Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays
The 2022 Rays fell short of capturing their third straight AL East crown but still qualified for the postseason for a fourth straight season. They have a small free agent class, meaning the vast majority of the gang can be brought back for another year. However, with a huge arbitration class that featured 19 players lined up for raises, and large number of Rule 5-eligible prospects, they will be forced to make some tough decisions, a process that has already begun.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Wander Franco, SS: $176MM through 2032, including $2MM buyout on $25MM option for 2033.
- Tyler Glasnow, SP: $30.35MM through 2024.
- Manuel Margot, OF: $19MM through 2024, including $2MM buyout on $12MM mutual option for 2025.
- Brandon Lowe, IF/OF: $15MM through 2024, including $1MM buyout on $10.5MM club option for 2025. Club also has $11.5MM option for for 2026 with $500K buyout.
- Brooks Raley, RP: $5.75MM through 2023, including $1.25MM buyout on $6.5MM club option for 2024.
Option Decisions
- Kevin Kiermaier, OF: club turned down $13MM club option in favor of a $2.5MM buyout.
Total 2023 commitments: $27.85MM
Total future commitments: $248.6MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Yonny Chirinos (4.125): $1.6MM
- Yandy Diaz (4.122): $5.4MM
- Ryan Yarbrough (4.117): $4.2MM
- Shawn Armstrong (4.113): $1.3MM
- Jalen Beeks (4.070): $1.2MM
- Andrew Kittredge (4.070): $2MM
- Francisco Mejía (4.062): $2.2MM
- Jeffrey Springs (4.055): $3MM
- Harold Ramírez (3.124): $2.1MM
- Colin Poche (3.109): $1.7MM
- JT Chargois (3.101): $1MM
- Pete Fairbanks (3.057): $1.5MM
- Christian Bethancourt (3.038): $1.6MM
- Ryan Thompson (3.000): $1.1MM
- Jason Adam (2.132): $1.9MM
- Randy Arozarena (2.129): $4MM
- Non-tender candidates: Choi, Chirinos, Yarbrough, Armstrong, Kittredge, Mejía, Poche, Chargois
Free Agents
The Rays entered 2022 having won the division title in 2020 and 2021, looking to be strong yet again. It was a bit of a disappointing season though, with the club bitten pretty hard by the injury bug, particularly on the pitching staff. Despite various ailments, they still snuck into the playoffs by going 86-76 and taking the final Wild Card spot in the first year of the 12-team expanded playoffs. With much of the same roster in place for next year, it’s possible that the club will be better in 2023 just by having better luck on the health front. However, as is always the case with the Rays, payroll concerns might lead to some notable subtractions and creative solutions, especially with the loaded arbitration class.
Since Tampa’s decisions are usually motivated by money in some way, let’s talk turkey up front. Roster Resource estimates that the club’s 2023 payroll is currently slated to be around $72MM. The club had an Opening Day figure of $84MM in 2022, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. A surprise splurge can’t be totally ruled out, since they reportedly made an offer to Freddie Freeman a year ago. However, that didn’t come to fruition and they ended up making modest signings while trading away arb-eligible players players like Austin Meadows, Joey Wendle and Jordan Luplow. If they are planning to spend at a similar level next year, they won’t have much to work with, though they could give themselves more breathing room by non-tendering or trading some of that big arb class. They’ve already gotten some of that work done, having traded Ji-Man Choi to the Pirates, as well as putting Nick Anderson and Roman Quinn on waivers. Those latter two elected free agency and Anderson has already signed with Atlanta.
The future offseason moves will hinge on where they subtract and where they add. Pitching seems to be especially in flux, with the club reportedly discussing Ryan Yarbrough, Shawn Armstrong and Yonny Chirinos in recent trades. None of those pitchers are essential pieces of the pitching staff, meaning the Rays are in a position to make some minor moves and still wind up in a decent position overall. Even with Shane Baz undergoing Tommy John surgery and likely to miss all of 2023, the rotation still consists of Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs in the front four spots.
Yarbrough is a candidate for the fifth spot, but he has a 4.90 ERA over the past two seasons combined. If they pull the trigger on a deal, that would leave a hole, but they have other options to fill it. Luis Patiño was limited by injuries in 2022 but is just 23 years old and could still establish himself as a valuable starter. There’s also Taj Bradley, considered to be one of the best pitching prospects in the game. He finished his season with 12 Triple-A starts and should be in position to make his MLB debut in 2023. Even if no one steps up to secure the final rotation spot or an injury creates another hole, the Rays have shown they’re not afraid to rely on bullpen games to grind through parts of the schedule. A free-agent addition can’t be ruled out, as the club signed Corey Kluber last year for a modest one-year, $8MM deal. However, they also have enough in-house options that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them spend elsewhere.
The bullpen is also in pretty good shape, unsurprising given Tampa’s penchant for finding unheralded arms and helping them find their best selves. Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Brooks Raley, J.P. Feyereisen, Jalen Beeks, JT Chargois all posted ERAs under 3.00 in 2022 and should form a solid backbone for the relief corps. A trade can never be ruled out with Tampa, but none of that group is projected to make more than a few million. Given the club’s knack for finding hidden gems, it’s possible they’ll make another low-key signing or two in order to supplement the group. Raley, for instance, posted a 4.78 ERA with Houston in 2021 as a 33-year-old before signing a $10MM deal with the Rays. He then earned a 2.68 ERA in Tampa this year. Adam, the owner of a 1.56 ERA through 63 1/3 innings with the Rays this past season, is an even more extreme example; he signed for just $900K prior to the 2022 season.
One area without a solid foundation is the catching mix. The Rays picked up a club option on Mike Zunino for 2022, but he performed poorly over 36 games before requiring season-ending surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. To fill that hole, the Rays acquired Christian Bethancourt in a trade with the A’s. The veteran was playing in the big leagues for the first time since 2017, having been bouncing around various organization, including a stint in the KBO. He ended up having the best season of his career, hitting .252/.283/.409 for a wRC+ of 101. He also got positive marks for his glovework, leading to 1.9 fWAR on the year in just 101 games. He can be retained via a modest arbitration raise, but do the Rays want to go into the season relying on a 31-year-old journeyman with an inconsistent track record, even if his 2022 was solid?
Francisco Mejía and René Pinto are also on the 40-man roster to give them some depth, but the Rays could still look to address the catching mix in some way. They don’t seem likely to spend at top-of-the-market rates for (e.g. Willson Contreras, Christian Vazquez), but there will be more affordable options, such as Omar Narvaez, Austin Hedges, Gary Sanchez, Tucker Barnhart and Roberto Perez. The trade market should also give them access to Oakland’s Sean Murphy or one of Toronto’s many backstops, though the latter scenario is likely difficult to line up for the AL East competitors.
For the middle infield, the Rays will be hoping for better health on the injury front in 2023. Shortstop Wander Franco and second baseman Brandon Lowe each missed significant time and neither got into more than 83 games on the year. Franco, of course, was considered the top prospect in the game and had a strong debut in 2021. Only 20 years old at the time, he then signed an 11-year extension to be the club’s shortstop and face of the franchise for over a decade. The first season was frustrating because of the injuries, but he’ll look to bounce back next year. Lowe is now 28 and has just two guaranteed years left on his contract, though there’s also a club option for 2025. You can never rule out a trade when it comes to the Rays, but given his down year, it would be selling low to make a move at this time.
For the rest of the infield, Choi has already been subtracted at first base but they still have many options for the corner spots and utility/bench roles. Yandy Diaz is coming off the best offensive season of his career and should have one spot locked down. He’s mostly played third base but can move across to first on occasion. Then there’s Isaac Paredes, Jonathan Aranda, Harold Ramírez, Taylor Walls, Vidal Bruján, Luke Raley and Miles Mastrobuoni on the 40-man roster. Not yet on the 40-man are highly-touted prospects like Kyle Manzardo, Xavier Edwards, Curtis Mead and Greg Jones. Those latter three will need to be selected this week to be protected from being scooped in the Rule 5 draft. That will surely lead to some classic Tampa roster shuffling in the days to come, but they should finish with many intriguing options for filling out the infield picture in 2023.
In the outfield, Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot and Jose Siri are the three on-paper regulars, now that David Peralta is a free agent. Some of the utility infield options from the last paragraph will be in the mix for playing time on the turf as well, alongside former top prospect Josh Lowe and waiver pickup Bligh Madris. As said previously, no one can confidently say the Rays won’t trade from this mix. They’ve previously moved solid regulars like Tommy Pham and Austin Meadows, after all. While most of these current Rays have yet to reach arbitration, Arozarena just qualified as a Super Two and will now go through the arb process for the first of four times. Margot still has two years and $19MM left on his extension, making him the most expensive of the bunch. For now, they have plenty of options, but that can change in a hurry.
The path forward for the Rays is very unpredictable in terms of the specifics but it seems like it will follow a familiar path in a broad sense. Given their low-spending ways and roster crunch, they will surely be very active. They’ve already flipped Choi and cut Anderson, with more of those kinds of moves surely in the cards. Some of their arb-eligible players will likely be dealt or non-tendered, though there are so many options that even the Rays themselves can’t yet be sure just who’ll change hands.
Once the dust settles on those, they should have a few dollars to spend on modest additions to fill out whatever holes are created. It might not be as exciting as a team that’s targeting Aaron Judge or Jacob deGrom in free agency, but this is how the Rays operate and they do it well. Even in an injury-marred 2022, they still grabbed their fourth straight postseason berth. Given that most of their key pieces are still in place next year, a bit more luck on the health front should have them back in the playoff mix yet again, though likely with more than a handful of new names and new faces.
In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Rays-centric chat on 11-14-22. Click here to read the transcript.
The Opener: Approaching Deadlines, Montero, Orioles
With more offseason deadlines on the horizon, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Qualifying offer, Rule 5 deadlines likely to spur movement
Two major offseason deadlines are coming tomorrow, which will likely be the focus of much of the offseason movement that happens today. Qualifying offer recipients must accept or reject the QO by 4pm EST tomorrow, and 40-man rosters must be set ahead of the Rule 5 Draft by 6pm EST tomorrow. The QO deadline could certainly see some recipients with less expected earning power, such as Joc Pederson or Martin Perez, either accept the QO or negotiate a multi-year deal with their previous team — perhaps after initially accepting, as Jose Abreu did during the 2019-20 offseason. While the names weighing the QO might garner more attention, it’s the Rule 5 deadline that will lead to more immediate action. Teams need to make room on their 40-man rosters for any prospects they want to protect from the Rule 5 Draft, which will require adding them to the 40-man roster. That forthcoming wave of additions will lead to a slew of players being designated for assignment, placed on waivers and perhaps traded, as teams create space on the fringes of their roster. This could also lead to some early non-tenders of arbitration-eligible players, as the Nov. 18 non-tender deadline is quickly approaching, too. As Mark Polishuk noted last night, the Rays figure to be one of the most proactive teams in terms of clearing up their 40-man roster in the coming days, having already shipped first baseman Ji-Man Choi to Pittsburgh last week.
2. Montero contract provides another data point on the relief market
In Friday’s Opener, I discussed the surprisingly strong relief market that relief pitchers have found this offseason, and how it could translate to the other relievers on the market. Rafael Montero indeed secured a third year on his new contract with the Astros, as predicted on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent list, but his $34.5MM guarantee handily exceeded expectations. If that amount doesn’t seem particularly striking to you, consider righty Kendall Graveman, another former Astros/Mariners setup man, signed a three-year $24MM deal last winter despite being a year younger at the time of signing. Montero stands as a third pricey relief re-signing, to go with Edwin Diaz and Robert Suarez.
3. How aggressive will the Orioles be this offseason?
Orioles general manager Mike Elias pledged in August that payroll will rise in 2023 — though it’d be hard for it to decline much over its 2022 levels — which prompted many O’s fans to dream of marquee free-agent splashes as the team emerges from its rebuild. Over the weekend, however, Elias stated that the Orioles will not “go from zero miles an hour to 60 miles an hour in one offseason,” which casts doubt on whether the team will jump right into the deep end of the free-agent pool. At present, John Means‘ $2.975MM salary is the only guarantee on the Orioles’ books, though between arbitration projections and a slate of pre-arb players to round out the roster, they project for a total of about $41MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. There’s ample space for multiple additions to the payroll, then, be it via free agency or perhaps by way of acquiring an established veteran in exchange for some minor league talent. With an impressive young core featuring the likes of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays — plus righty Grayson Rodriguez and several more top prospects looming — the Orioles appear on the cusp of a return to contention — if they can make the right moves to supplement that group. With so much payroll space available and a deep farm from which to trade for Major League talent, they’re one of the most fascinating clubs of the offseason.
Rays Notes: 40-Man Roster, Trades, Choi, Kiermaier
Several teams are facing a 40-man roster crunch this winter, with the Rays in particular facing a lot of tough decisions due to the depth in their talented farm system. As such, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links) reports that the Rays have been “in advanced trade negotiations” and could make multiple deals before Tuesday’s deadline to set 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft. The Reds, Cubs, Mets, and Angels are among the teams who have called the Rays in search of pitching.
Any number of options could be on the table for a Tampa Bay front office that is always seeking roster and payroll flexibility. It is possible and even likely that the Rays might not swing any major deals, as Tampa might first be exploring the trade value of any players at the back end of their 40-man roster. Before leaving these players unprotected or maybe even non-tendering them or designating them for assignment, the Rays first want to check if anything can be obtained in exchange for these somewhat expendable pieces.
A more interesting wrinkle would see the Rays discussing trades involving prospects or part-time players who might also be a bit superfluous within the organization. Last November, the Rays dealt Louis Head, Mike Brosseau, Brent Honeywell Jr., and Tobias Myers in separate trades in the week prior to the 40-man deadline. Of that group, only Brosseau had some success at the MLB level in 2022, posting some solid numbers in a reserve role with the Brewers.
Of course, the biggest headline-grabber for the Rays would be a trade involving a regular on their Major League roster, and this possibility certainly can’t be ruled out given Tampa’s history of aggressive deal-making. The Rays have a very large arbitration class that they’ve already reduced to “only” 16 remaining players, after trading Ji-Man Choi to the Pirates and parting ways with Nick Anderson and Roman Quinn. None of the arbitration-eligibles are projected to earn truly huge money, but every dollar counts for the budget-conscious Rays, and Yandy Diaz ($5.4MM in projected salary), Ryan Yarbrough ($4.2MM) and Randy Arozarena ($4MM) are the most expensive of the bunch.
Yonny Chirinos is projected for $1.6MM and Shawn Armstrong for $1.4MM, and those two hurlers stand out since Morosi reported earlier this week that the Rays were discussing Chirinos, Armstrong, and Yarbrough during the GM Meetings. It isn’t known if the Reds, Angels, Cubs, or Mets were focused on any of this trio in particular, but any of those pitchers could be potential fits for teams with rotation or bullpen needs. Chirinos could carry the most intrigue, as the right-hander pitched well in 2018-19 before injuries (a Tommy John surgery and a fractured elbow) limited him to just 18 1/3 MLB innings since the start of the 2020 campaign.
Choi’s projected $4.5MM salary certainly played a role in his move to Pittsburgh, and the Rays were known to be talking to more than just the Pirates about the first baseman. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Padres and Astros also had some interest, with Houston revisiting their interest in Choi from prior to the trade deadline.
The Astros ended up adding Trey Mancini to bolster themselves at first base, but since Mancini and Yuli Gurriel are both free agents, it makes sense that the Astros would again check in on a past target. Likewise, the Padres have a need at first base with Josh Bell hitting the open market. Choi is scheduled for free agency himself next winter and thus probably wouldn’t have been seen a longer-term add for either team, or even a full-time option. Either Houston or San Diego might have opted to just play Choi against right-handed pitching.
Also from Topkin’s notes column, he had an interesting wrinkle to the end of Kevin Kiermaier‘s tenure in Tampa Bay. There was no doubt that the Rays were going to buy out Kiermaier for $2.5MM rather than exercise his $13MM club option for 2023, yet Kiermaier said that he heard an unknown team had some talks with the Rays about a veritable sign-and-trade deal. In this scenario, the Rays would have exercised the club option and then swapped Kiermaier to this mystery team.
Given that Kiermaier is coming off a season shortened by hip surgery, it doesn’t seem likely that the other club would’ve been too keen to give up an asset to absorb that entire $13MM contract. It is more probable that the other team perhaps offered another undesirable contract in return to help offset the cost, or maybe had Kiermaier involved as part of a larger trade package. In any case, the Rays weren’t interested, and preferred to just decline the option — perhaps with an eye towards re-signing Kiermaier at a lower price.
Rays Hire Jon Daniels As Senior Advisor For Baseball Operations
The Rays announced to reporters, including Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, that they have hired Jon Daniels as senior advisor for baseball operations. Daniels had spent many years with the Rangers until he was recently fired as president of baseball operations.
Daniels, 45, spent 17 years running the baseball operations in Texas, getting hired as general manager in 2005 and promoted to the POBO role in 2013. The Rangers had their best run of success with Daniels at the helm, as they made the playoffs in five out of seven seasons from 2010 to 2016, including trips to the World Series in the first two of those years. Since that time, however, the club has entered a rebuilding period that has continued to linger. They fell to 78-84 in 2017 and just endured their sixth straight losing season in 2022, with Daniels getting fired in August.
Despite the poor results in recent seasons, the Rays will bring Daniels into their front office mix. Said front office is headed by Erik Neander, president of baseball operations, followed by Peter Bendix, senior vice president baseball operations and general manager. The exact level of involvement they expect from Daniels is unclear, though Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relays that Daniels will focus on “supporting baseball ops senior leadership while utilizing his extensive experience in the industry to help further inform decision-making.”
In addition to the hiring of Daniels, the Rays also announced several promotions and/or title changes, with Topkin giving a rundown on Twitter (link one, two and three).
Pirates Acquire Ji-Man Choi From Rays
The Pirates have landed their new first baseman, announcing agreement with the Rays on a deal that brings in Ji-Man Choi. Minor league pitcher Jack Hartman goes to Tampa Bay in a one-for-one swap.
The move brings to an end Choi’s four-plus year tenure in Tampa Bay. The Rays first acquired the first baseman from the Brewers in June 2018, sending utilityman Brad Miller to Milwaukee in a swap of big leaguers. Choi hit the ground running, putting up a .269/.370/.506 line in 49 games down the stretch. He staked a claim to a regular job in the Rays first base/designated hitter rotation, one he’s held the past few years.
Choi has been an above-average overall hitter in each of the past three seasons. He strikes out a fair amount and has hit between .229 and .233 the whole time, but he compensates for the mediocre batting averages by drawing plenty of free passes. Choi has walked in around 14% of his plate appearances in each of the last three years, pushing his on-base percentage into the .330 to .350 range. He typically gets into the double-digits in home runs and approaches 20 doubles annually.
Going back to the start of 2020, Choi owns a .231/.342/.399 line in 869 cumulative plate appearances. That offensive production checks in 14 points better than league average, by measure of wRC+. A left-handed hitter, Choi has only mustered a .203/.290/.301 line in his career against southpaws. He’s a .247/.355/.454 hitter against right-handed pitching, making him a solid platoon option for first base and designated hitter. It’s not too dissimilar from the role Daniel Vogelbach played for the Bucs in 2022 before they dealt him to the Mets.
Choi has between five and six years of MLB service, so he’s going through the arbitration process for the final time. MLTBR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $4.5MM salary, a modest but not completely insignificant amount. He was part of a large arbitration class in Tampa Bay and looked like a possible non-tender candidate. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted yesterday the Rays were marketing Choi at this week’s GM meetings. Morosi added pitchers Ryan Yarbrough, Yonny Chirinos and Shawn Armstrong as other players the Tampa Bay front office was discussing with other teams.
The Pirates entered the offseason seeking first base help, and they’ll take on Choi’s final season of club control to plug that gap. Factoring in his arbitration projection brings the Bucs’ 2023 payroll slate to an estimated $50MM, per Roster Resource. Pittsburgh opened this past season with a payroll in the $56MM range. The Pirates are sure to search for catching help and are likely to bolster their starting rotation within the next few months, even as they field offers on big leaguers like Kevin Newman as part of the ongoing rebuild. Choi himself could be a midseason trade candidate if he’s hitting up to his usual standards and the Pirates fall back out of contention next summer.
Hartman, meanwhile, was a fourth-round pick in 2020. Pittsburgh nabbed him out of Appalachian State University as a $60K senior signee. The 24-year-old righty spent this year in Low-A, working as a reliever. He put up a 6.27 ERA through 18 2/3 innings, striking out a below-average 20.4% of opponents against a massive 17.2% walk rate. The Rays will hope a change of scenery can push him up the minor league ladder; he’d be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next offseason if not added to the 40-man roster.
Naver Sports in Korea was first to report Choi had been traded to the Pirates. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported the Rays would receive a minor league player in return.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Rays Outright Brendan McKay, Roman Quinn, Jimmy Yacabonis
The Rays announced a number of roster moves today, including right-hander Nick Anderson‘s clearing waivers and electing free agency, which has already been reported. According to the team announcement, the same is true of outfielder Roman Quinn and righty Jimmy Yacabonis. A fourth player, lefty Brendan McKay, cleared waivers and was outrighted, though he lacks the ability to elect free agency and will stay with the organization.
Quinn, 30 in May, has spent the majority of his MLB time with the Phillies, though he got into 21 games as a Ray towards the end of 2022. He’s long been intriguing due to his speed and defense but has never hit much. His career batting line is .226/.303/.348 for a wRC+ of 78. He was better than that in his small sample with the Rays, hitting .262/.340/.405 for a wRC+ of 119, but that wasn’t enough to hold onto his roster spot. Since he has over three years of MLB service time, he had the right to reject the outright assignment in favor of free agency.
Yacabonis, 31 in March, has seen action in five different MLB seasons, spending time with the Orioles and Mariners before splitting 2022 between the Marlins and Rays. He tossed 14 innings on the year between the two clubs with an 8.36 ERA. He fared much better in the minors, putting up an ERA of 3.21 across 33 2/3 innings between the two orgs. That came with a 10.9% walk rate but an impressive 31.4% strikeout rate. He was eligible to elect minor league free agency based on having spent seven or more seasons in the minors.
As for McKay, he was drafted by the Rays fourth overall in 2017 and was once a highly-touted two-way prospect. Unfortunately, a devastating rash of injuries have hampered him in recent years. He missed 2020 due to a shoulder injury that later required surgery. When rehabbing in 2021, he suffered a flexor strain, which was followed shortly thereafter by a diagnosis of thoracic outlet syndrome. He underwent surgery for that but then required Tommy John surgery in September of this year. That means 2023 will be a fourth straight lost season for the southpaw.
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relayed the moves before the official team announcement.
Nick Anderson Clears Waivers, Elects Free Agency
November 10: Anderson has cleared waivers and elected free agency, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
November 9: The Rays have placed right-hander Nick Anderson on outright waivers, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. The hard-throwing reliever no longer occupies a spot on Tampa Bay’s 40-man roster, and other clubs have an opportunity to add him if they’re willing to devote him a roster spot.
It’s certainly not the way the Rays envisioned Anderson’s tenure in the organization coming to a close. He had a breakout rookie season with the Marlins in 2019, and Tampa Bay flipped highly-touted outfielder Jesús Sánchez to Miami to add him at the deadline. Anderson posted a 2.11 ERA with a laughable 52.6% strikeout rate in 21 1/3 innings down the stretch. Anderson followed up with a 0.55 ERA across 16 1/3 innings during the shortened 2020 season, working as manager Kevin Cash’s most-trusted leverage arm in both of those years.
Unfortunately, Anderson’s form was diminished in the 2020 postseason. He had some forearm inflammation late in that season, proving a precursor to two years lost to injury. He was diagnosed with a partial UCL tear during Spring Training 2021. He appeared in only six games before going back on the IL. Last October, Anderson underwent a UCL brace procedure to repair his ligament. He was out until August, then suffered plantar fasciitis in his right foot late in the year.
Anderson’s 2022 season consisted of just 16 innings with Triple-A Durham. He put up a 5.63 ERA with a modest 17.4% strikeout rate, and that diminished form eventually led the Rays to cut bait.
With between three and four years of MLB service, Anderson is eligible for arbitration for the first time. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for just an $845K salary, barely above the league minimum. That could lead another team to take a look at a formerly elite bullpen arm via waivers. If Anderson were to go unclaimed, he’d have the right to refuse an outright assignment in favor of minor league free agency.
Rays Decline Kevin Kiermaier’s Option
The Rays announced they’ve officially declined their option over outfielder Kevin Kiermaier. Kiermaier collects a $2.5MM buyout and heads to free agency for the first time in his career.
There hasn’t much suspense with this decision, as reports emerged in early August that Tampa Bay would buy the center fielder out. That would’ve been an easy call for any team, as Kiermaier would otherwise have been in line for a $13MM salary next year. He’s coming off season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left hip. With a $10.5MM gap between the option value and the buyout price, cutting him loose was a particularly easy call for a Rays club that consistently runs one of the league’s lower payrolls.
The move could officially end Kiermaier’s 10-year tenure in Tampa Bay. One of the game’s best defensive outfielders at his peak, he’s collected three Gold Glove awards in his career. The Rays have long placed an emphasis on strong defense, and that focus was baked into the club’s decision to sign Kiermaier to a $53.5MM extension back in 2017. He’s battled injuries and typically been a below-average hitter over that stretch, but he’s continued to play spectacular defense when healthy enough to take the field.
Both Kiermaier and Rays executives have expressed an openness to continuing their relationship, although that’d certainly come at a lower price point than the value of the option. Meanwhile, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests the Cardinals could have some interest in Kiermaier as a free agent. St. Louis already has Dylan Carlson as their primary center fielder, meaning Kiermaier would likely be a fourth outfield target if the Cards did reach out to his representatives at Reynolds Sports Management.
It’s possible Kiermaier may find better opportunities to play every day in center field elsewhere. He’s headed into his age-33 season and coming off a disappointing .228/.281/.369 showing in 221 plate appearances before the hip surgery. Yet he’s also still one of the sport’s better defensive outfielders, and he’s arguably the second-best center fielder available in a weak free agent class. Excepting top free agent Aaron Judge, who’s better suited for right field long-term, only Brandon Nimmo looks like a slam-dunk regular to play center field next year. Nimmo’s likely to command a nine-figure contract of his own, and Kiermaier is alongside players like Jackie Bradley Jr. and Adam Duvall as the next tier of options. The Dodgers could non-tender Cody Bellinger, which would cut loose a plus defender coming off a couple seasons of offensive struggles, but the options aren’t robust for teams looking for outside help in center field.
Rays Promote Rodney Linares To Bench Coach
The Rays have named third base coach Rodney Linares as the team’s new bench coach, according to Jon Morosi of the MLB Network (Twitter link). Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times recently reported that Linares was expected to take over bench coach duties from Matt Quatraro, who was hired as the Royals’ new manager.
The 45-year-old Linares has been the Rays’ third base coach for the last four seasons, coming to Tampa after a long stint in the Astros organization that saw his coaching career begin at age 21. Starting off as a coach and instructor at that young age, Linares got his first managerial assignment in 2007, and worked his way up the minor league ladder to manage all of Houston’s rookie ball, A-ball, high-A, Double-A, and Triple-A affiliates from 2007-18.
Linares will also have a high-profile managerial role during the World Baseball Classic in March, as he’ll man the dugout for the Dominican Republic’s national team. As Morosi notes, Linares is viewed by many as a candidate to eventually manage a Major League club, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him receive interviews during the next round of managerial openings. Quatraro and Charlie Montoyo both moved from the Tampa bench coach job to become a manager elsewhere, as rival teams frequently target the Rays for managerial, coaching staff, and front office hires.
AL Notes: Verdugo, Mike Maddux, Rays’ Coaching Shuffle
Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com has floated Alex Verdugo‘s name as a potential trade candidate this offseason. Verdugo, age-26, is coming off a season in which he regressed on all fronts of his game. From 2021 to 2022, Verdugo’s wRC+ dipped from 107 to 103, all of the figures in his slash decreased (.289/.351/.426 to .280/.328/.405), he lost .2 ft/s in sprint speed, and went from +1 DRS in 2021 to -4 DRS in 2022. Cotillo adds that according to a source, Red Sox brass were frustrated with his decision to bulk up in the offseason, a choice Verdugo made with the intention of hitting for more power. As evident by his decreased slugging and the fact that his weight has seemingly slowed him down on the bases and in the outfield, the choice to get bigger appears to have hindered Verdugo’s development more than it has helped him.
Speculation regarding a potential Verdugo trade comes as the Red Sox are in need of some help in the outfield. As currently constructed, Verdugo and Kiké Hernandez are Boston’s only outfield locks. Rob Refsnyder and Jarren Duran are decent depth options, but don’t provide as much thump as external options perhaps would, and a Verdugo-Hernandez-Refsnyder/Duran combo would leave Boston’s outfield lacking in offensive firepower. If the Red Sox do trade Verdugo, it would probably come after Boston goes out and gets someone on the free agent market or via trade to lock down a corner outfield spot. Verdugo could fetch the Sox a decent return, and may be flipped to improve Boston’s bullpen, which struggled in 2022. With Verdugo set for a pay raise in his second year of arbitration, it will not be entirely surprising if Chaim Bloom decides to move on from one of the centerpieces of Boston’s return from the Mookie Betts trade.
Some other news from around the AL:
- Mike Maddux is interested in rejoining the Rangers as their pitching coach, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The Rangers fired Doug Mathis and re-assigned Brendan Sagara, who had served as co-pitching coaches for 2022, less than twenty-four hours after the end of the 2023 season. Maddux previously served as Rangers pitching coach from 2009 to 2015, and recently left his post as pitching coach of the Cardinals. Grant notes that Maddux lives in the Dallas area, adding that the Rangers could pair a veteran coach, like Maddux, with someone else who is “more in tune with biomechanics and the art of pitch design” to co-lead the Rangers staff.
- Brady Williams, manager of Triple-A Durham for the Rays, will be promoted to big league staff as part of the fall out from the Royals’ managerial hiring of former Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. With Quatraro out, third base coach Rodney Linares is expected to become the new bench coach. It is unclear as to what role Williams will assume with the Rays in what will be his first opportunity to coach in the big leagues. Williams has spent his entire coaching career within the Rays organization, managing at Short-Season Hudson Valley, Single-A Bowling Green, Advanced-A Charlotte, and Double-A Montgomery, as well as Durham before getting the call to the majors.