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Poll: Who Will Win The 2023 Home Run Derby?

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The 2023 All-Star festivities have already kicked off, with this past weekend featuring the Futures Game and the start of the MLB Draft. The draft continued today and tonight will feature the Home Run Derby, followed by more drafting and the All-Star game tomorrow. The derby is mostly about entertainment, though there’s also a $1MM prize on the line. That’s chump change to a lot of these players, but not all. The runner-up gets $500K and each other participant gets $150K. The player who hits the longest home run will get an extra $100K. It kicks off at 7pm Central time tonight.

The competition will proceed with head-to-head matchups in a bracket with these eight players, proceeding in order of their seeding: Luis Robert Jr., Pete Alonso, Mookie Betts, Adolis García, Randy Arozarena, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodríguez and Adley Rutschman. Defending champion Juan Soto isn’t participating this year, leaving the throne open for the taking. Let’s take a look at the matchups and some of their stats.

  • Luis Robert Jr. OF, White Sox: Robert is having his best season in many ways, including in the power department. He came into the year with 36 home runs in 222 games but already has 26 this season in just 89 contests. He’s hitting .271/.330/.569 overall for a wRC+ of 143. He has an average exit velocity of 89 mph, max of 113.6 mph and a 15.9% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the home run derby.
  • Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles: Rutschman debuted last year and hit 13 home runs in 113 games but is already up to 12 this year after just 86 contests. He’s hitting .273/.376/.423 on the season for a wRC+ of 125. He has an average exit velocity of 87.9 mph, max of 111.1 mph and a 6.7% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the home run derby.

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  • Adolis García, OF, Rangers: García broke out in 2021 with a 31-homer campaign, added another 27 last year and already has 23 here in 2023. Financially, he’s probably the player with the most to gain from the prize money. He’s yet to reach arbitration and that $1MM total is more than his annual salary. He got a $2.5MM bonus when signing with the Cardinals, but that was way back in 2017. Rutschman is the only other player in the field that is both pre-arb and hasn’t signed an extension, but he got a signing bonus of $8.1MM when signing in 2019. Garcia is hitting .261/.331/.517 this year for a wRC+ of 131. He’s hitting .273/.376/.423 on the whole for a wRC+ of 125. He has an average exit velocity of 92.2 mph, max of 115.1 mph and a 16.4% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the derby.
  • Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays: Arozarena vaulted himself onto the national stage with 10 home runs in the 2020 postseason. He followed that up by hitting 20 in each of the past two seasons and has another 16 here in 2023. He’s hitting .279/.388/.467 on the year for a wRC+ of 147. He has an average exit velocity of 92.9 mph, max of 114.3 mph and a 14.6% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the derby.

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  • Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets: Alonso is the most successful derby participant of the group, winning the competition back-to-back in 2019 and 2021. There was no derby in 2020 due to the pandemic. He attempted to win a third consecutive title last year but was defeated by J-Rod in the semis. He has 172 career home runs and is at 26 this year. He’s slashing .211/.310/.497 for a wRC+ of 123. He has an average exit velocity of 89.2 mph, max of 113.7 mph and a 14.8% barrel rate.
  • Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners: Rodríguez will be the hometown favorite with the festivities taking place in Seattle this year. As mentioned, he took out Alonso a year ago but fell to Juan Soto in the finals. He hit 28 home runs as a rookie last year and has added 13 more this year. He’s hitting .249/.310/.411 for a wRC+ of 105. He has an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph, max of 115.5 mph and a 9.8% barrel rate.

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  • Mookie Betts, IF/OF, Dodgers: Betts is 30 years old and this is his seventh time in the All-Star game but this will be his first derby. He has 239 career home runs, including 26 this year. He’s batting .276/.379/.586 overall for a wRC+ of 157. He has an average exit velocity of 92.5 mph, max of 110.1 mph and a 12.8% barrel rate.
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays: Guerrero put on a show in the 2019 contest, hitting 91 home runs overall but falling just short of Alonso in the final round. He has 117 homers in his career and 13 here in 2023. He’s slashing .274/.344/.443 for a wRC+ of 120. He has an average exit velocity of 94.3 mph, max of 116.7 mph and a 13.6% barrel rate.

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The winner of Robert/Rutschman will square off against the winner of García/Arozarena in the semis, while the winner of Alonso/Rodríguez will face the winner of Betts/Guerrero. Before we get to who you think will win, let’s start with who you want to win. (Link to poll for app users)

And who do you think will win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)

Rangers Interested In Lance Lynn

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Losing Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi for the season left the Rangers a bit thin in the rotation, and the club is reportedly looking to fill that void with a familiar face.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that Texas has a “strong interest in” right-hander Lance Lynn, who previously pitched in Arlington in 2019-20.  It isn’t clear if the Rangers and White Sox are anywhere close in trade talks or if negotiations are still in an early stage this far away from the trade deadline, but Nightengale writes that Chicago has “a high asking price” for the 36-year-old.

The 38-53 White Sox are on the fringes of contention even in the weak AL Central, so barring a major hot streak after the All-Star break, Chicago will certainly be looking to sell at the deadline.  As of mid-June, the club was apparently only considering moving players who will be free agents after the season, and Lynn fits that description.  This is the final guaranteed season of Lynn’s two-year/$38MM contract, and the Sox hold an $18MM club option ($1MM buyout) on his services for 2024.

Lynn is still owed roughly $8.3MM of his $18.5MM salary for 2023, so the White Sox could either absorb most of that remaining figure in order to get a better prospect return from another team, or an interested suitor agree to take on more salary instead of giving up any significant minor leaguers.  The Sox might see a Lynn deal as an opportunity simply to get some money off the books in order to reload for 2024, and the Rangers have been such aggressive spenders over the last two offseasons that it stands to reason that they won’t close the checkbook now that the team is leading the AL West.

Between Lynn’s contract situation and Chicago’s struggles, Lynn is a natural trade candidate, and was ranked 13th on MLBTR’s most recent list of the top trade deadline candidates.  Lucas Giolito, another White Sox starter heading for free agency, was ranked first, and Giolito’s trade status will surely factor into the Sox front office’s decision on Lynn.  With Giolito more of a valuable asset, the White Sox could look to a Giolito deal as their opportunity to add some valuable prospects to the farm system, whereas moving Lynn might be more of an aforementioned salary dump scenario.

Of course, the elephant in the room in any Lynn trade speculation is that in terms of bottom-line statistics, 2023 is the worst season of Lynn’s 12-year MLB career.  The right-hander has a 6.03 ERA over 103 innings, and no pitcher in baesball has allowed more earned runs (69) or home runs (22).  Lynn’s SIERA is a much more palatable 3.74, as it takes into consideration factors like a .328 BABIP and a low 64.1% strand rate, plus the fact that Lynn’s 27.9% strikeout rate is well above the league average.

Home runs have been the big issue in Lynn’s performance, as his 20% homer rate is almost double his career 10.1% figure from 2011-22.  While this is such an unusual outlier that some regression might be inevitable, it isn’t a total fluke, as batters are having much more success at maximizing their hard contact against Lynn’s pitches.  His 10.5% barrel rate is by far the highest of his career, as while Lynn’s ability to generate soft contact has been a bit inconsistent, his past barrel rate numbers had been reliably above average.

To this end, Lynn might not necessarily be the Rangers’ top choice for rotation help, even if they think he can improve with a change of scenery.  His previous tenure as a Ranger saw Lynn post two of the best seasons of his career, with a cumulative 3.57 ER over 292 1/3 innings in 2019-20, and the right-hander finished within the top six of AL Cy Young Award voting in both years.

Ironically, Lynn was then traded to the White Sox during the 2020-21 in something of the inverse of both teams’ current situation.  That offseason, the Rangers were in rebuild mode and the Sox felt they were on the verge of contending after completing a rebuild of their own.  Lynn pitched brilliantly in 2021 and helped Chicago win the AL Central, though the White Sox then fell to the Astros in the ALDS.

Texas traded Lynn just a few days after Chris Young was hired as the team’s general manager, even though Jon Daniels was still calling the shots in the Rangers’ front office as the president of baseball operations.  With Young now heading into his first deadline in charge of the Rangers’ baseball ops department, he is surely looking to add the final touches to a Texas team that looks like a legitimate contender.

If Lynn can regain his old form, that would go a long way to reinforcing a rotation that has still been quite solid even without deGrom or Odorizzi.  Since it doesn’t seem like Lynn’s club option will be exercised no matter which team is on come August 2, the Rangers could view him as a pure rental for the stretch run.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Free Agent Power Rankings and Aroldis Chapman to the Rangers

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Check out our past episodes!

  • The Angels Trade for Infielders, Indecisive NL Central Teams and Aaron Judge’s Toe – listen here
  • Exciting Youth Movements in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, Bad Central Divisions and the Dodgers Want Pitching – listen here
  • Marcus Stroman Lobbies for Extension, Mets’ Woes and Astros Seeking Bats – listen here

Rangers Acquire Aroldis Chapman

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The Rangers made a significant bullpen addition Friday evening, announcing the acquisition of Aroldis Chapman from the Royals. Left-hander Cole Ragans and rookie ball outfielder Roni Cabrera are going to Kansas City.

Chapman had a strong few months in Royal blue. Kansas City signed the seven-time All-Star to a $3.75MM free agent guarantee, buying low after a rough final season in the Bronx. Chapman had posted a 4.46 ERA in his final year with the Yankees and was left off their playoff roster after missing a team workout. He returned to quality high-leverage work after the change of scenery.

The hard-throwing southpaw owns a 2.45 ERA over 29 1/3 innings in 31 appearances. He’s striking out an eye-popping 43.4% of opponents, his highest rate since 2020. Among relievers with 20+ frames, only Orioles closer Félix Bautista is fanning hitters at a better clip. Chapman ranks eighth among that group in whiffs, picking up swinging strikes on 17.8% of his offerings.

Chapman doesn’t throw quite as hard as he had during his days with the Reds, but he’s still the hardest-throwing southpaw in the sport. He’s averaging 99.4 MPH on his four-seam fastball and throwing his slider at an 88.2 MPH clip. Both are up a couple ticks relative to last season’s level, explaining his bounceback in whiffs. Chapman has overpowered hitters from both sides of the plate, holding lefties to a .211 batting average without an extra-base hit and right-handers to a .146 average and .183 slugging mark.

The sole concern with Chapman’s production this season is inconsistent strike-throwing. He has walked 16.4% of opponents, a rate topped by only five relievers with at least 20 innings. It has been a boom-or-bust profile, with nearly three-fifths of hitters going down on strikes or taking a free pass.

Texas rolls the dice on the scattershot control to inject some needed swing-and-miss to the relief corps. Rangers relievers enter play Friday ranked 19th in MLB with a 23.1% strikeout percentage. They’re 24th with a 4.37 ERA. Texas ranks second in rotation ERA and leads the majors in run-scoring. The bullpen stood out as the obvious priority for GM Chris Young and his staff entering trade season, and they’ve started by landing one of the best relievers available.

Chapman joins Will Smith, Josh Sborz and Brock Burke in the high-leverage mix. Sborz and Smith have been excellent, while rookie Grant Anderson is off to a nice start to his MLB career. There’s still room for another addition at the back end, particularly a right-hander.

Texas will certainly further add to the roster over the coming weeks. As an impending free agent reliever, Chapman was never going to require them to dip deep into the farm system. He’s also an affordable pickup; the Rangers assume just under $2MM in remaining salary.

They’ll add a little more in incentives, as Chapman will receive $312,500 for every fifth appearance between 35 and 55 outings. Triggering all those bonuses, as he’s on pace to do, would tack on another $1.563MM. He’d land a matching $312,500 for every fourth game finished between 12 and 40; he has finished nine games thus far.

Those are relatively small margins for an aggressive Texas club. The Rangers are spending just under $201MM on player payroll, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re up to around $224MM in luxury tax obligations, placing them roughly $9MM south of the $233MM base threshold. The Rangers have never paid the competitive balance tax, but owner Ray Davis has signed off on aggressive spending sprees in each of the past two winters to quickly push the club to the top of the AL West.

The Royals are at the opposite end of the spectrum, one of a handful of teams that are certain to miss the postseason. Kansas City has shown a willingness to sell off pieces early if they’re out of contention. They dealt Carlos Santana to the Mariners around this time last season. Chapman was rumored to be available by early June.

In Ragans, Kansas City got a pitcher they like enough to jump on a Chapman deal a few weeks early. The 25-year-old is an upper level arm who could factor into the rotation this year. The 30th overall pick in the 2016 draft, he has appeared in the big leagues in each of the past two seasons.

Ragans made nine starts last year, working to a 4.95 ERA in 40 innings. He has pitched in relief this season, tallying 24 1/3 frames of 5.92 ERA ball out of the bullpen. Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweets that K.C. will send Ragans to Triple-A to build back up as a starter with an eye towards a second-half return to the big leagues.

The 6’4″ southpaw has yet to find MLB success. Alongside the mediocre ERA, he has a below-average 18.2% strikeout rate and slightly elevated 10.7% walk percentage. He owns a solid 3.64 ERA in five minor league seasons, though, striking out 29.6% of opponents along the way. His fastball has averaged a little north of 96 MPH in short stints — well above last year’s 92.1 MPH average speed out of the rotation — and prospect evaluators have long credited him with a potential plus changeup.

Whether Ragans will stick as a starter remains to be seen. Kansas City can give him some runway. The Royals’ rotation ranks 27th with a 5.43 ERA. Ragans is in his first of three minor league option seasons and won’t be eligible for arbitration until the 2025-26 offseason at the earliest. If he develops as hoped, he could work as an affordable back-end starter at Kauffman Stadium in the near future.

Cabrera is much further off. A native of the Dominican Republic, he’s a right-handed hitting outfielder who has spent the past two seasons in the Dominican Summer League. He turns 18 next month and won’t be eligible for the Rule 5 draft until after the 2026 season. Keith Law of the Athletic writes that Cabrera has some power potential and projects as a corner outfielder.

This evening’s swap is the start of what’ll likely be multiple moves of this ilk from both teams. Texas could add more bullpen help and perhaps augment the corner outfield or rotation depth. Kansas City figures to listen to offers on closer Scott Barlow and could take calls on rentals like Zack Greinke and Matt Duffy.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rangers Reinstate Glenn Otto, Brad Miller

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The Rangers announced they’ve reinstated pitcher Glenn Otto and utilityman Brad Miller from the injured list. John King, Yerry Rodríguez and Sam Huff were all optioned to Triple-A Round Rock, the latter move clearing active roster space for newly-acquired Aroldis Chapman.

Otto returns from the 60-day injured list, reclaiming a 40-man roster spot. Texas has had a vacancy in that regard since designating Sandy León for assignment a few weeks ago. He’s in line for his season debut, missing the bulk of the first half with a lat strain.

The right-hander figures to assume a multi-inning relief role for skipper Bruce Bochy. He was a starter last year, opening all 27 of his outings and working 135 2/3 innings. Otto posted a 4.64 ERA with middling strikeout and walk rates. With the Rangers overhauling their rotation last winter, he got pushed out of the top five. He’s looked great on a rehab stint with Round Rock, working to a 14:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and allowing only three runs in 10 innings.

Miller has been down for a month with a right oblique strain. The left-handed hitter has a .208/.304/.333 line in 56 trips to the plate on the season. He’ll return to a multi-positional role off the bench.

MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Starters

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Major League Baseball announced the starting lineups for the 2023 All-Star Game this evening. This year’s All-Star Game will take place at Seattle’s T-Mobile Park on July 11. The starting pitchers and reserves will be announced at a later date.

American League

National League

* Currently on injured list with sprained toe

Rangers Have Shown Interest In Andrew McCutchen

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The Rangers have reached out to the Pirates about a potential Andrew McCutchen trade, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com, but the Bucs aren’t open to such scenarios at this time. As Morosi observes, the Rangers have a deep lineup but have received poor production from the designated hitter spot in the order. The veteran McCutchen, hitting .271/.394/.431 with nine homers and nine steals on the season, would clearly represent a boost.

That said, there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of a potential McCutchen trade coming together. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wrote at the time of McCutchen’s reunion in with the Pirates that the franchise icon returned to Pittsburgh with the intent of finishing out his career there; the Pirates didn’t make the signing with the intent of flipping him at the deadline, and Mackey reported in January that the two parties even discussed McCutchen’s desire to stay put in Pittsburgh while negotiating the deal. McCutchen told Mackey exactly one month ago that he wants to win in Pittsburgh and is not interest in playing elsewhere. “I don’t want to continue my career on another team,” McCutchen said on May 26.

It’s certainly possible that if the Pirates are buried in the standings as the deadline looms, McCutchen could have a change of heart and inform the front office he’d like to be moved to a contender. That seems unlikely based on his recent comments, however. And, even after their recent freefall, the Pirates are only five and a half games back in a dismal NL Central division.

That relative proximity to contending in the division matters, too. It was barely more than a week ago that Pirates president Travis Williams publicly indicated that the team’s hope was to return to the postseason as soon as this year. If the Bucs find themselves with a shot at doing so in the run-up to the trade deadline, Williams noted that GM Ben Cherington would have ownership support to add pieces, even if it meant further boosting the payroll. The Pirates weren’t quite so far into their staggering 1-12 swoon at that point, but again, the feeble context of their division could yet leave them with a realistic chance at a playoff berth — particularly with more than a month until the deadline.

All of that context notwithstanding, it’s at least of some note that the Rangers are perusing the market for potential upgrades. Interest in McCutchen is only logical for them. He’s an accomplished veteran hitter who’s well liked and who has played under current skipper Bruce Bochy. It stands to reason that Bochy enjoyed having McCutchen in the lineup and in the clubhouse during the outfielder’s brief time with the Giants.

Further, as Morosi rightly points out, the Rangers simply haven’t gotten much out of the DH spot in the lineup this year. Texas designated hitters are batting .223/.313/.377 on the season. The resulting 94 wRC+ ranks 19th in the Majors. That production (or lack thereof) has come from a combination of 10 players. Robbie Grossman leads the Rangers with 88 plate appearances as their DH, and he’s hit extremely well in that time. Grossman, though, is also seeing regular time in the outfield. The Rangers have cycled him, Brad Miller, Mitch Garver, Ezequiel Duran, Corey Seager, Jonah Heim, Adolis Garcia, Josh H. Smith and Sam Huff through the DH spot this year, ostensibly using it more as a means of affording occasional rest to regulars rather than dedicating one slugger to the position.

Acquiring any other full-time DH would mark a departure from that strategy. McCutchen is just one of several options to fill that role — seemingly not even a likely one — and since it’s the DH spot in question, the position of a potential trade target could be largely immaterial.

Broadly speaking, it’s still early in the summer for trades of significance to come together. Modern front offices tend to wait until the final few days before the deadline to act with much aggression, and the expansion of the playoff field seems like it’ll only further fuel that trait. Only three teams in baseball currently find themselves facing a deficit of nine games or greater in the postseason hunt: the Royals, A’s and Rockies. And while those teams surely know the direction they’ll take at the deadline, even they might prefer to wait and see if there are more motivated buyers at the deadline. Many teams — the Pirates included — are currently on the fence about their deadline trajectory but might be more willing to part with young talent closer to Aug. 1.

Rangers Place Jose Leclerc On 15-Day Injured List

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The Rangers have placed right-hander Jose Leclerc on the 15-day injured list due to a sprained right ankle, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link).  The IL placement is retroactive to June 21.  Right-hander Yerry Rodriguez is getting the call from Triple-A to take Leclerc’s spot on the active roster.

Leclerc has a 3.42 ERA over 23 2/3 innings this season, on the strength of some very strong soft-contact numbers, an above-average 25.3% strikeout rate, and an elite 34.3% whiff rate.  However, Leclerc’s work has been undermined by his 15.2% walk rate, which ranks among the worst in the league.  The metrics more or less match up with Leclerc’s numbers over his past full Major League seasons, with the lack of control limiting his ability to be a truly reliable high-leverage arm in the Texas bullpen.  As such, Will Smith took over closing duties from Leclerc earlier this season.

The Rangers signed Leclerc to a four-year, $14.75MM extension in March 2019 in the hopes that he would develop into a top-tier bullpen arm, and that extension got off to a bad start given that Leclerc missed almost all of the 2020 and 2021 seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Texas has two club option years attached to the deal, beginning with a $6MM option ($750K buyout) on Leclerc’s services for the 2024 season.  For now, the team’s only concern is on getting the righty back on the mound, as there isn’t yet any indication if Leclerc could be facing a minimal absence or if his sprain is a longer-term concern.

After struggling earlier in the season, the Rangers’ bullpen has stabilized to some extent, even though the relief corps is still a relative weak link on a team that has been otherwise firing on all cylinders.  With Texas leading the AL West and looking like strong contenders to return to the postseason, relief pitching figured to be at the top of the Rangers’ wishlist heading into the trade deadline even prior to Leclerc’s injury.

Yoshi Tsutsugo Opts Out Of Deal With Rangers

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Corner infielder Yoshi Tsutsugo opted out of a minor league contract with the Rangers, tweets Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Texas allowed him to hit free agency rather than add him to the MLB roster.

The Rangers took a non-roster flier on Tsutsugo over the offseason. He didn’t get a big league look, instead spending the entire season with Triple-A Round Rock. He hit .249/.380/.432 over 280 trips to the plate. The left-handed hitter drew free passes at a huge 17.3% clip but went down on strikes over 28% of the time. He connected on six home runs, nine doubles and a pair of triples — fine but unexceptional power production for a bat-first player in the Pacific Coast League.

Tsutsugo will now look elsewhere in search of an MLB opportunity for what’d be the fourth consecutive season. He struggled early upon signing with the Rays and fared even worse in a cup of coffee with the Dodgers. Tsutsugo caught fire late in the 2021 season with the Pirates, though, popping eight homers in only 43 games.

Pittsburgh re-signed him in hopes he’d approximate that production over a full schedule. That didn’t happen, as he hit .171/.249/.229 in 50 contests last year before the Bucs released him. A late-season Triple-A run with the Blue Jays didn’t result in another MLB look. Tsutsugo heads back to the market with a career .197/.291/.339 line over 182 big league contests.

Tsutsugo has primarily played first base and designated hitter at the major league level. The Rays gave him a few looks at third base back in 2020. He didn’t see any time at the hot corner from 2021-22 but started 13 games there with Round Rock (in addition to 22 starts at first base and 16 outings as the DH).

MLBTR Trade Rumors Podcast: Exciting Youth Movements in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, Bad Central Divisions and the Dodgers Want Pitching

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

  • the Pirates promote Henry Davis (1:20)
  • the scorching-hot Reds designate Wil Myers for assignment (7:35)
  • Guardians promote Gavin Williams (10:40)
  • White Sox want to sell rental pieces only (16:20)
  • Dodgers need pitching (19:15)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Do you think the Cubs will deal Christopher Morel at the deadline? (22:45)
  • What are the chances the Diamondbacks promote Jordan Lawlar later this season? (25:50)
  • If Rangers make a blockbuster trade who would you think it would be? Obviously bullpen is a need but what is something blockbuster worthy? (29:45)

Check out our past episodes!

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