Notable International Prospect Signings
With the 2018-19 international signing period kicking off today, there will be dozens of six- and seven-figure bonuses handed out to teenage prospects, primarily out of Latin America, filtering in throughout the day today. Many of these have been in the works for quite some time, as is reflected by the fact that most of the top players’ destinations and signing bonuses have been previously reported/projected (and by the fact that the top agreements will all be reported in one swift avalanche today).
We’ll keep track of the notable National League signings here and the notable American League signings in a separate post. Note that you can read up on each of these players with the dedicated international coverage available from Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required), Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com and Kiley McDaniel & Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, each of whom has scouting info on the top echelon of international amateurs. Badler is also tracking the all of the signings from all 30 teams.
Onto some of the more notable signings…
Olney’s Latest: Mets, Blue Jays, Tribe, BoSox, Braves, Phillies
The Mets will listen to offers for co-aces Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard in advance of the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, but it appears the two will stay put. The club’s seeking overwhelming returns for both right-handers and is “highly unlikely” to move either one, according to Buster Olney of ESPN. With general manager Sandy Alderson on leave as he battles cancer, assistants Omar Minaya, John Ricco and J.P. Ricciardi will help determine the futures of deGrom, Syndergaard and other Mets. However, it’s not a lock that anyone from that group will become Alderson’s full-time successor, as Mets ownership is likely to look outside the organization for the team’s next GM, Olney hears. Minaya, who preceded Alderson as New York’s GM, has the respect of Mets owner Fred Wilpon and will “have a major say” in who takes over for Alderson, per Olney.
More from Olney as the deadline draws closer:
- With deGrom and Syndergaard unlikely to go anywhere, Blue Jays left-hander J.A. Happ may end up as the best starter moved this month, Olney observes. The Jays have attached “a high asking price” to Happ, Olney writes, which isn’t surprising given his strong track record – including a 3.62 ERA and a career-high 9.84 K/9 in 97 innings this year. Meanwhile, Toronto’s discussing fellow starter Marco Estrada with other teams, Olney reports. Estrada, like Happ, is set to hit free agency at year’s end. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams examined his trade value earlier this week.
- The Indians hope to acquire at least one quality reliever who’s under control past this season, per Olney. Although Cleveland’s a shoo-in to win the AL Central, the team’s bullpen has been a disaster, as its relievers rank 28th in both ERA and fWAR. Further, the Indians could lose their top two relievers, Cody Allen and Andrew Miller, to free agency after the season, so adding someone who’s signed beyond this year would help cover for their departures.
- The Red Sox and Braves are among other contenders that could be in the market for bullpen help, according to Olney. In Boston’s case, Olney notes that it may take on a high-priced reliever from another team in a salary dump, thanks to its thin farm system. The Braves, meanwhile, don’t have the spending ability of clubs like the Red Sox and division-rival Phillies, but they are set to act as buyers as they seek their first playoff berth since 2013. Philadelphia, which hasn’t clinched a playoff berth since 2011, will also buy, Olney relays. Entering Sunday, the Braves (47-34) lead the Phillies (44-37) by three games for the NL East lead, but the latter is in possession of a wild-card spot at the moment.
AL East Notes: Machado, Sabathia, Blue Jays
With the Orioles having failed to extend Manny Machado in the past, the shortstop noted this weekend (via Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun) that “they never reached out and showed that appreciation like the Angels did to (Mike) Trout. It was a totally different situation.” Machado was referring to the Angels’ decision in 2014 to give the then-22-year-old Trout a six-year, $144.5MM extension – one that canceled out three arbitration-eligible seasons and three free-agent years. Now, Machado says he’s “grateful” he’ll hit free agency this offseason at the age of 26. So, while the Orioles are all but guaranteed to trade Machado to a contender in the next few months, it doesn’t sound as if his next employer will have a legitimate chance to prevent him from reaching the open market with a new contract. Of course, given that Machado is in line to sign one of the majors’ richest deals ever, it’s no surprise he’s eager to test the open market.
Here’s more on a couple other AL East teams:
- Left-hander CC Sabathia suggested last month that he’d retire at year’s end if the Yankees were to win the World Series. But the 37-year-old now seems more open to returning in 2019 even if the Yankees aren’t the last team standing this season. “If we win the World Series and I pitch well and I’m healthy at the end of the year, then it’s 50-50 that I come back,” Sabathia said (via Marc Carig of The Athletic; subscription required). “It’s not an absolute.” Considering how well he’s pitching, it stands to reason the Yankees would welcome back a healthy Sabathia next year if he decides to keep pitching. In his age 37-season, Sabathia has pitched to a 3.02 ERA/4.04 FIP in 83 1/3 innings, thanks in part to his ability to limit hard contact. Sabathia ranks third among qualified pitchers in average exit velocity against (84.2 mph).
- The value of Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak‘s 2019 club option has climbed from $6MM to $7MM, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet tweets. In order for that to happen, Smoak needed to accrue 950 plate appearances from 2017-18. He surpassed that figure Saturday. And Smoak’s option will go from $7MM to $8MM if he amasses 150 more PAs this year (1,100 total from 2017-18), Davidi notes. Whether his salary ends up at $7MM or $8MM, both numbers look like reasonable salaries for Smoak – who’s enjoying his second straight above-average offensive season. Although, Smoak’s .235/.359/.438 line in 315 PAs falls well short of last year’s .270/.355/.529 showing.
- More on the Blue Jays, whose willingness to eat portions of veterans’ contracts in trades has them in a good position as the July 31 non-waiver deadline nears, Davidi observes. When Toronto sent infielder/outfielder Steve Pearce to Boston this week, it acquired infield prospect Santiago Espinal in part because it ate $1.66MM of Pearce’s remaining salary. With Pearce gone, the Jays still have several other veteran trade candidates, and paying some of their contracts would improve the team’s returns in deals. Notably, the Jays “have the support of the organization to do it,” general manager Ross Atkins said.
Blue Jays Place Ryan Tepera On 10-Day Disabled List
The Blue Jays announced this morning that right-hander Ryan Tepera has been placed on the 10-day DL due to right elbow inflammation, with the placement retroactive to June 28. Jake Petricka was promoted from Triple-A to take Tepera’s spot on the 25-man roster.
Tepera emerged as a workhorse out of the Toronto bullpen when he tossed 77 2/3 innings in 2017, and he continued to produce as one of the Jays’ primary setup options early in the season. In the wake of Roberto Osuna‘s absence and subsequent suspension stemming from domestic assault charges, Tepera was also developing into John Gibbons’ preferred choice as closer. Tyler Clippard earned a save for the Jays last night and will likely get the bulk of ninth-inning chances while Tepera is out.
[Updated Blue Jays depth chart at Roster Resource]
Over 39 1/3 IP, Tepera has posted an impressive 2.97 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 3.58 K/BB rate and 47.5% grounder rate. ERA predictors (3.55 FIP, 3.43 xFIP, 3.05 SIERA) are only slightly less-impressed with his performance, and it could be argued that Tepera has even been a hit unlucky, as his xwOBA (.270) is well below his actual xOBA of .316. The long ball has been a bit of an issue for Tepera, as he has allowed five homers this season, the most recent being a walkoff blast from Houston’s Alex Bregman in a blown save opportunity last Wednesday.
Tepera’s absence is yet another blow to a Blue Jays team that looks to be sellers at the deadline, with Thursday’s trade of Steve Pearce to the Red Sox perhaps being the first of several deals in the coming weeks. Toronto’s short-term veterans are the most obvious candidates to be dealt, though MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi recently reported that Tepera had been receiving some trade interest. If Tepera is able to return just after the All-Star break, he should have enough time to prove his health and continue his exhibit his value to any suitors, assuming that Toronto is interested in dealing him. Tepera isn’t eligible for arbitration until this coming winter, making him an important controllable piece within a Jays bullpen that has a lot of long-term questions, given Osuna’s situation and the number of veterans only signed through this season.
Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins On Roberto Osuna, Trade Deadline Plans
Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said today that suspended reliever Roberto Osuna will return to being the team’s closer when he is activated from his suspension, as Shi Davidi of Sporsnet.ca reports. Osuna is serving a 75-game suspension for a violation of the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy.
Dealing with Osuna’s situation was never going to be easy for the Toronto organization. The domestic assault charges against Osuna — one of the game’s best young relief pitchers — are extremely serious.
While the imposition of a lengthy ban did give the team an understanding as to when the young pitcher will be able to play, at least in the eyes of Major League Baseball, there’s still ample uncertainty remaining. Osuna is still facing a criminal trial, after all. In the event of a conviction, he could miss further time (and public scrutiny). And any criminal penalties could make it difficult for him to travel with the team. The factual circumstances surrounding his arrest also still remain largely unknown. Public opinion on the topic may yet depend upon the course of the criminal matter and what facts ultimately emerge.
Still, Atkins declared today that Osuna “is our closer.” He explained:
“We’re running a baseball team and our goal is to win championships. Roberto could potentially be very much a part of that. The word that comes to mind for me when you talk about that is empathy. That’s not just for Roberto, that’s for everyone involved, that’s where we’re going to spend our time and energy, on being empathetic and trying to understand. We don’t have a background in investigations.”
Readers can reach their own conclusions as to the merits of that stance given what has been reported to this point. From a purely on-field perspective, though, it seems Osuna will step back into his prominent role at the back of the Blue Jays’ bullpen if and when he’s able. The comments surely give no indication that the organization will look to trade Osuna before the July 31st trade deadline, as has been speculated elsewhere. He’s eligible to return to play in the majors in early August.
Atkins also addressed his organization’s general stance with the trade deadline approaching, as Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweeted. With Steve Pearce going out the door last night, it’s already obvious that the Jays’ rental pieces are available. That means that a variety of relievers could be moved, along with veteran outfielder Curtis Granderson and starters such as J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada.
But Atkins made clear, too, that the team will at least be open to the possibility of dealing controllable assets as well. If rival organizations wish to pry loose a player under contract into the future, though, the Jays will ask them “to frame the value for us and do the work on their end.” It seems, then, that the Toronto front office won’t be shopping players such as Justin Smoak, Yangervis Solarte, and Kevin Pillar so much as it will be amenable to considering offers for them.
While much of the focus will be on the July trade period, matters of significance lurk in August. Osuna’s status is likely to be a highly visible topic, with implications that go well beyond the game itself. And from a pure baseball perspective, a fascinating situation could be developing with regard to Josh Donaldson, who could be a highly important trade asset during the revocable waiver trade period — if he’s able to get back to health by that point, which isn’t yet certain given his recent setback.
Blue Jays Select Contract Of Darnell Sweeney
The Blue Jays have selected the contract of utilityman Darnell Sweeney, as Ben Nicholson-Smith first observed on Twitter. He’ll take the open roster spot created by last night’s trade of Steve Pearce.
Sweeney, 27, has only seen brief action in the majors, with a brief run with the Phillies back in 2015. He hasn’t shown enough offensive potential in the upper minors to force further opportunities, with a .255/.323/.397 cumulative slash in 400 career games a Triple-A.
That said, Sweeney does offer immense versatility, with significant professional experience in the infield (at second, third, and shortstop) and outfield (left and center). Though he has swiped quite a few bags in the minors, Sweeney has also been caught rather frequently. In total, he has 156 steals but has been tagged out 83 times.
Red Sox Acquire Steve Pearce
June 29: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Blue Jays included $1.66MM as part of the deal. That’s a bit more than half of what Pearce is owed through season’s end and will help to keep the Red Sox from eclipsing the top tier of penalties in the luxury tax bracket. Boston is just narrowly shy of exceeding the tax threshold by a total of $40MM. Were Boston to cross that $237MM threshold, the team’s top pick in next year’s draft would be moved back 10 spaces.
June 28: The Red Sox have acquired infielder/outfielder Steve Pearce from the Blue Jays, per a club announcement. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe had reported that the team was close to acquiring a right-handed-hitting player (via Twitter).
Minor-leaguer Santiago Espinal will head to the Jays in return. Toronto will also send some cash to their division rivals to help offset Pearce’s salary. The amount of cash remains unknown.
Pearce, 35, was set to return to the open market after the season, when his two-year contract will expire. He’s earning $6.25MM this year, some portion of which will remain on the Toronto books. Pearce, interestingly, has now appeared with each of the five AL East organizations, in addition to time spent with the Astros and Pirates.
To this point of the season, Pearce has been limited to 26 games of action due to injury — a recurring problem for a player who has otherwise generally been quite productive. He’s slashing a robust .291/.349/.519 through 86 plate appearances in 2018. Since the start of the 2013 campaign, he owns a cumulative 121 OPS+. When healthy, then, he’s a rather accomplished hitter — especially against left-handed pitching.
While his calling card is his bat, Pearce also brings solid versatility to the table. He has shown an ability to perform at least passably in the corner outfield, corner infield,and even at second base. For Boston, Pearce could share time at first with the lefty-swinging Mitch Moreland and perhaps also line up at times in left. Whether he’ll be an option at second isn’t yet clear, though that has certainly been an area of some attention given concerns over Dustin Pedroia. (For what it’s worth, the announcement lists Pearce specifically as a first baseman and outfielder.)
With the move, the Jays have likely launched a long-anticipated summer sell-off. Given the state of affairs in the division, and a tough Wild Card race as well, it’s not surprising to see the organization begin moving veterans. It remains to be seen, though, how willing the Blue Jays will be to consider moving more controllable assets.
For their trouble, the Blue Jays will not only save some cash but will also pick up a potentially useful prospect asset. Espinal, a tenth-round pick in the 2016 draft, is hitting well this year at the High-A level. The 23-year-old carries a .314/.364/.478 slash with seven home runs and nine steals over 280 plate appearances. He has lined up primarily at shortstop but has also seen time at second and third base as a professional.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Josh Donaldson Suffers Setback In Injury Rehab
What once looked to be a potentially minor trip to the disabled list for Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson will now be prolonged in fairly considerable fashion. The Blue Jays revealed today that Donaldson incurred a setback while fielding ground-balls in Florida as part of his rehab program (Twitter link via Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling). An MRI has already been taken, revealing an “acute strain” of his calf muscle that’ll require him to be shut down once again. Donaldson will be reevaluated in three weeks, per Zwelling.
That timeline figures to knock Donaldson out for the remainder of the first half, as he’ll assuredly be eased back into baseball activities before ramping up and heading out on a minor league rehab assignment.
It’s already been nearly a month since Donaldson last saw action in a big league game. He’s been on the disabled list twice this season, with the other stint coming due to inflammation in his throwing shoulder. Obviously, that’s not how Donaldson hoped his contract season would play out — especially not after a monster finish to the 2017 season in which he hit .302/.410/.698 in August and September to close out the 2017 season, homering 22 times in 227 plate appearances along the way.
The 32-year-old Donaldson has been limited to just 159 plate appearances so far in 2018, hitting at a .234/.333/.423 pace with five homers. That combination of solid on-base skills and useful power numbers (.190 ISO) isn’t necessarily bad, but it’s nowhere near the lofty standards that the 2015 AL MVP has established for himself since breaking out as one of the league’s best all-around players back in 2013. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes noted on the latest edition of MLBTR’s 2018-19 Free Agent Power Rankings, Donaldson’s injury troubles could be significantly diminishing his earning power in free agency; Donaldson ranked fourth on the first edition of the list but fell to eighth on this month’s update back on June 7.
There is, of course, still time for Donaldson to return and rebuild some of his stock. But at 33 years of age this winter and with an absence that could now approach two months for his current calf injury, Donaldson will have a fairly big hole out which to dig himself, and his reps at MVP Sports will have some work to do in convincing interested teams that his injuries come with minimal changes of lingering into 2019 and beyond.
As for the Blue Jays, the setback Donaldson is especially problematic given their status as sellers at this summer’s non-waiver deadline. Even in a best-case scenario, Donaldson would have minimal time to return and showcase his health prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. Perhaps his sizable $23MM salary for the 2018 season would allow him to clear revocable trade waivers and be marketed in August, but there’s no denying that his value on the trade market has taken a substantial hit and robbed the Jays of some opportunity to acquire meaningful prospect capital in exchange for the final few months of control over Donaldson.
While many fans will wonder whether this setback could impact the timeline of uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr., it’s worth reminding that Guerrero himself hasn’t played since June 6 due to a strained patellar tendon in his left knee. He was slated to be evaluated four weeks after sustaining his own injury, and the Jays will presumably want to get him some reps in minor league games before even considering a promotion to the Majors.
Blue Jays Designate Gio Urshela For Assignment
The Blue Jays announced that they’ve designated infielder Gio Urshela for assignment in order to clear space on the roster for left-hander Ryan Borucki, who has been recalled from Triple-A Buffalo and will start tonight’s game.
Urshela, 26, was acquired from the Indians back in early May and has received sparse playing time in the six weeks that have followed. Urshela has appeared in 19 games with the Jays but taken just 46 trips to the plate, hitting .233/.283/.326 in that time. That’s roughly in line with his career numbers to date: a .225/.274/.315 batting line in 499 plate appearances. Urshela grades out as an above-average third baseman, though Toronto has used him more at shortstop, where defensive metrics have been less favorable (in an admittedly negligible sample of 85 innings).
Toronto will have a week to either trade Urshela or place him on outright waivers in hopes of going unclaimed and subsequently being sent outright to Buffalo. Given his defensive reputation, it’s possible that Urshela would indeed be claimed by another club. However, he’s also out of minor league options, so any team claiming him will have to carry him on the MLB roster or try to once again run him through waivers in order to get him to Triple-A.
Trade Candidate: Marco Estrada
Though we noted Blue Jays righty Marco Estrada as a possible trade candidate in our first ranking of the 50 top trade deadline assets, he only rated mention on the outside of the list. To that point of the season, after all, Estrada had largely been ineffective. With a $13MM salary, there wasn’t a ton of appeal in a player who’ll turn 35 in early July.
That situation, however, is beginning to change. Estrada has been one of the better starters in baseball over the past month, accumulating an even 1.0 fWAR over the past thirty days — something only ten other hurlers in the game have accomplished. In his last four outings, in particular, he has worked to a 1.75 ERA with 26 strikeouts against five walks.
How has it happened? It’s a bit difficult to say for sure, as there haven’t been any truly dramatic swings in his approach or stuff. But his fastball sure has been more effective: it was valued at -1.53 runs per one hundred pitches through May, but has jumped to a +4.27 valuation on a rate basis in June. And Estrada has been pumping first-pitch strikes at a greater rate in the past month as well (going from 63.4% to 69.5%). Meanwhile, the shape of his changeup has altered somewhat, exhibiting less horizontal and slightly more vertical movement over his past four starts.
These changes are subtle enough that they may not really reflect much at all of substance. The primary drivers, perhaps, still need to be sussed out and assessed for sustainability. But it does not seem that Estrada has simply been the beneficiary of a correction in batted-ball fortune. Statcast suggests he deserved the poor outcomes that befell him through the end of May, and has simply been much better at limiting good contact since.
In the aggregate, it’s certainly far too soon to declare Estrada a newfound ace. In all likelihood, his true talent at this point pegs him as a solid hurler who could help a contender fill out a competitive rotation.
That general impression is buttressed by a review of Estrada’s past several seasons. Upon landing in Toronto, he had great results in 2015 and 2016 before a downturn last year. But his underlying statistics have been fairly consistent all along. In total, over 627 1/3 innings with the Jays, Estrada owns a 3.96 ERA with a 4.40 FIP, 4.91 xFIP, and 4.57 SIERA. To the extent it’s reasonable to anticipate that he will outperform the ERA estimators somewhat, it’s likely not wise to hope he’ll do so by any great margin.
Barring a sustained run over the next month, Estrada likely won’t generate a huge amount of excitement at the trade deadline. But he increasingly looks like a solid piece for the right team. He has been good for about thirty starts and 180 frames annually of late, and despite some ups and downs is perhaps reasonably viewed as a sturdy back-of-the-rotation arm overall.
As the above-linked list of top deadline candidates shows, the crop of rotation targets is rather thin at present. The Jays surely won’t be able to draw any significant offers of young talent for Estrada. But perhaps they’ll manage to offload a decent chunk of his remaining salary obligations next month. That’s not to say it’s any kind of sure thing that he’ll end up elsewhere. After all, we’ve wondered previously whether the veteran hurler would leave the Jays, only for him to agree to successive contracts just before reaching the open market (see here and here).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.