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Blue Jays Option Anthony Kay, Sean Reid-Foley

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The Blue Jays have optioned hurlers Anthony Kay and Sean Reid-Foley, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter. That provides some clarity to the team’s pitching plans.

Both of these pitchers featured among the conceivable possibilities for a rotation slot. But the upgraded Toronto staff doesn’t have many openings and there are quite a few candidates. Trent Thornton and Shun Yamaguchi appear to be the front-runners.

It’s still possible that either or both will end up seeing action in the majors. They’ve each done so already, though obviously neither was able to sew up a long-term spot.

Kay, 25 tomorrow, came over in the Marcus Stroman trade. The southpaw had a few ups and downs but mostly logged good results last year in the upper minors. In 133 2/3 total frames, he worked to a 2.96 ERA with 9.1 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9.

Reid-Foley is a bit younger. He has consistently produced strong strikeout numbers but hasn’t yet managed to tamp down on the free passes. In 120 2/3 innings last year at the Triple-A and MLB levels, he produced 133 strikeouts and 86 walks.

Blue Jays Select Joe Panik

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The Blue Jays have selected the contract of veteran infielder Joe Panik, as first indicated on the league transactions log at MLB.com. Right-hander Yennsy Diaz was placed on the 60-day injured list in a corresponding roster move. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweets that the move is indeed official, adding that Panik had an opt-out clause in his contract, which necessitated the transaction. It’s also likely that with the league instructing teams to send non-40-man players home (if they’re safely able to do so), the Jays wanted to act quickly to ensure that Panik is able to remain with the group.

The 29-year-old Panik was the Giants’ first-round pick back in 2011 and ascended to the role of everyday second baseman in San Francisco by 2014. He held that role late into the 2019 season, but the Giants, amid a rebuild phase and hoping to evaluate a younger wave of long-term pieces, designated Panik for assignment in early August and released him shortly thereafter. He quickly signed on with the Mets and finished out the year in a part-time role there.

This past season marked a second consecutive rough year at the plate for Panik, who slashed a combined .249/.311/.334 in 883 plate appearance from 2018-19. That’s a far cry from the quality .282/.345/.408 (105 OPS+) that Panik posted from 2014-17 — a stretch wherein he made the 2015 All-Star Game and won a Gold Glove in 2016. Injuries have surely played a part in his downturn. Since 2015, a stress fracture in his back, multiple bouts of concussion symptoms, thumb surgery and a groin strain have all sent Panik to the injured list. He avoided the IL in 2019, although the litany of injuries certainly could have had a lingering effect on his play.

Prior to the league’s coronavirus shutdown, though, Panik looked quite comfortable in camp with the Jays. It’s only 10 games and 26 plate appearances, but Panik went 8-for-21 with a pair of homers, a triple and more walks (four) than strikeouts (three). It’s difficult to glean too much from that limited showing, but the Blue Jays were impressed enough to add Panik to the roster, thus locking in a $2.85MM base salary for the veteran infielder.

A bench role may be likelier for Panik than a starting role, as Cavan Biggio’s youth and his .364 on-base percentage in 100 big league games last season will probably get him the nod in that regard. Biggio hit .234/.364/.429 with 16 home runs, 17 doubles, a pair of triples and 14 steals in 430 plate appearances as a rookie, and the Blue Jays will surely want to give him a large role to see if he can solidify himself as the primary second baseman for years to come. But Panik is plenty capable of playing both up-the-middle positions — he was drafted as a shortstop but moved to second base due to Brandon Crawford’s presence in San Francisco — and could conceivably be asked to be a backup option at third base as well.

As for the 23-year-old Diaz, it’s not yet clear what his actual injury is. The Jays haven’t made a formal announcement of the roster move yet, however, so details will surely emerge when they publicly acknowledge the transaction. Diaz ranks 26th among Jays farmhands at FanGraphs and 29th at MLB.com. He spent the 2019 season with their Double-A club, pitching to a 3.74 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.75 HR/9 and a 40 percent ground-ball rate before appearing in a single big league game last September.

Matt Harvey Tried Out For Blue Jays

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There hasn’t been much said about former ace Matt Harvey since the right-hander became a free agent after last season. But he did draw somewhat recent interest from the Blue Jays, with whom he tried out “several weeks” back, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network on this week’s Big Time Baseball podcast.  Although the Jays “seriously” considered signing the longtime starter as a reliever, per Heyman, they ultimately passed.

This is the first time Harvey, once an All-Star and a high-profile Met, has come up on MLBTR’s pages since last August. The Dark Knight is one of the most accomplished players left in free agency, but injuries have helped take a sledgehammer to what once looked like an amazing career in the making. Harvey posted sub-3.00 ERAs in each season from 2013-15, though he got off to a slow start in 2016 and then underwent the dreaded thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. He simply hasn’t been the same since that year.

Dating back to 2017, Harvey has pitched to a 5.89 ERA/5.46 FIP with 6.94 K/9 and 3.31 BB/9 over 307 1/3 innings. He enjoyed something of a bounce-back showing with the Reds after they acquired him from the Mets in 2018, earning an $11MM guarantee with the Angels going into the ensuing campaign. However, Harvey’s production was so poor as a member of the pitching-needy Halos that they cut the cord on him last July. Shortly after that, the soon-to-be 31-year-old Harvey joined the division-rival Athletics on a minor league contract, but he didn’t make it back to the majors with the organization.

Blue Jays Notes: Extension Talks, Pre-Arb Salaries, Yamaguchi

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Let’s check in on the latest regarding the Blue Jays, all coming via Sportsnet …

  • President Mark Shapiro covered a variety of matters in a recent chat with the Writers Bloc show (audio link). Of particular interest was his discussion of the team’s potential young extension targets. Shapiro obviously wasn’t willing to address specifics, but did indicate that the team is inclined to reach deals where possible. On the possibility of extensions, he said fans can “assume we’ve explored it or are exploring it with every one of our young players that we have a strong belief are going to be good players and here for a long time.” Actually getting a deal done is obviously a different story; there, Shapiro spoke of negotiations as “sharing risk” for the future.
  • Most of the team’s top potential extension targets have little MLB service time, so they’re in the class of players that have no effective control over their salaries. As Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports, the Jays were able to get agreement on 2020 earnings with all of their pre-arbitration players, rather than being forced to renew certain players who weren’t pleased with what was offered. (Contract renewals are a symbolic gesture but can impact a team’s relationship with a player. We discussed this in a recent MLBTR YouTube video.) While there has been some grumbling around the game, the Jays seem to have earned plaudits for enunciating and sharing a complete list of their salary offers with an explanation for the formula utilized in reaching them. You can find all of the specific Jays salaries in the above link. Budding stars Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio each landed in the $570K to $580k range. The MLB minimum for the coming season is $563,500.
  • Newly inked righty Shun Yamaguchi isn’t making things easy on his new club — in a good way. As Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes, the former Japanese star has worked through some difficulties to turn in a strong recent outing. As we explored recently, he’s one of many conceivable candidates for the fifth starter job. Nicholson-Smith writes that Trent Thornton remains the front-runner, but the Jays will surely be glad to maintain some competition and feel good about the status of their depth. Yamaguchi, 32, will slide into the pen if he doesn’t crack the rotation.

Blue Jays Made Offer To Mike Moustakas

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Mike Moustakas came off the market when he signed a surprisingly large contract (four years, $64MM) with the Reds in December. It turns out that the Blue Jays were among the runners-up for Moustakas, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who tweets that they made him a three-year, $30MM offer. The Reds obviously blew that proposal out of the water, however, and the Jays pivoted to a much cheaper corner infielder Travis Shaw (one year, $4MM). A third baseman for most of his career, Moustakas is set to handle second in Cincinnati. That position is spoken for in Toronto (Cavan Biggio), as is third (Vladimir Guerrero Jr.), so it seems likely Moustakas would have worked at 1B extensively for the first time in his career had the club won the bidding for him. Instead, the Blue Jays will hope for a bounce-back season from Shaw, who was teammates with Moustakas in Milwaukee last year.

Rafael Dolis Out At Least One Week After Appendix Removal

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  • Blue Jays right-hander Rafael Dolis will miss at least a week of action after having his appendix removed (MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson was among those to report the news).  Dolis will be re-evaluated after that first week, and it is possible the righty might not be ready for Opening Day.  After last pitching in the majors in 2013, Dolis revived his career with four impressive seasons in Japan, and signed a one-year, Major League contract with Toronto this winter.

8 AL East Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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In case you missed previous installments in this series, we looked at AL West hitters and pitchers seeking bounce-back seasons in 2020. We’ll now turn our attention to the AL East and eight notable position players looking for better things this year…

Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox:

Benintendi, then a premier prospect, made his debut in 2016. He has been fairly valuable since then, especially in 2018 (.290/.366/.465, 4.4 fWAR), but his production took a tumble last season. Despite a 10 percent jump in hard-hit rate (via FanGraphs), Benintendi managed a so-so .266/.343/.431 line with 13 homers and 10 steals in 615 plate appearances. A 6 percent spike in strikeout rate and a 4 percent jump in swinging-strike rate certainly didn’t help matters. Of course, Benintendi logged similar bottom-line production in 2017, so maybe this is just who he is. But the Red Sox are surely hoping for production along the lines of 2018 (or better than that), especially considering their offense has lost former centerpiece Mookie Betts.

Mike Zunino, C, Rays:

After an up-and-down tenure with the Mariners, the former No. 3 overall pick joined the Rays in a headline-grabbing trade in November 2018. But Year 1 as a Ray couldn’t have gone much worse offensively for Zunino, who batted a miserable .165/.232/.312 with nine home runs and a typically high strikeout percentage (33.9) over 289 plate appearances. Zunino did put up more encouraging Statcast numbers (.271 expected weighted on-base average, compared to a .235 real wOBA), but he didn’t exactly stand out in that regard. If there’s a saving grace, it’s that Zunino performed well behind the plate, throwing out 39 percent of would-be base thieves and finishing near the top of the league in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric. Considering his defensive abilities, Zunino doesn’t have to thrive at the plate to provide value to his team, but he does have to be a lot better than he was last season.

Joey Wendle, INF/OF, Rays:

Wendle’s terrific first season with the Rays in 2018 seemed to fly under the radar, but he wasn’t able to build on it last year. With a .231/.293/.340 line over 263 PA, his OPS plummeted more than 150 points, while his hard-hit percentage fell 5 percent, per FanGraphs. In fairness to Wendle, though, his season got off to a terrible start because of injuries. He suffered a strained left hamstring and a broken right wrist in April.

Jose Martinez, 1B/OF, Rays:

Following an offseason trade, Martinez is a Ray now after he spent the first four seasons of his MLB career in St. Louis. Martinez was typically an outstanding hitter with defensive defects as a Cardinal, but his effectiveness at the plate waned to a significant degree last season. In his final campaign with the Cards, the 31-year-old recorded a .269/.340/.410 line – good for a league-average wRC+ of 101 (down from 127 in ’18) – across 373 PA. Compared to the previous season, his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and strikeout percentage each made noticeable changes for the worse. Nevertheless, the Rays are banking on Martinez’s strong track record winning out in 2020.

Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH, Yankees:

Stanton’s on this list for injury – not performance – reasons. The former NL MVP continued to handle opposing pitchers last year (.288/.403/.492), but he took just 72 trips to the plate on account of various injuries. If healthy, there’s not much doubt Stanton will hit in 2020. Problem is that he’s dealing with yet another injury – a Grade 1 right calf strain – that could shelve him for the start of the season.

Miguel Andujar, 3B, Yankees:

Andujar joined Stanton as one of the many Yankees whom injuries cut down in 2019. Shoulder troubles held the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up to 12 games in his sophomore season, during which Gio Urshela usurped his starting job at third base. The 25-year-old Andujar now figures to see time at third, first, outfield and DH, but considering his limitations as a fielder, his value will be tied to his bat. If Andujar can return to being the type of offensive player he was two years ago, when he slashed .297/.328/.527 with 76 extra-base hits in 606 PA, it’ll be a boon for the Yankees.

Travis Shaw, 1B/3B, Blue Jays:

Shaw combined for 7.1 fWAR with the Brewers from 2017-18, but they non-tendered him after last season, leading him to take a one-year, $4MM offer from the Blue Jays. Despite his recent success, it was understandable that the Brewers bailed on Shaw, who endured an abysmal 2019. A 30-home run hitter in his two best campaigns, the 29-year-old totaled only seven in 270 PA last season and batted .157/.281/.270. He struck out 33 percent of the time along the way, representing nearly a 15 percent increase from the previous year, and saw his ISO drop more than 100 points. If you’re looking for at least a couple reasons for hope, Statcast indicates that the average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage Shaw recorded in 2019 weren’t much different than in previous years.

Randal Grichuk, OF, Blue Jays:

The Blue Jays showed their faith in Grichuk when they extended him on a four-year, $47MM guarantee last April, but they received little bang for their buck in 2019. Although he did mash 31 homers, Grichuk concluded with a below-average .232/.280/.457 line in 628 PA. At this point, it’s probably fair to expect inconsistency from the OBP-challenged Grichuk, who has thrice been a two- to three-WAR player but has also put up a couple disappointing seasons (including last year) since he debuted in 2014.

Camp Battles: Blue Jays’ Fifth Starter

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The Blue Jays finally made some rotation investments this winter. Most of the money went to Hyun-jin Ryu, but Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson (the latter acquired via trade) each also enjoy sizable guarantees that lock them into the starting staff. With a $4.2MM arbitration deal, Matt Shoemaker is also slated for a rotation spot.

So what of all the arms the Jays have been accumulating of late? The club has loaded its roster with options. They’re now engaged in a sort of battle royale in camp, all striving to impress the Toronto brain trust. The fifth rotation spot is certainly the top prize to be claimed. But the bullpen mix is anything but settled, offering additional paths to the majors. And the Jays will also be lining up their depth chart in the upper minors. 40-man roster pressures could force the club to drop a few players, so the competitors face downside scenarios as well.

Here’s the slate of candidates …

  • Trent Thornton: The 26-year-old held down a rotation spot last year, ultimately throwing 154 1/3 innings of 4.84 ERA ball in his debut campaign. He entered camp as the odds-on favorite and is probably the sturdiest candidate with a solid-but-not-exceptional minor-league track record, varied pitch mix, and full season of durable MLB work on his resume.
  • Shun Yamaguchi: The long-time Japanese star will be on the MLB roster in some manner after signing a two-year deal. He was a highly effective starter in Nippon Professional Baseball just last year, but also has spent a lot of time working at the back of a bullpen.
  • Anthony Kay: The well-regarded lefty had a nice showing at Triple-A last year after coming over via mid-season trade and was rewarded with a late-season promotion. His full 2019 totals from the upper minors — 133 2/3 innings, 2.96 ERA, 9.1 K/9 vs. 3.8 BB/9 — suggest that Kay is just about ready for a full big-league audition.
  • Jacob Waguespack: Yet another recent acquisition who got his first shot in the majors last year with the Jays, Waguespack had to be pleased with his initial showing (4.38 ERA, 63:29 K/BB in 78 innings). His deep pitch mix and general track record present a profile roughly similar to that of Thornton.
  • T.J. Zeuch: Yep, Zeuch also just saw his first MLB action last year, though he’s a homegrown product and only threw 22 2/3 frames in the majors. The sinkerballer spent most of the year at Triple-A, where he worked to a 3.69 ERA in 78 frames while generating a 57.1% groundball rate but just 4.5 K/9. Zeuch did show that he can get some swings and misses (9.9%) in the majors, it’s fair to note.
  • Sean Reid-Foley: The former second-round draft pick has struck out 10.1 batters per nine in his minor-league career. Unfortunately, he has never really sorted out his walk issues, having dished out 86 free passes in 120 2/3 total innings last year. Reid-Foley spent most of 2019 at Triple-A, where he coughed up 6.47 earned runs per nine over 89 frames.
  • Ryan Borucki: Still just 25 years of age, Borucki had a nice 2018 big-league debut. But after 17 starts of 3.87 ERA ball in his rookie campaign, the southpaw stumbled through an injury-limited 2019 season. Borucki surely would’ve been given every chance to make a run at a rotation job in camp but has unfortunately been halted by ongoing elbow issues. He’ll need to get healthy to put himself back on the map.
  • Wilmer Font: Font is something of a grizzled journeyman already at 29 years of age. He has already appeared with seven MLB clubs, including five in the past two seasons. Font started 14 games last year for the Jays but threw only 39 1/3 innings in his 23 total appearances in Toronto. While he has plenty of experience in the minors as a true starter, Font likely factors as a possible opener or spot start candidate rather than a true competitor for the fifth rotation opening.
  • Yennsy Diaz: Diaz was rewarded with one MLB appearance last year after a strong season at Double-A (144 1/3 innings, 3.74 ERA, 7.2 K/9 vs. 3.3 BB/9). The 23-year-old would need to wow in camp. He’s likelier to continue developing in the minors.
  • Tom Hatch, Hector Perez, Patrick Murphy, Julian Merryweather: These four righties all hold 40-man roster spots and have yet to debut in the majors. The first three haven’t yet reached Triple-A, while Merryweather is coming off of an injury riddled 2019 season.
  • Nate Pearson: Soon enough. Other non-roster players in camp include MLB veterans Phillippe Aumont and A.J. Cole, though neither seems likely to have a realistic shot at a rotation job out of the gates.

MLBTR Poll: Vlad Jr.’s Second Season

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Blue Jays third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. debuted in the major leagues to great fanfare in 2019. The son of a Hall of Famer, Guerrero earned his first promotion toward the end of April – only one month after his 20th birthday. He joined the Blue Jays despite limited experience in Triple-A Buffalo, where he garnered just 162 plate appearances from 2018-19. The sample size may have been small, but Guerrero nonetheless ran roughshod over the highest level of the minors, thereby convincing the Blue Jays he was ready for prime time.

Thanks in part to his stellar production at lower levels, Guerrero was considered an all-world prospect at the time of his promotion. Indeed, four different outlets (Baseball America, MLBPipeline.com, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus) ranked him as the game’s premier farmhand at the time. Guerrero ultimately didn’t make an enormous impact as a rookie, hitting .272/.339/.433 with 15 home runs in 514 trips to the plate, but that production’s still nothing to scoff at for a first-year man who was among the youngest players in the league last season.

Set to turn 21 on March 16, Guerrero figures to be one of the sport’s most fascinating sophomores in 2020, and the revamped Jays are no doubt hoping he’ll help key a resurgence for the club. For what it’s worth, the big-bodied Guerrero has come to camp in better shape this spring, as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet wrote last month. The slimmer Guerrero’s now aiming to increase his launch angle, Andrew Stoeten of The Athletic recently relayed.

Guerrero’s mean launch angle checked in at just 6.7 degrees last year, while his expected weighted on-base average (.330, compared to a .329 real wOBA), average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage all hung around the league’s 50th percentile, per Statcast. However, heading into Year 2, projection systems are bullish. ZiPS, for instance, calls for a .285/.349/.497 line (121 wRC+) with 25 home runs in 571 trips to the plate. Those aren’t superstar-level numbers, but they would represent a nice step forward for such a young hitter.

All that said, let’s hear from you on how you expect Vlad Jr. to perform at the plate this season. Where will his OPS land? How many homers will he hit? (Poll links for app users)

Blue Jays Focused On “Development” Of Nate Pearson

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It’s never wise to get too excited over a few spring outings. But already hyped Blue Jays prospect Nate Pearson has been awfully impressive, racking up six strikeouts in three hitless innings while pumping triple-digit heat. Suppose he keeps this up?

Toronto GM Ross Atkins faced the question today: is there any chance that Pearson shows so much that he cracks the Opening Day roster? As Arden Zwelling of the Sportsnet.ca tweets, Atkins didn’t exactly offer a direct answer to that question … though his words certainly suggested that the club is not likely to deviate from its pre-spring plan.

Per Atkins, the Jays “are entirely focused on [Pearson’s] development. And a big part of his development is ensuring he has ever chance to increase that workload in a logical and smart way.”

That’s a nod to the fact that Pearson, one of the game’s very best pitching prospects, has still not thrown more than 101 2/3 innings in a professional campaign owing to an injury-busted 2018 season. And he only made it to Triple-A for three starts.

The Atkins comment may be oblique, but it seems there’s only one reasonable interpretation. If Pearson still requires “development” and a planned-out workload expansion, he’s not going to be considered for an Opening Day gig. As Zwelling wrote recently, the original plan was for Pearson to open at Triple-A. Nothing about what Atkins said today suggests any other outcome.

We have seen teams take differing approaches to situations such as this. Quite a few organizations have declined to change their plans even after watching a breakout Spring Training from a top prospect, resisting the allure in favor of service-time and other considerations. See, e.g., the Cubs and Kris Bryant. But that’s not an inevitable outcome. Last season, the Padres decided to carry Fernando Tatis Jr. north out of camp. Seven years ago, the dearly departed Jose Fernandez forced the Marlins’ hands.

In this case, fans that pine for a bold decision from the Blue Jays front office are almost certain to be disappointed — at least in the short run. The Jays did make some long-awaited rotation additions over the winter, so it’s not as if there’s a glaring hole in the staff at the moment. If circumstances warrant, it stands to reason that Pearson could push into the MLB picture later this year. In the meantime, Toronto fans will have to hope that the patience pays off — all while enjoying some of the other intriguing young players on the roster.

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