocketty tells John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he is unlikely to bring aboard Cuban middle infielder Alexander Guerrero, who the club was rumored to be in on. "We scouted him extensively and had a lot of discussions," said Jocketty. "But I don't believe anything will happen."
  • Top Pirates prospect Jameson Taillon has been shut down after suffering a groin injury in his first outing in the Arizona Fall League, reports Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The injury itself doesn't seem to be significant, however, and it seems unlikely to have a significant impact on the club's plans for 2014. With Taillon now unable to add additional innings to his arm, he will have a base of less than 150 to work from next season. Of course, that is about the level that Gerrit Cole had to build off of this year. Taillon also will miss the chance to develop against AFL talent, but he has already advanced to the upper minors and should get more time there to start the season.

Cardinals Notes: Beltran, Wacha

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The Cardinals have leapt out to a 2-0 lead over the Dodgers in the NLCS thanks to a pair of strong pitching performances from Michael Wacha and Joe Kelly as well as some more postseason magic from Carlos Beltran. Here's more on Beltran and Wacha for your Sunday morning reading…

  • General manager John Mozeliak isn't closing any doors when it comes to a Beltran return, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Goold quotes Mozeliak: "Ruling nothing out at this point. He’s an amazing teammate, been an amazing player for us. Once we get to the offseason we’ll address it." Mozeliak added that Beltran's mentoring of younger players in the clubhouse and his presence in the community will "absolutely" factor into the decision. The Cardinals could make Beltran a one-year offer to Beltran, which we learned will be worth $14.1MM on Friday.
  • MLB.com's Steve Gilbert writes that Wacha's dominance comes as no surprise to his teammates, who have been impressed with him since Spring Training. "The ceiling is as high as he wants to go," said longtime Cards' ace Chris Carpenter. Gilbert offers another reminder that Wacha was selected with the compensatory draft pick that the Cardinals received when Albert Pujols signed with the Angels.

Quick Hits: Cubs, Piniella, Orioles, Beltran, Scherzer

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Cubs prospect Albert Almora declared 12 years ago his intention to become a major league star, Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune writes. "I'm a quiet kid, just go out and do what I have to do. I like to just shut up and not say anything, let my game do the talking. It has worked so far," Almora says. The Cubs took the outfielder sixth overall in last year's draft, and though Almora missed time this year with injuries, he's six for 10 with five runs and six RBIs in two Arizona Fall League games. On to more Saturday night links…

  • Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune spoke with former Stanford assistant coach Dean Stotz about A.J. Hinch, whom the Cubs are reportedly considering for their open manager position. While Hinch struggled during his previous tenure as manager of the Diamondbacks, Stotz, who coached Hinch in college at Stanford, praised his scouting and player development acumen and predicted that the next team that hires him "will be pleased."
  • The Mariners' purported interest in Lou Piniella for their manager vacancy was overblown, Ryan Divish of The News Tribune reports. A team source tells Divish that there was no "full-court press" to bring Piniella back.
  • Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun has more on Manny Machado's upcoming knee surgery, reporting that the Orioles initially hoped to rehab the tear to the third baseman's medial patellofemoral ligament but decided that doing so could result in a higher chance of an injury in the future. “The surgery is universally very successful in returning players back to play, including baseball players," Daryl Osbahr, the director of sports medicine research at MedStar Union Memorial Hospital, commented.
  • The time may be right for Cal Ripken Jr. to accept a managing job outside of Baltimore, Peter Schmuck of The Baltimore Sun writes. Buck Showalter has a long-term deal in place as the Orioles' manager, providing cover from fan backlash for both the team and Ripken if the O's legend decides to manage another club. Ripken has been connected to the Nationals in recent days.
  • Mutual need for outfield production may lead to a bidding war between the Mets and the Phillies for Carlos Beltran, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News says. The Mets have money to spend and will look to improve upon an outfield that posted the worst OPS in the NL, while the Phillies may target Beltran, a switch hitter, for their lefty-heavy lineup, Murphy says.
  • Cardinals President Bill DeWitt III discussed his team's success and the support it receives from St. Louis in an interview with MLB.com
  • The Tigers may have to decide between keeping Max Scherzer for one more year or signing Miguel Cabrera to a new extension, according to Jeff Seidel of the Detroit Free Press. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected that Scherzer will make $13.6MM this offseason in his final year of arbitration. Recent reports suggest that the Tigers will consider trading Scherzer in the offseason.

NL Central Notes: Beltran, Cubs, O’Neill, Riggleman

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The NLCS is a matchup between different organizational strengths and philosophies, says Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch: the aggressive spending of the Dodgers versus the eagle-eye drafting and development of the Cardinals. That series kicked off last night in spectacular fashion, with the Cards achieving an extra-inning victory due in large part to the efforts of Carlos Beltran — himself a free agent acquisition, not a homegrown talent. Of course, the club held the Dodgers offense at bay with impressive bullpen efforts from several players that came up through the St. Louis system. Elsewhere in the NL Central: 

  • Look for the Cubs' managerial search to pick up pace shortly, says Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. With the Chicago brain trust wrapping up a tour of the club's top prospects, they will begin looking more carefully at potential targets like A.J. Hinch, Manny Acta, and Rick Renteria.
  • Meanwhile, team chairman Tom Ricketts penned a letter to the team's season ticket holders, as MLB.com's Carrie Muskat reports. Calling last year a "challenging" season and expressing that the decision to can manager Dale Sveum was a hard one, he emphasized that the team's spending on young talent and commitment to player development has created a bright future. 
  • The Reds, likewise, have a managerial search to conduct, and former Cinci ballplayer Paul O'Neill has thrown his name in the hat, he confirmed yesterday on the Dan Patrick Show. CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman finds him to be an interesting option for the Redlegs.
  • Perhaps a likelier candidate is well-travelled former big league skipper Jim Riggleman, with Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com reporting (via Twitter) that many in the industry think that the current Louisville Bats manager could get a call-up. On the other hand, tweets John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, it could be hard to sell a Riggleman hiring to fans. In twelve years in charge, he has mustered just one 90-win campaign, Fay notes. And, of course, he left his last job with the Nationals in mid-season on controversial terms.

Minor Moves: Victor Marte

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Today's minor moves roundup…

  • The Cardinals have outrighted right-hander Victor Marte to Triple-A after he cleared waivers, according to MLBDailyDish's Chris Cotillo (Twitter link). Marte was designated for assignment last week after the Cards claimed Joey Butler off waivers from the Rangers. The 32-year-old Marte posted a 4.98 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 43 1/3 relief innings with the Cards from 2012-13. Those numbers are similar to the 4.94 ERA, 9.1 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 he posted in 54 2/3 innings at Triple-A this season.
  • Earlier today, the Cubs outrighted six players, including outfielder Darnell McDonald and right-hander Rafael Dolis, who briefly served as the Cubs' closer in 2012.
  • With Marte's outright, Henry Blanco of the Mariners and Jeff Baker of the Rangers are the only players currently in DFA limbo, as shown in MLBTR's DFA Tracker.

NL Central Notes: Hurdle, Pirates, Parra, Reds

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Veteran Justin Morneau was in Minnesota for his entire career before the summer trade that shipped him to the Pirates, but the adjustment wasn't too difficult for him thanks to a familiar element, writes Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun.  “[Manager Clint Hurdle] speaks the same language as Ron Gardenhire,” said Morneau. “He’ll come up and say ‘[I'm] going to give you a blow tomorrow.’ I know I’m getting the day off. Gardenhire used to say it.”  Elliott spoke with several Pirates players about their respect for Hurdle and their appreciation for him as a motivator. Here's a look at more from the NL Central..

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Free Agent Profile: Edward Mujica

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Edward Mujica entered the season as a solid middle reliever/setup man but quickly found himself thrust into the closer's role after Jason Motte went down with Tommy John surgery and Mitchell Boggs collapsed as Motte's successor. Many felt the ninth inning should go to flamethrowing 22-year-old Trevor Rosenthal, but Mujica silenced critics for much of the season by thriving in the role and upping his free agent stock accordingly.

Strengths/Pros

Few things in baseball are more frustrating than watching a relief pitcher come in and issue multiple walks; that's something Mujica's managers, teammates and fans virtually never have to worry about. Mujica-Edward Over the past four seasons, Mujica has allowed 37 walks in 275 2/3 innings (1.21 BB/9), but nine of those were intentional. Mujica will put a batter aboard via an unintentional free pass about once every 10 innings. As such, he has a pristine 1.001 WHIP dating back to 2010. The only "free agent" reliever who really comes close to matching Mujica in control is Mariano Rivera, and he won't be signing anywhere this winter.

Over that same four-year stretch, Mujica has a 47.2 percent ground-ball rate, and opponents are batting just .230 against him. Put simply, Mujica does a better job at keeping hitters off the basepaths than most relievers in the game.

Mujica earned just $3.2MM this season, so a qualifying offer would be a tremendous increase in his salary and is therefore highly unlikely. He won't come tied to draft pick compensation, and at age 29, he's one of the youngest free agent relievers on the market. He's also highly durable, having just one DL stint throughout his big league career; that injury was the result of a broken toe suffered when he was struck by a batted ball.

Weaknesses/Cons

The average big league reliever has averaged about eight strikeouts per nine innings over the past four seasons. Mujica has, in turn, whiffed 7.4 hitters per nine innings over that four-year stretch and has dropped to 6.4 strikeouts per nine frames in 2013 (while the MLB average for relievers has risen to 8.3). His low punchout total is a bit curious given his well above-average swinging strike rate (12.5 percent in 2013 and 11 percent for his career).

Advanced metrics like FIP (3.71), xFIP (3.53) and SIERA (3.25) don't necessarily back up Mujica's 2.78 ERA. His .263 BABIP is unusually low, although it's fair to wonder if it's actually a sustainable mark; he's had a BABIP south of .270 in each of the past four seasons. If that's the case, then it's likely that sabermetric stats undervalue him, as they measure him against the league average rather than his own career norms.

Perhaps the biggest knock on Mujica is his poor finish to the season. He carried a 1.73 ERA into September but crumbled in the season's final month, allowing nine runs on 18 hits and a pair of walks over his final 7 1/3 innings. That prolonged meltdown knocked him out of the team's closer spot will likely be brought up in contract discussions this offseason.

Personal

Mujica and his wife, Erika, reside in Yagua, Venezuela, per the Cardinals's media guide. The couple welcomed their first child, Brianna, into the world in July 2012. Mujica is often described as fun-loving, doing things like making custom t-shirts for his teammates with the Marlins to keep the clubhouse light (per MLB.com's Joe Frisaro).

Market

Many teams will be on the lookout for bullpen help this winter, and Mujica is one of the handful of available relievers that will come with ninth inning experience. While many maintain that ninth inning experience isn't a prerequisite for closers ("closers are made, not born"), Mujica's agent, Wil Polidor of Octagon, can boast that his client racked up 37 saves in his first season as a closer and should be compensated for that big number.

Teams don't pay for saves quite as much as they did a few years ago, but there are still old-school general managers and front offices that want to hand the ball to a guy who's "been there before" in the ninth inning. The Tigers, Rangers, Rays, Yankees, A's and Cubs will all lose their closers to free agency or retirement this winter. Other teams like the Mariners, Brewers, Diamondbacks and Indians have seen great uncertainty in their late-inning situations this season. The Cardinals could also express interest in retaining Mujica, though with Motte on the mend and Rosenthal pitching well of late, he may not have an opportunity to regain the closer role in St. Louis.

Of course, there will also be plenty of teams with closers in place who will look to Mujica as a reliable, durable setup man.

Expected Contract

Mujica is the same age that Brandon League was when he signed his three-year, $22.5MM contract with the Dodgers last offseason. While that's proven to be an overpay, that didn't deter the Reds from giving another under-30 reliever, Jonathan Broxton, a similar three-year, $21MM contract a few months later. Neither of those relievers boasted lofty strikeout rates in their walk seasons, and I imagine that will be Polidor's target for Mujica, while the three-year, $16.5MM deal that Joaquin Benoit signed prior to the 2011 season will be the floor.

Back in May, I looked at Mujica's free agent stock and noted that a strong season in the ninth inning couls land him a deal similar to Broxton's. Despite his slide at the end of the season, I believe that a three-year, $21MM deal remains a reasonable expectation given his youth, durability, elite command and strong track record.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL Central Notes: Reds, Cubs, Beltran, Pirates

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Reds assistant director of media relations Jamie Ramsey provided fans with a feel-good story today, as longtime Reds staffer Chris Herrell returned to work after undergoing a bone marrow transplant 10 months ago to treat a rare form of blood cancer. The Reds' front office welcomed Herrell back with a surprise celebration this morning, writes Ramsey. Best wishes to Chris, his family and friends as he continues his recovery! Here's more out of the NL Central…

  • Sources confirmed to David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com that former Indians and Nationals manager Manny Acta is in Chicago today to meet with Cubs president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer. “The Cubs have a fairly long list of potential candidates and they have to handle it that way if the Girardi thing doesn’t happen,” said one scout. Other candidates include A.J. Hinch and Rick Renteria.
  • Cardinals outfielder Carlos Beltran will be in high demand this winter, writes Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req'd). Olney feels that the Mets, Rangers, Yankees, Orioles, Phillies, and Reds could all be players for Beltran. At 36, Beltran may prefer to go to an American League club and DH.
  • Pirates GM Neal Huntington deserves praise for his aggressive approach on the trade market, writes Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Miklasz notes that, in comparison, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak chose to stand pat, and it could be a difference-maker now that the two are squaring off in the NLDS. He adds that there's no way, however, that Mozeliak could have foreseen Allen Craig's injury, which forced Matt Adams into a starting role and depleted the team's bench depth.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

Cafardo On Arroyo, Kendrick, Braun, Cano

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Timing is everything in baseball and Joe Girardi is hitting the open market at the perfect time, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes.  The Cubs always saw landing Girardi as a longshot, but they'll give it another go this winter.  From the Yankees perspective, they'd be foolish not to lock Girardi up with a lucrative new deal, in Cafardo's opinion.  Few managers, he argues, could have survived the injuries that the Yankees were dealing with and kept them in the playoff chase in September.  If Girardi bails for Chicago or elsewhere, Cafardo suggests Don Mattingly as a candidate.  Of course, the Dodgers would have to fire him or work out a trade for that to happen.  Here's more from today's column..

  • Bronson Arroyo says he wants a three-year deal and he feels his time in Cincinnati is likely over. “I have no preference on where I want to pitch but I’ll certainly consider the team, their chances of winning, and all of that,” he said. “I feel I can pitch effectively at 37, 38, and 39 years old. I’ve never missed a start. Never been injured. I’m not a max-effort guy out there, so there’s no big-time wear and tear on me. I loved Cincinnati but I don’t think they’re in position to give me what I want.” Cafardo suggests the Blue Jays, Orioles, Brewers, Cubs, Giants, Pirates, Cardinals, and Dodgers as possibilities.
  • It's looking increasingly likely that Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick will be traded for pitching or prospects. The Royals need second base help and would have interest.  The Orioles may also be interested if they cut ties with Brian Roberts this winter.  The O's haven't decided what to do with Roberts just yet but they wouldn't go beyond a one-year deal to keep him. 
  • It has been suggested that the Brewers could trade Ryan Braun, but finding someone willing to take on his baggage and lucrative deal could be tricky.  “I don’t think he’s going anywhere. Someone would have to take a big chance and nobody’s doing that on PED guys, especially for that length of contract,” said one exec.
  • Bench coach Tony Pena is not likely to replace Girardi as manager if he goes elsewhere. “I don’t think anyone in our front office is even thinking about that,” said one Yankees official.
  • Many believe that the Dodgers won't be serious players for Robinson Cano, but things can change with an early exit from the playoffs.

Cardinals Designate Victor Marte For Assignment

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The Cardinals have designated right-hander Victor Marte for assignment, Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish reports.  Marte was moved to create 40-man roster space for Joey Butler, who the Cards claimed off waivers from the Rangers earlier today.

Marte, 32, pitched just three innings for St. Louis this season and has a 4.98 ERA, 2.24 K/BB and 7.9 K/9 over 43 1/3 relief innings in 2012-13.  Marte is one of three players currently in DFA limbo, along with the Padres' Chris Robinson and the Indians' Clay Rapada.  You can keep track of all players designated for assignment on MLBTR's DFA Tracker.

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