Uncategorized News & Rumors

When signing players to long-term deals, teams are forced to look many years into the future.  Let's take a look at which player is locked up the longest for each club (guaranteed salaries only).

• Angels: Vernon Wells, paid $21MM in 2014.
• Astros: Wandy Rodriguez, paid $13MM in 2013.
• Athletics: Trevor Cahill, paid $12MM in 2015.
• Blue Jays: Jose Bautista, paid $14MM in 2015.  Ricky Romero, paid $7.5MM in 2015.
• Braves: Dan Uggla, paid $13MM in 2015.
• Brewers: Ryan Braun, paid $12MM in 2015.
• Cardinals: Matt Holliday, paid $17MM in 2016.
• Cubs: Alfonso Soriano, paid $18MM in 2014.
• Diamondbacks: Justin Upton, paid $14.5MM in 2015.
• Dodgers: Chad Billingsley, paid $12MM in 2014.
• Giants: Barry Zito, paid $20MM in 2013.
• Indians: Travis Hafner, paid $13MM in 2012.
• Mariners: Felix Hernandez, paid $20MM in 2014.
• Marlins: Hanley Ramirez, paid $16MM in 2014.
• Mets: Johan Santana, paid $25.5MM in 2013.  Jason Bay, paid $16MM in 2013.
• Nationals: Jayson Werth, paid $21MM in 2017.
• Orioles: Nick Markakis, paid $15MM in 2014.
• Padres: Jason Bartlett and Orlando Hudson, paid $5.5MM in 2012. 
• Phillies: Ryan Howard, paid $25MM in 2016.
• Pirates: Kevin Correia, paid $3MM in 2012.  Matt Diaz, paid $2MM in 2012.
• Rangers: Adrian Beltre, paid $18MM in 2015.
• Rays: Wade Davis, paid $4.8MM in 2014.
• Reds: Jay Bruce, paid $12.5MM in 2016.
• Red Sox: Adrian Gonzalez, paid $21.5MM in 2018.
• Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki, paid $14MM in 2020.
• Royals: Billy Butler, paid $8MM in 2014.
• Tigers: Miguel Cabrera, paid $22MM in 2015.
• Twins: Joe Mauer, paid $23MM in 2018.
• White Sox: Alexei Ramirez, paid $10MM in 2015.
• Yankees: Alex Rodriguez, paid $20MM in 2017.

The Rockies have the last player under contract at the moment, with Tulowitzki's deal running through the 2020 season (and there's a club option for 2021).  Meanwhile the future is wide open for the Pirates, who are committed to just $5MM in 2012 salaries and nothing beyond next year.

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Of the 1600 players selected in the 1991 draft, five are still on Major League rosters. Each one of the remaining players was chosen after Brien Taylor, the high school left-hander who went first overall to the Yankees and never appeared in a big league game. The Scott Boras client signed for $1.55MM and showed star promise through two minor league seasons, but he injured his shoulder and remains one of two first overall selections never to appear in the majors.

By the time Taylor tore up his shoulder in a December 1993 fight, others from the draft, including its top player, had made their MLB debuts. Manny Ramirez, the 13th overall selection, hit .170 with a pair of home runs in his 22-game cameo with the Indians in 1993. Over the course of the next 18 seasons, Ramirez added 553 home runs and hit .313/.412/.587 – Hall of Fame numbers that may never be enshrined in Cooperstown because of his two PED suspensions. 

Ramirez’s retirement means Trever Miller (41st overall, Tigers), LaTroy Hawkins (7th round, Twins), Derek Lowe (8th round, Mariners), Mike Cameron (18th round, White Sox) and Jason Isringhausen (44th round, Mets) are the only remaining big leaguers from the ’91 draft. Ron Mahay (18th round, Red Sox) is looking to join them in the majors, though he’ll have to crack the D’Backs’ roster first.

Recent retirees Mike Sweeney (10th round, Royals) and Mark Grudzielanek (11th round, Expos) played last year, so they qualify as near misses. Two other notable big leaguers were selected in '91, only to re-enter the draft and sign later. Instead of signing with the Blue Jays, Ryan Franklin (25th round) postponed his pro debut and didn’t sign until the Mariners selected him the following year. Like Franklin, Nomar Garciaparra (5th round, Brewers) did not sign until later, though he was selected in ’91.

Jon Lieber, Brad Radke, Jason Schmidt, Shawn Green, Cliff Floyd, Aaron Sele and Paul Byrd are among the other successful big leaguers to emerge from the ’91 draft. Last of all, the Astros selected high school right-hander Brian Hudson with the 1600th overall pick. Curiously enough, he finished with precisely the same number of big league appearances as top pick Brien Taylor: zero.

MLBTR's Mike Axisa looked at the largest contracts by service time a year ago; it's time for an update.

Less Than One Year
Position Player: Ryan Braun. Eight years, $45MM.
Pitcher: C.C. Sabathia. Four years, $9.5MM.

One To Two Years
Position Player: Chris Young. Five years, $28MM.
Pitcher: Fausto Carmona. Four years, $15MM.

Two To Three Years
Position Player: Carlos Gonzalez. Seven years, $80MM.
Pitcher: Trevor Cahill.  Five years, $30.5MM.

Three To Four Years
Position Player: Albert Pujols. Seven years, $100MM.
Pitcher: Scott Kazmir. Three years, $28.5MM.

Four To Five Years
Position Player: Troy Tulowitzki. Ten years, $157.75MM.
Pitcher: Justin Verlander. Five years, $80MM.

Five To Six Years
Position Player: Derek Jeter. Ten years, $189MM.
Pitcher: Roy Oswalt. Five years, $73MM.

Six-plus Years
Position Player: Alex Rodriguez. Ten years, $275MM.
Pitcher: C.C. Sabathia. Seven years, $161MM.

Commentary…

• In the year since Mike's post, our Transaction Tracker shows 39 extensions for arbitration eligible players.  Three of those were record-breakers: Trevor Cahill jumped ahead of Yovani Gallardo and Ricky Romero, Carlos Gonzalez topped Hanley Ramirez, and Troy Tulowitzki replaced Miguel Cabrera.
• No new zero-to-one players signed multiyear deals.  If players such as Starlin Castro or Carlos Santana were to sign right now it'd still be tough to top Braun. 
• Brett Anderson and Wade Davis signed similar contracts in the one-to-two class, but neither beat Carmona.
• Kazmir's contract seems like an anomaly leading the three-to-four pitchers, with several two-to-three pitchers getting larger guarantees.  Kazmir's record was threatened this winter by Johnny Cueto's $27MM deal, though the two contracts cover different slices of the pitchers' careers.  Perhaps three-to-four is a no man's land for multiyear pitcher deals, as the pitcher is at that point willing to see what he'll get his first time through the arbitration process. 
• The free agent records set by Alex Rodriguez and C.C. Sabathia could be threatened this offseason by Albert Pujols and Sabathia again.

Baseball players, starting pitchers in particular, are a risk-averse bunch.  Given the choice between multiyear security and maximized earnings, they almost always choose the former.  You can't blame starting pitchers for wanting to lock in an eight-figure payday well before free agency, given the risk of a career-altering injury.  Still, I'm surprised that no ace starter has been willing to roll the dice and go year-to-year before hitting free agency in recent memory.

Here's the list of active starters who received Cy Young votes since 2007 and were willing to delay their own free agency with a multiyear contract:

• Felix Hernandez, C.C. Sabathia, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Cliff Lee, Trevor Cahill, Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Hudson, Josh Johnson, Roy Oswalt, Justin Verlander, Brett Myers, Bronson Arroyo, Matt Cain, Zack Greinke, Javier Vazquez, Dan Haren, Ervin Santana, Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Fausto Carmona, Jake Peavy, Brad Penny, Aaron Harang, Carlos Zambrano, Jeff Francis

Some were locked up well before free agency, while others signed extensions with just one year to go.  And the above list doesn't include guys like Ricky Romero, Gavin Floyd, Wandy Rodriguez, Johnny Cueto, Scott Baker, James Shields, Ricky Nolasco, and Yovani Gallardo.

Most top starters who didn't sign extensions and reached free agency as early as possible did so because of injuries, Erik Bedard for example.  Zambrano came very close, going to arbitration all three times and signing his five-year extension a few months before free agency.

A few frontline starters remain on the year-to-year path, such as David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Jered Weaver, and Francisco Liriano.  Weaver, a Scott Boras client, seems most likely to be doing so to maximize his earnings.  Nothing wrong with that, and we don't know what the Angels offered, if anything.  Weaver could be a 30-year-old free agent after the 2012 season, with over $20MM in arbitration earnings in his pocket.  John Danks, Matt Garza, Shaun Marcum, C.J. Wilson, and Jeremy Guthrie are also on the year-to-year track currently.

Though they signed multiyear deals, Tim Lincecum and Cole Hamels each left at least one arbitration year uncovered, as well as all free agent years.  They've got the best of both worlds, locking in over $20MM without delaying free agency.  Edwin Jackson isn't at their level, but he's another starter who snagged an eight-figure contract and remained on track for free agency as early as possible.

Tons of research goes into any free agent signing, given the amount of money at stake.  Still, one year later many have already gone sour.  A look at some of the regrettable $10MM+ contracts from the 2009-10 offseason…

• It feels too early to throw John Lackey into this discussion, as he ended up giving the Red Sox 215 decent innings last year.  But he does have a 4.83 ERA over the life of the contract.  The deal was frontloaded, so Lackey will be paid $61MM over 2011-14.
• If new Mets GM Sandy Alderson could reverse Omar Minaya's Jason Bay contract, I'm sure he would.  Bay is owed $48MM over the 2011-13 seasons, with the possibility of a $17MM club option vesting for 2014.  A concussion ended his '10 season on July 25th, and he began the '11 season on the DL for a strained ribcage.  Bay's Mets line still stands at .259/.347/.402.
• Chone Figgins' four-year, $36MM deal with the Mariners looked like a mild bargain at the time.  2010 was ugly, marked by an ill-advised position switch, a Don Wakamatsu altercation, and a batting average dip.  Only nine games in this year, Figgins has time to turn the contract around.
• Randy Wolf provided the Brewers with 215 2/3 innings of 4.17 ball last year, but as with Lackey more was expected.  Wolf's 5.9 K/9 was his worst since '04.  The Brewers are probably glad to have the rotation depth at this point, so maybe the $20.5MM owed to Wolf over 2011-12 doesn't bother them.
• At $7.25MM this year, Mike Cameron is an expensive fourth outfielder for the Red Sox.  They've got the payroll to tolerate the contract, and Cameron might be used more than most fourth outfielders.
• Fernando Rodney's two-year, $11MM pact with the Angels was panned at the time.  You can't blame Rodney for this one turning ugly; his 2010 numbers were pretty similar to his '09 contract year.
• The contracts for Jason Marquis, Mark DeRosa, and Mike Gonzalez also went sour in year one due to injuries.

If you're a regular MLBTR reader, you'll be familiar with our chats, our Week In Review posts and Mike Axisa's Baseball Blogs Weigh In feature. Here's some more detail on when you'll see our weekly features and exactly what to expect from them:

• MLBTR Chats – Come by every Wednesday at 2pm CDT to chat about the latest trades, signings and rumblings around the major leagues.
• Baseball Blogs Weigh In – Every Friday morning, Mike Axisa directs you to some of the best writing on baseball blogs around the web. Whether it's opinion, stats or something else entirely, you can connect to the best of the blogosphere once a week on MLBTR. If you want to send Mike a post of yours, reach him at: mike@riveraveblues.com.
• Week In Review – It's amazing how much happens in seven days. Every Sunday night, we summarize the week's biggest stories in our Week In Review posts.
• MLBTR Originals – We gather all our original analysis and reporting in one place every Sunday night.

Last offseason, two years and 122 days of service time was enough for super two status. It looks like players will need about three weeks more service time to qualify as super twos after the coming season, which means many players who won't qualify this year would have qualified last year. Keeping in mind that this list is subject to change until the season ends, here's a look at the players who may just miss super two status this offseason (Opening Day service time noted):

• Gerardo Parra, Diamondbacks, 1.145
• Jake Fox, Orioles, 1.145
• Nolan Reimold, Orioles, 1.144 (not currently on MLB roster)
• Eric Patterson, Padres, 1.144 (not currently on MLB roster)
• Darnell McDonald, Red Sox, 1.143
• Jason Jaramillo, Pirates, 1.138
• Tony Sipp, Indians, 1.138
• Kris Medlen, Braves, 1.137
• Ramiro Pena, Yankees, 1.137 (not currently on MLB roster)
• John Bowker, Pirates, 1.133
• Sean Rodriguez, Rays, 1.133
• Bobby Parnell, Mets, 1.132
• Jason Berken, Orioles, 1.132
• Shelley Duncan, Indians, 1.129
• Matt Wieters, Orioles, 1.129
• Brett Cecil, Blue Jays, 1.128
• Travis Snider, Blue Jays, 1.126
• Mitchell Boggs, Cardinals, 1.125
• Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks, 1.124
• Gordon Beckham, White Sox, 1.123
• Matt Joyce, Rays, 1.123
• Andrew McCutchen, Pirates, 1.123

Three players, Chris Davis and Derek Holland of the Rangers and, Tommy Hanson of the Braves entered the season with one year and 120 days of service.

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the service time info.

The cutoff for super two players will be two years and 146 days of service time after the 2011 season, according to preliminary internal studies by the agency CAA (Twitter link). This would represent a decidedly late cutoff, especially compared to last year, when two years and 122 days of service was enough for players to head to arbitration an extra time. The possible 2.146 cutoff is subject to change, depending on callups and demotions, but here's a preliminary list of players who could qualify for super two status if they accumulate a full year of service time in 2011 (Opening Day service time noted).

• Rick Porcello, Tigers, 1.170
• Kevin Jepsen, Angels, 1.169
• Matt Daley, Rockies, 1.166 (not currently on MLB roster)
• Steve Pearce, Pirates, 1.165
• Gregor Blanco, Royals, 1.164 (not currently on MLB roster)
• David Price, Rays, 1.164
• Jerry Blevins, Athletics, 1.162 
• Gio Gonzalez, Athletics, 1.162
• Luis Valbuena, Indians, 1.162 (not currently on MLB roster)
• Esmerling Vasquez, Diamondbacks, 1.162 (not currently on MLB roster)
• Brad Bergesen, Orioles, 1.160
• Garrett Jones, Pirates, 1.158
• Justin Germano, Indians, 1.155
• Will Venable, Padres, 1.155 
• Ryan Perry, Tigers, 1.154
• Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals, 1.154
• Landon Powell, Athletics, 1.153
• Ronald Belisario, Dodgers, 1.151 (though Belisario was on track to become a super two, he is on the restricted list, where he will not accrue service time).
• Royce Ring, Mariners, 1.151(not currently on MLB roster)
• Chris Coghlan, Marlins, 1.150
• Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks, 1.150
• Don Kelly, Tigers, 1.149
• Daniel Bard, Red Sox, 1.148
• Tyler Clippard, Nationals, 1.148
• Matt Palmer, Angels, 1.147 (not currently on MLB roster)
• Mitch Stetter, Brewers, 1.146

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the service time info.

Now that the usual flurry of late-spring trades is over, the next phase of trading will occur this summer, when contenders are looking to supplement their rosters with players from teams that have realized they aren't going to win this year. 

MLBTR's Tim Dierkes recently previewed trade candidates for the National and American leagues, so we have a sense of which players will become available. But when will the trading start in earnest? Let's look back at recent seasons to determine when sellers start selling.

In 2008, the selling began in earnest in early July when the Indians sent C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers on July 7th. Not to be outdone, the Cubs acquired Rich Harden from the A's the next day, adding a second elite starter to the NL Central and considerable drama to the playoff race.

The Pirates started selling early in 2009, when they sent Nate McLouth to Atlanta on June 3rd. It wasn't until later in the month that the Indians sent Mark DeRosa to St. Louis and the selling continued.

Last year, the Indians were involved in an early trade again, though it wasn't with a contender in this case. They sent Russell Branyan to Seattle on June 26th, nine days after the selling began. Arizona made the first of their many trades on June 15th when they dealt Conor Jackson to Oakland. The major trades began in early July when the Mariners sent Cliff Lee to the Rangers on th 9th.

It only takes one team to get things started early, but recent history shows that we should expect the sellers to start selling after the June draft and before the All-Star break.