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Possible Super Two Players For 2012

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The cutoff for super two players will be two years and 146 days of service time after the 2011 season, according to preliminary internal studies by the agency CAA (Twitter link). This would represent a decidedly late cutoff, especially compared to last year, when two years and 122 days of service was enough for players to head to arbitration an extra time. The possible 2.146 cutoff is subject to change, depending on callups and demotions, but here's a preliminary list of players who could qualify for super two status if they accumulate a full year of service time in 2011 (Opening Day service time noted).

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the service time info.

When Sellers Start Selling

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Now that the usual flurry of late-spring trades is over, the next phase of trading will occur this summer, when contenders are looking to supplement their rosters with players from teams that have realized they aren't going to win this year. 

MLBTR's Tim Dierkes recently previewed trade candidates for the National and American leagues, so we have a sense of which players will become available. But when will the trading start in earnest? Let's look back at recent seasons to determine when sellers start selling.

In 2008, the selling began in earnest in early July when the Indians sent C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers on July 7th. Not to be outdone, the Cubs acquired Rich Harden from the A's the next day, adding a second elite starter to the NL Central and considerable drama to the playoff race.

The Pirates started selling early in 2009, when they sent Nate McLouth to Atlanta on June 3rd. It wasn't until later in the month that the Indians sent Mark DeRosa to St. Louis and the selling continued.

Last year, the Indians were involved in an early trade again, though it wasn't with a contender in this case. They sent Russell Branyan to Seattle on June 26th, nine days after the selling began. Arizona made the first of their many trades on June 15th when they dealt Conor Jackson to Oakland. The major trades began in early July when the Mariners sent Cliff Lee to the Rangers on th 9th.

It only takes one team to get things started early, but recent history shows that we should expect the sellers to start selling after the June draft and before the All-Star break.

Completed $100MM+ Contracts

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The nine-figure contract is still a relatively new phenomenon in baseball. There have only been 26 contracts worth $100MM or more given out in baseball history, and we're just now starting to see the first wave of those deals expire. Here are the eight such contracts that have expired…

  • Alex Rodriguez (ten years, $252MM) – A-Rod originally signed this deal with the Rangers, then opted out of the last three years and $81MM while with the Yankees. He hit .304/.400/.591 and won three MVP awards during the seven years of the deal, then landed another ten-year contract worth $275MM.
  • Derek Jeter (ten years, $189MM) – The Yankees' captain hit .310/.380/.445 during this contract, then signed another three-year pact worth $51MM this past offseason.
  • Manny Ramirez (eight years, $160MM) – Manny spend the vast majority of this contract with the Red Sox, hitting .315/.415/.595 in the process. He then signed a two-year deal worth $45MM.
  • Mike Hampton (eight years, $121MM) – This deal didn't go as well as the first three; Hampton pitched to a 4.81 ERA in 147 starts, missing time with numerous injuries. He spent most of the contract with the Braves after originally signing it with the Rockies.
  • Jason Giambi (seven years, $120MM) – Giambi's time with New York was tainted by injury and PED controversy, but he still hit an impressive .260/.404/.521.
  • Ken Griffey Jr. (nine years, $112.5MM) – Another big money deal marred by injury, The Kid hit .269/.361/.510 almost entirely with the Reds during the contract.
  • Kevin Brown (seven years, $105MM) – Brown dealt with some injuries during the life of the contract, but pitched to a 3.23 ERA for the Dodgers and Yankees before retiring.
  • Albert Pujols (seven years, $100MM) – The guaranteed portion of this deal is over,though the Cardinals exercised their $16MM club option to keep him around this season. Pujols hit .334/.443/.635 with three MVP awards during the first seven seasons of the contract.

Carlos Beltran's seven-year, $119MM deal with the Mets will expire after season. Todd Helton's nine-year, $141.5MM deal with the Rockies would have expired as well, but he agreed to a restructured deal last March that tacked on two guaranteed years in exchange for a lower salary in 2011. 

Cot's Baseball Contract was used for this post.

How Teams Obtained Their Current Closers

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The day before the season started, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith looked at how each team acquired their Opening Day starter. Let's fast forward to the end of the game, and do the same for each team's current (not necessarily Opening Day) closer…

Trades (10)

Free Agent Signings (10)

  • Francisco Cordero, Reds – Signed a contract worth $46MM over four years in November 2007.
  • Francisco Rodriguez, Mets – Signed a contract worth $37MM over three years in December 2008.
  • Brandon Lyon, Astros – Signed a contract worth $15MM over three years in December 2009.
  • Jose Valverde, Tigers – Signed a contract worth $14MM over two years in January 2010.
  • Brian Fuentes, Athletics – Signed a contract worth $10.5MM over two years in January 2011.
  • J.J. Putz, Diamondbacks – Signed a contract worth $10MM over two years in December 2010.
  • Kevin Gregg, Orioles – Signed a  contract worth $10MM over two years in January 2011.
  • Jose Contreras, Phillies – Signed a contract worth $5.5MM over two years in November 2010. Originally signed with Philadelphia in January 2010.
  • Ryan Franklin, Cardinals – Signed a contract worth $1MM over one year in January 2007. Franklin has since signed two extensions to remain in St. Louis.
  • John Axford, Brewers – Signed a minor league contract in March 2008. 

Draft Picks (5)

  • Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers – Selected in the second round of the 2002 draft.
  • Craig Kimbrel, Braves – Selected in the third round of the 2008 draft.
  • Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox – Selected in the fourth round of the 2003 draft.
  • Jordan Walden, Angels – Selected in the 12th round of the 2006 draft.
  • Brian Wilson, Giants – Selected in the 24th round of the 2003 draft.

International Free Agent Signings (2)

  • Carlos Marmol, Cubs – Signed as an amateur free agent in July 1999.
  • Mariano Rivera, Yankees – Signed as an amateur free agent in February 1990.

Rule 5 Draft Picks (1)

  • Joakim Soria, Royals – Selected from the Padres in December 2006. 

A few of these guys are just temporary fill-ins. Andrew Bailey (draft pick), David Aardsma (trade), and Brad Lidge (trade) will take over for Fuentes, League, and Contreras, respectively, once healthy. The Blue Jays haven't had a save opportunity yet, so we don't know for sure who will fill in for the injured Frank Francisco (trade). The Rays haven't had a save opportunity yet either, and we don't know if Joel Peralta (free agent), Kyle Farnsworth (free agent), Jake McGee (draft pick), or someone else will get the call. 

Team Facebook/Twitter/RSS

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If you prefer your MLBTR fix limited to only your favorite team, we've got you covered.  Below are links to our team Facebook, Twitter, and RSS pages and feeds.

AL East

AL Central

AL West

NL East

NL Central

NL West

Transactions only: Twitter / RSS

MLBTR’s Agency Database

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MLBTR's Agency Database is only getting better, as we're making additions and changes every week.  Bookmark it today!

Currently we're trying to determine the representation for Tim Collins, Nathan Adcock, Jay Gibbons and Tom Wilhelmsen.  If you represent any of these players, please email mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com!  Also, if you see a 40-man roster or top prospect client of yours who is not in the database, emails are welcome.

Major Arbitration Paydays For 2012

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Last month we looked at the best players who will be arbitration eligible for the first time in 2012, including Andrew McCutchen, Clayton Kershaw, and David Price.  While the top names in that group will be well-compensated, none project to earn $10MM or more for the '12 season.  Which arbitration eligible players are headed toward that level of a payday?

  • Jered Weaver, Angels.  Even after losing an arbitration case to the Angels, Weaver stands to jump past $10MM with another $3MM+ raise.
  • Hunter Pence, Astros.  Pence won his arbitration case against the Astros, netting an extra $1.75MM.  Another $3MM+ jump will put him right around $10MM, and he's arbitration eligible twice more if he's not non-tendered.
  • Matt Garza, Cubs.  He's at $5.95MM currently, so a jump to $10MM seems unlikely.  He'll be arbitration eligible again after '12.  Jeremy Guthrie and Joe Saunders are working from similar salaries, while Francisco Liriano is over $1MM behind.
  • John Danks, White Sox.  Danks is paid $6MM this year, so he and Garza face a similar challenge in trying to make the leap to $10MM.
  • Carlos Quentin, White Sox.  Much is riding on Quentin's 2010.  If he has another 2008 he could get to $8MM or more and the White Sox won't mind.
  • Andre Ethier, Dodgers.  Ethier sees a non-tender after the season as a possibility, but that seems unlikely.  But whether it's the Dodgers or another club, Ethier should get around $12MM next year.
  • Matt Kemp, Dodgers.  Kemp will be coming from a $6.95MM salary, so he should also see his first $10MM+ payday.
  • Tim Lincecum, Giants.  Extension talks between Lincecum and the Giants are not expected during the season.  He'll be building on a $13MM salary, which might be even higher had he not signed a two-year deal previously.  This is a case to watch next offseason.  Lincecum's teammate Jonathan Sanchez probably won't make it to $10MM next year but he could be close.
  • Shin-Soo Choo, Indians.  Choo is operating from a strong $3.95MM first-time salary, which he could double next time around.  Nelson Cruz will operate from a slightly lower salary.
  • Luke Scott, Orioles.  Scott is not someone you usually think of as a $10MM player, but he's already at $6.4MM.  Another nice year will put him in the eight-figure range.    
  • Cole Hamels, Phillies.  Like Lincecum, Hamels signed a multiyear extension but left at least one arbitration year open.  He's already at $9.5MM this year.  Next year might cost $12-13MM, and then each free agent year should be priced at $20MM+. Hamels hopes to stay with the Phillies.
  • Mike Napoli, Rangers.  Napoli is already at $5.8MM, so the Rangers will have a tough decision as to whether to tender him a contract for '12.
  • Delmon Young, Twins.  Young will be paid $5.375MM this year, and another 100 RBI year should push him close to $10MM.

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.

MLBTR Forum Moderator Position

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We are seeking a head moderator to be active in regulating our forums. Duties include approving new users on the back end and completing other related tasks on a daily basis. Past bulletin board administrative experience is preferred.

If you're interested, please send a short email to mlbtrmods@gmail.com explaining your credentials for and interest in the position. Unfortunately, we will not be able to respond to all applicants.

Your Alphabet Of 2011 Storylines

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With Opening Day so close I'm having hot dog-based fever dreams, I decided to face a pair of problems squarely. One is how to properly organize my thoughts about the critical storylines we'll be following on MLB Trade Rumors this season. The other? How to entertain my daughter, who just turned one. Let's face it: after a while, even an infant turns to you with a look that says: "I get it. Pat the Bunny is both a proper name and a suggestion. What else you got?"

So to help her to sleep at night, let's take a look at what will keep the rest of us up, furiously refreshing the page:

A is for Albert, El Hombre's contract year

Who will show him the money? Should Cardinals fans have fear?

B is for Beltran, the limping Met in right

Look for New York to deal him to someone in the fight

C is for Crawford, who Sox got with late swoop

Did Boston overpay? And how do Rays regroup?

D is for Doug Davis, a story sweet and true

He'll soon help some rotation, and tears will flow on cue

E is for Ethier, who Dodgers may soon deal

While stardom is elusive, his production is for real

F is for Fielder, first baseman oversized

Who may lead Brew to pennant, then be free agent prize

G is for Gerrit, Cole should go first in draft

Consensus is a different pick would be extremely daft

H is for Houston, where Drayton's leaving town

New boss must reverse trend of Astros heading down

I is for Iannetta, catcher a mile high

Will he fulfill potential? Or will Rockies say goodbye?

J is for Javy, the once (and future?) stud

Will move from Yanks to Marlins revive this Gotham dud?

K is for K-Rod, will his huge option vest?

If he finishes 55, the Mets have failed their test

L is for Lee, last winter's big to-do

If Cliff's performance dips, how soon will Philly boo?

M is for McCourt, whose divorce battle rages

Will it affect the Dodgers' ability to pay their wages?

N is for Nathan, who's back from elbow woes

A large amount of money will ride on how he throws

O is for Orioles, with new faces from the past

In league's toughest division, they still should finish last

P is for Pirates, where hope is finally seen

Will record, after years of losing, mirror Charlie Sheen?

Q is for Quentin, Pale Hose need him to bash

With strong walk year, by winter's end he'll be awash in cash

R is for Reyes, a decent bet to go

A bidding war this summer will deal Mets fans a blow

S is for Sabathia, opt-out can make him free

But who'll outbid the Yankees? No one that we can see

T is for Tampa, in division nonpareil

Rays spent sparingly this winter, but what they spent, spent well

U is for Utley, who battles Wounded Knee

If he cannot recover, who will his stand-in be?

V is for Victor, who Tigers signed for bat

But now they'll catch Avila? I mean, what's up with that?

W is for Wilpon, who faces massive debts

The smart money says he will be forced to sell the Mets

X is for Xavier, left fielder at Chase 

Expect him to have 25 home run pace

Y is for Yankees, and here is some advice

When you deal them a pitcher, make Montero the price

Z is for Zambrano, half-pitcher and half-storm

Says here that he will recapture his earlier ace form

Half Of Opening Day Starters Were First Rounders

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Even though former top picks such as Zack Greinke, Adam Wainwright and Stephen Strasburg are currently sidelined, a substantial number of one-time first rounders will open their teams' seasons this week. Half of baseball's 30 Opening Day starters were once first round selections.

Five Opening Day starters - Felix Hernandez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Fausto Carmona, Livan Hernandez and Edinson Volquez – were not drafted, which means 60% of the starters who were at one point draft eligible came from the first round (15/25). As Keith Law recently pointed out at ESPN.com, "the vast majority of impact players" who enter pro ball through the draft were selected early on.

Of the 15 first rounders to become 2011 Opening Day starters, David Price (2007) was drafted most recently and Chris Carpenter (1993) was drafted longest ago. The opening round of the 2006 draft produced the most Opening Day starters, with four. Luke Hochevar (1st overall), Clayton Kershaw (7th), Tim Lincecum (10th) and Ian Kennedy (21st) all went early on in the '06 draft.

Roy Halladay (1995), C.C. Sabathia (1998), Brett Myers (1999), Jeremy Guthrie (2002), Tim Stauffer (2003), Justin Verlander (2004), Jered Weaver (2004), Ricky Romero (2005) and Mike Pelfrey (2005) join Price, Carpenter, Hochevar, Kershaw, Lincecum and Kennedy in the group of first rounders who got the Opening Day nod this year.

This isn’t to suggest that becoming an Opening Day starter is the standard that draft prospects like Gerrit Cole, Jed Bradley and Sonny Gray should aspire to. Clearly, there are more effective ways of measuring a pitcher’s value than the day on which his manager asks him to throw his first pitch. But it’s worth noting that so many Opening Day starters come from the first round and it'll be worth watching which starters get selected early this June.

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