Time for another video mailbag. Send your questions to mlbtraderumors2008@gmail.com.
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Radio Appearance, First-Ever MLBTR Chat
I’ve got a couple of fun mini-events on tap.
- I’ll be on Valparaiso Student Radio on Wednesday at about 9:15am CST. Listen live here. (Note: I originally wrote that this was today but it’s not).
- You can listen to my appearance University of Maryland Radio yesterday at this link.
- From 2-3pm CST, I’ll be doing the first-ever MLBTR chat. It’ll be right here on the site and you’ll be able to submit questions very easily. Don’t miss it!
Survey Results: PECOTA
I recently posted this survey question:
Sometimes, information from Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA player projection system is used on MLBTR. Should we continue to post this information?
Over 2,000 MLBTR readers responded; about 90% said yes, continue using it. The basic vibe of the comments was that more info can never hurt, even if we all acknowledge that a projection system isn’t gospel.
Many readers requested info explaining what PECOTA is and how it works. Wikipedia does a very nice job giving the basics. This is an oversimplification, but basically PECOTA projects a player’s future performance by looking at comparable players throughout baseball history.
How did PECOTA do trying to predict the 2007 season? It led all projection systems with a .451 correlation coefficient for pitchers. (A perfect set of predictions would have a coefficient of 1.0). PECOTA also had the highest correlation coefficient in predicting hitters for ’07, at .627. ZiPS, a free system from Baseball Think Factory, was close behind. As you can see, pitcher performance is very difficult to project.
Tim On WMUC Radio
I’ll be on University of Maryland radio (WMUC) today at 3:10pm CST. You can listen live here.
MLBTR Logo Contest
I had a small firm design the new MLBTR logo. They presented about a dozen and I chose my favorite. MLBTR readers were not terribly impressed by the new logo though. I want to keep an open mind, because I am not an artistic guy. I received several emails from people who thought they could do better. One person, Mo Ahmadieh, revised the logo in a way I thought made it better. Here is a look at that revision (click to enlarge).
I’ve decided to open this up and have a contest to design the best logo. The prize is $100 plus your name/design company mentioned in a post. Here’s what I’m looking for.
- It should be an original design – doesn’t have to look like the new blue logo or the current black and white one.
- It has to beat the logo shown in this post. I may still go with this one; I like it. In that case there would be no winner.
- Needs some kind of color. I like the blue used for this one, but I am open to other colors. Red, white, and blue together is not going to work though.
- Can’t use copyrighted photos (ie, MLB players).
- Needs a transparent background.
- Needs to have the full tagline.
- Size: 800×110 pixels.
- Email your entry to mlbtraderumors2008@gmail.com and enter as many as you’d like. Please get them in by end of day Friday. This should be fun.
Survey Results: Brian Roberts
Brian Roberts’ name came up often in our recent reader survey. It’s a love/hate thing – people either want more Roberts updates or none at all.
The Roberts frustration is not unlike our experiences with Erik Bedard and Johan Santana earlier this winter. Readers were happy to see those deals finalized; they dragged too long and many of the news items weren’t interesting.
One thing I can’t do is stop posting updates on the Roberts trade or any other predominant hot stove story. This site exists to provide the latest trade and signing news. If you’re sick of a certain deal it should be easy to glance at the headline and scroll right past it.
MLBTR Reader Survey
Thank you for reading MLBTradeRumors.com. I’ve created a brief six-question anonymous survey. I would appreciate it if you would take a couple of minutes to fill this out, as your feedback is incredibly valuable. Thanks.
MLB Roundup Video
Here’s a link to the latest installment of MLB Roundup, hosted by Stephanie Rosa. Topics this week are the Japan opener, velocity and pitch type data now at FanGraphs, and Jeff Ma in Tout Wars. I’m not in this episode, but maybe next week.
Speaking of which, hit me up with your hot stove questions at mlbtraderumors2008@gmail.com for next week’s video mailbag.
Recommended: RotoWorld Draft Guide
Aside from my own websites, I’ve been a regular contributor of fantasy baseball columns for RotoWorld over the past few years.
This year, I have joined forces with them for their Draft Guide, contributing a ton of articles and analysis. At just $14.99, this is hands down the best way to spend your fantasy baseball dollar. I know, because I’ve tried practically every $8 magazine and online service out there over the years. Those magazines go to press in early December – they’re mostly useless.
Projections, cheatsheets, player comments, AL/NL-only values, custom scoring, updates, feature articles, closer info, mock drafts, sleepers, busts….need I go on? The 2008 RotoWorld Draft Guide has it all. Hundreds of MLBTR readers have already purchased the RotoWorld Guide, and the response has been overwhelmingly positive.
9 Reasons General Managers Make the Decisions They Do
Guest article by David Chase of Brock for Broglio.
1. Skill Set
With more teams holding 12 pitchers instead of the traditional 11, those last 21-25 spots are increasingly vital. Specialists, who excel in one area (e.g., vs. LHP/RHP, defense, or speed) are more valuable than a player who might be just-ok in all aspects of the game.
2. Age
Players with good minor league track records, (pre age 26) will usually receive a “longer look” than veterans on the wrong side of the age curve. The prospective upside, and the value of cost-control, far outweighs the risk of underperformance; especially for teams with little chance at competing. Apparently, Sabean hasn’t gotten the memo yet.
3. Track Record
Often, fans overreact to down years. Most batting statistics don’t become reliable until 500 plate appearances. If a players on the right side of the age curve, and is relatively healthy, down years are usually only a product of luck. Don’t be surprised when your front office continues to give a player opportunity, at the expense of a utility player, who might’ve excelled in said players absence.
4. Observational Analysis
It’s not always about the statistics. Some players have talent that hasn’t materialized into production. Teams will continue to give raw athletes–whose tools rate well on their scout’s 20-80 scales–chances to succeed. The best organizations are those that are aware of the strengths and weaknesses of both evaluation methodologies, and integrate them seamlessly.
5. Service Time
Miguel Cabrera is likely to break the $200MM barrier; he earned a major league contract as soon as he deserved one. Other players are often not as lucky. There’s not much incentive for an organization to rush its prospects through the minor leagues. Being held down one additional year too many, can literally cost a player several guaranteed years and many millions.
6. Organizations Direction
It’s important for organizations to take a frank stance on whether or not they believe they can compete. Being lukewarm is far too costly. Opportunity is valuable; wasting it on expensive veterans that have no future is counterproductive. Successful minor leaguers–who’ve been neglected of opportunity–become valuable assets to teams not presently competing.
7. Risk Management
Developing major league prospects is a risky proposition; especially when those prospects can be traded for proven commodity. This ties in with #6; an average market team—that can compete–is wise to shed itself of its prospects and their inherit risk. Prospects have far more value to a team in a rebuilding cycle, which have no choice but to carry the burden of that risk.
8. It’s Not Always the GM
Sometimes a GM is merely a public figure for a decision they have no control over, or influence on. I read an article about a general manager who consistently refused to speak to a player’s agent out of lack of interest. The ambitious agent contacted the owner directly, and a deal was struck without the GMs consent. I wouldn’t be surprised if these types of scenarios are prevalent.
The pressure of instant success–from the group cutting the checks–can also influence the GM’s better judgment, and as a by-product; suppress the long term viability of the franchise.
9. Intangibles Matter
In an age where there’s seemingly less of a market for unquantifiable skill sets, devoted ballplayers, club house leaders, and hard workers still find themselves on 25 man rosters. Next time you wonder why Nick Punto is still employed; think of the intangibles he might bring to the table. Mike Sweeney is on the verge of a major league contract for no other reason.