Rosenthal On Nats, Chen, Maeda, Davis, Orioles
In his latest notes column for FOX Sports, Ken Rosenthal reports that the Diamondbacks strongly considered a swap that would’ve sent center fielder Ender Inciarte to the Nationals in exchange for lefty Gio Gonzalez. While such a scenario is no longer a possibility — Inciarte went to the Braves along with two other highly regarded pieces in exchange for Shelby Miller, and Gonzalez makes little sense for a rebuilding Atlanta club — Rosenthal notes that the Nats could still explore similar possibilities. Moving Gonzalez for a center field option and then signing Wei-Yin Chen, to whom the Nats have previously been linked, could give the team the left-handed-hitting center field option it desires without significantly weakening the rotation. It’s also worth noting that Washington has been linked to the Rockies in the past, who have a left-handed hitting center field option in the form of Charlie Blackmon, though GM Mike Rizzo figures to explore many avenues if that route is indeed on the table.
A few more notes from Rosenthal’s latest column…
- Rizzo has repeatedly stated that he’s not interested in trading Jonathan Papelbon or Drew Storen unless he receives a nice return, but sources tell Rosenthal that the Nationals are indeed trying to move both of the right-handers. The Nats would likely need additional bullpen help were they to move either pitcher, though as Rosenthal points out, right-hander Tyler Clippard is still available in free agency, and a reunion between the two sides could make some sense. The Dodgers “figure to be” one club that will check in with the Nationals regarding Storen, Rosenthal writes.
- The specific irregularities in Kenta Maeda‘s elbow remain unknown, but the Dodgers‘ $25MM guarantee with $10MM worth of annual incentives is a reflection of the team’s acknowledgment that he may require surgery over the deal. According to Rosenthal, the bonuses at the back end of the deal are “largely unattainable,” so even though the contract can max out at $105MM over eight years, it’s unlikely that Maeda will receive such a sum. The elbow issue was known to every team that requested Maeda’s medical information, as it turned up in an MRI taken at the urge of his representatives with the Wasserman Media Group. Per Rosenthal, Maeda is presently asymptomatic and pain-free when he pitches.
- The Orioles have been debating moving on from Chris Davis for about a month, but the team remains engaged with the slugging first baseman due to owner Peter Angelos’ affinity for Davis. If Baltimore does ultimately move on to alternatives, Yoenis Cespedes is a more likely target for the team than Justin Upton, as Cespedes wouldn’t require the O’s to part with a draft pick.
NL West Notes: Span, Giants, Maeda, Parra, Rea
The Giants expect to install Denard Span in center field and at the top of the lineup, pushing Angel Pagan to left, Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News writes, Having added Span, moreover, San Francisco appears not to be involved in the rest of the outfield market, according to Baggarly (via Twitter). Indeed, it’s not even clear that the team was looking elsewhere recently. Though Jon Morosi of FOX Sports had tweeted yesterday that the club was interested in Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes, Bob Nightengale of USA Today said after the Span signing (via Twitter) that the organization “never considered” a long-term arrangement with either player before locking up Span.
Here’s more from the NL West:
- While all involved acknowledged that the MRI results led to Kenta Maeda signing a lighter-than-expected deal with the Dodgers, club president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman says that the righty is “totally asymptomatic,” as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter links). The concerning results were not discovered during a team physical after a deal, Shaikin adds, but were apparent from the medicals submitted by Maeda to all MLB teams — which may explain why his market was so quiet.
- The Rockies are “making a push” for free agent outfielder Gerardo Parra, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter, though they aren’t alone. He previously noted Colorado’s interest, which would seem to make the most sense if the club is prepared to ship out one of its current starting outfielders.
- Padres righty Colin Rea moved quickly to reach the majors last year, and MLB.com’s Corey Brock writes that he’s looking forward to competing for a rotation spot this spring. Rea, 25, did end up being shutdown with elbow/forearm soreness, though he says that was precautionary.
Dodgers Designate Ronald Torreyes For Assignment
The Dodgers announced that they have designated infielder Ronald Torreyes for assignment in order to clear a spot on their 40-man roster for their newest pitcher, right-hander Kenta Maeda.
Torreyes, who turned 23 in September, was traded to the Dodgers from the Blue Jays back in June, with cash considerations heading to Toronto in exchange. Torreyes got a brief cup of coffee with L.A. in 2015 — his Major League debut — collecting a pair of hits in six at-bats/eight plate appearances. Torreyes has seen most of his professional defensive work come at second base, though he does have significant experience at shortstop (144 games) and third base (65 games) as well. He’s also seen a bit of time in the corner outfield.
This past season, Torreyes batted .261/.308/.347 between Double-A and Triple-A across three organizations: the Astros, Blue Jays and Dodgers. While he’s never shown much pop, Torreyes has hit for average pretty consistently in the minors while displaying the aforementioned defensive versatility. He’s a lifetime .287/.330/.358 hitter at Triple-A and an overall .298/.353/.409 hitter in the minor leagues.
White Sox Claim Daniel Fields From Dodgers
The White Sox announced today that they have claimed outfielder Daniel Fields off waivers from the Dodgers. Fields was designated for assignment last week after the Dodgers finalized their signing of left-hander Scott Kazmir.
Fields, 25 next month, has spent the majority of the past two seasons at the Triple-A level, where he’s batted a combined .225/.312/.358 with 13 homers and 25 steals in 825 plate appearances. Baseball America has ranked him among the Tigers’ Top 30 prospects in each of the past six offseasons (26th last winter) since he received a $1.625MM bonus to forgo his college commitment to Michigan. Their latest scouting report noted that he has fringy arm strength and is a fringe-average runner, making him better suited to play left field than center field. He does have average raw power, per BA, but he’s also prone to swinging and missing.
Much like catcher Josmil Pinto, Fields is being bounced around the league quite a bit this winter. After spending 2015 with the Tigers, he’s been claimed by the Brewers, Dodgers and now White Sox, making them his fourth organization since season’s end. Considering the fact that the Sox have been linked to outfield upgrades, it makes sense to add Fields as a depth piece. However, the fact that Chicago may yet bring in a veteran outfielder also lends some uncertainty to Fields’ roster spot.
Dodgers Re-Sign Brandon Beachy
The Dodgers have officially struck a deal with free agent righty Brandon Beachy, as first reported by Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). The ICON Sports Management client will receive a $1.5MM guarantee, per the report, and can reach $4.25MM through incentives.
Beachy, 29, reached the majors only briefly last year with Los Angeles as he worked back from consecutive Tommy John surgeries. In his 48 2/3 Triple-A frames, which included ten starts, Beachy worked to a 3.51 ERA with 6.8 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9.
Before that, of course, Beachy had looked like a solid young rotation piece with the Braves. Over the 2010 through 2013 campaigns, he worked to a 3.23 ERA with 9.2 K.9 against 2.9 BB/9 across 267 2/3 innings in that span.
While the Dodgers did not receive a significant major league contribution from Beachy last year, the club obviously saw enough to motivate a return. And given that he was able to achieve a major league deal despite a less-than-complete comeback, it appears that some other clubs also saw some room to expect bigger things in 2016.
Jon Heyman (Twitter links) and SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link) provided details of the incentives clause.
West Notes: Reyes, Maeda, Kazmir, Fowler
An MLB source tells Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that there is still no timeline regarding possible disciplinary action against Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes. (Twitter link.) That appears to be due, at least in part, to the fact that the criminal proceedings have not been wrapped up. While the league’s domestic violence policy does not require criminal action for the commissioner to impose punishment, there is arguably less cause to move swiftly given that the allegations arose during the offseason.
- The Astros made a play for Japanese hurler Kenta Maeda before he reached agreement with the Dodgers, according to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. Houston remains an interesting potential factor in the free agent market. While the team probably does not need to make a splash, it is not difficult to imagine the team emerging as a dark horse for several players.
- Houston was also said to have had interest in retaining Scott Kazmir before he decided to join the Dodgers, and it appears they were far from alone in that regard. The veteran lefty said that a dozen clubs had at least some communication with his camp this winter, J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group tweets.
- The fact that free agent outfielder Dexter Fowler appeared at a Golden State Warriors game recently should not be interpreted as a sign he’s about to sign with the Giants, Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News tweets. He hears that “nothing is cooking” between Fowler and the club at this time. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Chris Haft looks at the fit of some of San Francisco’s possible outfield targets.
The Dollar Value Of Recent Opt-Out Clauses
Following a wave of multi-year club options attached to deals, players and their agents have begun to request and receive player options in recent years as well. David Price, Johnny Cueto, and Jason Heyward have each received them this winter, meaning that quantification of such deals is essential for careful team building. (Editor’s note: this article was written before the Dodgers reached an agreement with Scott Kazmir.) Everyone up to the commissioner has expressed concern that these “opt-out” clauses have been included in deals, and some feel teams simply should not give them. However, this is akin to saying that teams should not pay players above the league minimum salary—of course teams would like to do this, but you need to give players compensation to sign them. An opt-out is a way to lower the cost in dollars to the team, because the player will want more money otherwise.
Each of these three deals would be substantially more expensive without opt-out provisions—each opt-out clause is worth around $20MM, by my calculations. To test this, I looked at how a rough weighting of previous years’ WAR would affect a future projection, and compared this to how that projection would crystalize as it got closer. This led to an estimate that a very rough projection of future value 2-3 years in advance would change by about 1.0 WAR over the following 2-3 years. A more sophisticated system would probably change by about 0.7 WAR as it gets closer—and dollar value would probably change by about $7MM per year after accounting for overall uncertainty in salary levels. (The relationship between dollars and WAR utilized in this post is explained at this link.)
Given that potential level of variation, there are still a wide band of possibilities in terms of what a given player’s expected future value will be at the point of decision on an opt-out. But at base, an opt out is a binary choice: yes or no. Based on what we know now, and based on reasonable projections, we can estimate a given player’s future expected value at that point of decision by weighting different possible outcomes.
In other words, if Player X opts out, we can assume it is because his anticipated value at the point of that decision is higher than that which he would have earned through the remaining portion of the contract. But we don’t know exactly how much higher. So, to arrive at a value for the scenario in which a player does opt out, I’ve weighted all of those possibilities and reduced them to a single dollar value. The same holds true of the situations in which the player does not opt out.
We’ll get into each player’s situation further below, but this table shows the results of the exercise. (App users can click on this link to see the table image.)
David Price received a contract for seven years at $217MM, but it was really a three-year contract for $90MM with a player option of four years and $127MM. If Price only held teams to a three-year commitment, he would probably get close to $120MM—but this is not what he did. Instead, he will require $127MM for 2019-22, only on the condition that he looks to be worth less than that by then. Although $127MM is not a terrible estimate of his 2019-22 production as of January 2016, this value will probably change drastically by October 2018, one way or the other. If he does not opt out, he probably will have performed worse, and conditional on the assumption that he will not have opted out, I estimate his expected value for his 2019-22 seasons to be $80MM. If he does opt out, he probably will have performed better, and conditional on the assumption that he will have opted out, I estimate his expected value for those seasons to be $170MM. Given that this corresponds to roughly a 40% chance of opting out, his opt-out clause is worth about $17MM, meaning that his seven-year $217MM contract is roughly equivalent to a seven-year $234MM contract with no opt-out clause.
Johnny Cueto’s contract is somewhat trickier, but it essentially amounts to a deal of two years for $46MM, with a player option of four years and $84MM, followed by a club option of one year for $16MM. Cueto would probably be worth $17MM above his salary for 2016-17. But for 2018-21, he is likely to be worth $50MM if he does not opt out and $117MM if he does. With roughly even odds of opting out, this makes his opt-out worth about $17MM. While the club option for 2022 makes the deal somewhat more attractive for the Giants, the odds that he will be worth much more than this are low. Overall, Cueto’s six-year deal for $130MM would probably cost about $147MM with no opt-out clause.
Jason Heyward’s contract is even trickier, but it mostly boils down to a three-year deal for $78MM, followed by a five-year player option for $106MM—except that the first player option (if exercised) is only certain to include one more year for $20MM. That’s because there’s a vesting provision that, if triggered—by Heyward reaching 550 plate appearances in the season following the initial option decision—would give him yet another player option for four years and $86MM. (If he exercises the initial option but then doesn’t reach that PA threshold, then both sides would be stuck with the remaining four years of the contract.) Heyward’s value is further complicated by the fact that signing him required forfeiting a draft pick, which is worth around $9MM.
Although Heyward’s contract contains two opt-outs, it is not all that likely that he opts out after 2019 if he does not after 2018. Players’ values do change substantially, but he is likely to be either much more valuable than his five-year player option after 2018, or much less valuable. It is not that we expect his value to look similar after 2018 and 2019—it is that he will probably already be way above or way below the current expected value near $20MM per year, and is likely to remain way above or way below this line through 2019.
For the first three years of Heyward’s contract, I estimate that he is worth about $22MM more than his contract will pay him. With five years of player option, there is a wide range of potential values afterward. I estimate that he also has about even odds of opting out, but if he does not opt out then he is probably only worth $65MM, while if he does he would be worth $157MM. If he doesn’t opt out after 2018 and does after 2019, he is likely near the middle and the value of the second opt-out is small. The net effect is that his opt-out clauses are worth about $25MM, and he would probably have received $209MM for eight years instead of $184MM had no opt-out been included in the deal.
With values of $17MM for each of the two pitchers and $25MM for Heyward’s pair of opt-outs, these opt-outs help keep costs down for teams. While they contain more downside and less upside than typical free agent contracts, they cost less money as well. As teams move forward in this new market, they should be careful to properly consider the true cost of these player options. If teams are willing to expose themselves to some downside risk, they can lower the cost of acquiring elite players.
Quick Hits: Dodgers, Tigers, Indians
With Scott Kazmir joining some combination of Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-jin Ryu, Brett Anderson and Alex Wood (along with righty Kenta Maeda), the Dodgers‘ rotation is strongly left-handed, MLB.com’s Tracy Ringolsby notes. Historically, Ringolsby argues, there’s been little evidence that relying heavily on left-handed starters is a disadvantage. He notes that the 1965 Dodgers, for example, won the World Series with a team that got 112 starts from lefties. That’s not to say that having a lefty-heavy rotation creates an obvious advantage either, however — the 2004 Royals started lefties 108 times and lost 104 games that season. Here are more quick notes from around the game.
- The Tigers‘ lineup and bench, meanwhile, are heavily right-handed, but they’re designed that way on in order to give Brad Ausmus plenty of late-inning flexibility, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes. Many of the Tigers’ key offensive players (like Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez and Ian Kinsler, all of them righties who hit righties very well last year) are not candidates to be lifted for a pinch-hitter, regardless of the handedness of the pitcher. In fact, the only regular who might be a candidate to be lifted is lefty Anthony Gose, who could be removed if a left-handed reliever is on the hill. That means the Tigers simply don’t need many lefty hitters.
- Indians manager Terry Francona did not want the team to lose any of its best starting pitching, and the team isn’t close to a significant deal to add a hitter, writes Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer. They will, however, continue to look for relievers. Pluto also notes that the Indians preferred Mike Napoli (with whom they recently agreed to terms) at first base rather than fellow free agent Justin Morneau because Napoli is right-handed.
West Notes: Dodgers, Prospects, Closers, A’s
Let’s take a look in at the latest from the game’s western divisions:
- The Dodgers‘ front office has “underwhelmed” since taking command after the 2014 season, argues Jon Morosi of FOX Sports. In particular, he says, the team erred this offseason when it failed to meet the pre-offseason “expectations” that it would “re-sign Zack Greinke and lure David Price to L.A. with an astronomical offer, creating a rotation for the ages.” The FOX Sports reporter goes on to argue that letting Greinke go to the division-rival Diamondbacks — who swooped in at the last minute with an astronomical contract offer — sapped Los Angeles not only of half of its outstanding top-of-the-rotation duo but also the “swagger of outspending any team in the industry, on any player, whenever it fancied them.”
- With all due respect to Morosi, it seems rather odd to suggest there was ever any realistic likelihood of one club adding both of those top starters. And, frankly, I don’t think I’m alone in disagreeing with his assessment that it would have been wise to meet or exceed Arizona’s stunning offer to the 32-year-old Greinke, even for a team with L.A.’s deep pockets. After all, getting the best player by dangling the most money is easy enough to do; the real trick is knowing when to pull out of the bidding. Whether or not the D’Backs’ investment will pay off remains to be seen, but it is laden with risk, and no team operates without financial limitations. It bears noting, too, that it’s a bit premature to place final judgment on the roster construction efforts of the Friedman administration — or, for that matter, most other teams around the league — with such a large portion of the offseason business still left to be transacted. The proof will be in the pennants, but in assessing the Dodgers front office’s efforts to date, it’s worth remembering that the organization still has financial flexibility and extremely valuable young players to work with (both now and over the course of the season).
- As always, prospects make for powerful trade currency, and J.J. Cooper of Baseball America rates the youngsters that were dealt over the last couple of months. Teams from the game’s western divisions featured heavily. They combined to enrich the Braves‘ system with the three top names on the list (Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair, from the Diamondbacks, and Sean Newcomb, from the Angels). The Padres got two of the next three youngsters in Cooper’s ranking from the Red Sox in Javier Guerra and Manuel Margot. And there were others, too, as the Astros sent Mark Appel to the Phillies and four of the players involved in the three-team Todd Frazier deal either went to (Jose Peraza) or from (Frankie Montas, Trayce Thompson, Micah Johnson) the Dodgers.
- Of course, a good portion of the players just listed featured in the winter’s trade activity for closers, a topic recently taken up by BA’s John Manuel. While Craig Kimbrel and Ken Giles drew returns featuring some of those well-regarded young players, of course, Aroldis Chapman ended up bringing a much less hyped return due to the stunning domestic violence allegations that emerged. (It’s worth remembering, in assessing the Dodgers‘ efforts to date, that they were lined up to add the top-shelf reliever before the controversy erupted.) Manuel goes on to discuss the interesting question of the difficulty of rating and valuing premium relief prospects.
- The Athletics are in a nice position to roll the dice on an expensive but potentially undervalued asset this winter, per a recent SB Nation/Athletics Nation blog post, but it’s not clear whether there’s a worthwhile investment on the market. Previously, Oakland hit it big by landing Yoenis Cespedes for just $36MM over four years before the 2012 campaign. I certainly agree that there don’t appear to be any players with quite that profile, but it does seem plausible to think — and this is all my speculation — that the A’s could line up to bail out someone like Denard Span, Ian Desmond, Austin Jackson, or Ian Kennedy, should their markets collapse, or make an upside play for Cuban pitcher Yaisel Sierra.
International Notes: Kim, Maeda, Rodriguez, Sierra
New Orioles outfielder Hyun-soo Kim told reporters at a press conference in Seoul, South Korea that he wants to finish his career in the Major Leagues, as Jee-ho Yoo of Yonhap News writes. “I want to do well and retire in the U.S. before coming back to South Korea,” Kim said to the media. “If I return here before then, it would mean I’m no longer desirable to U.S. teams. I’d consider myself a loser if I take a U-turn to the Korean baseball league.” It’s understandable that Kim would set lofty expectations for himself after dominating the KBO over the past decade. In 10 professional seasons, Kim is a .318/.408/.488 hitter, and the 27-year-old enjoyed arguably his best season in 2015 when he belted a career-best 28 homers with the second-highest OPS (.979) of his career. Kim said he most looks forward to facing David Price — a pitcher he greatly respects — and is excited for the challenge of facing greater velocity throughout the league in American ball.
Here are a few more notes on the international market…
- Eric Longenhagen breaks down a number of international players in an excellent piece for ESPN (Insider subscription required and recommended), including right-hander Kenta Maeda, who reportedly reached an agreement with the Dodgers on New Year’s Eve. Per Longenhagen, Maeda has an 87-92 mph fastball that can scrape a bit higher on the radar gun at times, though as he notes, we’re unlikely to see more velocity out of Maeda now that he’s pitching every fifth day instead of once a week. Maeda also features a slider, changeup, cutter and curveball, with the former two pitches being above-average to plus and the latter two being fringe offerings at best. Longenhagen opines that Maeda has a fifth starter’s arsenal that will play up to a No. 4 type of starter due to his control and pitch sequencing. He adds that while durability may be a factor — Maeda has 1500 pro innings under his belt at just 28 years of age — the Dodgers have quite a bit of rotation depth to make it through the upcoming season (even if several others arms are question marks themselves).
- While Cuban shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez has not yet been declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, he’s “poised to sign” with Cincinnati upon clearance, per Longenhagen. Rodriguez probably won’t sign until after July 2, so his bonus will count against Cincinnati’s 2016-17 pool rather than its 2015-16 pool. The 21-year-old Rodriguez is said by Longenhagen to be a premier defender with enough speed to wreak havoc on the bases but little pop in his bat. Longenhagen writes that he could profile as a regular due to his glove and speed, though probably one that hits near the bottom of the order.
- Part of the reason for Yaisel Sierra‘s recent showcase was that he’s yet to receive a good offer from teams, Longenhagen hears. He calls Sierra a “good-bodied, two-pitch 24-year-old,” noting that many clubs see him as a middle reliever but some feel he could develop into a No. 4 type of arm with more reps. The best fit for Sierra, in Longenhagen’s estimation, is a rebuilding team that can afford to make a strong offer and patiently try to develop the hard-throwing righty as a starter.