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Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk will hold a Blue Jays-centric chat on 10-14-23 at 7:00PM CDT.  Click here to leave a question in advance.

The Blue Jays scored only one run in their two Wild Card Series games with the Twins, capping off a season of offensive disappointment.  With several position-player free agents perhaps on the way out of town, the Jays will try to retool and reinvigorate a shaky lineup.

Guaranteed Contracts

2024 financial commitments: $110.5MM
Total future commitments: $323MM

Option Decisions

  • Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF: $18MM mutual option ($500K buyout)
  • Chad Green, RP: $27MM club option covering 2024-26 seasons (if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option for 2024; if both options are declined, Blue Jays can then exercise a $21MM club option covering the 2024-25 seasons)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Blue Jays finished 29th of 30 teams in stolen-base percentage, 27th in Fangraphs’ BsR metric (baserunning runs above average), tied for 26th in sacrifice flies, and tied for 28th in sac hits overall.  Toronto also made the fifth-most outs on the bases of any club, while hitting into the fourth-most double plays.  Combined with middle-of-the-pack numbers in homers and production with runners in scoring position, and it wasn’t any surprise that the Jays had issues consistently generating offense, despite respectable or even impressive numbers in other offensive categories.

It was a startling step backwards for a team that, if anything, looked to be relying on its offense to carry a seemingly shaky rotation heading into 2023.  The offseason trades of Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. don’t tell the whole story of the lineup’s decline, since while Gurriel replacement Daulton Varsho struggled badly at the plate, the Jays’ larger problem was that almost all of their returning hitters took steps backwards.

Of every Blue Jays hitter who had at least 120 plate appearances for the team in both 2022 and 2023, only Cavan Biggio (from 97 to 103) improved his wRC+ over the two seasons.  Several other regulars took drastic drops — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from 133 to 118, George Springer from 133 to 104, Danny Jansen from 141 to 116, Alejandro Kirk from 129 to 96, and Whit Merrifield from 120 to 93.

The result was a season full of close, often low-scoring games that kept the Jays grinding from day one amidst the very competitive AL East race.  As it turned out, the rotation (as well as a very good bullpen and excellent defense) helped carry Toronto to another wild card berth, except just like in 2022, the Jays suffered a demoralizing two-game sweep.  The Twins only needed to score five runs over the two WCS games to top the scuffling Jays lineup, with base-running mistakes from Guerrero and Bo Bichette short-circuiting two of Toronto’s few possible rallies.

Some of the club’s better offensive performers are now hitting free agency, adding another layer of difficulty to the Blue Jays’ attempts to solve their hitting problems.  One would imagine the Jays would have interest in re-signing Kevin Kiermaier and Brandon Belt in particular, assuming Belt plays at all next season and foregoes retirement.  However, since both players stayed relatively healthy, they might be looking to move on to more lucrative deals or preferred locations elsewhere.  Kiermaier, for one, has publicly expressed his preference for playing on grass fields, so he might opt to finally seek out a natural surface after 11 seasons on the artificial grass in Tampa Bay and Toronto.

Matt Chapman is in the strange position of being both one of the winter’s top free agents, yet also a player with something to prove in 2024.  Chapman displayed his typically excellent third-base glovework, yet hit a modest .240/.330/.424 with 17 homers in 581 plate appearances — his 110 wRC+ was down from his 118 total in 2022.  Moreover, almost all of Chapman’s best offensive moments came in April, when he won AL Player of the Month honors.  From May 1 onward, Chapman had a subpar 84 wRC+ in 467 PA, and was further bothered by a finger injury over the season’s last two months.

With all this in mind, the Blue Jays might prefer to just receive draft pick compensation for Chapman, and let him walk in free agency rather than sign him to what will still very likely be a nine-figure free agent deal.  The decision on Whit Merrifield is easier since the Jays won’t be exercising their end of his $18MM mutual option, but if both Merrifield and Chapman leave, that’s suddenly two starting infield positions to be filled.

Since Varsho can take over center field for Kiermaier, that would leave third base, second base, left field, and DH as the open positions if all four of Belt, Kiermaier, Chapman, and Merrifield departed.  For DH, the Jays might try to replace Belt with another left-handed hitter who could semi-platoon with Kirk, and possibly seek out a lefty-swinger who could play more positions than just first base.  In that scenario, the Blue Jays might not have a true regular DH at all, but instead use the spot to give multiple players half-days off.  Rookie Spencer Horwitz might also factor into the picture as an in-house left-handed bat who can play first base.

(Since we’re talking designated hitters, cue the obligatory Shohei Ohtani mention.  As aggressive as Toronto has been in pursuing free agents during GM Ross Atkins’ tenure, it would count as a big surprise to see the Jays win the bidding for the record-setting contract it will take to land Ohtani.)

Returning to internal options, the Blue Jays figure to go that route for one of second base or third base.  Davis Schneider’s bat came back to reality in September, but the rookie’s hot start to his career has likely earned the mustachioed fan favorite a shot at at least a platoon job heading into Spring Training.  Biggio probably did enough to preserve his roster spot, but Santiago Espinal hit poorly and looks like a non-tender candidate.

Prospects Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, and Leo Jimenez all look set to make their MLB debuts in 2024, with Martinez and Barger in particular candidates for something closer to everyday roles.  Barger might ultimately be Toronto’s third baseman of the future, and while Martinez is a bit more of a question mark in regards to his eventual infield landing spot, his hitting potential is very intriguing.  By contrast, Jimenez is a work in progress hitting-wise, yet his glove will make him at least a backup middle infielder on a big league roster.

The Blue Jays would probably prefer to devote just one position for some combination of their in-house players, leaving the other infield spot open for a big league regular.  Infield-heavy teams like the Guardians, Cardinals, or even the division-rival Orioles could be fits as trade partners, and making a deal might be a preferred option for the Jays in finding a true upgrade since there isn’t a lot of depth in either the second or third base free agent markets.

That being said, Blue Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro has stated that the team plans to at least match its $215MM payroll (and estimated $248MM luxury tax number, putting the Jays over the first tax line).  With a good chunk of money coming off the books, this gives Toronto roughly $40-$45MM in spending capacity, and room to make another splashy move.

Looking at the infield market, then, bringing Jeimer Candelario or Justin Turner into the fold couldn’t be ruled out.  Candelario would be a longer-term signing, settling in at third base at least for a couple more seasons and then possibly moving into a first base/DH capacity if his defense declines or if Barger emerges as a legitimate third base option.  Turner could be an even better fit since he’d only require a shorter-term contract as he enters his age-39 season, but Turner could slide between both corner infield slots and DH as circumstances dictate.  It is also worth noting that the Blue Jays targeted Turner the last time that he was both a free agent and when the Jays last had a third-base vacancy.

Left field seems like the obvious position for a new bat to be added, again probably a left-handed hitter given the righty tilt of Toronto’s lineup.  Joc Pederson or former Jays targets Michael Brantley or Michael Conforto could be fits, and the resurgent Jason Heyward could be an option since the Jays will still be looking to keep their defense strong.  The switch-hitting Aaron Hicks figures to get attention from Toronto and several other teams, since he’ll only cost a minimum MLB salary because the Yankees are paying the remainder of his 2024-25 salaries.

If specifically left-handed hitting outfielders aren’t a must, then a reunion with Hernandez or Gurriel can’t be ruled out.  Hernandez’s numbers dropped off in his first season in Seattle, which figures to lower his free-agent price tag to some extent even if the Mariners will probably still issue him a qualifying offer.  If Hernandez didn’t get a QO but was still open to a one-year pillow contract as a way of elevating his profile for next winter’s free agent market, a return to Toronto might be feasible, as the Blue Jays had interest in Hernandez back at the trade deadline.

Turning to the pitching front, the Jays will likely still add an arm or two to the bullpen, though most of their relievers are still controlled in 2024.  The hard-throwing Jordan Hicks will draw plenty of interest around the league, and if he doesn’t re-sign, Toronto will look for someone else to bring some velocity to the back of the pen.

Some level of extra rotation help will be needed, since the odds of that top four starters all remaining as effective and healthy as they were in 2023 is quite slim.  But, for the first time in several seasons, the Blue Jays have the luxury of a mostly settled rotation.  Kevin Gausman was a Cy Young Award candidate, and Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi were all very good to solid over the course of the year.  For Berrios and Kikuchi in particular, they delivered tremendous bounce-back performances after struggling badly in 2022.

Hyun Jin Ryu pitched pretty well after returning from Tommy John surgery and could be a candidate to re-sign, but Ryu might be looking for a bigger contract than the Jays are willing to give considering how much money Toronto has already invested in its starters.  The Blue Jays could look for couple of veteran innings-eater types to compete for the fifth starter job and to provide depth, with an eye towards promoting star prospect Ricky Tiedemann in the second half if Tiedemann pitches well at Triple-A.

Alek Manoah is still ostensibly the fifth starter heading into 2024, yet the right-hander is now an X-factor after his unusual 2023 campaign.  Manoah had a 5.87 ERA over 87 1/3 innings, during a season that included a month-long stint at extended Spring Training to work on his mechanics, and no pitching appearances at all after August 10 due to unclear reasons, ranging from possible injury to some discord with the organization.

It’s anyone’s guess as to how Manoah will pitch next season, or perhaps even if he’ll pitch at all.  If there are some behind-the-scenes issues souring things, the Jays might prefer to part ways with Manoah altogether via trade.  Naturally his trade value is low at the moment, but since Manoah was a Cy Young candidate just in 2022, several teams will have interest in exploring if a change of scenery can revive his career.

Manoah’s situation is uniquely abnormal, yet it relates to the larger uncertainty over the players the Blue Jays were counting on as cornerstones.  Atkins has done a pretty solid job of adding productive free agents and trade pieces to this core group, but the Jays now face the increasingly worrisome possibility that this core isn’t as solid as once thought.  To this end, in the same way that Hernandez and Gurriel were traded to change the Jays’ offensive shape last winter, would they consider again trading from their core to remake the lineup?

It can be safely assumed that Bichette and (for contract size alone) Springer aren’t going anywhere.  Varsho and Kirk would each have some trade value but as sell-low type of players given their underwhelming batting numbers.  Plus, moving Varsho or Kirk would then open up another position that the Blue Jays would have to address — Varsho was basically always intended as Kiermaier’s eventual replacement in center field, while Kirk is insurance at catcher since Danny Jansen has had trouble staying off the injured list.

As wild as this concept would’ve sounded two seasons ago, could Guerrero then be a trade chip?  It would still be selling low in some regard, since Guerrero was only decent at the plate in 2023 and took a big step back defensively at first base.  But, Guerrero’s youth, superstar profile, and his MVP-level numbers in 2021 still give him plenty of trade value, and there are surely lots of teams who will look at his Statcast metrics and think a turn-around is inevitable.  Trading Guerrero could be seen as incredibly bold or as incredibly risky, and it might not be something the front office quite wants to consider just yet.

For one, the Blue Jays might want to see how Guerrero and the other regulars might respond to a new hitting strategy, since rumors have swirled all season about the fate of hitting coach Guillermo Martinez.  It has yet to be revealed how much (if any) overhaul is coming to the coaching staff, though that could be a logical way of making an internal shakeup since GM Ross Atkins has already announced that manager John Schneider will be returning in 2024.

Likewise, Shapiro announced that Atkins is returning, even if the president/CEO stated “there needs to be a higher level of transparency and communication with our players in our preparation and game-planning process.”  How the Blue Jays will make these changes remains to be seen, but simply getting their hitters back to their 2022 form (even as inconsistent as that season was) would make a world of difference to the Jays going forward.

Winning solves everything, as the cliche goes, but winning 89 games and making the postseason again wasn’t enough to clear the atmosphere that seemed to grind the Blue Jays down as the season wore on.  With Toronto’s fanbase becoming increasingly impatient for results, Atkins faces a pivotal offseason in determining how to fix the problems both on and off the field.

Mark Shapiro Discusses Upcoming Blue Jays Offseason

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The Blue Jays made the playoffs for the third time in the past four years but each trip resulted in a hasty 2-0 playoff sweep. The club’s president/CEO Mark Shapiro spoke to the media today, with Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet among those to relay the information. While Shapiro touched on a number of topics, the key takeaways broadly involve continuity, with the club planning to retain Ross Atkins as general manager and keep the 2024 payroll at a similar level to 2023.

The 2023 Jays club was constructed differently than the 2022 version. Offensive outfielders Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. were traded as glove-first players Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho were brought in. This had the expected result of the club faring better at run prevention but often struggling to score runs. In 2022, they finished fourth out of the 30 clubs in terms of plating runs but fell to a tie for 14th this year. But in terms of keeping runs off the board, they went from 13th to fifth. The overall effect was close to net neutral, as the club’s win tally fell from 92 to 89 but was still strong enough to get them back to the postseason, with the aforementioned quick exit.

It seems the club is satisfied enough with the regular season results to allow Atkins to continue in his role as general manager, a job he has held since the end of 2015. The club made the playoffs in 2016, advancing as far as the ALCS, before undergoing a quick rebuild with three losing seasons from 2017 to 2019. They started pushing their top prospects to the majors in that time, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette the most highly touted.

That led to the club making the playoffs in the shortened 2020 season, narrowly missing in 2021 despite winning 91 games, before getting back to the playoffs in the two most recent years. The lack of postseason success is surely frustrating for some fans, but the regular season results have been quite strong for four straight years in arguably the toughest division in the league, making it fairly logical that the club isn’t leaning towards huge changes.

“Ross needs to get better, but he’s done a good job,” Shapiro said today, adding that offense and baserunning are areas for potential improvement, as well as “communication of transparency” with players and staff.

Adding offense this winter will be a challenge since the free agent class is heavy on pitching and generally lighter on impact bats, but it sounds like the Jays should have some resources to attack the problem. Roster Resource calculates their 2023 payroll at $214MM and their competitive balance tax number at $248MM, their first time paying the luxury tax. There are some notable contracts coming off the books, including those of Hyun Jin Ryu, Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt and Kiermaier, with Whit Merrifield likely to be departing as well since mutual options are rarely picked up by both sides.

RR estimates the club’s 2024 payroll at $115MM right now, though a hefty arbitration class could add about $60MM to that and put them in the $175MM range. If they are willing to spend at similar levels nest year as Shapiro suggested, that should give them roughly $40MM or so to spend, perhaps a bit more if they end up non-tendering a couple of players from their arb class.

That money gives them some the potential to pursue various avenues this winter but, as mentioned, the free agent class skews towards pitching. The Jays are in good position in that department, with Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi all still under contract next year and the departure of Ryu opening one spot. The giant unknown right now is how much the Jays believe in Alek Manoah’s ability to bounce back next year, though they also have top prospect Ricky Tiedemann knocking on the door of the majors. The bullpen was also a strength this year and the club figures to retain Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Tim Mayza, Yimi García, Génesis Cabrera and others.

But more offense is certainly required and the club will have to replace the production of Chapman, Kiermaier, Belt and Merrifield just to break even in that regard. Belt had a wRC+ of 138 this year, though in a part-time/platoon role. The other three finished with a wRC+ between 110 and 93 but each brought some speed and/or defense to the table. The Jays could get some internal help from key prospects like Orelvis Martinez or Addison Barger but it’s fair to expect them to pursue external options as well.

Chapman is the top free agent third baseman and could be brought back to man the hot corner, but they could also pursue someone like Jeimer Candelario at a lower price point. Merrifield is one of the best second baseman available but the club could perhaps give Davis Schneider and Cavan Biggio some run there after some encouraging results this year.

Varsho could perhaps slide over to take Kiermaier’s spot in center, allowing the club to pursue a bat-first corner outfielder like Michael Conforto or Jorge Soler, or perhaps reuniting with an old friend like Gurriel or Hernández. Belt was in the designated hitter spot most days, so there’s any number of ways the club could go with that spot. Time will tell what specific targets the club has in mind but it seems they will have the ability to reload for what should be another fiercely competitive year in the American League East.

Ryan Goins Announces Retirement

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Eight-year MLB veteran Ryan Goins officially announced his retirement, via his X account.  “I was able to do some special things in my 14 years and developed relationships that will last a lifetime….So this is my official goodbye to playing the game, and my hello to the next chapter of my journey as a coach,” Goins wrote.  The infielder also paid tribute to his family, teammates, and several of his former teams, particularly the Blue Jays “for taking a chance on me and giving me my first shot.”

Goins was a fourth-round pick for Toronto in the 2009 draft, working his way up the minor league ladder and debuting in the Show in 2013.  His first five Major League seasons were spent with the Blue Jays, before then playing with the Royals in 2018 and then with the White Sox in 2019-20.  Goins also spent time in the Phillies, A’s, and Braves organizations without getting any big league calls, and he signed a minors deal with Kansas City last winter but didn’t actually take the field for any game action.

Known more for his glove than his bat, Goins hit .228/.278/.333 over 1690 career plate appearances in the majors, usually working as a utility infielder.  Goins was a very solid defender at both middle infield positions, and also played some third base and a handful of games at first base and the two corner outfield spots.

More than half (887) of Goins’ career PA came during the 2015 and 2017 seasons, as Goins found himself elevated into more or less everyday duty due to injuries to regular Jays starters.  Devon Travis’ recurring shoulder problems meant that Goins got the majority of time at second base for Toronto’s AL East-winning team in 2015, and Goins also found himself logging a lot of work at both second base and shortstop in 2017 when Troy Tulowitzki was on the injured list.

We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Goins on a fine career, and we wish him all the best in his coaching work.

Latest On Alek Manoah

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  • Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins provided an update on right-hander Alek Manoah during today’s end-of-season presser, as noted by ESPN. Manoah, clarifying some of the uncertainty that surrounded the right-handers status last month. Atkins noted that Manoah had received an injection to reliever discomfort in his throwing shoulder, though he added that no structural damage had been found after multiple tests. Atkins described the 2022 AL Cy Young award finalist as “motivated to get back to form,” adding that Manoah felt the injection was the best choice for a next step forward as he looks to prepare for the 2024 campaign. Manoah, 25, struggled badly in 19 starts with the Blue Jays this year, posting a 5.87 ERA and 6.02 FIP in 87 1/3 innings of work.

Ross Atkins Discusses Schneider, Coaching Staff, Offense

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During the Blue Jays’ end-of-season press conference today, GM Ross Atkins spoke to reporters about a variety of topics, including the decision to pull right-hander Jose Berrios from what proved to be the club’s final game of the season after just three innings, the future of manager John Schneider and the coaching staff, as well as the club’s offense in 2022.

Regarding the decision to pull Berrios, Atkins emphasized that in-game decision making is a role that belongs exclusively to Schneider, saying (as relayed by MLB.com’s Julia Kreuz) that the front office did not “influence” Schneider’s game plan for the club’s pitching staff, “other than maybe that it was an organizational strategy that had been communicated to players.” Though Atkins emphasized that he did not play a role in the decision, he also expressed support for Schneider’s decision, noting that run prevention wasn’t the club’s issue during the series, where they mustered just one run on fifteen hits across the two games. “The strategy is one that, in the end, was effective if we only allowed two runs,” Atkins said.

While Atkins expressed support for Schneider and confirmed during the presser that he would return as the club’s manager in 2024, the future of Toronto’s coaching staff appears less certain as Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi notes that Atkins described discussions on the future of the club’s coaching staff as “ongoing,” though the specifics of any changes being considered were unclear.

In terms of offseason priorities, Atkins made clear that the club will look to improve its offense ahead of the 2024 campaign. Though the club’s 107 wRC+ was a solid figure that placed them eighth-best in the majors this season, it still represents a noteworthy decline from last year’s AL-best offense that posted a 118 wRC+. The club suffered a particularly tough season in terms of power, as Toronto’s ISO dipped from .168 in 2022 to .161 this year. While that dip may seem insignificant, it’s all the more concerning given the much stronger offensive environment around the sport in 2023, as made obvious by the Blue Jays going from eighth-best in the majors last year to just 18th this season, worst among playoff teams in the AL.

With sluggers Brandon Belt (19 homers, .236 ISO) and Matt Chapman (17 homers, .185 ISO) both scheduled to hit free agency in the coming weeks, even more pressure figures to be placed on franchise face Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to bounce back from 2023’s down season . That said, stronger performances from outfielders George Springer and Daulton Varsho as well as catcher Alejandro Kirk will also be necessary if the club’s offense is going to regain its top-of-the-league form from 2022. Of course, the team could also look to free agency in order to give their offense a facelift. Chapman and Belt will be joined by the likes of Mitch Garver, Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez, and Joc Pederson as some of the better power bats available this winter.

Blue Jays Outright Jay Jackson

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October 6: Jackson cleared outright waivers, according to the transaction log at MLB.com. He’ll qualify for free agency at the beginning of the offseason, so it was a lock that he’d go unclaimed.

October 1: The Blue Jays announced this afternoon that the club has designated right-hander Jay Jackson for assignment. In a corresponding move, the club selected the contract of right-hander Wes Parsons. The move brings Jackson’s 2023 season to an end. The 35-year-old hurler signed with Toronto on a one-year deal back in March and was already slated to become a free agent following the 2023 campaign, though the move means that Jackson won’t join the club as they embark on a postseason push this October.

In 25 appearances with the Blue Jays this season, Jackson has posted a 2.12 ERA, good for a whopping 200 ERA+ in 29 2/3 innings of work. The right-hander’s peripherals are less impressive, with a 4.20 FIP and 3.89 SIERA, though even those figures are still better than average. The strong performance in 2023 continues a run of three seasons in the majors where Jackson has been an effective reliever: since returning from Japan prior to the 2021 season, the veteran righty has posted a 2.73 ERA and 4.07 FIP in 50 appearances with the Giants, Braves, and Blue Jays. Jackson is among several solid middle relief options who figure to be a part of the coming free agent class, like fellow righties John Brebbia and Keynan Middleton.

In Jackson’s place, the Blue Jays select Parsons, who last pitched in the majors during the 2019 campaign. He spent the 2021 and 2022 seasons overseas pitching in the KBO, where he combined for a 3.67 ERA in 196 1/3 innings of work despite his career 5.67 ERA at the major league level. Parsons signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays this past offseason and has made 17 starts at the Triple-A level, recording a 4.52 ERA in 81 2/3 innings of work. Parsons, 31, will start today’s season finale against the Rays and figures to help cover innings as the club prepares for the AL Wild Card series, which begins on Tuesday.

Blue Jays Notes: Belt, Ryu, Rivera

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With the Blue Jays having been eliminated from the postseason last night at the hands of the Twins, Toronto is beginning to shift its focus toward the coming offseason. That includes left-handed slugger Brandon Belt, who yesterday expressed uncertainty regarding whether or not he’ll continue playing in 2024.

“I don’t know what I’m going to do,” Belt told reporters (including Keegan Matheson of MLB.com) following the club’s defeat in Minnesota last night. “This could be the end for me… I just don’t know yet. It’s something I need to talk to my family about and see what their thoughts are on it and see how I feel about it in a couple of months, then go from there.”

Belt, a veteran of 13 major league seasons, debuted with the Giants back in 2011, won World Series rings with the club in both 2012 and 2014, and made his only career All Star appearance back in 2016. 2023 marked the first season of his career he spent outside the Giants organization after he signed a one-year, $9.3MM deal to join the Blue Jays this past offseason. While the 35-year-old has been effective as ever at the plate in recent years, with a .258/.369/.503 slash line since the start of the 2020 season that includes a 138 wRC+ effort this year, the veteran has dealt with injuries more and more frequently in recent years.

Belt has been limited to just 278 games thanks to injuries over the last three seasons, which saw him wind up on the IL a whopping seven times with issues ranging from a fractured thumb to knee and hamstring issues. While Belt’s effectiveness at the plate would surely draw interest from a variety of clubs, particularly given the lack of impact bats available in free agency, given his age and injuries it’s understandable that the slugger wants to ponder his future before committing to a return.

Other pending free agents also spoke to reporters yesterday (including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet), with lefty veteran Hyun Jin Ryu among them. Ryu just wrapped up the final year of his four-year, $80MM pact with Toronto. After kicking off his time with the Blue Jays by finishing as a finalist in AL Cy Young award voting during the 2020 season, Ryu posted roughly average numbers (4.37 ERA, 4.02 FIP) in 2021 before missing most of the 2022 and 2023 seasons thanks to Tommy John surgery.

Overall, the 36-year-old southpaw posted a 3.97 ERA and 4.02 FIP in 315 innings of work with the Blue Jays, including a 3.46 ERA across eleven starts this season after returning from surgery. Ryu confirmed to reporters yesterday that he hopes to continue pitching in MLB in 2024, and even in a deep free agent class for starting pitching options, it seems reasonable to expect Ryu to find a big league deal somewhere. While the veteran’s injury history is fairly lengthy, he’s been effective when healthy since debuting with the Dodgers back in 2013, with a career 3.27 ERA and 3.53 FIP. That said, it would be reasonable to expect the veteran to be limited to one-year offers given his recent surgery and middling peripherals since returning back in August (4.91 FIP, 4.70 SIERA).

While the future of both Belt and Ryu in Toronto is currently up in the air, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi did reveal one member of the Blue Jays who won’t be returning for 2024: longtime third base coach Luis Rivera, who is retiring after 11 years in the role with Toronto. After playing in the majors for 11 seasons, Rivera managed in the minor leagues for both Toronto and Cleveland before settling into his role as third base coach of the Blue Jays.

Poll: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

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Both the playoff field and the first-round matchups now have been set, so we can get on with deciding who’s going to be holding the Commissioner’s Trophy by the end of the World Series.  After 162 games (well, give or take a Marlins/Mets game that will now be scrapped entirely), the list of contenders has been narrowed to a dozen teams.

The Braves led all of baseball with 104 wins, and their spectacular lineup tied a Major League record with 307 home runs.  Leading the league almost across the board in significant offensive categories this season, Atlanta boasts MVP favorite Ronald Acuna Jr. as their top player, yet the incredible depth of the everyday lineup is a nightmare for opposing pitchers.  Injuries to Max Fried and Charlie Morton have left some questions about the readiness of the staff heading into the playoffs, but if Atlanta’s games start turning into slugfests, the Braves are more than well-equipped for that type of baseball.

Despite a huge swath of injuries to their pitching staff, the Dodgers still finished 100-62 and won the NL West.  It was the fifth time in the last six 162-game seasons that L.A. hit the 100-win threshold, and the Dodgers have now won 10 of the last 11 division titles.  All of that success, of course, has netted “only” one World Series title (in 2020) to date, and it will be up to Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman to keep carrying the offense while the somewhat makeshift pitching staff will try to produce quality innings.

The Orioles went from 110 losses in 2021 to 101 wins this season, winning the AL East for the first time since 2014.  Baltimore’s extensive rebuild led to a new wave of young talent (i.e. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez) providing a quick impact, while roster holdovers and unexpected hidden gems like Ryan O’Hearn all kept producing for a well-rounded team.  The rotation is either a question mark or perhaps just underrated heading into October, and the O’s want to leave no doubt that their team is for real.

The Astros went into the final series of the season not even knowing if they’d be in the playoffs at all, yet Houston ended up with a first-round bye and their sixth AL West crown in seven seasons.  The defending World Series champs have weathered a lot of pitching injuries and a bit more inconsistency than usual from their lineup, yet if any team knows how to turn up the volume in the postseason, it’s the Astros.

These four teams will get first-round byes, while the other two division champions and the six wild-card teams will have to survive the best-of-three first round.  The AL Central champion Twins and the sixth-seeded Blue Jays will meet in the postseason for the first time since 1991, with Toronto trying to win its first playoff game since 2016 and Minnesota trying to end an unfathomable 0-18 record in playoff games dating back to 2004.  Both the Twins and Jays have relied on recipes of strong starting pitching, solid bullpen work and (especially in Toronto’s case) excellent defense, while the offense has been much more hit-and-miss for each club.  A low-scoring series wouldn’t be a surprise, making things a tossup even though the Twins have the home-field advantage.

The Rays and Rangers spent a good chunk of the season looking like they’d sail to division titles, yet the two clubs will now meet in the Wild Card Series.  Tampa Bay’s ever-deep farm system just kept churning out MLB-ready talent, allowing the Rays to stay steady and win 99 games despite an injury-depleted pitching staff.  Texas had greater issues managing pitching injuries and a very leaky bullpen, and though the Rangers still ended up with 90 wins and a playoff berth, the Rangers’ relief corps stands out as perhaps the biggest weak link of any postseason team.

The Brewers went 92-70 to book their fifth trip to the playoffs in six seasons, with three of those trips coming via the NL Central title.  With a 35-20 record since August 1, Milwaukee has been somewhat quietly marching towards the playoffs in top form, even if scoring runs is still at something of a premium for a team powered by its hurlers.  The Diamondbacks have just about the opposite problem, as they’ll head into the playoffs with a -15 run differential and a season-long problem with rotation depth.  But, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly can be a problem in a short series, and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll will get his first taste of the postseason spotlight.

The Phillies and Marlins meet in an all-NL East edition of the Wild Card Series, with Miami holding a 7-6 head-to-head edge in regular-season play.  After falling short in last year’s World Series, the Phillies are looking to make another run through the entire bracket, setting up the dynamic of a seasoned, veteran squad against an upstart Marlins club who are in the playoffs following a full 162-game season for the first time since 2003.  A huge 33-13 record in one-run games helped Miami reach the postseason despite a -56 run differential — by contrast, Philadelphia was +81.

Looking at the list of twelve, who is your pick to win it all? (poll link for app users)

Tyler Clippard Announces Retirement

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Veteran right-hander Tyler Clippard took to Instagram yesterday to announce his retirement from professional baseball. A sixteen-year big league veteran, Clippard last played for the Nationals during the 2022 season, making four appearances at the big league level while primarily pitching at the Triple-A level.

“The time has come to announce my retirement from baseball,” Clippard wrote, “Thank you to my parents, my wife, my friends, my teammates, my agent, my coaches and trainers, and everyone else who has supported me along the way!”

Clippard’s professional career began when he was selected in the ninth round of the 2003 draft by the Yankees. He eventually made his big league debut at the age of 22, starting six games for New York in 2007. The audition did not go well, as Clippard posted a 6.33 ERA and 6.68 FIP in 27 innings of work. He was traded to the Nationals that offseason and made just two appearances in the majors in 2008, allowing five runs on 12 hits and 7 walks in 10 1/3 innings of work across his pair of starts.

Clippard move to the bullpen ahead of the 2009 season, and the then 24-year-old righty quickly proved that relief work suited him. Clippard posted a sterling 2.69 ERA while striking out 27.3% of batters faced in 60 1/3 innings of work across 41 appearances. The 2009 season proved to be the start of the most successful stretch of Clippard’s career, as he would dominate toward the back of the bullpen in Washington for years to come.

Over the next five seasons, Clippard posted a 2.63 ERA, 48% better than league average by measure of ERA+, with a 3.24 FIP in 393 1/3 innings of work. Clippard struck out 29% of batters faced while walking 9.1%. He racked up 34 saves across those seasons, primarily coming from the 2012 season when he acted as the club’s closer. The stretch also included both of Clippad’s career All Star appearances. His first All Star nod came in 2011, when the righty posted a phenomenal 1.83 ERA across 88 1/3 innings, good for a whopping 209 ERA+. Clippard struck out 31.6% of batters faced that season while walking just 7.9%, resulting in a career-best 23.7 K-BB%. His 2014 season was nearly as strong, as the then-29-year-old righty posted a 2.18 ERA and 2.75 FIP in 70 1/3 innings of work en route to his second All Star game.

The 2015-17 seasons proved to be tumultuous ones for Clippard, as he suited up for six different teams across the three campaigns. After being traded from the Nationals to Oakland shortly after New Year’s in 2015, Clippard was shipped to the Mets at the trade deadline and signed a two-year deal with the Diamondbacks that offseason before finally returning to his original team in New York via trade at the 2016 deadline. His stay in New York lasted until shortly after the 2017 All Star break, when he was shipped to the White Sox. Chicago flipped Clippard to the Astros just one month later. While Clippard did not appear on the club’s postseason roster, he nonetheless received a World Series ring in 2017 as a member of the Astros’ championship club.

Despite the constant upheaval Clippard faced over those three seasons, his results remained above average: in 205 appearances across the 2015-17 campaigns, Clippard posted a 3.70 ERA (114 ERA+) with a 4.34 FIP and a 25.2% strikeout rate, though his walk rate jumped to 10.6% over that time. Now 33 years old and a veteran of eleven big league seasons, Clippard provided quality innings of relief to Toronto, Cleveland, Minnesota, and Arizona over the next four seasons (3.21 ERA and 3.96 FIP in 182 innings of work) before returning to the Nationals to close out his career.

In all, Clippard’s big league career concludes with a career 3.16 ERA in 807 appearances. The two-time All Star finished 212 games in his career with 74 saves and struck out 956 batters in 872 1/3 innings of work. We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Clippard on his baseball career and wish him all the best as he moves on to his post-playing career.

Blue Jays’ Jay Jackson Will Be A Free Agent This Winter

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Due to particular language in the MLB contract he signed with the Blue Jays prior to Opening Day, Jay Jackson will be a free agent this winter despite lacking the regulation six years of big league service time, Jays Journal’s Eric Treuden writes.  This isn’t the first time Jackson has pursued this route, as Treuden notes that Jackson had similar free agent language written into prior contracts with the Brewers and Giants over the last four years.

Players with between three years and six years of service time are usually under team control, via salary arbitration.  However, this normal structure is an imperfect fit for players like Jackson, who made his MLB debut at a relatively late age (27) and who have bounced around to several different teams in both North America and Japan.  Though 2023 is Jackson’s age-35 season and he has previously pitched in parts of four MLB campaigns from 2015-22, he still only had one year and 105 days of official service time heading into Opening Day.  Rather than tie himself to the Blue Jays organization for years to come, Jackson and his representatives arranged a re-entry into the free agent market at the completion of his one-year deal with Toronto.

Over 27 2/3 innings with the Jays, Jackson has looked quite sharp in posting a 2.28 ERA over 27 2/3 innings, as well as a 22.9% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate.  This performance is all the more impressive considering how Jackson’s focus has been on matters far more important than baseball, as Jackson and his fiancee have been caring for a newborn who came 15 weeks premature.  As a result, Jackson has spent time on the family emergency list, and also spend numerous off-days traveling to Utah to be his family.

His son’s health situation is sure to factor into Jackson’s next contractual decision, as it stands to reason that he might prefer to join a team closer to home.  That said, Jackson signed with the Blue Jays because he prioritized pitching for a contender, and by all accounts the club has enjoyed Jackson’s contributions both on the field and in the clubhouse, so the Jays figure to have some interest in offering Jackson a new deal.

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