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Yu Darvish Links: Yankees, Jays, Rangers, Mariners

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Here's the latest on the Yu Darvish sweepstakes…

  • Talking to MLBTR's Tim Dierkes (Twitter link), an unnamed agent believes Darvish's posting fee will reach $50MM, and the right-hander will then sign a five-year, $75MM contract with the winning team.
  • Brian Cashman told Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York that the Yankees scouted Darvish last season in Japan, but unsurprisingly didn't comment about whether or not the team would be interested in bidding for the right-hander.
  • Yankee management is unlikely to pay an expensive posting fee for Darvish given the club's spotty history with Japanese pitchers, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).  For what's it worth, the "Yankees' scouts love Darvish." 
  • In another tweet, Sherman lists the Rangers, Blue Jays, Nationals, Mariners and Royals as the favorites to land Darvish this winter, in that order.
  • The Mariners have scouted Darvish but, in the opinion of Larry Stone of the Seattle Times, the M's shouldn't make a bid since the team has so much young pitching coming up from the minors.  Stone also points out that "the Mariners have not become the haven for Japanese players that was predicted by some" when Hiroshi Yamauchi became the club's principal owner.  

Quick Hits: Red Sox, Wilson, Johnson, CBA

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Links for Wednesday night as the Rangers and Cardinals get the World Series started in St. Louis…

  • When Rangers GM Jon Daniels was trying to break into baseball, he applied for an internship with the Red Sox, according to Alex Speier of WEEI.com. Ben Cherington, now Boston's GM-in-waiting, was in charge of hiring a new intern for the Red Sox and he chose Jed Hoyer, now the Padres' GM, over Daniels. “I remember [Daniels'] quick mind and intelligence and I thought he had a resilience about him,” Cherington told Speier.
  • The Blue Jays scouted at least eight of C.J. Wilson's starts this season, according to Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun (on Twitter). The Jays could use starting pitching, as I explained earlier in the week, but their scouting trips may simply have been due diligence.
  • Kelly Johnson of the Blue Jays chatted with FanGraphs'  David Laurila about the challenge of changing leagues and the way he uses stats and video to improve his game.
  • ESPN.com's Buster Olney hears that MLB isn't close to adding a slotting system for draft bonuses in the ongoing collective bargaining negotiations. Executives doubt that Bud Selig would "dig in and fight" for slotting, since it could mean a prolonged dispute.

Quick Hits: Dodgers, Cardinals, Red Sox

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MLBTR has the rundown on your team's arbitration eligible players. Be sure to read Tim Dierkes' series for insight into how each team's offseason will develop. Here are the latest links from around MLB…

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays will look for a second baseman, relief pitching and rotation help this offseason. They might consider some of the top free agents available.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

  • Edwin Encarnacion, DH: $3.5MM club option with a $500K buyout (no Elias ranking) 
  • Jon Rauch, RP: $3.75MM club option with a $250K buyout (Type B ranking)

Free Agents

Trying to predict Alex Anthopoulos' next move is plain silly. A year ago this time, there seemed to be zero chance of trading Vernon Wells — and he's now an Angel. Before the 2011 season began, the Blue Jays' chances of acquiring Colby Rasmus seemed slim at best — yet he's Toronto's starting center fielder. There is no guessing what will happen next. A team that makes as many phone calls and weighs as many possibilities as the Blue Jays isn't going to be predictable.

We do know the Blue Jays need pitching and second base help. It's also fair to assume they'll consider a variety of trade possibilities throughout the offseason, given Anthopoulos' track record as a dealmaker. 

It's conceivable that the Blue Jays will be tempted by big names this offseason. Elite free agents such as Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, C.C. Sabathia and C.J. Wilson would make the Blue Jays better, but it doesn't appear that Anthopoulos will offer any six or seven-year deals. Even if the Jays offer mega-contracts, top free agents may hesitate to join a team that hasn't reached the postseason since 1993.

It's no secret Anthopoulos has scouted Yu Darvish. The Blue Jays appear to have some interest in the 25-year-old right-hander and it won't be a surprise if Toronto emerges as a serious bidder. He and Ricky Romero would be terrific at the top of the rotation and signing Darvish wouldn't force the Blue Jays to surrender one of their prized draft picks.

Anthopoulos has acknowledged he'd like to improve the rotation, but he says the Jays won't be in the market for back-of-the-rotation pitchers. The Athletics, Braves and Rays could be willing to trade starting pitching in the right deal this winter, so expect the Blue Jays to keep tabs.

Though Blue Jays fans have long anticipated the arrivals of Fielder and Pujols on the open market, those two probably aren't signing in Toronto and president Paul Beeston knows it. First baseman Adam Lind's breakout 2009 season has become a distant memory after consecutive seasons with OBPs under .300. He has not produced enough, but he did reach the 20-homer plateau again (26) while dealing with back issues. Edwin Encarnacion remains an alternative to Lind at first base. I expect his strong finish will be enough for the Blue Jays to exercise the $3.5MM option they hold for 2012.

The Blue Jays also have an option for Jon Rauch, who missed most of the season's final month and is recovering from a right knee cartilage tear. His basic and peripheral stats dropped off in 2011, so, barring a handshake agreement with Rauch, I expect the Blue Jays to decline their $3.75MM option and let the 33-year-old go without offering arbitration, despite his Type B status.

Three of the Blue Jays' four other Type B free agents have a good chance of obtaining an arbitration offer. There's a case for extending offers to Frank Francisco, Kelly Johnson and Jose Molina. All three could help the Blue Jays in 2012 and none would cost a prohibitive amount on a one-year deal. Shawn Camp, another Type B, gets ground balls and has been durable. While there's no doubt the Jays like the idea of getting a draft pick for Camp, he strikes out less than one batter per two innings and might cost $3MM, which reduces his chances of getting an arbitration offer.

If the Blue Jays offer arbitration to all eligible players except non-tender candidate Jesse Carlson and pick up Encarnacion's option while declining Rauch's, they'll have committed about $52MM to next year's payroll, not including minimum salary players. They've spent at least $70MM every season since 2006 and have publicly hinted at payrolls twice that high, so it's not a stretch to expect the Jays to have $20MM-plus at their disposal this offseason. It's also worth noting that the Blue Jays enjoy a stronger Canadian dollar than in years past.

Anthopoulos said after the season that he expects the Blue Jays to go outside of the organization for bullpen help, either through trades or free agency. This makes sense, though the Jays have some internal options. B.J. Ryan's contract is off the books, but the memory of his contract lives on. I don't expect the Jays to bid aggressively on the top free agent closers, especially those who cost draft picks.

Casey Janssen and Jesse Litsch both excelled out of the bullpen and will be back along with right-hander Carlos Villanueva. Dustin McGowan returned after a three-year absence and should contribute again next year — if healthy. Luis Perez and Brad Mills give the Jays left-handed options, but they're otherwise short on lefties after trading Marc Rzepczynski and will presumably want to add southpaws this offseason.

Second base will be another focal point for the Blue Jays. Kelly Johnson is one of the winter's most appealing free agent second basemen and Anthopoulos expects to discuss a possible deal with the 29-year-old. The free agent market offers few appealing alternatives, so Anthopoulos could turn to the trade market if Johnson declines arbitration and signs elsewhere. Many expect the Blue Jays will make a serious run at John McDonald, the popular defensive specialist Toronto traded to Arizona along with Aaron Hill.

There's also left field, where Travis Snider was the organization's most disappointing position player in 2011 after showing signs of breaking out in 2010. Expect Eric Thames to get a good shot at the starting job after hitting 12 homers and posting a .769 OPS in 2011. Meanwhile, Rajai Davis can be an extra outfielder, so the Blue Jays have sufficient left field depth.

The Jays also have Jose Bautista, arguably the best hitter in the game, so it's no surprise that they ranked fifth in the American League with 743 runs scored last year. They could score even more with a full season from Brett Lawrie, who hit .293/.373/.580 after being called up.

If they add relief pitching and at least one starter this offseason, the Blue Jays will have a more complete team. With the playoffs likely expanding by 2012 or 2013, talented prospects ascending through the system and the possibility of payroll rising, there's hope Toronto can soon contend for a playoff spot in baseball's least forgiving division. 

Davidoff On Red Sox, CBA, Rangers, Darvish

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In today's column, Ken Davidoff of Newsday tackles a number of topics including what's next for Boston.  Here are some highlights..

  • When the dust settles, the Red Sox are expected to name Ben Cherington as Theo Epstein's successor in Boston.  While the club could take one step toward closing their credibility gap by hiring an experienced manager to complement their rookie GM, that's not likely to be the case.  The Red Sox already view Cherington as having GM experience because of the work he has done with the organization.  They'll more likely look to hire someone with a willingness to utilize statistical analysis and work with the rest of the baseball operations department.
  • This year, MLB and the Players Association had hoped to announced their next collective-bargaining agreement during the World Series like they did in 2006.  However, with the World Series just three days away, people in the loop aren't optimistic.   The two sides are meeting virtually every day and the biggest rancor appears to be surrounding Bud Selig's desire for hard slotting in the amateur draft.  It's hard to imagine that this will result in any kind of a work stoppage, but it does seem like they'll miss out on the great PR opportunity that they were able to capture five years ago.
  • We don't see the Rangers and Angels as trading partners because there's too much anxiety over being burned.  However, the Rangers used to admire Halos catcher Mike Napoli from a distance, and were able to trade for him immediately after the Blue Jays acquired him.  Davidoff asked Daniels if he kept an eye on players in the divison whom he couldn't acquire by trade but could hope would get dealt to a different club so he could pounce.  For Daniels, it's not that clear-cut, but he says that he checks in when someone he's interested in moves out of the AL West.
  • Baseball officials are increasingly convinced that righthander Yu Darvish will be posted to the major leagues, and industry folks wonder how much will teams pay.  The Red Sox paid more than $51MM five years ago to talk with Daisuke Matsuzaka, and that hasn't panned out for them. The expectation is that in light of Boston's disappointment with Matsuzaka, teams won't bid as much for Darvish.

AL East Links: Johnson, Orioles, Ortiz

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Blue Jays prospect Travis d'Arnaud will have surgery to repair torn ligaments in his thumb after getting hurt while catching for Team USA at the World Cup in Panama, reports Bob Elliott of The Toronto Sun (on Twitter). Toronto acquired d'Arnaud from the Phillies in the Roy Halladay trade, and he's considered one of the very best prospects in all of baseball. Here are some links from the AL East…

  • Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com says one of the first things the Blue Jays have to do this offseason is figure out if Kelly Johnson fits into their long-term plans. "I thought Kelly did a nice job, and he's definitely in the mix for us," said GM Alex Anthopoulos. "We have an opening, he is a free agent, and in the coming weeks, we'll certainly reach out to his agent and talk to him, but it's hard to characterize where any of that is going to go."
  • The Orioles may expand their GM search beyond the names that have already been mentioned, reports ESPN's Buster Olney (on Twitter). Peter Schmuck of The Baltimore Sun says regardless of who is hired, their first priority will be fixing the team's player development system.
  • In another tweet, Olney speculates about a possible fit between the Blue Jays and David Ortiz. The soon-to-be-free agent DH would be a veteran mentor for their younger hitters, and he's close to Jose Bautista.

AL East Notes: Cashman, CC, Blue Jays, Darvish

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There's no shortage of news regarding AL East ballclubs so far this offseason, not the least of which is the Orioles' search for a new general manager. Click here for the latest on that story, and here are some other interesting items of note:

  • The Yankees will meet with GM Brian Cashman next week, and the sides are expected to hammer out a new contract without trouble, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Cashman's contract expired after this season.
  • Separately, Sherman examines which teams could be in on the bidding for Yankees starter CC Sabathia in the likely event of the left-hander opting out of his contract. As well, Sherman raises an interesting point: If some team swoops in with six- or seven-year offer, will the Yankees match? A case could be made against it, as the Bombers already have a few risky long-term deals on the books.
  • The Blue Jays do not require rival teams to seek permission to interview Toronto employees, explains Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. As we have already seen in a couple instances this offseason (and in offseasons past), many teams are not as liberal with this policy, but the Jays feel that they can attract strong employees with the promise of being able to move on if another opportunity arises.
  • Orioles player development director John Stockstill is in Japan to scout Yu Darvish, among others, a club source tells Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (Twitter link). Stockstill signed Koji Uehara, according to Connolly.
  • Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com has compiled a retrospective of Theo Epstein's tenure as Red Sox GM, listing Epstein's best and worst moves in trades, free agency and draft picks.

Latest On Orioles’ GM Search: Avila, Ricciardi

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The Orioles are searching for a successor to Andy MacPhail and we learned yesterday that they received permission to interview Diamondbacks executive Jerry Dipoto. Today, they're continuing to reach out to general manager candidates around the league. Here are the latest updates on Baltimore's search:

  • The Marlins (Dan Jennings) and Tigers (Al Avila) can prevent top executives from interviewing with the Orioles, as Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun points out. Both Jennings and Avila are on long-term deals, so it's possible that the Orioles would have to offer their teams compensation to complete a deal. The Marlins have denied teams permission to interview Jennings three times before, according to Connolly.
  • There's a sense that the Orioles haven't requested permission to speak with Avila or Dodgers executives Logan White and De Jon Watson, according to Connolly (Twitter link).
  • Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com hears that the Orioles haven't yet contacted J.P. Ricciardi about their job opening (Twitter link).
  • The Orioles received permission to interview Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava, according to Connolly (Twitter links). The interviews for LaCava and Dipoto haven't been set up yet and are expected to take place in Baltimore next week.
  • For more on LaCava and Dipoto, check out MLBTR's GM Candidate pieces from earlier in the summer.
  • The Orioles contacted the Marlins seeking permission to interview Dan Jennings, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (Twitter links). However, Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria is in Europe, so the decision is on hold.

Orioles GM Links: Dipoto, Reagins, Levine, Ricciardi

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Here's the latest from Baltimore as the O's look to replace Andy MacPhail…

  • The Diamondbacks have given permission for the Orioles to interview Jerry Dipoto, reports Scott Miller of CBSSports.com.  Dipoto is Arizona's senior VP of scouting and player development and served as the club's interim GM after Josh Byrnes was fired midway through the 2010 season.
  • Dipoto's interview should come this weekend, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.  The Orioles also hope to speak to Al Avila (Tigers), Dan Jennings (Marlins), Tony LaCava (Blue Jays), De Jon Watson and Logan White (both Dodgers), all of whom have been mentioned in connection to the Baltimore job.  Avila could be passed over since "the Orioles want to wrap up this process as soon as possible" and can't wait until the Tigers finish their playoff run.
  • Two names that will apparently not be part of the process, according to Kubatko, are former Angels GM Tony Reagins and Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine.  Both men could still resurface as candidates, Kubatko notes.  Given that Texas is still alive in the postseason, Levine could be facing the same issue as Avila.
  • J.P. Ricciardi is on the "short list of decision-makers" that the Orioles are considering, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney.  Since the O's are just starting their search, Olney says it's too early to say if Ricciardi or any others on the short list are favorites for the job.  Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports (via Twitter) that the Mets haven't received requests from any team to interview Ricciardi or Paul DePodesta about a general managing job.
  • No surprise here, but Olney says "it's pretty clear that Buck Showalter will have extensive influence in the selection of the Orioles' GM."

AL East Links: Red Sox, Jays, Yanks, Sabathia, O’s

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Some links from the only division with three 90-win teams in 2011…

  • WEEI.com's Alex Speier reports that the Red Sox will not interview anyone for their managerial opening until the status of GM Theo Epstein is resolved. The Cubs have asked permission to talk to Epstein about their GM vacancy.
  • SI.com's Jon Heyman reports (on Twitter) that teams are showing trade interest in Joey Votto, and "speculation around the game" is that the Blue Jays will be in the mix. Earlier tonight we heard that the Reds have not discussed trading Votto, however.
  • Unsurprisingly, the Yankees are looking for starting pitching and left-handed relievers, tweets Heyman. Our free agent list shows a number of attractive lefty relief options.
  • Amber Sabathia, wife of Yankees ace CC Sabathia, told Ken Davidoff of Newsday that her family is "definitely invested" in New York and that she considers it to be their home. Sabathia can choose to opt-out of his seven-year, $161MM deal this winter.
  • MLB.com's Britt Ghiroli looks both back and ahead with regards to the Orioles front office. President of baseball operations Andy MacPhail is stepping down when his contract expires at the end of the month.
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