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Mets Sign Rick Porcello

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Dec. 16: The Mets have formally announced the signing.

Dec. 12: The Mets have struck a deal with free agent righty Rick Porcello, according to Ken Rosenthal and Eno Sarris of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’s a one-year, $10MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

This is a long-rumored match that’ll put the New Jersey native back in familiar territory. It’s a bit surprising to see now, though, after the Mets reportedly agreed yesterday to ink Michael Wacha. Both of these buy-low hurlers would figure to command rotation jobs, leaving the Mets with six clear candidates for the five-man unit. Whether or not that could produce a trade remains to be seen, but now appears plausible on paper.

Porcello, who’ll turn 31 later this month, is far removed from his surprising Cy Young season. There have been some lean years in between, but he has always answered the bell. Porcello has taken the ball for at least 32 starts in each of the past four campaigns and has only once failed to top 170 MLB frames in a season (2010, when he threw 162 2/3).

Any pitcher is a theoretical health risk, but Porcello’s record of durability is second to none. The Mets can safely assume they’ll get innings from their new starter … but of what quality?

Outside of a few particularly good and bad seasons, Porcello has mostly hovered around the low-4 ERA range. Through more than two thousand innings in the majors, he carries a 4.36 ERA that lines up with his lifetime peripherals: 6.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 47.5% groundball rate. Fielding-independent pitching metrics largely concur with the results (4.09 FIP; 4.03 xFIP; 4.09 SIERA).

The Mets would be glad to see Porcello take the ball thirty-plus times and settle right around that four-earned-per-nine mark. But will he? Other teams reportedly offered three-year arrangements in an effort to woo Porcello, so there’s obviously some belief in the game that it’s plausible. But he’s also coming off of his ugliest season as a big leaguer.

In 2019, Porcello struggled to a 5.52 ERA in 174 1/3 innings. ERA estimators weren’t much more positive (4.76 FIP; 5.15 xFIP; 4.86 SIERA). He isn’t allowing an alarming rate of home runs per flyball (13.1%), but hitters have had greater success getting the ball in the air against him. He averaged a personal-worst 38.1% grounder rate and personal-high 41.5% flyball rate in 2019.

Perhaps it’s just a matter of a few well-conceived tweaks. Porcello has lost a bit of arm speed, though he’s still within range of his typical velocity levels. Opposing batters produced bigger-than-usual levels in hard-hit rate (37.2%) and launch angle (15.5 degrees), though neither figure was wildly out of line with Porcello’s prior history. Likewise, Porcello’s swinging-strike rate of 8.0% was on the low side for his recent track record but not a signal of a drastic shift in physical tools or efficacy.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Brewers Sign Josh Lindblom

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The Brewers are hoping to strike gold on another breakout from the Korea Baseball Organization, announcing on Monday that they’ve signed right-hander Josh Lindblom to a three-year contract. The GSI client will reportedly be guaranteed $9.125MM and has incentives baked into the deal that can bring it to a total of $18MM. MLBTR predicted he’d ink a two-year, $8MM guarantee at the beginning of free agency.

“We are pleased to sign Josh to a multi-year contract and welcome him and his family to Milwaukee,” Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns said in a press release. “During his time in Korea — and most specifically over the past two seasons — Josh has been as dominant as any pitcher in the world. We believe his combination of stuff, execution and experience will allow him to have success at the Major League level.”

Brewers fans may know Lindblom best from his brief time with the division-rival Pirates in 2017, his most recent season in the majors. Lindblom, previously with the Dodgers, Phillies, Rangers and Athletics, had an unspectacular run as a major league reliever up to then. However, he truly reinvented himself as a starter in the KBO over the past two seasons.

Now 32 years old, Lindblom started in all 56 of his appearances in 2018-19 with the Doosan Bears, who were the beneficiaries of a career renaissance. Lindblom posted sub-3.00 ERAs with strikeout and walk rates hovering around 8.0 and 2.0, respectively, in both seasons, in which he combined for 363 1/3 innings. Lindblom was so effective in both seasons that he earned the Choi Dong-Won Award — the top pitching award in the KBO – in each campaign. He also took home league MVP honors in 2019.

So what changed for Lindblom? As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explained, Lindblom still doesn’t throw that hard (his fastball checks in around 91 mph), but he has excellent spin rates on his side. He also became far more reliant on his four-seamer (at the expense of his two-seamer), adopted a splitter that has turned into a significant weapon for him and did well limiting hard contact during his two-year run of dominance.

It’s anyone’s guess whether Lindblom’s success in Korea will carry over in his return to the majors, but the starter-needy Brewers are ready to take a fairly low-risk chance and plug him into their rotation. This is, of course, the second time in recent years the Brewers have signed a former unremarkable MLBer who turned into a star in Korea. They previously inked first baseman/outfielder Eric Thames to a three-year, $16MM guarantee entering 2017, and they got a good bang for their buck out of that decision.

For now, Lindblom looks like perhaps one of at least four set starters for the Brewers, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com observes. He’s currently slated to join Brandon Woodruff, while Eric Lauer and Adrian Houser look like the other leading candidates to begin 2020 in Milwaukee’s rotation. Further additions figure to be added to the fray, and the Brewers could of course deploy a nontraditional blend of pitchers given their penchant for blurring the lines between starters and relievers.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported that the two sides were closing in on a three-year deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that an agreement had been reached.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rangers Acquire Corey Kluber For Emmanuel Clase, Delino DeShields

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2:10pm: Both teams have announced the deal, which is now official. The Indians have designated infielder Mike Freeman for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.

11:07 am: The Rangers have acquired right-hander Corey Kluber from the Indians, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (via Twitter). The deal is agreed to, pending physicals of the players involved, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). In return, Indians will receive right-handed reliever Emmanuel Clase and outfielder Delino DeShields, Jr. (Twitter links via Rosenthal and Levi Weaver of The Athletic). Texas will assume the entirety of Kluber’s $17.5MM obligation, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter), though the Rangers will also receive $500K in cash considerations to cover half of the $1MM assignment bonus owed to Kluber.

A fractured forearm and an oblique strain combined to limit Kluber to just seven underwhelming starts in 2019, but he was one of the sport’s true aces over the preceding half-decade. From 2014-18, Kluber averaged over 200 innings per season with a 2.85 ERA and a nearly-identical 2.84 FIP. Among qualified starters, only Clayton Kershaw, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer bested that ERA, while only Chris Sale, Kershaw and Scherzer topped Kluber’s combination of strikeouts (28.5%) and walks (5.2%). Kluber was twice rewarded for his dominance with the AL Cy Young Award in 2014 and 2017.

Of course, it’s anyone’s guess whether the 33-year-old Kluber will recapture that level of dominance. Kluber’s initial injury was certainly fluky, as he was struck by a 102 MPH line drive off the bat of Miami’s Brian Anderson. Prior to the injury, though, he hadn’t quite resembled his previous self. Kluber’s strikeout rate was down to just 22.6% in 2019, while his walk rate spiked to 8.9%. His fastball velocity, per Brooks Baseball, sat at a career-low 92.43 MPH, although pitchers tend to pick up velocity as they distance themselves from spring training, a luxury Kluber was never afforded. Kluber’s velocity has trended down consistently in recent years, though, and he now sits about two ticks slower than he did at his 2014 peak.

Kluber will make $17.5MM next season, and he is under control through 2021 via an $18MM team option (or a $1MM buyout). As Rosenthal notes (via Twitter), Kluber will receive a $1MM assignment bonus once the trade is finalized.

This move continues an offseason trend for the Rangers, who have strengthened their starting rotation considerably. Kluber joins Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles (both of whom were brought in via free agency) to complement the strong duo of Lance Lynn and Mike Minor. Having missed out on their top free agent target, Anthony Rendon, the Rangers were reportedly pivoting to the trade market to address gaps on the roster.

Clase was among a handful of Rangers generating interest league-wide. The 21-year-old made his MLB debut in 2019 and turned in 23.1 innings of 2.31 ERA ball. A fastball-slider reliever, Clase averaged an astounding 99.44 MPH on his heater, topping out at 102.02 MPH. He didn’t generate as many strikeouts in his brief MLB time (22.3%) as one may expect given that velocity, but he did induce ground balls on upwards of 60% of balls in play against him. He’s also thrown a high volume of strikes the past few seasons, culminating in a 6.4% walk rate at the highest level. He comes with six seasons of team control and figures to profile as a long-term bullpen asset for manager Terry Francona.

DeShields, meanwhile, may be the more recognizable name in the return, even if he’s likely the secondary piece from Cleveland’s perspective. The 27-year-old got the lion’s share of playing time in center field for Texas last season, although longstanding offensive woes continued to plague him. Over 408 plate appearances, he slashed just .249/.325/.347 (72 wRC+). That is right in line with his career output at the dish across five seasons in Arlington.

To DeShields’ credit, he has been one of the game’s best baserunners since making his MLB debut. The former Rule V pick has also drastically improved defensively. After getting off to a shaky start in 2016, the speedster has rated as a quality center fielder over the past three seasons. Per Statcast, DeShields has combined to be worth 29 outs above average since the start of 2017. His 12 outs above average last season placed him in the 95th percentile of MLB outfielders.

DeShields comes with two additional seasons of arbitration control. He’s projected for an eminently-affordable $2.4MM this offseason, of no small import to a Cleveland organization that has bandied about its most expensive players in trade. Indeed, today’s deal was certainly motivated by some desire on the Indians’ part to clear money from their books. Cleveland now projects for just under $91MM in 2020 payroll, per Roster Resource.

It will be fascinating to see if this move serves as a precursor to further sell-offs in Cleveland. Francisco Lindor has already been bounced around in trade rumors. He would no doubt be a prize of a rival’s offseason if they were able to pry him away. On the other hand, subtracting Kluber’s salary could alleviate any pressure the Indians feel to move Lindor and his projected $16.7MM arbitration salary. Today’s move to bring in two MLB-ready pieces at least suggests Cleveland hopes to make another run at a winnable AL Central in 2020.

Mets Agree To Sign Michael Wacha

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DECEMBER 15: Anthony DiComo of MLB.com has the breakdown on the incentives in Wacha’s contract. He’ll earn $500K for making 10, 14, and 18 starts, along with $500K for each start from 20-30. Finally, Wacha can earn $1.35MM worth of award bonuses. With $8.35MM worth of incentives, Wacha’s total earning potential for 2020 comes out to $11.35MM.

DECEMBER 11, 3:23pm: There’s a deal in place pending a physical, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). It guarantees $3MM, per Sherman (via Twitter), with up to $7MM in possible incentives.

3:09pm: The Mets are “working hard to finalize” a contract with righty Michael Wacha, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). If completed, it’ll be for a one-year term; financials have yet to be reported.

If this deal is wrapped up, Wacha would presumably round out the New York starting five. He’d also become the latest client of CAA — the former outfit of Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen — to join the New York organization.

It’s interesting to see Wacha heading in on a bounceback arrangement as Zack Wheeler departs with a huge contract. It wasn’t long ago that the former was seen as a major free agent target of the future, while the latter’s career was in limbo owing to health reasons.

Now, it’s Wacha who is trying to prove he can stay healthy and restore his former effectiveness. The former first-round pick has had some peaks to go with the valleys in recent years, but hasn’t looked like the budding young staff he was in 2013-15.

Last season, Wacha turned in a 4.76 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 over 126 2/3 innings. With balls flying out of the yard at a rate of 1.8 per nine, he was ultimately demoted to the bullpen. Wacha ended up averaging a career-low 93.4 mph with his fastball, though that’s only one tick off from his overall career average.

It’s tough to say just how much upside Wacha offers at this stage. He was able to stay on the mound for most of 2019 but hasn’t been as effective as he was before shoulder and back issues began to crop up. Statcast numbers don’t offer much in the way of encouragement; if anything, they suggest his strong ’18 output (3.20 ERA in 84 1/3 innings) was based upon some good fortune (.249 BABIP-against, .286 wOBA vs. .350 xwOBA). Still, it’s awfully tempting to dream on a powerhouse Mets rotation if Wacha and Steven Matz are able to turn in healthy and productive campaigns.

Dodgers Sign Blake Treinen

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DECEMBER 15: The signing is now official, as confirmed by Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times.

DECEMBER 11: The Dodgers will sign free-agent reliever Blake Treinen to a one-year, $10MM contract, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports. They were one of “multiple” clubs that made offers in that vicinity to the right-hander, according to Passan. Treinen’s represented by Adam Karon of Apex Baseball.

Judging by the contract he’ll receive and the multi-team interest he drew, clubs are buying into a potential bounce-back in 2020 from Treinen. He was largely a great reliever with the Nationals and Athletics from 2014-18, with the last of those seasons the highlight of his career to this point. Treinen was historically good that year, as he helped the A’s to the postseason with a microscopic .78 ERA/1.82 FIP and posted 11.2 K/9, 2.35 BB/9 and a 51.9 percent groundball rate in 80 1/3 innings of work. He added 38 saves on 43 tries for good measure.

Oakland couldn’t have expected Treinen to be that effective again in 2019, but it surely didn’t think his numbers would fall off a cliff. That’s exactly what happened, though. The 31-year-old put up a 4.91 ERA/5.14 FIP with 9.05 K/9, 5.68 BB/9 and a 42.8 percent grounder rate during an injury-limited, 58 2/3-inning showing. He also blew five saves on 23 attempts, which led the A’s to strip him of the closer role and hand it to Liam Hendriks. Furthmore, Treinen saw his swinging-strike rate fall by almost 6 percent and his home run-to-fly ball rate climb by 12 percent.

Despite Treinen’s newfound struggles, the A’s still managed to clinch another playoff berth. Treinen wasn’t a factor at that point, though, as his season ended in late September because of a stress reaction in his back. A few weeks later, the A’s decided to non-tender Treinen instead of paying him a projected $7.8MM in arbitration.

From at least a financial standpoint, it appears Treinen caught a break when the A’s cut him. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are left to hope they’ve stumbled on a potential late-game force (or at least a consistent and competent reliever). Although their overall roster is one of the envies of the league, the Dodgers did some have bullpen troubles in 2019, which ended in more playoff disappointment. Long-dominant closer Kenley Jansen had his struggles, as did big-money signing Joe Kelly. But the club will look for returns to form out of Treinen, Jansen and Kelly in 2020.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rangers Re-Sign Jeffrey Springs

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The Rangers have re-signed left-hander Jeffrey Springs to a one-year major league contract, the team announced. In more noteworthy news, the Rangers made righty Jordan Lyles’ two-year, $16MM contract official.

Now 27 years old, Springs is fresh off a two-season run in which he saw quite a bit of action out of the Rangers’ bullpen. He combined for 64 1/3 innings of 4.90 ERA/4.62 FIP ball with 8.81 K/9, 5.18 BB/9 and a measly 27.5 percent groundball rate in that span.

While Springs hasn’t been especially successful in the majors, the 2015 thirtieth-round pick has performed rather well in the minors. He owns a 3.65 ERA with 12.2 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 across 288 2/3 frames below the majors. Springs has been a standout in Triple-A since debuting there in 2018, and with three options left, the Rangers will be able to shuttle him between the majors and minors next season.

Angels Sign Anthony Rendon

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FRIDAY: The signing is now official, per an announcement from the Angels.

WEDNESDAY: Yet another superstar free agent has come off the board in what has turned into the fastest-moving offseason in recent memory. The Angels reached a seven-year, $245MM agreement with free-agent third baseman Anthony Rendon on Wednesday, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. The deal includes a full no-trade clause, but there are no opt-outs, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The contract doesn’t include any deferrals, according to Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds that it’s “slightly” backloaded. The value checks in just above the seven-year, $235MM prediction MLBTR made for Rendon entering the offseason.

Rendon’s the third Scott Boras client to land a $200MM-plus contract this week. He, Gerrit Cole ($324MM) and Stephen Strasburg ($245MM) will combine for a jaw-dropping $814MM in guarantees. Rendon’s now leaving Strasburg and the Nationals, with whom he won a World Series in 2019. Despite the Nationals’ deep pockets, though, owner Mark Lerner expressed doubt last week about the team’s chances of re-signing both of its marquee free agents. Once Strasburg re-signed, the likelihood was that Rendon would leave.

Other teams, including the Dodgers and Rangers, aggressively pursued Rendon over the past few days. However, he has chosen to team with the game’s foremost player, Angels center fielder Mike Trout, to make up one of the premier tandems in baseball. At $35MM per season, the soon-to-be 30-year-old Rendon is now second only to Trout in average annual value for position players.

Rendon earned his enormous payday – one that outdoes the seven-year, $234MM extension Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado signed last winter – with a superb tenure in Washington. The 2011 sixth overall pick debuted two years later and proceeded to post four seasons with upward of 6.0 fWAR as a member of the Nationals. Somehow, though, he didn’t earn an All-Star nod until 2019. That will go down as his best and most memorable Nats campaign, as he slashed a remarkable .319/.412/.598 with a personal-high 34 home runs and a career-best 7.0 fWAR during the regular season. Rendon carried his excellence into the postseason, where he was an integral part of the team’s improbable run to a championship. On the game’s biggest stage, Rendon logged a 1.003 OPS with three homers. His Game 7 World Series HR against the Astros woke up the Nationals in the seventh inning, helping lead to a title-winning comeback.

As was the case when outfielder Bryce Harper left D.C. to accept the Phillies’ mega-offer last winter, Rendon’s departure no doubt stings for the Nationals. If it’s any consolation to the club, though, it will receive some compensation for his exit because it issued him a qualifying offer after the season. The Nats will collect a 2020 draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3. They now figure to turn their attention toward replacing Rendon at third base, where they’ve been connected to Josh Donaldson – now the No. 1 free agent left in an ever-shrinking marketplace. They’ll have plenty of competition in that regard, though, with various reports linking the Rangers, Dodgers, Phillies, Twins and Braves to Donaldson.

The Angels, meanwhile, will surrender their second-highest pick next year and lose $500K of their international bonus pool for adding Rendon. But that’s a small price to pay for the Halos, a team desperately seeking a return to the playoffs after five straight failed seasons. Owner Arte Moreno and general manager Billy Eppler entered the offseason looking to make an enormous splash, evidenced previously by their interest in Cole, Strasburg, Donaldson and now-Phillie Zack Wheeler, and they pulled it off by reeling in Rendon.

With Rendon, Trout, shortstop Andrelton Simmons, second baseman David Fletcher, left fielder Justin Upton and designated hitter/right-hander Shohei Ohtani making up the majority of their lineup, the Angels have a strong core of hitters in place. However, there remain obvious need areas on the club, including in its rotation (which should benefit from Ohtani’s return from Tommy John surgery and the acquisition of Dylan Bundy) and at catcher.

The Angels still seem poised to patch both of those holes, as Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports (Twitter links) that they remain focused on finding “significant” starting help and adding a new backstop. Even with Rendon’s salary factored in, the Angels appear to have the money to pick up at least one more high-end contributor and stay under the $208MM luxury-tax line in 2020, with Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimating their current CBT payroll at $177MM-plus.

Twins To Sign Caleb Thielbar

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The Twins have agreed to bring hurler Caleb Thielbar back to the organization on a minors deal, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweets. Further details aren’t known.

All of Thielbar’s MLB experience came in Minnesota between 2013 and 2015. He carried a 2.74 ERA in 98 2/3 innings, in fact. He only carried a 79:30 K/BB ratio but had success at tamping down the long ball and batting average on balls in play.

Since Thielbar’s chances fizzled out with the Twins and he never got another shot elsewhere, it seems there’s quite a lot of doubt as to whether he can really succeed over the long haul in the majors. He ended up spending two years on the indy ball circuit and hasn’t seen the bigs since. But he has been awfully stingy in the upper minors in the past two seasons. Last year, he ran up a 3.22 ERA with an eyebrow-raising 94:16 K/BB ratio over 78 1/3 innings in 51 appearances in the hitter-friendly International League.

Dan Straily Agrees To Deal With Korea’s Lotte Giants

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Long-time MLB hurler Dan Straily is headed to Korea. He has agreed to a one-year, $1MM deal with the KBO’s Lotte Giants, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).

Straily, 31, has appeared in each of the past eight MLB campaigns — in six different uniforms. He owns a 4.56 ERA in 803 1/3 career frames at the game’s highest level.

After a nice showing to begin his career with the Athletics, Straily fell off the map somewhat. But he reemerged in 2016, launching a three-season run in which he threw nearly five hundred innings of 4.03 ERA ball.

Unfortunately, that run came to an abrupt end last year with the Orioles. Straily was brought aboard at the last minute to fortify a barren Baltimore pitching staff, but ended up giving up a nearly unfathomable tally of 22 home runs in 47 2/3 innings. He’ll look to get his career back on track with the KBO’s Giants.

Astros Avoid Arbitration With Lance McCullers Jr.

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The Astros announced that they have avoided arbitration with righty Lance McCullers Jr.. He’ll receive $4.1MM, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets.

That’s just what MLBTR and Matt Swartz projected McCullers to earn. But it’d be disingenuous to claim credit for this one. The talented hurler missed the entirety of the 2019 season, so he was clearly in line for a repeat salary.

McCullers, 26, will be looking to return from Tommy John surgery in his penultimate season of team control. When last we saw him, in 2018, he turned in 128 1/3 innings of 3.86 ERA ball with 10.0 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. He carries a 3.67 ERA in his career. If McCullers can return to that sort of productivity and stay on the mound, it would go a long way towards helping the Houston rotation make up for the loss of Gerrit Cole.

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