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GM Trade History: Blue Jays’ Ross Atkins

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It’s not always fair to judge baseball operations leaders for free agent signings.  In many cases, the biggest contracts are negotiated to varying extents by ownership.  The same can hold true of major extensions.  It’s just tough to know from the outside.

There’s obviously involvement from above in trade scenarios as well.  But, when it comes to exchanging rights to some players for others, it stands to reason the role of the general manager is all the more clear.

In any event, for what it’s worth, it seemed an opportune moment to take a look back at the trade track records of some of the general managers around the game. We’ve already covered the Diamondbacks’ Mike Hazen, former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, the Brewers’ David Stearns, the Angels’ Billy Eppler, the Rockies’ Jeff Bridich, the White Sox’ Rick Hahn, the Tigers’ Al Avila, the Braves’ Alex Anthopoulos, and the Padres’ A.J. Preller. We’ll now turn our focus to Ross Atkins of the Blue Jays, who followed Jays president Mark Shapiro in moving to the Toronto organization from Cleveland. (Deals are in chronological order and exclude minor moves; full details at transaction link).

2015-16 Offseason

2016 Season

2017 Season

2017-18 Offseason

2018 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

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Rookie Radar: AL East

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We’ve already run through the NL West, the NL East, the NL Central, the AL West and the AL Central in our look at some of the up-and-coming talent that figures to step into the Major League spotlight whenever play resumes. Let’s take a run through our final division, the American League East….

Blue Jays

Nate Pearson and his 100 mph heater are close to the big leagues, and the Jays hope their 2017 first-rounder will cement himself as a controllable top-of-the-rotation complement to Hyun-Jin Ryu. If multiple rotation needs arise, they can turn to southpaw Anthony Kay, whom they acquired in last year’s Marcus Stroman trade with the Mets. Right-hander T.J. Zeuch made his big league debut in ’19, and righty Tom Hatch, who came over from the Cubs in the David Phelps swap, dominated in six Double-A starts with his new org.

As for position players, there aren’t as many names to monitor. Former top prospect Anthony Alford is out of minor league options and is facing an uphill battle as he vies for playing time in a crowded mix. Reese McGuire should be the backup to Danny Jansen.

In the bullpen, Yennsy Diaz landed on the injured list prior to the shutdown due to a lat strain, but he’s already made his MLB debut and now has additional time to rehab. Julian Merryweather, the righty received when Toronto traded Josh Donaldson to Cleveland, is on the mend from Tommy John surgery and could make an impact in relief.

Orioles

Ryan Mountcastle, the Orioles’ 2015 first-rounder, has made it clear throughout his minor league tenure that he’s a force at the plate, but he’s also something of a man without a defensive home. Questions about his glove at multiple positions abound, but he slashed .312/.344/.527 in 127 Triple-A games as a 22-year-old.

Baltimore will get a second look at Austin Hays, who soared through the minors to make his MLB debut barely a year after being drafted in 2016. Injuries tanked Hays’ 2018 season, but he had a huge September with the O’s in 2019 and should get a look as the everyday center fielder. Outfielder Ryan McKenna and infielder Rylan Bannon could make their debuts in 2020, too. Bannon enjoyed a quality 120 wRC+ at both Double-A and a small sample in Triple-A last year.

The Orioles’ rotation looks astonishingly thin, and at a certain point the O’s would likely prefer to get a look at younger options as opposed to journeymen like Asher Wojciechowski, Wade LeBlanc and Tommy Milone. That could mean any of Dean Kremer , Keegan Akin, Michael Baumann or Zac Lowther will be tabbed for a big league debut.

Former top prospect Hunter Harvey could eventually enter the closer mix if the team trades Mychal Givens and if his litany of injuries are in the past. Dillon Tate, the twice-traded No. 4 overall pick from 2015, debuted last year and will get a chance to establish himself. Any of Kremer, Akin, Baumann or Lowther could land here as well.

Rays

Japanese slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo will be among the more interesting rookies to watch throughout MLB. Over his final four seasons in NPB, Tsutsugo hit .293/.402/.574 with 139 home runs, 116 doubles, five triples, a 15.1 percent walk rate and a 20.4 percent strikeout rate. He’ll see time at the infield corners, in left field and at DH. Also in the outfield will be Randy Arozarena, whom the Cardinals sent to Tampa Bay in the surprising swap that shipped top prospect Matthew Liberatore to St. Louis. He’s not regarded as an elite prospect, but it’s hard to ignore a .344/.431/.571 slash between Double-A and Triple-A.

Two-way player Brendan McKay should make an impact at the plate and on the mound. The former No. 3 pick could eventually be joined in the rotation by fellow premier prospect Brent Honeywell, who’s on his way back from last March’s Tommy John procedure. Both are top 100 arms. Look for hard-throwing right-hander Peter Fairbanks to log some innings in the ’pen.

Tampa Bay’s comically deep collection of infielders will make it tough to break onto the roster, but any of Vidal Brujan, Kevin Padlo, Lucius Fox, Taylor Walls or newly acquired Esteban Quiroz could push for a spot. Of the bunch, Brujan is the most highly regarded, ranking comfortably inside most top 100 lists.

Red Sox

Boston’s infield is mostly set outside of second base, which could make it tough for their top options to break into the Majors. Corner infielder Bobby Dalbec is the best of the bunch but could probably use a bit more time in Triple-A, where he slashed .257/.301/.478 in 123 Triple-A plate appearances last year. Rule 5 pick Jonathan Arauz (taken out of the Astros organization) and shortstop C.J. Chatham could compete for a bench spot. Young catcher Connor Wong, acquired in the Mookie Betts/David Price blockbuster, is blocked by Christian Vazquez but could end up in the big leagues if injuries arise.

Given the Red Sox’ paper-thin rotation, any of Tanner Houck, Matt Hall, Bryan Mata or Kyle Hart could find himself with an opportunity. Hart and Houck enjoyed nice seasons in the upper minors, while Hall, acquired in a minor swap with the Tigers, has elite spin and movement on his curveball (albeit with an otherwise pedestrian arsenal). Mike Shawaryn has been primarily a starter in the minors but moved to the ’pen last season. He made his MLB debut in that role but didn’t find success (22 runs in 20 1/3 innings). Righty Durbin Feltman dominated after being taken in the third round in 2018 but needs a mulligan after a terrible 2019 in Double-A.

Yankees

Don’t look for many position players of note, but the Yankees have a number of appealing arms percolating in the upper minors. Right-hander Clarke Schmidt has surpassed righty Deivi Garcia as the top pitching prospect in the organization by some accounts, but he only tossed 90 2/3 innings last year (topping out with 19 in Double-A) as he worked back from 2017 Tommy John surgery. Garcia’s diminutive size (5’9″, 163 pounds) has led to some skepticism, but he averaged better than 13 K/9 through 111 1/3 frames across three minor league levels last year.

Those aren’t the only two options from which the Yankees can choose in the absence of Luis Severino, Domingo German and (depending on his recovery timeline) perhaps James Paxton. Righty Mike King made a brief debut (two innings) last season and has an excellent track record in the minors, though he was hobbled by a stress reaction in his elbow last season. Alliterative hurlers Albert Abreu and Nick Nelson both battled control issues in Double-A but are regarded as solid prospects who aren’t far from MLB readiness. If you’re looking for a reliever to watch, Brooks Kriske flirted with a sub-2.00 ERA and averaged nearly a dozen punchouts per nine innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A.

City Of Toronto Announces Events Ban

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4:10pm: Toronto’s ban focuses on city-led events, mayor John Tory clarified in a public statement. While the ban does not appear to explicitly rule out professional sporting events, mayor Tory’s press release states:

The City’s decision provides clear direction to event organizers to enable them to make sound decisions in support of public health efforts and their business needs, access insurance, support impacted employees and manage sponsors. The City urges event organizers to follow Toronto’s Medical Officer of Health’s recommendations of physical distancing as a way to minimize COVID-19 transmission in the community when reviewing their event plans for the upcoming months and make prudent decisions about their cancellations. Physical distancing means limiting the number of people a person comes into close contact with, including keeping two metres (six feet) apart from others, avoiding mass gatherings and avoiding crowds.

Asked for additional clarity, mayor Tory’s office confirmed that sporting events are not specifically barred under the ban (Twitter link via TSN’s Bryan Hayes). That seems something of a technicality at this point, however. Given the municipal limitations set forth by mayor Tory’s office and a recent provincial emergency order prohibiting organized events of more than five people, it’s extraordinary difficult to envision a scenario in which a stadium whose capacity sits north of 53,000 is hosting baseball games.

3:44pm: The City of Toronto has banned public events until at least June 30, tweets Tom Harrington of CBC News Radio. While it’s long been apparent that Major League Baseball’s shutdown will extend beyond the current May 10 date, the news out of Toronto provides further evidence that if the league determines that play can indeed resume, there will be notable challenges and obstacles to staging MLB games.

The ban on public events comes against the backdrop of increased speculation about the possibility of games being played in empty parks. Should the league attempt to resume play prior to the end of June, it’s now clear that the Blue Jays will either need to take that measure or explore a neutral site at which to host their home games. It’d be a surprise if they’re the only club that finds itself exploring such alternatives.

The Toronto Sun’s Rob Longley provides a bit of context on what the ban means for the Jays (Twitter link); from Opening Day through June 30, the Rogers Centre was scheduled to host 54 percent of the Blue Jays’ home contests in 2020. We already knew that a notable chunk of those games wouldn’t take place as scheduled, of course, and it’s possible that if the conclusion of the regular season is indeed pushed back into late October that the Jays could recoup some home games on a newly constructed schedule. A late start to the season would surely require some agile adjustments to the schedules of all 30 clubs.

Of course, there’s also no guarantee that Toronto’s events ban will only run through June 30. As we’ve seen with stay-at-home and shelter-in-place orders throughout the United States, the end dates on these public health measures are regularly extended and are hardly set in stone.

10 Players Switch Agencies

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Agent Rafa Nieves’ newly-founded Republik Sports agency will represent several players formerly represented by Nieves at Wasserman.  A video published earlier today on Republik’s official Twitter feed reveals the names of 11 players who will continue to be represented by Nieves at this new firm.

We already heard last night that Nationals outfielder Victor Robles (a Nieves client at Wasserman) was joining Republik, and the other ten names cited in the video include a mix of prominent veteran and up-and-coming stars.  The list consists of Indians infielder Jose Ramirez, Reds right-hander Luis Castillo, Pirates outfielder Gregory Polanco, Athletics right-hander Frankie Montas, Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, Rockies righty Antonio Senzatela, Padres outfielder Franchy Cordero, Marlins catcher Francisco Cervelli, and White Sox relievers Alex Colome and Kelvin Herrera.

As we’ve seen in several past cases of representatives changing agencies or starting new agencies, it’s quite common for players to continue using the same agent even after that rep becomes part of another company.  We saw this in 2017 with Nieves himself, as several of the aforementioned players (namely Ramirez, Robles, Herrera, Colome, Cervelli, Polanco, and Montas) all went with Nieves when the agent moved from the Beverly Hills Sports Council to Wasserman.

The 10 changes have all been updated in our Agency Database.  If you see any notable errors or omissions within the database, please let us know via e-mail: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Blue Jays Option Thomas Pannone, Jacob Waguespack, Santiago Espinal To Triple-A

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The Blue Jays made three roster moves today, announcing that left-hander Thomas Pannone, right-hander Jacob Waguespack, and infielder Santiago Espinal have been optioned to Triple-A Buffalo.

Pannone has become a familiar face in Toronto over the last two seasons, tossing 116 innings of 5.43 ERA ball with a 2.13 K/BB rate and 7.6 K/9.  The lefty has started 13 of his 49 career Major League games, though since Pannone has had much more success as a reliever (3.40 ERA in 55 2/3 relief innings, as opposed to a 7.31 ERA over 60 1/3 frames as a starter), he was being considered as a candidate for a bullpen role in 2020.

The Jays are a bit thin on left-handed relief options, as aside from Pannone, non-roster invitees like Marc Rzepczynski, Brian Moran, Kirby Snead, and Travis Bergen comprise the club’s top southpaw relievers.  Though we’re so far in advance of an Opening Day (that might still not even happen) that it’s hard to make clear projections, Pannone’s option could hint that the Blue Jays are going to select at least one of those non-guaranteed contracts.

Waguespack made his MLB debut last season, starting 13 of 16 games and posting a 4.38 ERA, 2.17 K/BB rate, and 7.3 K/9 over 78 innings.  Though ERA predictors and Statcast metrics weren’t impressed with Waguespack’s output, his 4.38 ERA still represented a decent on-field result for a pitching-starved Blue Jays team.  Toronto made a point of adding pitching over the winter, meaning that younger arms like Waguespack and Pannone (who ranked fifth and sixth in the Jays’ innings list in 2019) will no longer be relied on to such a heavy extent this season.

Espinal is best known to Jays fans as the prospect acquired from the Red Sox in the June 2018 trade that sent Steve Pearce to Boston.  Espinal’s first full season in Toronto’s farm system was a successful one, as he hit .287/.347/.393 over 521 combined plate appearances at the Double-A and Triple-A levels.  MLB Pipeline ranks Espinal as the 22nd-best Jays minor leaguer, describing him as a potential utility infield candidate based on glovework alone, with an offensive profile includes “good bat speed” and strong baserunning.

Teams & Players Adapting Opt-Out Plans Amid Coronavirus Uncertainty

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Typically, late March is a time in which we see a lot of roster movement as clubs sort out their Opening Day rosters. Veteran free agents on minor-league deals can often force the action by virtue of opt-out clauses in their contracts. But the situation looks quite a bit different under the unusual circumstances of the delayed 2020 season.

League rosters have not been frozen. And there’s no rule suspending the operation of those opt-out clauses. Accordingly, teams and player agents have been left to sort things out on a case-by-case basis.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports (Twitter link) that there are a variety of approaches being taken around the game. In some cases, teams and players have effectively pushed back the decision by reaching new agreements pegged to some future date — from the start of a second Spring Training or eventual Opening Day. The Phillies, Blue Jays, and Pirates are in the latter camp.

In other situations, it seems, the sides have more or less tabled the details, leaving for another day a determination on the operation of the opt-out clause. And in still other cases, there’s still uncertainty. The Royals, for instance, are still trying to decide how best to handle the immediately pending (March 26th) opt-outs of veteran relievers Greg Holland and Trevor Rosenthal.

It’s certainly possible that those and other players will simply exercise their opt-out rights as originally negotiated. We’ve already seen some players — Joe Panik with the Blue Jays; Ryan Buchter with the Angels — earn 40-man roster spots in recent days, so some clubs have obviously been willing to make commitments.

Curious how this might impact your favorite team’s plans? Our 2019-20 Free Agent Tracker includes links to all of our posts on minor-league signings, with simple filters to help you isolate the signings of interest. At minimum, you’ll see many of the players who were brought into camp as non-roster invitees. And the linked posts on the signings include opt-out details, if they were reported.

Extension Candidates: AL East

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There’s no baseball in the present, which has many fans turning to the past, as broadcasters are helping us addicts get our fix by filling the air with classic games from days gone by. But what about the future? Which players are logical fits for contract extensions for the days yet to come?

We’ve already checked in on the NL East, NL Central and NL West. Now it’s time to switch over to the Junior Circuit and check in on the AL East.

Blue Jays

The youth movement is in full effect north of the border, as the team currently has no position players on the 40-man roster who have reached their 30th birthday. That means there are extension candidates up and down the line. From the team’s perspective, they would surely love to lock up their young core players of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio, all of whom have less than a year of service time and are therefore at least two years away from arbitration. However, since all three are the sons of retired big leaguers who made millions during their playing days, they might not be as motivated as some other players to sign away years of free agency in exchange for the security of having guaranteed money in the bank.

One promising youngster without a famous lineage is catcher Danny Jansen. The team could have some desire to lock him up if they think he’s their catcher of the future. But does the team still believe that after his lackluster offensive numbers in 2019?

On the pitching side, the most promising young arm is prospect Nate Pearson, who hasn’t even made it onto the roster yet. We’ve seen some recent extensions given to players before their MLB debuts, such as Luis Robert, Evan White and Eloy Jimenez, but none for pitchers just yet. One wild card is Ken Giles. The 29-year-old has been lights out since leaving Houston and is one year away from free agency. But because of injury concerns, perhaps the right deal could give him enough peace of mind to forgo the open market.

Orioles

The Orioles are about as full into rebuild as a team can be. And the path out of the AL East basement seems to be long and arduous. But one way to brighten the light at the end of the tunnel would be to lock in some quality players for the happier days down the road. Unfortunately, there’s not a lot of guys that currently meet that description.

The team had four players produce more than 2.0 fWAR in 2019. Two of them are now on different teams (Dylan Bundy and Jonathan Villar). And another, Trey Mancini, is suddenly in an uncertain position after recently undergoing surgery to remove a malignant tumor from his colon.

That leaves only hurler John Means, who had a fantastic breakout season in 2019. And since he’s about to turn 27 and is two years away from arbitration, he might want to lock up some cash while he can. But from the team perspective, Means might not be worth betting on at this stage. His 2019 ERA of 3.60 was nice, but FIP and xFIP are less bullish, pegging him at 4.41 and 5.48, respectively. It would be prudent for the Orioles to be patient and see if he has the ability to find repeat success.

Rays 

The cash-strapped Rays are big fans of the extension, having signed 11 of them in the decade that just ended. Since they almost never reel in big fish in free agency, Charlie Morton notwithstanding, extensions are the best way for them to get bang for their buck and keep talent on the roster. Just a few weeks ago, they were reportedly discussions extensions with Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows.

As for Glasnow, he finally had his long-awaited breakout in 2019. He just reached arbitration as a Super Two and could conceivably make some decent money with four trips through arbitration. The club would surely prefer to put a cap on his earnings ceiling if they could. And since Glasnow struggled through his first few years in Pittsburgh, he might welcome the security of guaranteed cash to insure himself against those struggles returning. But because of injuries, he only logged 60 2/3 innings last year. He still hasn’t proven he can maintain his abilities over a full season. Until he does, that limits his leverage in negotiations.

As for Meadows, he had a tremendous season in 2019, putting up the kind of classical power numbers that should reward him well in arbitration. As long as he can stay healthy and repeat them. But since arbitration is still two years away, perhaps a compromise could be worked out wherein he gets more money now but sacrifices the top end of his earning power.

In terms of other guys, there are a whole whack of them that the Rays could try to nail down before they start getting paid real money. The list includes Joey Wendle, Willy Adames, Ryan Yarbrough, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe and a big batch of relievers. But of course, with the Rays, there’s always a decent chance they’ll just trade a guy as soon as they get uncomfortable with his cost.

Red Sox

After trading away Mookie Betts and David Price and then losing Chris Sale to Tommy John surgery, it might feel like the Red Sox are a hollowed-out husk. But there’s still a lot of talent on the roster that they should want to keep around. And now that they’ve accomplished their goal of getting under the luxury tax barrier, they should have some room on the payroll to actually do it.

Andrew Benintendi recently signed a two-year deal. But he will still have one arbitration year remaining after that. That means he would hit the free agent market as a 28-year-old, potentially lining himself up for a nice payday, unless the Sox pay him first. Eduardo Rodriguez just had his best season and could also reach free agency at 28. He’s making $8.3MM in 2020 and still has one more pass through arbitration remaining. With Price and Sale gone, and Eovaldi’s injury history, it could make sense to keep Rodriguez around for a few more years for some rotation stability.

Rafael Devers won’t even get into arbitration until after this season. And since he’s only 23, he could bank some cash, give away a few free agent years and still reach the open market before he turns 30. Alex Verdugo is just a bit older but has one more year of team control than Devers. If Boston believed in him enough to make him the centrepiece of their return for giving up a franchise player like Mookie Betts, they must believe he’s capable of helping them down the road.

Yankees

The big-spending Yankees of old seem to have returned, after they blew way past the luxury tax for 2020. But you can never rule out another dump truck of money coming around the corner. They’re the Yankees, after all.

They already struck gold with the first time they signed DJ LeMahieu. He somehow managed to have his best offensive output during a season in which he turned 31, and after leaving the friendly confines of Coors Field. Last month, it didn’t seem like anything was imminent. But that doesn’t mean a deal couldn’t be reached at some point this year to prevent him going on the block. James Paxton is also just one year away from free agency. But given his persistent injuries, would the Yankees bet on him in a big way?

Of course, the 6’7″ elephant in the room is Aaron Judge. The delayed start to the season is giving him a chance to convalesce and approach full health. The slugger will make $8.5MM in 2020 and still has two passes through arbitration remaining before he hits free agency as a 30-year-old. Will the Yankees shell out the big bucks to keep the fan favorite around? Or does his injury history give them pause? Gary Sanchez is in a similar position, but just a few months younger than Judge and with a slightly smaller salary at $5MM.

In the pre-arb department, Gleyber Torres is the shining star. He is sure to reach arbitration after 2020 as a Super Two, meaning he’ll have four chances to get a raise through arbitration unless the Yanks can fork over enough to get him not to. Since he’s on pace to reach the open market at 27, he could give up a few free agent years and still become a free agent at a relatively young age.

Quick Hits: MiLB, Bichette, Axford

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Minor league baseball teams are being hit particularly hard by the coronavirus shutdown, per Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper. With the shutdown coming so close to the start of the season, many minor league teams had already spent money in preparation for the season – money they aren’t likely to recoup. Some teams will consider small business loans to stay afloat, but there’s too much uncertainty to forecast too far into the future. The livelihoods of the many part-time workers that help keep minor league ballparks functioning is a primary concern, of course, but there’s definitely the possibility of losing a minor league team or two wholesale. Cooper says this of the issue, “The numbers vary, but without significant help from the government or others, estimates from people inside MiLB range from 10 to 40 MiLB clubs that may struggle to make it through the season.” Let’s head north of the border for some more updates…

  • Bo Bichette has been keeping his arm loose, trying to keep a routine and stay prepared, but with the layoff stretching longer than initially expected, he’s considering taking some time off from the even most basic baseball activities, per TSN’s Scott Mitchell. There are obviously bigger issues at play here, which is why Bichette has no problem backburnering his career for the time being while focusing on social distancing. That said, in the distant background of Mitchell’s article, the question of ballplayer health arises. It will be an interesting one to track when/if the season does get underway.
  • Speaking of complications from the current crisis, Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch hopes the current layoff pushes the league and players’ union to find some common ground when it comes to eventual collective bargaining. Frederickson provides a quote from Andrew Miller, who captured the sentiment of many when he said “The finances of the game, whether it’s from the player or the owner perspective, it’s in everybody’s best interest to get games going.”
  • John Axford was mounting a comeback bid before COVID-19 rearranged everyone’s priorities, per the Canadian Press at Sportsnet.ca. Axford sustained a stress fracture in his right elbow during spring training last year, missing the entire season while recovering. The once-mustachioed Axford last appeared in the majors for the Blue Jays and Dodgers in 2018, sustaining some bad luck en route to a 5.27 ERA across 50 outings. A 3.98 FIP suggests the underlying output from Axford deserves a second look. Over his ten year career, Axford made 543 appearances for the Brewers, A’s, Rockies, Pirates, Cardinals, Dodgers, Indians and Blue Jays, though no stop was more noteworthy than his early days in Milwaukee, which included a 46-save season in 2011. In total, he notched 144 career saves with a 3.87 ERA/3.67 FIP. Whether Axford gets another chance at cracking an MLB roster remains to be seen, but he’s keeping his options open for now.

Reese McGuire's Court Date Pushed Back

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  • The coronavirus led the Criminal Court Complex in Clearwater, Fla., to push back Blue Jays catcher Reese McGuire’s court date to April 20, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet relays. McGuire had been scheduled to appear in court Monday as a result of his Feb. 7 arrest on a charge of “exposure of sexual organs,” a first-degree misdemeanor. He could face one year in jail and fines up to $1K.
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