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Padres, Moises Gomez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Padres agreed to a minor league contract with Moisés Gómez last month, according to the MLB.com transaction log. The 26-year-old corner outfielder had been outrighted and released by the Cardinals last season.

Gómez is working to get to the big leagues for the first time. He seemed on track after hitting 39 homers in the minor leagues in 2022. That earned him a 40-man roster spot with St. Louis. Gómez spent the entire ’23 campaign on optional assignment to their Triple-A affiliate. He popped another 30 homers but hit .232 with a .293 on-base percentage. That wasn’t enough to crack the MLB roster. St. Louis sent him through outright waivers last February.

The righty-hitting outfielder again opened the season at the Triple-A level. He hit .208 and saw his power production evaporate, as he only managed three longballs in 45 games before being released. Gómez closed the season in the independent American Association. He has mashed in winter ball in his native Venezuela this offseason. Gómez is hitting .273/.396/.613 with 15 longballs in 48 winter ball games.

San Diego will give him an opportunity to rebound from his difficult past two seasons. Gómez has big power, hitting 127 homers in parts of nine minor league seasons between the Tampa Bay and St. Louis systems. That includes 49 longballs in fewer than 1000 Triple-A plate appearances, though he’s a .236/.303/.452 hitter at that level. He has punched out in nearly a third of his trips to the plate in Triple-A.

Angels, Sebastian Rivero Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Angels signed catcher Sebastián Rivero to a minor league contract last month, as reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. It’s unclear if he’ll be invited to major league Spring Training.

Rivero, 26, has two seasons of major league experience. He played in 34 games for the Royals between 2021-22, hitting .167 without a home run over 73 trips to the plate. Kansas City released him after the ’22 campaign. The Venezuelan-born catcher has spent the past two seasons in the upper minors, dividing his time between the White Sox and Braves organizations. He hit .186/.239/.249 in 75 games between Double-A and Triple-A in the Atlanta system a year ago. Rivero has been playing winter ball, where he’s hitting .182 in 21 games.

While there’s clearly not a ton of offensive upside, Rivero adds catching depth to the upper levels of the minors. He has started nearly 400 games and caught almost 3500 innings in his minor league career. Rivero has cut down around a quarter of attempted basestealers in each of the last two seasons.

Logan O’Hoppe and Travis d’Arnaud will divide the catching duties at Angel Stadium. Recent trade pickup Chuckie Robinson projects as the top depth option as the only other catcher on the 40-man roster. They hadn’t had any non-roster catchers with major league experience before signing Rivero, who could back Robinson up at Triple-A Salt Lake.

White Sox Acquire Tyler Gilbert

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The White Sox have acquired left-hander Tyler Gilbert from the Phillies, per an announcement from Philadelphia. Chicago sent right-hander Aaron Combs back to the Phillies in exchange for Gilbert’s services. Gilbert had been designated for assignment by the Phillies prior to the holidays. The White Sox designated infielder Braden Shewmake for assignment to make room for Gilbert on their 40-man roster.

Gilbert, 31, pitched just 8 1/3 innings for the Phillies this year after signing a minor league deal with the Reds last winter and being traded to Philadelphia back in May. A sixth-round pick by the Phillies back in 2015, he was surrendered to Arizona in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft and made his big league debut as a Diamondback during the 2021 season. The lefty had a rather impressive rookie season, as he posted a 3.15 ERA (135 ERA+) with a 4.27 FIP in 40 innings of work for the Snakes spread between six starts and three relief appearances. The highlight of his rookie campaign (and of his career to this point) was a no-hitter in his first career MLB start, where he struck out five Padres while walking three over his nine hitless innings of work.

Unfortunately, Gilbert’s next two seasons in the desert didn’t go quite as well. He struggled to a 5.23 ERA with a 5.10 FIP in 51 2/3 innings of work between 2022 and ’23, with a paltry 17.9% strikeout rate and a penchant for allowing home runs being the main culprits of the lefty’s difficulties. Those difficulties led to Gilbert being outrighted off the club’s roster following the 2023 season, which led to him electing free agency and signing that aforementioned minor league deal in Cincinnati. After rejoining the Phillies, Gilbert posted a solid enough 3.24 ERA in 8 1/3 innings of work at the big league level and paired that with an excellent run of outings at Triple-A, where he pitched to a 2.25 ERA in 40 frames across 31 appearances for the club’s LeHigh Valley affiliate. Impressive as those minor league numbers were, however, Gilbert found himself squeezed off the club’s 40-man roster just before the holidays due to the Jesús Luzardo trade.

Now that he’s in Chicago, Gilbert could find himself in the mix for starts at the big league level in what figures to be a fairly wide-open competition for starts on the south side. Jonathan Cannon, Bryse Wilson, and Drew Thorpe all seem likely to be part of the club’s Opening Day rotation if healthy, but beyond that trio a number of possible options exist including Davis Martin, Sean Burke, Jake Eder, Ky Bush, and Nick Nastrini. If Gilbert doesn’t make the club’s rotation, it’s to imagine him providing left-handed relief depth alongside Jared Shuster and Cam Booser for the club this year.

In return for Gilbert’s services, the Phillies add a right-handed minor leaguer in Combs. The White Sox’ eighth rounder in the 2024 draft, Combs has just 7 2/3 innings of work at the minor league level under his belt but struck out an impressive 39.4% of opponents at the Single-A level in his pro debut down the stretch last year. Prior to being drafted, Combs posted a 3.24 ERA in 66 2/3 innings of work pitching in the SEC. The youngster just turned 23 last week and is hardly a sure bet to influence the club in 2025, but the impressive stuff he flashed last season could carry him through the minors fairly quickly.

In order to fit Gilbert on their roster, the White Sox part ways with Shewmake. The 27-year-old was a first-round pick by the Braves in 2019 and eventually made his big league debut with the club in 2023, though that cup of coffee lasted just two games and ended before Shewmake recorded his first big league hit. He was shipped to Chicago last winter as part of the trade that brought Aaron Bummer to Atlanta, but dealt with injuries during his first year in Chicago and was limited to just 39 games between Triple-A and the majors. Those games did not go especially well, as he posted a .152/.152/.182 slash line in ten minor league games. That’s more or less in line with what he did in the majors, as well: in 67 trips to the plate, Shewmake hit just .125/.134/.203 (-15 wRC+). The White Sox will have one week to waive or trade Shewmake, and if he clears waivers successfully they’ll have the opportunity to outright him to the minors as non-roster depth for the coming season.

Nationals Re-Sign Trevor Williams

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The Nationals officially announced the re-signing of Trevor Williams to a two-year free agent deal. It’s reportedly a $14MM guarantee for the John Boggs & Associates client. The veteran right-hander turns 33 next April.

The last time Williams was a free agent, he signed a two-year, $13MM pact with Washington. Despite an uneven performance over the past two seasons, he showed enough upside to convince the club to bring him back on an almost identical deal. In 2023, the righty was an innings eater for the Nationals, providing them with 144 1/3 frames in 30 starts. It was the first time he passed the 100-inning threshold since 2019. However, there was little else to like about his performance. No NL pitcher (min. 140 IP) had a higher ERA than Williams that year. He also finished among the bottom five in strikeout rate, SIERA, and xERA. Things turned especially sour at the end of the year; he gave up 33 runs (32 earned) in 35 2/3 innings over his final eight starts.

The 2024 season was a completely different story. Williams got off to a red-hot start, pitching to a 2.22 ERA across 11 outings in April and May. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to do the one thing he did well in 2023: stay on the field. A flexor muscle strain in his pitching arm kept him out for nearly four months from May to September. He continued to see great results in two starts upon his return (10 IP, 1 ER, 12 K), but he finished the year with just 13 starts and 66 2/3 innings under his belt.

Most of the underlying data indicates Williams wasn’t quite as dominant as he seemed on the surface. His .267 BABIP and 4.2% home run-to-fly ball ratios were well below his career averages, while his 80.2% left-on-base percentage was well above his typical rate. His 22.7% strikeout rate marked a significant improvement from the year before, but it was only a touch above league average for a starting pitcher. Thus, his 3.96 SIERA was significantly higher than his 2.03 ERA.

Regardless, Williams was still a productive starter when he was on the field, even if the peripheral numbers suggest he was more of a mid-rotation arm than an ace. If he can figure out how to combine the best parts of his 2023 and ’24 seasons, he will be well worth a $7MM annual salary over the next two seasons. Of course, it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll be able to do that. Williams has reached 30 starts just twice in his nine-year MLB tenure, and he came into the 2024 season with a career 4.48 ERA and 4.66 SIERA. He is also entering his mid-thirties. In theory, his excellent command should help him thrive as an older starter. Then again, he could be in real trouble if he loses any more velocity on his four-seam fastball. It was a valuable pitch in 2024, but at 88.9 mph, it’s already one of the slowest heaters in the league.

Williams will return to a Nationals rotation that also features de facto ace MacKenzie Gore, free agent acquisition (and project) Michael Soroka, and a handful of mid-to-back-end types who broke out for Washington last year: Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz. Top prospect Cade Cavalli will also factor into the equation, although Spencer Nusbaum of the Washington Post notes that the team will be monitoring Cavalli’s innings in 2025 and could option him to Triple-A to begin the year. Meanwhile, Josiah Gray is recovering from Tommy John surgery and will be out for most (if not all) of the 2025 campaign. It’s unclear how manager Dave Martinez will set up his rotation to begin the season, but barring an injury or a disastrous performance this spring, it feels safe to presume that Williams be one of the starting five (or six?) come Opening Day.

Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Athletic first reported the Nationals were re-signing Williams on a two-year, $14MM deal.

Orioles Sign Nick Gordon To Minors Contract

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The Orioles announced that utilityman Nick Gordon has been signed to a minor league contract.  Gordon hit the open market after electing to become a minor league free agent after the season, following an outright off the Marlins’ roster in August.

Injuries and some struggles in the upper minors kept Gordon from making his MLB debut until 2021 and his age-25 season, but as recently as the 2022 season, Gordon hit .272/.316/.427 with nine homers over 443 plate appearances and 136 games with the Twins.  While not the heights expected of Gordon as the fifth overall pick of the 2014 draft, it seemed like he’d found a nice niche for himself as a multi-positional weapon, as he saw a lot of playing time in left field, center field, and both middle infield spots that season.

In 2023, however, Gordon got off to a slow start and then fractured his shin on a foul ball in May.  He played in a few Triple-A games in September but the injury ended his Major League season after 34 games and a .503 OPS over 93 PA.

This ended up also being the end of Gordon’s tenure in Minnesota, as the Twins dealt him to the Marlins last February for lefty Steven Okert.  The change of scenery didn’t help Gordon, as he hit .227/.258/.369 over 275 PA and 95 games, playing primarily in left field with some time in center and at second base.  With the Marlins wanting to give more playing time to younger players down the stretch, Gordon was designated for assignment and then outrighted in August.

The Orioles might also have some interest in seeing if Gordon can be a late bloomer at age 29, similar to how the O’s struck gold in revitalizing Ryan O’Hearn’s career in 2023.  However, it is more likely Baltimore views Gordon as more of a depth signing to add some veteran experience to the minor league ranks, as the Orioles are already deep in left-handed hitting outfielders and middle infielders.

Cubs Sign Caleb Thielbar

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The Cubs announced that left-hander Caleb Thielbar has been signed to a one-year, Major League contract.  Thielbar (who turns 38 in January) is represented by ISE. Thielbar’s deal guarantees him $2.75MM, according to a report from Jordan Bastian of MLB.com.

Chicago is the seventh different MLB team Thielbar has been a part of since his pro career began as an 18th-round pick for the Brewers in the 2009 draft.  Despite this journeyman resume, all Thielbar’s 320 big league innings over eight seasons have come with the Twins, in two separate stints from 2013-15 and then 2020-24.  That second stretch with Minnesota revived Thielbar’s career entirely, as he had taken on a coaching job in college following the 2019 season before he was lured back with another minor league deal from the Twins.

Thielbar’s second act saw him emerge as a quietly effective weapon out of Minnesota’s bullpen.  He posted a 3.21 ERA, 30.2% strikeout rate, and 7.4% walk rate over 174 innings from 2020-23, inducing a lot of soft contact along with those missed bats and limited free passes.  Over his career, Thielbar has limited left-handed batters to a meager .213/.265/.328 slash line over 553 plate appearances, and his splits against righty-swingers (.240/.310/.401 in 773 PA) is also very respectable, even though right-handed bats have hit Thielbar harder over the last two seasons.

2024 was a much more difficult season, as Thielbar struggled to a 5.32 ERA and his walk rate shot upwards to 11.1%.  The southpaw’s strikeout rate was still above the league average but it also sharply dropped off to 24.5%.  An early-season hamstring strain might have been partially responsible, as Thielbar had an 8.04 ERA in his first 15 2/3 innings of the season before somewhat stabilizing to a 3.98 in his remaining 31 2/3 frames.

Thielbar’s short-term, cost-efficient contract fits Jed Hoyer’s preferred model for reliever contracts during Hoyer’s four-year tenure as Chicago’s president of baseball operations.  The Cubs were thin on left-handed bullpen candidates, and Thielbar now joins a list of options that includes Rob Zastryzny, Luke Little, and potentially Jordan Wicks unless the Cubs want to keep Wicks stretched out for starter duty.  Chicago figures to augment this group with at least one more southpaw before the season opens, whether on another guaranteed deal like Thielbar or in the form of trades or minor league signings.

Rangers Sign David Buchanan To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers have signed right-hander David Buchanan to a minor league contract, MLB Trade Rumors has learned.  The deal contains an invitation for the 35-year-old Buchanan to attend the Rangers’ big league Spring Training camp.

Buchanan hit the open market after electing minor league free agency at season’s end, following an outright off the Reds’ 40-man roster in September.  Buchanan signed a minors deal with the Phillies last February and spent the entire 2024 campaign in the minors until Cincinnati acquired him in a trade in late August.  The injury-ravaged Reds were looking for fresh arms to cover innings, and this need led to Buchanan tossing 3 1/3 innings in Cincinnati’s 5-4 loss to the Brewers on August 31.

Though he was designated for assignment the next day, getting into that single game was still a noteworthy milestone Buchanan, as it marked his first MLB appearance since October 4, 2015.  A seventh-round pick for the Phillies in the 2010 draft, Buchanan posted a 5.01 ERA over 35 starts and 192 1/3 innings for Philadelphia over the 2014-15 seasons before spending 2016 back at the Phils’ Triple-A affiliate in Lehigh Valley.

The righty then embarked on a long stint overseas, beginning with three seasons with the Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball from 2017-19.  While Buchanan’s time in Japan had its ups and downs, he found much more consistency while pitching with the KBO League’s Samsung Lions over the 2020-23 seasons.  Buchanan posted a 3.02 ERA in 113 starts and 699 2/3 innings with the Lions, earning KBO All-Star nods in both 2022 and 2023.  Buchanan took his reputation as a groundball pitcher to extreme heights in South Korea, posting grounder rates of over 70% during his time with the Lions.

Buchanan’s grounder rates normalized greatly when back in Triple-A ball last season, and he posted a 4.86 ERA, 17.1% strikeout rate, and 6.88% walk rate across 124 total innings with the Phillies’ and Reds’ top affiliates.  He worked as both a starter and as a long reliever, so he provides Texas with an interesting swingman option heading into Spring Training.  Between Buchanan’s lack of strikeouts and the Rangers’ focus on their bullpen this offseason, Buchanan is likely ticketed for long relief work if he cracks the active roster, but that’s still a solid role on a team looking to amass as much pitching depth as possible given the injury concerns within the rotation.

Astros, Miguel Castro Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Astros are in agreement with reliever Miguel Castro, as first reported by Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 specifies that it’s a minor league contract with a non-roster Spring Training invite. Castro, a client of Premier Talent Sports and Entertainment, would lock in a $1.5MM base salary if he makes the MLB roster, according to Alexander.

Castro, who turned 30 last week, is aiming to pitch his way onto an MLB roster for an 11th straight year. The well-traveled righty has suited up for six different teams. Castro carries a 4.20 earned run average in nearly 500 MLB innings. He’d generally posted an ERA in the low-4.00s, including a 4.31 mark through an NL-high 75 appearances for the Diamondbacks in 2023. That triggered a $5MM vesting option for the ’24 season.

That didn’t work out well for Arizona. Shoulder inflammation sent Castro to the injured list midway through April. He was shelved until the All-Star Break. Castro made 11 appearances and surrendered nine runs over 13 2/3 innings. Arizona designated him for assignment just before the trade deadline. They released him at the start of August. Castro spent the rest of the season in free agency.

Houston has a thin relief group that should give Castro a real chance to earn a roster spot out of camp. Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu and (barring a late-offseason trade) Ryan Pressly will be at the back end. Tayler Scott is out of options and pitched well enough to lock down a middle relief job. That leaves as many as four spots up for grabs. Even if the Astros bring in a veteran on a low-cost MLB deal, Castro could vie with Shawn Dubin, Forrest Whitley and Kaleb Ort for low-leverage work.

Yankees Sign Paul Goldschmidt

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The Yankees officially announced the signing of Paul Goldschmidt to a one-year contract. The Excel Sports Management client is reportedly guaranteed $12.5MM.

Nightengale describes the Yankees’ pursuit of Goldschmidt this week as aggressive, though he notes they were also in talks with Christian Walker before he signed with the Astros. Carlos Santana was another first baseman New York reportedly considered. The Yankees had also been linked to Pete Alonso earlier in the offseason, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that they were “increasingly likely” to opt for a less expensive first base signing.

Indeed, Goldschmidt’s $12.5MM salary is well below the three-year, $60MM guarantee Walker received from Houston and the five-year, $125MM deal MLBTR predicted for Alonso. It’s also below the one-year, $15MM pact we predicted for Goldschmidt when we ranked him at no. 35 on our Top 50 Free Agents list.

Goldschmidt, 37, was a free agent for the first time in his career. Drafted by the Diamondbacks in 2009, he made his big league debut with Arizona in 2011. After a strong start to his MLB career, he signed an extension with the D-backs that kept him under team control through the 2019 season. Upon being traded to the Cardinals in 2019, he signed another extension that ran through 2024. Through those years with Arizona and St. Louis, Goldschmidt was one of the best players in baseball. He made seven All-Star teams, won five Silver Sluggers, and earned NL MVP honors in 2022. Over 1928 career games, he has slashed .289/.381/.510 with 362 home runs and a 139 wRC+.

Since his MVP season in 2022, Goldschmidt has taken a few steps back. His .810 OPS and 122 wRC+ in 2023 were more good than great, while his .716 OPS and 100 wRC+ in 2024 were merely league average. That’s not an encouraging trend for a first baseman entering his late thirties. However, Goldschmidt’s underlying numbers in 2024 offer a little more promise. His .308 batting average on balls in play was well below his career average of .343. Similarly, his .310 wOBA was noticeably worse than his .329 xwOBA. A .329 wOBA still would have been the worst of his career, but it also would have been significantly better than league average. Finally, Goldschmidt’s second-half performance was vastly superior to his first-half effort. Through the All-Star break, he was slashing .230/.291/.373 with an 87 wRC+. From the break onward, he hit .271/.319/.480 with a 120 wRC+.

The Yankees are surely hoping Goldschmidt looks like his second-half self throughout the 2025 season. However, even his mediocre full-season numbers would be a big upgrade over what the Yankees got from their first basemen in 2024. Yankees first basemen ranked last in MLB in OPS (.619), second-to-last in wRC+ (76), and 26th in FanGraphs WAR (-1.1). If Goldschmidt can simply repeat his 2024 campaign, the Yankees would get a big boost over the combination of Anthony Rizzo, Ben Rice, and DJ LeMahieu. That will be especially true against left-handed pitching. Goldschmidt slashed .295/.366/.473 with a 134 wRC+ against lefties this past season. Meanwhile, New York’s offense was significantly worse against lefties than righties. Goldschmidt should be a big help in that department.

On the defensive side, Goldschmidt, a four-time Gold Glove winner, will undoubtedly play first base for the Yankees. That will push recent trade acquisition Cody Bellinger into the outfield. It always seemed likely that Bellinger would play the outfield in New York, but manager Aaron Boone suggested earlier this week that first base was still an option. It’s safe to say that option is now off the table.

If the Yankees are still looking to add another bat, third base could be the next avenue they turn to for improvement. Jazz Chisholm Jr. took over at the hot corner after the trade deadline in 2024, but second base is his natural position. By sliding back to second, he could give the Yankees more flexibility to seek an upgrade in the infield. Some intriguing options at third base include free agent Alex Bregman and trade candidate Nolan Arenado. The Yankees have already expressed interest in both players.

Adding either Bregman or Arenado would likely push the team’s payroll above last year’s final estimate of $303MM (per RosterResource). It would also put them above the highest tier of the luxury tax once again. Although it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Yankees run such a high payroll in 2025, it’s worth keeping in mind that even the Steinbrenner’s have their spending limits. Chairman Hal Steinbrenner said earlier this year that the team’s current payroll is “simply not sustainable for us financially.” The fact that the Yankees were outbid for Juan Soto and that they were seeking a less expensive first baseman like Goldschmidt further suggests that GM Brian Cashman is working under payroll constraints. Those constraints could impact how the team operates for the rest of the offseason.

Jack Curry of the YES Network first reported the Yankees and Goldschmidt had agreed to a one-year deal. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first on the salary.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Diamondbacks Sign Corbin Burnes

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The Diamondbacks have officially announced their signing of Corbin Burnes to a six-year free agent deal. Burnes, a client of the Boras Corporation, is reportedly guaranteed $210MM and can opt out after two seasons. He’ll collect a $10MM signing bonus up front and is due $30MM salaries in the first two years. He’d need to weigh whether to leave the remaining four years and $140MM on the table after 2026. The contract reportedly includes roughly $60MM in deferred money and varying no-trade protection over the course of the deal.

The news is a shocking turn of events, as Burnes had garnered plenty of interest in free agency but had not been connected to Arizona at any point in the offseason. While some rumored suitors for the right-hander’s services such as the Yankees and Red Sox turned to alternative options for the front of their rotations by signing Max Fried and trading for Garrett Crochet respectively, a number of known interested parties remained in the mix. That included not only the incumbent Orioles but also the big-market Giants and Blue Jays, both of whom USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports offered Burnes a higher guarantee.

However, Burnes lives in Scottsdale, and playing close to home seems to have inspired the right-hander’s decision. According to Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic, Burnes was the one who approached the Diamondbacks “expressing a desire to pitch in Arizona.” John Gambadoro of 98.7FM Arizona Sports radio (multiple links to X) reports that the deal came together quickly, as talks between Burnes’ camp and the Snakes only started within the last three or four days. Diamondbacks chairman Ken Kendrick viewed signing Burnes as “too good of an opportunity to pass up,” as a source told Piecoro, and thus Kendrick okayed the biggest contract in franchise history.

Gambadoro writes that the contract contains “a significant amount of” deferred money, and a full no-trade clause covering just the 2025-26 seasons. If Burnes doesn’t opt out, Nightengale notes that Burnes’ no-trade protection is then limited to 14 teams over the final four seasons of the deal. Piecoro, meanwhile, goes into further detail regarding the deferred money. Per Piecoro, Burnes’s contract includes “a little north” of $60MM in deferred money, or between $10MM and $11MM per year deferred. Should Burnes decide to opt out following the 2026 campaign, the more than $20MM in deferred money accrued during the first two years of the deal would then need to be paid out within the following year.

Earlier this offseason, Blake Snell landed a $182MM guarantee from the Dodgers ahead of his age-32 season, and a look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker reveals that Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom have all signed free agent contracts that guaranteed nine figures ahead of their age-32 campaigns or older. Burnes’ deal falls short of his previously-reported goal of matching the $245MM guarantee the Nationals offered to right-hander Stephen Strasburg during the 2019-20 offseason.

By total guarantee, Burnes’ contract lands close to the seven-year, $200MM prediction that MLBTR made at the start of the offseason as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where Burnes ranked second in the class behind only Juan Soto. A closer look at the deal reveals that Burnes followed in the footsteps of virtually every other pitcher this winter, however, and landed a deal that exceeds expectations. The $35MM average annual value of the deal dwarfs the $28.57MM AAV predicted by MLBTR and even matches Strasburg, while the opt-out opportunity provides its own value in the form of flexibility.

For the Diamondbacks, it’s a massive financial outlay that beats out Greinke’s aforementioned six-year, $206.5MM deal for the largest guarantee in franchise history. Setting a club record for total guarantee in free agency would be noteworthy for any club, but it’s especially surprising coming from an Arizona team that previously indicated that they planned to run a payroll for 2025 that more or less matched their 2024 figure. As noted by RosterResource, Arizona spent just $173MM on payroll in 2024 and after signing Burnes are projected for a $194MM payroll in 2025. That hike of more than $20MM brings payroll to a completely unprecedented level for the franchise after setting a record for payroll just last year. It’s hardly a secret that the club is trying to move on from left-hander Jordan Montgomery on the trade market this winter, but even if the club manages to shed the majority of his salary they’ll have still put themselves into uncharted territory financially by signing Burnes.

That’s not to say the risk is a poor one to take, of course. Burnes established himself as among the league’s very best starters with Milwaukee during the shortened 2020 campaign, where he broke out to finish sixth in NL Cy Young award voting. He followed that performance up by going out and winning the award the following year, and the four-time All-Star has been on the shortlist for the game’s top rotation arms ever since. Over the past five seasons, Burnes ranks fifth among qualified MLB starters in innings pitched, second in fWAR, fourth in ERA, sixth in FIP, and third in strikeouts. Of course, much of that is due to a dominant 2021 season that saw Burnes lead the sport in ERA (2.43), FIP (1.69), and strikeout rate (35.6%).

Some red flags have emerged in the right-hander’s profile since then, as he’s started to go deeper into games at the expense of rate-basis dominance. His fastball velocity isn’t quite at the level it was during his Cy Young-winning campaign, and his strikeout rate has declined in each of the past five seasons until it ultimately fell to a roughly league average 23.1% this year. On the other hand, that relatively pedestrian figure started to tick back up towards the end of the season, when he struck out 27.7% of opponents faced in September. While he’s not quite matched the dominance of his otherworldly 2021 campaign in the years since, his 3.08 ERA and 3.49 FIP in 590 innings over the last three seasons ultimately still cast him as a starter who is clearly capable of fronting a playoff-caliber rotation.

He’ll be tasked with doing exactly that in Arizona this year, as the Diamondbacks appear to be all-in after narrowly missing the playoffs in 2024 despite winning more games than the 84-win 2023 club that managed to secure the NL pennant. Burnes will pair nicely with longtime club ace Zac Gallen at the front of the rotation, with veterans Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodríguez bringing up the middle. Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson represent intriguing options at the back of the club’s rotation, as will Montgomery if he’s not traded before the start of the season. Overall, the club’s rotation mix is among the most robust in the league at the moment on paper and should help to support an offense that lost both Joc Pederson and Christian Walker to free agency this winter. The front office swung a trade to land first baseman Josh Naylor in hopes of helping to plug that hole, but the club nonetheless seems likely to lean heavily on its internal youngsters like Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, and top prospect Jordan Lawlar at the plate in 2025.

It’s unclear what’s in store for the Diamondbacks going forward this winter given their unprecedented current payroll commitments. The club has long been known to be pining after help at the back of its bullpen this winter, with a trade for Ryan Helsley or signing Kirby Yates among the potential options the club has reportedly considered. Another hitter would also make sense for the club after losing both Walker and Pederson to free agency, preferably a right-handed bat to complement a heavily left-handed lineup. With that being said, it’s entirely possible that the club won’t have room to make additional moves of significance without first shedding salary in the form of Montgomery or another potential trade candidate.

Because Burnes turned down the Orioles’ qualifying offer, Baltimore will receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2025 draft. Gaining what currently stands as the 30th overall selection isn’t a bad consolation prize for the Orioles, but since they had designs on retaining Burnes themselves, the O’s are still on the lookout to add more frontline pitching to their rotation.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the D-Backs were signing Burnes to a six-year, $210MM deal with an opt-out after year two. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the signing bonus and the salaries for the first two seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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