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Quick Hits: Rangers, Price, Rodon, Cubs

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Nolan Ryan might be missing out on a really fun offseason.  Rival talent evaluators believe that the Rangers are going to be very aggressive this winter and pursue the likes of David Price, Masahiro Tanaka, and Brian McCann, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com (via Twitter).  Texas is eager to right the ship after missing the playoffs for the first time since 2009.  Here's more from around baseball..

  • The 2014 draft class has potential to be the best class since 2011, write John Manuel and Clint Longenecker of Baseball America.  Left-hander Carlos Rodon stands out as the top talent in the group while power pitcher Jeff Hoffman would be the No. 2 pick if the draft was today.
  • Top international prospects Eloy Jimenez and Gleyber Torres are pretty far along in their development considering that they're just 16, but they'll be working to adjust to the U.S. culturally, writes MLB.com's Carrie Muskat.  "They're not raw in their physical abilities, it's just being raw to the United States, how things are run," said Cubs Minor League hitting coordinator Anthony Iapoce. "As far as the way they play the game, they're pretty advanced for 16 years old. They're not raw as far as their tools. Their tools are in place."
  • Pirates first baseman Justin Morneau will look to sign with a winner this offseason, writes Sid Hartman of the Star-Tribune.  Because of that, a return to the Twins seems highly unlikely, unless he finds an extremely weak market for his services.

Rangers CEO Nolan Ryan To Retire

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Rangers CEO Nolan Ryan announced today that he will retire, effective October 31.  Ryan was named as the tenth president in club history in February 2008 and became CEO in March 2011.

“This is the right time for me to step down from my role of overseeing the Rangers organization,” said Ryan. “I am extremely proud of what this organization has accomplished. On the field, we have enjoyed great success at the major league level. The fans have supported us in record numbers the last two years and we have been able to upgrade the ballpark and enhance the in-game experience to reward that loyalty."

The legendary pitcher was said to be in a power struggle with GM Jon Daniels earlier this year and there was a great deal of speculation that Ryan would wind up as the odd man out.  Ryan butted heads with Daniels over staffing and player personnel decisions and appeared to have a smaller role with the club this year than he has in the past.  

AL East Notes: Rays, Orioles, Price, Dickerson, Hammel

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The Orioles need an ace and Rays David Price will likely be on the trade market this winter.  However, Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com doesn't see Tampa Bay even considering an intra-division trade and the O's might not have enough to land him.  More from the AL East..

  • Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com has a hard time imagining that the Rays would part with Price in a deal with Texas without the inclusion of Jurickson Profar.  Without the shortstop being involved, the Rangers would have to exhaust much of the top part of their farm system.  While sacrificing Profar would certainly sting, Texas has to be tempted by the idea of pairing Price with Yu Darvish at the top of their rotation. 
  • The Orioles have a lot of questions to address when it comes to their 40-man roster, including what to do with Chris Dickerson, writes Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com.  The outfielder was one of the final players cut during spring training and rejoined the big league club during the first week of the season.  
  • Jason Hammel made $6.75MM with the Orioles in 2013 and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com asks how much he is worth to the O's in 2014.  The right-hander had a strong 2012 season but followed it up with a 4.97 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in '13.

White Sox, Astros, Rangers Considered Front-Runners For Abreu

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Cuban slugger Jose Dariel Abreu's name continues to generate buzz. The latest, courtesy of ESPN's Buster Olney, is that the Rangers, White Sox and Astros have emerged as the front-runners to sign the 26-year-old, and his price tag is expected to be around $70MM (Twitter link).

In yesterday's free agent profile of Abreu, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes predicted that a six-year, $54MM contract would be required to sign him. Previous reports have indicated that he could cost as much as $60MM, but Olney's report pegs him significantly higher. Such a commitment would shatter the four-year, $36MM contract signed by Yoenis Cespedes and the seven-year, $42MM contract signed by Yasiel Puig. The success of that pairing could be a contributing factor to Abreu's lofty price tag.

As Tim noted in Abreu's profile, Abreu is viewed by many as an "all bat" player, with his first base defense being somewhat questionable. As such, it makes sense that three American League teams are seen as the favorites; each would have the luxury of giving him some at-bats at DH to mitigate that potential weakness.

In addition to Texas, Chicago and Houston, the Marlins are expected to be big players for Abreu. Earlier in the month, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro reported that the Fish are "all-in" on trying to sign Abreu, who, along with Jose Fernandez, would give Miami an appealing Cuban pairing to market to their fanbase.

Rangers Claim Edwar Cabrera From Rockies

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The Rangers have claimed Edwar Cabrera off waivers from the Rockies, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post (on Twitter).  Cabrera was expected to be removed from Colorado's 40-man roster this offseason.

Cabrera was sidelined all season with a shoulder injury.  The left-hander made two big league starts for the Rockies in 2012 but spent the rest of the season in the minors.  In 21 combined starts for the club's Triple-A and Double-A affiliates, Cabrera posted a 3.05 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.

The Rockies dropped another pitcher from the 40-man roster earlier today when they outrighted Manny Corpas. 

Free Agent Profile: Joe Nathan

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Only a legendary reliever could post a 1.39 ERA that isn't even his career-best.  Joe Nathan did just that for the Rangers in 2013, proving he's still elite at age 38.  After finishing 62 games in 2012 and 61 in '13, Nathan earned the right to void a $9MM club option and become a free agent, which he's expected to do.

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Strengths/Pros

With Mariano Rivera's retirement, Nathan ranks first on the active career saves leaderboard with 341.  That number ties him for tenth all-time with Rollie Fingers, and Nathan can reasonably ascend to sixth all-time by the end of a two-year contract.  He became a full-time reliever in 2003, posting a 2.24 ERA and 3.94 K/BB ratio in 671 1/3 innings since then.  Nathan, who spent the bulk of his career with the Twins, has racked up six All-Star nods.  He's saved at least 37 games in eight different seasons.  His career save percentage is 90.0, the best in baseball history for anyone with at least 200 saves.  Nathan has been one of the best relievers of the entire save era.

Nathan had Tommy John surgery in March 2010, and his final year with the Twins in '11 was a consolidation year as he returned from the procedure.  From 2012-13 for the Rangers, he posted a 2.09 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 6.3 H/9, and 0.63 HR/9 in 129 regular season innings.  He made the All-Star team both years, saving 80 games in total.  Among relievers with 100 innings during that time, his ERA ranks seventh.  Only four pitchers saved more games.

Outside of the elbow surgery, Nathan has rarely been injured, consistently pitching at least 64 innings per year.

Qualifying offers for relievers figure to remain rare, though Nathan has a chance at one.  Most likely, the Rangers won't risk a potential $14.1MM commitment and won't make the offer.

Weaknesses/Cons

Nathan will pitch at age 39 next year.  Outside of Rivera, who is in a class by himself, there have been only seven instances since 1980 of pitcher age 39 or older saving 30 games in a season.  Dennis Eckersley did it twice, and Trevor Hoffman did it three times.  I explained above that Nathan is a legendary closer in his own right, so he belongs with those names, but it will still be a risky multiyear commitment at significant dollars.  Agent Dave Pepe can counter the age concerns by pointing out that his client is a workout fanatic.

Nathan walked 3.1 batters per nine innings this year, his worst rate since '03.  He walked over four per nine in the second half, even with a strong September finish.  It might be nothing more than a blip, but the increased walk rate is worth considering.

Nathan's groundball rate this year was just 32%.  It may seem like nitpicking, as Nathan surrendered only two home runs in his 64 2/3 innings.  However, most relievers with a groundball rate similar to Nathan's allowed around one home run per nine innings, as Nathan did in 2012.  Home run prevention is one area in which we should not expect Nathan to be elite moving forward.

Personal

Nathan, his wife, and two children reside in Knoxville, Tennessee.  He graduated from SUNY-Stony Brook in '97 with a degree in business management.  Known for his intelligence, Nathan will receive an honorary doctorate from the university in December.  His hobbies include golf and playing the guitar.

Market

Though he committed two years to a 37-year-old Nathan coming off his worst season, Rangers GM Jon Daniels told reporters this month that giving multiple years to relievers has never been the team's preference, and the situation was different that offseason.  While a return to the Rangers can't be ruled out, it seems the Rangers might choose to allocate their resources toward other players and save some money in the ninth inning.  

Nathan projects as a closer on a large-market, win-now team.  The Yankees, Tigers, and perhaps the Angels might be the only teams that fit that criteria and aren't locked in at closer.  The Dodgers or Red Sox could work, but both clubs would have to demote relievers coming off dominant seasons.  The Orioles or Indians could enter the mix, non-tendering or trading Jim Johnson or Chris Perez given arbitration projections in the $11MM and $9MM ranges for their closers, respectively.  Pepe could face a situation similar to that of Rafael Soriano, whose market was limited by his price tag.  Eventually, Scott Boras leveraged his ownership connections to land two separate big-money mid-January contracts for Soriano, even though the closer came with a draft pick cost attached.

Teams seeking closers will have other options beyond Nathan, including free agents Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Edward Mujica, and Fernando Rodney.

Expected Contract

Nathan will be voiding his option in search of a multiyear deal, but three years is difficult to picture given his age.  Rivera's two-year, $30MM deal signed after the 2010 season is Nathan's ceiling.  Soriano's two-year, $28MM pact could be another point of reference, though that contract has heavy deferrals and a vesting option, and covers the pitcher's age 33-34 seasons.  Ultimately I think Nathan will sign a two-year, $26MM deal with a club option for 2016.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Jose Dariel Abreu About To Agree To $68MM Deal

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9:28pm: The Rangers will not sign Abreu, Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Passan tweets. The Astros and Red Sox likely will not, either. The White Sox still appear to be the favorites, although there might still be a "mystery team" involved.

7:29pm: Cuban first baseman Jose Dariel Abreu is "finalizing" a six-year, $68MM contract, likely with the White Sox, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal tweets. Abreu is represented by Praver Shapiro Sports Management. The deal would be the largest contract ever for an international free agent. It would easily surpass the six-year, $42MM deal Yasiel Puig received from the Dodgers last June.

This afternoon, it emerged that Abreu was deciding between the White Sox, Red Sox and Astros. The Rangers, Marlins and Giants had also shown interest.

Abreu, 26, defected from Cuba two months ago. He put up massive numbers in Cuba's Serie Nacional, winning over-the-top praise for his power and earning comparisons to Ryan Howard. Some experts have raised doubts about his bat speed, however, and his defense and athleticism are not highly regarded. Tim Dierkes' profile of Abreu predicted he would receive a six-year, $54MM contract.

Cafardo On Price, BoSox, Granderson, Loney, Dodgers

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While David Price has resigned himself to being traded, the Rays appear to be trying to figure out ways to make their ace the focal point of their pitching staff for many years to come, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Cafardo notes, however, the Rays' front office realizes it could be a losing battle, so a trade is likely with nearly half of baseball rumored to be interested in the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. "It's a big name, a big-time pitcher," one National League GM told Cafardo. "Even if you feel you don't need that level of pitcher, you look into it because he's so special and such a game changer. You do more than kick the tires. You try to make something happen, and I think you'll see teams that don't even need him step up." Here's more from Cafardo's column:

  • The Red Sox will likely trade one of their veteran starters to make room for their young arms. Cafardo suggests Jon Lester and Jake Peavy could be available while Ryan Dempster, John Lackey, and Felix Doubront are also vulnerable.
  • Jacoby Ellsbury is a perfect fit for the Mariners and Carlos Beltran likewise for the Orioles.
  • Curtis Granderson will likely receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees and there's a strong possibility he would take it because he could post his biggest numbers at Yankee Stadium.
  • The Dodgers will make Andre Ethier and/or Matt Kemp available this winter. Kemp will come with injury concerns, but that shouldn't prevent a team from taking a chance on his talent.
  • James Loney has rebuilt his value with a strong season in Tampa (.299/.348/.430 with a 2.1 oWAR in 158 games and 598 plate appearances). Loney could find a market with the Rangers, if the Rays don't re-sign the free agent first baseman.
  • Reds pitching coach Bryan Price appears to be the front-runner to replace Dusty Baker as manager in Cincinnati while Nationals bench coach Randy Knorr is in a strong position to take over from Davey Johnson, unless ownership wants a bigger name as its new manager.

Sherman’s Latest: Tanaka, Kuroda, Red Sox

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On Friday it was reported that the Yankees are expected to be serious players for Japanese ace Masahiro Tanaka. While many teams figure to be in the mix, the New York Post's Joel Sherman offered up a look at why the Yankees, specifically, will be motivated to sign Tanaka. Here are some of the highlights from Sherman's latest work…

  • The Yankees want to re-energize their fanbase and generate interest in buying tickets again, and adding Tanaka would allow them to do so without shattering the luxury tax threshold, as the posting fee wouldn't go against that figure. Sherman spoke with multiple executives who told him that each team is set to receive about $25MM from national TV revenue, and the Yankees also received a good chunk of money when News Corp. bought 49 percent of the YES Network. As Sherman puts it: "The Yanks have a big pile of newfound money to use lavishly for a posting bid."
  • Sherman also lists the Red Sox, Rangers, Giants, Diamondbacks and Blue Jays as suitors for Tanaka.
  • The Yankees may be extra-motivated to sign Tanaka due to the fact that many within the organization believe Hiroki Kuroda is leaning toward returning to Japan to finish his career.
  • In a separate piece, Sherman writes that Boston's decision on whether or not to tender qualifying offers to Jacoby Ellsbury, Stephen Drew, Mike Napoli and Jarrod Saltalamacchia will shape the market. Sherman spoke with four Major League executives — two from the AL and two from the NL — and asked about the Red Sox quartet's chances at receiving a qualifying offer. All four agreed that Ellsbury will receive one. Both AL execs and one of the NL expected Napoli to receive an offer, while just one of the NL execs thought that Drew and Saltalamacchia would get offers. Sherman offers his own expectation as well, predicting that all four will receive qualifying offers.

Rangers Re-Sign Jason Frasor

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The Rangers announced, via press release, that they have re-signed right-hander Jason Frasor to a one-year deal. The contract is reportedly worth $1.75MM and also includes incentives. The 36-year-old Frasor is represented by agent Dave Meier.

General manager Jon Daniels signed Frasor to a one-year, $1.5MM contract last January and was able to retain him at a bargain price despite a strong performance in 2013. Frasor pitched to a 2.57 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent ground-ball rate in his first season with the Rangers. While he did post an abnormally low BABIP (.250) and strand runners at a career-high rate (81.4 percent), FIP and SIERA both still liked Frasor at 3.37 and 3.44, respectively.

Frasor is just one piece of the team's bullpen puzzle this offseason, however. All-Star closer Joe Nathan has the ability to void the team's club option in search of a multiyear deal on the open market and is expected to do so. Daniels went on record recently as saying that the team's preference has never been to spend heavily on relief pitching, but he added that the team will continue to discuss retaining Nathan. Re-signing Frasor at a below-market rate could help to make that more feasible.

Should Nathan walk, Texas is well-equipped to absorb the blow with Frasor back in the fold. He will join setup man Tanner Scheppers and a healthier Joakim Soria at the back of the Ranger 'pen, as will lefties Robbie Ross and Neal Cotts, each of whom was excellent in 2013. Neftali Feliz figures to be back in the mix in 2014 as well, which should give the team flexibility in regards to determining the versatile Alexi Ogando's role.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News first reported the signing (on Twitter).

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