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AL East Notes: Vazquez, Rays, Price, Red Sox

By Zachary Links | January 3, 2013 at 9:03pm CDT

Earlier today, we learned that the Nationals are interested in free agent starter Javier Vazquez, who is considering a return to MLB.  The Red Sox are also set to watch Vazquez pitch in Puerto Rico on Friday, but they're not the only team out of the American League East with an eye on the veteran.  More on that and other news from the division..

  • Alex Cora, who serves as the GM of Vazquez's team in Puerto Rico, told WEEI's Hot Stove Show that the Blue Jays have also been scouting the 36-year-old, according to Alex Speier on Twitter.  It's not clear if the Red Sox or Blue Jays would be willing to give Vazquez a big league contract, but the Nationals aren't believed to be considering it.
  • Cy Young winning left-hander David Price was happy to avoid arbitration with the Rays and says that he is open to a contract extension, writes Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times.  “If it’s right, we’ll do it,” Price said. “If not, I have to understand it’s a business first and foremost. (The Rays) want to win this year but also be able to win in the future as well. They have to do what’s best for the franchise.”  Rays executive VP of baseball operations Andrew Friedman won't rule out an extension, but acknowledged that there are a number of variables to consider.
  • Also on WEEI's Hot Stove Show, Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein opined that the Red Sox's haul of prospects in their blockbuster deal with the Dodgers was more valuable than the financial flexibility they gained in the deal, Speier writes.  The former Boston GM spoke very highly of right-handers Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa.
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Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays David Price Javier Vazquez

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Rays Notes: Price, Offense, Bullpen

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 3, 2013 at 2:06pm CDT

Earlier this week the Rays avoided arbitration with David Price, agreeing to a one-year deal worth $10.1125MM for 2013. The left-hander remains under team control through 2015, but as his salary continues to rise, the chances of a long-term deal with the Rays appear to diminish. Rays executive VP of baseball operations Andrew Friedman addressed the possibility of an extension for the left-hander, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times has the details…

  • Friedman said there are many variables to consider when assessing a possible extension for Price, but didn’t rule the possibility out. “We could certainly add another larger contract, but … it puts a lot more pressure on our remaining funds, which would be much smaller to fill out 23 guys around [Evan] Longoria and whoever that contract is [for], to be able to win.”
  • The Rays continue seeking at least one bat and some bullpen help, according to Topkin. However, Friedman suggested nothing is imminent. "I wouldn't say anything is close," he said.
  • As MLBTR's Arbitration Tracker shows, the Rays have four remaining arbitration eligible players: Sam Fuld, Matthew Joyce, Jeff Niemann and Ryan Roberts. Friedman said he hopes to resolve the cases relatively soon if possible.
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Tampa Bay Rays David Price

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Rays, David Price Avoid Arbitration

By Zachary Links | January 2, 2013 at 2:38pm CDT

The Rays have officially signed David Price to a one-year contract, the team announced. The deal is worth $10.1125MM and allows the two sides to avoid arbitration. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner is a Bo McKinnis client.

Uspw_6576754Price, 27, earned $4.35MM last season and was projected to earn $9.5MM in 2013 according to Matt Swartz's arbitration model, which was developed exclusively for MLBTR. The $10.1125MM salary is a new record for a second-time eligible pitcher, soaring past the $7.37MM earned by Jered Weaver in 2011. Price will be arbitration-eligible a total of four times as a Super Two, and he is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2015 season.

At $10.1125MM, Price also becomes the highest paid player in Rays' history, surpassing the $10MM earned by Carl Crawford in 2010. James Shields briefly held that record before he and his $10.25MM salary for 2013 were traded to the Royals a few weeks ago.

In 31 starts for the Rays last season, Price pitched to a 2.56 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. The first overall pick in the 2007 draft owns a 2.93 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in his three full seasons as a starter, eclipsing the 200-inning plateau all three times. In addition to winning the award this season, Price also finished second in 2010 Cy Young voting behind Felix Hernandez.

The Rays still have four unsigned arbitration-eligible players, as our Arbitration Tracker shows: Sam Fuld, Matt Joyce, Jeff Niemann, and Ryan Roberts. Tampa is one of baseball's "file and trail" teams, meaning if the two sides are unable to reach an agreement before the deadline to exchange salary figures (January 18th), the Rays cut off talks and go to a hearing. The team is 6-0 all-time in arbitration hearings and 5-0 under Andrew Friedman.

ESPN's Jerry Crasnick first reported the agreement while Roger Mooney of The Tampa Tribune and Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com later added details (Twitter links). Mike Axisa and Ben Nicholson-Smith also contributed to this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Tampa Bay Rays Transactions David Price

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Olney On Astros, Price, Ethier

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 2, 2013 at 12:43pm CDT

ESPN.com's Buster Olney explains that the Angels, Rangers, A's and Mariners could benefit from Houston's presence in the AL West. The Astros, losers of 100-plus games in 2011 and 2012, project as a sub-.500 team again in 2013. Conversely, NL Central teams such as the Reds and Cardinals might miss their former rival. Here’s more from Olney’s ESPN.com column…

  • Olney ranks the game's top infields, starting with the Rangers, Tigers and Reds.
  • There's an assumption within the industry that the Rays will trade David Price sometime in the next calendar year, Olney writes. The left-hander recently avoided arbitration with Tampa Bay, agreeing to a one-year, $10.1MM contract.
  • The Mariners have called the Dodgers repeatedly to ask about potential trades involving Andre Ethier, Olney reports. The Dodgers intend to hold onto Ethier, but would listen to offers on him. The Mariners haven't presented Los Angeles with a formal proposal, according to Olney.
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Arbitration Breakdown: David Price

By Matt Swartz | January 1, 2013 at 5:28pm CDT

Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors (read more about it here), but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.  To see projected salaries for all arbitration eligible players, click here.  To follow all the deals in advance of the January 18th exchange of figures, bookmark our arbitration tracker.  

I’ll start by looking at the reigning American League Cy Young, David Price.  This post was written before Price's agreement was announced today, so we decided to publish before his salary is announced. My model predicts that Price will earn $9.5MM in arbitration in 2013, a $5.15MM raise over his 2012 salary. Price earned $4.35MM last season while compiling a 20-5 record, thanks to a 2.56 ERA in 211 innings. Price and the Rays presumably were looking for comparable players in the pitcher’s service class—second-time arbitration eligible starting pitchers. There are very few players like Price, so they needed to stretch the criteria to find eligible players. Cy Young Awards are very important in arbitration cases, but pitchers who win them rarely reach a hearing or even settle for one-year deals. Even among players with the approximate three to six year service time window for arbitration, many elite pitchers who win Cy Youngs had already been signed to multi-year deals before winning (e.g. Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez). The last time a reigning Cy Young Award winner became eligible for his second year of arbitration was eight years ago, when Johan Santana got a $3.9MM raise as part of a multi-year deal. Cases that old are rarely considered in hearings, especially if they were part of multi-year deals.

The only pitchers in recent years who have been eligible for arbitration after getting a Cy Young have been Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw, both of whom were only eligible for their first year of arbitration and both of whom signed multi-year deals in lieu of reaching an agreement. Neither is a good comparison for Price. However, it is worth noting that Lincecum’s and Kershaw’s first-year salaries of $9MM and $7.75MM are between $3.4 and $4.65 million more than the next two non-Cy Young winners in recent years (Cole Hamels in 2009 and Price himself in 2012). Since Lincecum’s larger raise was partly due to having two Cy Youngs already, this suggests that the extra value in winning a Cy Young is probably about a couple million dollars. Remember that Lincecum’s and Kershaw’s numbers were also much better than Hamels’ and Price’s, so not all of the salary gap can be explained by the Cys.

There have been no second-time arbitration eligible starting pitchers in the last several years to earn a raise like the $5.15MM that I have projected for Price, which makes sense because there have been no comparable pitchers. The largest single-season raise in the last six years for a second time arbitration eligible starter went to Jered Weaver in 2011, who got a $3.105MM raise. However, he only had a 13-12 record and a 3.01 ERA in 2010, making him clearly a poor match.  Weaver was not the only pitcher who got a pretty big raise in his second year of arbitration on a one-year deal—slightly smaller raises went to Shaun Marcum ($3.1 million), Francisco Liriano ($2.7 million), and Jonathan Sanchez ($2.7 million).

Felix Hernandez might have been a better comparable in 2010, when he and the Mariners exchanged arbitration figures to follow up on his $3.85 million salary. Hernandez had just finished second in Cy Young voting, with a 19-5 record and a 2.49 ERA in 238.2 innings. The Mariners proposed a $3.4MM raise to $7.2MM, while he instead asked for a $7.7MM raise to $11.5MM. He ended up signing a five-year deal, which paid him just $6.5MM in 2010, but splitting his signing bonus between his two remaining arbitration eligible years, this can best be treated as an $8.25MM salary, a $4.4MM raise. Obviously, multi-year deals are different than one-year deals, so they are not ideal comparisons, but in the case of Price, this could be useful. The Mariners proposal of $3.4MM could be cited as a floor as well, since he did not have a Cy Young and Price does. Technically, if my assumption about how to distribute Hernadez’s signing bonus is correct, I could see an argument for a $4.4MM floor for a potential raise for Price.

Justin Verlander could also be a clue as to the floor for Price’s raise. He finished third in Cy Young voting in 2009, while receiving a $3.675MM salary in his first arbitration year. Verlander signed a multi-year deal in lieu of a one-year agreement, but beforehand he had proposed a $5.825MM raise and the Tigers had suggested a $3.215MM raise, which was pretty close to what he received in his multi-year deal.

It’s also worth noting that the largest salary raise for any arbitration eligible starting pitcher (other than first-time players) went to Cole Hamels in 2012, who got a $5.5MM raise. However, he was eligible for the fourth year, so he is definitely not a comparison. Raises grow over time. While hitters are not comparable either, it’s worth noting that the largest raise for a second-time eligible hitter was $5.65MM for Jacoby Ellsbury in 2012.

All of this points to a number that is considerably larger than a $3.5MM raise for Price, while the floor is much less clear. The Cy Young Awards of Lincecum and Kershaw in their first year of eligibility seemed to add close to a couple million to their salaries, so it seems like Price could probably get something like a $5MM raise, but really anything in the $4.5-6MM range would not surprise me for a case as unique as his.

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Arbitration Breakdown Tampa Bay Rays David Price

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Rays Looking For Relief Pitching

By Mark Polishuk | December 31, 2012 at 9:28am CDT

The Rays are looking to add another reliever or two, Tampa Bay executive VP Andrew Friedman tells Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times.  The Rays have made a few bullpen moves already this winter, such as signing Roberto Hernandez as a free agent, exercising Fernando Rodney's 2013 option and re-signing Joel Peralta.  If another reliever isn't added, internal options like Cesar Ramos or Brandon Gomes could play larger roles in the bullpen, plus the Rays could use whatever starting pitchers don't make the rotation. 

A quick look at the list of remaining free agents reveals a number of solid right-handed relief options still available.  As Smith points out, Friedman has been successful at acquiring relievers over the last several years, especially at finding unheralded arms who deliver big returns for Tampa.

Rodney and Peralta might not be the only Rays relievers bought back next season, as both J.P. Howell and Kyle Farnsworth are "still in the mix to return," writes Smith.  Howell, the top southpaw reliever left on the market, has at least five other suitors.  Farnworth has been targeted by the Brewers this winter, though Milwaukee may have completed its bullpen remodeling after agreeing to sign Mike Gonzalez.

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AL East Notes: Pedroia, LaRoche, Smoak, Thome

By Mark Polishuk | December 28, 2012 at 5:55pm CDT

In an appearance on WEEI radio's Red Sox Hot Stove show (partial transcript provided by WEEI.com's Alex Speier), Dustin Pedroia said he hadn't heard anything from his agents about any talks with the Red Sox about a possible contract extension.  It was reported in November that Boston was interested in extending its second baseman, and Pedroia is eager to pursue such negotiations should they arise. "Obviously, I want to be a Red Sox my whole career and play in that city, turn this whole thing around to get back to where we were my first couple years there," Pedroia said.

Here's the latest from the AL East…

  • The Red Sox are not only disinclined to give Adam LaRoche a three-year contract, but the club also doesn't want to surrender a draft pick to sign the free agent first baseman, tweets Peter Gammons.  Boston has interest in LaRoche as a backup option if Mike Napoli can't be signed, and signing LaRoche would cost the Sox their second-round draft pick since LaRoche turned down a qualifying offer from the Nationals. 
  • Speaking of that Red Sox draft pick, WEEI.com's Rob Bradford looks at why Boston is hesitant to give up that selection.
  • The Orioles "kicked the tires" on trading for Mariners first baseman Justin Smoak in each of the last two offseasons and also rated Smoak highly in his draft year, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.  Connolly sees Smoak as a good trade target for the O's and wonders if a Smoak-for-Brian Matusz deal would work for both teams.  We heard earlier this week that the Orioles continued to have interest in Smoak, who could be expendable now that Seattle has Kendrys Morales in the fold.
  • Jim Thome is "not an ideal fit" to return to the Orioles, writes MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli, as manager Buck Showalter would prefer to rotate his regulars through the DH spot.  Earlier this month, Thome said he is open to returning in 2013 for his 23rd Major League season.
  • The Rays' strong recent track record of signing veteran bullpen arms augers well for the Roberto Hernandez signing, writes MLB.com's Bill Chastain.  Hernandez signed a one-year, $3.25MM deal with the Rays earlier this month.
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Rays Still Searching For A Bat

By Zachary Links | December 24, 2012 at 6:00pm CDT

The Rays have already filled several holes this winter, but executive vice president Andrew Friedman says they're still looking for a "bat or two" to add for next season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  However, the choices available are somewhat limited at this stage of the offseason.

The Angels could have been a nice fit as a trading partner following the Josh Hamilton signing, but their trade of Kendrys Morales to Seattle has broken up the glut enough to allow Peter Bourjos and Mark Trumbo to fit into the lineup.  The Rays also pursued right fielder Nate Schierholtz, but he ended up signing a $2.25MM deal with the Cubs earlier this month.

Lance Berkman said that the Rays were one of four teams to show interest in him this winter and he could be a solid fit, provided that he decides to continue playing in 2013.  Jason Kubel is now expendable in Arizona, but it's hard to envision the Rays taking on his $7.5MM salary (plus $7.5MM mutual option for '14) unless the D'Backs cover part of it.

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Rays Sign Roberto Hernandez

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | December 18, 2012 at 4:14pm CDT

The Rays announced that they haved signed free agent right-hander Roberto Hernandez to a one-year, Major League contract. The deal is worth $3.25MM, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. The deal includes $1.85MM in incentives, some of which are based on innings and some of which are based on relief appearances. Topkin reported last week that the Rays were nearing a deal with the 32-year-old, who's represented by Jorge Brito and Charisse Espinosa-Dash.

Hernandez, who was formerly known as Fausto Carmona, made just three appearances at the MLB level this past season because of visa issues related to his identity fraud case. He allowed 15 runs in 14 2/3 innings spread across three late-season starts for the Indians.

Carmona hasn't appeared out of the bullpen since his rookie season, back in 2006. It appears that the Rays are considering him for the rotation and the bullpen based on the incentives in his contract.

Topkin first reported the agreement.

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Tampa Bay Rays Transactions Roberto Hernandez

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AL East Notes: Drew, Orioles, Blue Jays, Rays

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | December 18, 2012 at 10:05am CDT

On this date 21 years ago, the Blue Jays signed free agent starter Jack Morris to a two-year contract. The right-hander had recently led the Twins to a memorable World Series win over the Braves, out-pitching John Smoltz with ten shutout innings in the deciding seventh game. Morris won 21 games for the 1992 Blue Jays, and Toronto captured its first World Series title. Though Morris struggled in 1993, the Blue Jays successfully defended their title. Now 57, Morris is a candidate for Hall of Fame induction. Here are today's AL East links…

  • Stephen Drew will obtain $500K if he reaches 500 plate appearances in 2013, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports (on Twitter). Drew agreed to terms with the Red Sox on a one-year, $9.5MM deal yesterday.
  • The Orioles have spoken with at least six teams about possible trades, Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com reports. The Orioles are seeking a middle of the order bat, but aren't willing to trade their best prospects to obtain one. While there's some interest in pitchers such as Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman and Zach Britton, there are indications the Orioles wouldn't want to trade more than one of them. Plus, their trade value isn't particularly high.
  • The Blue Jays are prioritizing present gains over future potential, Shi Davidi writes at Sportsnet.ca. But it's not about a one-year gamble for GM Alex Anthopoulos. "This allows us to really put what we feel is a contending team together for an extended run, for a three-to-five year period," Anthopoulos said. An interesting note from Davidi's piece: Zack Greinke will out-earn Dickey's $30MM contract about a month into the 2014 season. The two contracts were signed under different circumstances, of course, but it’s still noteworthy.
  • Curtis Granderson expects to hit free agency after the 2013 season, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports. The Yankees have a team policy of waiting until players hit free agency before negotiating extensions, and Granderson doesn’t expect GM Brian Cashman to make an exception for him. “I’m just excited to play this year, and then, once we get to the end, we’ll take it at that point,” he said.
  • In a separate piece, Davidoff suggests that the best-run teams — he cites the Rays as one example — look to contend every year instead of targeting specific windows.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays Brian Matusz Chris Tillman Curtis Granderson Jake Arrieta R.A. Dickey Stephen Drew Zach Britton

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