J.P. Howell To Exercise Player Option
Left-hander J.P. Howell will exercise his $6.25MM player option with the Dodgers, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). The 32-year-old Legacy Agency client will forgo free agency this offseason in order to return to the L.A. bullpen for a fourth consecutive season.
Howell is coming off an excellent season in the Dodgers’ bullpen, having logged a 1.43 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 60.3 percent ground-ball rate in 44 innings of work. His strong production continued what has been a dominant run since joining the Dodgers prior to the 2013 season, as Howell has compiled a brilliant 1.97 ERA in his 155 innings with Los Angeles.
That strong track track record makes it at least worth wondering if Howell could’ve landed a multi-year deal in a market that is thin on left-handed relievers with lengthy track records of success — Antonio Bastardo and Tony Sipp were likely his top competition — but it’s also probably fair to assume that he wouldn’t have received as large of an annual salary. And, there’s something to be said for returning to a familiar situation that has led to personal success and three consecutive division titles for the team.
Howell did have his struggles in 2015, specifically when it came to facing right-handed hitters. While he hadn’t dealt with platoon issues in his two prior years with the Dodgers, right-handed hitters knocked Howell around to the tune of a .318/.368/.455 batting line. Perhaps that split played a role in his decision to accept the option, although there’s certainly a case to be made that it was more a function of poor luck than anything skill-related. Right-handed hitters posted a sky-high .368 BABIP against Howell in 2015 that was worlds higher than his career mark of .293.
Howell’s return to Los Angeles means that he’ll again help serve as a bridge to one of the game’s best closers in the form of Kenley Jansen. Exactly which other names will constitute the back end of the Dodger bullpen is unclear, as the team has myriad options in the late innings. Luis Avilan and Ian Thomas serve as left-handed options to potentially complement Howell, while right-handers such as Chris Hatcher, Pedro Baez, Juan Nicasio and Yimi Garcia, among others, could constitute the right-handed setup crew. Of course, given the active nature of president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and GM Farhan Zaidi, it certainly won’t be surprising to see the Dodgers shuffle their relief corps, to some extent, by dealing some of those arms and possibly bringing in external help in order to solidify a bullpen that is deep in options but lacking in proven arms.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Padres Decline Cory Luebke’s Option
The Padres announced earlier today that they’ve declined their $7.5MM option on left-hander Cory Luebke in favor of a $1.75MM buyout. The news comes as no surprise, as Luebke hasn’t pitched since the 2012 season due to a pair of Tommy John surgeries that have derailed his once promising career. As Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune notes, Luebke’s most recent Tommy John comeback was halted when a flexor strain slowed him in Triple-A, and he eventually had surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow.
Luebke, though, has five-plus years of Major League service time and is therefore still under team control via arbitration. However, he’d have to make at least 80 percent of the $5.25MM that he earned in 2015, making it highly unlikely that the club would retain him via that process. It’s possible that Luebke could be passed through outright waivers, at which point his service time would afford him the right to elect free agency. San Diego could then work out a new minor league deal after that fact.
The Padres have interest in keeping Luebke around, it would seem, as MLB.com’s Corey Brock quotes GM A.J. Preller: “I think we’re going to talk to him about it and get his sense for it. As I explained to him, talking about our club and our needs, any left-handed pitching we’re going to be on the look for.” Luebke wasn’t surprised by the decision, he told Brock and Lin in their respective pieces, but the 30-year-old still hopes to return to the Padres for his age-31 season. “I still have a chance to do something special,” Luebke told Brock. “…I still believe there’s going to be a happy ending with all of this.”
Suffice it to say, this isn’t how the Padres expected Luebke’s four-year, $12MM contract to play out when they locked him up after a strong rookie season in 2011. Luebke logged a 3.29 ERA with 9.9 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 in 139 2/3 innings that season, and the modest $12MM guarantee on his four-year pact would’ve bought out a pair of pre-arb seasons as well as his first two arbitration years while giving San Diego control of his final arb year at $7.5MM and his first free agent year at $10MM. Had Luebke remained healthy for even a couple of years, he likely could’ve delivered more than $12MM worth of value, but he’s pitched just 31 Major League innings since signing at the end of Spring Training 2012. While the deal seemed club-friendly at the time, it serves as a reminder that even contracts that look to favor the team on the surface can ultimately result in misses.
Yankees Release Chris Martin To Pursue Opportunity In Japan; Bailey Elects Free Agency
7:47pm: Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that Martin signed a two-year, $1.7MM contract that contains $300K worth of performance bonuses (Twitter link).
5:51pm: The Yankees announced on Wednesday that they’ve released right-hander Chris Martin so that he can sign a contract with the Nippon Ham Fighters of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. The Yankees will receive $750K from the Fighters as compensation, while Martin, a client of SSG Baseball, will sign a contract of yet-unknown length and for yet-unknown salary. Additionally, the Yankees announced that Andrew Bailey has elected free agency after rejecting an outright assignment.
Martin, 29, logged 20 2/3 innings with the Yankees this season but recorded a disappointing 5.66 ERA. In 36 1/3 career innings between the Rockies and Yankees, Martin has a 6.19 ERA but a more encouraging 32-to-10 K/BB ratio in that time. Earlier this year, Ronald Blum of the Associated Press wrote about Martin’s unlikely journey to the big leagues, noting that the righty was playing slow-pitch softball and working in an appliance warehouse after he believed that a shoulder injury had ended his career. When his colleague broke out a catcher’s mitt one day, Martin threw to him and discovered his shoulder to be healthy, with his colleague, Jordan Bostick, telling Blum that Martin’s pitches “nearly took my thumb off.” Martin’s fascinating journey will now take another step, as he experiences baseball in a foreign country.
As for Bailey, the 31-year-old tossed 8 2/3 innings for the Yankees this season but allowed eight runs in that time. He’s spent the past two years in the Yankees’ minor league system, battling back from shoulder injuries that have halted the former Rookie of the Year and American League All Star’s career. Bailey notched a tidy 2.57 ERA with 10.8 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 in 35 innings across four minor league levels this season as he worked his way back to the Majors. He’ll hope for a more immediate opportunity in the Majors next year, though I’d imagine that he’ll need to sign a minor league pact and hope to break camp with a club in Spring Training.
Nationals Hire Dusty Baker As Manager
NOV. 4: Baker’s contract is a two-year, $4MM contract that comes along with $3MM worth of incentives, Nightengale now reports (via Twitter).
NOV. 3, 9:48am: Baker will be paid “less than half” of his old salary (reportedly around $3.5MM) with the Reds, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. His contract does, however, contain “substantial incentives.”
7:05am: The Nationals have officially announced the hiring of Dusty Baker to “a multi-year contract.” It will reportedly guarantee two seasons of salary.
While Baker had been considered one of two finalists to take over the Nats dugout, the club was reportedly set to go instead with Bud Black. Indeed, Black and the Nats are said to have agreed to move forward with a relationship before contract negotiations stalled. Black was reportedly shocked at Washington’s first offer, which was for one year and $1.6MM. Washington then increased its offer to two years at a “lowball” salary, but talks never gained traction.
In Baker, 66, the Nationals are getting an amply experienced skipper — as they said they hoped to do in undertaking the search. Baker has previously been in charge of the field operations of the Giants (1993 to 2002), Cubs (2003 to 2006), and Reds (2008 to 2013). With three National League manager of the year awards already in his trophy case, Baker will look to guide D.C. to his first-ever World Series crown as a skipper.
Baker has piloted his teams to an overall record of 1,671 wins against 1,504 losses. He secured division championships at each stop, five in total, and led teams into the post-season seven times. Baker was at the helm of the Giants for their 2002 run to the World Series, which the club dropped in seven games.
Long before he became one of the league’s higher-profile skippers, Baker was an accomplished outfielder in the majors. He played 19 total seasons, spending time with the Braves, Dodgers, Giants, and Athletics while compiling a lifetime .278/.347/.432 batting line with 242 home runs. Baker compiled just under forty wins above replacement in his playing career and appeared in the World Series three times.
“We were looking for a manager to help us achieve our ultimate goal of competing for a World Series championship,” managing owner Ted Lerner said in a prepared statement. “During our broad search process we met with many qualified candidates, and ultimately it was clear that Dusty’s deep experience was the best fit for our ballclub.”
President and GM Mike Rizzo also put his name to a statement in the release. “In getting to know Dusty and identifying what we wanted in the next on-field leader of our team,” he said, “we are excited to have him on board. Dusty’s experience, as a winning player, coach, and manager, is vast and varied. We are excited to bring him to Washington and put his steady demeanor, knowledge and many years in the game to work in our favor. I think I speak for the entire organization when I say I am very much looking forward to working with him.”
While the organization was said to have been impressed with Baker from the start, the very public breakdown with Black marks an ugly start to the offseason. Rizzo and the Nats have had some issues in the dugout in recent years. Jim Rigglemen resigned in the middle of the 2011 season in protest over his lack of an extension. The club had a fairly smooth run with Davey Johnson, though even in his case there was a long delay in reaching a new deal after the breakout 2012 season. And the team’s most recent skipper, Matt Williams, was roundly criticized before being fired at the end of 2015.
The Nats can be hopeful that Baker will help to stabilize things after the organization endured a messy 2015. He is, after all, deeply experienced and comes with a reputation as a first-class players’ manager. Motivating players and managing clubhouse personalities is a key part of the job, of course, and arguably one where Williams failed.
On the other hand, Baker has long been a prime analytical example of in-game decisionmaking problems. As Neil Weinberg wrote near the end of Baker’s tenure in Cincinnati, his lineup construction, bullpen management, and proclivity to bunt all can and have been questioned. And Baker was blamed in many quarters for over-using young arms with the Cubs, though it’s hard to imagine that becoming an issue in D.C., which drew fire for its late-season shutdown of Stephen Strasburg.
It’s not clear yet whether Baker’s approach has evolved as he takes up his fourth big league managerial position. There have been suggestions that he’s worked to learn more about modern analytical thinking, though we’ll need to await his comments and actions to know more. Rizzo has never hired a sabermetric darling as his club’s skipper, though it’s worth wondering whether he and Baker will work to correct some of the late-inning pen usage issues that cropped up this year under Williams.
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported that Baker would be offered the job last night, and said early this morning that agreement appeared imminent. Nightengale tweeted that it was a two-year deal. The TalkNats.com blog first reported issues in the contract negotiations. Heyman reported that Baker was back in the mix. Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post (via Twitter), Bob Nightengale of USA Today (on Twitter and in this post), and Scott Miller of Bleacher Report (in a tweet) all reported on the details of talks with Black.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Indians Decline Ryan Raburn’s Option
The Indians announced that they’ve declined their $3MM club option on Ryan Raburn for the 2016 season. The outfielder will instead be paid a $100K buyout and hit the open market.
Raburn, 35 next April, will be cut loose despite an outstanding season in which he batted .301/.393/.543 with eight home runs in 201 plate appearances. Raburn’s gaudy numbers are the result of extreme platooning; he saw just 25 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season but picked up 176 PAs against lefties, raking to the tune of a .325/.415/.589 batting line when holding the platoon advantage. In fact, Raburn was so potent against lefties in 2015 that only Nelson Cruz, Mike Trout and Joey Votto ranked above him in weighted runs created plus (wRC+), per Fangraphs (minimum 150 plate appearances).
Though he’s no longer an option at second base as he was earlier in his career — just 17 innings there since Opening Day 2013 — Raburn will draw plenty of interest as a platoon corner outfield option on the open market this winter. He’s hit lefties well throughout his entire career, batting .264/.339/.487 over the life of a 10-year Major League career.
Via MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (Twitter link), president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti offered the following statement on the Raburn decision: “I think there were a lot of factors that went into play with the decision. I don’t think any one carried the day. It doesn’t take away from what Ryan accomplished and the success he’s had with us. We just felt, given the timing of where we are right now, we just wanted to try to have a little more flexibility as we head into the offseason.”
White Sox Decline Option On Alexei Ramirez
The White Sox have declined their $10MM club option on shortstop Alexei Ramirez, the team announced. Instead, Chicago will pay him a $1MM buyout.
Ramirez represented one of the most difficult option decisions in this year’s market. The 34-year-old veteran has been a solid contributor for years in Chicago, and the organization has needs all over its infield. Now, Chicago figures to be in the market for a shortstop to help bridge the gap to top prospect Tim Anderson.
As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained in his offseason outlook piece on the club, Ramirez may not be worth the $9MM spread between his value and the option price, but he could earn something close to it as a free agent. He’s coming off of a disappointing, .249/.285/.357 season, with declining defensive metrics. But he had been a consistent two-to-four WAR performer for many seasons before (even while generally carrying slightly below-average batting lines).
Teams looking for additions at short can now consider Ramirez alongside the rest of a market that isn’t exactly bursting with sure things. Ian Desmond will no doubt draw the most interest, with Asdrubal Cabrera also a reasonably young option. Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins figure to be the most appealing options among the older players available.
Angels Decline Option On David Murphy
The Angels have declined their $7MM club option on outfielder David Murphy, Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports on Twitter. Instead, he’ll receive a $500K buyout.
It’s not terribly surprising to see the move. Murphy, 34, remains a useful player, and the Angels have deep pockets, but that price tag always seemed a bit steep given the team’s needs and desire to stay below the luxury tax line.
Murphy came to Los Angeles at the trade deadline, as did fellow veteran outfielders Shane Victorino and David DeJesus. But Murphy saw more action than the others.
He ultimately slashed .283/.318/.421 in 391 plate appearances on the year, with ten home runs, but put up better numbers in the first half with the Indians. Murphy saw virtually no action against lefties last year and has rather severe career platoon splits.
Now that he’s set to return to the open market, Murphy will join a group of other left-handed-hitting, non-premium outfielders that includes Gerardo Parra and Alejandro De Aza. Los Angeles could still utilize some form of platoon arrangement in left, as it did down the stretch, but will surely be interested in testing the top of the market first. Indeed, it cleared the way for that possibility by passing on Murphy’s option.
Royals’ Decline Mutual Options On Rios, Guthrie
Fresh off of their World Series triumph, the Royals will open their offseason by bidding adieu to outfielder Alex Rios and righty Jeremy Guthrie. The players officially became free agents today, per an MLBPA press release.
As had been expected, Kansas City declined its mutual options over both, Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Start tweets. Rios’s option was valued at $12.5MM, with a $1.5MM buyout, while Guthrie will receive a $3.2MM buyout on a $10MM option.
Rios, 34, had a down year after joining the Royals last winter as a free agent. He slashed just .255/.287/.353 in 411 plate appearances, swiping nine bases and contributing four home runs.
Guthrie, on the other hand, came to the Royals via trade and then re-signed before the 2013 season. His deal was restructured last January to defer some of his 2014 salary back to the end of the end of the deal, with the mutual option and buyout accomplishing the task. The 36-year-old struggled to a 5.95 ERA in 148 1/3 innings this year, allowing a league-high 29 home runs in the process. That performance eliminated any possibility that the mutual option would be exercised.
Zack Greinke Opts Out Of Contract
Dodgers righty Zack Greinke has officially opted out of his contract with the Dodgers, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports on Twitter. The widely-expected move puts him onto the open market as one of the league’s most appealing free agents.
Greinke signed with Los Angeles as a free agent before the 2013 season, locking up a $147MM guarantee over six seasons. That was a nice enough payday as it was, but his representatives at Excel Sports Management were also wise to negotiate a provision allowing the veteran to opt out after the 2015 season. He’ll give up a guarantee of three years and $71MM, but Greinke figures to earn quite a bit more than that on the open market.
While Greinke is now 32 years of age, he’s also coming off of a sublime 2015 campaign. He led the league with a 1.66 ERA over 222 2/3 frames. Greinke retired 8.1 batters per nine via strikeout and induced a 48.0% groundball rate while permitting only 1.6 BB/9 and a league-low 0.844 WHIP.
There were some fortunate elements to Greinke’s campaign, to be sure. He allowed a .228 BABIP, 86.5% strand rate, and 7.3% HR/FB rate, all of which were on the beneficial side as against his career norms. Unsurprisingly, ERA estimators did not quite support the incredible run prevention that resulted.
That’s not to take away from Greinke’s accomplishment or his value. He’s long been one of the league’s better pitchers, and always seemed destined to opt out and cash in. But it’s fair to say, too, that he timed his career-best season perfectly.
Padres Exercise Option On Benoit, Decline Barmes’ Option
7:42pm: Benoit’s option is actually for $7.5MM and carried a $1MM buyout as opposed to $8MM with a $1.5MM buyout, according to MLB.com’s Corey Brock. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets that the buyout on the option could’ve escalated based on games finished, but the acquisition of Craig Kimbrel, of course, kept that from happening.
6:17pm: The Padres announced (Twitter link) that they’ve exercised their $8MM club option on right-hander Joaquin Benoit and declined their $2MM club option on Clint Barmes. Benoit’s option came with a $1.5MM buyout, meaning the decision essentially boiled down to whether or not the club valued him on a one-year, $6.5MM contract. Barmes will be paid a $200K buyout instead of the $2MM value of his option. I explored both situations recently while previewing the Padres’ offseason, noting that these outcomes were likely.
Benoit, 38, posted a stellar 2.34 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 46.3 percent ground-ball rate in 65 1/3 innings for the Friars in 2015. Detractors will note that both his strikeout and walk rates trended in the wrong direction, and his velocity declined a bit, while ERA estimators like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all feel that Benoit’s ERA is due to rise into the mid-3.00s. However, Benoit’s been able to maintain better-than-average marks in BABIP and strand rate, helping him to continually outperform said metrics.
As I noted in the above-linked offseason outlook, by exercising Benoit’s option, the Padres are effectively raising their payroll north of their 2015 Opening Day mark despite the fact that they have quite a bit of work to do this winter. Between Benoit, Matt Kemp, James Shields, Jedd Gyorko, Melvin Upton and Alexi Amarista, the team already has $82.25MM committed to the 2016 payroll. That doesn’t include significant arbitration raises to Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Yonder Alonso, Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks and league-minimum players to round out the roster, which could bring the total to as much as $112MM.
Barmes, on the other hand, batted .232/.281/.353 in 224 plate appearances with the Padres in 2015. Of course, offense has never been Barmes’ calling card; he’s been best-known for his defensive prowess at shortstop for much of his career. Defensive metrics such as Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating indicated that the 36-year-old’s glovework took a step backward this year, but his strong track record in that regard should lead to some interest on the free agent market this winter as Barmes prepares for his age-37 season.