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The Best Remaining Fits For Cody Bellinger

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For the past six weeks, the offseason has centered on three individuals: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With the first two having found new homes and Yamamoto expected to choose his team within a week or two, there’s likely to be greater attention placed on Cody Bellinger.

MLBTR’s #2 free agent entering the winter, Bellinger has had a quiet offseason since declining his end of a mutual option and rejecting a qualifying offer from the Cubs. Early reports tied the lefty-hitting center fielder to the Yankees, Giants and Blue Jays. The incumbents have some amount of interest in a reunion, although the presence of highly-regarded rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong gives them leverage to pass on what’s surely still a lofty asking price.

Last week, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote that Bellinger’s camp at the Boras Corporation were seeking to reach or surpass $200MM. Yet it’s fair to presume that the former MVP’s market has dwindled over the past month. Along with Soto, the Yankees acquired Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham to join Aaron Judge in the outfield. San Francisco signed Jung Hoo Lee to play center field instead. That knocks out the two teams widely perceived as the favorites. (At the beginning of the offseason, every MLBTR staffer pegged the Giants or Yankees as Bellinger’s landing spot in our Free Agent prediction contest.)

Where does that leave things for the two-time All-Star?

Likeliest Fits

  • Angels: It’s difficult to identify exactly where the Angels go from here. Los Angeles has thus far limited its offseason activity to a trio of low-cost middle relief additions (Luis García, Adam Cimber and Adam Kolarek). Ohtani was their top priority. After losing him, they’ll need to determine how aggressively to add to a roster that won only 73 games despite his MVP performance. GM Perry Minasian and new skipper Ron Washington have been clear they’re not about to rebuild. Bringing in a front-line starting pitcher appears the top priority, but they’ll also need to address a lineup that ranked 16th in runs and lost a .304/.412/.654 hitter. Bellinger would give the Angels an option to cover center field if Mike Trout needs any time on the injured list. He’d push Mickey Moniak to a fourth outfield role and could take some of the available DH at-bats. He’s also a marquee name who starred in Los Angeles, which could hold appeal to owner Arte Moreno.
  • Blue Jays: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that the Jays looked like the top suitor for Bellinger. It’s not hard to see why. The Jays came up empty on their pursuits of Ohtani and Soto. While no one would consider Bellinger the same kind of upgrade, Toronto still has ample short-term payroll space and a need for a left-handed bat. They’re also without a clear answer in center field after Kevin Kiermaier hit free agency. The Jays could sign a corner outfielder and bump Daulton Varsho to center (or simply try to re-sign Kiermaier), but Bellinger is the best all-around position player on the open market.
  • Cubs: Bellinger was among the Cubs’ most valuable players a season ago. While they may have initially viewed him as a one-year stopgap to Crow-Armstrong, there’s an argument for bringing him back. The Cubs don’t have a clear option at first base, where Bellinger is a plus defender. His ability to play all three outfield spots would afford the organization the flexibility to start Crow-Armstrong in Triple-A (where he struck out at a concerning rate in 34 games last season) without needing to rely on journeyman Mike Tauchman to maintain his surprisingly strong form from 2023. Even if Tauchman and/or Crow-Armstrong prove deserving of everyday playing time, the Cubs could rotate Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki through designated hitter to keep their outfield fresh.

Longer Shots

  • Mets: New York could upgrade over either Starling Marte or DJ Stewart in the corner outfield. There’s room for Bellinger to join Brandon Nimmo as a long-term outfield investment, but it doesn’t seem that’s how the front office is approaching this winter. The Mets are in on Yamamoto but appear to view him as an exceptional case in what’d otherwise be a relatively quiet offseason as they focus primarily on 2025.
  • Nationals: While Washington isn’t an immediate contender, they could make a legitimate push for the playoffs by the ’25 season. Bellinger, who turned 28 in July, would still project as a productive player during that window. The Nats have top outfield prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood looming, but only Lane Thomas should have a short-term spot locked down. The Nationals struck early on the Jayson Werth signing to accelerate a rebuild a decade ago. There’d be some sense in doing that again, but they’ve been fairly quiet in recent offseasons and still have organizational uncertainty regarding their local TV deal as part of the contentious MASN arrangement with the Orioles.
  • Phillies: Philadelphia is involved on Yamamoto, suggesting an ability to stretch the budget for the right player. Whether Bellinger qualifies isn’t clear. Brandon Marsh is a solid center field option, while the Phils have Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache as options for the corner opposite Nick Castellanos. It’s not a terrible outfield, but it’s also perhaps the weakest area of an otherwise excellent roster. The Phils haven’t shied away from pursuing star talent under owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

Payroll Questions

  • Mariners: Seattle is likely to bring in at least one outfielder to join Julio Rodríguez and a group that otherwise consists of players like Dominic Canzone, Taylor Trammell and Sam Haggerty. Bellinger fits on the roster, but the M’s have thus far sliced payroll amidst uncertainty about the revenues from their local TV deal with Root Sports. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto hasn’t signed a free agent hitter to a multi-year contract in his eight-plus years leading the Seattle front office. Breaking that streak with Bellinger would be a massive shift in operating procedure.
  • Padres: Much of what applies to the Mariners can be said about the Padres. They want to compete after a disappointing playoff miss. They need outfield help to do so. Yet they’re also facing questions about their broadcasting deal and have only cut payroll so far this offseason. With Lee’s six-year, $113MM deal pushing beyond their spending range, it’s hard to see how they could make Bellinger work.
  • Rangers: The defending World Series winners could ostensibly make room for Bellinger, perhaps by trading incumbent center fielder Leody Taveras to address an injury-plagued rotation. GM Chris Young has suggested they’re unlikely to make the kind of free agent splash they have in prior offseasons, though, so it’s far likelier they stick with an internal group of Adolis García, Taveras and Evan Carter while awaiting the arrival of top prospect Wyatt Langford.

Blue Jays Interested In Jonathan India

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Jonathan India’s name has been swirling in trade rumors for months, and the Blue Jays are the latest team to show some interest in the Reds second baseman, according to Bob Elliott of the Canadian Baseball Network (X link).  Toronto has been mentioned as a speculative fit for India given the Jays’ need for second base help, though there isn’t any indication that a trade might be close, or whether this is anything beyond due diligence on the Blue Jays’ part.

Since Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield are both in the free agent market, the Jays have been left pretty thin at both second and third base.  In-house candidates Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider, and Ernie Clement are all on the big league roster, while any of Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez, or Leo Jimenez could make their Major League debuts in 2024 and work their way into the infield picture.

While Toronto has plenty of options in terms of volume, however, there isn’t much in the way of proven Major League capability.  Biggio and Espinal have been inconsistent during their big league tenures, Schneider and Clement both hit very well in small sample sizes in 2023, and the rest have no big league track records at all (though Martinez and Barger are highly-regarded prospects).

India could provide an answer at second base, though the former NL Rookie of the Year isn’t exactly a sure thing coming off two somewhat underwhelming seasons.  Since winning the ROY in 2021, India has hit .246/.333/.394 with 27 homers over 960 plate appearances for Cincinnati, with hamstring injuries and plantar fasciitis impacting his ability to stay on the field.  Public defensive metrics have also been very unimpressed with India’s glovework, so his contributions as a second baseman specifically could be limited.

Even with these factors in mind, India just turned 27 two days ago and is only entering the first of three arbitration-eligible years, so Cincinnati normally wouldn’t be looking to trade such a controllable player.  And, technically, the Reds aren’t open to a deal, as president of baseball operations Nick Krall has stated that the team isn’t “motivated” to move India elsewhere.  The question of big league experience is also a factor in Cincinnati, as while the Reds are overloaded with young infielders ready for more MLB time, Krall also values the stability and depth India brings in the event of injury problems, or if some of the youngsters need more minor league seasoning.

That said, the Reds’ signing of Jeimer Candelario only added to the infield surplus.  If Candelario is now taking regular time at third base, that leaves India, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, and Noelvi Marte all competing for middle infield spots.  Even if Candelario slides over to first base, Christian Encarnacion-Strand also needs a place to play, and the DH position provides some a few extra at-bats for the Reds to juggle all these options.

The fit in Toronto also wouldn’t be perfect.  As noted, India would be a defensive downgrade at second base, and the keystone is also the better defensive spot for most of the Blue Jays’ in-house options.  In his look at India’s trade market last month, MLBTR’s Nick Deeds observed that while the Jays are planning to contend in 2024, they also might not want to block Schneider or Clement entirely from at least semi-regular playing time.  Speculatively, an India trade package could involve the Jays sending one of their most experienced infielders (i.e. Biggio or Espinal) back to Cincinnati so the Reds could have some of the depth they crave, though pitching is the Reds’ greatest need.

It has been a quiet winter in terms of actual transactions if not headlines in Toronto, as the Blue Jays’ business has in some ways been impeded by their pursuit of Shohei Ohtani.  Obviously GM Ross Atkins and his front office weren’t singularly focused on Ohtani over the offseason’s first six weeks, yet after coming up short to the Dodgers in the Ohtani race, the Jays still have a pretty full to-do list that includes the two infield positions, left field, DH, and perhaps the rotation and bullpen.

Cody Bellinger Reportedly Seeking $200MM Or More In Free Agency

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With superstar slugger Shohei Ohtani now off the board after signing on with the Dodgers, the market has seemingly begun to come into focus for center fielder Cody Bellinger, the clear #2 position player on the free agent market this offseason. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Bellinger and agent Scott Boras are seeking “$200MM plus” in contract talks this winter.

That Bellinger is in position to even approach that figure is nothing short of incredible given the brutal fashion his time in LA came to an end. The outfielder dealt with shoulder, rib, and leg injuries throughout the 2021 season and struggled badly when he managed to take the field that season, posting an abysmal .165/.240/.302 slash line across 350 trips to the plate that season. While he was able to avoid the injured list in 2022, the diminished results lingered as he slashed just .210/.265/.389, prompting the Dodgers to non-tender him last offseason.

Not long after being non-tendered, Bellinger took a one-year deal with the Cubs and entered the 2023 campaign hoping to rebuild his value ahead of another trip to the open market after the season. He certainly succeeded in that effort, slashing .307/.356/.525 while earning a top ten finish in NL MVP voting and the second Silver Slugger award of his career. While this new-look Bellinger came with potential red flags regarding his quality of contact in 2023, MLBTR nonetheless projected him for a twelve-year, $264MM deal in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, the second-highest projected guarantee after Ohtani.

Since then, many of Bellinger’s potential suitors on the free agent market have gone in other directions. The Yankees landed a trio of left-handed hitting outfielders in Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, and Alex Verdugo on the trade market, seemingly leaving no room for Bellinger on their roster. Meanwhile, the Giants recently landed outfielder Jung Hoo Lee on a six-year, $113MM contract. While it’s certainly feasible that San Francisco could have the resources available to land Bellinger as well, between the club’s existing outfield logjam and need for pitching, it seems more likely that the club would pursue top arms like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and Shota Imanaga than double up on talent in center field with a Bellinger signing.

That’s not to say that Bellinger’s market is completely devoid of suitors, of course. The Blue Jays haven’t been shy about their pursuit of a top-of-the-market lefty slugger this offseason, and Bellinger is the clear best player available to fill that niche with both Ohtani and Soto now off the board. Given that, it’s no surprise that Heyman suggests that Toronto is “expected to be a player” for Bellinger this offseason. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale takes things a step further, suggesting that the Blue Jays could be a “favorite” for the 28-year-old’s services this winter. Looking beyond Toronto, both Heyman and Nightengale also indicate that the incumbent Cubs could be a factor in Bellinger’s market this offseason while Nightengale also suggests the Padres as a potential suitor.

Any interest from Chicago or San Diego seemingly comes with caveats, however. The Padres are reportedly facing severe financial constrains and hope to duck under the luxury tax in 2024, and committing $200MM or more to Bellinger would eat away most of the savings the club procured by dealing Soto and Grisham to the Bronx earlier this month. Meanwhile, reports from Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic indicate that the Cubs could prefer to wait out the market and see if Bellinger “falls” to them on a more palatable deal than the outfielder’s current price tag. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have no such apparent financial restraints or reservations. Of course, it’s possible that another team in need of outfield help such as the Mariners could jump into the fray and change the outlook of Bellinger’s market as the offseason continues.

Agent Nez Balelo Discusses Shohei Ohtani’s Free Agency

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With Shohei Ohtani now officially a member of the Dodgers and in possession of a record-setting 10-year, $700MM contract, agent Nez Balelo pulled back the curtain a bit on Ohtani’s very secretive free agent explorations in an interview with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

The purposeful lack of direct information about the Ohtani sweepstakes only added to the firestorm of media speculation about where the two-way superstar might land, and the tight hand that Balelo reportedly kept on the proceedings drew some criticism for its perceived over-the-top nature.  However, the CAA agent unsurprisingly didn’t have any regrets about the tactics.

“I’m so glad we did it this way, and I would do the same thing over and over again.  There’s not even a question in my mind,” Balelo said.  “The clubs appreciated it and respected it.  There wasn’t a team that said, ’You know what, let’s just get this out.’  Shohei and I wanted to be able to control the narrative, and teams were on board with it.  I heard that some media members felt that I needed to share information because this is a historical moment, but I 100% disagree.  I can’t even begin to even think how that makes sense.  There has to be a level of confidentiality….This was arguably the most highly exposed free agent ever on the market, and ultimately, I got the best result.  So how can you judge and criticize the way that I approached this?“

That said, Balelo also seemed to push back against reports that suggested any public acknowledgement by a team of its interest in Ohtani could or would detract from the team’s chances.  “That was ridiculous.  Those words never came out of my mouth,” Balelo said, pointing out that Dodgers manager Dave Roberts’ admission at the Winter Meetings that L.A. was in on Ohtani “sure didn’t have an effect, did it?”

Ohtani said during Spring Training that he wanted to test free agency and not discuss an extension with the Angels during the season, allowing Balelo and the CAA team to craft “a well thought-out approach” months in advance of Ohtani’s official entry into the market.  Balelo met with executives from several teams during the GM Meetings, which the agent viewed as “a good gauge of where the interest level was, to understand who was serious, and who really who was just kicking the tires.  There were a lot of teams that weren’t going to be in play because of the level of [money] where they all felt this was going to go.  So that that pretty much eliminated half the field.”

As more and more teams fell out of the race, the five finalists were the Dodgers, Angels, Giants, Cubs, and Blue Jays.  “The Dodgers were always at the forefront in talks,” Nightengale writes, and Balelo similarly wasn’t surprised when Ohtani informed his agent late in the afternoon on December 8 that he had decided to sign with Los Angeles.

This happened to be the same day that multiple reports suggested Ohtani had agreed to a deal with the Jays, and was en route to Toronto in a private jet.  Balelo described the situation as “about the most reckless reporting I’ve ever experienced in this game,” as “I felt really, really bad for the country of Canada.  And I felt really, really bad for the Toronto Blue Jays organization.  They are really good people.  What they had to endure, and the pain, wasn’t right.  I felt so bad for all of them that they had to go through that because it was the extreme emotional roller coaster of thinking that they had him and then finding out they didn’t.”

The Dodgers weren’t officially told Ohtani’s decision until the next day, and Balelo then called the Jays, Giants, Cubs, and Angels in turn to also break the news before Ohtani officially announced his choice via Instagram.  Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman already had some inkling of Ohtani’s choice on December 8 when Balelo inquired whether the Dodgers would agree to Ohtani’s desire to defer the vast majority of his $700MM deal until 2034 and beyond.  This offer was already on the table, so the Dodgers made no late increase to convince Ohtani to sign.

Though deferrals have been a common part of baseball contracts for years, Ohtani’s choice to defer $680MM of his salary drew almost as many headlines as his decision itself.  In discussing the deferred money, Balelo noted that Ohtani is “in such a unique position because he’s going to make so much money off the field….Basically, he’s in the most unique position of any player in the history of the game to be able to do this.  It’s not like we’re setting a precedent that every player now is going to defer everything out in his contract.”

With Ohtani’s deferrals lowering his luxury tax hit to $46MM (rather than $70MM) per season, the Dodgers will very significantly benefit from a Competitive Balance Tax standpoint, and Ohtani will cost himself some overall money due to inflation and the value of money today against money earned in a decade’s time.  Balelo described Ohtani’s decision as “the most incredible act of unselfishness and willingness to win that I’ve ever experienced in my life, or ever will. He did not care at all about the present value inflation.  And you know what, neither did I.  He should be praised for this.  He did not want to handcuff a team with his salary.  He said, ’How can I contribute to a team and allow them to stay competitive?’  So he took the most unselfish approach possible and deferred everything.”

Blue Jays Have Interest In J.D. Martinez

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As they look for ways to bolster their lineup this winter, the Blue Jays have some interest in veteran slugger J.D. Martinez, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com wrote this week.

Toronto has a clear opening at designated hitter now that Shohei Ohtani has chosen to sign with the Dodgers, and Martinez would fill that role quite capably. The former Tigers, D-backs, Red Sox and Dodgers slugger is coming off a resurgent .271/.321/.572 batting line with Los Angeles, where he belted 33 home runs in just 479 trips to the plate. Martinez’s rebound in the power department was accompanied by a career-worst 31.3% strikeout rate, which is alarming for a 36-year-old bat-only player, but the 2023 production was undeniably excellent.

Martinez would effectively be replacing Brandon Belt, who enjoyed a productive season as the Jays’ primary designated hitter but comes with greater platoon splits. Belt, as he’s done throughout most of his peak, crushed right-handed pitching but was a non-factor against lefties (.235/.308/.265 in 39 plate appearances). Martinez, meanwhile, tormented both left-handers (.274/.343/.581) and right-handers (.270/.312/.569) alike.

The Jays currently project for a $203MM payroll, per Roster Resource, which clocks in about $11MM shy of their 2023 end-of-season mark. They’ll be in franchise-record payroll territory even if they don’t make any other additions, thanks largely to arbitration increases for Guerrero, Varsho, Jansen and others. That said, the Jays’ pursuits of Ohtani and Juan Soto, plus their reported interest in Yoshinobu Yamamoto and other free agents indicate that ownership is comfortable adding to the payroll. Martinez’s age likely caps him at a two-year deal (if not a one-year pact), which should only increase his appeal to a win-now club like Toronto.

It’s not an ideal fit between the two parties, as Martinez would give the Jays yet another right-handed bat in a lineup that’s already lacking lefty hitters. Daulton Varsho figures to slide over to center field if free agent Kevin Kiermaier signs elsewhere, and the lineup doesn’t have any other everyday players who bat from the left side. Cavan Biggio and outfielder Nathan Lukes could get some looks, as could infield prospect Addison Barger, but the vast majority of the lineup consists of right-handed bats: Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen and Davis Schneider.

The Jays could still sign Martinez and bring in a different left-handed bat to help balance out the lineup. Cody Bellinger is the top free-agent outfield option, but the trade market includes names like Max Kepler and switch-hitter Dylan Carlson (to say nothing of the Giants’ glut of lefty-swinging outfielders that are increasingly redundant following their signing of Jung Hoo Lee). To call the free-agent market for left-handed-hitting infielders “bleak” would be an understatement, but the trade market again poses plenty of alternatives — switch-hitting Jorge Polanco perhaps chief among them. In addition to the Twins, both the Cardinals and Reds have potential infield surpluses from which they could deal.

MLBTR Poll: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market

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With Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto off the board, one of the next big questions of the offseason is what awaits NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The three-time defending Sawamura Award winner as Japan’s top pitcher is widely regarded as the best remaining free agent. Hitting the open market at a nearly unprecedented age of 25, he is generally viewed as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Yamamoto is coming off a season in which he turned in a 1.21 ERA across 164 innings. He fanned nearly 27% of opposing hitters while issuing walks at a meager 4.4% clip. It was arguably the best season in an illustrious NPB career that has seen the 5’10” righty post a 1.82 ERA in just under 900 innings at baseball’s second-highest level.

The Athletic’s Eno Sarris examined Yamamoto’s repertoire on a pitch-by-pitch basis yesterday. Sarris raved about Yamamoto’s fastball, split, curveball combination and praised the strong command he showed when pitching in the World Baseball Classic last spring. He concurred that Yamamoto projects as a top-flight starter, an assessment shared by evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke at the start of the offseason.

MLBTR predicted Yamamoto would receive a nine-year, $225MM guarantee. Recent indications are that he’ll surpass that mark. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote last week that there’s growing belief within the industry that an MLB team’s expenditure on Yamamoto will top $300MM.

Passan’s suggestion of a $300MM+ investment includes the posting fee which an MLB team would owe to the Orix Buffaloes. (MLBTR’s contract prediction was separate from the posting fee.) That’s calculated as 20% of a contract’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM) and 15% of any further spending. A $275MM guarantee for Yamamoto, for example, would come with a $43.125MM posting sum that’d push the overall investment by the MLB club to $318.125MM.

As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324MM deal with the Yankees is the only $300MM+ contract for a one-way pitcher in MLB history. There’s a chance Yamamoto becomes the second pitcher to cross that threshold and at least an outside shot that he beats Cole’s guarantee to establish a new high-water mark.

It doesn’t hurt to have essentially every large-market franchise enamored with his upside. Yamamoto has seemingly been the top target for the Mets all offseason. He’s now the #1 priority for the Yankees and Dodgers after their respective splashes for Soto and Ohtani. The Giants and Blue Jays missed on Soto and Ohtani and are still motivated to make significant splashes. San Francisco made one such move yesterday by signing star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year deal, but even after that hefty expenditure the Giants should still have the payroll and luxury-tax space to accommodate Yamamoto.

Yamamoto hosted Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns in Japan last week. The pitcher is now on a North American tour of his own. He reportedly visited the Giants on Sunday and sat down with Yankee officials on Monday. He met with the Dodgers last night and is slated to meet with the Blue Jays and Red Sox later in the week. One or two others could still be involved.

The Buffaloes posted Yamamoto on November 20. That technically gives him until January 4 to sign, although the process isn’t expected to take that long. Both Passan and Will Sammon of the Athletic suggested last week the touted pitcher is likely to sign well before his posting window closes. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he has chosen his MLB team before Christmas.

How does the MLBTR readership anticipate Yamamoto’s bidding playing out? Where will he land and how lofty a guarantee will he secure?

 

 

Red Sox, Blue Jays To Meet With Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto is in the process of meeting with interested MLB clubs and is slated to meet with both the Red Sox and Blue Jays in the coming days, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Yamamoto met with the Yankees yesterday and the Giants on Sunday. Mets owner Steve Cohen reportedly flew to Japan to meet with Yamamoto before his current slate of team visits in North America. That’s a total of five known teams meeting with Yamamoto, and Feinsand suggests another two or three teams could also hold meetings.

The Blue Jays, after missing out on Shohei Ohtani, figure to have both the motivation and money to pursue a significant upgrade (or upgrades) to other areas of the roster. Yamamoto obviously wouldn’t impact the 2024 lineup like signing Ohtani would have, but installing him into a rotation that also features Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt would make for a formidable top four. If Alek Manoah can regain his 2022 form or if Yusei Kikuchi can continue his 2023 performance levels, a Toronto rotation including Yamamoto could rank as one of the best in the game and have solid depth beyond the top quintet.

Over in Boston, the need is arguably more acute. The Red Sox’ rotation is rife with question marks, perhaps none bigger than what the team can expect from oft-injured top starter Chris Sale. The 34-year-old lefty was serviceable in 2023 when healthy, but he was again limited by injury. Last year’s 120 2/3 innings were Sale’s most since 2019. He posted a 4.30 ERA in that time, albeit with excellent strikeout and walk rates of 29.4% and 6.6%, respectively. Beyond Sale, Boston’s rotation ranges from inexperienced to inconsistent; Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford are all in the mix for innings.

Both teams can likely fit a massive commitment to Yamamoto onto the long-term books without significant issue. Doing so for the Jays would raise further questions about the team’s ability and/or desire to extend cornerstones Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but those questions will exist in some regard anyway, as both are now two years from free agency and still going year-to-year in arbitration. Toronto will see Kikuchi and reliever Yimi Garcia come off the books in 2025. Bassitt, Bichette, Guerrero and Chad Green are all off the books come 2026. Roster Resource pegs the Blue Jays’ payroll commitments over the next three years at approximately $203MM, $116MM and $65MM. Berrios is their only player signed beyond 2026.

For the Red Sox, the long-term outlook is similarly open for a sizable free-agent deal. Sale’s $145MM contract expires after the upcoming 2024 season. Rafael Devers, Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida are all signed through at least 2027. However, as it stands, the Sox only have about $76MM on the books in ’25 and similar or declining totals thereafter. That payroll outlook, combined with the considerable uncertainty that permeates the starting staff, is why the Sox are active in top tiers of the rotation market and have been prominently linked to the likes of Yamamoto and Jordan Montgomery.

Yamamoto, 25, is among the most sought-after players to ever make the jump from Nippon Professional Baseball to Major League Baseball. He’s won three straight MVP Awards and Sawamura Awards (NPB’s Cy Young equivalent) and just wrapped up a season that saw him post a 1.21 ERA in 164 innings. Yamamoto has a career 1.72 ERA in seven NPB seasons, including sub-2.00 marks in four of his past five campaigns. MLB scouts and evaluators generally view him as a legitimate No. 1-2 starter in a big league rotation. A contract north of $200MM has long seemed plausible, but recent speculation about a deal closer to $300MM has begun to arise.

Because Yamamoto has under nine years of NPB service, he’s only available to MLB clubs via the MLB/NPB posting system. Any team that signs Yamamoto will not only owe him the value of the contract agreed upon by the two parties, but also a release fee to the Orix Buffaloes — Yamamoto’s now-former team. That fee is equivalent to 20% of the contract’ first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM) and 15% of any dollars paid to Yamamoto thereafter.

Blue Jays, Payton Henry Agree To Minor League Contract

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Catcher Payton Henry has agreed to a minor league contract with the Blue Jays, he announced on X over the weekend. He’ll presumably receive an invitation to big league camp.

Henry spent the entire 2023 season in Triple-A with the Brewers. Milwaukee had outrighted him off the 40-man roster a couple weeks into the regular season. The Brew Crew had acquired the right-handed hitting backstop from the Marlins last offseason. That marked his second stint with the Milwaukee organization, as Henry had been drafted by the Brewers before being dealt to Miami in a 2021 trade that landed reliever John Curtiss in Wisconsin.

The 26-year-old hit .294/.341/.454 in 65 minor league contests this year. That’s roughly league average offense in a hitter-friendly International League setting. Henry struck out at an average 23.1% clip while walking less than 5% of the time. He has never had great strikeout and walk numbers, but prospect evaluators have credited the former sixth-round pick with strong raw power potential for a depth catcher.

Henry has 20 major league games under his belt split between the 2021 and ’22 seasons in Miami. He’s a .264/.331/.410 hitter in a little under 500 career Triple-A plate appearances. Barring injury, Henry is unlikely to secure a season-opening spot on a Toronto team that rosters Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk. The Jays recently lost third catcher Tyler Heineman on waivers, so Henry projects as non-roster depth who can open next year with their top affiliate in Buffalo.

Blue Jays Made Competitive Offer To Shohei Ohtani

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Shohei Ohtani’s decision to sign with the Dodgers for a record-breaking ten-year, $700MM deal sent shockwaves around the sports world, though a particularly heavy dose of the impact settled in Toronto.  Blue Jays fans (and possibly the team itself ) spent much of Friday wondering if Ohtani had decided on the Jays as his next destination, and a pair of now-debunked media reports only added to the fever of speculation.

The full story of the Jays’ pursuit of the two-way star might not be known for some time, yet in pure financial terms, it seems as though the club at least came close to the final asking price.  Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith hears from a source that the Blue Jays’ offer to Ohtani was “right there,” so it doesn’t appear as though the Dodgers’ $700MM deal was too far removed from what the Jays (or potentially other suitors) put on the table.

Given how Ohtani’s contract is so far beyond the normal stratosphere for baseball contracts or sports contracts in general, it is fair to assume that teams’ approach also differed greatly from a normal free agent courtship.  This was already apparent with the immense level of secrecy requested by Ohtani and his agent Nez Balelo, as every detail (true or exaggerated) that leaked out about Ohtani’s intentions was heavily scrutinized.

As Nicholson-Smith notes, there have already been conspiracy theories launched that Balelo and CAA used the Jays’ interest as a smokescreen to get the Dodgers to up their offer at the last minute since Los Angeles was Ohtani’s preferred choice all along.  Or, perhaps the simplest answer is true — the Blue Jays did enough to make themselves a genuine consideration in the two-time AL MVP’s mind, regardless of where the Dodgers may or may not have ranked for Ohtani heading into the offseason.

Learning that the Jays got within the ballpark of signing Ohtani probably doesn’t ease much or any of the sting for Toronto fans.  The fact that the Blue Jays were willing to spend perhaps upwards of $650MM, $675MM, or whatever the final bid was also doesn’t necessarily mean that the team has that much to spend in general this offseason, considering the special nature of Ohtani’s on-field ability and starpower.

Still, the Jays haven’t been shy about spending over the last few seasons, and the team has also been linked to such major free agents as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cody Bellinger, former Jay Matt Chapman, and a host of other players on the free agent and trade markets.  GM Ross Atkins has typically looked to at least check in on just about every notable free agent of the last few years, so this broad strategy could help the Blue Jays make a quick pivot as they explore their backup plans.

Reports: Ohtani Still Undecided On Next Club

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Free agent Shohei Ohtani has not made a decision on his next club, per reports from Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet and Alden Gonzalez of ESPN and others. Earlier today, a report from J.P. Hoornstra of Dodgers Nation relayed that the two-way superstar would be signing with the Blue Jays, though nothing has been made official as of yet. Ohtani was reported to be en route to Toronto by Jon Morosi of MLB.com, though Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Ohtani is at home in Southern California. Morosi has since retracted the report about Ohtani traveling to Toronto.

Ohtani’s free agency has been shrouded in secrecy by design, with the player and his reps preferring to keep the proceedings as private as possible. Recent reports have pegged the Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Angels and Cubs the finalists, though most of those clubs were hesitant to even admit they were involved, given Ohtani’s wishes. Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins spoke with reporters via Zoom during the Winter Meetings and would not divulge where he was. Later reporting from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic indicated that it was “believed” that Ohtani met with the Jays at their facilities in Dunedin, Florida at that time. There were also “rumblings” that Ohtani met with the Giants at Oracle Park, per Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts broke through this cone of silence earlier this week, frankly admitting that his club had recently met with Ohtani and identified him as a “top priority.” Many wondered if this plain-spoken approach would harm the Dodgers’ chances of signing Ohtani, given his clear desire for privacy. But Hoornstra reports it’s not believed that had any role in Ohtani’s choice, even a choice has even been made.

All of this has made it very difficult to secure concrete information about Ohtani’s market and what sort of discussions he was having with his suitors, though Morosi reported this morning that a decision was “imminent” and could be announced as soon as today.

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