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Starlin Castro Suffers Broken Wrist

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AUG. 18: Manager Dave Martinez announced Castro will undergo surgery this Friday, Todd Dybas of NBCSW was among those to report. Castro’s optimistic he’ll return for the playoffs if the Nationals qualify.

AUG. 14: The Nationals announced that second baseman Starlin Castro has suffered a broken right wrist. He has been placed on the 10-day injured list.

That diagnosis comes after Castro departed the team’s contest earlier today. It explains why the Nats suddenly decided to promote top infield prospect Luis Garcia, a move that is now official.

Garcia will debut at twenty nears and ninety days of age. Castro was actually a shade younger when he first hit the majors back in 2010. He has had some ups and downs since but has generally been a solid overall performer.

Castro inked a two-year, $12MM deal over the offseason to join the defending World Series champs. He had been off to a productive start, slashing .283/.317/.467 over 63 plate appearances entering action today.

Precisely how long Castro will be sidelined isn’t yet known, but it’s likely beside the point. At this stage of the calendar, it’s hard to imagine he’ll be able to recover and ramp back up in time to return before the regular season wraps up.

The Mark Grace Decade Award

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For many years, my go-to baseball trivia question was this: who led the 1990s in hits? 

I won’t bury the lede any further: The answer is Mark Grace. Grace never hit 20 home runs in a season despite being a middle-of-the-order bat, and he spent most of his career on lackluster Cubs teams. He was a three-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner who never finished higher than thirteenth in MVP voting. He was a very good baseball player. But I think it’s safe to say that he’s not the first name that comes to mind when looking for the decade-leader in hits. 

Growing up, Grace was my favorite player, but that’s only part of why I loved this trivia question. In my mind, Grace epitomized something special about the game. He played smart and with obvious boyhood joy. He could hit .300 falling asleep, and though he wasn’t known for his power, he held his own – in his words – by “turning triples into doubles” (he also led the nineties in doubles). #17 wasn’t a superstar to the world (he didn’t hit home runs, he didn’t run well, and he played for the lovable loser version of the Cubs), but Grace made the most of his physical abilities and let his personality shine through. And ah yes, he had more hits in the nineties than Tony Gwynn, Robby Alomar, Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Sammy Sosa, Cal Ripken Jr.…or anyone else.

That he accomplished this feat speaks to the randomness and the breadth of the game of baseball. Only a player who played in every season of the decade is likely to lead all major leaguers in hits (see the exception to this rule later). And yet, what a tremendous accomplishment! The juxtaposition of those two thoughts encapsulates so much of what makes baseball unique. Timing is a huge factor in determining what becomes part of the baseball zeitgeist, and yet, there’s an ocean of information beneath the surface of any given statistical achievement. 

Not to date myself, but there’s been two full decades since Grace led the nineties in hits! Granted, hits are no longer the be all and end all of offensive production. Not anywhere close. But they’re still important. Leading the league in hits over a decade is more trivia than player analysis, but it’s still an accomplishment that shines a light on a particular style of hitter. So without further ado, I thought it would be a fun exercise to see who wins the Mark Grace Award for leading a decade in hits.

2010-2019

  1. Robinson Cano (1,695)
  2. Nick Markakis (1,651)
  3. Adam Jones (1,647)
  4. Starlin Castro (1,617)
  5. Miguel Cabrera (1,595)
  6. Elvis Andrus (1,595)

Kicking it off, this is not the list I expected for our most recent decade. Cano taking the title is impressive, if not surprising for the career .302 hitter, because he only appeared in 107 games this last season and only 80 games the year before that. Taking the crown regardless speaks to how difficult it is in this day and age to stay in the game. Kudos to the the rest of the list as well, which provides a real working class crew (Miggy aside). Cano is also, for what it’s worth, the least productive hits king in any decade since the war-torn forties when the Indians’ Lou Boudreau took home the title with 1,578 hits.

2000-2009

  1. Ichiro Suzuki (2,030)
  2. Derek Jeter (1,940)
  3. Miguel Tejada (1,860)
  4. Todd Helton (1,756)
  5. Vladimir Guerrero (1,751)

Tejada is the only name on this list that might take more than a couple of guesses. Of course, the most impressive feat here is that Ichiro managed to chalk up more than 2,000 hits in only 9 seasons.

1990-1999

  1. Mark Grace (1,754)
  2. Rafael Palmiero (1,747)
  3. Craig Biggio (1,728)
  4. Tony Gwynn (1,713)
  5. Roberto Alomar (1,678)

Biggio or Gwynn probably would have been my guess had I not known the answer beforehand. Biggio led the league in plate appearances in 5 seasons (’92, ’95, ’97,’98,’99), but he hit “only” .297 for the decade (versus .310 for Grace). Gwynn hit .344 in the nineties, but only managed to appear in more than 140 games twice.

1980-1989

  1. Robin Yount (1,731)
  2. Eddie Murray (1,642)
  3. Willie Wilson (1,639)
  4. Wade Boggs (1,597)
  5. Dale Murphy (1,553)

Willie Wilson gave himself a good head start with 230 hits in 1980, but Yount and Murray managed to make up the difference before the end of the eighties. The Royals’ great did crush the competition for most triples in the decade, however, with 115 (Yount was second with 83).

1970-1979 

  1. Pete Rose (2,045)
  2. Rod Carew (1,787)
  3. Al Oliver (1,686)
  4. Lou Brock (1,617)
  5. Bobby Bonds (1,565)

No surprises here, with Rose and Carew atop the list.

1960-1969

  1. Roberto Clemente (1,877)
  2. Hank Aaron (1,819)
  3. Vada Pinson (1,776)
  4. Maury Wills (1,744)
  5. Brooks Robinson (1,692)

For the decade, Clemente hit .328/.375/.501. He took the batting crown four times and hit over .350 twice (1961: .351 BA, 1967: .357 BA).

1950-1959

  1. Richie Ashburn (1,875)
  2. Nellie Fox (1,837)
  3. Stan Musial (1,771)
  4. Alvin Dark (1,675)
  5. Duke Snider (1,605)

Integration wasn’t exactly a comprehensive process from the jump when Jackie Robinson first appeared for the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1947, so we’ll make the fifties the last decade. All in all, Pete Rose unsurprisingly was the most prolific hits leader in any decade with 2,045 knocks in the 70s, but I’m not sure there’s a more impressive name on there than Ichiro, whose wizardy with the bat came up just 15 hits shy of Rose in just 9 seasons from 2001 to 2010.

Otherwise, definitely some names you might have expected (Rose, Young, Clemente), but it’s not as if a 3,000 hit king rules every decade. Ashburn, like Grace, hit the league at the perfect time to snag this award, as his career spanned from 1948 to 1962. He joins Grace and Cano as the non-3000 hit players to lead a decade in hits (though Cano still has an outside shot to get there). For their careers, Grace takes the distinction as the player with the least career hits to lead a decade in the category.

Who else on these list surprises you? Al Dark? Elvis Andrus? Who did you expect? Let’s hear your takes in the comments!

NL Notes: Cubs, Bryant, Heyward, Reds, Mahle, Nationals, Castro

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The Cubs aren’t yet sure how David Ross’ style as a tactician will differ from his predecessor, but Ross’ decisions are starting to trickle in and lend some clarity to the Cubs’ 2020 season. For starters, Kris Bryant as the leadoff man does not feel like an experiment – it’s happening. Ross likes Bryant’s speed and baserunning ability, and to his credit, there’s really nothing to dislike about Bryant in the leadoff spot. It does create questions further down the order, but coming off a season in which their leadoff men were last in the league with a .294 OBP, that’s a tradeoff they’re willing to make, per Mark Gonzalez of the Chicago Tribune. The other major decision passed down today was that Jason Heyward would remain in right field as often as possible. Given Heyward’s tremendous defensive abilities and a wRC+ that’s been at league average over the last two years, and it makes some sense to profile Heyward as a centerfielder. He’s more comfortable in right, however, and his glove does play as a genuine asset there. Let’s check in on a couple other National League clubs…

  • Tyler Mahle will be more than okay coming out of the bullpen for the Reds if that means staying in the big leagues, per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. In the rotation last year, Mahle went 3-12 with a 5.14 ERA/4.66 FIP across 129 2/3 innings in 25 starts. According to Mahle, his biggest problem was the lack of an effective put away breaking ball, something he’s working on by adding a slider. There might be something to Mahle’s analysis, as his curveball induced a 26.6 whiff%. More to the point might be his 7.11 ERA against left-handed hitters, though it’s part and parcel of the same issue, likely.
  • Starlin Castro is energized by the opportunity to play for a contender again, per Sam Fortier of the Washington Post. Between the changes that Castro made to his approach in the second half of last year, and his excitement over playing in games of consequence again, the Nationals are finding reasons to believe in Castro’s potential to make up for some of the offense lost in the wake of Anthony Rendon’s departure. Castro’s a difficult player to pin down in terms of ability, but he is a four-time All-Star entering his age-30 season, and before the terms of his current two-year deal run out, he may even cross the 2,000 hit threshold.

NL Notes: Kieboom, Harrison, Giants

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Let’s check in on a few roster situations from the National League.

  • The Nationals plan to give Carter Kieboom an opportunity to win the third base job, manager Dave Martinez told reporters (including Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington). The 22-year-old is a consensus top prospect coming off a year in which he hit .303/.409/.493 with 16 home runs in 494 plate appearances. Kieboom has played mostly in the middle infield in the minors, but Martinez indicated he’ll be used strictly as a third baseman for the time being. Washington hadn’t previously had room for Kieboom at the hot corner, but the departure of Anthony Rendon and failure to reel in Josh Donaldson created an opening. If Kieboom doesn’t prove ready for everyday playing time on a contender, Asdrúbal Cabrera gives Martinez a fallback option. Starlin Castro is on hand, too, but it seems Washington will keep him at second base full-time, relays Sam Fortier of the Washington Post.
  • Marlins’ outfield prospect Monte Harrison has an opportunity to win a spot on Miami’s season-opening roster, relays Joe Frisaro of MLB.com as part of a reader mailbag. Harrison, one of Miami’s top prospects, slashed a solid but unspectacular .274/.357/.451 in his first crack at Triple-A last season. Given the continued struggles of Lewis Brinson, who was acquired alongside Harrison in the regrettable Christian Yelich trade, there could be an opportunity for Harrison to claim the center field job. As Frisaro notes, Harrison is already on the Marlins’ 40-man roster, so no further move would be necessary.
  • Mike Yastrzemski seems likely to get the first crack at the center field job for the Giants, relays Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. That could give an opportunity for prospect Jaylin Davis, acquired last summer from the Twins, to stake a claim to a corner outfield spot. Yastrzemski was quite good for San Francisco in 2019, slashing .272/.334/.518 (121 wRC+) while serving primarily in the corner outfield, although he did start a pair of games in center. It’s an open question whether he can sustain that level of offensive production, considering he was previously an unheralded 28-year-old rookie. Steven Duggar’s also on hand and is a more natural fit in center defensively, but Pavlovic notes that he’s unlikely to have an everyday role. That’s not surprising, as Duggar owns a woeful .241/.286/.358 line (72 wRC+) over the past two seasons.

Filing Day Reactions: NL East

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After a busy filing day, let’s see what’s in store for a couple of teams in the NL East…

  • Only Shane Greene remains from their arbitration pool. The Braves and Greene have a $500K gap in their filing numbers to reconcile lest the panel get the final say. Greene will figure in the back end mix no matter his price point. With Will Smith in tow and a full season of Mark Melancon, Greene should slot in somewhere closer to the 7th inning along with Chris Martin and Luke Jackson. Overall, the Braves payroll is already set to open at a franchise record $130MM for the 2020 season – and that’s without Josh Donaldson, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien. It certainly says something that the Braves are still trying to bring back Donaldson despite already setting a team record for payroll. Despite the Nationals’ World Series title, the Braves are the back-to-back defending NL East champs, and they’ve been aggressive this winter in their attempt to make it a turkey with a third consecutive division crown in 2020.
  • The Phillies came away from filing day with deals with all but two of their arbitration candidates: J.T. Realmuto and Hector Neris. Philadelphia would like to hammer out an extension for Realmuto, with Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer supposing Realmuto to desire “something in the neighborhood of five years and $100 million.” An extension could grant GM Matt Klentak important flexibility. Right now the Opening Day payroll figures to land around $202MM, giving the club about $6MM in wiggle room for in-season additions before exceeding the luxury tax. Phillies managing partner John Middleton is prepared to pay the tax, but not for a team that doesn’t figure for the playoffs. For the second consecutive year, it looks like the Phillies will wait to see where they are in the standings before deciding to pay the tax.
  • The Nationals settled with all their arbitration eligible players, but GM Mike Rizzo spoke with the media today, touching on a number of topics. They expect resolution on the Ryan Zimmerman front shortly, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. GM Mike Rizzo met with Zimmerman for 90 minutes on Friday, and it’s long been expected that the Nats would bring back Mr. National for the title defense. As for third base, Rizzo considers the position filled without totally shutting the door on a Donaldson signing, per The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli. Asdrubal Cabrera and Starlin Castro figure to get time at third, and speculatively speaking, Howie Kendrick saw a few innings at the hot corner last year as well. Bottom line, the Nats plan on creativity and flexibility for their whole infield this year, and they are okay not naming and everyday starter, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post.

Nationals Sign Starlin Castro

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JANUARY 7: This deal is now official.

JANUARY 3: The Nationals have a deal with infielder Starlin Castro, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’s a two-year arrangement, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). The deal promises the Magnus Sports client $12MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter).

Castro will be tasked with handling second base for the defending World Series champs. Fellow free agents Brian Dozier and Asdrubal Cabrera handled most of the work at that position last year in D.C.

The Nationals have seen plenty of Castro over the past several seasons, as he has appeared with the division-rival Marlins. He has had ups and downs over the years, but has always showed up — averaging 149 games per season since 2011 — and typically delivered a useful combination of league-average offensive production and average glovework. Poorly graded baserunning has long been a bit of a drag on his overall value.

It’s not an exciting signing, by any stretch, but does check a box for the Nats. And perhaps the club sees reason to hope for a bit more out of Castro. He’s still just 29 years of age and vastly increased his offensive productivity in the second half of the 2019 campaign. In his final 285 plate appearances of the year, he slashed a hefty .302/.334/.558 with 16 long balls. He’s never going to draw many walks, so the question is Castro can continue to make better contact — both harder and higher — and thus maintain a meaningful portion of that second-half power outburst.

Even if Castro enters the season as the presumptive second baseman, he could ultimately move into a more flexible role — especially if top prospect Carter Kieboom forces his way into an everyday role. Castro has plenty of experience on the left side of the infield and could become part of a timeshare at third base if that becomes desirable (whether in the first or second year of the deal). Castro would pair well with a lefty hitter, as he has long been much more dangerous against southpaws.

As things stand, the Nats would rely upon the switch-hitting Wilmer Difo to spell Castro and shortstop Trea Turner. The team could pursue an upgrade over Difo. It might also add a more offensive-oriented player who can spend time at first base. There could be some overlap there, as well. The team’s ultimate moves at third base — Josh Donaldson remains the chief target, with a few major trade candidates also possible — may end up dictating the finishing touches on the bench. Whether or not Ryan Zimmerman ends up returning will also be a factor.

MLBTR Polls: Washington Nationals’ Recent Additions

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The defending champion Washington Nationals began their offseason in a holding pattern, awaiting the fates of two of their brightest stars: Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg. What shook out couldn’t have been more on-brand for the pitching-focused Nats. Strasburg re-upped with the only professional organization he’s known, while Rendon joined Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Joe Maddon on an Angels’ team frontrunning for Best Smiles in the AL West, if not the division crown.

Following those twining, superstar sagas, the Nats embarked on a period of relative calm throughout much of December. While waiting in the hallway with the Twins and Braves for Josh Donaldson to make his final contract demands, Nats’ GM Mike Rizzo contented himself with bringing back as much of the championship gang as he could manage. Living legend Howie Kendrick will be back for three-to-five starts per week somewhere in the infield, Yan Gomes returns to block Patrick Corbin sliders and share in the catching duties with Kurt Suzuki, and even mid-season bullpen stabilizer Javy Guerra will get another crack to stick in the bullpen on a minor league deal. Ryan Zimmerman continues to wait in the shadows, certain to re-sign at some point, though how regularly Mr. National will see the field in 2020 is entirely unclear.

This week, however, the Nats grew tired of waiting for Donaldson and moved to add a trio of free agents. Asdrubal Cabrera is the most familiar new/old face. The man most-often charged with protecting Juan Soto in the lineup during 2019’s second half returns to Washington on a one-year, $2.5MM guarantee. Cabrera put up insane numbers in August and September for the Nats (.323/.404/.565). While he bonded nicely with the club in his second stint in the District, the Nats’ can hardly expect Cabrera to put up anything close to the Rendonian line he boasted over the season’s final two months. Somewhere between Kendrick, (presumably) Zimmerman, and top prospect Carter Kieboom, Cabrera represents a capable option to gather loose change at-bats between first, second, and third base.

But the Nationals added a rival to that infield mix as well, inking Starlin Castro to a somewhat surprising two-year, $12MM deal. Ten years into his big league career, Castro turns just 30-years-old in March while carrying an uninspiring .280/.319/.414 career line. The Nats plan to let Castro have second base until Kieboom or somebody else takes it from him, and while he fits an organization ethos that trusts veteran contributors more than the average big league team, it’s hard to get too excited about a guy whose only real elite skill has been volume. He doesn’t strike out a ton, but he won’t take walks, and neither his speed nor power elicit much awe.

Castro did absolutely rip left-handed pitching in 2019, and in the right light, Castro’s home/road, left/right and 1sthalf/2ndhalf splits can all point to a player who deserves more credit than I’m giving him. For instance, he hit .302/.334/.558 in the second half and .286/.332/.447 away from Marlins Park. Together, Cabrera and Castro give the Nats two relatively similar players whose contributions will have to be monitored, like your favorite sublet, on a month-to-month basis.

Perhaps the most unassailable move made in this past week, funny enough, is the addition of spin-rate-savant Will Harris. Nats’ fans no doubt already hold a fondness for Harris after he surrendered the World Series winning home run to Kendrick late in game seven. Years of playoff disappointment prior to 2019 should have those in the District well-prepared to look beyond the volatility of playoff results and appreciate Harris for what he is: one of the best relievers in the league. After all, Astros’ manager AJ Hinch is hardly a doofus, and quibble if you will about his decision to let $324MM man Gerrit Cole languish away in the bullpen while Harris and Kendrick put the foul pole to work – but his decision to pitch Harris in that moment was entirely defensible. That he wanted Harris on the hill should further brighten the hearts of Nats’ fans, even if the three-year, $24MM deal given him at age-35 might cause some seat-squirming. Still, this is a guy with a 2.36 ERA/2.99 FIP over the last five seasons, and he insures the Nats’ bullpen against further wear-and-tear on Sean Doolittle or stagnation from hard-throwing righty Tanner Rainey.

Donaldson could still find himself suiting up next to Trea Turner on the left side of the Nats’ infield, but Rizzo has historically stuck to his number with position players, and if Donaldson’s demands have stretched beyond his comfortability, don’t expect the disciplined Rizzo to panic. Cabrera, Castro and Harris may not be the cavalry Nats’ fans expected to ride in to defend their first ever championship, but they’re here to help all the same. The question is, do they?

(Poll link for app users)

(Poll link for app users)

(Poll link for app users)

Third Base Notes: Donaldson, Braves, Bryant, Nats, Castro, Franco

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Now that Anthony Rendon has signed with the Angels, Josh Donaldson is both the top third baseman remaining on the open market and quite possibly the top free agent still available at any position.  There was already enough interest in Donaldson that he was reportedly looking more and more likely to receive a four-year commitment, which is good news for a player who “is seeking the largest possible guarantee” in his next contract, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes (subscription required).

The star third baseman just turned 34 this week and, since his injury-plagued 2018 season already cost him his first chance at a big multi-year free agent deal last winter, it isn’t surprising that Donaldson wants to max out his payday now that he is coming off an outstanding 2019 campaign.  Rosenthal hears that “all things being equal, Donaldson’s preference is to return to the Braves,” though if it comes down to a pure bidding war, Atlanta doesn’t seem to have the available payroll to outspend Donaldson suitors like the Dodgers, Rangers, Twins, or Nationals.

The Braves have already spread some significant cash around this winter, adding free agents Cole Hamels, Will Smith, and Travis d’Arnaud while re-signing Chris Martin, Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers, and Darren O’Day.  As per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, Atlanta is set to spend just under $142.2MM on player salaries next season, which would be the largest payroll in franchise history.  $142.2MM is a modest number compared to what most contending teams spend, though since there has long been speculation about how much money the Liberty Media ownership group would be willing to allocate to payroll, adding another major contract to the books (Donaldson’s next deal could well be in the area of $25MM in average annual value) might not be feasible, unless other salaries were cut loose.

If Atlanta misses out on Donaldson, they might need to get creative in adding another big bat to their lineup.  Reports from earlier this week suggested that the Braves could look to Marcell Ozuna, though Rosenthal notes that “they currently have only limited interest” in Ozuna’s services.  As for another big third base target in the Cubs’ Kris Bryant, Rosenthal notes that Atlanta is among the clubs who have concerns about Bryant’s declining glovework (as per UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved) over the last few seasons.  This doesn’t necessarily rule out a potential trade between the Braves and Cubs since Bryant could be used as a corner outfielder, though it doesn’t seem like Bryant is at the top of the Braves’ list at this point.

Speaking of fallback options for Donaldson, Rosenthal writes that Starlin Castro and Maikel Franco are on the Nationals’ radar as third base candidates.  Washington has gotten long looks at both players from their days in the NL East, though both Castro and Franco would certainly be stopgap options at best given their underwhelming performances over the last few seasons.  Castro has been a slightly below-average run producer (98 OPS+ and wRC+) since the start of the 2016 campaign, while Franco hasn’t lived up his billing as one of baseball’s top prospects, hitting only .249/.302/.431 over 2539 career PA with the Phillies.

In terms of bigger-ticket additions at third base, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter link) reports that the Nationals have yet to touch base with the Cubs about Bryant, contrary to earlier reports.  This isn’t to say that the Nats couldn’t still look into Bryant should Donaldson sign with another team.

Marlins To Decline Club Option On Starlin Castro

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As expected, the Marlins will decline their $16MM option on infielder Starlin Castro, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  Castro will instead receive a $1MM buyout and head into the free agent market for the first time in his career.

Castro’s eventual departure from Miami has been more or less forecast ever since he was acquired from the Yankees as part of the Giancarlo Stanton blockbuster in December 2017.  Castro’s inclusion in the deal was largely due to help balance out the salaries involved in the trade, and the Marlins have spent much of the last two seasons exploring trades for Castro as part of the club’s efforts to pare down payroll and move veteran talent.

Castro didn’t entirely help his trade value by posting a pair of decent but unspectacular seasons in Miami.  2018 saw him hit .278/.329/.400 over 647 PA, with a 101 wRC+ and 102 OPS+ indicating slightly above-average offense and solid glovework upping his value to 2.3 fWAR.  He took a step back to 1.3 fWAR and a 91 wRC+/94 OPS+ in 2019 largely due to a horrific opening three months of the season, as Castro hit only .230/.258/.313 over his first 345 plate appearances.

His much improved hitting from July 1 onward will help Castro’s chances in free agency, and he also boosted his versatility by playing third base for the first time in his Major League career, appearing in 45 games at the hot corner last season.  Though a ten-year veteran, Castro still doesn’t turn 30 years old until March, making him both younger and with a lot more experience as an everyday performer than several of the other second-tier options on the second base/third base market.

The Marlins will move forward with prospect Isan Diaz penciled into second base, though since Diaz only had a .566 OPS over his first 201 Major League plate appearances, Miami is likely to look for a veteran backup or multi-position player who could step into second base duty if Diaz still needs more minor league seasoning.  Re-signing Castro is “not a priority early in free agency,” Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald hears from a source, though the Marlins haven’t totally closed the door on the possibility of a Castro return.

Starlin Castro: Back From The Abyss

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As cliched as it sounds, this truly has been a tale of two seasons for Marlins second baseman Starlin Castro. Back on July 2, I wrote a piece titled “Starlin Castro’s Nightmare Season.” At that point, the four-time All-Star was in the throes of one of the worst years of anyone in baseball. He was a .230/.258/.313 hitter whose 51 wRC+ ranked last among qualified hitters and whose minus-1.2 fWAR was also at the absolute bottom of the sport. Since that date, though, Castro has rescued his season – an especially fortuitous development for someone who’s likely headed for free agency in another couple months.

This will hardly go down as a banner year for Castro, whose sorry first half has doomed him to a .270/.298/.420 line with an 87 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR through 597 plate appearances. But the 29-year-old has quietly been among the majors’ most effective position players going back to the beginning of July. Since then, Castro has batted .324/.353/.567 in 252 trips to the plate. The 138 wRC+ he has posted ties him with Mets first baseman and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso, while the 2.0 fWAR Castro has accrued puts him in company with MVP candidates Cody Bellinger and Ronald Acuna Jr., among other big-time producers.

So what’s behind Castro’s radical change in production? A massive upswing in power seems to be the obvious answer. When Castro was one of the game’s least effective hitters, he managed a pitiful .083 ISO – the game’s third-lowest figure – and just four home runs. Over the past couple months, though, Castro’s ISO has climbed to .244, and he has swatted 13 homers. As always, Castro has drawn few walks and struck out less than most players. However, a more aggressive, power-driven approach has led to a drastic turnaround. Take a look…

Castro before July:

  • Groundball percentage: 52.2
  • Fly ball percentage: 30.9
  • Line drive percentage: 16.7
  • Pull percentage: 40.8
  • Infield fly percentage: 10.7
  • Hard-hit percentage (per FanGraphs): 40.1

Castro since:

  • Groundball percentage: 43.9
  • Flyball percentage: 33.3
  • Line drive percentage: 22.7
  • Pull percentage: 49.5
  • Infield fly percentage: 7.6
  • Hard-hit percentage: 43.4

All of the above bodes well for an increase in power, making it no surprise Castro’s home run-to-fly ball rate has risen from a meager 6.0 percent to 19.7 since he began digging himself out of an enormous hole earlier in the summer. The success has come with less selectivity for Castro, whose swing rate has climbed from 47.6 percent to 51.3 in the past couple months. At the same time, Castro has made less contact and swung and missed more, but it hasn’t mattered. The rise in meaningful contact has helped beget a sizable gain in batting average on balls in play (from .262 to .346). While there may be good fortune baked into the new number, it’s closer to Castro’s career figure than his first-half mark. Dating back to his MLB debut in 2010, the former Cub and Yankee has recorded a .320 BABIP. Moreover, Castro has registered a BABIP of .330 or greater in five different seasons. With that in mind, it’s all the more clear that his in-season revival hasn’t simply been a product of luck.

Looking past this season – which will go down as yet another lost campaign for the woebegone Marlins – Castro still has another year of team control remaining. However, even though Castro has gone back to being a useful contributor as the season has gone on, the Marlins are sure to decline his $16MM club option for 2020 in favor of a $1MM buyout. Consequently, Castro will get his first taste of free agency on the heels of a quality finish to the season. That’s a major relief for a player whose contract year looked like a disaster not long ago.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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