The Opener

Three things to watch around the baseball world as we head towards the weekend….

1. Non-tender deadline day:

One of the busiest days of the offseason calendar, today at 7pm CT is the deadline for teams to issue contracts to their arbitration-eligible players.  Several dozen new free agents will be created today as clubs pass on retaining some of their arb-eligibles, and we’re in for a flurry of other related moves — trades to clear roster space, and at least a few contract agreements with players and teams avoiding a future arbitration hearing.

Matt Swartz’s annual projection model for MLB Trade Rumors gives some idea about what these arb-eligible players are set to earn next season, and naturally several of the names on that list have already reached agreements, been released, designated for assignment, or traded in the six weeks since Matt originally published his projections.  For an idea of which players might be a little nervous today, here is MLBTR’s list of potential non-tender candidates.

2. The Braves and White Sox swing a deal:

In case you missed it late last night, the Braves and White Sox got things rolling on non-tender day moves by announcing an intriguing five-for-one trade.  Aaron Bummer is now part of the Atlanta bullpen, while the Sox picked up five players — right-hander Michael Soroka, left-hander Jared Shuster, infielders Nicky Lopez and Braden Shewmake and minor league right-hander Riley Gowens.  In one fell swoop, Chicago added some badly-needed depth to its rotation and middle infield, while moving a reliever who has a notable injury and who posted a 6.79 ERA over 58 1/3 innings in 2023.  That said, Bummer’s advanced metrics (such as a 3.72 SIERA) were far more favorable to the southpaw’s performance, and the Braves clearly wanted to do some roster-pruning in advance of today’s non-tender deadline.  Lopez (projected $3.9MM) and Soroka ($3MM) are both eligible for arbitration, so Atlanta managed to get some value for the two players rather than non-tendering them for nothing.

3. Ohtani’s adorable dog:

If Shohei Ohtani wasn’t enough of a viral sensation already, he gained even more buzz during last night’s announcement of the AL MVP Award.  Winning unanimous MVP honors for the second time in your career is one thing, but when you win the award with your best canine friend by your side for a high-five (high-paw?), the internet is going to take notice.  Somewhere, front office staffers are quickly googling lists of the best dog parks in their cities, searching for any sort of edge in Ohtani’s free agent sweepstakes.

As the early part of MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things to keep an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today…

1. MVP awards to be announced:

MLB’s awards season will conclude today with the reveal of the AL and NL’s Most Valuable Player award winners at 5pm CT this evening on MLB Network. In the American League, voting is expected to be dominated by Shohei Ohtani, the two-way superstar who won the award in 2021 and fell just short of repeating in 2022 with a second-place finish. Now perhaps the greatest free agent in MLB history, Ohtani slashed .304/.412/.654 — good for an MLB-leading 180 wRC+ — while leading the AL with 44 homers at the plate. On the mound, Ohtani was limited to just 23 starts due to injury but posted a 3.14 ERA with a whopping 31.5% strikeout rate over 132 innings of work. Though Ohtani’s excellence takes nothing away from Rangers up-the-middle stars Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, the other two finalists for the award, it would be a shock if Ohtani didn’t take home the trophy in the AL.

The NL award is more competitive. The favorite is Braves right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. who slashed an incredible .337/.416/.596 (170 wRC+) in 735 trips to the plate while crushing 41 home runs and swiping 73 bases. That performance gave him just the fifth 40-40 season in MLB history but also made him the inaugural member of the 40-50, 40-60, and 40-70 clubs. Still, Dodgers superstar Mookie Betts warrants plenty of consideration in his own right. Betts slashed .307/.408/.579 with a 167 wRC+, but perhaps the most interesting piece of his MVP case is his unusual versatility. Despite having just 228 innings of work in the infield at the big league level in his career entering the season (all at second base), Betts logged considerable time at both the keystone and shortstop this season, appearing in 86 games on the infield dirt while starting there in 74 of them. The third finalist, Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman, was incredible in his own right as he posted a 20/20 season while hitting a whopping 59 doubles, but appears destined for third place due to the excellence of both Betts and Acuna this season.

2. Owners vote on A’s relocation:

MLB’s offseason Owners Meetings are underway, and one major order of business is expected to be conducted today. Per The Athletic’s Evan Drellich, owners are expected to vote on the A’s plan to relocate from Oakland to Las Vegas today. That vote is expected to go smoothly, with the A’s proposal easily clearing the 75% threshold necessary for relocation to be approved. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has a news conference scheduled later today during which he’s likely to discuss the outcome of the vote and the A’s relocation plan. Importantly, one part of the A’s plan that is still unclear is where they will play following the expiration of their lease at the Coliseum after 2024, with their stadium in Las Vegas expected to be ready for the 2028 season. Some possibilities that have been floated include a short-term extension of the Coliseum lease, using their Triple-A affiliate’s stadium in Las Vegas, or perhaps even sharing Oracle Park with the Giants.

3. Will the trade market heat up prior to tomorrow’s deadline?

The early parts of the offseason have been fairly quiet this November, with the biggest trade of the offseason so far being an early November swap that sent outfielder Mark Canha from Milwaukee to Detroit. That being said, it’s possible that tomorrow’s non-tender deadline could spur some activity over the next day and a half. Last night saw the Brewers ship infielder Abraham Toro, who is projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to make $1.3MM in arbitration this offseason, to Oakland. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco compiled a list of potential non-tender candidates late last month, any of whom could at least feasibly be shopped over the next day if their club is considering a non-tender.

As the early days of MLB’s offseason continue, here are three things for MLBTR readers to look out for today…

1. Cy Young Awards to be announced:

MLB’s awards season continues this evening as the results of Cy Young award voting in both leagues are set to be announced at 5pm CT tonight on MLB Network. In the American League, Yankees right-hander Gerrit Cole is widely considered the favorite for the award after leading the AL in ERA (2.63), Games Started (33), Innings Pitched (209), ERA+ (165), and WHIP (0.981). Twins veteran Sonny Gray, who posted a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings across 32 starts this season, and Blue Jays righty Kevin Gausman, who led the AL with 237 strikeouts to go along with his 3.16 ERA and 2.97 FIP in 185 innings of work over 31 starts, are the other finalists in the AL.

The race for the NL award is somewhat murkier. Left-hander Blake Snell, who pitched for the Padres in 2023 before hitting the open market earlier this month, is considered by most to be the favorite for the award. Snell led the majors with an excellent 2.25 ERA in 180 innings of work across 32 starts, with an excellent 182 ERA+ that also led the majors. That said, Snell’s eye-popping 13.3% walk rate and ten starts where he failed to record an out in the sixth inning are both blemishes that could dissuade some voters. Diamondbacks right-hander Zac Gallen, who helped lead Arizona to the World Series this year with a 3.47 ERA and 3.26 FIP across 34 starts and 210 innings of work, and Giants righty Logan Webb, who led the majors with 216 innings of work across 33 starts and posted an NL-best 3.6% walk rate, are the other finalists in the NL this year.

2. Will Quantrill reach free agency?

The Guardians designated right-hander Cal Quantrill for assignment yesterday rather than pay him a raise in arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a 2024 salary of $6.6MM. It was a somewhat unexpected move; while Quantrill struggled badly in 2023 amid shoulder issues, he combined for a 3.16 ERA and 4.10 FIP across 336 innings of work across the 2021-22 campaigns while swinging between the rotation and the bullpen. Now the Guardians will have a final opportunity to attempt to work out a trade involving Quantrill or expose him to outright waivers.

That being said, it’s possible the widespread need for starting pitching around the league and the increase to the price of pitching in recent years could spur additional interest in Quantrill’s services. It would hardly be a shock if a club preferred two years of team control over Quantrill at an arbitration-level rate to the pricier commitments bounce-back starters like Noah Syndergaard (one year, $13MM) and Sean Manaea (two years, $25MM) received on the open market last offseason.

3. MLBTR Chat today:

As we prepare for one of the first major deadlines of the offseason, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Rule 5 draft protection deadline:

This evening marks one of several deadlines in the early part of the offseason: the deadline for protecting prospects from next month’s Rule 5 draft. Though the Rule 5 draft won’t take place until the Winter Meetings, today at 5pm CT is the deadline by which teams must add prospects they wish to protect from the draft to their 40-man rosters. The deadline typically sparks plenty of movement as teams look to clear space on their 40-man rosters for prospects in need of protections, and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggests that this year will be no different, reporting that trade talks are picking up all around baseball in advance of today’s deadline.

2. Qualifying Offer deadline:

The Rule 5 draft protection deadline isn’t the only deadline scheduled for today, however. At 3pm CT this afternoon, the seven players who received qualifying offers earlier in the offseason will have to decide whether to accept the one-year, $20.35MM offer or reject it and test the open market. All seven players — Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Matt Chapman, Josh Hader, and Sonny Gray — are expected to decline the QO and test free agency. Players that do so will attached to draft pick compensation, providing their previous team with an outgoing draft pick should they sign elsewhere while forcing their new club to give up draft capital and international bonus pool space. The details on what teams stand to lose or gain from the signing of qualified free agents were covered by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk last month.

3. Manager of the Year announced:

Awards season around MLB continues at 5pm CT this evening with the AL and NL Manager of the Year awards set to be announced. In the AL, Bruce Bochy of the Rangers, Kevin Cash of the Rays, and Brandon Hyde of the Orioles are the three finalists for the award. Cash skippered the Rays to a 99-win season that saw them win their first 13 games of the season, tying the modern record, while Hyde and Bochy both guided their clubs to a postseason appearance despite the Orioles and Rangers both entering the season expected to be little more than fringe contenders. It would be Hyde’s first time winning the award, while Cash has won the award twice previously. Bochy, meanwhile, has never won in the AL but won in the NL with the Padres back in 1996.

Meanwhile, the NL features a relatively unusual bit of drama; alongside Brian Snitker of the Braves and Skip Schumaker of the Marlins, Craig Counsell is nominated for the award for his work with the Brewers this season despite having departed the organization for the division rival Cubs last week. For all his accolades as one of the league’s finest managers, Counsell has never won a Manager of the Year award. Schumaker, of course, hasn’t either as a rookie skipper who just concluded his first season in the role. Snitker, on the other hand, won the award previously in 2018. His work with the Braves that year led him to finish just ahead of Counsell, who was the runner-up for the award.

Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye out for on Monday…

1. Rookie of the Year winners announced:

Rookie of the Year winners in each league will be announced tonight at 6pm ET. The American League’s three finalists in 2023 include Orioles third baseman/shortstop Gunnar Henderson, Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee and Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas. Henderson, 22, smacked 28 home runs and posted a .255/.325/.489 batting line with 10 steals, 100 runs scored and 82 knocked in. Bibee seized a spot in the Cleveland rotation, making 25 starts and posting a 2.98 ERA, 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate over the life of 142 innings. Casas shook off a slow start to finish out the year at .263/.367/.490 with 24 home runs, 21 doubles, 66 runs and 65 RBIs.

In the National League, D-backs outfielder Corbin Carroll, Dodgers outfielder James Outman and Mets righty Kodai Senga are finalists. Carroll erupted with a .285/.362/.506 batting line, 25 home runs and 54 steals. He became the first rookie in MLB history to deliver a 20-50 season. Outman slashed .248/.353/.437 with 23 homers, 16 steals and standout glovework Senga’s 29 starts of 2.98 ERA ball and impressive 29.1% strikeout rate over 166 1/3 innings firmly cemented his role in the Mets’ rotation and more than justified their original five-year, $75MM investment in the former NPB star.

2. Korean Series ends:

The LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization won their first Korean Series title in 29 years over the weekend, bringing an end to the 2023 KBO season. That’ll be significant for MLB fans, as with the KBO season now in the books, it won’t be long before we begin to see traction on the international free agent front. The general expectation is that star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee will be posted for MLB teams, likely some time after Thanksgiving. There could well be other Korean-born players interested in a move to MLB, and there will certainly be plenty of former big leaguers eyeing a return to North American ball.

Former first-round pick and Nationals top prospect Erick Fedde likely headlines that list after pitching to a flat 2.00 ERA with 29.5% strikeout rate, 4.9% walk rate and 70% ground-ball rate in 180 1/3 innings for the NC Dinos. The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty profiled Fedde’s changes to his pitch repertoire and to his offseason program back in September. On the flipside of things, expect several fringe big leaguers — as Fedde was during his time in MLB — to make the jump to the KBO as they seek both notable seven-figure paydays and perhaps changes of scenery that could improve their stock and pave the road back to a big league roster.

3. MLBTR Free Agent Prediction contest picks due TONIGHT:

This year’s MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest is open through 11pm CT tonight. If you haven’t made your picks yet or want to make some changes to the slate you submitted, you can do so before that time! The contest is free to enter, and the top three finishers will receive cash prizes of $500, $300 and $100, respectively. The top 15 finishers will also receive a free yearlong subscription to our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription package, which in addition to ad-free viewing also comes with access to weekly email content, a weekly subscriber-only chat, access to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker and Agency Database, and more. Once the contest is closed, we’ll launch a leaderboard so you can see how you’re faring both against other entrants and the MLBTR staff! You can read more about the contest here and click here to enter/edit your picks!

As the early days of the offseason continue, here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on…

1. When will Yamamoto be posted?

Earlier this week, the Orix Buffaloes announced shortly after their loss in Game 7 of the Japan Series to the Hanshin Tigers that they have approved the posting of star right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With the club’s approval secured, the final step before Yamamoto is officially a free agent available to MLB clubs is for him to be officially posted, after which point he will have a 45-day window during which he can sign with any club in the majors. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi recently suggested that Yamamoto’s posting window is expected to open in the near future, likely sometime next week.

Yamamoto, of course, is perhaps the most exciting pitching free agent on the market. Set to hit free agency at just 25 years old, he’s dominated NPB hitters to the tune of a 1.42 ERA in 557 2/3 innings of work the past three seasons. While scouts and teams are often uncertain about how foreign stars will adjust to stateside ball, Yamamoto is something of an exception to that; he’s widely regarded as a potentially ace-caliber arm and a clear front of the rotation starter for an MLB club. That combination of youth and talent secured Yamamoto the #3 spot on MLBTR’s annual Top-50 free agents list, where we projected him for a nine-year, $225MM deal.

2. MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest:

This year’s MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest will remain open through Monday evening at 11pm CT. If you haven’t made your picks yet but still want to enter, you can take some time this weekend to do so! The contest is free to enter, and the top three finishers will receive cash prizes of $500, $300 and $100, respectively. The top 15 finishers will also receive a free yearlong subscription to our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription package, which in addition to ad-free viewing also comes with access to weekly email content, a weekly subscriber-only chat, access to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker and Agency Database, and more. Once the contest is closed, we’ll launch a leaderboard so you can see how you’re faring both against other entrants and the MLBTR staff! You can read more about the contest here and click here to enter your picks!

3. MLBTR Chat today:

With the offseason ramping up, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will host a chat with readers today at 1pm CT to tackle questions about free agency, trades and more. You can click here to ask a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to participate live and to read a transcript after the chat is complete.

As the offseason continues to kick into gear, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Silver Sluggers to be announced:

The Silver Slugger award winners for the 2023 season are set to be announced this evening. Rangers first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez, Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge, Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez, and Astros DH Yordan Alvarez will all have the opportunity to win the award in back-to-back seasons after winning the award in 2022 and being finalists this season. In the National League, Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado, Phillies shortstop Trea Turner, Dodgers outfielder Mookie Betts, Phillies outfielder Kyle Schwarber, Padres outfielder Juan Soto, and Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto will each have the chance to repeat as winners. The awards will be announced at 5pm CT this evening on MLB Network.

2. How will Harper’s position change impact the Phillies?

Phillies superstar Bryce Harper is set to take over first base for the club on a regular basis, per comments from president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski yesterday, with Schwarber set to continue in his second-half role as the club’s everyday DH in 2024. The confirmation regarding how the Phillies will fill out their lineup card next year raises questions about how the club will look to supplement the lineup headed into next season. Not only does the decision seemingly close the door on a reunion with longtime first baseman Rhys Hoskins, but it leaves both Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas likely to play on an everyday basis next year barring an addition to the club’s outfield mix. Should the Phillies look to add a bat to the outfield corners, the class is headlined by Teoscar Hernandez, with the likes of Tommy Pham, Eddie Rosario, and Adam Duvall among the other options available.

3. Which managerial seat will be filled next?

The Angels filled their managerial vacancy yesterday by hiring Ron Washington to replace Phil Nevin in the dugout. It’ll be the first time Washington, 71, has managed since departing Texas back in 2014. With the Angels now having joined the Giants, Mets, Guardians, and Cubs in hiring new managers this offseason, three vacancies remain around baseball in Houston, San Diego, and Milwaukee.

All three remaining vacancies are fairly recent; Dusty Baker retired only after the Astros lost Game 7 of the ALCS last month, while the Padres and Brewers are replacing managers Bob Melvin and Craig Counsell who were hired away by their division rival Giants and Cubs, respectively. The Padres appear to have made the most progress in their search, with internal candidates Ryan Flaherty and Mike Shildt widely seen as favorites for the role. That being said, the club is reportedly pondering a run at recently-dismissed Cubs manager David Ross for the role. If the Padres delay their decision to meet with and consider Ross, could the Astros or Brewers wind up the next team off the board?