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NPB’s Chunichi Dragons Sign Kyle Muller

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The Chunichi Dragons have signed left-hander Kyle Muller, according to multiple reports out of Japan.  Muller elected free agency after he was outrighted off the Athletics’ 40-man roster at the end of the season, and he’ll now explore a new chapter of his career in Nippon Professional Baseball.

A second-round pick for the Braves in the 2016 draft, Muller was a regular on Baseball Prospectus’ top-100 prospect lists during his time in Atlanta’s farm system, though his numbers in the minors were more solid than dominant.  Muller made his MLB debut in 2021 and posted a 5.14 ERA across 12 games and 49 innings with Atlanta in 2021-22 before the Braves sent him to the A’s as part of the three-team trade in December 2022 that saw Sean Murphy wind up in Atlanta.

Given a greater opportunity to start in Oakland, Muller posted a rough 7.60 ERA in 77 innings in 2023, losing his rotation job in the wake of his struggles.  The southpaw was used only as a reliever in 2024 and posted a 4.01 ERA and five percent walk rate over 49 1/3 innings, with the improved control a big step forward given how walks had been a major issue for Muller in his previous big league work.  Never much of a strikeout pitcher, Muller’s 17.8% strikeout rate in 2024 almost exactly matched his 17.9% career mark.

Since Muller is out of minor league options, the Athletics had to designate him for assignment and then outright him a first time in August.  The lack of option years will be an obstacle for Muller going forward in terms of North American baseball, and if perhaps faced with a 2025 season spent bouncing around DFA limbo and the waiver wire, pitching for the Dragons on a guaranteed deal probably carried extra appeal.  Muller is still only 27, so there’s plenty of time for a potential return to the majors if he pitches well in NPB.

Athletics Acquire Jeffrey Springs In Multi-Player Trade With Rays

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The Athletics and Rays have announced a multi-player trade that will see left-handers Jeffrey Springs and Jacob Lopez head to West Sacramento.  In return, the Rays will receive right-hander Joe Boyle, the Athletics’ pick in Competitive Balance Round A of the 2025 draft, and two minor league players in righty Jacob Watters and first baseman/outfielder Will Simpson.

Considering how deep the Rays are in rotation options, Springs was viewed as a logical trade candidate this winter, as he was about to enter the more expensive portion of the backloaded four-year, $31MM extension he signed with Tampa in January 2023.  Springs is owed $10.5MM in each of the next two seasons, and there is a $15MM club option on his services for 2027 that can be bought out for $750K.

For the first two years and $9.25MM on that extension, the Rays only 49 innings of work from Springs, albeit with a 2.39 ERA.  A Tommy John surgery in April 2023 shelved Springs for the majority of the last two seasons, and he returned to the mound last July to post a 3.27 ERA over seven starts and 33 innings before he was shut down in early September due to fatigue in his throwing elbow.  It’s hard to gain much data from a small sample size, but Springs still had above-average strikeout and walk rate, and if anything might’ve gotten better bottom-line results if it wasn’t for a .330 BABIP.

Prior to the injury, Springs seemed like yet another success story for Tampa Bay’s pitching development system.  A 30th-round draft pick for the Rangers in the 2015 draft, Springs showed only a few flashes of quality over his first three MLB seasons while posting a 5.42 ERA in 84 2/3 innings with Texas and Boston.  Dealt from the Red Sox to the Rays in a relatively under-the-radar trade in February 2021, Springs emerged to post a 3.43 ERA in 44 2/3 bullpen innings for Tampa during the 2021 season, and he then had even better results after transitioning into a starting role in 2022.  The breakout year saw Springs deliver a 2.46 ERA in 135 1/3 innings (as well as a 26.2% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate) as Springs finally seemed to avoid the home run problems that plagued most of his career.

Springs was able to cash in on his big season with a life-changing contract extension, but his long injury layoff turned him into an odd man out of the Rays’ rotation.  Shane McClanahan, Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, Zack Littell, and Drew Rasmussen are all lined up to get starts in 2025, not to mention whatever other young starters could emerge from Tampa’s ever-loaded farm system.  With Springs’ price tag rising, many figured that the Rays would move his salary to a pitching-needy team with payroll space to spare.

If the idea of the Athletics being a “team with payroll space to spare” is still surprising to consider, the 32-year-old Springs is now the second splurge the A’s have made on their rotation this winter, after having already signed Luis Severino to a three-year, $67MM deal.  Adding Springs’ contract brings the A’s a step closer to the minimum $105MM luxury tax figure required to continue qualifying as a revenue-sharing team, and to avoid a grievance from the players’ union.  RosterResource estimates the Athletics’ current tax number at roughly $88.55MM, assuming the trade is completed.

Ulterior motive notwithstanding, trading for Springs is also a solid baseball move for an A’s team in need of rotation help.  Severino and Springs are big upgrades to a rotation that struggled badly last season, and the newcomers now stand as the top two members of the starting five that includes JP Sears, Mitch Spence, and Joey Estes.

More pitching moves can’t be ruled out, since the Athletics still have a ways to go before hitting that $105MM figure.  Severino notwithstanding, it can’t be an easy sell for the A’s to convince free agents to pitch in a minor league ballpark in West Sacramento, so trading for players (perhaps on unwanted contracts) has long seemed like a more logical move for the Athletics to both add payroll and bolster their roster at the same time.

Lopez shouldn’t be ruled out as part of the Athletics’ pitching situation in 2025, as the southpaw has already amassed 22 2/3 MLB innings with the Rays over the last two seasons.  A 26th-round pick for the Giants in the 2018 draft, Lopez missed all of 2022 recovering from a Tommy John surgery, but he has a 2.99 ERA across 337 2/3 career minor league innings.  That includes a 3.54 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, and 12.87% walk rate in 168 innings of Triple-A ball, with Lopez starting 37 of 39 games for the Rays’ top affiliate.

Despite a lack of velocity, Lopez has been able to miss quite a few bats, though this ability hasn’t manifested itself in his brief time in the majors.  It could be that Lopez might’ve gotten more big league looks if he’d simply been on a team that didn’t have Tampa Bay’s pitching depth, and a fresh opportunity now presents itself for Lopez with this trade.  Lopez (who turns 27 in March) figures to be part of the fifth starter competition in camp but will probably begin the year at Triple-A, acting as one of the first depth options in the event of an injury to a rotation member.

Turning to the Rays’ end of the trade, the inclusion of the Comp-A pick is particularly interesting, and it might speak to the league-wide interest in Springs’ services.  The Competitive Balance Rounds are bonus rounds within the draft that award picks to 15 teams within the bottom 10 in market size and revenue, as determined by the league’s formula that factors in revenue, winning percentage and market score.  The CBR picks are the only draft selections that are eligible to be traded, and while such trades tend to be rare, we’ve seen these picks involved in some prominent trades over the years.  The Comp-A round takes place just before the start of the second round, and while the exact placement of the traded pick has yet to be determined, last year’s Comp-A picks were selections #34-39 in the 2024 draft order.

It is no small thing for a team to deal such a pick, especially when building through the draft is of particular importance to a low-spending team like the A’s.  Still, getting at least two years of control over Springs was apparently worth the cost, as with the club option, the Athletics could have Springs for the entirety of their three-year stint in Sacramento before their planned new ballpark in Las Vegas is ready for Opening Day 2028.

As for the other parts of the trade package, Boyle brings a Major League-ready arm to the Rays’ pitching mix.  Debuting with a 1.69 ERA in three starts and 16 innings in 2023, Boyle had a 6.42 ERA in 47 2/3 innings this past season, missing about a month of action with a back strain and spending the bulk of the year at Triple-A.

The 25-year-old is something of a classic case of a hard-throwing (97.7mph average fastball velocity in the majors) pitcher who can’t harness his stuff, as Boyle has posted elevated walk totals in the minors and during his 2024 stint in the Show.  Fixing these control problems will determine whether or not Boyle can stick in the big leagues as a reliever or back-end starter, and given the Rays’ history of fixing pitchers, nobody would be surprised if Boyle ends up figuring it out in Tampa just as Springs and many other hurlers have done over the years.  Boyle has two minor league options remaining, giving the Rays more flexibility in using him as a fresh arm to shuttle back and forth between Triple-A and the active roster.

Baseball America ranked Simpson 16th on their ranking of the Athletics’ top 30 prospects back in April, while MLB Pipeline has Simpson 28th in their evaluation of the team’s system.  A 15th-round pick in the 2023 draft, Simpson has crushed minor league pitching in his two pro seasons and made it to the Double-A level for 18 games in 2024.  Simpson has shown some good pop in his bat and he has a good approach at the plate — scouts like his “analytical aptitude,” as BA’s scouting report puts it, with the idea that Simpson can still unlock more as he explores more ways to upgrade his hitting.  Defensively, Pipeline is more bullish on the idea of Simpson as a serviceable first baseman or corner outfielder, while Baseball America is more down on his glovework in general.

Watters was a fourth-round pick for the A’s in the 2022 draft, and he has a 5.86 ERA, 21.9% strikeout rate, and an inflated 13.73% walk rate in 152 pro innings.  Almost all of this experience is at the high-A level, though Watters skipped Double-A to make one spot appearance in Triple-A ball last season.  Working as both a starter and reliever, Watters’ numbers have been decidedly better out of the pen, so that might be the 23-year-old’s eventual career path.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan (multiple links) reported the trade and all of the players and picks involved except for Lopez, whose involvement wasn’t revealed until the deal was officially announced. 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Patrick Wisdom To Sign With KBO’s Kia Tigers

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Infielder Patrick Wisdom has reached an agreement with the Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization, as noted by Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News. Yoo notes that the deal is currently pending a physical. The Naranjeros de Hermosillo, for whom Wisdom had been playing in the Mexican Pacific Winter League, announced earlier today that they’ve removed Wisdom from their roster in deference to the wishes of his new club after the sides agreed to a deal.

Wisdom, 33, was a first-round pick by St. Louis back in 2012 but but didn’t make his big league debut until 2018. After making it into just 43 games across three seasons in the majors with the Cardinals, Rangers, and Cubs, he settled into a regular role with Chicago during the 2021 season. As a 29-year-old rookie that year, Wisdom took over the everyday third base job from outgoing star Kris Bryant and performed admirably in the role. He hit .231/.305/.518 (117 wRC+) despite an eye-popping 40.8% strikeout rate thanks to 28 homers in just 375 trips to the plate and earned himself a fourth-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting.

That success Wisdom found in his rookie season suggested he might have a future in the majors if he managed to cut down on the strikeouts a bit, and he did that over the next two seasons. In 2022 and ’23, Wisdom hit a combined .206/.295/.453 (108 wRC+) with a 35.2% strikeout rate and 48 homers in 836 trips to the plate. By the end of the 2023 season, Wisdom had generally ceded his everyday role in the lineup to a combination of Nick Madrigal, Christopher Morel, and deadline addition Jeimer Candelario, and he headed into the 2024 season projecting as a bench bat for Chicago.

His time on the bench with the Cubs did not go especially well, as Wisdom posted his worst season since getting an extended look in the majors back in 2021. He stepped up to the plate 174 times in 75 games with Chicago this year and hit just .171/.237/.392 (75 wRC+). While his strikeout rate ticked down to “just” 33.9%, Wisdom struggled to generate his trademark power with just eight home runs this year, and his walk rate suffered as he took a free base just 5.7% of the time. That steep decline in production in conjunction with Wisdom’s ever-shrinking role on the team led the Cubs to non-tender him last month, at which point he joined the free agent market.

Now, it appears he’ll head overseas to test his abilities in KBO league play, which is notoriously devoid of high-end power hitters. Former big league Matt Davidson led the league with 46 home runs last year and sported a high-power, strikeout-heavy profile similar to Wisdom during his time in the majors, so it’s certainly within the realm of possibility that Wisdom winds up doing quite well for himself as part of a Tigers offense that already led the KBO league in slugging percentage this past season.

Peter Lambert To Sign With NPB’s Yakult Swallows

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Right-hander Peter Lambert is poised to sign with the Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball on a one-year deal, according to a report from Nikkan Sports (Japanese language link). The report suggests that Lambert would earn a $1.6MM salary in 2025 if the deal is completed.

Lambert, 28 in April, was a second-round pick by the Rockies back in 2015. The right-hander made his MLB debut during the 2019 season and ultimately started 19 games for the Rockies that year, though the results left much to be desired as he struggled to a 7.25 ERA with a 5.97 FIP. Those figures were lackluster even for Coors Field in an offense-heavy environment as signaled by his 146 ERA- and 129 FIP- that suggest he was 46% and 29% worse than league average, respectively, by those metrics. Lambert struck out just 13.6% of his opponents in that rookie season while walking 8.6%.

That wound up being Lambert’s only big league exposure for quite some time, as he did not pitch during the shortened 2020 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery that July. He returned to the big league mound near the end of September in 2021, but struggled badly in 5 2/3 innings before missing almost the entire 2022 season due to forearm and elbow issues. Finally healthy in 2023, Lambert returned to the mound and looked a bit better with a 5.36 ERA (108 ERA-) and a 5.44 FIP (119 FIP-) that were a bit closer to average. Lambert pitched 87 1/3 innings split between the rotation and the bullpen for Colorado that year with a career-best 18.9% strikeout rate and a 7.5 walk rate.

That was enough to put him in the conversation for a rotation spot with the Rockies to open the 2024 campaign, though he ultimately lost out on that role to Dakota Hudson. Lambert pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen this past year but took a bit of a step back, with a 5.72 ERA (123 ERA-) in 61 1/3 innings of work. With that being said, the right-hander’s 4.54 FIP (106 FIP-) was nearly league average as he got a better handle on his long-standing home run issues, allowing him to post playable numbers despite a career-worst 10.4% walk rate and a still-lackluster 17.9% strikeout rate.

Lambert was outrighted off of Colorado’s roster back in October and subsequently elected free agency. That’s now led Lambert to explore options overseas, and should his deal with the Swallows become official he’d earn the opportunity to attempt to re-establish himself as a pitcher in Japan while on a far more lucrative contract than he’d have found in the majors, where he’d surely have been limited to only minor league deals. Still a few years from his 30th birthday, there remains plenty of time for Lambert to figure things out overseas and attempt a comeback in the big leagues like many pitchers (such as Miles Mikolas and Matt Moore) have done in the past.

Dodgers Sign David Bote To Minors Contract

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The Dodgers signed infielder David Bote to a minor league deal, according to Aram Leighton of Just Baseball Media.  As per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, the deal includes an invite to the Dodgers’ big league Spring Training camp.

Bote became a free agent when the Cubs bought out (for $1MM) the $7MM club option on his services for the 2025 season.  The Cubs signed Bote to that five-year, $15MM extension in April 2019, after a debut season in the majors that saw Bote hit .239/.319/.408 over 210 plate appearances while seeing at least some action at five different positions.  While Bote wasn’t a notable prospect during his time in the Cubs farm system, Chicago felt it was a decent investment to lock up a player that seemed like at least a decent utility infield fit.

Bote himself initiated the talks about the extension, a decision that proved to be quite wise for his financial security considering how his production tailed off after a big 2019 season.  After hitting .257/.362/.422 with 11 homers in 356 PA in 2019, Bote hit only .200/.285/.353 in 472 total PA in 2020-21.  He rebounded to hit decently well in 2022 but the Cubs still outrighted him off their 40-man roster at season’s end.

Since Bote didn’t have enough service time to reject the outright assignment while retaining the rest of his salary, he remained in the Chicago organization.  Bote didn’t see any big league time in 2023 but had his contract selected again to the Cubs’ roster this past season, as he appeared in 32 games.

Over his last 175 PA at the Major League level, Bote has hit a very respectable .272/.320/.420, translating to a 110 wRC+.  He has played mostly at second and third base with a handful of games at first base, shortstop, and both corner outfield slots, so he adds the kind of versatility that the Dodgers (and among many other teams) value in potential bench pieces.  Bote’s right-handed bat has had a tendency for reverse splits, though his overall numbers in the majors are relatively even against right-handed and left-handed pitching.

Los Angeles obviously already has a very crowded infield picture, especially now that Mookie Betts is being penciled in as the team’s starting shortstop in 2025.  If Bote makes the roster, he can provide depth behind Max Muncy and Gavin Lux at third and second, with Miguel Rojas as the backup shortstop behind Betts.  Should he not break camp with this loaded roster, Bote might consider opting out of his deal to pursue a clearer path to playing time elsewhere, or he could remain in the minors since the Dodgers don’t have much in the way of MLB-experienced depth on the farm.

Rangers Sign Tucker Barnhart To Minors Contract

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The Rangers have signed catcher Tucker Barnhart to a minor league contract, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports.  The deal includes an invitation to the Rangers’ big league Spring Training camp, and Barnhart will earn $1MM if he makes the Texas roster.

Barnhart is the second veteran catcher the Rangers have acquired in the last two weeks, after inking Kyle Higashioka to a two-year, $13.5MM deal.  Jonah Heim is still the starting backstop in Arlington, but Heim’s struggles in 2024 left the Rangers looking for more depth, so Higashioka is expected to get more playing time than a normal backup.  With these two locked into catching duties on the MLB roster, Barnhart and Sam Huff could be Triple-A depth unless an injury emerges.

A two-time Gold Glover from his days as the Reds’ starting catcher, Barnhart’s glovework helped paper over some only serviceable numbers at the plate.  However, Barnhart’s once-modest offensive production has continued to sharply decline, while his glovework dropped to below-average in the view of Defensive Runs Saved (-2) and Statcast’s Catcher Runs metric (-3).

It should be noted that these numbers came in a limited sample size, as Barnhart appeared in only 31 big league games with the Diamondbacks last season.  Even when starter Gabriel Moreno was injured, the D’Backs preferred Jose Herrera for a lot of playing time, and Barnhart was the one designated for assignment and ultimately released after Moreno returned from the injured list.  Barnhart landed with his old team in Cincinnati on a minors deal in August, but his return to the Reds didn’t result in any MLB playing time.

Barnhart has a .241/.318/.351 slash line in 3088 plate appearances across 11 seasons with the Reds, Tigers, Cubs, and Diamondbacks.  Presumably his contract includes the standard veteran opt-out clauses, so Barnhart could end up back on the open market again if he doesn’t see a clear path to playing time on the Rangers’ roster prior to Opening Day.

Cubs Acquire Kyle Tucker

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The Cubs and Astros announced that they have made a trade that will send outfielder Kyle Tucker to Chicago, with infielder Isaac Paredes, right-hander Hayden Wesneski and prospect Cam Smith heading to Houston.

It’s a move that would have been completely shocking as recently as a few weeks ago. Tucker has been a key part of the Astros dynasty and one of the best players in baseball in recent seasons. But over the past few weeks, reports emerged that the Astros were willing to listen to offers on Tucker as they looked to balance their desire to compete with some financial concerns. It appears that talks ramped up quickly and Houston found an offer they considered too good to pass up.

Tucker, 28 in January, was one of many high profile draft picks that went on to be part of the championship nucleus in Houston. The club aggressively tanked last decade, using high draft picks to select players like George Springer, Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr. and others. After failing to sign Brady Aiken, their top pick in 2014, they received a compensation pick in the 2015 draft. That gave them two of the top five picks in 2015, using the second overall pick to draft Alex Bregman and the fifth overall selection on Tucker.

Both picks were big successes, as Bregman and Tucker each established themselves as All-Star capable big leaguers. This deal now officially ends Tucker’s tenure in Houston and might poetically point to the end of Bregman’s as well. Houston decision makers have long pointed to re-signing Bregman, who is currently a free agent, as a top offseason priority. However, the two sides have reportedly remained far apart in negotiations and the pivot to Paredes might signal that Bregman won’t be coming back to Houston after all.

Tucker, 28 in January, hit 89 home runs over the 2021 to 2023 seasons. He hit exactly 30 in the first two of those campaigns and then 29 in the third. He also stole 69 bases in that time, had above average walk and strikeout rates and strong defense. His combined line in that time was .278/.353/.517, which led to a 138 wRC+, indicating he was 38% better than league average. In 2024, he missed about three months due to a shin fracture but his limited performance was even stronger. He hit 23 home runs in just 78 games and his .289/.408/.585 line led to a 180 wRC+.

Putting all of those traits together, Tucker was worth about five wins above replacement in each of the 2021-2023 seasons, per FanGraphs. In 2024, he racked up 4.2 fWAR even though he missed roughly half the year. His 19.1 fWAR over the 2021-2024 stretch puts him 13th among MLB position players, though he played fewer games than everyone ahead of him, thanks to that injury absence.

Unlike some other clubs, the Astros have shown a willingness to let their star players go get paid elsewhere. They did that with Correa, Springer and Gerrit Cole, who went on to sign with the Twins, Blue Jays and Yankees, respectively. That has aligned with a general reluctance to give out massive deals or pay the competitive balance tax. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Jose Altuve’s 2018 extension worth $157.5MM over six years is the biggest deal in franchise history, both in terms of years and dollars. The Astros went over the CBT line in 2020 but didn’t pay any taxes as the system was put on hold in the shortened season. 2024 was the first time they went over the line and actually had to pay the tax.

Coming into this winter, general manager Dana Brown suggested the club needed needed to “get a little bit creative” with the budget. Owner Jim Crane later pushed back on that stance a bit, but it appears the financial constraints are real. Reporting has indicated that the Astros made an offer to Bregman of $156MM but that he is looking for something closer to $200MM.

Tucker’s earning power next winter is likely to be even higher than Bregman’s is now. Bregman is going into his age-31 season now whereas Tucker will be going into his age-29 campaign next winter.

It’s possible the Astros decided they weren’t likely to get a long-term deal done with either player and explored trade talks with Tucker, with this offer ticking a lot of boxes for them. It clears Tucker’s salary, which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects for $15.8MM, off the 2025 books. Redirecting those savings to Bregman is still possible but they’ve also found themselves a potential replacement in Paredes.

Over the past three years, Paredes has hit 70 home runs and slashed .234/.338/.437 for a 123 wRC+. He’s also bounced around the infield, though has been at third base more than anywhere else. His defense at the hot corner has been close to average but it’s still made him roughly a 3-4 fWAR player recently. He is projected to make $6.9MM via arbitration next year and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond that.

Going to Houston might be an especially good fit for him, given that most of his home run power comes via pulling the ball towards the field foul pole. As pointed out by Sarah Langs of MLB.com, his home run total of 19 in 2024 would have been 26 if he played all his games in Houston and could take advantage of the Crawford Boxes.

It’s still possible that Houston could re-sign Bregman and move Paredes over to first base, since the club is also looking for help there, but time will tell how viable that is. Houston could find cheaper solutions at first base and leave Paredes at third for the next few seasons.

The acquisition of Smith also provides the Astros with a potential third baseman for the future. He was just drafted by the Cubs with the 14th overall pick a few months ago and slashed .313/.396/.609 in his professional debut, getting into 32 games across three different levels, finishing at Double-A. If the Astros stick with Paredes at third, Smith could push him for the job in the coming years, with Paredes eventually getting moved across the diamond.

The Astros also add a bit of pitching depth in the deal via Wesneski. The 27-year-old has decent underlying rates thus far in his career but problems with the long ball have pushed lots of runs across the plate. In 190 innings thus far in his career, he has a 23% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. But 35 home runs, a rate of 16.7% per fly ball, have led to a 3.93 ERA. If the Astros can help him keep the ball in the park, he can be a part of their pitching staff for years to come. He has less than two years of service time and can therefore be retained for another five seasons.

The club has plenty of question marks with its pitching right now. Each of McCullers, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and J.P. France missed all or part of 2024 due to notable arm surgeries, so each of those guys is a question mark heading into 2025. Framber Valdez is also a trade candidate in the same vein as Tucker, since he’s set to make an eight-figure salary and is one year away from free agency. Hunter Brown had an uneven season this year. Ronel Blanco was huge for Houston but is fairly limited in terms of starting experience. Spencer Arrighetti was decent in his rookie year but it’s hard to bank on him at this point.

In the bullpen, Ryan Pressly is another trade candidate. He’s set to make $14MM next year, the final season of his deal. Wesneski has worked both as a starter and as a reliever in his career, so he can help Houston in either department.

For the Cubs, it’s a lot to give up, and that’s especially true when looking back to their acquisition of Paredes. They just sent Christopher Morel, Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson to the Rays a few months ago, getting Paredes ahead of the summer deadline. In a sense, they have given up those three players plus Smith and Wesneski in order to get just one season of Tucker.

But there are good reasons why they have paid such a price. The club has been hovering around .500 in recent years, having a squad full of good players but lacking in truly elite ones. They also possess a very strong pipeline of prospects, several of whom are pushing for major league playing time. They have shown a reluctance to pay top dollar for free agents, so a big trade has seemed like the best way for them to upgrade the roster.

Tucker certainly qualifies. As mentioned, he has been one of the best position players in the majors recently and immediately becomes the best player for the Cubbies. Perhaps the Cubs will look to work out an extension with Tucker but that would require a very notable contract, the kind they haven’t given out recently. Even if Tucker is only at Wrigley for one year, the Cubs will at least be able to recoup draft pick compensation by issuing him the qualifying offer after 2025.

In addition to that, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is in the final year of his contract. With the Cardinals taking their foot of the gas pedal next year and the Reds and Pirates still struggling to come out of rebuilds, there’s a window for the Cubs to take a step forward, push the Brewers for the division and get Hoyer some extra job security.

It’s also possible that they won’t miss any of the pieces they gave up too much, even though they make a lot of sense for Houston. As mentioned, the Cubs have an excellent farm system. On Baseball America’s Top 100, they currently have six players on the list, which doesn’t even include Smith. Though it surely hurts to give up their most recent first round pick, the farm is still in good shape overall.

That farm might also be able to provide an immediate Paredes replacement. One of the club’s top prospects is Matt Shaw, who has played a bit of middle infield but a bit more at third.  He split last season between Double-A and Triple-A, slashing .284/.379/.488 for a 146 wRC+. If the Cubs feel Shaw is ready to make the jump to the majors, that may have made Paredes expendable. Wesneski is also a talented pitcher but he’s been squeezed from the rotation plans in Chicago and largely kept in a swing role.

It’s a huge move for both clubs and will surely lead to more, especially for the Cubs. They already had a crowded outfield mix even before adding Tucker into it. They also have Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, not to mention prospects Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie. They have reportedly been trying to work out a deal involving Bellinger or, to a lesser extent, Suzuki. Happ and Suzuki both have no-trade clauses, making them difficult to move. Bellinger has an opt-out after 2025, which also makes him a tricky trade candidate.

One way or another, a move from that group feels inevitable. The Yankees have been connected to both Tucker and Bellinger, so perhaps they will now focus more on the latter now that they didn’t get Tucker.

For the Astros, what’s still unknown is if the door is totally closed to Bregman. It certainly feels like that may be the case, though it’s not impossible to see a path back to Houston. RosterResource estimates their competitive balance tax number at $225MM, which is $16MM shy of next year’s $241MM base threshold. Signing Bregman would certainly push them over, though not by as much now that Tucker’s gone. They could also theoretically lower their number by trading Valdez or Pressly. Then again, they’ve been talking about signing a new deal with Bregman for two years without it happening, so perhaps this is the door finally closing.

It’s also unknown if Houston is content with its Tucker-less outfield. Yordan Alvarez is a strong hitter but often relegated to DH duties due to ongoing knee issues. Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick and Taylor Trammell are other options on the roster, along with utility types like Mauricio Dubón and Shay Whitcomb. The group obviously looks weaker without Tucker in it, so perhaps the Astros will look to bolster the group in the coming weeks and months.

Time will tell how the move plays out in the full offseason for both clubs. But for today, the Cubs have added a huge talent to the roster without giving up anything truly heartbreaking. The Astros have lost that huge talent but could have made up a decent amount of his value in the short term while clearly helping themselves in the long term.

Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reported this morning that the Cubs and Astros were “circling” on a deal involving Tucker, Paredes and Smith. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first mentioned Wesneski’s inclusion. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the deal was done.

Yankees Acquire Devin Williams For Nestor Cortes, Caleb Durbin

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The Winter Meetings might be done, but the big trades aren’t. The Yankees and Brewers on Friday agreed to a trade sending star closer Devin Williams to New York in exchange for left-hander Nestor Cortes, infield prospect Caleb Durbin and a reported $2MM in cash.

Both Williams and Cortes are entering their final seasons of club control, and both were projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.7MM in 2025. Milwaukee will still come out ahead a couple million dollars, which is of some moderate note, as the Brewers are working on an extremely tight budget this winter. Durbin, meanwhile, is a second baseman with experience at the hot corner. He was added to the Yankees’ 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 protection deadline and is likely to slot in at second or third base in 2025, with one of Brice Turang or Joey Ortiz moving to shortstop in place of Willy Adames, who signed with the Giants as a free agent.

Williams, 30, is one of the game’s elite relievers. The 2020 National League Rookie of the Year, he boasts a career 1.83 earned run average with 68 saves, 60 holds, a 39.4% strikeout rate and 48.1% ground-ball rate in his big league career. Command has been an issue at times (11.8% walk rate), but Williams’ utterly devastating changeup — nicknamed the “Airbender” — is one of the most dominant pitches in the entire sport. He’s finished off 2299 big league plate appearances with that pitch, during which opponents have posted a comically feeble .139/.223/.200. The pitch boasts a preposterous 23% swinging-strike rate.

Among pitchers with at least 200 innings pitched since 2019, Emmanuel Clase (1.67) is the only pitcher with a better ERA than Williams’ 1.83 mark. No other pitcher is within even 40 points. (Jacob deGrom is next, at 2.24.) In that same time, only Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz have posted higher strikeout rates than Williams’ 39.4%. Only Gerrit Cole has a higher mark in terms of win probability added. Hader is second in WPA among relievers, but his 12.46 mark isn’t close to Williams’ 14.24. Sports Info Solutions credits Williams’ changeup as far and away the most valuable pitch of its type in the majors.

Dominant as Williams has been, he’ll come to the Yankees with some recent injury concerns. A stress fracture in his lower back caused the right-hander to miss the first four months of the 2024 season. Williams wasn’t activated for his 2024 debut until July 28. Once healthy, he generally looked like his dominant self, rattling off 21 2/3 innings with a microscopic 1.25 ERA, a massive 43.2% strikeout rate and an unsightly 12.5% walk rate (that was largely mitigated by his near-unparalleled ability to rack up strikeouts). Of course, the lasting memory for many fans will unfortunately be the backbreaking three-run homer that Williams surrendered to Pete Alonso in Milwaukee’s NLDS loss to the Mets.

Similarly, one of Cortes’ final moments as a Yankee is one he’d like to forget. The left-hander served up a walk-off grand slam to Freddie Freeman in Game 1 of the World Series — the first of four Gibson-esque home runs the hobbled L.A. first baseman swatted en route to World Series MVP honors. As with Williams, there are some notable 2024 health concerns; Cortes gutted his way through a late-season flexor strain to return to the Yankees in the postseason. Cortes was also limited to 12 starts in 2023, thanks to a strain in his rotator cuff. Clearly, both clubs are satisfied with the medical reports on the veterans they’re acquiring.

Cortes, who just turned 30, has been a rock-solid mid-rotation arm when healthy in recent seasons. Dating back to his 2021 breakout with the Yankees, he’s pitched 489 innings with a 3.33 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate. The ERA is skewed by the 4.97 mark he logged in ’23 when dealing with that shoulder strain, but Cortes has been quite effective in three of the past four seasons.

In 2024, Cortes pitched a career-high 174 1/3 innings while sitting a career-best 92.1 mph with his four-seamer. The lefty fanned 22.8% of his opponents and notched a career-best 5.5% walk rate. If he can deliver anything close to that, the Brewers will surely be thrilled. Adding to the rotation was a significant need for the Brewers this offseason, but they’ve been operating with minimal resources as they try to find creative ways to do so.

Cortes will give Milwaukee an experienced arm to slot in behind Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff (returning from 2023 shoulder surgery), Aaron Civale and diamond-in-the-rough Tobias Myers. The Brewers also have lefties Aaron Ashby and DL Hall as rotation candidates, plus young righties Carlos Rodriguez, Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick on the 40-man roster but likely ticketed for Triple-A.

With a full, healthy season, there’s a chance Cortes is a more valuable pitcher on the whole than Williams. He’s been worth about 10 wins above replacement over the past four seasons, per both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs (even when accounting for his poor showing in an injury-marred 2023 season). For the Yankees, however, he was no more than sixth or seventh on the depth chart — not with Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt and Marcus Stroman all on the roster.

For the Yankees, the deal is about not only beefing up their bullpen during the regular season but more specifically about bolstering their postseason roster, where Williams would be a focal piece and Cortes would be relegated to a lower-leverage relief role. In that sense, there are some parallels with the 2022 Jordan Montgomery/Harrison Bader swap: ship out a starter who’s not in the playoff rotation in exchange for someone who’ll have greater impact on postseason results. In the end, the trade involves both teams dealing from areas of strength.

The Milwaukee bullpen, after all, was one of the best in baseball last season — even in a year where Williams missed two-thirds of the year. The Brewers’ collective 3.11 bullpen ERA ranked second in the sport, and they were top-10 in terms of FIP (3.78, seventh), walk rate (8.3%, ninth) and K-BB% (15.5, tenth). With Williams out of the picture, they’ll likely look to Trevor Megill (2.72 ERA, 27.3 K%), Joel Payamps (3.05 ERA, 25.1 K%) and Bryan Hudson (1.73 ERA, 26.8 K%) for late-inning work. The previously mentioned Ashby (1.37 ERA, 36.8 K%, 19 1/3 innings) and Hall (3.00 ERA, 26.5 K%, 12 innings) also looked impressive when working as relievers.

The other major piece of the puzzle for the Brewers, of course, is the 24-year-old Durbin. Milwaukee lost Adames to free agency this offseason and has been in search of infield help but with scant money to spend. Durbin could slot in at second or third base, with one of Ortiz or Turang sliding over to shortstop. He could also simply give the Brewers a versatile utility option with intriguing contact skills and speed.

Durbin, who came to the Yankees from the Braves in exchange for Lucas Luetge, spent the bulk of the 2024 season in Triple-A Scranton Wilkes/Barre. He missed more than two months after being hit by a pitch on the wrist in May, but when he was healthy he was quite impressive. An infielder from the Altuve mold, Durbin is listed at just 5’6″ but nevertheless hit .287/.396/.471 (129 wRC+) with 10 homers and 31 stolen bases in 82 Triple-A games (375 plate appearances). He walked more than he struck out, drawing a free pass in 12.5% of his plate appearances versus a 9.9% strikeout rate.

With Durbin having missed a notable chunk of the season, the Yankees sent him to the Arizona Fall League to pick up some extra reps. He thrived there, hitting .312/.427/.548 with another five home runs and an AFL-record 29 stolen bases in 24 games (117 plate appearances). As he did in Triple-A, Durbin recorded more walks (17) than strikeouts (six).

Durbin has yet to take a single big league plate appearance, but the success he’s had in Triple-A and in the Arizona Fall League — coupled with the Brewers’ needs in the infield — give him a legitimate chance to break camp with the club. He might need to earn his way into a starting gig this spring, and his ultimate role will depend on any subsequent moves the Brewers make, but he’s very clearly an option to help the club in 2025. As it stands, he’s controllable through at least the 2030 season.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Yankees and Brewers were finalizing a Williams trade. Will Sammon of The Athletic reported that the deal was in place. Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Cortes was in the deal. Durbin’s inclusion was first reported by Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reported that there was cash in the deal, and Nightengale chimed in with the exact amount.

Pirates, Carson Fulmer Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Pirates are in agreement with right-hander Carson Fulmer on a minor league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). The Icon Sports Management client will be in MLB camp as a non-roster invitee.

Pittsburgh’s interest in the 31-year-old Fulmer as a depth option goes back a few years. They claimed the former eighth overall pick off waivers twice during the 2020 season. Pittsburgh never used in an MLB game and designated him for assignment early in the following year. While Fulmer hasn’t donned a Bucs uniform in the majors, he has appeared for five teams over a career spanning parts of eight seasons. A good portion of that work came with the White Sox early in his career.

After bouncing around in journeyman fashion, Fulmer found something of a home with the Angels. He inked a minor league deal with the Halos in 2023 and nabbed a spot on the big league roster late in the season. While they waived him at season’s end, they brought him back on another minor league deal and called him up within two weeks of the ’24 campaign.

Fulmer stuck on the roster for the rest of the season. He started eight of 37 appearances and logged a career-high 86 2/3 innings. The Vanderbilt product turned in a 4.15 ERA with a 21.4% strikeout rate that’s a little below average. He issued walks at a slight elevated 10.6% rate. The Halos ran him through waivers at the end of the year, sending him back to minor league free agency. He’ll battle for a spot in Derek Shelton’s bullpen during Spring Training.

Cubs Sign Carson Kelly

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The Cubs finalized a two-year free agent deal with catcher Carson Kelly on Friday evening. The CAA client is reportedly guaranteed $11.5MM with the chance to earn another $500K annually via incentives. Kelly will make $5MM salaries in each of the next two seasons and is guaranteed a $1.5MM buyout on a $7.5MM mutual option for 2027. He’d trigger a $250K bonus for starting 81 and 91 games in each season. Chicago already had a 40-man roster vacancy after dealing two roster players in this afternoon’s Kyle Tucker trade.

Kelly was the top unsigned catcher. The thin market has moved quickly. Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Higashioka, Gary Sánchez, Danny Jansen, Jacob Stallings and Austin Hedges have all gotten MLB deals. Kelly joins Higashioka and d’Arnaud in securing a second guaranteed year and exceeding the $10MM mark.

The righty-swinging backstop had a nice year in 2024. Kelly started the season particularly well, hitting .240/.325/.391 with seven home runs in 203 trips to the plate for the Tigers. Detroit dealt him to the Rangers at the deadline. That was designed to give Kelly a chance to join a contender, but the Rangers sputtered while the Tigers made a surprise playoff push in the final couple months. Kelly’s bat tailed off after the move, as he hit .235/.291/.343 with two homers over 31 games as a Ranger.

That mediocre finish led Texas to pursue Higashioka instead. Still, Kelly’s combined .238/.313/.374 slash line in 313 plate appearances is solid work from a part-time catcher. Statcast graded him positively for his work behind the plate, crediting him with better than average framing and blocking metrics. While Kelly’s raw arm strength was middle of the pack, he cut down an above-average 26.3% of basestealers.

That was a rebound after Kelly had consecutive poor offensive showings in 2022 and ’23. He combined for a .210/.281/.320 slash between the Diamondbacks and Tigers. Kelly had intermittently shown the upside to be a true #1 catcher early in his career in Arizona. He has since settled in as a quality part-time player.

That’s the role he should play in Chicago. The Cubs can somewhat evenly divide playing time between Kelly and 25-year-old Miguel Amaya. A former top prospect, Amaya struggled early in the year before going on a tear in the final two months of the season. He ended the season with a .232/.288/.357 slash over 363 plate appearances. The strong finish wasn’t enough for the Cubs to forego the catching market entirely, yet it lessened their urgency to entertain trading from the top of the farm system for a clear starter.

Kelly’s salary bumps Chicago’s projected payroll to roughly $199MM, according to the calculations at RosterResource. The $5.75MM average annual value pushes their estimated competitive balance tax number to $215MM. That leaves them around $25MM below the base luxury tax threshold.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported on Monday that the Cubs and Kelly were closing in on a deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the $11.5MM guarantee. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers first reported the presence of the ’27 mutual option and the potential $500K in annual incentives. Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic had the salary breakdown and specifics on the bonuses. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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