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Blue Jays Unlikely To Trade Josh Johnson

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The Blue Jays currently sit 11.5 games out of first place in the AL East, but even if they become sellers, rival executives tell ESPN's Jerry Crasnick that the Jays aren't likely to trade Josh Johnson. The right-hander's trade value is too low currently thanks to his 5.16 ERA and trip to the disabled list earlier this year, so Toronto is more likely to hang onto him and make a qualifying offer following the season (Twitter links).

Johnson, 29, was acquired by Toronto in the offseason's blockbuster deal with the Marlins. He's disappointed thus far in terms of ERA, though his K/9 (9.1), BB/9 (3.1) and ground-ball rate (44 percent) are in the vicinity of his career norms. Both xFIP and SIERA feel his ERA should be in the mid-3.00 range. Johnson's chief problem has been a bloated homer-to-flyball ratio (14.7 percent) that's nearly double his career rate.

A one-year qualifying offer for Johnson would be worth approximately $13.8MM (as noted by Joel Sherman of the New York Post this morning) — a reasonable gamble for a pitcher with Johnson's track record of success (though he also has a storied injury history). Were he to decline the offer and sign with a new club, the Blue Jays would receive an additional first-round pick, and his new team would lose its first-round selection. Because the Jays were unable to sign 2013 first-rounder Phil Bickford, Johnson declining and signing elsewhere would give them three picks in the first round of the 2014 draft — the same scenario their division rivals, the Yankees, enjoyed in 2013.

Tim Dierkes recently listed Johnson in his glimpse at the trade market for starting pitchers (though it appears he's no longer in the running), and Johnson ranked ninth on the latest installment of Tim's 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings.

Matt Garza Rumors: Tuesday

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On January 8th, 2011, the previous Cubs front office led by GM Jim Hendry finalized a trade that brought Matt Garza (and Fernando Perez and Zach Rosscup) to Chicago from the Rays for Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Robinson Chirinos, Sam Fuld, and Brandon Guyer.  At the time, ESPN's Buster Olney heard that Andrew Friedman and the Rays "didn't get much in the way of high-end prospects; more depth type guys than impact."  Archer, 24, seems ready to challenge that evaluation as a member of the Rays' rotation, while Lee, a 22-year-old shortstop, was knocking on the door of the Majors until a knee injury ended his season in April.  It's clear now the Cubs gave up a huge haul to acquire three years of Garza; now their new regime is marketing the remaining two to three months of his services to recoup as much young talent as possible.  The latest:

  • Jon Heyman of CBS Sports echoes Sullivan's earlier report that the Rangers aren't willing to include Martin Perez in a trade for Garza. The Red Sox are said to be "thinking about" Garza and would be a major threat if they entered the fray, according to Heyman. Boston has many pitching prospects acquired by Theo Epstein during his time as the team's GM. The Diamondbacks are in the mix as well, though they may prefer Jake Peavy. The Cubs are likely to place more emphasis on ceiling than proximity to the Major Leagues, according to Heyman, with a slight preference for pitching as opposed to position players.

Earlier Updates

  • The Rangers, Cardinals, Pirates, Indians, Blue Jays, and Dodgers "are the strongest pursuers" with a handful of other teams showing at least cursory interest in Garza, writes David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com.  A handful of club executives who spoke to Kaplan consider Garza a very strong No. 3 starter, for whom the Cubs have an "exceptionally high" asking price.  Kaplan adds that the Rangers and Blue Jays "are both deciding how far they want to go to acquire Garza."  Kaplan's baseball personnel experts feel the Cubs will come close but fall short of the Brewers' Zack Greinke package from last summer, which consisted of shortstop Jean Segura and pitchers Johnny Hellweg and Ariel Pena.  Complicating that comparison is the fact that Segura raised his stock considerably this year; at the time of the deal, Baseball America ranked him 43rd among prospects and ESPN's Keith Law had him outside of his top 50.
  • Baseball America's midseason top 50 prospects list came out last week.  Prospects in the 35-50 range who play for potential Garza suitors include Joc Pederson of the Dodgers, Anthony Ranaudo and Garin Cecchini of the Red Sox, Alen Hanson of the Pirates, Aaron Sanchez of the Blue Jays, Mike Olt of the Rangers, Kolten Wong of the Cardinals, and Adam Eaton of the Diamondbacks.  Kaplan notes that the Rangers are "thought to be dangling" Olt, a third baseman.  A lot of the position players named here either seem unlikely to be traded or aren't great fits for the Cubs, who might prefer to get a pitcher as the headliner.
  • The personnel heads who spoke to Joel Sherman of the New York Post picture Garza going to the Rangers, who have the need and the goods to make a deal.  22-year-old southpaw Martin Perez "could be a key element for the Cubs to move Garza to Texas," writes Sherman.  The Rangers are not going to give up Perez, writes MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.  He names Neil Ramirez, Carlos Pimentel, Leury Garcia, and Luis Sardinas as more realistic possibilities.

Quick Hits: Wilpon, Rios, Mozeliak, Blue Jays

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National League All-Star starter Matt Harvey has become a well-known name around baseball…though not necessarily a well-known face.  Harvey personally explored his relative anonymity in a comedy bit tonight on The Late Show With Jimmy Fallon (YouTube link).  If it makes Harvey feel better, I rarely hear, "Hey, are you Mark Polishuk from MLB Trade Rumors?!" when I'm strolling around New York.  Here's some news from around baseball on the eve of the All-Star Game…

  • Jeff Wilpon promised that the Mets are willing to spend in 2014, the team COO said in an interview on WFAN radio (and partially transcribed by Newsday's Neil Best).  The Mets will be helped when the Johan Santana and Jason Bay contracts expire this winter, which will by themselves free up $43.625MM in payroll space.  "We haven't set a payroll for next year, but I can tell you we're ready to invest with those big contracts coming off the books," Wilpon said. "We have the money to invest. We're going to invest it prudently. Sandy [Alderson] is going to set a path."
  • The Rangers could avoid giving up top prospects for White Sox right fielder Alex Rios, depending on how much of Rios' contract Texas is willing to eat, ESPN Dallas' Richard Durrett writes.  Rios is owed roughly $4.85MM for the rest of 2013, $12.5MM in 2014 and a $13.5MM club option for 2015 that can be bought out for $1MM.  The Rangers are one of several teams interested in acquiring Rios, though his trade stock has dipped due to a six-week slump.
  • “A lot of teams you think might normally would be breaking things up aren’t,” Cardinals GM John Mozeliak told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “There just aren’t a lot of players that are truly available. That could change. That’s my observation today.”  The Cardinals are known to be interested in acquiring starting pitching and have recently been connected to Matt Garza, though the Cards aren't too keen to trade within the NL Central and are unlikely to make a deal that would cost them one of their top prospects.
  • Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Brett Cecil all tell Sportsnet's Shi Davidi that the Blue Jays already have the talent to turn their season around.  Bautista, for one, doesn't think GM Alex Anthopoulos necessarily needs to make any further roster additions.  “Alex is not out on the field playing for us, we’re totally capable of playing a lot better baseball than we’ve shown, we just need to play better as a team,” Bautista said.  If the Jays don't make any moves, Bautista "wouldn’t look too much into it" since Anthopoulos “made plenty of moves in the off-season to make our team the best team that he could put on the field.”
  • The three prospects acquired by the Nationals in the Michael Morse trade have performed well for Washington thus far, MASNsports.com's Byron Kerr observes.  Right-handers A.J. Cole and Blake Treinen have pitched well at high A-ball and Double-A, respectively, while southpaw Ian Krol reached the Majors and delivered a 1.80 ERA, 13 strikeouts and just one walk over 15 relief innings for the Nats.
  • Chase Lambin turned 34 years last week and has played 12 years of professional baseball in the minors and in Japan, but the veteran has still yet to reach the Major Leagues.  Kent Babb of the Washington Post profiles Lambin, who currently plays for the Royals' Triple-A affiliate.
  • The Mets' infamous long-long-term deferred contract with Bobby Bonilla is actually a pair of contracts that will pay the retired slugger $42MM between 2004 and 2035, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports.  While the Orioles are paying part of Bonilla's ongoing salary, the Mets are solely responsible for another 25-year deferred payment plan, this one to Bret Saberhagen.  The former two-time Cy Young Award winner has received $250K per year from the Mets since 2004.

Garza Likely To Be Traded This Week

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9:54pm: ESPN's Jim Bowden hears that there is an 80% chance Garza is dealt before his next start (Twitter link).  The Cubs have an off-day on Thursday and Jeff Samardzija is scheduled to start on Friday, so Garza's next start could come on Saturday at the earliest.  Bowden also listed the Diamondbacks as a possible Garza suitor, the first time we've heard that team in the mix, as well as the usual suspects of the Rangers, Nationals, Red Sox, Rockies and (to a lesser degree) the Indians.

12:51pm: Kaplan is hearing that Garza will be moved by Saturday, though the Cubs will still make sure that someone meets their price as opposed to rushing a trade. One AL scout tells Kaplan that the Cubs are in a "phenomenal spot to land a tremendous deal" because Garza has looked so strong of late (Twitter links).

12:46pm: Following his recent string of success, teams are willing to engage Cubs president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer in serious trade talks over the All-Star break, according to David Kaplan of CSN Chicago. A former general manager told Kaplan on Sunday that it's become "crystal clear" to other teams that Garza is at 100 percent.

A second "significant industry source" told Kaplan that the Rangers, Blue Jays and Indians are all involved in talks for Garza, but that the Cardinals are the dark horse in the pursuit of Garza. St. Louis saved loads of money by letting Albert Pujols walk, and their farm system is rife with high-upside prospects. Hoyer and Epstein will have no problem dealing Garza within the division, writes Kaplan, though he cautions that the Cardinals themselves (as well as the Pirates) may be hesitant to deal top prospects to a division rival.

Garza, 29, has a 3.17 ERA with 7.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 39.8 percent ground-ball rate in 71 innings for the Cubs this season, his final year before free agency.

Garza Informed He’ll Likely Be Traded

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11:35pm: Garza denies being informed he will likely be traded, MLB.com's Carrie Muskat tweets.

3:30pm: The Cubs have informed Matt Garza he will likely be traded after contract talks failed to produce an extenstion, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The Rangers and Indians, according to Heyman, are clearly interested in Garza while the Red Sox are waiting upon some clarity on the return of injured starter Clay Buchholz. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are believed to be a stealth player for the fifth-ranked free agent on MLBTR's 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings. Yesterday, we learned the Blue Jays are "front runners" in the Garza trade derby, but Heyman writes there is little to no evidence, at the moment, they are actively involved.

Heyman reports the hangup in the negotiations between Garza and the Cubs is over the average annual value of the deal. Just last night, Garza still pegged the odds of returning to Chicago as 50/50.

AL Notes: Rangers, Blue Jays, Orioles, Rodriguez

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If you're looking for some interesting reading late into this Saturday night, you might try one of these two pieces. Recent Rangers acquisition and all-time great hitter Manny Ramirez may have remade himself over three months in Taiwan, writes Sam Graham-Felsen, or he may have just kept being Manny. Either way, with a strong start to his Triple-A assignment, Ramirez could be close to a fascinating return to the bigs. Just as unlikely, if not moreso, is the path of Blue Jays reliever Steve Delabar from washout to All Star; Harry Pavlidis of the Washington Post has the story. Elsewhere in the American League …

  • While the Cubs' Matt Garza currently pitches in the National League, Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com says that he could soon return to the AL. Levine reports that the Rangers and Blue Jays are the "front runners" in acquiring Garza's services for the balance of 2013. Though the Rangers have frequently been mentioned as pursuers of Garza, who figures to be the top starter available, the Jays have generally not been placed atop the list. Nevertheless, Levine says that Toronto has been very active in scouting the righty over his last three starts. As for Texas, Levine says that power-hitting prospect Mike Olt would probably be included in a deal.
  • Another American League club, the Orioles, is likely out on Garza, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN.com. After already dealing for one Chicago starter, Scott Feldman, Baltimore apparently believes that Garza will require too large a commitment in prospects and cash to warrant a deal.
  • If the Yankees were still hoping to get a contribution this year from fallen star Alex Rodriguez, the odds appear to be on the downturn. Bill Madden and Teri Thompson of the New York Daily News report that, after learning today of the nature of MLB's case against him arising out of the Biogenesis scandal, Rodriguez's representatives could be contemplating an attempt at a "plea deal" that could result in a 150-game suspension. (That a "clearly shaken" A-Rod reportedly went on to engage in yet another dust-up with the club over his rehab situation could be another hurdle to his return.)
  • With Rodriguez and possibly other players considering such an arrangement to limit the scope of punishment, and the league reportedly prepared to move aggressively after the All-Star break, it is looking more and more likely that the impact of the scandal will be felt this season. While the potential for a drawn-out process remains, any agreements to bypass the appeals procedure and agree to penalties would presumably result in a more immediate imposition of suspensions.

Blue Jays Sign Brentz, Tellez; Do Not Sign Bickford

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The official signing deadline for this year's draft has now passed, and the Blue Jays made some last-minute splashes. Toronto signed 11th-rounder Jake Brentz for a hefty $700K bonus and 30th-round pick Rowdy Tellez for a record-setting $850K bonus, according to Baseball America's Callis (Twitter links). However, Callis also tweets the team was not able to reach an agreement with first-round pick Phil Bickford, who will attend college at Cal State Fullerton.

Reports that the Blue Jays were unlikely to sign the No. 10 overall pick first surfaced yesterday. The team will now be awarded the No. 11 pick in the 2014 draft as compensation for failing to sign the right-hander. Bickford is the only first-rounder from this year's draft not to sign.

The assigned slot values of all picks after the 10th round is $100K, meaning that the Blue Jays went $750K over slot to sign Tellez and $600K over slot to sign Brentz. Tellez's bonus is the largest ever under the new CBA for a player selected after the 10th round of the draft. However, the Blue Jays' total spend is still within the confines of their draft pool, even without Bickford's money, as noted in Baseball America's draft database.

Tellez ranked 59th on Baseball America's list of Top 500 draft prospects and 99th according to MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo. BA called him the "best left-handed power bat in this year's draft class," noting that he also has a good feel for hitting and moves well for his 6'5", 230-pound frame. While he's seen time in the outfield, Tellez profiles as a first baseman. Tellez is advised by Phil Ortiz of the Primo Sports Group.

Brentz's signing comes just one day after reports stated that he was unlikely to sign. The prep lefty out of Missouri ranked 45th among draft prospects according to ESPN's Keith Law and 80th on BA's Top 500. In fact, Law actually had Brentz ranked ahead of Bickford. Law wrote that Brentz may be "the best pure left-handed arm in the draft class," praising his upper-90s fastball but noting that his curveball is a work in progress. Brentz is advised by Jason Wood of Arland Sports.

Blue Jays Do Not Expect To Sign First-Rounder Bickford

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3:30pm: Jim Callis of Baseball America spoke with a person who is "in the know" on the Bickford situation and confirmed that Bickford is likely to attend Cal State Fullerton. Callis adds that it's not a physical issue preventing Bickford from signing and reminds readers that Bickford's pre-draft asking price was $4.25MM (Twitter links).

Callis also tweets that it's starting to look like the Jays won't sign 11th-round pick Jake Brentz, who was regarded as a second- or third-round talent. Baseball America had ranked Brentz 80th among draft prospects, while ESPN's Keith Law ranked him 45th. Brentz is committed to the University of Missouri. As Callis notes, the Blue Jays may only spend about $2MM on this year's draft.

10:36am: The Blue Jays do not expect to sign first-round pick Phil Bickford, GM Alex Anthopoulos told reporters including broadcaster Mike Wilner (Twitter link).  The issue is not money, adds Wilner.

The Blue Jays drafted Bickford, a hard-throwing prep righty, tenth overall.  He was a late riser on draft boards.  In their scouting report, Baseball America noted that Bickford "could be a tough sign away from Cal State Fullerton."  The Jays will receive the 11th overall pick as compensation next year if they fail to sign Bickford by tomorrow's 4pm central time deadline.  The Blue Jays are believed to have offered the slot value of $2,921,400, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  Toronto previously failed to sign their first-round pick in 2011, Tyler Beede, as well as supplemental round pick James Paxton in '09.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

White Sox Notes: Hahn, Thornton

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With the second-worst record in the American League and plenty of useful veterans, the White Sox are a clear seller this month.  The team's prime trade chips are Alex Rios, Matt Thornton, Matt Lindstrom, and perhaps Jake Peavy and Jesse Crain when they return from the disabled list.  It's less clear whether the Sox would consider trading Alexei Ramirez, Paul Konerko, John Danks, and Alejandro De Aza.  The latest:

  • "The bulk of our struggles this year have been on the offensive side. That's something we are going to have to improve," GM Rick Hahn told reporters yesterday, including Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.  Though Hahn wouldn't address trade rumors or the July 31st deadline, Gonzales takes this to mean Hahn will lean toward hitters in making deals this month.  Hahn has dispatched scouts to evaluate prospects from the Braves, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Red Sox, writes Gonzales.
  • The White Sox seek "high-end prospects" for Thornton, a source tells Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com.  The 36-year-old is having his worst year in recent memory, with a 4.00 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.33 HR/9, and 44.3% groundball rate in 27 innings.  He's been better against left-handed hitters, though they've authored three of the four home runs he's surrendered.  With a $6MM club option for 2014, Thornton can be more than a rental.
  • Regarding the idea of trading ace Chris Sale, Jim Margalus of South Side Sox writes, "Hahn would pretty much have to get two stars back to justify it. Otherwise, it's getting way too cute."  Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports notes today that a large contingent of scouts are watching Sale.

Blue Jays Release Ramon Hernandez

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The Blue Jays released catcher Ramon Hernandez, according to a Buffalo Bisons press release.

Hernandez was designated for assignment by the Rockies in March, then traded to the Dodgers, and then designated by the Dodgers and released in June.  The Blue Jays inked him to a minor league deal, but he appeared in only five games for the Bisons.

Hernandez, 37, was an All-Star with the Athletics in 2003.  With 169 career home runs, he ranks eighth all-time among Venezuelans.  Among those who have caught at least 1,000 games, Hernandez's home run total ranks 22nd all-time.

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