Blue Jays Make Qualifying Offer To Marco Estrada
The Blue Jays will make the one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to right-hander Marco Estrada, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (via Twitter). Estrada, like all other free agents to receive the QO, will have one week to accept or decline the offer. Should he reject the offer, any club would have to forfeit its top unprotected draft pick to sign him as a free agent. Additionally, the Blue Jays would net a compensatory pick at the end of the first round in next year’s draft.
A qualifying offer for Estrada wasn’t even a consideration heading into the season, especially considering the fact that the 32-year-old opened the year in the bullpen. However, Estrada joined the Toronto rotation in early May and proceeded to deliver the best performance of his career, logging a 3.13 ERA in 180 innings and continuing with an outstanding postseason that saw him surrender just five runs with an 11-to-1 K/BB ratio in 19 1/3 innings.
Estrada will now be faced with an interesting decision. He’s banked a relatively modest $10MM in his career, so the qualifying offer alone could pay him one-and-a-half times his career earnings in just one season. However, Estrada has also never been on a multi-year deal and enjoyed the security that such a pact would afford him, and it’s likely that he’d have received significant multi-year interest without the QO.
The draft pick forfeiture will add to what was already an air of uncertainty surrounding Estrada. Prior to the 2015 season, he’d enjoyed a few quality seasons, but his strikeout and walk rates had trended in the wrong direction — and they did again in 2015 — as he bounced back and forth between the Milwaukee bullpen and rotation. Estrada unquestionably benefited from a minuscule .218 BABIP this season, but it’s also not fair to assume that mark will regress toward the league-average of about .300. As an extreme fly-ball pitcher, Estrada naturally has a lower BABIP (fly-balls are easier to convert into outs but also beget more home runs) and has maintained a .261 career mark in that regard.
A team that believes it can find a way to restore Estrada’s strikeouts while also maintaining a bit of the improved home-run prevention he displayed in 2015 may well think he’s worth the forfeiture of a draft pick — especially if the team has a protected (or late) first-round pick and/or plays in a spacious ball park. Ultimately, the bet here is that he turns the offer down in search of a long-term pact. It’s also possible that Estrada and the Blue Jays compromise and work out a long-term pact in the coming week as he weighs the decision.
Blue Jays Exercise Options On Dickey, Bautista, Encarnacion; Izturis’ Option Declined
NOVEMBER 3: Toronto has exercised its options over Dickey, Bautista, and Encarnacion, as expected, per a club announcement. The team has declined its option on infielder Maicer Izturis, paying him a $1MM buyout rather than a $3MM salary. Izturis, 35, missed the entire season due to injury.
OCTOBER 28: The Blue Jays will exercise their $12MM club option on right-hander R.A. Dickey for the 2016 season, sources tell Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Heyman also adds that Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion will have their respective $14MM and $10MM club options exercised, though those two options were foregone conclusions. Dickey’s situation was a bit less certain, though still more or less expected, especially in light of Alex Anthopoulos’ comment that Dickey had put himself in a good position for the option to be picked up (via Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, on Twitter).
Dickey, who turns 41 years old tomorrow, logged more than 200 innings for the fifth consecutive season and posted a 3.91 ERA with 5.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 41.9 percent ground-ball rate in his 214 1/3 frames this year. He came under criticism from some Jays fans after an ugly final start in the postseason — five runs (four earned) in just 1 2/3 innings — but Dickey was outstanding over the final four months of the regular season.
After limping out of the gates and posting a 5.77 ERA through the end of May, Dickey righted the ship and worked to a 3.11 ERA over his final 23 starts/150 innings. He had what appears on the surface to be some BABIP help over that stretch (.261), but Dickey has maintained a well-below-average BABIP mark over the past few seasons and routinely been able to outperform metrics such as FIP, xFIP and SIERA as a result.
Dickey’s option came with a $1MM buyout, meaning that this essentially boiled down to an $11MM decision on the knuckleballer. While he’s yet to replicate the production he delivered in his outstanding National League Cy Young Award season, steady innings have value. Dickey has averaged 218 innings per season in Toronto and totaled a park-adjusted ERA of 100 — exactly the league average — since coming to Toronto, which is worth $11MM in today’s market.
Given the uncertainty in the Blue Jays’ rotation picture — David Price, Marco Estrada and Mark Buehrle could all be lost to free agency (or, in Buehrle’s case, retirement) — retaining Dickey for a net total of $11MM gives Toronto some much needed stability. He’ll be joined in the rotation by rising star Marcus Stroman and could also see 2015 relievers Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna by his side, depending on the team’s offseason pitching acquisitions. Recently, the Toronto Star’s Richard Griffin wrote about Dickey’s importance to the 2016 rotation.
As for Bautista and Encarnacion, though each is into his mid-30s (Bautista is 35, and Encarnacion will be 33 in January), each is still among the game’s premier sluggers. Bautista reached the 40-homer plateau for the third time in 2015 and led the American League with 110 walks, whereas Encarnacion’s 39 homers gave him a fourth straight season with 34 or more long balls. Since his 2012 breakout, Encarnacion has a collective OPS+ of 150. Each right-handed slugger will pair with the likes of Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki to hit in the heart of what will again be an incredibly formidable Toronto lineup in 2016.
Shapiro, LaCava On Jays Offseason
The Blue Jays’ new front office leadership — president Mark Shapiro and interim GM Tony LaCava — held a press conference today in which they addressed a variety of important topics. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reported on all the key aspects of the discussion. Among the most notable bits:
- Toronto will bring back manager John Gibbons. He was under contract for another year already, as his deal includes a clause that guarantees an added season if he’s not let go within the prior calendar year. It’s designed to prevent him from ever entering a season as a lame duck manager, and the Jays will apparently allow that provision to go into effect this season.
- While LaCava will take the reins of the baseball operations department for the time being, Shapiro said that he intends to conduct a full search for a new general manager. It’s not yet clear whether LaCava will be a candidate and what kind of timeline the club expects. Looking ahead, Shapiro indicated that he will operate at a high-level in collaboration with his general manager, but gave Nicholson-Smith the impression that he is and will continue to be well-versed in all of the organization’s baseball assets and decisions.
- Shapiro clearly rejected idea that he’d criticized Alex Anthopoulos for his deadline dealing in an internal meeting, as had been reported. He told the press that the summer moves were “great trades,” even if they required the organization to part with good young talent.
- The Jays payroll will give the team what it needs to continue in contention, Shapiro said, though he did not give details on the club’s actual spending appetite for the coming year. He did note that he’s not unaware that he’ll be working with more flexibility than he had with the Indians. As he put it, “if you have a larger payroll you have a greater tolerance for risk.” In that regard, Toronto will no longer abide by any strict rules against issuing contracts of more than five years in duration. “I don’t believe in absolutes,” Shapiro explained.
Blue Jays Name Tony LaCava Interim GM
1:15pm: Shapiro announced LaCava as the interim GM at today’s press conference and said there’s no timetable yet for finding a permanent solution for the position (links to Twitter via Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson Smith).
12:24pm: The Blue Jays will name assistant general manager Tony LaCava the team’s interim general manager, Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun first reported this weekend. The Blue Jays are holding a press conference today to formally announce president Mark Shapiro today, so it seems likely that LaCava will be announced as the GM — at least on a temporary basis — today as well.
Toronto’s GM position was vacated last week when now-former GM Alex Anthopoulos turned down a new contract and resigned due to reported differences with incoming president Mark Shapiro. Blue Jays ownership also reportedly promised Shapiro full authority over player personnel decisions, meaning Anthopoulos’ extension essentially came along with a demotion in terms of his standing within the organization.
As Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi writes today, LaCava’s ties to Shapiro date back to 2002, when he served as a national cross-checker with Cleveland during Shapiro’s time as general manager there. LaCava joined the Blue Jays’ front office that October as a special assistant to then-GM J.P. Ricciardi. He was named assistant GM in 2007 and has since gained traction as a GM candidate around the league, interviewing for the Angels’ GM vacancy this summer. The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review’s Rob Biertempfel reminds that LaCava, a Pittsburgh native, interviewed for the Pirates’ GM job in 2007 before Neal Huntington was hired (Twitter link).
The Jays face many questions this offseason, including whether or not to exercise R.A. Dickey‘s $12MM club option or pay him a $1MM buyout — they’re reportedly planning to exercise it — and whether or not to make a qualifying offer to Marco Estrada, as Davidi notes. However, the Blue Jays are also faced with the possibility of having to fill three rotation spots if Estrada and David Price depart and Mark Buehrle retires, as many expect. Both Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna, who came through the minors as starters, are options, but shifting one or both to the rotation will create holes in the ‘pen and raise 2016 innings concerns.
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Murphy, Orioles, Yankees, Shapiro
The coming offseason will tell us quite a but about how Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski values draft picks versus free agents, writes WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. As Bradford points out, Dombrowski never signed a free agent that had rejected a qualifying offer while serving as Tigers’ GM (he did, however, re-sign Victor Martinez, when letting him walk would’ve netted a comp pick), and Boston’s No. 12 overall selection in the 2016 draft is the second-highest unprotected pick, making it that much more difficult to surrender. The Sox will be connected to top pitchers like Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann, Hisashi Iwakuma and Wei-Yin Chen, in addition to already having been connected to outfielder Alex Gordon, Bradford notes, but each would require parting with that premium pick.
A few more notes from the AL East…
- The Orioles like Daniel Murphy and could show interest in him this offseason writes MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko, though Kubatko himself admits that it is difficult to see how Murphy fits onto the roster. Jonathan Schoop and Manny Machado have Murphy’s two primary positions locked down, although as Kubatko notes, Murphy has experience a first base, and the O’s have the DH spot available as well. Murphy could, conceivably, rotate through those four spots in the lineup, giving Machado and Schoop breathers in the field and serving as insurance in the event of an injury. Nonetheless, he seems like an imperfect fit, or at least one that may not address the club’s top need, which is in the rotation.
- Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun writes that while Darren O’Day might be the likeliest of the Orioles‘ impending free agents to return, the chances still aren’t great. O’Day could receive interest as a closer on the open market, Connolly notes, and the O’s showed last winter in letting Andrew Miller walk that they weren’t interested in paying closer money for a pitcher that would function as a setup man for the team. Connolly adds how important O’Day is to Baltimore’s pitching staff from a clubhouse leadership standpoint, though, also pointing to the Royals in highlighting the importance of having a dominant eighth/ninth inning combo at the back of a bullpen.
- Chad Jennings of the Journal News provides an early offseason checklist for the Yankees, noting that the club has six players on the 60-day disabled list but will only open up four spots via departing free agents. Jennings points out that Sergio Santos (one of the aforementioned 60-day players) is an easy candidate to be removed from the 40-man roster, and Diego Moreno, also on the 60-day DL, could be designated for assignment if the team doesn’t view him as part of the future. Other candidates include Domingo German, Austin Romine, Chris Martin and Andrew Bailey. Jennings also looks at Brendan Ryan‘s mutual option and takes a look back at the Yankees’ recent early-November moves, noting that we shouldn’t rule out a few relatively notable transactions in the next couple of weeks.
- Incoming Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro, who will be formally announced at a press conference this afternoon, has a history of trading for unheralded prospects that blossom into stars, writes Sportsnet’s Nick Ashbourne. As Ashbourne points out, Shapiro acquired Coco Crisp, Travis Hafner, Shin-Soo Choo, Michael Brantley, Corey Kluber and Yan Gomes in various trades despite the fact that none ranked higher than seventh on Baseball America’s pre-season prospect rankings for the organization from which they were acquired. Excluding Brantley, none ranked better than 16th. There were some notable missteps, trading away Brandon Phillips and Chris Archer too soon, but it’s an impressive history nonetheless. Shapiro will, of course, have a significant increase in financial resources with Toronto, but the Jays aren’t the type of team that can fill out its roster solely through spending, so a keen eye for undervalued prospects will be an important trait. Shapiro currently sits atop the Jays’ baseball operations pyramid after GM Alex Anthopoulos stunningly left the team last week, reportedly due to differences with Shapiro and due to the fact that ownership promised Shapiro baseball operations autonomy when hiring him.
Cafardo On Kapstein, Amaro, Mattingly, Zobrist, Kapler
In his latest column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discussed the role of former Red Sox advisor Jeremy Kapstein. Newly installed club president Dave Dombrowski did not extend Kapstein’s contract. The former player agent had worked with the Red Sox for 14 years as a senior advisor of baseball projects. Kapstein once represented a number of top players and was among the first to use statistics in arbitration cases. He’ll seek a new role elsewhere.
Here’s more from the column:
- Freshly minted first base and outfield coach Ruben Amaro Jr. is already familiar with many of Boston’s outfielders. While with the Phillies, he pursued Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and prospect Manuel Margot in trade negotiations for Cole Hamels. Former Phillies closer Brad Lidge noted that Amaro was comfortable spending time in the clubhouse with players, so he should adjust well to his new role.
- Don Mattingly is the Marlins eighth manager in the last six seasons. The last manager, Dan Jennings, was recently let go after he was told he would return to his former job as GM. The club owes him about $2MM. Mattingly is said to have agreed to a four-year deal although financial details have yet to be disclosed. Marlins fans may recall the four-year, $10MM contract signed by Ozzie Guillen prior to 2012. It serves as a warning to Mattingly that a long term of contract or high AAV will not ensure job security in Miami.
- As reported earlier this week, Ben Cherington has joined the sports management program at Columbia University. That hasn’t stopped the Pirates from pursuing him for a front office role. Cafardo wonders if Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro might show interest too. In my opinion, the Blue Jays job might not be a fit since Cherington walked away from a similar situation in Boston.
- One AL executive worries about Ben Zobrist‘s age. “Ben is 35 years old. He keeps in great shape and does the job, but he’s not someone you’re going to devote big dollars to over a long-term deal.” Of course, his agent, Alan Nero, believes a three or four-year deal should be well within reach. Nero and the Royals have not discussed an extension.
- The Orioles will bring back pitching coach Dave Wallace. According to a source, manager Buck Showalter asked him to stay. The Orioles pitching staff had a rough season after outperforming their peripherals for a few years. Free agent Wei-Yin Chen will be difficult to replace if he signs elsewhere. The club also has to carefully manage top prospect Dylan Bundy. He’s missed most of the last three seasons after making a couple relief appearances as a 19-year-old in 2012. He’ll be out of options.
- Team sources label Gabe Kapler has the leading candidate for the Dodgers managerial job. Kapler “speaks the same language” as president Andrew Friedman and they have an established working relationship. While Kapler has not managed in the majors, he “drew rave reviews” while managing with the Red Sox Single-A affiliate.
Quick Hits: GMs, Johnson, Honeycutt
GM Alex Anthopoulos’ departure from the Blue Jays‘ GM job is connected to the phenomenon of “title inflation” thoughout the industry, FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron writes. Previously, the GM was typically the top executive in charge of baseball personnel decisions, but increasingly, teams are hiring former GMs to be presidents of baseball operations, to whom GMs report. For example, Theo Epstein is the Cubs’ president of baseball operations, while Jed Hoyer is their GM. The Red Sox, Dodgers and several other teams have similar arrangements. In Anthopoulous’ case, the Blue Jays are replacing former president Paul Beeston with Mark Shapiro, who was formerly the Indians’ GM. Under Beeston, who did not have a baseball operations background, Anthopoulos had a great deal of authority to make player personnel moves. The Blue Jays have denied that the nature of Anthopoulos’ job would have changed under Shapiro, and there appear to have been personality differences between Anthopoulos and Shapiro that contributed to Anthopoulos’ decision to leave. One potential portion of the problem, though, likely was the perception (or reality) that the Blue Jays installed a baseball operations employee above Anthopoulos. As Cameron notes, it’s becoming increasingly common for teams to do just that, reducing the power of GMs for a dozen organizations around the game. Perhaps, Cameron suggests, Anthopoulos’ position with his next club could be president of baseball operations. Here’s more from around the game.
- Red Sox lefty Brian Johnson was unharmed in a carjacking yesterday in Florida, Florida Today reports (hat tip: CBS Sports’ David Brown). Johnson was with a group of people at a convenience store when the accused assailant allegedly approached a member of Johnson’s party, demanded the keys to the vehicle in which Johnson was riding, and shot a bullet into the ground, a fragment of which hit one of Johnson’s companions in the leg. Gould was then arrested after a high-speed chase. Johnson, who MLB.com currently ranks the Sox’ fourth-best prospect, is coming off a successful season at Triple-A Pawtucket and made his big-league debut in July.
- Pitching coach Rick Honeycutt is about to sign an extension with to stay with the Dodgers, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi reports (Twitter links). The plan is for Honeycutt to remain as a pitching coach for two more seasons, then transition into a special assistant role. The Dodgers and manager Don Mattingly recently parted ways, of course, but the Dodgers hope that retaining Honeycutt will help the team ease the transition to a new manager.
Heyman’s Latest: Blue Jays, Wieters, Gordon, Yost, Cespedes
Here’s the latest from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman:
- Executives throughout the game hold new Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro in high regard, and they’re surprised that GM Alex Anthopoulos would have the fortitude to walk away from a five-year extension when there don’t seem to be any other similar jobs out there. They do note, however, that the deliberative Shapiro and the fast-thinking Anthopoulos seemed like they might not work together well. The course of their discussions following Shapiro’s hire might demonstrate why — Heyman writes that Shapiro felt like he was being appropriately supportive, while the overworked Anthopoulos might have needed a little more encouragement. With Anthopoulos gone, Shapiro will likely hire assistant GM Tony La Cava, who Shapiro once worked with in Cleveland, as interim GM. La Cava and Indians exec Ross Atkins could be candidates for the permanent position. Manager John Gibbons, meanwhile, will likely return next season.
- There’s a “decent chance” the Orioles will extend a qualifying offer to Matt Wieters. If they do, they’ll hope he doesn’t accept it, but they might think there’s a good chance he doesn’t, given that Scott Boras is his agent.
- The Royals would like to keep Alex Gordon and could offer him a four-year deal, although Gordon might be able to get five from another team. The Cubs, White Sox, Astros and Orioles are among the many teams that could be interested.
- The Royals appear likely to look for an outfielder and a pitcher this winter, although they know they don’t have a chance of re-signing Johnny Cueto. They could also extend the contract of manager Ned Yost after the season, and GM Dayton Moore’s contract could also be a priority. Both are signed through 2016.
- The Mets appear increasingly likely to allow Yoenis Cespedes to depart via free agency, Heyman writes. The Mets could then focus on spending their available funds on keeping their young pitchers.
East Notes: Anthopoulos, Wieters, Nationals, Chen
Blue Jays chairman Edward Rogers says the team made a serious effort to keep now-departed GM Alex Anthopoulos, and that Anthopoulos’ role with the team would not have been significantly different following the arrival of new president Mark Shapiro, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet writes. “[J]ust reading a lot of the press, there was a notion that in his renewal offer, somehow his job had changed. His job had not changed at all,” says Rogers. “His direct manager will change, but his breadth of scope and responsibility had not changed. We had full confidence in him.” Rogers notes that the Jays tried to reassure Anthopoulos about their change in leadership by offering him a long-term extension but allowing him to depart after a year if he wanted. “Our notion was let’s try it for a year and see if that would have worked,” Rogers says. Reporting earlier this week indicated that the Jays had promised to give Shapiro final decision-making authority in decisions about player acquisitions and departures. Here’s more from the East divisions.
- The Nationals have been linked to free agent Matt Wieters, but a source tells MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko that the team is not interested in signing him. Incumbent Nats catcher Wilson Ramos is coming off a miserable .229/.258/.358 season, Wieters’ agent Scott Boras has plenty of Nationals clients, and the catching market is thin, but it sounds like the Nats could look elsewhere to address the position. Kubatko notes that the Braves are a more logical destination for Wieters, who has a residence in the Atlanta area.
- It would make sense for the Orioles to pursue a reunion with free agent starter Wei-Yin Chen, but that doesn’t mean they’ll actually be able to re-sign him, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun writes. Chen has been effective, and the Orioles need pitching and likely won’t pursue the very top free agents. The 30-year-old Chen will likely get a five-year deal, however, and the O’s will likely be reluctant to make a commitment of that length. There’s a good chance Chen will end up with a West Coast team.
East Notes: Jennings, Olivera, Jays GM, Red Sox
As he departs the Marlins, Dan Jennings issued a statement thanking the team (via MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro). He indicated that the club called him yesterday to tell him he “was being relieved” from his general manager duties, calling that move “sad and regrettable” but expressing that he respected the decision and would look back on his time in Miami with fondness. Jennings is said to be receiving strong interest from other clubs around baseball now that he’s a free agent.
Here’s more form the east:
- Recent Braves acquisition Hector Olivera is expected to spend time at both third base and left field in the Puerto Rican winter league, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports. The organization hopes to add to Olivera’s defensive capabilities while getting an idea of “what their needs might be over the next few years,” says Bowman. Atlanta would surely prefer to feel comfortable putting Olivera in either spot, as it would open up ample flexibility in the club’s developmental and acquisition plans.
- It’s still a bit early to get a read on what the Blue Jays will do to replace Alex Anthopoulos in their general manager’s role, but Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports that president Mark Shapiro does intend to hire a day-to-day GM while holding onto final decisionmaking authority. He will also be able to hire away at least one or two front office members from the Indians if he wishes, so long as the hirings are promotions. Morosi tosses out a few hypothetical matches. Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star did the same last night.
- Clubs around baseball are gearing up to talk trades with new Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, writes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Dombrowski has shown a willingness both to promote young players aggressively and to ship them out in trades, and that makes for a fascinating pairing with the organization’s highly-regarded talent base.